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FEWS NET South Sudansouthsudan@fews.netwww.fews.netFEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflectthe view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United StatesGovernmentSOUTH SUDAN Food Security Outlook January to June 2013Impacts of conflict and flooding continue to drive Stressed and Crisis levels of food insecurityKEY MESSAGESGenerally, food security outcomes have improved in SouthSudan since the start of the harvest in October. 2012/13national cereal production is about 40 percent above last yearand six percent above the five-year average (2007-2011).Production from the traditional sector is estimated at 761,000metric tons (MT), and 173,000 MT of production from themechanized sector is expected to cover 47 percent of thenational cereal deficit of 371,000 MT.While the harvest has improved food security in some areas,the impacts of border tensions, cattle raiding, civil strife, andflooding continue to drive widespread Stressed and Crisis (IPCPhase 2 and 3) levels of food insecurity. Furthermore, thebenefits from the good harvest will be limited, as poorinfrastructure and market development hinder the transportof food from surplus to deficit areas of the country.Cattle raiding and inter-communal conflicts in parts of Jonglei,Lakes, Unity, and Warrap states have started earlier thannormal, likely causing increased internal displacement as thedry season progresses. Markets and humanitarian access willbe significantly disrupted by conflicts in parts of these areas.Over the course of the Outlook period, the areas of most concern include parts of Jonglei, Northern and Western Bahrel Ghazal, Unity, Warrap, Upper Nile, and Lakes states. Crisis levels of food insecurity are already present in Jonglei,Unity, and Warrap states due to the impacts of conflict, displacement, and floods on production. Food security willbegin to deteriorate around March in the areas of concern. Border areas will be particularly impacted by exceptionallyhigh food prices, restricted access to labor in Sudan, and high levels of insecurity.SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEARSource: FEWS NETFigure 1. Current food security outcomes, January2013Source: FEWS NETThis map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant foremergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronicfood insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/foodinsecurityscale for moreon this scale.
SOUTH SUDAN Food Security Outlook January to June 2013Famine Early Warning Systems Network2NATIONAL OVERVIEWCurrent SituationGenerally, food security outcomes have improved in SouthSudan since the start of the harvest in October 2012.According to the annual Crop Food Security AssessmentMission (CFSAM), 2012/13 national cereal production isabout 40 percent above last year and six percent above thefive-year average (2007-2011), due to favorable seasonalrainfall. Production from the traditional sector is estimatedat 761,000 metric tons (MT), and 173,000 MT of productionfrom the mechanized sector is expected to cover 47 percentof the national cereal deficit of 371,000 MT.Production in localized areas of Jonglei, Warrap, Unity,Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Western Bahr el Ghazal, andUpper Nile states was impacted by heavy flooding over thecourse of the rainy season, affecting 45,113 households.Most of those affected by the flooding are in Jonglei state.In Jonglei, Lakes, Unity, and Warrap states, atypically earlycattle raiding and inter-communal reprisal attacks haveaggravated the impact of floods. An estimated 4,000 peoplewere displaced in Unity state in December 2012 and about1,000 people were displaced in Tonj East and North countiesof Warrap state in January. According to UN OCHA,humanitarian organizations have delivered food and non-food items to the displaced population.Prices of staple foods have declined as the main harvestends in most parts of the country. Nonetheless, pricesremain very high in most markets compared to the five-yearaverage (2007-2011). According to the National Bureau ofStatistics (NBS), the annual increase in the consumer priceindex (which is driven mostly by food prices) in Decemberwas 25.2 percent higher than last year. However, the indexdeclined by 10.6 percent from November to December inresponse to the harvest.Tensions along the Sudan and South Sudan border havecontinued. Repeated aerial attacks on Kiir Adem inNovember and December 2012 in Northern Bahr el Ghazalstate displaced over 6,000 people. Food assistance wasprovided to the displaced population in January 2013.Separate attacks have also taken place in Raga County(Western Bahr el Ghazal) bordering Sudan and in Upper Nile.Currently most areas of the country face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels of food insecurity, while areas affected byinsecurity and/or the floods face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity. These areas include parts of Jonglei stateand northern parts of Unity, Warrap, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal states. IDPs in Pibor County of Jonglei state face Crisislevels (IPC Phase 3) due to persistent insecurity that prevents cultivation and humanitarian assistance access.Figure 2.Projected food security outcomes, January toMarch 2013Source: FEWS NETFigure 3.Projected food security outcomes, April to June2013Source: FEWS NETThese maps represent acute food insecurity outcomes relevant foremergency decision-making, and do not necessarily reflect chronic foodinsecurity. Visit www.fews.net/foodinsecurityscale for more on this scale.
