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                                 The Longer Tails of
                            iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube:

                              New Technology Shaping
                            Music Preference and Spending
                                                                   	
  
                                                                   	
  
                                                     Andrew	
  D.	
  Penrose	
  
                                  Program	
  in	
  Science,	
  Technology,	
  and	
  Society	
  

                                                     Stanford	
  University	
  
	
  


	
  


	
  


The	
  author	
  wishes	
  to	
  thank	
  his	
  advisors	
  Professor	
  Robert	
  McGinn	
  and	
  Professor	
  David	
  

Voelker	
  at	
  Stanford	
  for	
  their	
  valued	
  feedback	
  and	
  guidance	
  on	
  this	
  project.	
  Additional	
  

thanks	
  to	
  all	
  survey	
  respondents,	
  interview	
  volunteers,	
  Professor	
  Fred	
  Turner	
  for	
  the	
  

lecture	
  that	
  inspired	
  this	
  study,	
  and	
  all	
  others	
  who	
  contributed	
  support.	
  


	
  


	
  


Correspondence	
  concerning	
  this	
  paper	
  can	
  be	
  sent	
  to	
  Andrew	
  Penrose,	
  675	
  Lomita	
  Drive,	
  

Stanford,	
  CA	
  94305.	
  Address	
  email	
  to	
  apenrose@stanford.edu.	
  

	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                               Penrose	
  


                                                                Abstract	
  

While	
   the	
   limited	
   bandwidth	
   of	
   FM	
   radio	
   facilitated	
   widespread	
   adoption	
   of	
   mainstream	
  

music	
   preferences	
   and	
   spending	
   habits,	
   new	
   digital	
   music	
   technologies	
   recommend	
   and	
  

feature	
   music	
   based	
   on	
   personalized	
   user	
   profile	
   data.	
   	
   Whether	
   this	
   includes	
   tracking	
  

purchase	
   history,	
   song	
   “likes”,	
   users’	
   emotions,	
   or	
   otherwise,	
   the	
   shift	
   from	
   majority-­‐based	
  

music	
   recommendation	
   to	
   individual-­‐based	
   is	
   a	
   recent	
   and	
   relatively	
   unexplored	
  

development	
  in	
  the	
  music	
  industry.	
  	
  The	
  purpose	
  of	
  this	
  study	
  is	
  two-­‐fold:	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  

most	
  influential	
  factors	
  shaping	
  users’	
  choice	
  of	
  music	
  technology,	
  and	
  the	
  extent	
  to	
  which	
  

these	
   new	
   technologies	
   affect	
   music	
   preferences,	
   spending	
   and	
   engagement.	
   Focusing	
   on	
  

iTunes,	
   Pandora,	
   and	
   YouTube,	
   purpose-­‐built	
   surveys	
   examine	
   the	
   reasons	
   users	
   choose	
  

each	
   service	
   and	
   how	
   they	
   perceive	
   the	
   technologies	
   have	
   affected	
   their	
   music	
  

consumption.	
   Additional	
   survey	
   questions	
   seek	
   patterns	
   and	
   correlations	
   between	
  

demographics,	
   musical	
   experience,	
   music	
   preferences,	
   and	
   music	
   listening	
   environment.	
  

125	
   college	
   students	
   voluntarily	
   completed	
   the	
   survey,	
   revealing	
   strong	
   correlations	
  

between	
  variables	
  currently	
  ignored	
  by	
  music	
  recommendation	
  technology.	
  By	
  enhancing	
  

our	
  understanding	
  of	
  how	
  new	
  music	
  technologies	
  impact	
  individual	
  users,	
  this	
  study	
  may	
  

guide	
   how	
   music	
   applications	
   can	
   improve	
   user	
   profiling,	
   personalization,	
   and	
   the	
   user’s	
  

music-­‐listening	
  experience	
  as	
  a	
  whole.	
  


	
  


Keywords:	
  digital	
  music	
  technology,	
  the	
  Long	
  Tail,	
  music	
  preferences,	
  profiling,	
  multivariate	
  
music	
  recommendation,	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora,	
  YouTube,	
  internet	
  radio	
  
	
  
	
  

	
                                                               	
                                                             1	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                     Penrose	
  


                                                             Table	
  of	
  Contents	
  
INTRODUCTION	
  (3-­4)	
  
LITERATURE	
  REVIEW	
  (4-­10)	
  
  THE	
  LONG	
  TAIL:	
  NEW	
  TECHNOLOGY	
  REVEALING	
  NICHE	
  PREFERENCES	
  
  MUSIC	
  PREFERENCE	
  STUDIES	
  
METHODS	
  (10-­16)	
  
 SAMPLING	
  
 CONCEPTS	
  
   Demographics	
  
   Musical	
  Experience	
  
   Music	
  Preferences	
  
   Listening	
  Environment	
  
   Music	
  Service	
  Features	
  and	
  Effects	
  
 CODING	
  AND	
  DATA	
  ANALYSIS	
  
 RESPONDENTS	
  
RESULTS	
  (16-­60)	
  
  MUSIC	
  PREFERENCE	
  AND	
  DETERMINING	
  FACTORS	
  
    Song	
  Preference	
  
    Genre	
  Preference	
  
    Determining	
  Factors	
  in	
  Music	
  Preference	
  
             Correlations	
  Between	
  Genres	
  
             Demographics	
  and	
  Genre	
  Preferences	
  
             Musical	
  Experience	
  and	
  Genre	
  Preferences	
  
             Listening	
  Environment	
  and	
  Genre	
  Preferences	
  
       	
  
       MUSIC	
  TECHNOLOGY	
  PREFERENCE	
  AND	
  DETERMINING	
  FACTORS	
  
            Factors	
  in	
  Music	
  Technology	
  Preference	
  
             Favorite	
  Feature	
  
             Demographics	
  and	
  Music	
  Technology	
  Preference	
  
             Musical	
  Experience	
  and	
  Music	
  Technology	
  Preference	
  
             Music	
  Preference	
  and	
  Music	
  Technology	
  Preference	
  
       	
  
       MUSIC	
  TECHNOLOGY	
  INFLUENCING	
  PREFERENCE	
  AND	
  SPENDING	
  
            Effects	
  on	
  Music	
  Preference	
  
             Listen	
  More	
  
             Wider	
  Range	
  of	
  Genres	
  
             Deeper	
  Within	
  Familiar	
  Genres	
  
             More	
  Sharing	
  Music	
  
          Effects	
  on	
  Spending	
  
             More	
  Buying	
  
             Buying	
  Different	
  Music	
  
             Buying	
  Concert	
  Tickets	
  
             Music	
  is	
  Bigger	
  

DISCUSSION	
  (61-­65)	
  
REFERENCES	
  (66)	
  
APPENDIX	
  (67-­75)	
  
	
  
	
  
	
                                                                         	
                      2	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                        Penrose	
  


	
  
                                                                 Introduction	
  
                                                                       	
  
