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Global Economic Prospects East Asia & Pacific January 2014 World Bank

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Global Economic Prospects East Asia & Pacific January 2014 World Bank …

Global Economic Prospects East Asia & Pacific January 2014 World Bank
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  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp
    Chartset name: EAP
    Chart name: Chart 7. EAP Quarterly GDP Copy
    Chart internal id: LPIRAFDHCIMA
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    Chart name: Chart 2.3 EAP. Imports
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    Chart name: Chart 2.4 EAP. PMI
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  • Project path: R:GMTGEPGEP14aChartsGEP14a.cwp
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  • Transcript

    • 1. Ekaterine Vashakmadze World Bank January 2013 Global Economic Prospects January 2014 East Asia & Pacific Region www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
    • 2. 2013 marked another year of weakening growth in East Asia and the Pacific region with growth moderating to 7.2% from 7.4% in 2012.
    • 3. 2013 marked another year of weakening growth in East Asia and the Pacific region with growth moderating to 7.2% from 7.4% in 2012.
    • 4. 2013 marked another year of weakening growth in East Asia and the Pacific region with growth moderating to 7.2% from 7.4% in 2012.
    • 5. Growth in China was unchanged from the 7.7% recorded in 2012. A one percentage point slowdown in growth in the rest of the region reflects a moderation of economic activity in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
    • 6. Growth in China was unchanged from the 7.7% recorded in 2012. A one percentage point slowdown in growth in the rest of the region reflects a moderation of economic activity in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
    • 7. Source: World Bank, IMF IFS. Figure 1. Growth in 2013 moderated reflecting a sharp slowdown in the first quarter in a number of large Middle Income countries of the region partly reflecting policy tightening aimed at unwinding imbalances which resulted from loose policies implemented during 2007 and 2012 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 China Indonesia Developing countries excl. China Quarterly GDP, percent change, saar -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan'07 Oct'07 Jul'08 Apr'09 Jan'10 Oct'10 Jul'11 Apr'12 Jan'13 Oct'13 China Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Vietnam (RHS) Real credit growth, % change, year-over-year
    • 8. Source: World Bank, IMF, IFS, Datastream. Figure 2. The impact of domestic adjustment was also exacerbated by a tightening of international financing conditions in the second quarter of 2013 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 May '13 May '13 Jun '13 Jul '13 Aug '13 Sep '13 Oct '13 Nov '13 Dec '13 Developing countries Indonesia Vietnam China Sovereign Bond Interest Rate Spreads, basis points over US
    • 9. -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Jul '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Apr '13 Jul '13 Oct '13 China Thailand East Asia excluding China P.R. Import volume, % change, 3m/3m, saar Source: World Bank, Datstream. Figure 3. Imports contracted sharply reflecting policy tightening and contributed to stronger net-exports
    • 10. Source: World Bank, Markit Economics, Datstream. Figure 4. Business sentiment started to improve in the second half of 2013, but remains precarious 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 Jan '12 May '12 Sep '12 Jan '13 May '13 Sep '13 Vietnam South Korea Indonesia Japan China Diffusion index, greater than 50 indicates expansion
    • 11. -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 May '12 Aug '12 Nov '12 Feb '13 May '13 Aug '13 Nov '13 China Indonesia East Asia (excl. China) Philippines Export volume, % change, 3m/3m, saar Source: World Bank, Datstream. Figure 5. Regional exports rebounded following a six month period of contraction
    • 12. Source: World Bank, Datstream. Figure 6. Pressures on the regional currencies have considerably lessened from May-September tightening episode, but remain present particularly in Indonesia reflecting on-going adjustment to external balance pressures and in Thailand related to on-going political tensions. 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 May '13 May '13 Jun '13 Jul '13 Aug '13 Sep '13 Oct '13 Nov '13 Dec '13 Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (April 1, 2013=100) Thailand Malaysia Indonesia China
    • 13. Overall growth in the region is expected to stay flat at around 7.2% in 2014 and ease insignificantly to 7.1% in 2015 and 2016.
    • 14. Overall growth in the region is expected to stay flat at around 7.2% in 2014 and ease insignificantly to 7.1% in 2015 and 2016.
    • 15. Overall growth in the region is expected to stay flat at around 7.2% in 2014 and ease insignificantly to 7.1% in 2015 and 2016.
    • 16. The region… although of a relatively low probability, the outlook would be sensitive to the risks of either an abrupt tightening of global financing conditions, or a rapid decline in China’s investment rates.
    • 17. The region… although of a relatively low probability, the outlook would be sensitive to the risks of either an abrupt tightening of global financing conditions, or a rapid decline in China’s investment rates. Major tail-risks have subsided but, have not been eliminated and include protracted recovery in the Euro Area and fiscal policy uncertainty in the United States.
    • 18. The region… although of a relatively low probability, the outlook would be sensitive to the risks of either an abrupt tightening of global financing conditions, or a rapid decline in China’s investment rates. Major tail-risks have subsided but, have not been eliminated and include protracted recovery in the Euro Area and fiscal policy uncertainty in the United States. In addition, although currently contained, an escalation of country-level (Thailand, for example) as well as bilateral and geo-political tensions may undermine regional growth prospects.
    • 19. Ekaterine Vashakmadze World Bank January 2013 Global Economic Prospects January 2014 East Asia & Pacific Region www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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