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Global Economic Prospects South Asia January 2014 World Bank

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Global Economic Prospects South Asia January 2014 World Bank …

Global Economic Prospects South Asia January 2014 World Bank
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  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: PMIs
    Chart internal id: BHDSVQKXXAOD
  • Project path: r:gmtpresentationsGlobalOutlook.cwp
    Chartset name: GlobalOutlook_Aug2013
    Chart name: HIY_GDP
    Chart internal id: LDIJOWQYDDTD
  • Transcript

    • 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 South Asia Region 1 Sanket Mohapatra World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
    • 2. 2 South Asia’s regional GDP growth was a relatively weak 4.6 percent in 2013.
    • 3. 3 GDP growth in South Asia slowed to a decade low during 2012 and 2013 Source: World Bank, national sources GDP growth (percent)
    • 4. 4 . Growth in India is estimated to have fallen below 5% in current fiscal year.
    • 5. 5 . Pakistan’s growth has averaged 3.5% since 2010.
    • 6. 6 A challenging external environment played a role.
    • 7. 7 A challenging external environment played a role. But domestic imbalances and policy uncertainties were important contributors as well.
    • 8. 8 A sharp adjustment in capital flows during mid-year on tapering apprehensions Gross capital flows to South Asia (millions of US$) Source: World Bank, Dealogic
    • 9. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    • 10. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    • 11. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    • 12. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
    • 13. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
    • 14. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
    • 15. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
    • 16. 16 A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand
    • 17. 17 A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand
    • 18. 18 A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand
    • 19. Risks to the outlook • Domestic risks dominant: – Ability to sustain fiscal and policy reforms – Reducing inflation expectations – Political uncertainties (national elections in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India in 2014) – Progress in alleviating supply-side constraints in energy, infrastructure, agriculture • Disorderly adjustment to financial tightening accompanying normalization of macro policy in high income countries • Fragile global growth – Euro Area not out of woods yet – Risks from US debt ceiling negotiations, geopolitical risks in Middle East • Doing better will depend on macro stability and productivity enhancing reforms to raise longer-term potential growth 19
    • 20. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 South Asia Region 20 Sanket Mohapatra World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook