Nigel Swier ONS - Migration Statistics Improvement Work

Migration Statistics Improvement Work Nigel Swier ONS Centre for Demography

Context
Migration is a key part of population change
It is difficult to measure
There is no direct source or register
Estimated using surveys and other sources

Context - Change

Importance of Population Estimates
Local authority resource allocation
Planning and monitoring service provision
e.g. education and health services
Grossing up survey results
e.g. Labour Force Survey
Denominators in the derivation of rates
e.g. GDP, unemployment rates, mortality & fertility rates, performance indicators

Work Programme
Data sharing legal gateways
Schools Census, Migrant Worker Scan, student data
Statistical research and development
Source data improvements
e.g. Port Survey Review, patient register, new surveys
Work in kind by other government departments
e.g. E-Borders, DWP outputs
Reporting strategy
User engagement

Already Implemented
Improvements to methods in 2007
distribution of migration, emigration modelling
Improved port survey
Better coverage of migrants at key ports in IPS
More coherent migration reporting
Quarterly report and less confusion on on multiple outputs across government
Indicators of migration and improved timeliness
National level estimates of short-term migration

Next Improvement Package
Distribution of international migration using administrative data
Student adjustments using HESA data
Refinements to previous methods
Local level short term migration estimates
Quality measures around population estimates
Indicators and early migration outputs

What changes numbers?
Distribution of international migration
Issue : Current method uses 2001 Census – out of date distributions?
Solution : Use timely administrative sources in conjunction
Internal migration flows
Issue : Current source (patient registers) can be slow at recording moves e.g. of students
Solution : Enhance with HESA student data which includes term-time address

Quality Assurance
Published QA Strategy (June 2009)
ONS development protocols met (Methdology QA panels)
External reference panels in development
Local Insight Reference Panels to sense-check outcomes
Expert peer review (academics etc)
Consultation and engagement

Consultation
Indicative impacts published 30 November
Impact of improvements for all LAs presented
Supporting methodology documentation
Consultation period to 1 8 January 2010
Opportunity for users to provide input
Seven regional roadshow seminars in December
Manchester, Birmingham, York, London, Bristol, Leicester, Llandindrod Wells
Revised back series for estimates 2002-2008 will be published 27 May 2010

Next Phase
More extensive use of administrative data for statistical purposes
More data sharing gateways
Linking and matching between sources
E-Borders roll-out
Improved counts of migrants into and out of UK
Better quality measures
Ability to make statements about confidence in figures
2011 Census
Basis of estimation for the next decade

Keeping up to date
Quarterly updates and other information at www.statistics.gov.uk /imps
Implementation seminars
Consultation period
Email: imps@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Nigel Swier ONS - Migration Statistics Improvement Work

by South West Observatory on Nov 11, 2009

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Nigel Swier ONS - Migration Statistics Improvement Work — Presentation Transcript