Farming Futures: The Agricultural Sector In The South West To 2020 And Beyond

Farming Futures: The agriculture sector in the South West to 2020 and beyond Matt Lobley E-mail: m.lobley@exeter.ac.uk Web: www.centres.ex.ac.uk/crpr/

“ The prospects for humanity and for the world as a whole are somewhere between glorious and dire. It is hard to be much more precise” (Colin Tudge, 2004)

Not trying to predict farming futures
Identify factors likely to influence agriculture in the South West in mid-term future (2025/30)
Objectives

Recent agricultural trends
Long term trend of declining labour
Loss of dairy farms but until now, not much change in dairy production levels
Increasing farm size but also large & expanding small farm/lifestyle sector
Low and volatile incomes
Dependency on public funds
Development of local food cultures

Climate change
Warmer, dryer summers
Wetter, warmer winters
New opportunities for farmers – new varieties, new crops (e.g. nuts)
New pests and diseases
Agriculture’s role in carbon capture & storage

Population change
Population projected to grow from 6 to 9 billion by 2050.
Population distribution: Climate change migrants?
Not just population growth. Changing patterns of demand.
Together, require world food production to double .
Expansion of farmed area?
Intensification of production?

Policy change – CAP reform
Impact of global recession
Public good arguments for supporting agriculture remain strong
Phasing out of direct payments, particularly post 2020?
Many farmers in SW vulnerable to loss of CAP funds

Food security
Linked to population growth & climate change
End of period of food & land ‘surpluses’
New era of volatile food commodity prices?
Self-sufficiency or access to safe, nutritious food via trade?
Likely to see greater emphasis on increasing domestic production

Food security
“the UK has a moral duty to make the most of its position in the globe and its natural advantages for producing certain types of food. ... it should aim to increase its production of those fruit, vegetables and cereals that are suited to being grown here” (EFRA Com 2009)

Food security
The return of productivism?
Food v fuel debate
Strategic need to support regional/local agricultural infrastructure?

Climate Change - risks of new agricultural pests and diseases.
Speed of change makes for greater severity of some diseases.
Blue Tongue: extended range northwards into areas of Europe further north than this virus has ever previously occurred anywhere in the world.
Who should shoulder responsibility as number of notifiable diseases increases – tax payers, farmers, insurance companies?
Bio-security

The energy inefficiency of contemporary agriculture
Peak oil
Search for efficiency gains & alternatives
Min till, low input systems
Biomass rather than biofuels?
Implications for land use and landscape
Energy security

Water security
Globally, freshwater per person forecast to have declined by 43% in 2025 compared to late 1980s
EA defines SW as having ‘moderate’ water stress
During summer months no additional water available in much of region
Agriculture significant consumer of water
Estimated 700L of water embedded in 1L of milk & 15,000L in 1kg of beef

So what?
‘Perfect storm’ of increasing demand for food, energy & water at same time as adapting to and mitigating climate change
Implications for size/shape of sector – less oil more labour?
Implications for how land is used and managed –reduced soil disturbance
Implications for protected areas
Implications for research and intelligence

Farming Futures: The Agricultural Sector In The South West To 2020 And Beyond

by South West Observatory on Dec 08, 2009

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