           It’s	
   your	
   last	
   high	
   school	
   gym	
   class	
   before	
   moving	
   to	
   college.	
   You	
   return	
   to	
   your	
  

locker	
   to	
   find	
   the	
   lock	
   broken	
   and	
   someone	
   has	
   stolen	
   your	
   iPod	
   and	
   entire	
   music	
  

collection	
  out	
  of	
  your	
  backpack.	
  Fearing	
  you	
  may	
  turn	
  to	
  a	
  life	
  of	
  digital	
  piracy	
  and	
  cyber	
  

crime,	
   your	
   parents	
   purchase	
   the	
   new	
   32GB	
   iPod	
   Touch	
   that	
   holds	
   7,000	
   songs	
   and	
  

connects	
   to	
   the	
   Internet.	
   Having	
   lost	
   all	
   of	
   your	
   music,	
   you	
   research	
   some	
   popular	
   music	
  

applications.	
  It’s	
  May	
  20,	
  2012	
  and	
  as	
  of	
   April	
  30th,	
  the	
  iTunes	
  store	
  offered	
  over	
  28	
  million	
  

songs.	
  How	
  do	
  you	
  choose	
  which	
  0.025%	
  to	
  buy?	
  Do	
  you	
  instead	
  rely	
  on	
  the	
  endless	
  stream	
  

of	
   YouTube	
   videos	
   your	
   friends	
   share	
   on	
   Facebook,	
   or	
   do	
   you	
   create	
   a	
   Pandora	
   station	
   like	
  

the	
  150	
  million	
  other	
  Americans	
  that	
  enjoy	
  personalized	
  music	
  recommendations?	
  


           The	
  limited	
  bandwidth	
  of	
  AM/FM	
  radio	
  necessitated	
  a	
  popularity	
  contest	
  for	
  songs,	
  

but	
   the	
   technical	
   constraints	
   of	
   terrestrial	
   radio	
   don’t	
   apply	
   to	
   digital	
   music.	
   The	
  

combination	
   of	
   nearly	
   unlimited	
   music	
   choice	
   and	
   a	
   wide	
   variety	
   of	
   music	
   sites	
   make	
  

modern	
   music	
   experiences	
   vastly	
   more	
   personal	
   than	
   terrestrial	
   radio.	
   The	
   proliferation	
   of	
  

song	
  recommendations,	
  shared	
  playlists,	
  and	
  music	
  blogs	
  attest	
  to	
  the	
  power	
  of	
  the	
  digital	
  

music	
  experience.	
  


           After	
  a	
  particularly	
  inspiring	
  lecture	
  on	
  digital	
  media	
  by	
  Professor	
  Fred	
  Turner	
  last	
  

year,	
  I	
  designed	
  and	
  conducted	
  a	
  survey	
  on	
  Pandora	
  use	
  for	
  a	
  Communication	
  course	
  at	
  

Stanford.	
  Asking	
  112	
  respondents	
  if	
  they	
  had	
  ever	
  bought	
  an	
  unfamiliar	
  song	
  after	
  hearing	
  

it	
  only	
  once	
  on	
  Pandora,	
  59	
  students	
  equaling	
  53%	
  of	
  the	
  sample	
  indicated	
  that	
  they	
  had.	
  

Even	
  more	
  surprising,	
  15	
  students	
  (13%)	
  indicated	
  they	
  had	
  bought	
  an	
  entire	
  album	
  after	
  

	
                                                                    	
                                                                  3	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                   Penrose	
  


hearing	
  a	
  song	
  from	
  it	
  for	
  the	
  first	
  time	
  on	
  Pandora.	
  Although	
  I	
  recognized	
  that	
  the	
  Stanford	
  

students	
  that	
  made	
  up	
  the	
  survey	
  sample	
  were	
  not	
  representative	
  of	
  Pandora’s	
  entire	
  user	
  

base,	
  it	
  seemed	
  likely	
  that	
  a	
  significant	
  percentage	
  of	
  Pandora’s	
  users	
  were	
  purchasing	
  

unfamiliar	
  music	
  as	
  well.	
  I	
  wanted	
  to	
  know	
  how	
  these	
  new	
  transactions	
  would	
  affect	
  the	
  

music	
  industry,	
  amidst	
  declining	
  sales	
  and	
  a	
  torrent	
  of	
  illegal	
  filesharing	
  applications.	
  	
  


	
  


                                                                  Literature	
  Review	
  


The	
  Long	
  Tail	
  of	
  Digital	
  Music:	
  New	
  Technology	
  Revealing	
  Niche	
  Preferences	
  


           After	
   Chris	
   Anderson	
   published	
   his	
   article	
   “The	
   Long	
   Tail”	
   in	
   Wired	
   magazine	
   in	
  

October	
  of	
  2004,	
  it	
  quickly	
  became	
  the	
  most	
  cited	
  article	
  in	
  Wired’s	
  history,	
  and	
  his	
  book	
  

became	
   one	
   of	
   the	
   most	
   influential	
   business	
   books	
   of	
   the	
   decade	
   (Anderson).	
   Using	
   e-­‐

commerce	
   data	
   that	
   had	
   been	
   historically	
   restricted	
   to	
   executives,	
   the	
   book	
   outlines	
  

Anderson’s	
  theory	
  that	
  the	
  Internet	
  has	
  expanded	
  the	
  range	
  of	
  effective	
  inventory	
  from	
  a	
  

limited	
   number	
   of	
   “hits”,	
   as	
   seen	
   on	
   WalMart	
   and	
   Blockbuster	
   shelves,	
   to	
   nearly	
   infinity.	
  

Since	
   the	
   post-­‐WWII	
   era	
   of	
   TV	
   and	
  

radio,	
   businesses	
   have	
   traditionally	
  

capitalized	
   on	
   the	
   power	
   of	
   the	
   top	
  

100	
   or	
   even	
   100,000	
   mainstream	
  

products,	
   ignoring	
   all	
   the	
   books,	
  

songs,	
   and	
   goods	
   that	
   didn’t	
   make	
  

the	
   charts	
   (Figure	
   1).	
   But	
   as	
   both	
  


                                                           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Figure	
  1	
  
	
                                                                                             	
                                  4	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                        Penrose	
  


Anderson	
   and	
   Lessig	
   point	
   out,	
   the	
   recent	
   success	
   stories	
   of	
   Amazon,	
   Netflix,	
   and	
   iTunes	
  

prove	
   that	
   the	
   companies	
   providing	
   customers	
   with	
   the	
   most	
   choices	
   and	
   the	
   most	
  

effective	
  ways	
  to	
  navigate	
  them	
  can	
  earn	
  as	
  much	
  as	
  40%	
  of	
  their	
  revenue	
  from	
  products	
  

along	
  “the	
  long	
  tail.”	
  


           During	
   the	
   age	
   of	
   FM	
   radio	
   and	
   record	
   stores,	
   limited	
   inventory	
   and	
   constrained	
  

choice	
   contributed	
   to	
   widespread	
   adoption	
   of	
   popularized	
   music	
   preferences.	
   	
   Retailers	
  

optimizing	
   limited	
   shelf	
   space	
   and	
   FM	
   radio	
   DJs	
   seeking	
   to	
   maximize	
   listenership	
  

reinforced	
  a	
  culture-­‐wide	
  fascination	
  with	
  top	
  charts	
  and	
  superstars.	
  	
  However,	
  as	
  digital	
  

music	
   technologies	
   continue	
   to	
   proliferate,	
   the	
   seemingly	
   unlimited	
   number	
   of	
   musical	
  

choices	
   and	
   their	
   innovative	
   recommendation	
   systems	
   are	
   shaping	
   listeners’	
   preferences	
  

and	
  consumption	
  patterns	
  in	
  new	
  ways.	
  	
  Although	
  the	
  possible	
  ramifications	
  of	
  unlimited	
  

choice	
   and	
   user	
   profiling	
   are	
   numerous,	
   I	
   expect	
   these	
   technologies	
   to	
   both	
   widen	
   and	
  

deepen	
   the	
   music	
   preferences	
   of	
   their	
   users.	
   	
   In	
   other	
   words,	
   the	
   unique	
   features	
   of	
   new	
  

music	
  services	
  will	
  not	
  only	
  enable	
  the	
  tracking	
  of	
  the	
  Long	
  Tail,	
  but	
  also	
  shift	
  demand	
  to	
  

make	
  it	
  even	
  longer.	
  	
  The	
  purpose	
  of	
  this	
  study	
  is	
  two-­‐fold:	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  most	
  salient	
  

factors	
   that	
   shape	
   listeners’	
   music	
   preferences	
   and	
   choice	
   of	
   music	
   service,	
   and	
   to	
   enhance	
  

our	
  understanding	
  of	
  new	
  music	
  technologies’	
  impact	
  on	
  users.	
  


           Throughout	
   history,	
   from	
   Mary	
   Shelley’s	
   Frankenstein	
   to	
   George	
   Orwell’s	
   Nineteen	
  

Eighty-­Four,	
  the	
  idea	
  of	
  technological	
  determinism	
  has	
  caused	
  society	
  to	
  irrationally	
  view	
  

and	
   fear	
   technology	
   as	
   an	
   autonomous	
   juggernaut,	
   sometimes	
   causing	
   the	
   restriction	
   of	
  

tools	
   that	
   extend	
   humanity’s	
   potential	
   (McGinn).	
   	
   A	
   technological	
   determinist	
   might	
   use	
  

phrases	
   like	
   identity	
   theft,	
   violation	
   of	
   privacy,	
   and	
   entertainment	
   piracy	
   to	
   describe	
   the	
  


	
                                                                   	
                                                                  5	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                        Penrose	
  


Internet’s	
  relationship	
  with	
  its	
  users.	
  In	
  his	
  book	
  Remix,	
  Lessig	
  argues	
  that	
  the	
  digitization	
  

of	
   culture	
   and	
   the	
   economy	
   is	
   a	
   positive	
   change	
   to	
   be	
   embraced	
   and	
   understood,	
   rather	
  

than	
   restricted	
   and	
   criminalized.	
   He	
   protests	
   against	
   outdated	
   copyright	
   laws	
   now	
  

criminalizing	
  creative	
  actions,	
  calling	
  for	
  copyright	
  law	
  reform	
  to	
  realize	
  the	
  full	
  potential	
  

of	
   the	
   new	
   hybrid	
   of	
   commercial	
   and	
   sharing	
   economies.	
   After	
   detailing	
   both	
   economies	
  

individually,	
  he	
  argues	
  that	
  the	
  Internet’s	
  new	
  hybrid	
  economy	
  is	
  a	
  fusion	
  of	
  both	
  voluntary	
  

collaboration	
   and	
   traditional	
   commerce.	
   	
   He	
   provides	
   several	
   examples	
   of	
   companies	
   —	
  

including	
  Netflix,	
  Amazon,	
  Google,	
  YouTube,	
  and	
  Second	
  Life	
  —	
  and	
  mechanisms,	
  such	
  as	
  

user	
   reviews	
   and	
   recommendations,	
   crowdsourcing,	
   and	
   Anderson’s	
   Long	
   Tail	
   principle,	
  

that	
   support	
   his	
   argument	
   that	
   the	
   new	
   hybrid	
   economy	
   is	
   “a	
   model	
   of	
   success,	
   not	
   a	
  

compromise	
   of	
   profit.”	
   McGinn	
   also	
   testifies	
   to	
   the	
   vital	
   importance	
   of	
   resisting	
  

technological	
   determinism,	
   acknowledging	
   technology	
   and	
   society	
   as	
   interdependent	
   and	
  

co-­‐evolutionary,	
   and	
   monitoring	
   the	
   unique	
   powers	
   associated	
   with	
   each.	
   	
   These	
   ideas	
  

guided	
   this	
   study	
   throughout	
   the	
   various	
   stages	
   of	
   literature	
   review,	
   data	
   collection,	
   and	
  

analysis.	
  


           Contrary	
   to	
   technological	
   deterministic	
   perspectives,	
   more	
   and	
   more	
   IT-­‐based	
  

media	
  channels	
  and	
  corporations	
  are	
  capitalizing	
  on	
  their	
  control	
  over	
  technology	
  to	
  shape	
  

user	
   interactions	
   online.	
   	
   Amazon’s	
   book	
   recommendation	
   feature	
   is	
   one	
   example	
   of	
   a	
  

navigational	
   tool	
   intended	
   to	
   both	
   maximize	
   profit	
   and	
   cater	
   to	
   users’	
   preferences.	
   	
   As	
  

Anderson	
  points	
  out	
  in	
  the	
  first	
  chapter	
  of	
  The	
  Long	
  Tail,	
  Amazon’s	
  pairing	
  of	
  the	
  best	
  seller	
  

Into	
   Thin	
   Air	
   with	
   the	
   lesser-­‐known	
   Touching	
   the	
   Void	
   via	
   its	
   recommendation	
   feature	
  

created	
   a	
   powerful	
   positive	
   feedback	
   loop	
   of	
   both	
   interest	
   and	
   revenue.	
   By	
   categorizing	
  

media	
   based	
   on	
   similarity,	
   rather	
   than	
   —	
   or	
   in	
   addition	
   to	
   —	
   listing	
   them	
   by	
   popularity,	
  
	
                                                                   	
                                                                  6	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                       Penrose	
  


these	
   institutions	
   and	
   corporations	
   better	
   serve	
   both	
   the	
   user	
   and	
   the	
   long	
   tail	
   of	
   the	
  

market.	
  


           In	
   his	
   book	
   The	
   Wisdom	
   of	
   the	
   Crowds,	
   author	
   James	
   Surowiecki	
   explores	
   the	
   notion	
  

that	
  a	
  large	
  group	
  of	
  people	
  is	
  more	
  innovative	
  and	
  better	
  at	
  problem	
  solving	
  than	
  a	
  small	
  

elite	
   creative	
   team,	
   concluding	
   that	
   this	
   technique	
   of	
   “crowdsourcing”	
   has	
   enormous	
  

potential	
   and	
   has	
   already	
   begun	
   to	
   shape	
   online	
   interaction	
   (Surowiecki).	
   	
