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Arabic Middle East and North Africa 2012 Food Prices Nutrition and the Millennium Development Goals.IMF and World Bank Global Monitoring Report.
 

Arabic Middle East and North Africa 2012 Food Prices Nutrition and the Millennium Development Goals.IMF and World Bank Global Monitoring Report.

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Arabic Middle East and North Africa 2012 Food Prices Nutrition and the Millennium Development Goals.IMF and World Bank Global Monitoring Report.

Arabic Middle East and North Africa 2012 Food Prices Nutrition and the Millennium Development Goals.IMF and World Bank Global Monitoring Report.

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    Arabic Middle East and North Africa 2012 Food Prices Nutrition and the Millennium Development Goals.IMF and World Bank Global Monitoring Report. Arabic Middle East and North Africa 2012 Food Prices Nutrition and the Millennium Development Goals.IMF and World Bank Global Monitoring Report. Document Transcript

    • ‫ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺼﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ 2102: ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ، ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻟﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻭﺠﺯ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ: ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫1- ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻭﻓﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻟﻔﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻘﺕ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻔﻘﺭ ﻭﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﻤﺭﺍﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻨﺔ. ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺘﻘﺩﻤﺎ ﺴﺭﻴﻌﺎ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺘﻌﻤﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ ﺍﻻﺒﺘﺩﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻭﺍﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﺴﻴﻥ. ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺒﻁﻲﺀ ﻨﺤﻭ ﻀﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺄﻤﻭﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺼﺤﺔ ﻤﺜل ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻭﻓﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻤﻬﺎﺕ )ﺍﻟﺸﻜل‬ ‫1(.‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺨﻔﺽ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﻌﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻉ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻑ ﺒﺒﻁﺀ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ. ﻭﺤﻘﻕ ﺒﻠﺩ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺼل 21 ﺒﻠﺩﺍ ﺘﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ. ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ، ﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤل ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻠﻭل ﻋﺎﻡ 5102 )ﺍﻟﺸﻜل 2(.‬ ‫2 - ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ، ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ، ﻻﺴﻴﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺢ، ﻟﻤﺎ ﻴﻘل ﻋﻥ 05 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ. ﻭﻫﻜﺫﺍ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻀﻐﻁ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﺭﺓ، ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻋﻡ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻭﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ. ﻭﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺼﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﻴﺒﻭﺘﻲ ﻭﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ، ﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ 04 ﻓﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ، ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ، ﻭﻫﻤﺎ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻴﺘﺴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﻀﻌﻑ ﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩﺍﻥ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﻤﻥ 02 ﺇﻟﻰ 04 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ ) ‪World Bank‬‬ ‫‪ .(2011c‬ﻭﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻭﺘﻭﻨﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ. ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻁ ﻤﻬﻴﺄﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﻓﻀل، ﻷﻥ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺠﻨﺒﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﻨﺏ ﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺘﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ. ﻭﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺃﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻠﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻗﺩ ﺴﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﺤﻴﻥ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ، ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺏﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺩﻭﺝ ﻟﺴﻭﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻤﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺯﻤﻨﺔ، ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﻨﺔ ﻭﻨﻘﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻷﺴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺹ. ﻭﺘﺴﺘﺒﺩل ﺍﻷﺴﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺫﻱ ﺒﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﻏﺫﻴﺔ "ﺨﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ". ﻭﻤﻊ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴل ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻲ، ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺯﻡ ﻭﻓﻘﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻡ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺯﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ. ﻓﻔﻲ ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺼﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻨﺼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻼﺘﻲ ﻴﻌﺎﻨﻴﻥ ﻓﻘﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻡ ﻴﻌﺎﻨﻴﻥ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﺯﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻨﺔ.‬ ‫ 1‬ ‫ ‬
    • ‫3- ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻤﺯﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭﻱ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺤﺎﺴﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺒﻠﺩ ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩﻩ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻨﻔﻘﻪ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ، ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﻘﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺜﺭﻴﻥ. ﻭﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻤﺯﻴﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻲ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻗﺎﺒل ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ،‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻌﻔﺎﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻔﻔﺔ. ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ، ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺩﺌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ، ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻹﻀﺭﺍﺭ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ.‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ، ﻴﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻌﻔﺎﺀ. ﻭﻤﻊ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ، ﻴﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ )ﺃﻭ ﻴﻨﺸﺊ( ﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﻟﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺌﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ. ﻭﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ، ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل، ﻭﺼل ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ 5 ﻭ7 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ. ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺘﻨﻁﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻔﺎﻀﻼﺕ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻬﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ. ﻭﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ، ﻴﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻤﻭﻤﺎ ﺍﻷﻁﻌﻤﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺫﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺸﻭﻴﻪ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ، ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﺨﻠﻕ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺱ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺘﻨﻭﻴﻊ ﻭﺠﺒﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﻴﺘﻌﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ. ﻭﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻌﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻏﺫﻴﺔ، ﻻﺴﻴﻤﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ. ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ. ﻭﺘﺒﺭﺯ ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﺫﻟﻙ، ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ: ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻭﻕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ؛ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺯﺌﺔ، ﺤﺴﺏ ﻜل ﺒﻠﺩ، ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﺠﺴﺘﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻨﻘل ﺒﺎﻟﺸﺎﺤﻨﺎﺕ؛ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ، ﻤﺜل‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻨﺊ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﺒﻁ ﺒﺴﻬﻭﻟﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻕ، ﻭﻗﻠﺔ ﻤﻤﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ. ﻭﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﺠﺭﺕ ﺤﺩﻴﺜﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ‬ ‫ﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ 5 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﻭﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ 22 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺎﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ 02 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ.‬ ‫4 - ﺍﻟﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ، ﺘﻠﻘﺕ ﻤﺼﺭ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ 05 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﻡ 0991 ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺎﻡ 9991، ﻴﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ )11 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ( ﺜﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ) 8 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ(. ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻨﺫ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻴﺔ، ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ.‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻠﻘﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ 06 ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻋﺎﻡ 0002، ﺃﻭ 95 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻨﺫ ﻋﺎﻡ 0002 )ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ( )ﺍﻟﺸﻜل 3(.‬ ‫ 2‬ ‫ ‬
    • ‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل، ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺸﻬﺩ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺘﻭﺴﻌﺎ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﻀﻌﺎ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ 9.0 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺒﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻁﻁﺔ1؛ ﻭﻤﻊ ﺫﻟﻙ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻱ ﻴﻨﻁﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ 4.2 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ )ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ(. ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﺘﻭﻨﺱ،‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺼﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ.‬ ‫                                                            ‬ ‫1‬ ‫- ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﻁﻁﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻓﺭﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ 06 ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻨﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻟﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻷﻋﻀﺎﺀ، ﻭﻻ ﺘﺸﻤل ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻴﺱ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺇﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻨﺤﺔ.  ‬ ‫ 3‬ ‫ ‬
    • ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل 1 - ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ‬ ‫%"#‬ ‫!!"‬ ‫(" %!'" ! %"" " ‬ ‫"‬ ‫%'‬ ‫%001‬ ‫%001‬ ‫%001‬ ‫%69‬ ‫%09‬ ‫%39‬ ‫%88 %78‬ ‫%08‬ ‫%07‬ ‫%27‬ ‫%17‬ ‫%86‬ ‫%06‬ ‫%06‬ ‫%06‬ ‫%25‬ ‫%05‬ ‫%15‬ ‫%04‬ ‫%83‬ ‫%03‬ ‫%02‬ ‫%01‬ ‫%0‬ ‫" "$"! (!! $"‬ ‫"‬ ‫7 - ! & ,!‬ ‫!-‬ ‫$"‬ ‫)‬ ‫% & ' $"‬ ‫"‬ ‫!‬ ‫&"! #)" ' "‬ ‫!‬ ‫%' " &!"(!‬ ‫ %‬‫!! - ' (!‬ ‫(‬ ‫&"$‬ ‫" "$"! (!! $"‬ ‫"‬ ‫7 -#% "!" !‬ ‫&"‬ ‫$!‬ ‫(‬ ‫'& $"‬ ‫"‬ ‫"' " !" &"‬ ‫%"‬ ‫&"" '!("‬ ‫#‬ ‫(‬ ‫!" " ! ! &+‬ ‫'‬ ‫" "$"! (!! $"‬ ‫"‬ ‫$ +!‬ ‫%!‬ ‫5- +"!&‬ ‫)& +" $'!‬ ‫!‬ ‫#"‬ ‫( % #" '(‬ ‫!‬ ‫" "$"! (!! $"‬ ‫"‬ ‫4- " + %'"‬ ‫#‬ ‫"‬ ‫)'" ( '‬ ‫%'$"‬ ‫(‬ ‫(‬ ‫#"'(‬ ‫" "$"! (!! $"‬ ‫"‬ ‫4- +" ! &!‬ ‫&-‬ ‫)' ! ' ( #"'(‬ ‫" "$"! (!! $"‬ ‫"‬ ‫3- !+"!!( !‬ ‫( "& ' ! "(!‬ ‫%‬ ‫"(" %)"!‬ ‫%!!"!"‬ ‫# ˦˥˨‬ ‫" "$"! (!! $"‬ ‫"‬ ‫2- " !!%!"#!‬ ‫!‬ ‫" %!! ("‬ ‫&‬ ‫!'‬ ‫٪ $"!%""$‬ ‫%&" $‬ ‫" "$"! (!! $"‬ ‫"‬ ‫1- !#"&"‬ ‫%‬ ‫" ˨˧ "' $ %'!‬ ‫!" "'‬ ‫"(‬ ‫( %'!‬ ‫'"‬ ‫%#"' +"‬ ‫'‬ ‫!"‬ ‫!& $"' #"‬ ‫' "" !‬ ‫'( (‬ ‫$ "! ٪‬ ‫)‬ ‫ﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ: ﻗﻴﻤﺔ 001% ﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ. ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺘﺩل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ: ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻗﻊ – 0102؛ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺇﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ ﺍﻻﺒﺘﺩﺍﺌﻲ – 9002؛ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺎﺙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺫﻜﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ ﺍﻻﺒﺘﺩﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻱ – 9002؛ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻭﻓﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﻀﻊ – 0102؛ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻭﻓﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺴﺔ – 0102؛ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻭﻓﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﻬﺎﺕ -8002؛ ﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻨﺔ – 0102؛ ﻤﺭﺍﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻨﺔ – 8002.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ: ﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺨﺒﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ 4‬ ‫ ‬
    • ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل 2- ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻘﺹ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ: ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﺨﻁ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻴل ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻓﺌﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ: ﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺨﺒﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ 5‬ ‫ ‬
    • ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل 3- ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫+ '#' $""'##, $" "# # $‬ ‫, # ' '‬ ‫#'$""*‬ ‫#‬ ‫%$#+ '#*$‬ ‫, #‬ ‫%‬ ‫+‬ ‫(‬ ‫++‬ ‫000,052‬ ‫0002‐1991‬ ‫000,002‬ ‫0102‐1002‬ ‫000,051‬ ‫000,001‬ ‫000,05‬ ‫& $("‬ ‫! !‬ ‫% #‬ ‫&! !‬ ‫&$&&"‬ ‫%!! !!‬ ‫!‬ ‫' #"‬ ‫!!!!‬ ‫% ! !'‬ ‫#!‬ ‫$ & !!!‬ ‫&'‬ ‫&‬ ‫& ! !!‬ ‫!!# !" (‬ ‫0‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ: ﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﻭﻅﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ.‬ ‫ 6‬ ‫ ‬