Jobs, Justice and EquityAfricaProgressReport 2012Seizing opportunities in times of global change
2AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012ABOUT THE AFRICA PROGRESS PANELThe Africa Progress Panel (APP) consists of ten distinguished individuals from the private and public sector, whoadvocate on global issues of importance to Africa and the world. Mr Kofi Annan, former Secretary-General ofthe United Nations and Nobel laureate, chairs the APP and is closely involved in its day-to-day work.The Panel’s unique convening power allows it to focus on complex and high-impact issues such as globalgovernance, peace and security, climate change, food security, sustainable economic development, andthe Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). While these problems have immediate ramifications for Africa, theirsolutions require the coming together of a wide range of stakeholders within and outside Africa.The life experiences of Panel members give them a formidable ability to access a wide and deep cross-sectionof society. This means they are well placed to affect change on issues that require the engagement of multiplestakeholders. The Panel’s primary objective is to advocate for shared responsibility between African leaders andtheir international partners to ensure sustainable and equitable development in Africa.about the africa progress REPORTThe Africa Progress Report is the Africa Progress Panel’s flagship publication. Its purpose is to provide an overviewof the progress Africa has made over the previous year. The report draws on the best research and analysisavailable on Africa and compiles it in a refreshing and provocative manner. Through the report, the Panelrecommends a series of policy choices and actions for African policy makers who have primary responsibility forAfrica’s progress, as well as vested international partners and civil society organisations.Olusegun Obasanjo Linah Mohohlo Robert Rubin Tidjane Thiam Muhammad YunusKofi Annan Michel Camdessus Peter Eigen Bob Geldof Graça MachelISBN: 978-2-9700821-0-1
3Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangeACKNOWLEDGEMENTSCaroline Kende-Robb (Africa Progress Panel), Kevin Watkins (Brookings Institution), Peter da Costa (AfricaProgress Panel) and Richard Manning (Oxford University) led the report’s preparation and research.The Africa Progress Panel would like to thank the following contributing authors: Nicholas Cheeseman (OxfordUniversity), Hubert Danso (Africa Investor), Shanta Devarajan (World Bank), Roberto Foa (Harvard University),Charles Lwanga-Ntale (Development Initiatives), Alexandre Marc (World Bank), Stephen N’Degwa (WorldBank), Emmanuel Nnadozie (UNECA), Jürgen Reitmaier (Consultant), Changyong Rhee (Asian DevelopmentBank), Guido Schmidt-Traub (CDC Climat Asset Management).The Africa Progress Panel would also like to acknowledge the valuable contributions of N’Dri Assié-Lumumba(Cornell University), Nina Behrman (Editor), Richard Carey (Founding Co-Chair, China-DAC Study Group), PaulCollier (Oxford University), Jim Cust (Oxford University), Nathalie Delapalme (Mo Ibrahim Foundation), Alan Doss(Kofi Annan Foundation), Jamie Drummond (ONE), Magnus Ericsson (Raw Material Group), Louise Fox (World Bank),Benedikt Franke (Cambridge University), Patricia Geli (World Bank), Barbara Goedde (Kofi Annan Foundation),Alan Hinman (Task Force for Global Health), Andrew Johnston (Editor), Elsie Kanza (World Economic Forum), KarutiKanyinga (South Consulting), Michael Keating (UN), Christoph Lakner (Oxford University), Franklyn Lisk (WarwickUniversity), Carlos Lopes (UNITAR), Strive Masiyiwa (Econet), Festus Mogae (Former President of Botswana andCoalition for Dialogue on Africa), Michael Møller (Consultant), Esther Mwaura (Grassroots Organizations OperatingTogether in Sisterhood), Archbishop Ndungane (African Monitor), Aloysius Ordu (World Bank), Patrick Osakwe(UNCTAD), Sarah Papineau (UNDP), Judith Randel (Development Initiatives), Alastair Robb (UK Department forInternational Development), Valentine Rugwabiza (World Trade Organization), Elisabeth Sandor (OECD), TesfaiTecle (Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa), Carolyn Turk (World Bank), Alyson Warhurst (Maplecroft), andJiajun Xu (Oxford University).The APP would also like to acknowledge the generous support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, theGerman Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and the UK Department for InternationalDevelopment (DFID).Caroline Kende-Robb, Executive DirectorViolaine BeixJared BlochAlinka BrutschPeter da CostaKibrom MehariTemitayo OmotolaCarolina RodriguezZelalem TeferraThe cover design is inspired by the pattern found on the Ethiopian magic scroll of Wälättä-Gabriel from the 19thcentury. Magic scrolls are a traditional form of talismanic and figurative art from the Horn of Africa.Infographics by Carolina Rodriguez in collaboration with Blossom Communications (Milan).This report may be freely reproduced, in whole or in part, provided the original source is acknowledged.SECRETARIATDESIGN AND LAYOUT
4AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012FOREWORD 6INTRODUCTION 8A mixed balance sheet 8A growing demand for equity and justice 9PART I: ‘AFRICA RISING’ – BUT WHILE SOME AFRICANS ARE RISING, OTHERS ARE NOT 131. Economic growth – moving to the premier league 142. The record on poverty – constrained by inequality 163. Looking for work – the employment challenge 20Despite growth, labour markets remain informal 204. Unjust disparities – a brake on progress towards the MDGs 22Poverty and inequality 22Weak progress on hunger 23Education and health – progress and disparities matter 245. The glass “half-empty” perspective 256. Building on the global partnership 29PART II: FIVE GLOBAL TRENDS THAT ARE SHAPING AFRICA 311. Demography and human geography – preparing for the youth surge 32The power of demography 32Urbanisation is reshaping human geography 332. Global food security – more people on a warming planet 37World agriculture – a new era of scarcity 37On the front line – African food security 39The great African land grab 403. Tectonic shifts in economics and politics – the rise of the emerging powers 44Managing integration with emerging markets 46Integrating Chinese finance with development goals 48Creating the wider conditions for growth 494. Science, technology and innovation – fuelling growth and development 51Towards an African agenda for science, technology and innovation 51ICTs continue to exceed expectations 525. The rising tide of citizen action 54Global social protests 54Citizens’ participation in enhancing democratic governance 54PART III: GOVERNANCE FOR A BETTER FUTURE 591. Multiparty democracy – playing by the rules 60Learning from flawed elections 602. The changing map of African conflict and instability 64Escaping conflict 663. Improving business governance 674. Managing natural resources for the public good 69table of contents
5Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangePART IV: EDUCATION – A TWIN CRISIS IN ACCESS AND LEARNING 731. The education progress report 75Inequalities are hampering progress 75Learning outcomes – a weak record 77Skills deficits among Africa’s youth 77Education inequalities in global perspective 782. An agenda for addressing Africa’s education crisis 79The early years 79Access and learning – delivering on the MDG promise 79Aligning education, skills development and employment 803. The role of aid donors 81PART V: MOBILISING AND MANAGING FINANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT 831. Domestic resources are the key to sustainable growth 842. Creating a better climate for foreign direct investment 88Improving the business environment 88Stimulating investment outside the natural resource sector 893. Prospects for concessional finance 90Future levels of aid from traditional donors 90Emerging support for Africa rises 914. Growing African economies and access to ‘harder’ loans 925. Managing official support better 94PART VI: RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 951. Recommendations 962. Conclusions 102ANNEXES 1051. Acronyms 1062. List of boxes 1073. List of figures 1074. References used in the figures 1085. Notes 111
6AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012Annual reports often begin with the observationthat the year in question has been a particularlyeventful one, but rarely has it been as fitting as thisyear. We have seen enormous change across Africaand the world. We have witnessed the spread ofrevolutions, the end of autocratic regimes and thebirth of new democracies. We all held our breathas countries and currencies narrowly escapedcollapse and towering debt burdens threatened tochoke the world economy. Once again, the worldas we know it has changed dramatically in thecourse of months.The “Arab Awakening”, combined with the rise of newsocial movements across the world in 2011, caughteveryone by surprise. The common thread linkingthese movements is the shared sense of frustrationand anger over unresponsive governments, andthe lack of jobs, justice and equity. For societies tofunction and prosper, I have always argued thatwe need three inter-related conditions: economicand social development; peace and security; and,the rule of law and respect for human rights. In thecountries affected by the “Arab Awakening”, therehas been a longstanding and near-total absence ofthe third condition.To the surprise of many, Africa has mostly stood tallthrough all of this. The majority of its 54 countries haveweathered the recurrent financial and economicstorms and have continued to impress as they traversethe road to recovery. A few have even been able totake their place among the world’s top performers inthe economic growth league. There has also beenencouraging progress towards some of the MillenniumDevelopment Goals (MDGs). Many countries haveregistered gains in education, child survival and thefights against killer diseases like HIV/AIDS and malaria.None of this is cause for complacency.It cannot be said often enough, that overall progressremains too slow and too uneven; that too manyAfricans remain caught in downward spirals ofpoverty, insecurity and marginalisation; that too fewpeople benefit from the continent’s growth trendand rising geo-strategic importance; that too muchof Africa’s enormous resource wealth remains inthe hands of narrow elites and, increasingly, foreigninvestors without being turned into tangible benefitsfor its people. When assessing nations, we tend tofocus too much on political stability and economicgrowth at the expense of social development, rule oflaw and respect for human rights.We at the Africa Progress Panel are convinced thatthe time has come to rethink Africa’s developmentpath. Not all inequalities are unjust, but the levels ofinequality across much of Africa are unjustified andprofoundly unfair. Extreme disparities in income areslowing the pace of poverty reduction and hamperingthe development of broad-based economic growth.Disparities in basic life-chances – for health, educationand participation in society – are preventing millionsof Africans from realising their potential, holding backsocial and economic progress in the process. Growinginequality and the twin problems of marginalisationand disenfranchisement are threatening thecontinent’s prospects and undermining the veryfoundations of its recent success.Justice and equity are certainly not new concepts.Here we use them in their broadest sense. By lookingat the triangle of jobs, justice and equity, we underlinethe role of empowerment and equality of opportunityas indispensable for progress and thus particularlypowerful focal points for domestic policy initiativesand international development assistance. Wehighlight jobs because it is through their livelihoodsthat people achieve social progress, for themselvesand for others, and because the need to create jobsfor the continent’s rapidly growing youth populationstands out as among the most pertinent challengesfor Africa’s policymakers. Failure to create jobs andopportunities for a growing and increasingly urbanisedand educated youth will have grave consequences.And we highlight justice and equity because in theeyes of hundreds of millions of Africans both are soconspicuously absent from their lives.forewordBy kofi annan
7Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangeAgainst this backdrop, our report sets out someproposals for change. With the 2015 deadline for theMDGs fast approaching, we urge every governmentin Africa to draw up a plan of action for a “big push”towards the targets. These plans should includeprovisions to reduce inequalities in child survival,maternal health and education. Given the criticalplace of education in poverty reduction and jobcreation, we urge governments to deliver on thecommitment to provide education for all by 2015 – andto strengthen their focus on learning achievement. Wealso urge governments to focus on including womenand girls in education, which is essential for creatingmore just, prosperous and fair societies.Food security and nutrition is another pressing concern.We must never again witness the human tragedy thatunfolded in the Horn of Africa. It is time for Africangovernments and the international community tocome together and build more robust defencesagainst the scourge of Africa. Raising the productivityof smallholder farmers is critical. That is why we call ongovernments to bring these farmers from the peripheryto the centre of national strategies for growth andpoverty reduction. Climate change poses a profoundthreat to African agriculture. Countering that threatwill require international cooperation. It is imperativethat Northern governments act swiftly to financeadaptation to climate change, not least becauseearly investments in infrastructure, water managementand soil conservation will yield high returns. And aneffective food and nutrition security strategy has toinclude safety net provisions both nationally, throughsocial protection programmes, and internationallythrough a more effective humanitarian-responsearchitecture.In this report we highlight a number of global trendsthat will shape Africa’s future. There is a stronglikelihood that the world is moving into an era ofhigher food prices. One effect of that prospect hasbeen to drive a “land grab” in Africa. While foreigninvestment in productive farming can be enormouslybeneficial, governments need to remain vigilant inguarding against speculative activity and the risk ofdisplacement of smallholder African farmers. As theeconomic growth pole of the world economy movesEast, Africa stands to gain from strengthened tradelinks with China and other emerging markets. But it isvital that governments establish trade and investmentpolicies that create incentives for entry into highervalue-added areas of production.Despite growing domestic resources and improvedgovernance and administrative systems, Africanleaders cannot do it alone. They need to be ableto count on the sustained commitment of theinternational community and the fulfilment of its manyoutstanding promises. At a time in which many donorsview their development assistance as expendablebudget items, African leaders need to remindtheir partners of the intrinsic value of seeing it as aninvestment in a common future. Donors also need tohonour and act upon the aid commitments that theymade in 2005.Naturally, the empowerment of Africans in theirsocieties and economies is only one side of the coin.The empowerment of Africa in the global societyand economy is the other, and seemingly no lesschallenging. Despite repeated promises to thecontrary, the continent remains as marginalised in theworld as many of its people remain in their countries. Itremains heavily underrepresented in global institutionsand constrained by unfair rules it does not have thepower to change. The failure of the G20 to articulatea vision for supporting Africa’s development, or toprovide the region’s poorest nations with a place atthe table, is a disappointment. There are numerousqualified leaders in Africa.Both in Africa and internationally we must intensifythe focus on fairness, democracy, the rule of law andrespect for human rights. For there can be no long-term security without development, and no long-termdevelopment without security. And both have to berooted in the rule of law and respect for human rights.Events of the last year have underlined this message,which is understood by citizens in Africa and aroundthe world.Times are uncertain. But what is increasingly evidentis that Africa is on its way to becoming a preferredinvestment destination, a potential pole of globalgrowth, and a place of immense innovation andcreativity. If we respond with courage and in the rightway, building on the continent’s many successes,African societies will become more prosperous, fairand equal. This is a prize which we all, wherever welive, will share.Kofi A. Annan
8AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012Commentary on Africa has suffered from extrememood swings, with the pendulum moving fromepisodes of pessimism to bouts of euphoria. Twelveyears ago, The Economist wrote off Africa, describingit as “the hopeless continent”1. That assessment wasnot atypical. After a decade of slow economicgrowth and even slower human development in the1990s, few observers saw a bright future. How timeschange. Last year, The Economist ran with a verydifferent cover headline: “Africa rising: the hopefulcontinent”2. According to the title of one widelycited report, Africa has now become a continent ofeconomic “lions on the move,”3blazing a pathwayto prosperity. The commentariat spotlight, to quotea few more reports, is now fixed on Africa’s “risingmiddle class,”4the “dynamic African consumermarket”5and “growth opportunities for investors”6.The extreme pessimism surrounding Africa a decadeago was unwarranted. So, too, is the current wave ofblinkered optimism. Real gains have been made, butgovernments and their development partners needto reflect on the weaknesses, as well as the strengths,of the recent record – and assess both the risks andthe opportunities that lie ahead.A mixed balance sheetAfrica’s economies are consistently growing fasterthan those of almost any other region – and attwice the rate of the 1990s7. Improved economicmanagement has contributed to the growth surge.Exports are booming and export markets havebecome more diversified. Foreign direct investmenthas increased by a factor of six over the pastdecade. Private entrepreneurs have emerged as adynamic force for change, driving innovation andtransforming outdated business models. There isan emergent middle class, although its size is oftenexaggerated. For the first time in over a generation,the number of people living in poverty has fallen.Fewer children are dying before their fifth birthdayand more are getting into school. Young and not-so-young Africans are embracing new technologiesthat provide information, expand opportunities andconnect people to one another and to the outsideworld. There have been setbacks and episodes ofpolitical violence, but democracy is growing deeperroots. Governance standards are improving.Yet there is another side to the balance sheet.Countries across Africa are becoming richer butwhole sections of society are being left behind. Aftera decade of buoyant growth, almost half of Africansstill live on less than $1.25 a day8. Wealth disparitiesare increasingly visible. The current pattern of trickle-down growth is leaving too many people in poverty,too many children hungry and too many youngpeople without jobs. Governments are failing toconvert the rising tide of wealth into opportunitiesfor their most marginalised citizens. Unequal accessto health, education, water and sanitation isreinforcing wider inequalities. Smallholder agriculturehas not been part of the growth surge, leaving ruralpopulations trapped in poverty and vulnerability.The deep, persistent and enduring inequalitiesin evidence across Africa have consequences.They weaken the bonds of trust and solidarity thathold societies together. Over the long run, theywill undermine economic growth, productivityand the development of markets. They weakenconfidence in governments and institutions. Andthey leave many Africans feeling that their societiesare fundamentally unjust and their governmentsunresponsive. Economic growth alone is not enough.In this year’s report, we look at three of the most criticalingredients for transforming a promising economicupturn into a sustained recovery and lasting humandevelopment – jobs, justice and equity. We highlightjobs because livelihoods play such a fundamentalrole in people’s life-chances – and because Africaurgently needs to create jobs for a growing youthpopulation. We highlight justice and equity becausethey are missing from the lives of too many Africans,making the present growth socially unsustainable.Introduction
9Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangeA growing demand for equityand justiceWe live in a world of rapid and unpredictabletransformations. Changes in demography andhuman geography are re-making societies, notleast in Africa. Climate change is interacting withother pressures to reconfigure agricultural markets.Economic power is gravitating from West to East andNorth to South. The pace of technological innovationis accelerating and the face of social protest ischanging.The Arab revolutions of 2011 caught the world bysurprise, as social movements challenged andtoppled autocratic rulers across North Africa, theMiddle East and the Arabian Peninsula. In Europeand the United States, the financial crisis hasspawned new forms of social protest. In India, a masssocial movement is demanding action to combatcorruption. Villagers in a remote area of southernChina successfully mobilised against autocraticofficials responsible for overseeing land grabs. Ashared sense of frustration and discontent withunresponsive governments, inequality and injusticelinks these movements.Africa is not immune to the economic and politicalcurrents that are reconfiguring globalisation. Itsleaders need to find a place in the global economicgovernance architecture of a multipolar world.Africa’s own demography and human geographyare changing. Failure to create jobs and opportunityfor a growing and increasingly urbanised andeducated youth population would have catastrophicconsequences, socially, economically and politically.Having played a minimal role in creating dangerousclimate change, Africa’s farmers face some of thegravest risks. And the Arab Spring has not goneunnoticed by Africa’s youth. The circumstances maybe different, but young people in Africa also careabout jobs, justice and equality – and governmentsignore them at their peril.
10ECONomicsuccesssocialsuccesspoliticalsuccessafricaN countries are toppingthe list of fastest growingeconomies Annual average GDP growth, %Source: The Economist, 2011 (IMF data).fdi to africa is alsoincreasing605040302010-10-202002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100Other FDI Portfolio* Total$billions*Portfolioinvestmentisthecategoryofinternationalinvestmentthatcoversinvestmentinequityanddebtsecurities,excludinganysuchinstrumentsthatareclassiedasdirectinvestmentorreserveassets.Source: IMF, 2011.1970s654321980s 1990s 2000s 2011-15Asian countries African countriesafrica’s gdp growth is steadilyon the rise*Source: The Economist, 2011 (IMF data).Poverty ratingSierra LeoneSenegalGabonKenya MaliEgyptGhanaGDP per capita (PPP)poverty is decliningdemocracy is spreadingthe number of elections is upMORE CHILDREN ARE GOING TOSCHOOLoverall governance isimprovinghiv incidence rates havedroppedthe political empowerment ofwomen is growingPovertyrating(shareofpopulationbelow$1aday)GDPpercapita(dollars)1980 1987 1994 2001 2008300050%00%180030%240040%60010%120020%2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010706050403048334953576254514854535766612010 2011051015202530Numberofpresidentialelections159Source: APPto 2009FROM 2001Source: UNAIDS 2010hiv incidence ratedroppedmore than25%in 22countries ofsub-saharanafrica2female presidentsRwandaleading globallyin femaleparlamentarianparticipationA new generation of youngafrican women withpoweris rising2africannobel peace prizewinners82million children enrolled inprimary education in 1999124million children enrolled inprimary education in 20072001-2010 2011-2015Angola 11.1 China 9.5China 10.5 India 8.2Myanmar 10.3 Ethiopia 8.1Niger 8.9 Mozambique 7.7Ethiopia 8.4 Tanzania 7.2Kazakhstan 8.2 Vietnam 7.2Chad 7.9 Congo 7.0Mozambique 7.9 Ghana 7.0Cambodia 7.7 Zambia 6.9Rwanda 7.6 Nigeria 6.8Source: Pinkovskiy, MIT, Sala-i-Martin, Columbia University and NBER,2010.Data Source: IFES Election Guide and EISA websites.Source: Mo Ibrahim Index, 2010.Source: UNESCO, 2010.* Excluding countries with less than 10m population, Iraq and AfghanistanAFRICA: SUCCESSES AND SETBACKSFigure 1:
11ECONomicsetbackssocialsetbackspoliticalsetbacksResource-Rich countries relytoo much on volatile revenueflowsSource: African Economic Outlook 2012*“Labourproductivity”referstoGDPin2005PPPUS$perpersonemployed.Oreandmetalexportersreferstocountriesinwhichoreandmetalexportsaccountedforatleast50percentofallmerchandiseexportsin2005.Oilexportersreferstocountriesinwhichfuelexportsaccountedforatleast50percentofallmerchandiseexports.ExportdataarefromWorldBank,AfricanDevelopmentIndicatorsLabour productivity* growthin SSA by export structure1992-2009Other countries in Sub-Saharan AfricaOre and metal exportersResource taxesOil exportersOil priceMali Niger EthiopiaRichest 20%Poorest 20%Zambia Mozambiqueillicit financial flows aretaking a toll on economicdevelopmentSURVIVAL rate BY GRADE OFPRIMARY EDUCATION 2008national averages concealstriking inequalitiesmaternal mortality remainsunacceptably highSource: UNESCO, 2011. Source: UNESCO, 2010. Source: WHO, World Bank, Unicef and UNFPA (2010) and The Lancet (2011).Lifetime risk of maternal death **The MMR and lifetime risk have been rounded according to the followingscheme: <100, no rounding; 100–999, rounded to nearest 10; and >1000,rounded to nearest 100.The numbers of maternal deaths have been roundedas follows: <100, no rounding; 100–999 rounded to nearest 10; 1000–9999,rounded to nearest 100; and >10 000, rounded to nearest 1000.Source: Global Financial Integrity, 2009.Illicit flows create a shadow financial systemthat“drains hard currency reserves, heightensinflation, reduces tax collection, cancelsinvestment, and undermines free trade.”8%4%-4%-8%1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2007 2008 20100%19961209060302000 2004 2008 201202048160%GDPOilprice($perbarrel)1100806040202 3 4 5 6Source: ILO, 2011.SurvivalrateGrade0still a long way to go tosecure gender equality atlegal and political levelsgood governance ishampered by corruptionelectoral Processes aredelicateSource: APP with data from IMF, Africa Economic Outlook, Social Indicators, World Bank, Transparency InternationalSource: USIP, 2010. Source: Transparency International, 2011. Source: UNWOMEN Websiteto 2008FROM 19701.8trillion USDare estimated tohave been lostto illicit flowsBetween 19 and 25 per cent of elections inAfrica are affected by violence.All Sub-Saharan countries with theexception of Botswana, Cape Verde,Mauritius and Rwanda (which score over 5on the CPI index) rank in the lower half of the2011 Corruption Perception Index)On average, Nigerian children receive close to 7years of education. The richest 20% school foralmost 10 years (more like Cuba or Bolivia) whilethe poorest 20% don’t even complete 4 years ofeducation which is closer to the national averageof Chad.Urban/rural and boy/girl differences are alsostrikingPost conflict countries fare better in legaland constitutional protection for women’spolitical participation.57.5102.50CPIindex19-25%average number ofyears of education BOY GIRLUrban 6.5 11 6 9.5rural 4 10 2.5 9South Africa 1 in 100Women’s representation inparliament14% 27%Constitution includesanti-discrimination clause on gender61% 93%Constitution mentionsviolence against women10% 21%Gender-responsivebudgeting initiative39% 50%Non-Post-ConflictPost-ConflictLiberia1 in 141 in 20AFRICAASIA1 in 361 in 230EUROPE 1 in 4 200Chad and Somalia
PART IAFRICA RISING –BUT WHILE SOMEAFRICANS ARE RISING,OTHERS ARE NOTAfrica in 2012 has an unprecedented opportunity to set acourse for sustained economic growth, shared prosperityand a breakthrough in poverty reduction. But this journeywill not happen without determined action and crucialchanges to make growth much more equitable.
14AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012In the world economic growth league, Africa hasmoved from the lower echelons to the premierdivision. After a downturn in 2008, recovery fromthe global economic crisis has continued (Figure 2).Some of the fastest-growing economies in the worldare in Africa (Figure 3). Seven in every 10 peoplein the region live in countries that have averagedeconomic growth rates in excess of 4 per centfor the past decade. From 2005 to 2009, Ethiopiarecorded higher growth than China, and Ugandaoutperformed India9. In 1996, there were 13 countrieswith inflation rates above 20 per cent; since the mid-2000s, there have been no more than two. Much ofthis growth and rebound is due to improved policies.Box 1 outlines regional patterns of economic growth.1. Economic growthmoving to the premierleagueFigure 2: Growth rates of African GDP, 2000–2013Sub-Saharan AfricaPercentgrowthinGDP2000 2004 20082002 2006 20102001 2005 20092003 2007 2011 201320120.01.06.02.07.03.04.05.08.0Pre-crisis average Sub- Saharan Africa excluding South AfricaSource:WorldBankAfrica’sPulse,2011Figure 3: Fastest-growing African economies in 2011GrowthrateSource:WorldBankAfrica’sPulse,20110212414681016GhanaIndiaBotswanaChinaMozambiqueDem.Rep.ofCongoTanzaniaCongoNigeriaZimbabweBrazilEthiopiaRwandaAngolaRussia
15Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangeBOX 1: Across Sub-Saharan Africa: strong but uneven growthThe economic picture within Sub-Saharan Africa is highly varied. Despite the effects of drought and faminein 2011, East Africa grew at a rate of 5.8 per cent in 2011, as sustained public investment in infrastructure(Ethiopia and Tanzania), rising mining output (Tanzania), increased foreign investment in energy (Uganda)and higher agricultural output (Ethiopia) supported recovery.In West Africa, economic growth slowed from 6.9 per cent in 2010 to 5.6 per cent in 2011. This was largelybecause Côte d’Ivoire’s economy contracted by 0.4 per cent after post-election violence and a collapseof exports and the financial sector, but a solid process of recovery started as soon as the political situationnormalised. Lower oil production by Nigeria also contributed to the slowdown. Faster growth in Ghana (12.2per cent), boosted by the start of commercial oil exploitation and strong growth in agriculture, mining andservices, counterbalanced the regional picture.Central Africa’s economic activity remained robust although average GDP growth declined from 5.2 percent in 2010 to 4.2 per cent in 2011. Growth was underpinned by public investment in infrastructure, thestrong performance of service sectors, and increased timber exports. The overall performance covered alacklustre showing by Chad, where oil production declined because of labour disputes and remittances fellwhen many Chadians in Libya lost their jobs at the outbreak of conflict.In Southern Africa, output expanded by 3.8 per cent in 2011, up from 3.5 per cent in 2010, with considerablevariations. South Africa recovered slowly, with growth of 3.1 per cent in 2011, up only slightly from 2.8 percent in 2010. Performance was lifted by a recovery in consumer spending, fuelled in turn by cheap creditand low inflation. Many other countries, however, achieved solid growth. Botswana, Mozambique andZambia posted growth rates above 6 per cent, reflecting rising mining output and strong global demandfor minerals (as well as a bumper harvest in Zambia). Increased oil output and investment in Angola and animproved political and economic climate in Zimbabwe pushed growth in both countries over 4.0 per cent.Africa’s economic prospects remain promising.Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected torecover to 5.3 per cent in 2012 and 5.6 per cent in201310, underpinned by strong export demand, risingcommodity prices and firm domestic demand, andbuttressed by government infrastructure spending.It is not just the headline numbers that are impressive.GDP per capita is also rising. Growth is more diversified,more resilient – and in some countries less dependenton exports of primary commodities. Revenues fromnatural resources account for no more than one-third of Africa’s growth over the past decade. Whilethe price boom in global commodities has certainlycontributed to Africa’s recovery and the regionalterms of trade improved sharply in 2010 and 2011,domestic consumer markets are also growing andAfrica’s private sector is an increasingly powerfulengine for growth.Export diversification has also played a vital role insupporting strong growth. Before 2000, Africa’s fortuneswere strongly tied to those of Europe and the UnitedStates. These are still critically important markets. Butdeepening ties with Brazil, Russia, India and China– the BRICs – as well as Gulf countries and Turkey,helped first to insulate Africa partially from the globaleconomic downturn, and then to drive recovery. Thebulk of the “BRIC effect” has operated through trade(see Part II, Section 3). But the economic linkages gobeyond trade. Chinese foreign direct investment intoAfrica has grown rapidly over the past decade.
16AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012Economic recovery has been accompaniedby accelerated progress towards most of theMillennium Development Goal (MDG) targets. Africahas started to turn the corner on reducing poverty.Between 1999 and 2008, the last year for which data isavailable, the share of Africans living on less than $1.25a day fell from 58 to 48 per cent. More encouragingstill, the rate at which poverty is falling appears tohave gathered pace. The World Bank’s most recentestimates suggest that the number of poor peoplein the Sub-Sahara region fell by around nine millionbetween 2005 and 200811.Other social indicators have also improved.Compared with a decade ago, Africa’s children areless likely to die before their fifth birthday, women areless likely to die from complications of pregnancy orduring childbirth, and more children are getting intoschool. The average annual rate of reduction in under-five mortality has accelerated, doubling between1990–2000 and 2000–201012. Measured by the rate ofreduction, 6 of the 14 best-performing countries in theworld – including Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi and Niger –are in Africa. The number of out-of-school children hasfallen by 13 million.The overall record on poverty, however, does notmatch Africa’s economic growth. There are still 386million Africans struggling to survive on less than$1.25 a day and Africa accounts for a rising shareof world poverty. At the start of its growth surgein 1999, Africa accounted for 21 per cent of theworld’s poverty. By 2008, that share had reached29 per cent. And while much has been made of thegrowth of Africa’s middle class, this group remainssmall (Box 2).Some of the countries with the strongest economicgrowth have a mixed record on reducing poverty.In Mozambique, for example, household surveyevidence showed no decrease in national povertyfrom 2002 to 2008 and in the Central regions there wasa marked increase in poverty13. Tanzania has beenone of the world’s fastest-growing economies. Yetfrom 2000 to 2007 income poverty fell only from 35 to33 per cent, according to household budget surveys.Taking into account population growth, this amountsto an additional one million Tanzanians living belowthe poverty line. Economic growth reduced povertyin Africa, but less than might have been anticipated,with Africa’s poor receiving too small a slice of theexpanding wealth cake.Africa’s wealth disparities are among the biggest inthe world. One widely used measure of inequality, theGini index, captures the concentration of householdincome or expenditure (the higher the index, thegreater the inequality). In China, where politicalleaders have identified rising inequality as a threat tosocial stability and future growth, the Gini index is 42.There are 24 countries in Africa with higher inequalityscores than China. In Mozambique, Kenya andZambia, the Gini index is between 45 and 55, while inBotswana and South Africa it is over 6014.The poorest 20 per cent in Sub-Saharan Africa typicallyreceive 6 per cent or less of national income; and thepoorest 40 per cent in most cases receive less than15 per cent (Figure 6). In many countries, the patternof economic growth is reinforcing these inequalities.One recent poverty assessment for Lesotho, which hasone of the world’s highest levels of income inequality,concluded: “The main reason for the high poverty rateis not slow economic growth but high inequality.”15That verdict has a far wider application in Africa.2. The record onpovertyconstrained by inequality
17Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangeBOX 2: Rising slowly – an African middle classAs even a brief visit to any major African city confirms, retail sectors and higher-income housing markets arebooming. According to the World Bank, economic growth “is creating an emerging African middle class ofhundreds of millions of consumers.”16The African Development Bank claims that one-third of Africans arealready middle class. Major consultancy firms like McKinsey and Accenture have also celebrated the rise ofmiddle-class consumer markets in Africa17.Such conclusions are premature. After a decade of high growth, almost half of all Africans still live belowthe $1.25 a day poverty line. Another 30 per cent – 246 million people – live in the poverty grey area, onbetween $1.25 and $2.50 a day. Only 4 per cent of Africans have an income in excess of $10 a day (Figure4). In other words, the vast majority of what commentators describe as Africa’s middle class has eithermoved just across the $1.25 threshold, or is living well within the gravitational pull of the poverty zone.Analytical work by the Brookings Institution provides another view. Using a range of $10–$100 per day formembership of a “global middle class,”18Brookings finds that Africa accounts for just 2 per cent of theworld’s middle-class population, and 1 per cent of purchasing power.Number of people in the middle class (million)Sub-Saharan AfricaCentral and South AmericaMiddle East and North AfricaNorth AmericaAsia PacificEurope201220020 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500Figure 4: Africa’s small middle-class** Middle class defined as$10-$100 Purchasing PowerParity (PPP)Source:BrookingsInstitution.
18AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012BOX 3: The eurozone crisis is harming many African economiesThe sovereign debt crisis in the euro area resulted in a global economic slowdown in 2011 that is likely toharm African economies in several ways should it continue in 2012 and beyond. However, the eurozonecrisis also creates some opportunities. The 14 countries that use the CFA franc, which is pegged to theeuro, have experienced significant depreciation of their currency, making their exports more competitivein global markets.Europe has traditionally been Africa’s most important export destination and source of capital, so tradeis expected to be the most significant channel of harm from the debt crisis. Africa may also receive lessforeign direct investment (FDI) from the EU and other parts of the world in the short term, but it has recentlydiversified its sources of FDI, which may mitigate the worst effects of the eurozone crisis. For example, China’sFDI to Africa reached about 7.5 per cent of the continent’s total receipts in 2008.The eurozone crisis is expected to have significant effects on official development assistance (ODA) toAfrica because the EU is the largest aid provider to the continent. A few countries, including France andItaly, have already reduced bilateral assistance to Africa because of the global economic crisis. Theexpected slowdown of ODA to Africa could put pressure on social sectors, especially health, education andpopulation programmes as well as water and sanitation, undermining poverty reduction efforts, especiallyin low-income and fragile states.The lesson to be drawn is not that growth is unimportant.The challenge is to harness economic growth to amore equitable distribution of opportunity and income.Meeting this challenge requires public policy actionon two fronts. First, governments need to mobiliserevenues from growth and invest those revenues inthe basic services and economic infrastructure thatoffer poor people greater opportunities (see Part V).Second, governments need to foster an environmentthat enables the creation of jobs and more resilientlivelihoods, so that poor people can contribute toeconomic growth, “produce” their way out of povertyand secure a greater share of the benefits from growth.The two goals of growth and equity are not mutuallyexclusive. The central objective should be economicgrowth that increases equity and creates jobs.Indeed, a wealth of evidence is now showing thatgreater equity can boost growth and strengthenthe rate at which growth converts into less poverty.Conversely, high levels of inequality act as a brakeon growth, limiting the potential for development ofmarkets and investment.The recent experience of Rwanda is instructive. The2011 Household Living Conditions Survey documentsa triple win of high growth in income, falling inequalityand a steep decline in poverty19. From 2005 to2010, average incomes rose from US$333 to US$540,inequality fell (the Gini coefficient dropped from0.52 to 0.49) and poverty declined from 57 to 45per cent, resulting in one million people lifted outof poverty20. African governments might also lookto wider international experience. The country withmost-reduced poverty since 2000 is Brazil – and here,too, success has been built on strong growth andimproved income distribution. Inequality constrainspoverty reduction, and, as highlighted later in thissection, social disparities are also acting as a brakeon progress toward other MDGs.
1919INEQUALITY: CHANCES TO SURVIVEBIRTH AND EARLY CHILDHOODInequality begins before birth. Access to basic healthcare and thechances to survive past the age of five vary from country to country. Butinequality is even more striking within countries themselves - between therichest and the poorest and between the urban and the rural.UUrbanRRuralHRichest 20%LPoorest 20%Source:APPwithdatafromtheDemographicandHealthSurveys(DHS).Kenya(DHS2008-09);Mali(DHS2006);Nigeria(DHS2008);andZambia(DHS2007).Note: Please note that the data presented here is strictly as provided in the DHS Survey and corresponds to different surveys taken in different years.INEQUALITY: CHANCESTO SURVIVE BIRTH AND EARLY CHILDHOODCHILDHOODTIMELINEOFOPPORTUNITYGestation0 yrs.2 yrs.3 yrs.0-1 year4 yrs.0-5 years1 yr.5 yrs.KenyaSource: APP with data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Kenya (DHS2008-09); Mali (DHS 2006); Nigeria (DHS 2008); and Zambia(DHS 2007).Note: Please note that the data presented here is strictly as provided in the DHS Survey and corresponds to different surveys taken in different years.Inequality begins before birth. Access to basic healthcare and the chances to survive past the age and of five vary from country to country.But inequality is even more striking within countries themselves - between the richest and the poorest and between the urban and the rural.Infant mortality(per 1000 live births) Chance of not receivingcomplete vaccinationsBeforebirthBirthNotSurvivingpast1Stayinghealthy CHILDHOODTIMELINEOFOPPORTUNITYGestation0 yrs.2 yrs.3 yrs.0-1 year4 yrs.0-5 years1 yr.5 yrs.NigeriaBeforebirthBirthNotSurvivingpast1Stayinghealthy12%3%47%71%2%3%9%14%75%40%92%21%64% 25%80% 19%635957669967955884%63%95% 47%37%30%39% 30%Chance of not being deliveredin a health facilityCHILDHOODTIMELINEOFOPPORTUNITYGestation0 yrs.2 yrs.3 yrs.0-1 year4 yrs.0-5 years1 yr.5 yrs.MaliBeforebirthBirthNotSurvivingpast1Stayinghealthy13%7%34%37%65%20%68%15%831228012447%54%51% 44%ZambiaUUrbanRRuralHRichest 20%LPoorest 20%LegendCHILDHOODTIMELINEOFOPPORTUNITYGestation0 yrs.2 yrs.3 yrs.0-1 year4 yrs.0-5 years1 yr.5 yrs.BeforebirthBirthNotSurvivingpast1Stayinghealthy1%2%3%4%68%20%72% 8%6980827434%29%29%22%Infant mortality(per 1000 live births)Chance of not receivingcomplete vaccinationsPer cent of births that received no antenatalcare in the 3 years prior to surveyPer cent of births that received no antenatalcare in the 3 years prior to surveyPer cent of births that received no antenatalcare in the 3 years prior to surveyInfant mortality(per 1000 live births)Chance of not receivingcomplete vaccinationsChance of not being deliveredin a health facilityInfant mortality(per 1000 live births) Chance of not receivingcomplete vaccinationsChance of not being deliveredin a health facilityPer cent of births that received no antenatalcare in the 3 years prior to surveyChance of not being deliveredin a health facilityINEQUALITY: CHANCESTO SURVIVE BIRTH AND EARLY CHILDHOODCHILDHOODTIMELINEOFOPPORTUNITYGestation0 yrs.2 yrs.3 yrs.0-1 year4 yrs.0-5 years1 yr.5 yrs.KenyaSource: APP with data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Kenya (DHS2008-09); Mali (DHS 2006); Nigeria (DHS 2008); and Zambia(DHS 2007).Note: Please note that the data presented here is strictly as provided in the DHS Survey and corresponds to different surveys taken in different years.Inequality begins before birth. Access to basic healthcare and the chances to survive past the age and of five vary from country to country.But inequality is even more striking within countries themselves - between the richest and the poorest and between the urban and the rural.Infant mortality(per 1000 live births) Chance of not receivingcomplete vaccinationsBeforebirthBirthNotSurvivingpast1StayinghealthyCHILDHOODTIMELINEOFOPPORTUNITYGestation0 yrs.2 yrs.3 yrs.0-1 year4 yrs.0-5 years1 yr.5 yrs.NigeriaBeforebirthBirthNotSurvivingpast1Stayinghealthy12%3%47%71%2%3%9%14%75%40%92%21%64% 25%80% 19%635957669967955884%63%95% 47%37%30%39% 30%Chance of not being deliveredin a health facilityCHILDHOODTIMELINEOFOPPORTUNITYGestation0 yrs.2 yrs.3 yrs.0-1 year4 yrs.0-5 years1 yr.5 yrs.MaliBeforebirthBirthNotSurvivingpast1Stayinghealthy13%7%34%37%65%20%68%15%831228012447%54%51% 44%ZambiaUUrbanRRuralHRichest 20%LPoorest 20%LegendCHILDHOODTIMELINEOFOPPORTUNITYGestation0 yrs.2 yrs.3 yrs.0-1 year4 yrs.0-5 years1 yr.5 yrs.BeforebirthBirthNotSurvivingpast1Stayinghealthy1%2%3%4%68%20%72% 8%6980827434%29%29%22%Infant mortality(per 1000 live births)Chance of not receivingcomplete vaccinationsPer cent of births that received no antenatalcare in the 3 years prior to surveyPer cent of births that received no antenatalcare in the 3 years prior to surveyPer cent of births that received no antenatalcare in the 3 years prior to surveyInfant mortality(per 1000 live births)Chance of not receivingcomplete vaccinationsChance of not being deliveredin a health facilityInfant mortality(per 1000 live births) Chance of not receivingcomplete vaccinationsChance of not being deliveredin a health facilityPer cent of births that received no antenatalcare in the 3 years prior to surveyChance of not being deliveredin a health facilityFigure 5:
20AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012Employment is the engine of social development. Itis through their jobs that people generate income,plan for the future, and contribute to wealth creation,social cohesion and share in national prosperity21.Economic growth in Africa is creating employment, butnot on the required scale. As demographic pressuresmount, it is imperative that governments across Africadevelop more employment-intensive patterns ofgrowth at higher levels of skills and productivity.Every year, 8 million to 10 million young Africans makethe difficult transition from school to work. While youthunemployment is a concern, African participationrates in the labour market are among the highestin the world. This is for the simple reason that, in theabsence of functioning social welfare systems,young people have no alternative but to work.Not that employment is an automatic escape frompoverty. Most Africans work in insecure, low-wageand often hazardous employment, with no prospectof developing their skills. In Nigeria, Mozambiqueand Burundi, for example, over 60 per cent of youngpeople in employment earn less than $1.25 a day.Employmentcreationintheformalsectorfallsfarbelowthe level required to absorb new market entrants.Moreover, most new entrants lack the skills they needto enter firms operating at higher levels of productivityand wages. As a result, the overwhelming majority ofyoung people are destined for employment on farms,rural enterprises or in the informal sector.Despite growth, labour marketsremain informalAfrica’s decade of growth has done little to alterunderlying labour market conditions. Agriculturestill accounts for almost two-thirds of livelihoods.Across most of the region, livelihoods are dominatedby smallholder farming, off-farm employment in ruralareas, and informal-sector enterprises, includinghousehold businesses and micro-enterprise. Smallcompanies and the informal sectors dominatemanufacturing. In Ethiopia, for example, only 5 percent of people engaged in manufacturing activitieswork in firms with 10 or more employees.To make progress, governments need to providethe conditions that enable formal-sector wageemployment, predominately in the private sector,to grow rapidly. Even in fast-growing economies likeGhana, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, formal-sector employment is starting from such a low basethat it has failed to keep pace with the growth of newentrants to the workforce. In Uganda, waged jobsgrew at 13 per cent a year between 2003 and 2006,but this absorbed less than one in five of new labour-market entrants.As estimates by the World Bank underline, even onthe most optimistic assumptions about the growthrate of wage jobs, the majority of Africans will remainin informal jobs until well after 2020. Given Africa’sunderlying demography, the structural transformationto a labour market dominated by private wageemployment will take several decades. While moremust be done to facilitate the growth of private wageemployment, this should not divert attention fromthree key sectors for labour-intensive growth:• smallholder agriculture and the scope for raisingproductivity and employment through a GreenRevolution (we highlight the critical role ofagriculture in Part II);• rural household enterprise, which represents thefastest-growing livelihood sector in most low-income countries;• the urban informal sector, which will need toabsorb a growing share of Africa’s young peopleas human geography changes.Strategies for promoting formalprivate-sector employmentSmall firms are at the heart of private-sector jobcreation. In Ghana, for example, the overwhelmingmajority of new jobs have been created in newfirms rather than through the expansion of existingenterprises22. These new jobs have reduced povertybecause they successfully employed the skills of poorpeople23. The jobs created in small firms have beenmore pro-poor than many programmes in the pastthat have relied on a top-down development of acapital-intensive formal sector.3. Looking for workthe employment challengeCreating jobs:Sectors for labour-intensive growth1 private wage employment2 smallholder agriculture3 rural household enterprises4 informal sector
21Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangePolicy makers need to create an environment wheresmall and medium-scale businesses can flourish toallow them be competitive in domestic and globalmarkets. This requires attention to everything fromimproving physical infrastructure (estimates by theAfrican Development Bank suggest that a shortageof infrastructure reduces business productivityin Sub-Saharan Africa by approximately 40 percent24), access to finance (research shows thatthe availability of local banks leads to fastergrowth of small and medium-size firms and moreinvestment, for example in Morocco25), appropriatetax policies, transparent and fair procedures fordispute settlement, and removal of unnecessary(and often illegal) barriers to the movement ofgoods within and across jurisdictions. We noteelsewhere the importance of both further regionaleconomic integration in Africa and of policies inAfrica’s main trading partners that can facilitateAfrica’s development as an exporter of processedand manufactured goods, and the need to createan environment where foreign firms want to setup operations to exploit the abundance of under-employed labour in Africa.Off-farm enterprise –a growth pole for jobsIn South Asia and East Asia, off-farm householdenterprises have played a central part in creatingopportunities for investment and employment.Yet African governments – and aid donors – havetended to neglect the sector. Evidence from Ugandaillustrates why the neglect is misplaced. Over thepast two decades, Uganda’s record on economicgrowth and poverty reduction has been impressive– including achieving the MDG target of halvingextreme poverty. While farming remains a source ofincome for 77 per cent of households in Uganda, by2009/10 about 40 per cent of rural households wereoperating a non-farm enterprise, compared with 24per cent in 1992/93. Rural poverty in Uganda fell from60 per cent in 1992 to 27 per cent in 2009/10, withthe poverty rate among households with an off-farmenterprise 6 percentage points lower than amongthose without26.Uganda’s growth has been driven from below, assmallholders facing a shortage of land have soughtopportunities for investment in newly liberalisedmarkets. However, non-farm enterprises barely figurein Uganda’s economic development strategy, exceptas a source of revenue from licence fees. The growthof very small, informal enterprises operating beyondthe farm has played a pivotal role in employmentcreation and poverty reduction. The same is trueof other countries. Depending on the underlyingpattern of economic growth, 30–60 per cent of ruralhouseholds in Africa operate some form of off-farmenterprise.Too often, household enterprises are seen as irrelevanton the contentious grounds that they make a weakcontribution to government revenues, operate atlow levels of technology and have low levels ofproductivity. While productivity levels are low inmany cases, that is a case for raising productivity –not for neglect. There is considerable potential forbuilding linkages between household enterprises andhigher value-chains in production and distribution,as illustrated by the practices of mobile phonecompanies operating through petty traders.The urban informal sectorHousehold businesses in the urban informal sectorface many of the same problems as those inrural areas. With limited capital and restricted accessto new technologies, these enterprises face majorbarriers to growth. Evidence from countries suchas Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania shows that smallcompanies have a far higher rate of failure thanlarge ones. Yet, they are a source of employment.In Ghana, the overwhelming majority of new jobshas been created in the small businesses that haveemerged with economic growth.Viewed through the prism of employment markets,jobs created in the informal sector do more toreduce poverty than those in the formal wage sectorbecause they create demand for relatively unskilledlabour. Moreover, it is sometimes forgotten that mostyoung people entering employment markets receivetraining not through formal government institutions,or through large companies, but through on-the-job apprenticeships and training with experiencedcraftspeople.Across the region, governments and their partnersdiscuss how best to create formal-sector jobs athigher levels of wages and productivity, overlookingwhere most Africans are starting from in terms ofeducation levels and employment opportunities.Looking to the future, Africa needs to develop througheducation the skills and capabilities that hold the keyto increased productivity. But looking to the future isnot a substitute for policies that can help to generateemployment today.
22AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012As the 2015 deadline for achieving the MillenniumDevelopment Goals (MDGs) approaches,governments, non-government organisations, UNagencies and others are turning their attention to thepost-2015 agenda. Dialogue on this issue is criticalso that the international community can build onthe momentum of the past decade. But it shouldnot deflect political attention from the importanceof honouring the MDG pledge to create a moreequitable world. Governments need to focus on theunfinished business in hand. Failure to accelerateprogress towards the MDGs would diminish thecredibility of any post-2015 commitments. That is whyAfrica’s governments and their development partnersshould initiate as a matter of urgency a “big push”towards the 2015 goals, starting this year. Not everycountry in Africa can reach every target – but everycountry can go further and faster.This year’s report does not provide a detailed goal-by-goal assessment of where Africa stands. Instead, welook at some of the major challenges to be addressed.There have been some remarkable achievements.Many countries have registered advances thatwould have been unimaginable a decade ago.Such achievements demonstrate what is possiblewhen good policies combine with effective politicalleadership and consistent international partnerships.At the same time, it is vital to reflect on how muchfurther there is to go – because the ultimate test ofperformance is how close we get to the 2015 targets.Poverty and inequalityProgress towards the twin goal of halving extremepoverty and hunger reflects the mixed MDGrecord of the past decade. It also draws attention toa concern that has received insufficient attention: thevery large data gaps that weaken MDG reporting.Household survey evidence suggests that somecountries – such as Kenya and Tanzania – havereduced poverty only modestly, despite the strongeconomic growth reported in national incomeaccounts. Other countries – including Ethiopia andSenegal – have a stronger track record. The evidencefrom Rwanda illustrates that a combination of robusteconomic growth and reduced inequalities canact as a powerful accelerant for poverty reduction.However, the trends in Nigeria, the country withAfrica’s largest population, are unclear: two-thirdsof Nigerians are estimated to live below the povertyline. Sometimes the weak trickle-down effect helpsto explain extreme income disparities. In Nigeria, thepoorest 20 per cent receive only 4 per cent of nationalincome, while the wealthiest 20 per cent receive 53per cent.4. Unjust disparitiesa brake on progresstowards the MDGs
23Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangeThe evidence base for tracking poverty and inequalityremains partial and incomplete. Only 18 of the 42countries covered in World Bank estimates have surveydata available from 2007 or beyond – and 30 per centof the region’s population is not covered in the 2008estimate. Researchers at the Brookings Institution havepointed out that while 43 of 49 Sub-Saharan Africancountries have at least one household survey, halfwere carried out more than six years ago27. Moreover,a lack of comparability across surveys makes anyattempt at tracking trends or making comparisonsacross countries a hazardous exercise. Even withthe high level of technical expertise that the LivingStandard Measurement Survey team of the WorldBank brings to poverty analysis, the quality andcoverage of the data create large margins of error.Another concern is that the bundle of goods coveredin consumption surveys may not reflect the changingconsumption patterns of poor households. This mayhelp to explain the very large discrepancy in povertyestimates based on household surveys and nationalincome accounts.Uncertainties of such magnitude have consequencesfor policymakers. Effective anti-poverty policieshave to be built on a clear picture of the numbersaffected, the depth of poverty, and shifts in thenational poverty profile. That is why in Latin America,partnerships between governments, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the UN’s EconomicCommission for Latin America and the Caribbean(ECLAC) sought with some success to improve boththe quality and timeliness of household surveys. Similarpartnerships are urgently needed in Africa as well aselsewhere.Weak progress on hungerProgress on hunger has fallen disturbingly short ofthe 2015 target. From 1990–1992 to 2006–2008, theestimated prevalence of undernourishment in Africafell only from 31 to 27 per cent. Progress on reducingchildhood malnutrition has been painfully slow. Overa period of two decades to 2009, the proportion ofchildren registered as underweight fell from 27 to 22per cent. The best available evidence also points tominimal progress on stunting. An estimated 35 percent of Africa’s children are stunted (short for theirage). That figure is worrying for many reasons, not leastbecause malnutrition is associated with over one-thirdof child deaths. Moreover, stunting by the age of twoyears appears to be largely irreversible.Figure 6: Income inequalityIncome or consumption share by deciles (%)Côte d’IvoirePoorest 10%2.23%184.108.40.2068.921.820.311.710.515.429.844.231.75%32.75%37.99%36.73%38.23%43.22%30.14%51.69%29.61%36.1%43.14%2.03%1.96%1.94%1.75%2.13%2.54%1.17%2.82%2.35%1.45%Richest 10% Rich/Poor RatioGhanaKenyaMozambiqueNigeriaRwandaSenegalSouth AfricaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaDatasource:PovcalNet:theon-linetoolforpovertymeasurementdevelopedbytheDevelopmentResearchGroupoftheWorldBank,http://iresearch.worldbank.org
24AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012Despite the dismal picture on malnutrition, there aresome success stories. Both Ghana and Mozambiquewere able to reduce child malnutrition significantly,in part through targeted programmes and theintroduction of more nutritious crop strains. Vitamin-A-rich cassava and maize have been introducedinto Mozambique and Zambia, and Rwanda hasintroduced iron-rich beans28. The elements of effectiveintervention are well known. Vitamin supplementsand micronutrients can be delivered cheaply andefficiently through primary healthcare systems. Scalingup maternal and child health programmes, teachinggood feeding practices, identifying vulnerablehouseholds, and measuring and monitoring theproblem can deliver early and significant gains.The problem is that effective intervention requiressimultaneous action on many fronts. Brazil’s successfulZero Hunger model operates through 90 separateprogrammes run by 19 ministries. In contrast, nationalpolicy approaches in many African countries areoften fragmented, poorly coordinated and lacking inpolitical leadership.The ongoing hunger crisis in Africa is linked tothe inequalities discussed in this report. Perhapsunsurprisingly, children from poor households are farmore likely to be stunted than those from wealthyhouseholds. But there are also marked rural/urbandisparities. Rural children in Africa are 50 per cent morelikely to be stunted than their urban counterparts. Thisdraws attention to the two-way interaction betweenmalnutrition and the ongoing neglect of agriculture.Save the Children estimates that three-quarters ofAfrica’s malnourished children live on small farms. Itfollows that investment in these farms, raising theirproductivity, and creating the conditions for off-farm employment are critical requirements for moreequitable growth and for driving down levels of childmalnutrition.Education and health – progress anddisparities matterAfrica has registered strong progress towards theMDG goals on education, child survival, HIV/AIDS,malaria and tuberculosis and – to a lesser extent – onmaternal survival. Yet in each case, most countrieswill fail to reach most targets because they are beingheld back by deeply entrenched inequalities.Some very significant achievements have beenregistered. After the “lost decade”29of the 1990s, whenenrolment levels stagnated and out-of-school numbersincreased, Africa has dramatically increased access toprimary education (see Part IV). The number of under-five deaths fell from 4 million in 2000 to 3.7 million in 2010,with the annualised rate of decline in child mortalityaccelerating from 1 per cent in the decade to 2000 to2.5 per cent over the past decade. Recent estimatesfor maternal mortality point to significant reductionssince 2000, reversing the trend of the previous decade.In East and Southern Africa, the estimated rates ofdecline are 4 per cent and 9 per cent.Advances in combating major infectious diseaseshave been even more impressive. Ten years ago,Africa was unequivocally losing the battle againstHIV/AIDS. The region is far from winning that battle;23 million people are still living with HIV, with womendisproportionately affected. Yet the coverage rateof anti-retroviral therapy (ART), which was less thantwo per cent a decade ago, stood at 49 per cent atthe end of 2010. Approximately half of all pregnantwomen living with HIV receive treatment to preventmother-to child transmission. And 21 per cent ofchildren in need are able to get paediatric HIVtreatments30. On some estimates, progress in tacklingmalaria has been even more remarkable. In 2011, theWorld Health Organization (WHO) reported a declineof one-third in the number of malaria deaths since theend of the 1990s31.Over the last 10 years, there has been a massiveincrease in global investment for malaria, tuberculosisand HIV/AIDS. This has helped African countriesscale up interventions to prevent and treat the threediseases. For example, Senegal’s effective malariaprogramme distributed nearly 6 million insecticide-treated nets between 2005 and 2010. In 2009, 86per cent of patients presenting with suspectedmalaria were tested using rapid diagnostic tests.Expanding coverage of key malaria interventions hasled to a reduction in malaria illness and death andcontributed to a 30 per cent reduction in Senegal’sunder-5 mortality between 2005 and 2009.As with extreme poverty and hunger, data limitationsmean these progress reports have to be treated withcaution. Regional estimates of maternal mortalityfor Africa are based largely on extrapolations froma range of often-dated surveys. There are also largegaps in the data on child mortality.Whatever post-2015 targets are adopted,governments must urgently strengthen the nationalreporting systems through which progress is tracked.MDG monitoring has been one of the growthindustries of the past decades, with dozens of UNagencies, international financial institutions, regionaldevelopment banks, non-government organisationsand academic research institutions involved. Yet westill lack the basic tool-kit required to develop a timelyand accurate picture of the changes in the lives andcircumstances of the very people the MDGs werecreated to support.
25Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangeLeaving aside the data constraints, even the mostpositive interpretation of the MDG progress reportleaves no room for complacency. Here, we considerthat report from the vantage point not of progressmade but of distance from the 2015 targets.• Child survival: The regional child mortality rate inAfrica has fallen from 174 to 121 deaths for every1,000 live births since 1990 – far short of the MDGtarget of a two-thirds reduction. Whereas Africaaccounted for one in every three under-five deathsworldwide 20 years ago, that figure has now risento one in two. At current rates of progress, only onecountry (Madagascar) is on track to achieve theMDG goal by 2015, another eight are on a trajectorythat will take them to the goal by 2025, while 23countries will not get there until after 2040. Of the31 countries in the world with under-five mortalityrates above 100 deaths per 1,000 live births, allbut one are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Acceleratedprogress is possible, but this will require concertedaction to tackle malnutrition and the three majorkiller diseases – malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia– that account for half of child deaths.• Maternal health: Maternal death rates appear tobe falling in Sub-Saharan Africa – but far more slowlythan in other developing regions. The UN estimatesthat the maternal mortality rate decreased by 26per cent in Africa from 1990 to 2008, compared witha 53 per cent reduction in South Asia32. And WHOestimates that the number of maternal deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa increased from 200,000 per annum in1990 to 204,000 in 2008. The majority of these deathsare caused by obstetric haemorrhage, eclampsia,sepsis, complications from unsafe abortions, andindirect factors such as malaria and HIV/AIDS. Notone country in Africa is on target to achieve theMDG target on maternal mortality.• Killer diseases: Every element of the progress reportfor HIV/AIDS and malaria has a negative side. Halfof Africans living with HIV do not have access toART; and half of pregnant women with HIV do nothave access to drugs for preventing mother-to-child transmission. Sub-Saharan Africa is home to1.3 million pregnant women in need of treatment.Similarly, the vast majority of the one million peoplekilled each year by malaria live in Africa – andpregnant women and children account for mostof the victims. The disease costs the region anestimated US$30 billion annually33. HIV preventionmust be a top priority (without which treatment costswill become even more unaffordable). Responseswill need to tackle cultural and behaviouraldrivers such as gender inequality and women’sdisempowerment. Gains in malaria control remainfragile and will need continual investments toprevent a resurgence of the disease.• Education: Despite the increase in enrolmentover the past decade, Africa still has 30 millionchildren out of school. To make matters worse,progress in cutting out-of-school numbers hasslowed. Moreover, far too many of Africa’s childrenare unable to meet the most basic learningachievement standards – even after spendingfour years or more in primary school. We look ateducation in detail in Part IV.5. The glass“half-empty” perspective
26AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 20121. Preventing unwanted pregnancies2. ENSURING SAFE PREGNANCIES AND CHILDBIRTH3. KEEPING BABIES AND SMALL CHILDREN ALIVEProportion of women who are using any method of contraception among women aged 15-49, married or in a union, 1990, 2000 and 2008 (Percentage)Maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, 1990, 2000, 2008Under-five mortality rate, 1990 and 2009 (Deaths per 1000 live births)020406080100Sub-SaharanAfricaWesternAsiaOceania Caucasus& CentralAsiaSouthernAsiaNorthernAfricaCaribbean SouthEasternAsiaLatinAmericaEasternAsia1320 2229 32 37 4047544451554459 61546056 5460 62485762 6372 747886 840020040400806001208001601 000200Sub-SaharanAfricaCaribbeanSouthernAsiaSouthEasternAsiaOceania NorthernAfricaLatinAmericaWesternAsiaCaucasus& CentralAsiaEasternAsia870790640Sub-SaharanAfrica180129Caucasus& CentralAsia7837NorthernAfrica8026SouthernAsia12269SouthEasternAsia7336LatinAmerica& Carribean5223Oceania7659WesternAsia6832EasternAsia4519590420280 29026023032023017038023016019901990199020002000200820082009MDGtargetMDGtarget23092120 13080991407098 70 54691104163Source:UnitedNations,2011.TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsReport2011.Maternal and child health atthe heart of MDG progressFigure 7:
27Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangeWhat does inequality have to do with this state ofaffairs? Figure 5 provides part of the answer. Considerthe evidence on infant survival. Infant mortality ratesfor the poorest 20 per cent in Nigeria are more than50 per cent higher than for the richest 20 per cent,and in many countries, living in rural areas magnifiesrisk of infant death.The unequal outcomes reflected in Figure 5 aresymptomatic of wider disparities in access to basicservices. Poor women are less likely to receiveantenatal care and less likely to give birth under skilledattendance at a health facility. In Ethiopia, women inurban areas are twice as likely to receive antenatalcare as those in rural areas. And children from poorhouseholds are less likely to be fully immunised againstinfectious diseases. In Nigeria, the poorest children(who are most at risk) have vaccination rates lessthan 10 per cent of the coverage levels for childrenfrom the wealthiest households (Figure 5). Narrowinginequalities in health and education would createa win–win scenario – it would be good for equityand would act as a catalyst for more rapid progresstowards the MDG targets.To overcome disparities such as these, governmentsmust identify failures of policy and provision andtarget policy interventions accordingly. In somecases, unequal patterns of public expenditure meanthat basic health facilities are not accessible. In othercases, the services may be there, but poor womenmay be unable to afford the fees charged for childand maternal healthcare; or the quality of servicesmay be so poor that they are unwilling to use them.The pattern of health services is often unresponsiveto the needs of women. To take one example, Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest level ofunmet demand for family planning. One quarter ofwomen aged between 15 and 49 express a desire todelay or avoid pregnancy but are not using any formof contraception – and that figure has not changedsince 1990. Apart from denying women the right tocontrol their fertility and manage their reproductivehealth, restricted access to family planning exposesmany to the risks associated with unsafe abortion,HIV/AIDS, and insufficient birth spacing34.A more positive story in maternal mortality is unlikelywithout extending quality health services to peoplein need, particularly the poorest, most marginalisedand those living in hard to reach and fragile contexts.Skilled and motivated health workers appropriatelyarmed with the tools of their trade (drugs, diagnostics,and medical equipment) are needed across Africa.It will require political commitment to reallocateresources to reach all those in need and tackle thestructural and social causes of inequity that adverselyaffect people’s health and wellbeing.Uncertainty of international financing for health hasprompted African leaders, such as Ellen JohnsonSirleaf to commit to weaning their countries off foreignaid. She calls for sound policies, genuine leadership,and reliable partnerships from the world, so thatAfrica can be free of the need for developmentassistance in a generation. That requires a collectivecommitment to implement credible nationalhealth plans that deliver results in Africa. A strongevidence base will help achieve better value formoney, by: identifying cost-effective interventions;improving the delivery of services; facilitating positivebehavioural change (e.g. increased use of bed netsand decreased sexual risk-taking); and managingemerging risks, such as drug resistance.
28AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012* ratio of human water use to renewable water supplyFOOD SECURITY RISK INDEXExtremeHighMediumLowNo dataData source: Maplecroft 2012Food Security Risk Indexmaplecroftrisk responsibility™reputationFigure 8:With some 340 million people lacking access to safe drinking water, Africa is the onlyregion not on track to meet the MDG 7 target.ACTION AREAS• Need for concerted effort on the part of all stakeholders for a new approach to provide improved infrastructure,strengthened management of water resources and universal access• Mobilise resources to reduce existing disparities between rural and urban settings and between different social groups• Incorporate water improvements into economic development agendas• Develop trans-boundary water agreements to reduce the probability of water-related conflicts• Donors should swiftly replenish the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative (RWSSI) and the African Water Facility(AWF)WATER: A CRITICAL CHALLENGE NOTONLY FOR THE MDGSData sources: Maplecroft2012, CIESIN, 2004; NIMA, 1999; WWDRII, 2000Mean Annual Relative Water Stress Index ** ratio of huma water use to renewable water supplyLow ExtremeNo dataMean Annual Relative Water Stress Index ** ratio of huma water use to renewable water supplyLow ExtremeNo data* ratio of huma water use to renewable water supplyLow ExtremeNo dataWater Stress Index: The Water Stress Index evaluates the ratio of total water use (sum of domestic, industrial and agricultural demand) to renewablewater supply, which is the available local runoff (precipitation less evaporation) as delivered through streams, rivers and shallow groundwater. It does notinclude access to deep subterranean aquifers of water accumulated over centuries and millennia.Rapid urbanization plus the effects of climate change are putting increased stress on access to water and sanitation. Approximately fortyper cent of Africans do not have adequate access to sanitation or water supplies. By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa mayexperience increased water stress.Water insecurity also reduces agriculture output and increases the incidence of disease. In Africa, around 750,000 children under 5 yearsof age die every year from unsafe water.It is estimated that Africa loses US$28 billion a year due to a lack of access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation.The gender implications of water stress are profound. Women are more likely to be responsible for water collection. In parts of Africa, ittakes 8 hours a day to find water leaving little time for education and paid employment.WATER STRESS INDEX
29Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global ChangeThe MDGs are part of a two-way compactbetween developing- and developed-countrygovernments. In Africa that compact has deliveredtangible results. But there are areas in which donorshave failed to honour their part of the MDG pledge.International aid is a critical part of the MDGcompact. In 2005, at the G8 summit in Gleneaglesand elsewhere, donors made specific commitmentsto increase aid. When quantified by the OECDSecretariat, the pledges implied raising ODA fromabout $80 billion to nearly $130 billion (in 2004prices). At Gleneagles, G8 donors also envisagedan increase in total ODA to Africa of $25 billion.However, preliminary estimates for 2010 show thatAfrica received only an additional $11 billion. Themain reason is the poor performance of several of thedonors that provide large shares of their aid to Africa.As we highlight in Part V, there is little evidence of aidto Africa rising significantly in the near future. Whilegreater self-reliance in Africa is highly welcome, it isregrettable that many donors have failed to deliverwhat they promised – particularly at a time when itseems evident that the potential for aid to be usedeffectively in Africa is particularly high.Partnerships in health have played a major rolein supporting the gains outlined in the previoussection. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosisand Malaria is a focal point for international efforts,enabling donors, philanthropic foundations andprivate companies to pool resources and coordinateefforts to support national strategies. The Global Fundprovided $12 billion to Africa between 2002 and theend of 2010, supporting anti-retroviral therapy (ART)for 2.3 million people living with HIV and supportingthe treatment of 140 million malaria cases by the endof 2010, including 53 million cases in 2010 alone.Other health partnerships have also made adifference. The Stop TB Partnership has played arole in the diagnosis and treatment of 41 milliontuberculosis cases between 2005 and 2009, savingup to 6 million lives. The Roll Back Malaria Partnershipand the Global Fund have contributed to a surge inproviding and locally producing insecticide-treatedmosquito nets. Between 2008 and 2010, 290 millionnets were distributed in Sub-Saharan Africa, enoughto cover up to three-quarters of people at risk.The GAVI Alliance (formerly the Global Alliance forVaccines and Immunisation) has demonstrated thateven during periods of fiscal stress, high-impact aidpartnerships can galvanise resources and politicalsupport. In 2011, GAVI secured a donor commitmentof an additional US$4.3 billion for the period up to2015, considerably exceeding the initial target ofUS$3.7 billion. This was an example of donors, non-government organisations, philanthropists and theprivate sector coming together with governmentsfrom Africa and other developing regions to securedevelopment financing aimed at achieving well-defined shared goals – in this case immunisation foranother 243 million children by 2015 on top of the 326million they had already helped by 2011.While the global partnerships on health havedelivered results, other critical areas such as water,sanitation and education have faced problems inmobilising support. For example, the aid financinggap for achieving the education MDGs is estimatedby UNESCO’s Education for All Global MonitoringReport at around $16 billion annually in the poorestcountries, while aid levels have stagnated at around$3 billion. In contrast with the GAVI Alliance, thefinancial replenishment of the Global Partnership forEducation (GPE) – a multilateral facility – resulted incommitments of just $1.5 billion over three to fouryears, compared with an initial request for $2.5 billion.Conflict-affected countries in particular have beenpoorly served by the international aid architecture foreducation (Box 4). Of course, the difficulties for donorsoperating in countries emerging from long-runningconflicts are well known. Challenges associated withweak public financial management systems, limitedcapacity and governance problems have to beaddressed. But this should not preclude innovativeand flexible strategies aimed at delivering results inareas such as basic health care and education.6. Building on theglobal partnership
30AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012BOX 4: South Sudan – still awaiting an education peace dividendSix years after the comprehensive peace agreement that brought an end to Sudan’s long-running civil war,South Sudan’s children are still waiting for the education peace dividend that could transform their lives.South Sudan has embarked on independence anchored to the bottom of the world rankings for educationand gender equity. Over half of the country’s primary school age children – one million in total – are out ofschool. In a country of 10 million, there are fewer than 400 girls in the final grade of secondary school. Onthe balance of risk and opportunity, young girls are less likely to reach the last grade of primary school thanthey are to die as a result of pregnancy and childbirth. There are desperate shortages of trained teachers,classrooms and books.Education is vital not just for creating jobs and cutting poverty, but also for cultivating attitudes that helpdevelop a more peaceful society. To its credit, the government of South Sudan has made education anational priority. And the people of South Sudan have demonstrated an extraordinary level of resilience,innovation and courage in keeping alive the hope of education. Unfortunately, education has attractedlimited donor financing, and aid effectiveness has suffered as a result of weak coordination. The GlobalPartnership for Education (GPE), has yet to provide either financial assistance or technical support.A recent report has proposed international support for an emergency “education catch-up plan” for SouthSudan that would expand learning opportunities for three million South Sudan children and young people.Financing requirements estimated at around $400 million annually would be mobilised through the WorldBank, the GPE, the African Development Bank and bilateral donors, with support channelled through apooled fund35.For all of the problems that they have faced, the globalhealth funds have a strong record of achievement.Transforming the GPE into an independent globalfund modelled on the best practices of the healthfunds could create renewed momentum for progresstowards the education goals. The GPE could focusits efforts explicitly on a “big push” towards the2015 targets, focusing on the most disadvantagedcountries, children who are being left behind and theneed to improve learning achievements.
Africa’s future will be shaped by its people and by thepolicies of its governments. But no country or region caninsulate itself from the wider forces of globalisation. And nogovernment can afford to ignore how these forces mightinteract with the social and economic currents that areredefining their countries.PART IIFIVE GLOBAL TRENDS THATARE SHAPING AFRICA
32AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2012Some broad trends are more predictable thanothers. Demography is one area in which the faceof the future can be anticipated with some degreeof confidence. In the case of Africa, that face isincreasingly youthful.The power of demographyAfrica is in the midst of a profound demographicshift. Population is growing faster than in anyother region. Over the next few decades, there willbe a surge in the number of young people living in theregion. With fertility rates beginning to decline, Africacould be on the brink of the type of demographicrevolution that Asia experienced three decades ago.As the ratio of working-age people to dependantsrises, economic growth could get a boost – ademographic dividend.That is the opportunity. The risk is that the potentialdividend will become a demographic disastermarked by rising levels of youth unemployment,social dislocation and hunger. Outcomes will dependon whether or not the current generation of youngAfricans makes the transition to adulthood equippedwith the education and skills they need to realise theirpotential – and on whether job creation takes off.Anyone doubting the power of population growthshould consider Africa’s basic demographicarithmetic. When economic recovery took root adecade ago, the region had a population of 670million people. By 2025, that figure will have doubled– and population will continue rising into the secondhalf of the 21st century.Youth is already one of the defining features of Africa’sdemography (Figure 10). The median-aged African isjust 18. That is 7 years younger than their counterpartin South Asia, and 16 years younger than in China.The base of Africa’s age pyramid is widening. Today,there are 70 million more Africans aged under 14 thanthere were a decade ago. Over the next decade,that number will rise by another 76 million. These trendshave consequences across all areas of public policy.Consider the case of education. Just to hold primaryschool enrolment rates constant, governmentswill have to provide the classrooms and teachersneeded to raise school participation by another 14per cent. Assuming that Africa continues to progressin education, many of these children will make thetransition to secondary school before making thetransition to employment markets.That transition is already a difficult one – and in theabsence of job creation on a very large scale, it willbecome more difficult. Over the last 10 years, thenumber of 15–24-year-olds in Africa has increasedfrom 133 million to 172 million. By 2020, that figure willrise to 246 million. Consequently, another 74 millionjobs will have to be created over the next decadesimply in order to prevent youth unemployment fromrising.To understand how demography is changing the faceof nations, you just have to glance at a populationroad map for countries at different stages of thedemographic transition. One way of measuringwhere countries stand is to compare “dependencyratio” indicators. The ratio of those aged 0–14 to thoseaged 15–64 is one such indicator. As countries age,the dependency ratio falls. For developed countries,the current ratio is around 24 per cent. It rises to 47 forSouth Asia. In Africa, it is 77.The infographic on demographic trends (Figure 10)illustrates the 0–14 age group in some African countriesand compares the population-change trajectoriesof Brazil, China and India. China’s demographicturning point started four decades ago. By 2020, the1. Demography andhuman geographypreparing for the youthsurgeThis section looks at five global trends that areinfluencing Africa’s future:1. Demography and human geographypreparing for the youth surge2. Global food securitymore people on a warming planet3. Tectonic shifts in economics and politicsthe rise of the emerging powers4. Science, technology and innovationfuelling growth and development5. The rising tide of citizen actionNoneofthesetrendsoperatesinisolation.Eachcomeswithrisks and opportunities and each interacts with the others.How Africa’s people, governments and developmentpartnersmanagetherisksandrespondtotheopportunitieswill determine how each trend plays out.
33Jobs, Justice and Equity: Seizing Opportunities in Times of Global Changenumber of those aged 0–14 will be one third lowerthan in 2000. In Brazil, the number of children aged0–14 started to decline 20 years ago. India is just atthe tipping point of a demographic transition. Thesize of the 0–14-year-old population is flattening out.The trajectories for Africa look very different. Considerthe case of Nigeria, which is on the lower slopes of apopulation growth curve trending strongly upwards.Over the next decade, the number of those aged0–14 will increase by over 25 million. With the countryalready struggling to generate jobs for the previousgeneration of 0–14-year-olds, the youth employmentchallenge is set to intensify.Urbanisation is reshapinghuman geographyAfrica’s human geography is also undergoingprofound changes. Pushed by rural poverty andpulled by the hope of employment, more and more ofthe region’s people are migrating to cities.Today, around one-third of Africans live in urbancentres – more than double the share two decadesago. By 2025, the UN estimates that urban centres willbe home to 45 per cent of the population36. Africa’smega-cities are already growing at a prolific rate. Thepopulation of Kinshasa, the capital of the DemocraticRepublic of Congo, grew by 2 million between 2005and 2010, putting it into the “10 million plus” league37.Lagos, Nigeria, could be a city of 14 million by 202038.There are two sides to the urbanisation story. Urbancentres have emerged as hubs of innovation,employment and human networking, acting asmagnets for entrepreneurs and job seekers. But theyare also centres of acute deprivation. Sprawlingslums like Makoko, on the outskirts of Lagos, or Kiberain Nairobi, Kenya, have some of the world’s highestpopulation densities, with their residents living inappalling conditions.Informal settlements are growing rapidly. Accordingto UN Habitat, the number of slum dwellers in Africahas doubled over the past decade to more than200 million39. There is no shortage of innovation andentrepreneurial activity in slums. On the contrary,innovation is an urban survival strategy. Yet conditions inmany of Africa’s slums are unacceptable. All too often,basic public services and public goods – clean water,sanitation, health, education and security – are scarceor non-existent and the state is practically absent.Future patterns of urbanisation will be superimposedon a backdrop of already widespread urban squalor.If the UN’s projections are right, population growth andrural–urban migration will lead to another 145 millionAfricans living in towns and cities by 2020 – a 50 percent increase in population40. If past trends continue,the majority will be living in informal settlementswhere the housing and basic service infrastructure isalready hopelessly overstretched, and where moreovercrowding will create new public health risks.URBANIsATION FACTS AND TRENDSToday 1/3 of Africans live in urban centresBy 2025, the UN estimates 45% of the population will be living in urban areasThis will mean that an additional 145 million people will move to cities, many of which will end up living in urban slumsAccording to UN Habitat, the number of slum dwellers in Africa has doubled over the past decade to more than 200 millionCITIES CONTINUETO EXPAND ANDconcentrateManaging informal settlements (expansion and population)Providing basic services (in particular education, improving security and social housing)Expanding infrastructure (access to water, sanitation, electricity and transportation networks)Job creation (economic and social integration of the growing population)These trends pose aseries of IMPORTANTchallenges• innovation• economic opportunities• jobs and education• access to goods andservices• crime• over-population• public health hazards• segregation andinequalityFigure 9:
34demographics2011: AYEAR OF SOCIAL UPRISIGovernmentoverthrown Ongoingprotests,civildisorderandgovernmentalchanges MLEGENDINFOGRAPHIC 1:north america 2010 2030 2050Total population* (thousands) 344 529 401 657 446 862% of global population 4,97 4,83 4,80EUROPE 2010 2030 2050Total population* (thousands) 738 199 741 233 719 257% of global population 10,70 8,91 7,73Africa 2010 2030 2050Total population* (thousands) 1 022 234 1 562 047 2 191 599% of global population 14,82 18,77 23,55Population in 2050Population in 2010ANTICIPATING AYOUTH SURGEOver the next few decades, there will be a surgein the number of young people living in Africa.With fertility rates dropping, Africa could be onthe brink of the type of demographic revolutionthat Asia experienced three decades ago.WPP 2010 Population EstimatesWPP 2010 Low Variant ProjectionWPP 2010 High Variant ProjectionProbabilistic Median1950 210020502010nigeria1950 210020502010china1950 210020502010brazil1950 210020502010KENYA884376735604400218,50178south america 2010 2030 2050Total population* (thousands) 392 555 461 496 488 073% of global population 5,70 5,55 5,24the median estimate for worldpopulation in 2050 is 9 billionThe Population of Asia and Africa is expected to double by 2050Figure 10: