MDGReport2012Assessing Progressin Africa towardthe MillenniumDevelopment GoalsMDGReport2012:AssessingProgressinAfricatowar...
Assessing Progressin Africa towardthe MillenniumDevelopment GoalsMDG Report 2012African UnionEconomic Commissionfor Africa...
The boundaries and names shown on the maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance bythe United Nations or the Afr...
In line with the Decision of July 2005 Assembly/AU/Dec 78(v), this report was jointly preparedby AUC, UNECA, AfDB and UNDP...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 vTable ofContentsList of Tables . . . . . . . ....
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012viList ofTablesTable 1 	 Africa’s MDGs performan...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 viiList ofFiguresFigure 1.1	 Proportion of popu...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012viiiFigure 3.9 	 Female–male wage ratio for simi...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 ixFigure 7.1 	 Proportion of land area covered ...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012xForewordThis year’s report has been written aga...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xiWe wish to thank all those who have contribut...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012xiiAcknowledgementsMr. Pedro Conceiçäo, Chief Ec...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xiiiOlayide (AUC) on Goal 7; and Mr. Hilary Nwo...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012xivThis year’s Assessing Progress in Africa towa...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xvAcronyms and abbreviationsAfDB	 African Devel...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xviiSection I: OverviewWith less than three yea...
OverviewAssessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012xviiimasks wide income, gender and spati...
OverviewAssessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xixTable 1 Africa’s MDGs performance at...
OverviewAssessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012xxlow incomes, low productivity and poor...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xxiOverviewand access to antiretroviral therapy...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 1Section II: Tracking progressGoal 1: Eradicate...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 20122Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerTarg...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 3Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerhas...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 20124Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerThe ...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 5Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerFig...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 20126Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerthei...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 7Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerBox...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 20128Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerFigu...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 9Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerBox...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201210Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerDue...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 11Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungeris...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201212Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungergro...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 13Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerho...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201214Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungercha...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 15Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerIn...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201216Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerser...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 17Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerIn...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201218Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerfig...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 19Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerhe...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201220Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerthe...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 21Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerFi...
Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201222Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungernat...
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African Union.MDG 2015 Report 2012 English

  1. 1. MDGReport2012Assessing Progressin Africa towardthe MillenniumDevelopment GoalsMDGReport2012:AssessingProgressinAfricatowardtheMilleniumDevelopmentGoalsPrinted at ECAFONDSAFRICAIN DE DÉVELOPPEMENTAFRICANDEVELOPMENTFUNDBANQUEAFRICAINE DE DÉVELOPPEMENTAfrican Development Bank GroupAfrican UnionEconomic Commissionfor AfricaEmpowered lives.Resilient nations.Emerging perspectives fromAfrica on the post-2015development agenda
  2. 2. Assessing Progressin Africa towardthe MillenniumDevelopment GoalsMDG Report 2012African UnionEconomic Commissionfor AfricaAfrican Development Bank GroupFONDSAFRICAIN DE DEVELOPPEMENTAFRICAN DEVELOPMENTFUNDBANQUEAFRICAINE DE DEVELOPPEMENTEmpowered lives.Resilient nations.Emerging perspectives from Africa on thepost-2015 development agenda
  3. 3. The boundaries and names shown on the maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance bythe United Nations or the African Union Commission.Cover photos: from left, Stock.xchng/David Thomson, UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe, UN Photo/AlbertGonzalez Farran, Stock.xchng/Asif Akbar, Stock.xchng/Bilba, Moi Cody, Nate Brelsford, Maggie Cellux
  4. 4. In line with the Decision of July 2005 Assembly/AU/Dec 78(v), this report was jointly preparedby AUC, UNECA, AfDB and UNDP. It has been presented and endorsed by the 19th OrdinarySession of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union held in July 2012in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia for submission to the General Assembly in September 2012 in responseto the Resolution 55/162.
  5. 5. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 vTable ofContentsList of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ivList of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vForeword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viiiAcknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xA note on data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiiAcronyms and abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiiiSection I: Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvSection II: Tracking progressGoal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Goal 4: Reduce child mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56Goal 5: Improve maternal health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110Section III: Emerging perspectives from Africa on the post-2015 development agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125Section IV: Conclusions and policy perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139Appendix 1: Summary of Africa’s performance on the MDGs, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142Appendix 2: Technical notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146Appendix 3: Proportion of children aged 0–59 months with fever receiving antimalarial drugs in selected African countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148Appendix 4: Official list of MDG indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
  6. 6. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012viList ofTablesTable 1 Africa’s MDGs performance at a glance, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xviiTable 1.1 Estimated annual GDP growth required to meet the poverty reduction target, and actual growth attained, 2000–2010 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Table 1.2 Growth and inequality elasticities of poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Table 1.3 Annual GDP growth required to halve poverty between 2010 and 2025 . . . . . . 13Table 1.4 Africa has potential for generating jobs but its productivity growth is too low . 14Table 2.1 Net enrolment changes in primary education, 1999–2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Table 2.2 Changes in primary completion rate, 1999–2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Table 3.1 Change in gender parity index in secondary education, 1991–2009 . . . . . . . . . 44Table 3.2 Tertiary enrolment parity and percentage change in gender parity index in tertiary education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Table 3.3 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament, 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . 52Table 4.1 Reductions in infant mortality, 1990–2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61Table 5.1 Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR), various years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Table 6.1 Regional HIV/AIDS statistics, 2001 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82Table 7.1 Change in consumption of ODS, 2000–2009 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99Table 7.2 Terrestrial and marine areas protected as a share of total territory . . . . . . . . . . 100Table 8.1 DAC members’ net ODA, 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113Table 8.2 ODA to Africa by sector, 2005–2010 (as % of total bilateral commitments from OECD/DAC donors) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115Table 8.3 Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on exports of agricultural goods, textiles and clothing, various years (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116Table 8.4 Recipients of AfT commitments in 2009 ($ million) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117Table 8.5 HIPC status of African countries, 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118Table 8.6 Availability and consumer price ratio of essential medicines, 2000s . . . . . . . . . 119Table 8.7 Access to ICT by region, 1990, 2000 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120Table 9.1 Enabling the post-2015 development agenda: perspectives from Africa . . . . . .135Table 9.2 Priorities for the post-2015 development agenda: perspectives from Africa . . . 136
  7. 7. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 viiList ofFiguresFigure 1.1 Proportion of population living below $1.25 a day (2005 PPP), 1990–2008 . . . . . 3Figure 1.2 People in Africa (excluding North Africa) are moving out of poverty but vulnerability is higher among the middle class, 1990–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Figure 1.3 Change in the share of people living below $1.25 a day, various years, 1990–2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Figure 1.4 Rural poverty remains high and pervasive in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Figure 1.5 Poverty is higher among women in many countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Figure 1.6 Average annual labour productivity growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Figure 1.7 Share of working poor in total employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Figure 1.8 Youth unemployment trends, 2000–2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Figure 1.9 Progress in reducing the Global Hunger Index, 1990–2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Figure 1.10 Prevalence of underweight among under-five-year-olds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Figure 2.1 Net enrolment in primary education, 1999 and 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Figure 2.2 Gap to net enrolment target in primary education, selected African countries, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 2.3 Primary completion rate for selected African countries, 1999 and 2009 . . . . . . 30Figure 2.4 Primary completion rate disaggregated by sex, selected African countries, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Figure 2.5 Literacy rate, both sexes, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Figure 2.6 Youth literacy rate by sex, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Figure 3.1 Gender parity index in primary school enrolment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Figure 3.2 Change in gender parity index in primary school enrolment, 1991–2009 . . . . . 40Figure 3.3 Regional change in gender parity in primary school enrolment, 1991–2009 . . . 41Figure 3.4 Gender parity index in secondary school enrolment, 1991 and 2009 . . . . . . . . 43Figure 3.5 Africa made the fastest progress on the gender parity index for school life expectancy, but still trails . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Figure 3.6 Change in share of women in wage employment outside agriculture, 1990–2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47Figure 3.7 Female–male employment ratio, industry and services, 2000s . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 3.8 Share of women in wage employment outside agriculture, 2000–2010 . . . . . . 49
