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Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
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Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates

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  1. Locally-derived Population Projections Gloucestershire <ul><li>Louise Li </li></ul><ul><li>Senior Research Officer </li></ul><ul><li>Research Team </li></ul><ul><li>Gloucestershire County Council </li></ul><ul><li>8 th September 2010 </li></ul>
  2. Projection modelling <ul><li>POPGROUP - standard cohort component approach </li></ul><ul><li>with locally-derived population statistics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>population base </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>locally derived fertility, mortality and migration rates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>international migration estimates </li></ul></ul><ul><li>alternative growth assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>develop flexibility in service planning </li></ul>
  3. Locally-derived population base <ul><li>(1) local patient register records </li></ul><ul><li>postcodes output areas </li></ul><ul><li>(2) local electoral register </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>age/gender distribution derived at output area level </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(3) child and adult population in output areas </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>(4) amalgamate to ward, parish, district and county </li></ul>
  4. Implications of local population estimates for projections <ul><li>a starting point to project forward </li></ul><ul><li>age-specific population rates </li></ul><ul><ul><li>numbers, components of change, age structure </li></ul></ul>
  5. ONS vs Locally derived population base
  6. Birth rates (ONS vs Locally derived)
  7. Mortality rates (ONS vs Locally derived)
  8. Migration rates (ONS vs Locally-derived)
  9. Locally derived international migration <ul><ul><li>Inflow </li></ul></ul><ul><li>(1) National Insurance Number Applications (NINO) </li></ul><ul><li>Age and gender split derived from worker registration scheme (WRS) and work permit data </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(2) Assumptions about children </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>A8 countries, other EU countries and non-EU countries </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(3) Assumptions about short-term migrants </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Outflow </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>IPS ratio, with age and gender split </li></ul></ul></ul>
  10. ONS vs Locally derived international migration
  11. Key gaps with ONS projections
  12. Key gaps with ONS projections
  13. Key gaps with ONS projections
  14. Key gaps with ONS projections
  15. Key gaps with ONS projections
  16. Hypothetical scenarios Impact of housing
  17. Future development Economy-led scenario Small area projections Service forecasting
  18. Locally derived Population Projections Gloucestershire <ul><li>Louise Li </li></ul><ul><li>Senior Research Officer </li></ul><ul><li>Research Team </li></ul><ul><li>Gloucestershire County Council </li></ul><ul><li>8 th September 2010 </li></ul>

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