   Taking	
  

Surowiecki’s	
   advice,	
   the	
   popular	
   online	
   DVD	
   rental	
   service	
   Netflix	
   conducted	
   a	
   nearly	
  

three-­‐year-­‐long	
   public	
   competition	
   for	
   an	
   improved	
   Netflix	
   recommendation	
   algorithm,	
  

making	
   Netflix	
   usage	
   data	
   freely	
   available	
   in	
   an	
   effort	
   “to	
   substantially	
   improve	
   the	
  

accuracy	
   of	
   predictions	
   about	
   how	
   much	
   someone	
   is	
   going	
   to	
   enjoy	
   a	
   movie	
   based	
   on	
   their	
  

movie	
   preferences”	
   (http://www.netflixprize.com).	
   The	
   winning	
   team’s	
   algorithm	
   is	
   yet	
  

another	
   user-­‐centered	
   tool	
   used	
   to	
   connect	
   niche	
   market	
   products	
   and	
   media	
   to	
   their	
  

customers,	
  directly	
  facilitating	
  the	
  expansion	
  of	
  the	
  long	
  tail.	
  


Studying	
  Music	
  Preference	
  


	
         Many	
   researchers	
   have	
   conducted	
   studies	
   revealing	
   correlations	
   between	
  

demographical	
   information,	
   such	
   as	
   age,	
   gender	
   and	
   education,	
   and	
   music	
   preferences.	
  	
  

LeBlanc	
   et	
   al.	
   created	
   an	
   overall	
   music	
   preference	
   index	
   to	
   measure	
   subjects’	
   total	
  

preferences	
   across	
   genres	
   and	
   compared	
   responses	
   between	
   different	
   age	
   groups.	
   	
   After	
  

surveying	
   2,262	
   respondents,	
   the	
   researchers	
   found	
   that	
   the	
   music	
   preference	
   index	
  

declined	
  in	
  elementary	
  students,	
  rose	
  from	
  high	
  school	
  to	
  college,	
  and	
  declined	
  after	
  college	
  

(LeBlanc	
   et	
   al.,	
   1996).	
   	
   While	
   these	
   findings	
   may	
   not	
   provide	
   a	
   means	
   to	
   improve	
   music	
  

recommendation	
   algorithms,	
   statistically	
   significant	
   correlations	
   between	
   age	
   and	
  

	
                                                                   	
                                                                 7	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                           Penrose	
  


preferences	
   for	
   specific	
   songs,	
   artists,	
   and	
   genres	
   would	
   certainly	
   help	
   predict	
   listener	
  

reactions.	
   	
   Although	
   surveys	
   may	
   be	
   able	
   to	
   determine	
   linkages	
   between	
   age	
   and	
   genre	
  

preferences	
   (as	
   this	
   study	
   will	
   show),	
   this	
   method	
   is	
   obviously	
   not	
   feasible	
   for	
   collecting	
  

larger	
  data	
  sets	
  regarding	
  artist	
  or	
  song	
  preference.	
  	
  However,	
  this	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  many	
  examples	
  

of	
   how	
   digital	
   media’s	
   growing	
   trend	
   of	
   “thumb”	
   or	
   “like”	
   feedback	
   could	
   be	
   utilized	
   by	
  

companies	
  like	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora,	
  and	
  YouTube.	
  	
  


           While	
   most	
   music	
   recommendation	
   sites	
   focus	
   on	
   users’	
   preferences	
   and	
   musical	
  

similarities	
   between	
   songs,	
   several	
   Taiwanese	
   researchers	
   (Suh-­‐Yin	
   Lee	
   et	
   al.,	
   2009)	
  

investigated	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  emotion-­‐based	
  music	
  discovery	
  within	
  the	
  context	
  of	
  motion	
  picture	
  

scores.	
   	
   Constructing	
   an	
   original	
   algorithm	
   called	
   the	
   Music	
   Affinity	
   Graph-­‐Plus,	
   Suh-­‐Yin	
  

Lee	
  et	
  al.	
  achieved	
  an	
  impressive	
  85%	
  accuracy	
  in	
  matching	
  queried	
  emotions	
  with	
  music	
  

of	
  the	
  same	
  emotions.	
  While	
  these	
  results	
  and	
  the	
  growth	
  of	
  music	
  recommendation	
  sites	
  

like	
  Stereomood	
  and	
  Music	
  for	
  Emotion	
  prove	
  the	
  potential	
  of	
  emotion-­‐based	
  song	
  sorting	
  

and	
   recommendation,	
   such	
   an	
   approach	
   has	
   yet	
   to	
   draw	
   a	
   fraction	
   of	
   the	
   audience	
   of	
  

iTunes,	
   Pandora	
   or	
   YouTube.	
   	
   In	
   acknowledgement	
   of	
   its	
   potential,	
   this	
   study	
   will	
   also	
  

survey	
  respondents	
  on	
  their	
  level	
  of	
  demand	
  for	
  emotion-­‐based	
  music	
  recommendation.	
  


           In	
  2009,	
  Gaffney	
  and	
  Rafferty	
  conducted	
  a	
  study	
  investigating	
  users’	
  knowledge	
  and	
  

use	
  of	
  social	
  networking	
  sites	
  and	
  folksonomies	
  (user-­‐generated	
  taxonomies),	
  focusing	
  on	
  

the	
   potential	
   of	
   social	
   tagging	
   to	
   aid	
   in	
   the	
   discovery	
   of	
   independent	
   music.	
   	
   Examining	
   the	
  

four	
   music	
   discovery	
   sites	
   MySpace,	
   Lastfm,	
   Pandora	
   and	
   Allmusic	
   through	
   user	
   surveys	
  

and	
  interviews,	
  they	
  found	
  that	
  although	
  respondents	
  use	
  social	
  networking	
  sites	
  for	
  music	
  

discovery,	
   they	
   are	
   generally	
   unaware	
   of	
   folksonomic	
   approaches	
   to	
   music	
   discovery.	
  


	
                                                                     	
                                                                   8	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                     Penrose	
  


Furthermore,	
  those	
  who	
  do	
  use	
  and	
  contribute	
  to	
  folksonomies	
  are	
  mostly	
  self-­‐serving	
  in	
  

their	
   motives	
   (Gaffney	
   and	
   Rafferty,	
   2009).	
   	
   While	
   Gaffney	
   and	
   Rafferty	
   state	
   that	
   their	
  

study	
  rests	
  upon	
  the	
  assumption	
  that	
  music	
  recommendation	
  and	
  social	
  networking	
  sites	
  

push	
  users	
  and	
  revenue	
  toward	
  the	
  Long	
  Tail,	
  they	
  make	
  no	
  attempt	
  to	
  quantify	
  the	
  impact	
  

of	
  any	
  particular	
  site	
  on	
  the	
  time	
  or	
  money	
  users	
  spend	
  on	
  Long	
  Tail	
  songs.	
  	
  Additionally,	
  

the	
  landscape	
  of	
  music	
  discovery	
  sites	
  has	
  changed	
  dramatically	
  since	
  they	
  conducted	
  the	
  

study,	
  especially	
  in	
  the	
  case	
  of	
  Pandora’s	
  rapid	
  growth.	
  


           Unfortunately,	
   the	
   vast	
   majority	
   of	
   studies	
   involving	
   music	
   preferences	
   use	
   a	
  

nomothetic	
  approach	
  to	
  choose	
  one	
  or	
  two	
  particular	
  factors	
  to	
  test,	
  whether	
  for	
  simplicity	
  

or	
  convenience.	
  	
  Christenson	
  and	
  Peterson	
  built	
  upon	
  earlier	
  studies	
  of	
  gender	
  and	
  music	
  

genre	
   preferences	
   by	
   including	
   many	
   “metagenres”	
   previously	
   disregarded	
   by	
   social	
  

scientists.	
   	
