Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank
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Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank
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  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 01 MOM industrial production <br /> Chart internal id: CTMZFOWNKNJX <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 01 MOM industrial production <br /> Chart internal id: CTMZFOWNKNJX <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 01 MOM industrial production <br /> Chart internal id: CTMZFOWNKNJX <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 01 MOM industrial production <br /> Chart internal id: CTMZFOWNKNJX <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 01 MOM industrial production <br /> Chart internal id: CTMZFOWNKNJX <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 01 MOM industrial production <br /> Chart internal id: CTMZFOWNKNJX <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 01 MOM industrial production <br /> Chart internal id: CTMZFOWNKNJX <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 02 MOM exports and tourists <br /> Chart internal id: EXWLSXGGUGUZ <br />
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  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 02 MOM exports and tourists <br /> Chart internal id: EXWLSXGGUGUZ <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 02 MOM exports and tourists <br /> Chart internal id: EXWLSXGGUGUZ <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 02 MOM exports and tourists <br /> Chart internal id: EXWLSXGGUGUZ <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 03 MOX crude production <br /> Chart internal id: EQUSSZLCRVSJ <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 03 MOX crude production <br /> Chart internal id: EQUSSZLCRVSJ <br />
  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MNA <br /> Chart name: 03 MOX crude production <br /> Chart internal id: EQUSSZLCRVSJ <br />
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  • Project path: R:Damir7.eviews2.MacroMENAmacro.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MENA <br /> Chart name: 05 GDP <br /> Chart internal id: SWRIZVULSAKS <br />
  • Project path: R:Damir7.eviews2.MacroMENAmacro.cwp <br /> Chartset name: MENA <br /> Chart name: 05 GDP <br /> Chart internal id: SWRIZVULSAKS <br />
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Transcript

  • 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Middle East & North AfricaDamir Cosic World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  • 2. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
  • 3. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
  • 4. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
  • 5. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
  • 6. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
  • 7. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries - 44%
  • 8. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Egypt’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey crossed into positive territory in November 2013 for the first time in 13 months, signaling an improvement in manufacturing output going forward.
  • 9. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Growth, 3m/3m, saar Exports Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
  • 10. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Growth, 3m/3m, saar Exports Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
  • 11. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Growth, 3m/3m, saar Exports Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
  • 12. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Growth, 3m/3m, saar Exports Tourist Arrivals Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
  • 13. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Growth, 3m/3m, saar Exports Tourist Arrivals - 57% Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
  • 14. 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 mb/d Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil- exporters
  • 15. 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 mb/d Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil- exporters 7.3
  • 16. 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 mb/d Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil- exporters 7.3 8.5
  • 17. 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 mb/d Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil- exporters 7.3 8.5 10.5
  • 18. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA External imbalances have worsened in the region
  • 19. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA External imbalances have worsened in the region
  • 20. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA External imbalances have worsened in the region
  • 21. -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast Fiscal balances as a share of GDP Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
  • 22. -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast Fiscal balances as a share of GDP Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
  • 23. -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast % change Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA
  • 24. -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast % change Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA 2.8%
  • 25. -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast % change Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA 3.6%
  • 26. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Middle East & North AfricaDamir Cosic World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook