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Global Monitoring Report 2012
Food prices, Nutrition, and the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs)
Europe and Central Asia
...
Global Monitoring Report 2012
Food prices, Nutrition, and the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs)

Europe and Central Asia...
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2012 Food Prices Nutrition and the Millennium Development Goals.IMF and World Bank Global Monitoring Report.Europe and Central Asia

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2012 Food Prices Nutrition and the Millennium Development Goals.IMF and World Bank Global Monitoring Report.Europe and Central Asia

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Transcript of "2012 Food Prices Nutrition and the Millennium Development Goals.IMF and World Bank Global Monitoring Report.Europe and Central Asia"

  1. 1. Global Monitoring Report 2012 Food prices, Nutrition, and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Europe and Central Asia April 2012 Progress toward the MDGs In Europe and Central Asia the proportion of poor has been halved since 1990, and the target on access to water has been reached. Progress toward achieving universal primary education and promoting gender equality is currently on track. However, increased efforts must be undertaken with regards to improving maternal health and access to basic sanitation (figure 1). Progress toward halving the proportion of people who suffer from hunger is lagging in Europe and Central Asia. More than 80 percent of countries in the region are off track of the nutrition target, whereas, three countries have already halved the number of people who suffer from hunger (figure 2). Figure 2. Progress toward reducing undernourishment Figure 1. Global and regional performances 100% Developing countries 100% 95% 90% Europe and Central Asia 100% Seriously off track 96% 97% Off track On track Achieved 24 18 87% Low and Middle  Income 80% 74% 68 17 72% 72% 70% 65% 5 1 0 2 60%   d r a w 50% o t   s s e r g 40% o r P 51% 52% 52% 38% Europe and Central  Asia 30% 13 3 3 20% 10% 0% MDG 1a. Extreme  MDG 2a. Primary  MDG 3a. Ratio of  MDG 4a. Mortality  MDG 4a. Mortality  MDG 5a. Maternal  MDG 7c. Improved  MDG 7c. Improved  rate, infant (per  rate, under‐5 (per  mortality ratio  water source (% of  sanitation facilities  completion rate,  girls to boys in  poverty (% of  1,000 live births) (modeled estimate, population without  (% of population  population below  total (% of relevant  primary and  1,000) access) without access) age group) secondary  per 100,000 live  $1.25 a day in 2005  education (%) births) PPP) Note: a value of 100% means that respective MDG has been reached. Values denote present progress as illustrated by most recent available data: Extreme poverty—2010; Primary completion rate—2009; Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary—2009; Mortality rate, infant—2010; Mortality rate, under 5—2010; Maternal mortality ratio—2008; Improved water source—2010; Improved sanitation facilities—2008. Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from the World Development Indicators database. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percent of countries Note: Chart depicts the ratio of absolute regional improvement to global improvement by MDG. Improvement is measured as the difference between latest available value (see note figure 1) and starting value circa 1990. Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from the World Development Indicators database. Food price spikes and nutrition Europe and Central Asia is quite diverse. Large grain imports and high shares of food in household budgets make Albania, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Tajikistan vulnerable to rising food prices. By contrast, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine are food exporters that benefit from increased commodity prices. Similar to net exporting countries in Latin America, net exporting countries in this region with populations that spend significant shares of household budgets on food face continued political pressure to impose export bans or to fix prices. Mean height for age (Z-scores) across different regions show that Europe and Central Asia is performing relatively well, in terms of stunting, despite recent food price spikes. For countries like Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro and Turkey the shortfall in height after two years of age, compared with a World Health Organization reference, is smaller than in other regions, although still below a healthy benchmark.   The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW, Washington DC 20433 Email: gmr@worldbank.org www.worldbank.org/gmr2012
  2. 2. Global Monitoring Report 2012 Food prices, Nutrition, and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Europe and Central Asia April 2012 Figure 3. Net ODA disbursements to developing regions (US $ million, 2009 prices) Policy responses The chosen policy mix at the country level depends critically on how much of a country’s food needs to be imported, how much the poor spend on food, and the socio-economic characteristics of the poor affected. The policy mix also depends on a country’s integration with regional and world markets, its level of productivity compared to what is achievable, and on its government’s capacity to target the poor and vulnerable through mitigating interventions. In addition, much is contingent on a county’s initial macroeconomic condition and thus its ability to expand public expenditure programs or to provide tax incentives without jeopardizing fiscal sustainability. 250,000 1991‐2000 2001‐2010 200,000 150,000 100,000 In terms of policy responses, short-term measures should aim at mitigating the immediate adverse impacts on the poor and vulnerable. Long-term measures should seek to address demand and supply side imbalances at the regional and local levels. In response to August 2010 escalating grain prices, the Russian Federation imposed a temporary export ban on wheat, barley, rye, maize, and wheat and rye flour until the end of December 2010. On October 2010, the export ban on grain was extended until the end of June 2011, the ban on flour was allowed to expire. The export bans were originally a response to a drought that caused a 50,000 0 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central  Latin America &  Asia Caribbean Middle East &  North Africa South Asia Sub‐Saharan  Africa Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from OECD. shortfall in the grain harvest and associated rapid grain price increases in both domestic and international markets. According to official estimates, farmers harvested almost 37 percent less grain than they did in 2009. The export ban was intended to insulate Russia from highly volatile grain prices by reducing exports in 2010–11 to the 3 million tons already shipped at that time, resulting in a drop of nearly 12 million tons of exports initially projected for the year. The export restrictions had unintended and undesirable consequences, such as undermining Russia’s long-term policy of becoming an even more important player in the global grain market, encouraging hoarding in expectation of the bans’ removal, distorting prices, and affecting the investment and production decisions of its farmers. Support from international development partners Europe and Central Asia saw a substantial increase in ODA, albeit from a low base. Real aid disbursements shifted from Bosnia-Herzegovina (30 percent of regional disbursements) and Turkey (17 percent) toward Serbia. Real ODA to Serbia increased from $1.6 billion in the 1990s to $10.3 billion in the 2000s (figure 3). Despite the spike in food prices, ODA commitments from all donors to agriculture, food, and nutrition decreased as a share of total ODA between 2000 (17 percent) and 2010 (15 percent). Aid commitments to Europe and Central Asia from DAC bilateral ODA and multilateral developmental assistance to agriculture, food, and nutrition increased from $1.3 billion in constant terms in 2000 to near $2.4 billion in 2010. Assistance for nutrition represents only 2 percent of total agriculture, food, and nutrition commitments, despite widespread evidence that improved nutrition and gains in early childhood development are key in making long-term progress in development (figure 4). Looking ahead, planned CPA disbursements to Europe and Central Asia are on track to decline by 0.8 percent overall and by 1.3 percent in per capita terms (at constant 2009 prices). Turkey is expected to continue to post the largest CPA, and modest growth in the share, over the 2011–13 time horizon, while Uzbekistan is expected to see the strongest growth. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, and Tajikistan are among the countries expected to see significant declines. The World Bank Group Figure 4. Composition of committed ODA to Europe and Central Asia in year 2010 (constant 2009 million $) Basic  nutrition 2%  Emergency food aid  31% To tal  commitments  Food, nutrition an d  ( excluding food,  agriculture nutrition an d  2.402 agriculture) 14 ,062  Rural development  6% Food aid/Food  secu rity programmes  21% Agriculture and Agro‐ industries 40% Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from OECD. 1818 H Street, NW, Washington DC 20433 Email: gmr@worldbank.org www.worldbank.org/gmr2012

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