   Consistent	
   with	
   similar	
   studies,	
   they	
   found	
   convincing	
   evidence	
   that	
   gender	
  

predisposes	
   people	
   to	
   certain	
   music	
   preferences;	
   for	
   example,	
   that	
   females	
   gravitate	
  

toward	
   popular	
   music	
   and	
   males	
   gravitate	
   away	
   from	
   it.	
   	
   While	
   this	
   study	
   contributes	
   a	
  

piece	
   of	
   the	
   music	
   preference-­‐mapping	
   puzzle,	
   Christenson	
   and	
   Peterson	
   admit,	
   “the	
  

underlying	
   structure	
   of	
   music	
   preference	
   cannot	
   be	
   accounted	
   for	
   by	
   reference	
   to	
   two	
   or	
  

three	
  factors,	
  but	
  is	
  multivariate”	
  (Christenson	
  et	
  al,	
  1988).	
  	
  At	
  this	
  point,	
  the	
  need	
  for	
  an	
  

idiographic	
  approach	
  to	
  music	
  preferences	
  is	
  clear.	
  


           This	
   study	
   is	
   partially	
   driven	
   by	
   the	
   lack	
   of	
   a	
   multivariate	
   or	
   idiographic	
   study	
  

comparing	
   the	
   relative	
   impacts	
   of	
   age,	
   emotion,	
   social	
   network,	
   choice	
   of	
   digital	
   music	
  

service,	
   and	
   more	
   factors,	
   on	
   music	
   preference.	
   iTunes,	
   Pandora	
   and	
   YouTube	
   certainly	
  

have	
   a	
   wealth	
   of	
   data	
   on	
   their	
   services’	
   use	
   and	
   users,	
   but	
   data	
   points	
   like	
   relative	
  


	
                                                                  	
                                                                9	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                        Penrose	
  


preference	
   between	
   services,	
   musical	
   education	
   and	
   experience	
   of	
   users,	
   and	
   listening	
  

environment	
  are	
  often	
  ignored.	
  Not	
  only	
  do	
  I	
  find	
  this	
  information	
  intriguing,	
  I	
  suspect	
  it	
  

could	
   prove	
   incredibly	
   relevant	
   to	
   both	
   music	
   marketing	
   strategies	
   and	
   music	
  

recommendation	
   technology.	
   In	
   addition	
   to	
   enabling	
   the	
   examination	
   of	
   underlying	
  

patterns	
   between	
   these	
   variables,	
   the	
   collected	
   surveys	
   provide	
   a	
   basis	
   for	
   predicting	
  

economic	
   shifts	
   in	
   the	
   music	
   industry.	
   	
   It	
   is	
   expected	
   that	
   by	
   aligning	
   recommendations	
  

with	
   each	
   unique	
   users’	
   profile	
   rather	
   than	
   the	
   most	
   popular	
   songs,	
   new	
   music	
  

technologies	
  like	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora,	
  and	
  YouTube	
  both	
  please	
  users	
  and	
  support	
  more	
  artists	
  

further	
   down	
   the	
   Long	
   Tail.	
   Furthermore,	
   the	
   findings	
   presented	
   in	
   this	
   study	
   reveal	
  

significant	
   relationships	
   between	
   variables	
   that	
   have	
   thus	
   far	
   been	
   excluded	
   from	
   music	
  

recommendation	
  algorithms.	
  


                                                                           	
  


                                                                    Methods	
  


Sampling	
  


           Given	
  my	
  interest	
  in	
  the	
  college	
  student	
  demographic	
  and	
  my	
  immediate	
  network	
  of	
  

friends	
   and	
   family,	
   I	
   focused	
   my	
   recruiting	
   efforts	
   on	
   three	
   different	
   colleges:	
   Stanford	
  

University,	
   Glendale	
   Community	
   College	
   (GCC),	
   and	
   Arizona	
   State	
   University	
   (ASU).	
  

Stanford	
  was	
  the	
  first	
  and	
  most	
  convenient	
  sampling	
  frame	
  for	
  me	
  as	
  a	
  Stanford	
  undergrad,	
  

providing	
   38	
   respondents.	
   My	
   parents,	
   both	
   professors	
   at	
   Glendale	
   Community	
   College,	
  

invited	
  their	
  students	
  to	
  take	
  the	
  survey	
  and	
  added	
  71	
  students	
  to	
  the	
  sample.	
  	
  Last,	
  I	
  sent	
  a	
  

brief	
   Facebook	
   message	
   to	
   recruit	
   ASU	
   students	
   from	
   my	
   high	
   school	
   network.	
   Response	
  

and	
   completion	
   rates	
   were	
   lowest	
   at	
   ASU,	
   with	
   9	
   students	
   completing	
   the	
   survey.	
   The	
  
	
                                                            	
                                                          10	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                            Penrose	
  


shortage	
   of	
   both	
   time	
   and	
   funded	
   incentives	
   ruled	
   out	
   a	
   random	
   sampling	
   of	
   college	
  

students,	
   but	
   I	
   minimized	
   potential	
   biases	
   by	
   recruiting	
   from	
   several	
   different	
   schools.	
  

While	
  a	
  realistic	
  distribution	
  between	
  schools	
  would	
  have	
  been	
  preferable,	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  

college	
  students	
  who	
  volunteered	
  for	
  my	
  unpaid,	
  20-­‐minute	
  survey	
  was	
  significantly	
  higher	
  

than	
  I	
  anticipated.	
  	
  


Concepts	
  


            The	
  first	
  page	
  of	
  the	
  survey	
  addressed	
  respondents’	
  demographics,	
  including	
  age,	
  

gender,	
  hometown,	
  current	
  school,	
  and	
  competence	
  with	
  computers.	
  	
  Free	
  response,	
  or	
  

open-­‐ended,	
  answer	
  formats	
  will	
  be	
  used	
  for	
  age,	
  hometown,	
  and	
  current	
  school,	
  while	
  

gender	
  and	
  computer	
  competence	
  will	
  use	
  closed-­‐ended	
  questions.	
  	
  The	
  question	
  “Please	
  

categorize	
  your	
  competence	
  using	
  computers”	
  will	
  include	
  the	
  options	
  “Advanced”,	
  	
  

“Average”,	
  “Basic”,	
  and	
  “NoneVery	
  Little.”	
  These	
  items	
  were	
  carefully	
  chosen	
  for	
  clarity	
  

and	
  appropriateness,	
  to	
  ensure	
  optimal	
  accuracy.	
  The	
  demographic	
  variables	
  were	
  chosen	
  

for	
  potential	
  to	
  influence	
  both	
  music	
  preference	
  and	
  music	
  technology	
  preference.	
  


	
          The	
  second	
  page	
  of	
  the	
  questionnaire	
  features	
  units	
  of	
  analysis	
  addressing	
  

respondents’	
  musical	
  experience,	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  gauge	
  how	
  each	
  influences	
  music	
  preference.	
  	
  

Each	
  concept	
  will	
  contribute	
  to	
  an	
  index	
  summarizing	
  overall	
  musical	
  experience,	
  assigning	
  

quantitative	
  values	
  to	
  qualitative	
  responses	
  where	
  appropriate.	
  	