  8. 8. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012viiiFigure 3.9 Female–male wage ratio for similar work, 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Figure 3.10 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament, 1990 and 2011 . . . . 51Figure 3.11 Change in proportion of seats held by women in national parliament . . . . . . . 53Figure 4.1 Progress in reducing the under-five mortality rate, 1990, 2010 and 2015 target 58Figure 4.2 Under-five mortality by region, 1990–2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Figure 4.3 Under-five mortality by African sub-region, 1990–2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Figure 4.4 Proportion of one-year-old children immunized against measles in 2010 and percentage change, 1990–2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Figure 5.1 Best performing countries on maternal health, 1990, 2008 and 2015 target . . . 66Figure 5.2 Regressing countries on maternal health, 1990, 2008 and 2015 target . . . . . . . 68Figure 5.3 Correlation between % change in proportion of births with a skilled health attendant and % change in MMR, 1995–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69Figure 5.4 Share of births with a skilled health attendant by region, urban versus rural, 2006–2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70Figure 5.5 Share of women giving birth with a skilled health attendant, urban versus rural 71Figure 5.6 Share of births with a skilled health attendant by wealth quintile, 2006–2010 . . 72Figure 5.7 Correlation between adolescent birth rates and MMR, 2005–2008 . . . . . . . . . 76Figure 5.8 Correlation between change in percentage of women attending at least one antenatal check-up and percentage change in MMR, 1995–2008 . . . . . . . 78Figure 5.9 Correlation between change in percentage of women attending at least four antenatal check-ups and percentage change in MMR, 1995–2008 . . . . . . 79Figure 6.1 Estimated ART coverage, 2009 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84Figure 6.2 Change in share of children under-five sleeping under insecticide- treated bednets, circa 2000 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88Figure 6.3 TB incidence is closely related to HIV prevalence, selected African countries, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90Figure 6.4 TB prevalence rate per 100,000 population by African sub-region, 1990, 2005 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90Figure 6.5 Change in prevalence and incidence of TB, 2005–2010, selected African countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91Figure 6.6 TB death rate per 100,000 population by African sub-region, 1990, 2005 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
  9. 9. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 ixFigure 7.1 Proportion of land area covered by forest, 1990 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95Figure 7.2 CO2emissions, 1990 and 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97Figure 7.3 Countries with consumption of ODS above 500 ODP metric tons, 2000 and 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102Figure 7.4 Terrestrial and marine areas protected as a share of total territorial area, 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102Figure 7.5 Change in access to an improved water source, urban and rural, 1990–2010 . 103Figure 7.6 Change in urban access to an improved water source, 1990–2010 . . . . . . . . . 104Figure 7.7 Change in rural access to an improved water source, 1990–2010 . . . . . . . . . . 105Figure 7.8 Change in access to improved sanitation facilities, urban and rural, 1990–2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106Figure 7.9 Change in urban access to improved sanitation facilities, 1990–2010 . . . . . . . 107Figure 7.10 Change in rural access to improved sanitation facilities, 1990–2010 . . . . . . . . 108Figure 8.1 ODA received by landlocked developing countries, share of GNI, 1990 and 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115Figure 8.2 Small island developing states’ ODA as share of GNI, 1990–2009 . . . . . . . . . . 116Figure 8.3 Cellular subscribers per 100 population, 2000 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121Figure 8.4 Internet users per 100 population, 2000 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122Figure 9.1 To what extent do the MDGs capture countries’ priorities and concerns? . . . . 133Figure 9.2 Suggested new areas for the post-2015 agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
  10. 10. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012xForewordThis year’s report has been written against thebackdrop of continued rapid economic growth inAfrica, uprisings and transitions in North Africa,the festering sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone,the United Nations Conference on SustainableDevelopment (Rio+20), and the beginning of con-sultations on the post-2015 development agenda.The findings of this year’s report confirm thatsteady economic growth and improvements inpoverty reduction on the continent continue tohave a positive impact on MDG progress. Africahas sustained progress toward several MDGs and ison track to achieve the targets of: universal primaryeducation; gender parity at all levels of educa-tion; lower HIV/AIDS prevalence among 15-24year olds; increased proportion of the populationwith access to antiretroviral drugs; and increasedproportion of seats held by women in nationalparliament by 2015.Even so, the report acknowledges that more needsto be done to address inequalities, including be-tween women and men. It highlights the needto address the sub-standard quality and unequaldistribution of social services between rural andurban areas. It suggests active steps to ensure thateconomic growth translates into new and adequateemployment opportunities for Africa’s youthful andrapidly growing population, and social protectionsystems which grow the resilience and capabilitiesof poor and vulnerable households. The reporturges policymakers to put greater emphasis onimproving the quality of social services and en-suring that investments yield improved outcomesfor the poor. Expanding access and improving thequality of social services are both imperative forMDG progress. A balance must be struck to moveboth objectives forward.The report observes that high rates of popula-tion growth can strain countries’ ability to delivervital public services and undercut progress. Africaneeds to turn this dynamic on its head, to exploita ‘demographic dividend’ which can help drivegrowth, innovation, and provide a clear competi-tive advantage. To do this the countries of Africamust invest in their greatest asset, their people- in particular, their growing number of youngpeople - ensuring that they can be the productive,innovative, and engaged citizens who will helpaccelerate MDG progress and achieve sustainablehuman development.Assessments of Africa’s progress must be anchoredin timely and reliable data, and objective and ef-fective monitoring and evaluation systems. Thus,African countries, with the support of develop-ment partners, should continue to strengthen thestatistical monitoring and evaluation capacitiesneeded to track MDG progress.It is imperative that the lessons from Africa’s MDGsexperience inform the Rio+20 negotiations anddrive the post-2015 development agenda. Cog-nizant of the importance of ensuring that Africa’spriorities and development aspirations featuresubstantively in the negotiations on Internation-ally Agreed Development Goals, this year’s reporthighlights the inclusive and consultative processplanned around formulation of the post-2015development agenda. It points to a consensusemerging from wide-ranging and on-going con-sultations with African stakeholders on the need
  11. 11. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xiWe wish to thank all those who have contributedto the preparation of this report. We commendthe authors for taking into account the views andexperiences of the many leaders, policymakers,and development practitioners working daily toadvance and achieve the MDGs in Africa.to invest in human and institutional capacitiesand technological innovation as critical drivers ofsustainable development. It notes the agreementon the need for the post-2015 agenda to be trans-formative, inclusive, and sustainable, anchored inprinciples of equality and framed by a commitmentto deliver quality social services.Jean PingChairperson,African Union­CommissionAbdoulie JannehExecutive Secretary,Economic Commissionfor AfricaDonald KaberukaPresident,African DevelopmentBank GroupHelen ClarkAdministrator,United Nations­Development­Programme
  12. 12. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012xiiAcknowledgementsMr. Pedro Conceiçäo, Chief Economist and Head,Strategic Advisory Unit (UNDP–RBA).The report was prepared under the general direc-tion of Abdalla Hamdok (UNECA Deputy Execu-tive Secretary), Dr. Maxwell Mkwezalamba (AUCCommissioner for Economic Affairs), ProfessorMthuli Ncube (AfDB Chief Economist and VicePresident), and Mr. Tegegnework Gettu, UnitedNations (UN) Assistant Secretary-General and Di-rector of UNDP–RBA. The Chairperson of the AUC,Dr. Jean Ping, the UN Under-Secretary-Generaland Executive Secretary of UNECA, Mr. AbdoulieJanneh, the President of the African DevelopmentBank Group, Dr. Donald Kaberuka, and HelenClark, Administrator UNDP and Chair of the UNDevelopment Group, provided general guidance.Many others outside the core team provided in-sights, including Raj Mitra, Oumar Sarr (UNECA),Eugene Owusu (UN Resident Coordinator andUNDP Resident Representative, Ethiopia), SamuelBwalya and Haile Girma (UNDP).The report also benefited from many reviewers:Charles Abugre (Millennium Campaign, UNDP) onGoal 1, the Millennium Development Villages andthe post-2015 agenda; Mrs. Patience Awopegba(UNESCO) on Goal 2; Osten Chulu (UNDP) on Goals2 and 8; Ms. Tikikel Tadele Alemu (UN Women)on Goal 3; Dr Janet Byaruhanga (AUC) on Goal4; Dr Kango Mabvuto (AUC)and Shewaye Lulu(UNFPA) on Goal 5; Edoh Soumbey-Alley (WHO)and Dr Marie-Goretti (AUC) on Goal 6; OlusholaAssessing Progress in Africa towards the Millen-nium Development Goals is a joint report of theAfrican Union Commission (AUC), United NationsEconomic Commission for Africa (UNECA), AfricanDevelopment Bank (AfDB), and the United NationsDevelopment Programme–Regional Bureau forAfrica (UNDP–RBA).It was prepared by a core team led by BartholomewArmah, Chief of the MDGs/LDCs Section, Eco-nomic Development and NEPAD Division (UNECA),Dossina Yeo, Acting Head of Statistics Division,Economic Affairs Department (AUC), Beejaye Kokil,Manager of Economic and Social Statistics Divi-sion (AfDB) and Ayodele Odusola, MDG Advisor,Strategic Advisory Unit, UNDP–RBA.The team included Adrian Gauci (UNECA), NdinayeSekwi Charumbira (AUC), Selamawit Mussie (AUC),Maurice Mubila (AfDB), Chrystelle Tsafack Temah(UNECA), Julianne Deitch (UNECA), Adwoa Atta-krah (UNECA), Janet Byaruhanga (AUC), OstenChulu (UNDP), Babatunde Omilola (UNDP), Do-mingos Mazivila (UNDP) and Eunice Kamwendo(UNDP). Ms. Margaret Wanjiku (MDG Centre Nai-robi) informed the report with perspectives on theMillennium Villages project.The work was carried out under the supervisionof Professor Emmanuel Nnadozie, Director of theEconomic Development and NEPAD Division (UN-ECA), Mr. René N’Guettia Kouassi, Director ofEconomic Affairs Department (AUC), Mr. CharlesLeyeka Lufumpa, Director of Statistics (AfDB) and
  13. 13. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xiiiOlayide (AUC) on Goal 7; and Mr. Hilary Nwokeabia(UNCTAD) on Goal 8.The following also gave their insights: AUC:Dampha Almami, Dr. Harakege Marie-Gareth;UNESCO: Saracino Giuseppe, Kusayanagi Myriam;UNICEF: Mwangi Anthony; UNDP: Yechi Bekele,Lamin Bal and relevant practice team leaders fromthe Regional Service Centre, Johannesburg.The team undertook a wide range of consultationsfor this report from the initial concept note to thefinal draft. These consultations included an Africanexpert group’s validation meeting on the MDGsin Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on 7–8 March 2012. Thecountries represented at the meeting, along withthe names of the experts, are:Algeria: H.E. Ambassador Rachid Benlounes, SaïdMoussi; Angola: Constancia Olim, Jose Paulo Pérès,Marcelino Pinto, Andre Ventura; Benin: RomainSamuel Akpo; Botswana: Lesego Tebatso Chala-shika; Burkina Faso: Kassoum Bikienga, ToussaintTaro; Burundi: Juvénal Bumviye; Cameroon: Sévé-rin Tchomthe; Central African Republic: GhislainYvon Iyo; Chad: Ahmat El-Hadj Hamida ; Co-moros: Alfeine Siti Soifiat; Republic of Congo:Edoh Soumbey-Alley, Théophile Séraphin Bassissila;Côte d’Ivoire: Miano Émile Allade; Democratic Re-public of Congo: Godefroid Sinzidi Kabuki; Egypt:Mohamed Abdullah, Omar Abou Eich, AhmedFahmy Shahin; Eritrea: Biniam Berhe; Ethiopia:Dessie Bimerew Alemu, Ti Daniel; Gabon: JosephPaul Ibouili Maganga; Ghana: Kwaku Adjei-Fosu;Guinea: Saikou Ahmed Tidiane Balde; Kenya:Benson Kimani, Agieno Mfray Odongo; Lesotho:Mothoweso Liengoane Lefosa; Liberia: Saye DahnBaawo; Malawi: Charlotte Chinyam; Mauritius:Mohammed Afzal Khan Yearoo; Mauritania: Mo-hamed Abderrahmane Moine Teyeb; Mozam-bique: Alfredo Mutombene; Niger: Moussa Ada;Nigeria: Christopher Otabor; Saharawi: Moham-ed Fadal Salama Djidun; Senegal: Nalar Konady,Serge Manel, Alaya Ouarme; Seychelles: RebeccaLoustau-Lalanne; Sierra Leone: Eugene Sawyer;Somalia: Jibril Mohammed Osman; South Africa:Christopher Mulaudzi, Basson Hugo, PretoriusRina-Louise, Motsepe Thabo; South Sudan: MosesMabior Deu; Sudan: Somaia Omer; Swaziland: Da-vid Kunene; Tunisia: Mohamed Bougamra; Zambia:Josephine Mwenda; Zimbabwe: Hazel Chigwedere.An abridged version of this report was presented tothe Committee of Experts of the fifth joint UNECAConference of Ministers of Finance, Planning andEconomic Development and the AUC Conferenceof Ministers of Economy and Finance, on 22–25March 2012, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This finalversion has been enriched by their comments.Teshome Yohannes, Charles Ndungu, MenkirGirma and Ferdos Issa of the Publications andConference Management Services (PCMS) Divi-sion of UNECA, led by Etienne Kabou, handledthe design and printing of the report. The finalreport was edited by Communications Develop-ment Incorporated’s Bruce Ross-Larson and JackHarlow. The Report was translated into Frenchby Prime Productions and was proof-read andedited by Adla Kosseim. The ECA Information andCommunications Service (ICS), led by AdeyinkaAdeyemi and supported by Mercy Wambui andAloysuis Fomenky, provided invaluable assistancein media outreach, dissemination and policy ad-vocacy around the report.
  14. 14. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012xivThis year’s Assessing Progress in Africa towards theMillennium Development Goals is based on thelatest updated and harmonized data from UnitedNations Statistics Division (UNSD) – the officialrepository of data for assessing progress towardsthe MDGs. It also uses data from United Nationsagencies, the World Bank, and statistical databasesof the Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD). The main reason forusing these international sources is that they col-lect and provide accurate and comparable data onMDG indicators across Africa. The irregularity ofsurveys/censuses, ages, definitions and methodsof production of the indicators may explain the lagbetween the reporting year and the years of data.United Nations agencies regularly compile datafrom countries using standardized questionnairesor other mechanisms agreed on with those coun-tries. Submitted questionnaires are then validatedthrough a peer review process based on the datacollection and processing methods. The agenciesprovide estimates, take the responsibility for fillingdata gaps by estimating missing values and makeadjustments (if needed) to ensure global compa-rability across countries. The OECD also collectsdata specifically to track aid flows, based on astandard methodology and agreed definitions toensure comparability of data among donors andrecipients. As far as the production of MDG reportsat the continental level is concerned, these UnitedNations agencies and the OECD provide harmo-nized and comparable sources of data. However,some countries’ national data on particular MDGswere used in this report.Over the last few years, African countries havetaken commendable steps, with the support ofinternational organizations, to obtain data fortracking MDG progress. The AUC, UNECA, andAfDB have embarked on the development ofprogrammes that directly respond to these chal-lenges and improve African countries’ statisticalcapacity. They include the Africa Symposium forStatistics Development, an advocacy frameworkfor censuses; the African Charter on Statistics,constituting a framework for the coordination ofstatistical activities in the continent; the Strategyfor the Harmonization of Statistics in Africa, whichprovides guidance on harmonizing statistics; and anew initiative on civil registration and vital statis-tics. Since 2009, the three Africa-wide institutionshave also set up a joint mechanism for continentaldata collection and validation for producing anAfrican Statistical Yearbook. These initiatives willscale up the availability of data for tracking MDGprogress in Africa.A note on data
  15. 15. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xvAcronyms and abbreviationsAfDB African Development BankAfT Aid for TradeAIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syn-dromeART Antiretroviral TherapyAU African UnionAUC African Union CommissionCAR Central African RepublicCO2 Carbon DioxideCPR Contraceptive Prevalence RateDAC Development Assistance CommitteeDRC Democratic Republic of CongoEDND Economic Development and NEPADDivisionEU European UnionGDP Gross Domestic ProductGNI Gross National IncomeHCFC Hydro-chlorofluorocarbonHIPC Heavily Indebted Poor CountryHIV Human Immunodeficiency VirusICT Information and CommunicationsTechnologyIFPRI International Food Policy ResearchInstituteILO International Labour OrganizationITN Insecticide-treated NetLDC Least Developed CountryMDGs Millennium Development GoalsMMR Maternal Mortality RatioNEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Develop-mentNORAD Norwegian Agency for DevelopmentCooperationODA Official Development AssistanceODS Ozone-depleting SubstancesOECD Organisation for Economic Co-oper-ation and DevelopmentPEPFAR President’s Emergency Plan for AIDSReliefPPP Purchasing Power ParityTB TuberculosisUN United NationsUNAIDS Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDSUNCTAD United Nations Conference on Tradeand DevelopmentUNDP United Nations Development Pro-grammeUNDP–RBA United Nations Development Pro-gramme–Regional Bureau for AfricaUNECA United Nations Economic Commissionfor AfricaUNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientificand Cultural OrganizationUNFPA United Nations Population FundUNGEI United Nations Girls’ Education Initia-tiveUNICEF United Nations Children’s FundUNSD United Nations Statistics DivisionUSAID United States Agency for InternationalDevelopmentWDI World Development IndicatorsWHO World Health OrganizationThe “$” symbol refers to United States dollarsunless otherwise specified.
  16. 16. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xviiSection I: OverviewWith less than three years before the MillenniumDevelopment Goals (MDGs) target date of 2015,development practitioners, including agenciesof the United Nations (UN), are already initiatingconsultations aimed at defining the contours ofthe post-2015 development agenda.The United Nations Economic Commission forAfrica (UNECA), with the African Union Commis-sion (AUC) and the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme–Regional Bureau for Africa (UNDP–RBA) organized a regional workshop in Accra,Ghana, in November 2011 to engage policymakerson dialogue on the issue. Also, the five regionalcommissions of the UN are drafting a report on thepost-2015 development agenda, entitled Beyond2015: A Future UN Development Agenda. It isexpected to provide the main elements of a globaldevelopment agenda from a regional perspective.In parallel, the UN Department of Economic andSocial Affairs and UNDP are co-leading the UNsystem-wide consultations for the post-2015 devel-opment agenda, with support from all UN agenciesand in consultation with relevant stakeholders.The Overseas Development Institute of the UnitedKingdom, with UNDP, held consultations on thesame issue in Cairo, Egypt, in October 2011.Given the importance of the post-2015 agenda– particularly for Africa – this year’s AssessingProgress in Africa towards the Millennium Devel-opment Goals identifies that agenda as an areaof focus. The discussion synthesizes the findingsof the Africa region-wide consultations, led byUNECA, AUC and UNDP–RBA, which aim to ar-ticulate an African common position on the post-2015 development agenda. The consensus is forand “MDGs plus” option that reflects emergingglobal issues, such as climate change, and takesinto account development enablers and outcomes.Enablers encompass factors such as institutionalcapacity that facilitate development while out-comes include priorities such as reduced povertyand improved health.Any meaningful discussion of Africa’s prioritiesafter 2015 must, however, be grounded in Africa’sexperiences and lessons learnt with the MDGs.A review of earlier reports in this series suggeststhat the quality of social service delivery, inequal-ity, unemployment (particularly among youths),vulnerability to shocks, economic, social and en-vironmental sustainability of performance andinclusive growth are recurrent challenges in Africaand, consequently, should inform the post-2015agenda.The quality of service delivery remains a particularconcern, despite good progress on social indica-tors, particularly for net primary school enrolment.Poor completion rates, lack of qualified teachers,doctors and skilled birth attendants, and weakeducation and health infrastructure are a fewexamples of poor quality. It is therefore importantfor policymakers to ensure that social services meetminimum standards of quality.This series of reports has consistently revealedthat Africa’s aggregate performance on the MDGs
  17. 17. OverviewAssessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012xviiimasks wide income, gender and spatial inequali-ties in accessing social services. Left unchecked,these trends are likely to lead to social tensionsand unravel progress made on the MDGs. Hence itis imperative that policymakers design and imple-ment policies that address inequalities, promotesocial cohesion and sustain Africa’s progress onthe MDGs.This year’s report also underscores the poor capac-ity of Africa’s recent rapid growth to commensu-rately boost jobs and reduce poverty. Contribut-ing to this pattern is the dependence by severalAfrican countries on primary commodity exportsand capital-intensive extractive industries, whichhave few or no linkages with other sectors of theeconomy. Collectively, these factors create andreinforce the “enclave” structure of these coun-tries, which undermines their capacity to translateeconomic growth into strong job growth andpoverty reduction.The MDG experience is characterized by large andpersistent variations in performance across sub-regional, national and sub-national jurisdictions.Sub-regionally, North Africa still outperforms onmost MDGs, and may provide opportunities forsharing experience with other sub-regions (givendifferences in contexts, of course). Nationally, vari-ations in performance often reflect differences ininitial conditions. Sub-national variations, though,tend to be marked by gender and spatial dispari-ties in outcomes.The past decade has laid bare the vulnerabilities ofcountries to socio-economic and climate-relatedshocks – as seen in the global financial crisis, sharpincreases in food prices, the intensity and frequencyof natural hazards and recurrent conflicts. Thepost-2015 agenda must seek to promote Africanresilience by addressing associated vulnerabilities.Economic activity should reflect efforts to adapt toand mitigate the effects of climate change, as wellas to move towards a low-carbon growth path.These broad outlines find expression in this year’sAssessing Progress in Africa towards the Millen-nium Development Goals, and offer a perspectiveon the continent’s development priorities for thepost-2015 development agenda.
  18. 18. OverviewAssessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xixTable 1 Africa’s MDGs performance at a glance, 2012Goals and Targets (from the Mil-lennium Declaration)Status RemarksGoal 1: Eradicate extreme povertyand hungerOff track• $1.25-a-day poverty in Africa (excluding NorthAfrica) declined from 56.5% to 47.5% during1990–2008Goal 2: Achieve universal primaryeducationOn track: netenrolment• Average enrolment exceeds 80%• Issues of quality remain• Most countries are not expected to meet thecompletion targetGoal 3: Promote gender equalityand empower womenOn track• Good progress at primary level but weak parityat secondary and tertiary levels of education• High representation in parliamentGoal 4: Reduce child mortality  Off track • Declining, but slowlyGoal 5: Improve maternal health  Off track • Declining, but slowlyGoal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malariaand other diseasesOff track• HIV/AIDS on the decline, especially in SouthernAfrica, due to behavioural change and accessto antiretroviral therapyGoal 7: Ensure environmental sus-tainabilityOn track: im-proved watersupply• Few countries have reforestation plans• Emissions minimal for most countries with lit-tle increase• Most countries reduced consumption of ozone-depleting substances by more than 50%Source: Computations from UNSD, accessed December 2011.Africa’s recent MDG performanceAfrica’s progress on the MDGs is gaining mo-mentum. The continent continues to make steadyprogress on most of the goals. And even thoughit is unlikely to achieve all the targets by 2015, therate of progress on several indicators – includingprimary school enrolment, gender parity in pri-mary school enrolment, the proportion of seatsheld by women in national parliament, HIV/AIDSprevalence rates and the share of women in non-agricultural wage employment – is accelerating(table 1). Indeed, in some cases Africa exceedsregions such as South-eastern Asia, Latin Americaand the Caribbean, and Western Asia. This is bothremarkable and commendable, though compla-cency must not be allowed creep in.Poverty is declining slowly and decent jobs arehard to findBoth the rate of poverty and the absolute numberof poor in Africa declined during 1990–2008. Ex-cluding North Africa, the rate of poverty in Africafell from 56.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent, driven inpart by strong economic growth of the past decadeand a decline in the proportion of workers belowthe poverty line ($1.25 a day). Nevertheless, decentjobs are at a premium in Africa as the majority ofjobs are in the informal sector, which generally has
  19. 19. OverviewAssessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012xxlow incomes, low productivity and poor workingconditions. Vulnerable employment accounts forsome 70 per cent of employment growth – andis largely overrepresented by women.Food price increases are a barrier to reducingmalnutritionThe proportion of children under five who aremalnourished in Africa (excluding North Africa)declined only marginally, between 1990 and 2009,despite a reduction in the poverty rate. Contrib-uting to the sluggish decline was the continuedescalation in food prices, which has invariablyhad an adverse impact, particularly on the foodbudgets of lower-income groups. Girls and ruraldwellers are the most affected.More children are in primary school, butretaining them requires more effortNet primary enrolment in most African countriesshows tremendous gains, with ratios exceeding90 per cent in several countries. Completion rates,however, have seen little progress, and are as lowas 33 per cent in some countries. Predictably,dropout rates are higher among girls than boys.Teacher absenteeism, late age entry by children inprimary school cycles, poor health and nutritionalstatus of pupils, financial constraints, distance toschool and quality of educational facilities aresome of the factors affecting educational qualityand completion rates.Gender parity and women’s empowerment – aglass half fullAfrican countries have made significant stridesin promoting gender parity in primary educa-tion. But they need to do more at secondary andtertiary levels to fully exploit women’s intellectualcapacities. And although gender parity in paidnon-agricultural employment is observed in theservices sector (where women usually outnum-ber men), the reverse is true for higher-payingindustrial jobs, which may stoke gender wagedisparities because wages differ across sectors,skills and occupations. In politics, Africa needs tomove beyond women’s participation to improvingtheir capacity for contributing to developmentdiscussions and outcomes.Lagging health indicatorsPerformance on health indicators such as infant,under-five and maternal mortality is still improv-ing but not fast enough to achieve the goals. Im-munization coverage, in contrast, has expandedrapidly and only two countries record less than 50per cent coverage.Access to contraceptives is reducing maternaldeathsProgress in reducing maternal deaths stems largelyfrom declining fertility rates, helped by greateraccess to contraceptives. Yet almost one in fourwomen in Africa who wish to space or delay theirnext pregnancy cannot do so because of lackof access to contraceptives, failure to empowerwomen to use contraceptives and a mismatchbetween the types of contraceptives desired andthose provided.Funding cuts threaten progress on the HIV/AIDS frontAfrica appears to be starting to win the battleagainst HIV/AIDS. This is evidenced by a fall in theprevalence rate (particularly among women), asteep decline in the regional rate of new infections(the incidence rate), a reduction in the number ofAIDS-related deaths and a drop in mother-to-childtransmission of HIV/AIDS. Behavioural change
  20. 20. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 xxiOverviewand access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) haveunderpinned the HIV/AIDS turnaround in Africa.Sustaining access to ART in an uncertain fundingenvironment will, however, present a challengeto the countries most affected by the disease.Indeed, the announced cancellation of Round 11of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis andMalaria (the Global Fund) could lead to reversalsin other vertical funding schemes.1Malaria-related deaths are down but access toeffective drugs is limitedMalaria mortality rates in Africa have declined bymore than a third since 2000 owing to increasedprevention and control measures. But the mosteffective treatment regimens – artemisinin-basedcombination therapies – still account for only a tinyportion of total treatment.Environmental challenges persistPoor sanitation, limited access to improved drink-ing water sources and declining forest cover areamong the most pressing environmental challengesfacing the continent – and climate change is likelyto make them worse. But more positively, carbondioxide (CO2) emissions have stabilized in most Af-rican countries, and the majority of countries havelowered their consumption of ozone-depletingsubstances. Furthermore, twenty-seven countrieshave listed improvements in the share of protectedterrestrial and marine areas.1  Programmes that target resources at specific healthproblems.Official development assistance is important,but diversifying the assistance portfolio iscrucialOfficial development assistance (ODA) in Africa’sdevelopment is important, but African policymakersare urged to diversify their portfolio of such fund-ing so as to maximize the volume of resources andminimize exposure to funding shocks. In addition,promoting African products’ access to global marketsprovides an opportunity for growing out of aid. Tradeis vital for Africa’s development, and the continuedgrowth of Aid for Trade (AfT) commitments, whichare growing faster than ODA, are welcomed. Still,AfT’s concentration in a few countries is a concernthat requires an immediate remedy.Informing the post-2015 agendaAccelerating progress to achieve the MDGs willrequire an integrated approach that takes intoaccount the inter-linkages among goals and indi-cators. Yet it is not enough to reach the MDGs–progress must be kept up after that to make adifference to the lives of ordinary people. Thatmomentum will require policymakers to ensureequal access to basic social services without com-promising such services’ quality. Sustainabilityalso hinges on the capacity of African countriesto continue providing critical services such as ARTand other essential drugs, even without verticalfunds. Ultimately, African countries will have totransform their economies in ways that not onlysupport rapid and inclusive growth but also gener-ate enough domestic resources to offset shortfallsin external financing.
  21. 21. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 1Section II: Tracking progressGoal 1: Eradicate extremepoverty and hungerAlthough Africa has experienced rapid economicgrowth in the past decade, this has not translatedinto commensurate reductions in poverty andhunger. Nor is the growth rich in jobs.The slow pace of poverty reduction has beenlinked to inadequate and inconsistent growth,high population growth, low growth elasticityof poverty2and persistently high levels of genderand geographical inequalities. Indeed, the burdenof poverty in the continent is disproportionatelyborne by women and rural dwellers.Reducing poverty is not only an end in itself. It isalso a means to accelerate progress for the rest of2  The growth elasticity of poverty measures the reductionin poverty associated with a unit increase in growth. Thehigher the growth elasticity the greater the effects of growthon poverty reduction.the MDGs. For instance, raising people’s purchas-ing power (especially women’s) often has largepositive effects on families’ education and healthdecisions: people who live above the poverty lineand have stable jobs are more capable of educat-ing their children, of facilitating access to basicmedical services and of contributing to decisionsthat affect their lives and livelihoods – and thoseof their children (box 1.1). Progress on this indica-tor has positive knock-on effects that create avirtuous circle between Goal 1 and other MDGs.33  As will be seen throughout this report, the outcomes ofone MDG frequently affect those of others.Box 1.1 The importance of early nourishmentWell-nourished children have strong immune systems which reduce their chances of dying prematurelyfrom communicable diseases. Infants who are undernourished in the first 36 months of lives can sufferirreparable damage to their physical and mental development, debilitating them throughout their life.Malnutrition affects children’s cognitive learning, educational performance and even status in life.When they eventually reach adulthood, such individuals are likely to give birth to another generationof low-birth-weight babies.Source: Victora et al. (2008).
