A brief introduction to niche modelling
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  • Niche modelling is one possible short term solution to the lack of data... lets take a look to it.\nUsing the incomplete data we already have...\n
  • together with environmental data of the area...\n
  • We can apply and algorithm to obtain a map of possible distribution of the specie based on the environmental where it lives.\n
  • So at the end. Ocurrence data + environmental layers+modelling alorithms provide us distribution models.\n
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  • 1. Introduction to Niche ModellingMany thanks to Robert Guralnick for various slide content
  • 2. What is an ecological niche?Two parts: Fundamental niche and Realized niche The full range of conditions under which an animal could exist
  • 3. What is an ecological niche?Two parts: Fundamental niche and Realized niche The portion of the fundamental niche that the organism comes to actually occupy due to all limiting factors
  • 4. What is an ecological niche? Two parts: Fundamental niche and Realized niche The portion of the fundamental niche that the organism actually occupies due to all limiting factors
  • 5. What is it in detail? Circle A represents area where abiotic conditions are right for a species to occur (Ga) Circle B represent the area where lack of competition, disease, and occurrence of mutualists allows populations to grow.       Circle M is area within which individuals & populations arecapable of moving due to lack of dispersal barriers.Go is occupied area, Gi is invadable area From Soberon and Peterson
  • 6. What is niche modelling?An attempt to sample awide range ofecological variablesthat could describe thepresence of a pointoccurrence, develop amodel that describesthe relationship, andpredict thefundamental niche ofthe organism
  • 7. What is niche modelling?
  • 8. Why do we use niche modelling? Our samples of this Montane Vole are only directly tell us point information about the existance of the vole. So we need a method to predict the space the vole can or could occupy GBIF point data for the Montane vole and an IUCN Red List range map
  • 9. Este es el mismo mapa con muchos mas puntos de donde se encuentra ese bicho en Europa
  • 10. Summer precipitation Winter precipitation Plano de condiciones ambientalesMaximum temp. summer Average elevation
  • 11. Plano de distribución potencial de la especie
  • 12. Ocurrence data,specimen-observationdata +Environmental layers +Modelling algorithm =Distribution models
  • 13. Where does the data come from? Presence data - species occurrences 1. Museum collections 2. Observation networks 3. Species inventories (also absence) Ecological data 1. Remote sensing, land cover measurements 2. Weather stations 3. Climate projections 4. Habitat preference profiles Algorithms 1. Handful of common methods, see class wiki
  • 14. What has made it more common?Advances in algorithmic methods                                 Availability of worldwide environmental data Improvements in GIS technology
  • 15. What does niche modelling provide?Historical projections Waltari et al., 2007
  • 16. What does niche modelling provide? Present day projections
  • 17. Future projections
  • 18. What does niche modelling provide?More future projections