  First,	
  subjects	
  were	
  asked	
  

the	
  open-­‐ended	
  question	
  “Approximately	
  how	
  many	
  hours	
  per	
  week	
  do	
  you	
  spend	
  listening	
  

to	
  music?”	
  Next,	
  respondents	
  selected	
  the	
  option,	
  “Which	
  best	
  describes	
  the	
  frequency	
  of	
  

your	
  online	
  music	
  listening?”	
  from	
  the	
  list:	
  “Rarely”,	
  “Sometimes”,	
  “Often”,	
  and	
  “All	
  the	
  

Time.”	
  Then,	
  using	
  a	
  check-­‐all	
  question	
  format,	
  respondents	
  indicated	
  the	
  school	
  years	
  

	
                                                             	
                                                          11	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                   Penrose	
  


during	
  which	
  they	
  took	
  at	
  least	
  one	
  music	
  class,	
  with	
  the	
  options	
  “Elementary	
  (K-­‐8th)”,	
  

“High	
  School”,	
  “College”,	
  and	
  “None”.	
  	
  Next,	
  subjects	
  indicated	
  how	
  many	
  years	
  they	
  have	
  

taken	
  musical	
  instrument	
  lessons	
  (outside	
  of	
  school)	
  with	
  free	
  response.	
  	
  Finally,	
  the	
  

closed-­‐ended	
  question	
  “Do	
  you	
  currently	
  play	
  an	
  instrument?”	
  was	
  followed	
  by	
  the	
  

contingency	
  question	
  of	
  “How	
  many	
  years	
  have	
  you	
  played	
  an	
  instrument?”	
  	
  In	
  order	
  to	
  

maintain	
  both	
  accuracy	
  and	
  the	
  respondent’s	
  attention,	
  these	
  questions	
  and	
  question	
  

formats	
  were	
  chosen	
  based	
  on	
  their	
  clarity,	
  relevance,	
  and	
  brevity	
  for	
  each	
  unit	
  of	
  analysis.	
  	
  

Both	
  the	
  index	
  and	
  individual	
  units	
  of	
  analysis	
  will	
  be	
  used	
  in	
  determining	
  the	
  most	
  salient	
  

factors	
  in	
  music	
  preference.	
  


           The	
  next	
  page	
  of	
  the	
  survey	
  investigated	
  subjects’	
  music	
  preferences.	
  	
  For	
  the	
  

purposes	
  of	
  this	
  study,	
  music	
  preferences	
  were	
  defined	
  as	
  genres	
  that	
  an	
  individual	
  simply	
  

enjoys	
  listening	
  to.	
  	
  As	
  mentioned	
  earlier,	
  genres	
  are	
  the	
  most	
  feasible	
  unit	
  of	
  analysis	
  for	
  

music	
  preferences	
  using	
  a	
  survey,	
  given	
  the	
  large	
  numbers	
  of	
  artists	
  and	
  songs	
  in	
  existence.	
  	
  

Using	
  a	
  matrix	
  question,	
  participants	
  were	
  asked,	
  “What	
  are	
  your	
  attitudes	
  toward	
  the	
  

following	
  music	
  genres?”	
  	
  In	
  addition	
  to	
  operationalizing	
  this	
  concept	
  with	
  multiple	
  levels	
  

of	
  enjoyment	
  (dislike,	
  neutral,	
  like,	
  and	
  love),	
  the	
  list	
  of	
  genres	
  included	
  those	
  common	
  

throughout	
  all	
  three	
  music	
  services	
  in	
  question	
  (see	
  Appendix	
  for	
  full	
  survey).	
  	
  The	
  primary	
  

issue	
  carefully	
  controlled	
  in	
  this	
  question	
  was	
  the	
  respondent’s	
  understanding	
  of	
  music	
  

genres.	
  	
  For	
  this	
  reason,	
  the	
  selected	
  genres	
  were	
  pragmatically	
  selected	
  for	
  distinctness	
  

from	
  one	
  another.	
  	
  While	
  this	
  potential	
  confound	
  has	
  been	
  minimized,	
  it	
  cannot	
  be	
  fully	
  

eliminated	
  without	
  including	
  potentially	
  distracting	
  full	
  definitions	
  of	
  each	
  genre.	
  




	
                                                                 	
                                                             12	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                      Penrose	
  


           Although	
  the	
  varying	
  levels	
  of	
  preference	
  within	
  genres,	
  or	
  the	
  “depth”	
  of	
  music	
  

preference,	
  have	
  been	
  accounted	
  for	
  with	
  the	
  four	
  options	
  listed	
  on	
  this	
  genre,	
  the	
  

following	
  questions	
  utilized	
  a	
  different	
  approach	
  to	
  measure	
  the	
  same	
  concept.	
  	
  After	
  

subjects	
  indicated	
  their	
  favorite	
  genre	
  from	
  the	
  same	
  list,	
  they	
  were	
  asked,	
  “Within	
  your	
  

favorite	
  musical	
  genre,	
  approximately	
  what	
  percentage	
  of	
  artists	
  and	
  songs	
  that	
  you	
  know	
  

do	
  you	
  like?”	
  with	
  the	
  options	
  “0-­‐20%”,	
  “21-­‐40%”,	
  “41-­‐60%”,	
  “61-­‐80%”,	
  and	
  “81-­‐100%”.	
  	
  

Next,	
  the	
  questionnaire	
  asked	
  the	
  closed-­‐ended	
  question,	
  “Of	
  all	
  the	
  “top	
  40”	
  popular	
  music	
  

you’ve	
  heard,	
  you	
  like:”	
  where	
  subjects	
  chose	
  between	
  “All	
  or	
  almost	
  all”,	
  “Most”,	
  “About	
  

half”,	
  “Some”,	
  “None”,	
  and	
  “I	
  don’t	
  pay	
  attention	
  to	
  top	
  40	
  charts”.	
  	
  Finally,	
  the	
  matrix	
  

question	
  format	
  asked	
  respondents	
  about	
  the	
  importance	
  of	
  the	
  following	
  attributes	
  in	
  

determining	
  whether	
  or	
  not	
  they	
  like	
  a	
  song.	
  	
  These	
  attributes	
  included	
  “familiarity”,	
  

“popularity”,	
  “fits	
  my	
  mood”,	
  “artistic	
  talent”,	
  “lyrics”,	
  and	
  “friends’	
  preferences”,	
  and	
  were	
  

classified	
  as	
  either	
  “Not	
  important”,	
  “Somewhat	
  important”,	
  “Very	
  important”,	
  and	
  

“Extremely	
  important”.	
  	
  Again,	
  these	
  closed-­‐ended	
  questions	
  ensured	
  that	
  respondents	
  

measure	
  their	
  perspectives	
  by	
  the	
  same	
  standards,	
  which	
  was	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  primary	
  reasons	
  

for	
  using	
  the	
  online	
  survey	
  approach.	
  


           The	
  next	
  page	
  of	
  the	
  survey	
  examined	
  the	
  respondent’s	
  music	
  listening	
  

environment.	
  	
