Strategic Analysis: Headlines for the South West - RIG Meeting January 2011

Strategic Analysis: Headlines for the South West (but also a bit about the publicly available data sources we use…) Matt.Jago@ypla.gov.uk Championing Young People’s Learning

Introduction1. Annual Business Inquiry2. JSA Claimant Count3. Participation in education, employment & training by 16-18 year olds in England – DfE SFR 18/20104. National Employer Skills Survey5. ONS sub-national population projections

Annual Business Inquiry• Collects data from a sample of businesses to generate estimates of employee jobs by industry, geography, age gender, FT/PT, plus number of businesses by type• Can be accessed through the ONS NOMIS site – need a Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Notice• Survey, not a census, so is sometimes inaccurate & always a little imprecise• Doesn’t include sole traders or self employed people (eg. self employed hairdressers or trades-people)• Sample sizes at smaller geographies mean that confidence intervals are large below local authority area level• Has now become the Annual Business Survey and the Business Register & Employment Survey (for 2009 data onwards)• https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/Default.asp

Employment trends – South West 7/10 of jobs Note reclassification of some previously financial industry jobs into this category (eg. accountancy etc.)

Employment trends – Bath & NESomerset Probable inaccuracy, maybe in coding of large employer’s postcodes

Job Seeker’s Allowance Claimant Count• An unofficial measure of unemployment• Looks at the number of people able to fulfil certain criteria (ie. those eligible for and claiming JSA), rather than the actual number of people who are unemployed and seeking work• Records their sought occupations• Doesn’t count people out of work claiming other benefits or unemployed people not eligible for JSA• Timely (monthly)• Official measure is ILO unemployment which almost always runs higher• Can be accessed through the ONS NOMIS site – don’t need a Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Notice• https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/Default.asp

Under-19 Job Seeker’s AllowanceClaimant Count, South West

Under-19 Job Seeker’s AllowanceClaimant Count - index

Number of under-20s leaving JSA foreducation & training, 12 monthmoving average About 10 extra people each month

Number of under-20s leaving JSA foreducation & training, index of 12month moving average

Participation in education, employment & training by 16-18 year olds in England• Department for Education statistical first release• Updated annually (latest = SFR 18/2010)• Official statistics for EET and NEET• Provides breakdowns by age, gender, mode of study, type of learning, institution type (FE college, schools, etc)• Time series back to 1985• Available at local authority area level• Comes form a range of administrative data, including ILR, school census etc. which is fuzzy matched to postcodes• Time lag – latest data is for 2008• An estimate, not a census• Two of the most common complaints are: • Sometimes questionable denominators due to using population estimates as a base • Quality of postcode data is sometimes not as good as you might expect• http://tiny.cc/6063d

Increasing participation at 17 – SouthWest

National Employer Skills Survey (NESS)• Largest survey of England’s employers, their training & recruitment practices and skills needs• A very large survey (80,000 employers in 2009) so is representative• Currently biennial – carried out in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007 & 2009• 2009 survey was designed so as to be representative to local authority area level• Data available regarding: • Recruitment problems • Skills gaps • Training practices & expenditure • Skill updating needs • Recession New for ‘09 • Product market strategies• Previously ‘owned’ by the LSC, now with UKCES• As with ABI does not include sole traders or the self-employed• https://ness.ukces.org.uk/default.aspx

South West employers’ opinions onyoung people’s readiness for work

ONS sub-national population projections• 25 year estimates of future populations• 2008-based, using 2008 mid-year population estimates• Breakdown available by 5 year age groups, gender, region, local authority, local health authority areas• Further detail available on request to the ONS (eg. single year ages, district authority level detail)• Projections are estimates so not gospel: nobody can tell the future• Some dispute from a number of local authorities as to accuracy – rural authorities tend to agree with these more than urban authorities• Local authorities often produce their own projections - both have their pros and cons• We use ONS so as to apply a standard across the whole country• http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=997

2008-based population projectionsindex – 16-18 year olds, South West

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Strategic Analysis: Headlines for the South West - RIG Meeting January 2011

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