0
Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014
South Asia
Region
1
Sanket Mohapatra
World Bank
January 2014
www.worldbank.org/glob...
2
South Asia’s regional GDP
growth was a relatively weak
4.6 percent in 2013.
3
GDP growth in South Asia slowed to a
decade low during 2012 and 2013
Source: World Bank, national sources
GDP growth (pe...
4
.
Growth in India is estimated
to have fallen below 5% in
current fiscal year.
5
.
Pakistan’s growth has
averaged 3.5% since 2010.
6
A challenging external
environment played a role.
7
A challenging external
environment played a role.
But domestic imbalances and policy
uncertainties were important
contri...
8
A sharp adjustment in capital flows during
mid-year on tapering apprehensions
Gross capital flows to South Asia (million...
Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan
in 2013
Source: World Bank, Datastream.
Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan
in 2013
Source: World Bank, Datastream.
Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan
in 2013
Source: World Bank, Datastream.
Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan
in 2013
Source: World Bank, Datastream.
Regional growth is expected to
strengthen to 5.7% in 2014.
Growth is projected to rise to
6.7% by 2016.
Regional growth is expected to
strengthen to 5.7% in 2014.
Growth is projected to rise to
6.7% by 2016.
Regional growth is expected to
strengthen to 5.7% in 2014.
Growth is projected to rise to
6.7% by 2016.
16
A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be
led by domestic investment and external demand
17
A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be
led by domestic investment and external demand
18
A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be
led by domestic investment and external demand
Risks to the outlook
• Domestic risks dominant:
– Ability to sustain fiscal and policy reforms
– Reducing inflation expect...
Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014
South Asia
Region
20
Sanket Mohapatra
World Bank
January 2014
www.worldbank.org/glo...
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Global Economic Prospects South Asia January 2014 World Bank

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Global Economic Prospects South Asia January 2014 World Bank
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  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: HIY_GDP
    Chart internal id: LDIJOWQYDDTD
  • Transcript of "Global Economic Prospects South Asia January 2014 World Bank"

    1. 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 South Asia Region 1 Sanket Mohapatra World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
    2. 2. 2 South Asia’s regional GDP growth was a relatively weak 4.6 percent in 2013.
    3. 3. 3 GDP growth in South Asia slowed to a decade low during 2012 and 2013 Source: World Bank, national sources GDP growth (percent)
    4. 4. 4 . Growth in India is estimated to have fallen below 5% in current fiscal year.
    5. 5. 5 . Pakistan’s growth has averaged 3.5% since 2010.
    6. 6. 6 A challenging external environment played a role.
    7. 7. 7 A challenging external environment played a role. But domestic imbalances and policy uncertainties were important contributors as well.
    8. 8. 8 A sharp adjustment in capital flows during mid-year on tapering apprehensions Gross capital flows to South Asia (millions of US$) Source: World Bank, Dealogic
    9. 9. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    10. 10. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    11. 11. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    12. 12. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    13. 13. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
    14. 14. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
    15. 15. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
    16. 16. 16 A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand
    17. 17. 17 A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand
    18. 18. 18 A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand
    19. 19. Risks to the outlook • Domestic risks dominant: – Ability to sustain fiscal and policy reforms – Reducing inflation expectations – Political uncertainties (national elections in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India in 2014) – Progress in alleviating supply-side constraints in energy, infrastructure, agriculture • Disorderly adjustment to financial tightening accompanying normalization of macro policy in high income countries • Fragile global growth – Euro Area not out of woods yet – Risks from US debt ceiling negotiations, geopolitical risks in Middle East • Doing better will depend on macro stability and productivity enhancing reforms to raise longer-term potential growth 19
    20. 20. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 South Asia Region 20 Sanket Mohapatra World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
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