  Using	
  the	
  matrix	
  question	
  format,	
  the	
  respondents	
  indicated	
  how	
  often	
  they	
  

listen	
  to	
  music	
  in	
  each	
  of	
  the	
  following	
  environments	
  and	
  activities,	
  including	
  “At	
  home”,	
  

“In	
  the	
  car”,	
  “At	
  work”,	
  “By	
  yourself”,	
  “With	
  a	
  few	
  friends”,	
  “At	
  a	
  party”,	
  “While	
  studying”,	
  

and	
  “While	
  sleeping”.	
  	
  Potential	
  responses	
  utilized	
  the	
  Thurstone	
  scale,	
  and	
  included	
  

“Never”,	
  “Rarely”,	
  “Sometimes”,	
  “Often”,	
  and	
  “Always”.	
  	
  While	
  these	
  activities	
  and	
  locations	
  

may	
  have	
  overlapped	
  somewhat,	
  each	
  item	
  was	
  chosen	
  for	
  relevance	
  and	
  potential	
  to	
  
	
                                                                  	
                                                               13	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                          Penrose	
  


influence	
  music	
  preferences.	
  	
  Perhaps	
  the	
  most	
  pivotal	
  of	
  the	
  entire	
  survey,	
  the	
  next	
  matrix	
  

question	
  asked	
  respondents	
  to	
  rank	
  their	
  “Favorite”,	
  “2nd	
  Favorite”,	
  and	
  “3rd	
  Favorite”	
  

music	
  services	
  between	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora,	
  and	
  YouTube;	
  respondents	
  could	
  also	
  select	
  a	
  

fourth	
  option,	
  “Never	
  use	
  it”.	
  	
  These	
  music	
  services	
  were	
  selected	
  because	
  they	
  are	
  widely	
  

used,	
  legal	
  alternatives	
  to	
  music	
  piracy	
  and	
  because	
  I	
  wanted	
  to	
  understand	
  how	
  they	
  are	
  

reshaping	
  the	
  music	
  industry	
  from	
  individual	
  users’	
  perspectives.	
  	
  


           The	
  following	
  three	
  pages	
  contained	
  contingency	
  questions	
  depending	
  on	
  whether	
  

respondents	
  use	
  the	
  services	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora,	
  and	
  YouTube.	
  	
  Using	
  similarly	
  structured	
  

matrix	
  questions,	
  these	
  pages	
  sought	
  to	
  ascertain	
  the	
  perceived	
  impact	
  of	
  each	
  service	
  on	
  

users’	
  music	
  preferences	
  and	
  spending	
  habits	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  Likert	
  scale.	
  	
  For	
  example,	
  

respondents	
  were	
  asked	
  to	
  indicate	
  various	
  levels	
  of	
  agreement/disagreement	
  with	
  the	
  

statements	
  “As	
  a	
  result	
  of	
  using	
  Pandora,”	
  	
  “I	
  listen	
  to	
  music	
  more	
  often”,	
  “I	
  listen	
  to	
  a	
  wider	
  

range	
  of	
  genres”,	
  “I	
  listen	
  to	
  more	
  music	
  within	
  the	
  genres	
  I	
  like”,	
  “I	
  share	
  music	
  with	
  my	
  

friends	
  more”,	
  “I	
  buy	
  more	
  music”,	
  “I	
  buy	
  different	
  music	
  than	
  I	
  would	
  have	
  otherwise”,	
  “I	
  

have	
  bought	
  concert	
  tickets	
  that	
  I	
  wouldn’t	
  have	
  otherwise”,	
  and	
  finally	
  “music	
  plays	
  a	
  

bigger	
  role	
  in	
  my	
  life.”	
  	
  Because	
  these	
  questions	
  directly	
  apply	
  to	
  the	
  hypothesis	
  of	
  this	
  

study,	
  they	
  did	
  not	
  contain	
  negative	
  answers	
  or	
  answers	
  that	
  might	
  bias	
  results,	
  and	
  there	
  

were	
  several	
  different	
  units	
  or	
  elements	
  intending	
  to	
  measure	
  the	
  same	
  concept.	
  	
  The	
  final	
  

question	
  on	
  each	
  page	
  asked	
  respondents	
  to	
  choose	
  their	
  favorite	
  feature	
  of	
  each	
  service,	
  

choosing	
  between	
  “customizability/personalization”,	
  “its	
  interface”,	
  “its	
  wide	
  selection	
  of	
  

music”,	
  “playlisting	
  and	
  song	
  recommendation”,	
  and	
  “Other:	
  Please	
  Specify”.	
  	
  The	
  Likert	
  

scale	
  was	
  chosen	
  both	
  for	
  its	
  speed	
  and	
  appropriateness	
  in	
  this	
  case,	
  and	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  similar	
  


	
                                                                    	
                                                                 14	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                   Penrose	
  


questions	
  on	
  the	
  pages	
  for	
  all	
  three	
  music	
  technologies	
  will	
  ensure	
  a	
  common	
  standard	
  of	
  

measurement	
  and	
  enable	
  a	
  closer	
  comparison	
  of	
  their	
  relative	
  impacts	
  on	
  users.	
  	
  


           Additional	
   measures	
   taken	
   to	
   ensure	
   accuracy	
   of	
   questionnaire	
   responses	
   include	
  

carefully	
   ordering	
   the	
   questions	
   in	
   ascending	
   order	
   of	
   difficulty,	
   eliminating	
   double-­‐

barreled	
  questions,	
  providing	
  questionnaire	
  instructions,	
  and	
  pretesting	
  the	
  questionnaire	
  

on	
   a	
   number	
   of	
   classmates.	
   	
   Wherever	
   possible,	
   questions	
   with	
   similar	
   potential	
   responses	
  

were	
   grouped	
   as	
   matrix	
   questions	
   to	
   quicken	
   response	
   times	
   and	
   maintain	
   a	
   higher	
  

response	
  rate.	
  	
  Furthermore,	
  to	
  improve	
  the	
  relevance	
  of	
  the	
  questionnaire,	
  the	
  questions	
  

that	
  may	
  not	
  apply	
  to	
  all	
  respondents	
  have	
  been	
  formatted	
  as	
  contingency	
  questions.	
  


Coding	
  and	
  Data	
  Analysis	
  


           In	
  order	
  to	
  analyze	
  the	
  results	
  of	
  the	
  online	
  questionnaire,	
  I	
  downloaded	
  the	
  CSV	
  file	
  

of	
  raw	
  data	
  for	
  138	
  respondents	
  from	
  www.rationalsurvey.com	
  and	
  imported	
  it	
  into	
  SPSS	
  

Statistics,	
   which	
   I	
   purchased	
   through	
   Stanford	
   Software	
   Licensing.	
   Preparing	
   the	
   survey	
  

data	
  for	
  analysis	
  involved	
  several	
  steps,	
  the	
  first	
  of	
  which	
  was	
  removing	
  the	
  incomplete	
  and	
  

age-­‐inappropriate	
  cases.	
  After	
  deleting	
  the	
  few	
  cases	
  of	
  respondents	
  who	
  were	
  no	
  longer	
  in	
  

college	
   or	
   hadn’t	
   completed	
   the	
   survey,	
   I	
   ended	
   up	
   with	
   125	
   total	
   respondents.	
   Next,	
   I	
  

defined	
   each	
   of	
   the	
   variable	
   properties	
   by	
   classifying	
   them	
   as	
   either	
   ordinal,	
   nominal,	
   or	
  

scale.	
  	