SOUTH SUDAN Food Security Outlook January to June 2013Famine Early Warning Systems Network3AssumptionsThe most likely scenario for January to June 2013 is based on the following national-level assumptions:Food prices: Food prices are expected to increase significantly, particularly during the second half the scenario period,as most poor households are expected to deplete their food stocks as early as February and begin to rely on markets inMarch. Formal trade flows from Sudan are not expected to resume soon, and increased transaction costs from Ugandaand Kenya to the northern states of South Sudan will raise prices beyond the affordability of poor households.Refugees/displaced populations: An increased influx of refugees from Sudan is expected as conflict continues in SouthKordofan and Blue Nile states of Sudan. The volatile security situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo could alsocause refugee flows into South Sudan. Displacement due to the early start to cattle raiding is expected to increase inJonglei, Lakes, Unity, and Warrap states as the dry season progresses. The reasons for the early start to the cattleraiding are unclear.Sudan-South Sudan border tensions: Due to tensions between Sudan and South Sudan, migratory labor – one of themain sources of income and food for poor households in the northern states – will continue to be restricted. Althoughborder points have not officially opened, informal trade will continue between the two countries, though the volume oftrade is expected to be lower than average.Humanitarian assistance: Ongoing displacement, refugees, and returnees from Sudan are likely to increase demands forhumanitarian assistance during the scenario period. About 1,500 returnees arrived in Abyei on January 20, the firstorganized voluntary return this year. Significantly increased returnees are expected in anticipation of the forthcomingreferendum scheduled for October 2013, resulting in an increased need for assistance in the coming months.Most Likely Food Security OutcomesStressed and Crisis levels will be widespread over the course of the Outlook period, mainly due to direct and indirectimpacts of conflict and insecurity in several areas of the country. Although cereal production was good in some areas ofthe country, poor infrastructure and market development increase the difficulty of transporting food from surplus todeficit-production areas of the country. The main areas of concern will be Jonglei, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, Unity,Upper Nile, and Lakes states, where mostly Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity willpersist during the Outlook period due to the impacts of conflict, displacement, and flooding on production and livelihoods.The lean season is expected to start one month earlier than normal (in April versus May) for poor households in the areas ofconcern.Markets will start to play a key role as a major food source in March as food stocks are depleted about one month earlierthan normal, and prices are expected to increase significantly during the second half of the scenario period. In response,poor households will increase collection of wild foods and sales of grass, firewood, and charcoal for income. Distress salesof livestock are expected to increase beginning in April. Poor households will increasingly face Stressed levels of foodinsecurity, with Crisis levels more prevalent during the second half of the scenario period. Crisis levels will persist in areasthat experienced low production and market disruptions due to insecurity, including parts of Jonglei, Northern Bahr elGhazal, Unity, and Abyei.AREAS OF CONCERNWestern Flood Plains: Northern Behr el Ghazal (Aweil North and East), Warrap (Twic, Gogrial West, Tonj Northand East) and Unity (Abiemnhom and Mayom)Current Situation2012/2013 harvest: The harvest was mixed in the Western Flood Plain livelihood zone. Yields were substantially reduced inlow-lying areas where floods inundated crops. In Lakes states, uneven rainfall distribution was reported, with some dry
SOUTH SUDAN Food Security Outlook January to June 2013Famine Early Warning Systems Network4spells and excessive flooding that resulted in reduced yields. In Aweil East county (Northern Bahr el Ghazal), and GogrialWest and Twic counties (Warrap), good yields were attained, although they will not be sufficient to meet demand until thenext harvest.Food prices: Although well above average, food prices are at their seasonally low point. Since the border closure withSudan, traders have turned to alternative supply chains to provide food to the northern states that traditionally relied onSudanese imports. Despite the current stalemate in implementation modalities of the cooperation agreement signed byboth countries in Addis Ababa, formal trade is not expected to resume in the near future, though informal cross bordertrade will continue to trickle into Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Unity, and Warrap states.Displacements: Internal conflicts among cattle herders have displaced thousands in Unity, Lakes, and Warrap. Conflictsrelated to cattle rustling and reprisal attacks have started earlier than anticipated in Panyijiar county of Unity state, andTonj East and North counties of Warrap state and Cueibet county of Lakes state.Food security outcomes: Populations affected by floods in Unity, Warrap, Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Lakes states, andIDPs in the livelihood zone, are meeting minimally adequate food consumption at the expense of other essential non foodexpenditures. Food consumption gaps exist among IDPs displaced from recent border tensions and cattle raids, which havecaused losses to household assets and disruption of livelihood activities. High prices coupled with lack of alternative incomesources limit poor households’ access to food. According to the WFP food security monitoring system, 70-80 percent of thepopulation has reported high food prices as a major shock. Overall, the Western Flood Plain zone faces Stressed levels offood insecurity with Crisis levels of food insecurity concentrated along the northern areas bordering the Sudan, includingmost of the returning IDPs in Abyei.AssumptionsMarket access and prices: High food prices are expected to continue during the scenario period. Households’ food stocksare expected to be depleted by February. During this time, prices will be seasonally lower though still above average. Priceswill be highest during the April – June period, which coincides with the lean season.Conflict-related displacement: Displacement resulting from cattle raids and inter-ethnic reprisal attacks are expectedduring the dry season, particularly the March to May period. Typically, cattle raids and reprisal attacks start when mostlivestock move to the dry season grazing areas. This year, the atypically early cattle raiding might be motivated by the highprices and reduced harvest in some areas that are impacting household-level resources and livelihood options. Increasedtension along the border could also lead to population displacement along the Sudan-South Sudan border, particularlyaround Northern and Western Bahr el Ghazal and Unity states, where tensions are high.Displacement in Abyei: More than 11,000 IDPs from Abyei are now located in Abyei since the voluntary return processbegan in June 2012. Most of the remaining IDPs are expected to return during the scenario period ahead of the forthcomingAbyei referendum scheduled to take place in October 2013. Mass movement into Abyei in a fairly short period willaggravate the current situation and increase food and non-food needs. The Messeriya nomads have also expressed intentto move into the area. Movement of the Messerya into Abyei for settlement rather than grazing is likely to create tensionthat will result in fresh conflict between the two communities.Most Likely Food Security OutcomesSignificant food consumption gaps are expected to prevail among poor households due to a decline in wage laboropportunities, the reduced harvest in flood and conflict-affected areas, high staple food prices, and persistent disruption oflivelihoods due to conflict. The situation will deteriorate in March when reliance on markets increases. Given the effects offloods, conflicts and high prices, the lean season is expected to start in April instead of May. The second half of the scenarioperiod is therefore critical as a significant proportion of poor and middle groups will experience substantial foodconsumption gaps.Continuous disruption of livelihoods and displacement of the population resulting from internal conflicts and intermittentexternal incursions will continue to undermine food security. Limited food diversity for poor households is also a major
SOUTH SUDAN Food Security Outlook January to June 2013Famine Early Warning Systems Network5factor significantly affecting nutritional status of household members in the Western Flood Plains, in addition to disease andsanitation. The situation is expected to worsen during the lean season.Given the most likely scenario, most of the livelihood zone will continue to face Stressed levels of food insecurity whileCrisis levels (IPC Phase 3) of food insecurity will persist in Abyei from January to March. During the second half of thescenario period, Stressed levels will persist in some parts while areas including Twic, Aweil North and East, Abiemnhom,Mayom, Rumbek North, Cueibet and Abyei that experienced various shocks will face Crisis levels during the second half ofthe scenario period.Eastern Flood Plains: Jonglei (Akobo, Uror and Ayod county); Upper Nile State (Maban, Manyo, Maiwut andNasir) and Unity State (Pariang County)Current SituationThe eastern flood plains livelihood zone was significantly affected by last year’s floods, with reduced yields in some areasincluding Longechuk, Ulang, Maiwut, Nasir and Maban counties (Upper Nile); Uror, Nyirol, Ayod, and Akobo counties(Jonglei), and Pariang County (Unity). Most of those displaced by the floods were unable to cultivate. The impact of thefloods has been compounded by the persistent insecurity resulting from cattle rustling and inter-ethnic reprisal attacks,which caused displaced households to miss cultivation or abandon crops. Poor households in most areas face Stressedlevels of food insecurity, while Crisis levels are present in areas heavily affected by conflict and flooding in Pibor, Uror andNyirol.AssumptionsFishing: Pool fishing will decrease as the flood waters recede. From January to May, fishing activity will be confined in therivers (Sobat, Nile and Pibor), and the number of households involved in fishing increases. Although fishing is carried outmostly by poor households, all socio-economic groups are involved in years of stress. This year, all socio-economic groupsare expected to engage in fishing for food and income sources because of the impacts of conflict and flooding.Income sources: Poor households will increase reliance on fish and sale of natural resources for income throughout thescenario period. While sale of firewood and charcoal increase during this period, grass sales reduce. Poor households,particularly those that traditionally migrate to Sudan for labor, are also expected to migrate to urban centers forconstruction-related labor from January to April. Sale of livestock is expected to start in March, but distressed sales will takeplace mostly in May and June preceding the peak of the lean season.Seasonal livestock migration: Livestock are expected to seasonally migrate towards better pasture and water sources bythe end of January and early February, which will reduce access to milk for poor households who remain at homesteads.Favorable rainfall replenished water supply and considerably improved pasture conditions, resulting in delayed livestockmovement to dry season grazing areas by at least one month. Competition over resources in the dry season is expected totrigger fierce rivalry over grazing areas given the early onset of conflict related to cattle raids and communal fighting.Most Likely Food Security OutcomesFood consumption is expected to decline from February to June due to reduced income and migration of livestock to waterand pasture points. Since labor opportunities are expected to decline beginning in April, income from labor will be reducedamong poor households.Flood-affected and poor households are likely to exhaust their own food stocks in February. Market purchase, wild foodsand fish will be the primary food sources. With limited income sources, households will be unable to fully meet their staplefood demands resulting in a significant reduction in consumption of these foods during the lean season. Distress livestocksales will increase from April to June in order to reduce the household food consumption gap.Almost all the areas in the Eastern Flood Plain livelihood zone will be at Stressed levels of food insecurity during the Januaryto March period. During April to June, food security will deteriorate and parts of Jonglei most affected by the floods and
SOUTH SUDAN Food Security Outlook January to June 2013Famine Early Warning Systems Network6insecurity will face Crisis levels while the rest of the Upper Nile will be at Stressed levels.Refugees: Unity (Pariang County) and Upper Nile (Maban County)The total number of refugees in Unity state (Yida, Pariang, Nyeel) stands at 58,628, and 111,904 in Upper Nile (Doro,Jamman, Batil, Gendrassa) as of early January 2013. About 917 refugees arrived in Yida during the last week of December.Insecurity, lack of food, and lack of basic services are the major reasons for fleeing. Refugees report increased aerial attacksin recent weeks in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, implying that more refugees will be expected in the coming months.Currently refugees are dependent on food assistance as the main food source. New arrivals are often in dire need ofassistance. With an increased influx, the food security situation in the camps is expected to deteriorate unless mitigationmeasures, such as contingency plans or food prepositioning, are put in place. Concentration of refugees in large numberscould trigger disease outbreaks. Increased refugee households arrived in South Sudan with livestock, which is expected toincrease competition for resources among resident and refugee communities who keep livestock. For example, livestockowned by refugees in Maban County of Upper Nile now outnumber those of the resident community.In Maban County of Upper Nile state, food assistance maintains the food insecurity at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels, butCrisis levels are expected over the latter part of the scenario period. Crisis levels are expected to persist throughout thescenario period in Pariang country due to increasing numbers of refugees in dire conditions.EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOKTable 1: Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENTTo project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects,and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes those assumptions in the context of current conditions and locallivelihoods to develop scenarios estimating food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario.Area Event Impact on food security outcomesNorthern Bahrel Ghazal,Warrap, Unityand Upper Nile,Western Bahr elGhazalResolution of the outstandingissues in the CPA,implementation ofcooperation agreement andresumption of oil flow.The food security situation in South Sudan will deteriorate over thescenario period. However, the situation would likely be positivelyimpacted if the governments in Juba and Khartoum reached a deal onimplementation modalities of the agreement signed in September2012 including resumption of oil production and resolution ofoutstanding issues, most importantly the border demarcation and theAbyei referendum.