  22. 22. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 20122Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerTarget 1A: Halve between 1990 and 2015the proportion of people whose income isless than $1.25 a dayIndicator 1.1: Proportion of people livingbelow $1.25 (PPP)4a dayPoverty is on a slow decline in Africa and isunlikely to meet the targetBased on the World Bank’s poverty estimatesfor 2008, the developing world was very closeto reaching the global target of halving incomepoverty by 2015. Despite the deleterious effectsof the triple crises of fuel, food and finance, theoverall share of the developing world’s populationliving on less than $1.25 a day in 2008 was 22per cent, just about 0.4 percentage points abovethe 2015 target of 21.6 per cent. This translatesinto 1.29 billion people in 2008 who lived on lessthan $1.25 a day, compared with 1.91 billion in1990. This is the first time, since 1981, that boththe poverty rate and the number of poor in allsix regions of the developing world declined atthe same time. This success can be linked to thedramatic progress in populous countries like China,Indonesia and Brazil.5Like the other regions, Africa also experienced adecline in the poverty rate as well as the absolutenumber of poor people. However, its rate of declinein poverty is too slow to achieve the target by 2015.For instance, the proportion of people living on less4  Purchasing power parity.5  These countries reached the income poverty target for2015 in 2008: China (from 60.2 per cent in 1990 to 13.1per cent in 2008), Indonesia (from 54.3 per cent in 1990 to22.6 per cent in 2008) and Brazil (from 13.7 per cent in 1990to 6.0 per cent in 2008). Compiled from World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY?page=4,(updatedFebruary 2012).than $1.25 a day in Africa (excluding North Africa)decreased marginally from 56.5 per cent in 1990to 52.3 per cent in 2005 and further to 47.5 percent in 2008. Only East Asia and the Pacific, andthe Middle East and North Africa have reachedthe target (figure 1.1).Africa (excluding North Africa) made the least pro-gress in reducing poverty. It is about 41 per centoff the 2015 target, versus 25 per cent in SouthAsia and 6.1 per cent in Latin America. Takingan annual average, poverty declined by only 0.5per cent in Africa (excluding North Africa) from1990 to 2008, but by 2.3 per cent in East Asiaand the Pacific and by about 1.0 per cent in SouthAsia. The difference in economic growth elasticityof poverty among the three regions explains theregional disparities in performance on this indica-tor. (See table 1.2 below and the accompanyingdiscussion).In contrast with the past trend where the numberof people in extreme poverty (below $1.25 a day)has increased considerably in Africa (excludingNorth Africa) from 289 million (1990) to 394 mil-lion (2005), the trend was reversed by 2008. Thenumber of people living below that threshold fellby about 9.0 million. Compared with the $1.00per day poverty line, the fall was substantial –about 32 million people moved out of extremepoverty (figure 1.2). However, about 3.2 millionpeople fell below the $2.00-a-day poverty line,suggesting vulnerability between the $1.25 and$2.00-a-day lines.This new poverty dimension hits some of themiddle class that plays a critical role in Africa’sgrowth process, and confirms the finding fromAfDB (2011) that, although Africa’s middle class
  23. 23. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 3Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerhas grown over the past 30 years, some segmentsremain vulnerable. Addressing the insecurity of thisclass should remain an important policy focus forAfrican governments.Figure 1.2 People in Africa (excluding North Africa) are moving out of poverty butvulnerability is higher among the middle class, 1990–2008-505101520253035$1.0 a dayMillionpeople$1.25 a day $2.0 a daySource: Compiled from World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY?page=4, updated February 2012.Figure 1.1 Proportion of population living below $1.25 a day (2005 PPP), 1990–20080102030405060701990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008PercentEast Asia and Pacific Latin America and the CaribbeanMiddle East and North Africa Africa, excluding North AfricaSouth AsiaSource: Compiled from World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY?page=4, updated February 2012.
  24. 24. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 20124Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerThe current pace of poverty reduction is too slowfor the continent to achieve this goal by 2015,although it is faster than historical trends. Extremepoverty for Africa (excluding North Africa) is fore-cast at 35.8 per cent in 2015 against the previousforecast of 38 per cent (UN, 2011).Recent national poverty data are scant. Of 25countries with recent data on this indicator frominternational organizations, 20 countries showimprovement.6Tunisia, Egypt, Cameroon andGuinea have achieved the target while Senegal,Gambia, Swaziland, Uganda and Mauritania arevery close to halving extreme poverty, at about5 percentage points from the 2015 target (fig-ure 1.3). Ghana, South Africa, Mali and Niger areabout 10 percentage points away. Five countries(Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria andMorocco) regressed on this indicator.Key drivers behind progress in some countriesinclude narrowing inequality, falling fertility, in-creasing wage employment, rising livestock pro-duction (box 1.2) and improving access to socialprotection (box 1.3). Rwanda’s performance, forexample, was made possible by the past decade’sgrowth, which showed resilience in the face of thetriple crises. This performance is repeated in theimpressive growth of per capita income in manycountries. For instance, 24 of 53 countries morethan doubled their per capita income from 1990to 2010, led by Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Nigeria,6  Some of the countries have just conducted national pov-erty surveys with new estimates. For instance, evidence fromRwanda’s 2010/11 household survey reveals that the incidenceof poverty fell by about 12 percentage points between2005/6 and 2010/11 from 56.7 per cent to 44.9 per cent.Cape Verde, Egypt, South Africa and Mauritius.7These countries (except Cape Verde) are resource-rich countries – an indication that most of thembenefited from the commodity boom of the pastdecade (World Bank, 2011a).Poverty in Africa is concentrated in ruralareas and affects men and women differentlyPoverty in Africa is spatial, with a higher preva-lence of rural poverty. All 37 countries with datafor this indicator exhibit a wide disparity betweenurban and rural poverty. Rural poverty is at leastthree times as high as urban poverty in Morocco,Egypt, Ghana, Zambia, Cameroon, Cape Verdeand Rwanda (figure 1.4).The deplorable state of rural infrastructure, paucityof rural livelihoods and youth employment, limitedaccess to high-quality education and high rates ofchild labour are key drivers of rural poverty (FAO,IFAD and ILO, 2010). Policies for integrated ruraldevelopment remain crucial to addressing thisimbalance. Rwanda (see box 1.3) and Ethiopia(box 1.4) show what can be done.The second insight is that many countries have“feminized” poverty: relative to men, womenare disproportionately affected in some countriesincluding, in descending order, Egypt, Cameroon,Morocco, Kenya, Cape Verde, South Africa, Guineaand Madagascar (figure 1.5).Poverty is declining slowly in AfricaSeveral factors may account for this. Women’swork in the home often prevents them from havingwage employment. And when they do earn wages,7  Authors’ computations from World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/gender-statistic, updated April2011.
  25. 25. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 5Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerFigure 1.3 Change in the share of people living below $1.25 a day, various years,1990–2010-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40Tunisia (1990–2005)Percentage changeEgypt (1991–2008)Cameroon (1996–2007)Guinea 1991–2007)Senegal (1991–2005)Gambia (1998–2003)Swaziland (1995–2010)Uganda (1992–2009)Mauritania (1993–2008)Ghana (1992–2006)South Africa (1993–2009)Mali (1995–2010)Niger (1992–2008)Burkina Faso (1994–2009)Ethiopia (1995–2005)Mozambique (1996–2008)Morocco (1991–2007)Nigeria (1992–2010)Madagascar (1993–2010)Kenya (1992–2005)Côte dIvoire (1993–2008)Sources: Compiled from World Bank Database, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY and http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/gender-statistics, updated February 2012.
  26. 26. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 20126Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungertheir work tends to be undervalued. Women workmostly in low-wage jobs and in poor conditions.Restricted access to economic resources and lack ofeducation are also important in feminizing poverty.Ethiopia and the Central African Republic (CAR)have a more gender-balanced distribution of pov-erty. Further still, poverty is biased against menin most East African countries (Tanzania, Uganda,Rwanda and Burundi). This calls for a compre-hensive action to achieve poverty reduction withbetter targeting of identified vulnerable groups.Why is poverty declining so slowly in Africa? Severalfactors account for the slow progress on povertyreduction – economic, demographic and social.Political instability and conflict also undermineprogress in many African countries. Some of thecritical factors are highlighted below.Insufficient and inconsistent economic growthThe size and consistency of growth required forsignificant poverty reduction are yet to be fullyrealized. Africa on average needed to grow ataround 7 per cent a year for countries to halvethe proportion of people living below the povertyline between 1998 and 2015 (UNECA, 1999). Butin 2000–2010 average growth – aggregate andper capita – fell short of the required rate in eachAfrican sub-region (table 1.1). (The widest shortfallswere in East and West Africa.)Box 1.2 Livestock farming helps to reduce rural poverty in Burkina FasoBurkina Faso cut poverty by 37.3 per cent from 1994 to 2009, aided by livestock farming. This initiativeis also contributing to food security and human development in rural areas. In 2007/08, income fromlivestock covered 56 per cent of households’ food needs, 42 per cent of their health expenses and 16per cent of children’s educational costs. Evidence from Government of Burkina Faso and UNDP (2011)shows a high, inverse correlation between rural poverty and livestock activity.In addition, the livestock sector has helped to accelerate economic growth and stabilize the economy.In 2009, it contributed 18.8 per cent of total national income and 14.2 per cent of exports. The sector’sperformance is, however, impeded by bottlenecks, primarily difficulties in accessing the following:capital and pastoral resources (including finance, animal, grazing land and other livestock infrastruc-ture); inputs including livestock feed and veterinary services; and appropriate support and advice (suchas extension services). Also, livestock receives inadequate budgetary allocation, and is over-reliant onforeign resources.UNDP has therefore worked with the government to develop an MDG acceleration framework on foodsecurity. A priority action plan has been developed on food security, with an emphasis on increasinglivestock productivity and facilitating access to livestock products and their use.The government has also introduced an Operational Action Plan of the National Livestock Policy(2010–2015). A simulation analysis reveals that if the current bottlenecks are eased, the plan could raiseeconomic growth by about 1.0 per cent a year and generate sharp rises in rural household incomes,helping to reduce the incidence of poverty by at least 25 per cent by 2015.Sources: Ministère de l’Economie et des Finances et Système des Nations Unies Burkina Faso (2010); Government of BurkinaFaso and UNDP (2011).
  27. 27. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 7Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerBox 1.3 Rwanda accelerates poverty reduction by reducing inequality, wideningsocial protection and improving access to creditOver the past five years, Rwanda has translated its economic growth into poverty reduction country-wide because growth has been inclusive and accompanied by falling inequality – unlike the previousfive years.In that earlier period (2000/01 to 2005/06), income growth was higher among richer groups, especiallyat the top, whereas in the second period (2006–2011) growth benefited lower-income groups. Moretechnically, the ratio of the 90th percentile of consumption to the 10th fell between 2005/06 and2010/11. It had increased sharply in the previous half decade, when inequality (measured by the Ginicoefficient) worsened from 0.51 to 0.52.The inclusive second-period growth narrowed income inequality to 0.49, lower than in 2000/1. Allprovinces (apart from Northern Province) shared in the growth’s inclusiveness as their inequality nar-rowed – in short, most of the population shared in the benefits of growth.Other factors reducing poverty include:• greater access to electricity of domestic dwellings (6.5 per cent more households used electricityfor lighting in 2006–2011);• a rise in the share of households’ agricultural output marketed across regions from 22 per cent in2006 to 27 per cent in 2011;1• participation in social protection, such as the Ubudehe scheme, the Rural Sector Support Projectand the Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme Direct Support, in which 8 per cent, 5 per cent and 1per cent of households benefited (according to the Third Integrated Household Living ConditionsSurvey); and• better access to credit (although access is biased toward urban households, Kigali and EasternProvinces improved strongly).Still, the government could focus more on addressing rural poverty, especially by improving farmers’living conditions. It should also improve the coverage and efficiency of social protection. And accessto credit – still biased against rural households – requires further deepening.1. The rate increases with income quintile: the poorest quintile sells only 15 per cent of its harvest, the second-poorest19 per cent and the fourth 25 per cent.Sources: NISR (2011); NISR and UNDP (2007).
  28. 28. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 20128Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerFigure 1.4 Rural poverty remains high and pervasive in Africa0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Morocco (2007)Uganda (2009)Egypt (2008)Ghana (2006)Cameroon(2007)Cape Verde (2007)Namibia (2003)Burkina Faso (2003)Botswana (2003)Rwanda (2005)Chad (2003)Malawi (2004)Mauritania (2000)Mali (2006)Zambia (2008)Benin (2003)Côte dIvoire (2008)Gabon (2003)Guinea (2007)Kenya (2005)Burundi (2006)Comoros (2004)Ethiopia (2005)Senegal (2005)Niger (2007)Togo (2006)Gambia (2003)Lesotho (2003)Nigeria (2004)São Tomé and Príncipe (2001)Sierra Leone (2003)CAR (2008)Mozambique (2008)Guinea-Bissau (2002)Madagascar (2005)Liberia (2007)DRC (2006)Urban RuralPer centSource: Compiled from World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.RUHC, accessed February 2012.Note: The poverty definition is based on household consumption per adult equivalent member (including food and non-fooditems), adjusted for differences in prices faced by households between regions, between months of the year and allowing forinflation between one survey round and the next. The extreme poverty line covers food costs only.
  29. 29. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 9Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerBox 1.4 Ethiopia’s rapid poverty reduction is accompanied by rising inequality inrural areas and regional disparitiesWith its development partners, the government is pursuing the overall development objective of broadand sustained economic growth that will rapidly reduce poverty and inequality. This objective forms anintegral part of the Economic Reform Program, which strongly supports approaches to design and carryout welfare-enhancing programmes and to build the government’s analytical capacity for monitoringand evaluating poverty-reduction moves.The proportion of people in Ethiopia living below the poverty line fell from 45.5 per cent in 1995/96 to29.6 per cent in 2010/11, a decline of about one third. Over the period 1995 and 2011, poverty is declin-ing at an annual average of 2.32 per cent as against 0.5 per cent for Africa (excluding North Africa).With appreciable progress like this, Ethiopia is just about 7 percentage points from the 2015 target,and will reach it if it maintains this trend.Between 1995 and 2011, Ethiopia reduced poverty in rural and urban areas by 36.0 and 22.8 per cent,respectively. Rural poverty fell faster during 1995–2005, urban poverty during 2006–2011.The decline in rural poverty, especially in 1995–2005, stems from a wide range of pro-poor programmesin rural areas, such as expansion of improved agricultural technologies, expansion of agricultural ex-tension services, commercialization of smallholder farming agriculture, rural infrastructural develop-ment and access to social protection programmes, especially those relating to productive safety netprogrammes and provision of credit.The progress on urban poverty reduction, especially in 2006–2011, was linked to government effortsto create a favourable environment for private investment, create jobs and distribute subsidized basicfood to the urban poor during high inflation.Although the poverty headcount ratio and poverty gaps are declining, a widening poverty gap be-tween rural and urban areas since 2006 and a rising poverty severity index are issues for urgent policyconsideration. Widening inequality in rural areas is also a concern: the Gini coefficient rose from 0.26to 0.27 there but fell from 0.44 to 0.37 in urban areas during 2006–2011. The poverty disparity amongregions also requires policy and programme attention.On the data front, future household income and consumption expenditure surveys, as well as theassociated poverty analysis, should address the absence of gender-disaggregated data in Ethiopia’spoverty analysis.Source: Federal Republic of Ethiopia (2012).
  30. 30. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201210Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerDue to over-dependence on primary commodities,growth in Africa over the past decade has beennon-inclusive and volatile. The standard devia-tion of growth (a measure of growth volatility) ineach African sub-region during 2000–2010 washigher than the global average of 1.98 – that is,African growth was more volatile. Indeed, of the19 countries that met or surpassed the requiredgrowth rate, only six did so for more than threeconsecutive years. Increasing the rate of growth,and then sustaining it, is vital for reducing povertyquickly in Africa.High population growthHigh population growth seriously weakens the linkbetween economic growth and poverty reduction.It also strains the provision of vital public services,particularly education and health, exacerbatingthe huge pressures on public spending that Af-rica faces owing to its distinct challenges, suchas pervasive malaria and HIV/AIDS. Addressinghigh population growth is fundamental to raisingAfrica’s low human capital and to securing fasterpoverty reduction. Indeed, larger household size isa significant determinant of poverty in numerousAfrican countries, including Kenya, Mauritania,Uganda and Nigeria.8But poverty itself adds to population growth,because poverty and its determinants (such assubsistence agriculture, little education, child fos-tering, the subordinate position of women) tendto perpetuate high fertility (Odusola et al., 1997).Reducing the continent’s high population growth8  See Geda et al. (2005) for Kenya, Coulombe and McKay(1996) for Mauritania, Deininger and Okidi (2003) for Tanza-nia and Odusola et al. (1997) for Nigeria.Figure 1.5 Poverty is higher among women in many countries0102030405060708090Egypt(2008)Cameroon(2007)Morocco(2007)Kenya(2005)CôtedIvoire(2008)Senegal(2005)Niger(2007)SouthAfrica(2006)Guinea(2007)Madagascar(2005)Ethiopia(2005)CAR(2008)Ghana(2006)Mali(2006)Mozambique(2008)Burundi(2006)Rwanda(2005)Uganda(2009)Tanzania(2007)FemalePercentTotalSources: Compiled from World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY and http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/gender-statistics, updated April 2011.
  31. 31. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 11Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungeris important to addressing poverty – as seen inRwanda in recent times (NISR, 2011).Strengthening the links between growth andpoverty reductionOne of the reasons why appreciable economicgrowth has not translated into steep poverty re-duction is the relatively low responsiveness ofpoverty reduction to growth – the growth elas-ticity of poverty. That absolute value of elasticityhas increased in some countries since the 1990s,implying that economic growth has had an in-creasingly positive effect on poverty reduction. Forinstance, the growth elasticity of poverty rose from1.75 in 1990–1996 to about 3.0 in 2000–2007 inTunisia; from about 1.0 to about 2.0 in Maurita-nia; and from about 0.9 to about 2.0 in Ethiopia.Yet it was still less than 1.0 during 2000–2007in many countries, including Burkina Faso andZambia (Fosu, 2011).The average growth elasticity of poverty in Africa(absolute value) of 1.82 is less (sometimes far less)than in other regions (table 1.2). In East Africaand Southern Africa it is less than half that ofLatin America and the Caribbean. Its weightedaverage for resource-rich countries, defined ascountries with an average ratio of resource rentsto GDP during the past decade of over 15 percent, is 1.16.9This elasticity is lower than any ofthe regional averages and highlights the weaklinks between the resource sector and the widereconomy in these countries.10The low growth elasticity of poverty marks a weakconnection between growing sectors of the econ-omy and the sectors where the poor work, as wellas spatial disparities between areas with strong9  Only Burundi, Congo, DRC, Gabon, Liberia and Nigeriameet these criteria for which elasticity data are available.10  See Fosu (2011) for the required growth rates of real GDPand population, and economic growth elasticity of poverty forAfrica to halve poverty between 2010 and 2025.Table 1.1 Estimated annual GDP growth required to meet the poverty reduction target,and actual growth attained, 2000–2010 (%)African sub-re-gionRequired percapita growtha(%)Actualper capitagrowthb,2000–2010 (%)Required aggre-gate growtha(%)Actual aggre-gate growth,2000–2010b (%)Standard devia-tion of growthNorth 3.60 3.09 5.60 4.91 2.06West 4.71 2.66 7.61 5.31 2.64Central 3.90 2.15 6.70 4.67 4.30East 5.40 2.89 8.12 5.72 3.52Southern 3.80 2.58 6.20 4.58 3.68Total average(excluding NorthAfrica)4.19(4.39)2.79(2.71)6.79(7.16)5.22(5.30)3.00(3.26)Source: Authors’ computations.a. UNECA (1999).b. World Bank (2011a).
  32. 32. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201212Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungergrowth and areas where the poor live. A multitudeof interconnected factors influence the responseof poverty reduction to economic growth, butthe growth elasticity in Africa is underpinned bythe absence of a diversified economy, poor accessto credit and insurance, low human and physicalcapital and weak systems of social protection.Most African countries still rely heavily on extrac-tive sectors for export, such as solid minerals andfuel, and these sectors have only weak connec-tions to the wider economy – they lack forwardand backward linkages to sectors where the poorare employed. High mineral and fuel-commodityprices have driven growth in many of the Africancountries that have recorded the fastest growth,such as Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria, and min-erals and fuel accounted for the largest share ofAfrican exports during 1996–2008 (AfDB, OECDand UNECA, 2010).Rural areas’ limited access to modern infrastructure,such as good roads, electricity and telecommunica-tions, has also reduced the potential contributionof growth. Thus the large rural population, lackingadequate access to physical and social infrastruc-ture, is a major impediment to reducing povertyand inequality. To take an example, one studyhas shown that Ugandan communities more than10 kilometres from the nearest municipality aremore likely to have a higher incidence of povertythan people living in municipalities (Deiningerand Okidi, 2003). It also found that householdsliving in urban areas or with access to electricitywere significantly more likely to escape poverty,indicating the importance of infrastructure to aTable 1.2 Growth and inequality elasticities of povertyElasticitiesGrowth InequalityNorth Africa -2.93 4.34West Africa -1.67 1.76Central Africa -1.76 2.08East Africa -1.39 1.36Southern Africa -1.39 1.45Africa (excluding North Africa) -1.51 1.56Africa -1.82 2.16East Asia and Pacific -2.48 3.49Eastern Europe and Western Asia -4.22 6.85Latin America and the Caribbean -3.08 5.00Middle East and Central Asia -2.75 3.91South Asia -2.10 2.68Source: Fosu (2011).
  33. 33. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 13Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerhousehold’s growth opportunities. Access to credit,insurance and social protection also strengthensthe linkage between growth and poverty reduc-tion. Thus improving rural access to infrastructureas well as credit, health and educational services,which have generally lagged behind economicgrowth rates, should be given priority.The strengthening of the relationship betweengrowth and poverty reduction in Africa has implica-tions for the annual rate of GDP growth requiredto halve the proportion of the population livingon less than $1.25 (Fosu, 2011).Regions with ahigher growth elasticity of poverty and slowerpopulation growth usually require slower GDPgrowth to reach the target by 2025.For instance, during 2010–2025, North Africa (theAfrican region with the highest growth elasticityof poverty) requires 2.95 per cent annual growth(table 1.3). East and West Africa, with the highestpopulation growth rates, require 5.90 per centand 5.96 per cent annual GDP growth. SouthernAfrica in contrast, with the lowest growth elasticityof poverty, requires 5.60 per cent GDP growth ayear to halve poverty.An important caveat to the estimates in table 1.3is that higher growth will be required if, over theperiod, inequality increases and the growth elas-ticity of poverty decreases. The latter may reflectgreater divergence in growth and poverty reduc-tion among countries.Wide inequality undermines efforts to reducepovertyThe responsiveness of poverty to economic growthis also weakened by wide economic inequality inAfrica. Initial inequality significantly reduces thegains from growth that accrue to the poor (Raval-lion, 2001; Fosu, 2011), although equally it reducesthe adverse impact on the poor from economiccontraction (Ravallion, 1997). While the inequalityelasticity of poverty in Africa is the lowest of anyregion worldwide (see table 1.2), a percentageTable 1.3 Annual GDP growth required to halve poverty between 2010 and 2025Africa Region Required per cap-ita GDP growth(%)Populationgrowth (%)Required aggre-gate GDP growth(%)Growth elasticityof povertyNorth 1.39 1.56 2.95 -2.93West 3.41 2.55 5.96 -1.67Central 2.83 2.46 5.29 -1.76East 3.19 2.71 5.90 -1.39Southern 3.55 2.05 5.60 -1.39Total average (exclud-ing North Africa)2.60(3.31)2.31(2.52)5.21(5.84)-1.82(-1.51)Note: The period is 15 years to allow time comparability with the estimated rate computed by UNECA (1999).Sources: Fosu (2011); authors’ computations based on World Bank (2011a).
  34. 34. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201214Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerchange in inequality has a more significant impacton poverty than a percentage change in growth.Inequality in the distribution of assets, such as land,as well as the use of public services, such as educa-tion and health, hinders poverty reduction in muchof Africa. Inequalities in access to education areparticularly wide in several West African countries,including Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali, while inKenya, Malawi and Tanzania the differences arequite small (Gauci and Gueye, 2003). Disparities ineducational access reflect lack of physical access(particularly in rural areas where the poor tend tobe concentrated) and the direct and indirect costsassociated with educating a child. All these factorscontribute to higher dropout rates.Target 1B: Achieve full and productiveemployment and decent work for all,including women and young peopleEmployment is projected to grow but higherproductivity is key to decent jobsThe world is still grappling with the effects of theglobal financial crisis on employment generation.The world’s average annual employment growthof 1.1 per cent in the post-crisis (2008–2011) yearswas below the pre-crisis (2002–2007) average of1.8 per cent, and is projected to stay below pre-crisis rates in 2012–2016 (table 1.4).Africa’s employment growth over the next halfdecade is expected to exceed the global average.Improvements in the business climate in someAfrica countries and the drive for African marketsby both the emerging and Western countries areexpected to create employment opportunitiesin the region. However, labour productivity isexpected to decline over 2014–2016.Table 1.4 Africa has potential for generating jobs but its productivity growth is too lowGroupings Average annual employment growth (%) Average annual labour productivity growth (%)2002–2007 2008–2011 2012–2013 2014–2016 2002–2007 2008–2011 2012–2013 2014–2016World 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.5 1.6 2.6 3.2Developed econo-mies and EU 1.0 -0.3 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.5 1.5 2CSEE (non-EU) andCIS 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 6.1 1.1 3.5 4.0East Asia 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 8.6 7.8 7.5 8.1South-east Asiaand the Pacific 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.4 4.1 2.6 3.5 4.0South Asia 2.2 1.0 2.0 1.9 5.4 6.1 4.8 5.4Latin America 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.7 1.8Middle East 4.5 3.2 2.8 2.5 0.9 0.9 1.2 2.0North Africa 3.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.4 1.8 0.8 2.8Africa (excludingNorth Africa) 3.1 2.8 3 3 2.5 1.5 2.3 1.9Source: ILO (2012).Note: CIS = Commonwealth of Independent States; CSEE = Central and South-eastern Europe; EU = European Union.
  35. 35. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 15Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerIndicator 1.4: Growth rate of GDP per personemployedLabour productivity is central to sustaining eco-nomic growth, improving livelihoods and reducingpoverty and inequality. Factors that drive it includeinvestment in capital (such as machinery and equip-ment), better organizational capacity, revitalizationof physical and institutional infrastructure, gainsin health and skills of workers (“human capital”)and the generation of new technology.Yet labour productivity growth is low in Africacompared with East Asia, South-east Asia andthe Pacific, and South Asia (figure 1.6 and seetable 1.4). In North Africa, it was only one quar-ter of that in East Asia during 2008–2011, and inAfrica (excluding North Africa) less than a fifth.Worse, North Africa’s labour productivity growthis expected to fall in 2012 and 2013, largely owingto political upheavals, but it is set to rise in themedium term.In Africa (excluding North Africa), labour produc-tivity growth decelerated in the aftermath of theglobal crisis, and is expected to decline slightlyover the long term. The decline is predicated ongovernments’ increased creation of short-term,low-skilled jobs to diffuse tensions that may arisefrom high youth unemployment rates.Indicator 1.5: Employment-to-population ratioGlobal employment-to-population ratios declined(but not homogenously) in all global regions during2002–2011. But in Africa (excluding North Africa),the ratio increased by 1.5 per cent over the period– female employment accounting for four fifths ofthe gain. In North Africa the increase was higherat 2.4 per cent, with women accounting for threefifths (ILO, 2012).North Africa’s employment-to-population ratiostood at 43.6 per cent in 2011, against a globalaverage of 60.3 per cent that year. Agriculture andFigure 1.6 Average annual labour productivity growth0123456789102002–2007 2008–2011 2012–2013 2014–2016East AsiaPercentNorth Africa Africa (excluding North Africa)Source: Authors’ computations on ILO (2011 and 2012): data for 2002–2007 are actual, 2008–2011 are estimates; and post-2011are forecasts.
  36. 36. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201216Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerservices accounted for 28.4 per cent and close to50 per cent, respectively, of total employment. Inboth sectors, poor conditions of service and lowsalaries predominate. The business environmentin North Africa is not conducive to creating smalland medium-sized enterprises, and labour marketinstitutions are not fully developed.At an estimated 64.7 per cent in 2011, the rest ofAfrica has a higher ratio than North Africa (andthe global average), but there, too, many of thejobs are vulnerable. Indeed, manufacturing em-ployment accounts for a mere 8.5 per cent of thetotal (ILO, 2012).African governments have launched a raft of ini-tiatives to generate jobs, ranging from creatingbusiness-friendly macroeconomic and regulatoryenvironments for the private sector to establish-ing public works programmes for tackling chronicemployment. Although often having a negligi-ble impact on the poverty headcount, such pro-grammes can help reduce the depth of povertyamong participating households (box 1.5).Some new approaches to youth unemployment– building on experience – link social protectionto acquiring skills and creating synergy with otherMDGs (box 1.6).Indicator 1.6: Proportion of employed peopleliving below $1.25 a dayWorldwide, the number of working poor (em-ployed persons earning less than $1.25 a day) hasfallen to 435 million – a drop of 233 million since2000 and 38 million since 2007. This decrease hasbeen heavily influenced by a rapid decline in theworking poor in China and in East Asia generally(figure 1.7).Box 1.5 Lessons from African public works programmesA review by the Overseas Development Institute of nearly 170 public works programmes in Africa(excluding North Africa) provides some lessons on how to use such programmes to accelerate povertyreduction.Most of the public works were largely donor funded (83 per cent), predominantly food for work (60 percent), and divided equally between those whose primary objective was the provision of safety nets orsocial protection among households, and those using infrastructure construction and rehabilitationto promote aggregate job creation. Only 4 per cent of the programmes were for income insurance.The gross wage from a public works programme represented a significant share of total household in-come in most countries among participating households. In Malawi and Ethiopia, however, the transferwas insufficient to meet household consumption needs and in South Africa it was too little to close thepoverty gap. Most programmes had a negligible impact on reducing headcount poverty, although theyhelped to cut the depth of poverty among participating households. Tight targeting was important.The review revealed a policy misalignment. For instance, programmes offering short-term employmentand aiming to provide social protection or promoting graduation out of chronic poverty might nothave been as effective as intended if they did not guarantee employment.Source: McCord and Slater (2009).
  37. 37. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 17Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerIn Africa, the situation has improved but thenumber of working poor is still high. They ac-counted for 39.1 per cent of total employment inAfrica (excluding North Africa) in 2011, a declineof 15.7 percentage points between 2000 and2010 that stems from two main factors. First, themoderately good economic growth of the lastdecade has, plausibly, pushed wages above theinternational poverty line. Second, affirmativeaction has upgraded the conditions of the work-ing poor. Examples include Algeria’s employmentpolicy and South Africa’s New Growth Path, whichintroduced measures to tackle poverty and inequal-ity through social transfers. Many other countriesraised national minimum wages during 2008–2011,such as Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Mauritania,Nigeria and Tanzania.North Africa has also shown a drop in the shareof the working poor, although from a much lowerinitial level, and the situation there compares wellwith East Asia. African governments give greaterpriority to addressing unemployment than reducingthe number of working poor, however, and policyattention on the working poor is still critical foraccelerating poverty reduction.Indicator 1.7: Proportion of own-accountand contributing family workers in totalemploymentGlobal vulnerable employment was estimated at1.52 billion in 2011. Although East Asia managedto cut the absolute number of people in vulner-able employment by 40 million after 2007, theBox 1.6 Oyo State Government’s (Nigeria) youth employment scheme is creatingsynergy with other MDGsThe Youth Empowerment Scheme of Oyo State, Nigeria, is generating jobs for youths and aiming tocreate synergy with other MDGs. Established in July 2011, the overall goal is twofold.First, it aims to generate 20,000 jobs annually in agriculture, public works, health and education, andenvironmental services. Second, it seeks to build capacity in life-skills, including cognitive and entre-preneurial skills, supported by seed money to build a critical mass of small entrepreneurs for the state.In less than a year, it has created 20,000 jobs in different sectors: 5,000 in agriculture and related activi-ties, 3,000 as traffic control officers and 2,500 as environmental officers. The rest were in informationand communications technology, automobile repairs, welding, laboratory technology and music.The scheme has re-activated eight farm settlements, providing a platform for agricultural productionand processing (the settlements were abandoned about two decades ago). Deploying young peopleinto agriculture has started to yield good results as the aged farmers are now being gradually replaced.Elsewhere, chronic traffic congestion in the state capital is being eased and the environmental officersare helping to enforce good sanitation and a clean environment.The main challenge is sustaining the project and scaling it up, as well as replicating it in other statesof the country.Source: Oyo State Government of Nigeria (2012).
  38. 38. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201218Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerfigure increased in Africa (excluding North Africa)by 22 million.In Africa, the informal sector has been the maindriver of job creation – vulnerable work accountedfor 70 per cent of job growth during 2007–2011.Four out of ten employed people in North Africain 2011 were in vulnerable employment. In Africa(excluding North Africa), vulnerable employmentwas 76.6 per cent, although this marks a decreaseof 3.8 percentage points in the last decade.The vulnerable employment figures are dispropor-tionately driven by women and youths. In NorthAfrica men are less likely (32.2 per cent) to beemployed in vulnerable jobs than women (55.1per cent). For the rest of Africa, the probability isfar higher that a woman (84 per cent) or man (70per cent) is vulnerably employed. The dominanceof the informal sector and the few (or missing)social protection systems partly explain the highproportion of vulnerable workers in Africa (exclud-ing North Africa). This is particularly evident withyouth employment (ILO, 2010c).Youth employment is becoming a matter ofconcernYouth employment has been particularly vulnerableto the global economic situation. In 2011, 74.8million youths were unemployed, an increase ofmore than 4 million since 2007. Young people areworldwide three times as likely to be unemployedand could be a cause of political instability. Youthunemployment is higher in Africa than in East orSouth Asia (ILO, 2012).In the African continent, North Africa has by farthe highest youth unemployment rate, which hashardly budged over the last decade (figure 1.8).Unemployment there affects women and youthsFigure 1.7 Share of working poor in total employment01020304050602000 2007 2010 2011*East Asia South Asia North Africa Africa (excluding North Africa)Percent* = estimates.Source: Authors’ computations from ILO (2012).
  39. 39. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 19Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerheavily. The lethargic growth in the formal jobmarket leads these two most vulnerable groupsto be overrepresented in the informal sector.Unemployment among youths is lower in Africa(excluding North Africa) but employed youths areoverrepresented among the working poor. In Bu-rundi and Liberia, for instance, more than 85 percent of employed youths are working poor (butthe differences between adult and youth workingpoverty rates are small).Distinct from North Africa, the informal labourmarket in the rest of Africa provides a cushion– albeit vulnerable – for job-seeking youths andwomen. Youths, though, often find it harder tosecure formal work than adults, owing to theirshort work experience and limited professionalnetworks. Hence, even when they find work, ittends to be characterized by low wages, poorworking conditions and few opportunities forskills development. The upshot is higher workingpoverty rates for young people than adults inthe large majority of Central, East, Southern andWest African countries (ILO, 2012). Women facesimilar challenges because of their lower educationand cultural marginalization from labour marketnetworks.Labour market demand and supply determine jobmarket opportunities. Improving job opportuni-ties will therefore require efforts to enhance thecompetitiveness of the labour force and create anenabling environment for domestic and foreigninvestment. Infrastructure development that stimu-lates private investment, especially for electricity,roads and water, is vital for creating employmentin rural and urban areas. Strengthening manage-rial capacities and facilitating access to affordablecredit by micro and small enterprises are vital forFigure 1.8 Youth unemployment trends, 2000–2011051015202530352000 2007 2010 2011*East AsiaPercentSouth Asia North Africa Africa (excluding North Africa)Source: Authors’ computations based on ILO (2012).
  40. 40. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201220Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerthe survival and growth of local businesses, as wellas overall economic growth. Special programmesfor developing the skills of young entrepreneursin the various sectors are therefore needed forsustained income and employment generation.Target 1C: Halve, between 1990 and2015, the proportion of people whosuffer from hungerProgress on this target is slow. The 2011 GlobalHunger Index from the International Food PolicyResearch Institute (IFPRI) shows an improvementof 18 per cent during 1990–2011 in Africa (exclud-ing North Africa), compared with 25 per cent inSouth-east Asia and 39 per cent in North Africa.11The regional aggregate masks wide country vari-ations, from the largest improvements in Ghana,Mauritania, Angola and Congo versus a sharpworsening in the Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC) (figure 1.9). The trend in Central, East, South-ern and West Africa stagnated between 1990 and1996, improved slightly in 2001 and then declinedmore markedly in 2011 (IFPRI et al., 2011).The proportion of people who are malnourishedhas stabilized at 16 per cent of the population, im-plying that nutritional advances have not matcheddeclines in poverty. Increases in international foodprices, which are still higher than before the globalcrisis, are partly to blame (FAO, 2010; UN, 2011).They have had an adverse effect on income andother poverty correlates.11  The index is a multidimensional statistical tool that com-bines three equally weighted indicators: the proportion of theundernourished as a share of the population; the prevalenceof underweight children under the age of five; and the mor-tality rate of children under the age of five.For example, food-price increases render poorconsumers more vulnerable to poverty, becausefood represents a large share of their spending.Similarly, volatility in food prices (large price swings)have large effects on real incomes of smallholdingfarmers. Thus even short episodes of high pricesfor consumers or low prices for farmers can causeproductive assets – land and livestock, for exam-ple – to be sold at low prices, leading to potentialpoverty traps. In addition, small farmers are lesslikely to invest in measures to raise productivitywhen price changes are unpredictable. For netfood consumers, price increases can give rise tocoping mechanisms that defer educational andhealth spending by households, lowering welfareand long-term development.Indicator1.8: Prevalence of underweightchildren under five years of ageIn developing regions, the proportion of childrenunder age five who are underweight declined from30 per cent to 23 per cent during 1990–2009. Allglobal regions with comparable trend data madeprogress, and Eastern Asia, Latin America and theCaribbean, and the Caucasus and Central Asiahave reached or nearly reached the MDG target.South-eastern Asia and North Africa are on track.Africa (excluding North Africa) has not improvedenough to ensure that it will meet the target by2015. Central, East, Southern and West Africaimproved slightly from 27 per cent to 22 per centbetween 1990 and 2009, yet the aggregate fig-ures mask cross-country and gender disparities(figure 1.10), as well as rural–urban gaps.Malnutrition of children has negative spill overson other MDGs, and therefore requires assertive
  41. 41. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2012 21Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerFigure 1.9 Progress in reducing the Global Hunger Index, 1990–2011-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80DRCBurundiComorosCôte dIvoireBotswanaCARZambiaGambiaZimbabweLesothoMadagascarLiberiaSouth AfricaKenyaGuinea-BissauTanzaniaUgandaCameroonChadGuineaMoroccoSierra LeoneTogoRwandaSudanDjiboutiSenegalBurkina FasoMaliBeninNamibiaMauritusEthiopiaNigeriaMozambiqueNigerGabonMalawiCongoAngolaMauritaniaGhanaGlobal Hunger IndexSource: Authors’ computations from IFPRI et al. (2011).Note: A negative number represents progress.
  42. 42. Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 201222Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hungernational policies (box 1.7). It is also an underlyingcause of more than a third of under-five deathsand more than 20 per cent of maternal deaths(UNICEF, 2011b).Figure 1.10 Prevalence of underweight among under-five-year-oldsBoth sexes Female Male0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Tunisia (2006)Algeria (2005)Libya (2007)Swaziland (2007)Egypt (2008)Gabon (2001)Morocco (2004)Equatorial Guinea (2004)Botswana (2000)Congo (2005)Zimbabwe (2006)Ghana (2008)Senegal (2005)Zambia (2007)Malawi (2006)Gambia (2006)Uganda (2006)Kenya (2009)Lesotho (2005)Cameroon (2006)Tanzania (2005)Mauritania (2008)Guinea-Bissau (2008)Namibia (2007)Rwanda (2005)Benin (2006)Liberia (2007)Togo (2008)Guinea (2008)Mozambique (2003)Sierra Leone (2008)CAR (2000)Comoros (2000)Burkina Faso (2009)Nigeria (2008)Mali (2006)DRC (2007)Côte dIvoire (2007)Djibouti (2006)Sudan (2006)Somalia (2006)Chad (2004)Eritrea (2002)Ethiopia (2005)Madagascar (2004)Burundi (2000)Niger (2006)Per centSource: Authors’ computations from WHO (2011).

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