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Global Economic Prospects Europe & Central Asia January 2014 World Bank

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Global Economic Prospects Europe & Central Asia January 2014 World Bank …

Global Economic Prospects Europe & Central Asia January 2014 World Bank
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  • 1. Mizuho Kida World Bank January 2014 Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Europe & Central Asia Region www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
  • 2. Growth in the ECA region has strengthened in 2013 to 3.4% up from 2% in 2012.
  • 3. Growth in the Europe & Central Asia region has strengthened in 2013 to 3.4% up from 2% in 2012.
  • 4. Growth strengthened in the region supported by increases in external demand Quarterly GDP (% change, sa)
  • 5. Growth strengthened in the region supported by increases in external demand Quarterly GDP (% change, sa) Export volume (% change, 3m/3m, sa)
  • 6. Growth strengthened in the region supported by increases in external demand Quarterly GDP (% change, sa) Export volume (% change, 3m/3m, sa)
  • 7. Among the Commonwealth of Independent States, growth performance has been mixed.
  • 8. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  • 9. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  • 10. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  • 11. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  • 12. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  • 13. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  • 14. Energy-commodity exporters maintained a strong growth -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Impact of commodity price changes on trade balance (%GDP, 2013)
  • 15. Among the CIS countries, strong remittance inflows partially mitigated terms of trade shocks 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Remittances (%GDP, 2013)
  • 16. Capital inflows to the region began strong, but weakened after the mid-year tapering announcement and ensuing volatility.
  • 17. Capital inflows to the region began strong, but weakened after the mid-year tapering announcement and ensuing volatility 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Gross Capital Flows to ECA (US$ mn)
  • 18. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non- performing loans 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  • 19. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non- performing loans 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  • 20. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non- performing loans 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  • 21. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non- performing loans 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  • 22. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non- performing loans 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  • 23. Across the region, the banking sector remains weak, saddled with an overhang of non- performing loans 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%)
  • 24. Growth outlook for the region is that of sustained gradual acceleration, from 3.4% in 2013 to 3.8% by 2016.
  • 25. Growth outlook for the region is that of sustained gradual acceleration, from 3.4% in 2013 to 3.8% by 2016.
  • 26. Growth outlook for the region is that of sustained gradual acceleration, from 3.4% in 2013 to 3.8% by 2016.
  • 27. Growth outlook for the region critically depends on recoveries in Europe and Russia 0 20 40 60 80 Hungary Albania Romania Bosnia and Herzegovina Kosovo Bulgaria Croatia Serbia, Rep. of Macedonia, FYR Kazakhstan Moldova Azerbaijan Armenia Turkey Belarus Montenegro, Rep. Ukraine Georgia Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic Exports to the Euro Area (percent of total exports, 2012) 0 10 20 30 40 Belarus Ukraine Moldova Armenia Lithuania Latvia Kazakhstan Serbia, Rep. of Poland Slovenia Turkey Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Romania Macedonia, FYR Bosnia and… Albania Exports to Russia (percent of total exports, 2012)
  • 28. Mizuho Kida World Bank January 2014 Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Europe & Central Asia Region www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook