Local Population Projection in Practice - David Cullum

Local Population Projection in practice David CULLUM Deputy Manager Research Team November 2009

Why did we do our own local projection?
How did we do it?
What did our local projection tell us?
What are we doing with our local projection?

Why did we do our own local projection? ONS a top-down ‘disaggregation’ of national projections ONS based on past 5 years trend – which were anomalous for Gloucestershire Significant differential between ONS MYE and our own local estimates

ONS based on past 5 years trend – which were anomalous for Gloucestershire
Historically high levels of housebuilding
Significant influx of A8 migrant workers
Also, 5-year ‘trend-based’ projections are ‘policy-blind’

Significant differential between ONS MYE and our own local estimates
ONS say 582,600 for mid 2007
We reckon 594,700
Based on GP registrations/electoral registers

How did we do it?
We used POPGROUP© with
Local population base
Local fertility rates
Local mortality rates
Local migration estimates
Residential development plans (RSS)

How did we do it?
Local population base
12,000 higher than ONS MYE at mid 2007
More in GCC More in ONS Very young Very old

How did we do it?
Local fertility & mortality rates
Locally observed fertility and mortality rates
Provided by Glo’shire NHS
Future vital trends modelled using GAD estimated rates

How did we do it?
Local migration estimates
Used ONS District inflow/outflow data to derive rates for internal (within UK) migration
International Migration based on:
NINO
Migrant Worker study for length of stay
High levels of A8 in-migration in short term, ‘decaying’ to EU norm for Glo’shire after 10 years

How did we do it?
Residential development plans (RSS)
Draft Regional Spatial Strategy housing targets for Districts
51,000 houses in County 2008-2026
Annual targets for each district input into projection model
Significant policy influence

What did our local projection tell us?

What did our local projection tell us? Local growth rate 8.8% ONS rate 13.7%

What did our local projection tell us? Projected population 2026

What did our local projection tell us? ONS projecting a more elderly population More people of parenting age in our local projection

What did our local projection tell us? Projected population 2026

What are we doing with our local projection?

Local Population Projection in Practice - David Cullum

by South West Observatory on Nov 11, 2009

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