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Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014
Middle East &
North AfricaDamir Cosic
World Bank
January 2014
www.worldbank.org/glo...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, sa...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, sa...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, sa...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, sa...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, sa...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, sa...
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI) survey cros...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Exports
Although exports...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Exports
Although exports...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Exports
Although exports...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Exports
Tourist
Arrivals...
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Exports
Tourist
Arrivals...
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
mb/d
Security setback...
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
mb/d
Security setback...
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
mb/d
Security setback...
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13
mb/d
Security setback...
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP
Oil Export...
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP
Oil Export...
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP
Oil Export...
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast
Fiscal balances as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Im...
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast
Fiscal balances as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Im...
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast
% change
Growth will improve in the forecast pe...
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast
% change
Growth will improve in the forecast pe...
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast
% change
Growth will improve in the forecast pe...
Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014
Middle East &
North AfricaDamir Cosic
World Bank
January 2014
www.worldbank.org/glo...
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Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank

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Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank
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  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp
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  • Transcript of "Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank"

    1. 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Middle East & North AfricaDamir Cosic World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
    2. 2. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
    3. 3. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
    4. 4. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
    5. 5. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
    6. 6. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
    7. 7. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Tunisia Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries - 44%
    8. 8. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Egypt’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey crossed into positive territory in November 2013 for the first time in 13 months, signaling an improvement in manufacturing output going forward.
    9. 9. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Growth, 3m/3m, saar Exports Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
    10. 10. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Growth, 3m/3m, saar Exports Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
    11. 11. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Growth, 3m/3m, saar Exports Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
    12. 12. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Growth, 3m/3m, saar Exports Tourist Arrivals Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
    13. 13. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Growth, 3m/3m, saar Exports Tourist Arrivals - 57% Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
    14. 14. 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 mb/d Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil- exporters
    15. 15. 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 mb/d Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil- exporters 7.3
    16. 16. 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 mb/d Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil- exporters 7.3 8.5
    17. 17. 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 mb/d Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil- exporters 7.3 8.5 10.5
    18. 18. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA External imbalances have worsened in the region
    19. 19. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA External imbalances have worsened in the region
    20. 20. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA External imbalances have worsened in the region
    21. 21. -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast Fiscal balances as a share of GDP Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
    22. 22. -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast Fiscal balances as a share of GDP Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
    23. 23. -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast % change Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA
    24. 24. -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast % change Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA 2.8%
    25. 25. -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast % change Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks Oil Exporters Oil Importers Developing MENA 3.6%
    26. 26. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Middle East & North AfricaDamir Cosic World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
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