Migration Statistics Improvement Work Nigel Swier ONS Centre for Demography

Context Migration is a key part of population change It is difficult to measure There is no direct source or register Estimated using surveys and other sources

Migration is a key part of population change

It is difficult to measure

There is no direct source or register

Estimated using surveys and other sources

Context - Change

Importance of Population Estimates Local authority resource allocation Planning and monitoring service provision e.g. education and health services Grossing up survey results e.g. Labour Force Survey Denominators in the derivation of rates e.g. GDP, unemployment rates, mortality & fertility rates, performance indicators

Local authority resource allocation

Planning and monitoring service provision

e.g. education and health services

Grossing up survey results

e.g. Labour Force Survey

Denominators in the derivation of rates

e.g. GDP, unemployment rates, mortality & fertility rates, performance indicators

Work Programme Data sharing legal gateways Schools Census, Migrant Worker Scan, student data Statistical research and development Source data improvements e.g. Port Survey Review, patient register, new surveys Work in kind by other government departments e.g. E-Borders, DWP outputs Reporting strategy User engagement

Data sharing legal gateways

Schools Census, Migrant Worker Scan, student data

Statistical research and development

Source data improvements

e.g. Port Survey Review, patient register, new surveys

Work in kind by other government departments

e.g. E-Borders, DWP outputs

Reporting strategy

User engagement

Already Implemented Improvements to methods in 2007 distribution of migration, emigration modelling Improved port survey Better coverage of migrants at key ports in IPS More coherent migration reporting Quarterly report and less confusion on on multiple outputs across government Indicators of migration and improved timeliness National level estimates of short-term migration

Improvements to methods in 2007

distribution of migration, emigration modelling

Improved port survey

Better coverage of migrants at key ports in IPS

More coherent migration reporting

Quarterly report and less confusion on on multiple outputs across government

Indicators of migration and improved timeliness

National level estimates of short-term migration

Next Improvement Package Distribution of international migration using administrative data Student adjustments using HESA data Refinements to previous methods Local level short term migration estimates Quality measures around population estimates Indicators and early migration outputs

Distribution of international migration using administrative data

Student adjustments using HESA data

Refinements to previous methods

Local level short term migration estimates

Quality measures around population estimates

Indicators and early migration outputs

What changes numbers? Distribution of international migration Issue : Current method uses 2001 Census – out of date distributions? Solution : Use timely administrative sources in conjunction Internal migration flows Issue : Current source (patient registers) can be slow at recording moves e.g. of students Solution : Enhance with HESA student data which includes term-time address

Distribution of international migration

Issue : Current method uses 2001 Census – out of date distributions?

Solution : Use timely administrative sources in conjunction

Internal migration flows

Issue : Current source (patient registers) can be slow at recording moves e.g. of students

Solution : Enhance with HESA student data which includes term-time address

Quality Assurance Published QA Strategy (June 2009) ONS development protocols met (Methdology QA panels) External reference panels in development Local Insight Reference Panels to sense-check outcomes Expert peer review (academics etc) Consultation and engagement

Published QA Strategy (June 2009)

ONS development protocols met (Methdology QA panels)

External reference panels in development

Local Insight Reference Panels to sense-check outcomes

Expert peer review (academics etc)

Consultation and engagement

Consultation Indicative impacts published 30 November Impact of improvements for all LAs presented Supporting methodology documentation Consultation period to 1 8 January 2010 Opportunity for users to provide input Seven regional roadshow seminars in December Manchester, Birmingham, York, London, Bristol, Leicester, Llandindrod Wells Revised back series for estimates 2002-2008 will be published 27 May 2010

Indicative impacts published 30 November

Impact of improvements for all LAs presented

Supporting methodology documentation

Consultation period to 1 8 January 2010

Opportunity for users to provide input

Seven regional roadshow seminars in December

Manchester, Birmingham, York, London, Bristol, Leicester, Llandindrod Wells

Revised back series for estimates 2002-2008 will be published 27 May 2010

Next Phase More extensive use of administrative data for statistical purposes More data sharing gateways Linking and matching between sources E-Borders roll-out Improved counts of migrants into and out of UK Better quality measures Ability to make statements about confidence in figures 2011 Census Basis of estimation for the next decade

More extensive use of administrative data for statistical purposes

More data sharing gateways

Linking and matching between sources

E-Borders roll-out

Improved counts of migrants into and out of UK

Better quality measures

Ability to make statements about confidence in figures

2011 Census

Basis of estimation for the next decade

Keeping up to date Quarterly updates and other information at www.statistics.gov.uk /imps Implementation seminars Consultation period Email: imps@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Quarterly updates and other information at www.statistics.gov.uk /imps

Implementation seminars

Consultation period

Email: imps@ons.gsi.gov.uk