  I	
  then	
  used	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  coding	
  techniques	
  to	
  enable	
  tests	
  of	
  correlation,	
  assigning	
  

numeric	
   values	
   to	
   all	
   textual	
   responses.	
   For	
   example,	
   “Never”	
   =	
   1,	
   “Rarely”	
   =	
   2,	
  

“Sometimes”	
  =	
  3,	
  and	
  so	
  on.	
  Next,	
  I	
  assigned	
   corresponding	
   labels	
   to	
   the	
   numeric	
   values	
   to	
  

facilitate	
  my	
  interpretation	
  of	
  statistical	
  procedures.	
  Due	
  to	
  the	
  relatively	
  large	
  number	
  of	
  



	
                                                                 	
                                                            15	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                     Penrose	
  


questions,	
  73	
  in	
  total,	
  the	
  various	
  strategies	
  used	
  to	
  assign	
  numeric	
  values	
  will	
  be	
  discussed	
  

in	
  tandem	
  with	
  the	
  results	
  and	
  analysis	
  of	
  each	
  variable.	
  


Respondents	
  

	
         Due	
   to	
   the	
   financial	
   and	
   temporal	
   constraints	
   of	
   this	
   study,	
   the	
   online	
   survey	
   was	
  

distributed	
   to	
   a	
   convenient	
   sample.	
   Of	
   the	
   125	
   college	
   students	
   who	
   completed	
   the	
   survey,	
  

66	
   (53%)	
   were	
   male	
   and	
   59	
   were	
   female.	
   Since	
   I	
   was	
   targeting	
   the	
   college	
   student	
  

demographic,	
   respondents	
   had	
   an	
   average	
   age	
   of	
   21.43	
   with	
   a	
   standard	
   deviation	
   of	
   4.1.	
   In	
  

response	
   to	
   the	
   third	
   question	
   of	
   hometown,	
   63	
   respondents	
   (50%)	
   indicated	
   they	
   were	
  

from	
   Arizona,	
   40	
   of	
   which	
   were	
   from	
   Phoenix.	
   Another	
   26	
   respondents	
   (21%)	
   hail	
   from	
  

various	
  cities	
  in	
  California,	
  and	
  the	
  remaining	
  subjects’	
  hometowns	
  included	
  18	
  states	
  and	
  

4	
   locations	
   outside	
   the	
   United	
   States.	
   Although	
   the	
   survey’s	
   findings	
   may	
   have	
   a	
   slightly	
  

southwest/west	
   coast	
   bias,	
   I	
   found	
   this	
   geographical	
   spread	
   acceptable	
   given	
   the	
   study’s	
  

constraints.	
  	
  


	
  
                                                                    Results	
  


	
         While	
  the	
  online	
  questionnaire	
  consisted	
  of	
  five	
  sections,	
  analysis	
  of	
  results	
  was	
  

divided	
  into	
  three	
  sections:	
  music	
  preference	
  and	
  contributing	
  factors,	
  choice	
  of	
  music	
  

technology	
  and	
  contributing	
  factors,	
  and	
  impacts	
  of	
  each	
  music	
  technology	
  on	
  preference	
  

and	
  spending.	
  Each	
  of	
  the	
  three	
  sections	
  contains	
  several	
  different	
  variables	
  that	
  measure	
  

similar	
  ideas	
  to	
  reinforce	
  findings.	
  Since	
  nearly	
  all	
  variables	
  were	
  coded	
  into	
  numeric	
  

values	
  and	
  most	
  of	
  these	
  were	
  ordinal,	
  a	
  simple	
  function	
  in	
  SPSS	
  created	
  a	
  spreadsheet	
  of	
  

all	
  correlations	
  between	
  variables	
  and	
  designated	
  those	
  of	
  significance	
  at	
  the	
  .05	
  and	
  the	
  

	
                                                                  	
                                                              16	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                         Penrose	
  


.01	
  levels.	
  Because	
  the	
  survey	
  was	
  distributed	
  to	
  a	
  convenient	
  sample,	
  statistically	
  

significant	
  correlations	
  cannot	
  be	
  generalized	
  to	
  larger	
  populations.	
  However,	
  these	
  

findings	
  may	
  be	
  used	
  to	
  speculate	
  about	
  how	
  college	
  students	
  consume	
  music	
  online	
  and	
  

how	
  technology	
  influences	
  their	
  preferences.	
  Due	
  to	
  the	
  length	
  and	
  comprehensiveness	
  of	
  

the	
  survey,	
  the	
  three	
  results	
  sections	
  include	
  only	
  the	
  most	
  significant	
  and/or	
  surprising	
  

results.	
  	
  

	
  


Music	
  Preference	
  and	
  Determining	
  Factors	
  


Song	
  Preference	
  


	
           Perhaps	
  the	
  most	
  direct	
  question	
  addressing	
  the	
  factors	
  affecting	
  music	
  preference,	
  

question	
  16	
  asked	
  respondents	
  to	
  indicate	
  the	
  importance	
  of	
  six	
  attributes	
  in	
  determining	
  

whether	
   or	
   not	
   they	
   like	
   a	
   particular	
   song.	
   In	
   the	
   interest	
   of	
   saving	
   respondents’	
   time,	
   I	
  

selected	
   attributes	
   that	
   were	
   highly	
   likely	
   candidates	
   of	
   influence.	
   Based	
   on	
   my	
   experience	
  

with	
  music	
  and	
  friends’	
  preferences,	
  I	
  expected	
  popularity	
  and	
  friends’	
  preferences	
  to	
  rank	
  

the	
  highest.	
  After	
  all,	
  it	
  seems	
  like	
  the	
  two	
  most	
  persuasive	
  reasons	
  to	
  check	
  out	
  a	
  new	
  song	
  

are	
  that	
  friends	
  love	
  it	
  or	
  everybody	
  else	
  does.	
  I	
  also	
  speculated	
  that	
  lyrics	
  would	
  receive	
  

polarized	
   ratings	
   of	
   importance,	
   and	
   that	
   “fitting	
   the	
   mood”	
   would	
   rank	
   as	
   more	
   important	
  

than	
   most	
   of	
   the	
   other	
   attributes.	
   In	
   hindsight,	
   the	
   attribute	
   “artistic	
   talent”	
   should	
   have	
  

either	
   been	
   reworded	
   as	
   “musicianship”	
   or	
   juxtaposed	
   with	
   “producer’s	
   talent”;	
   as	
   it	
  

stands,	
  it	
  seems	
  hard	
  to	
  believe	
  many	
  respondents	
  would	
  indicate	
  that	
  they	
  don’t	
  care	
  if	
  the	
  

artist	
  is	
  talented.	
  



	
                                                                    	
                                                                 17	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                   Penrose	
  


	
         The	
   results	
   for	
   these	
   six	
   attributes	
   were	
   fairly	
   surprising,	
   and	
   have	
   tremendous	
  

implications	
   for	
   the	
   improvement	
   of	
   music	
   recommendation.	
   First,	
   my	
   predictions	
   about	
  

popularity	
   and	
   friends’	
   preferences	
   were	
   almost	
   completely	
   wrong;	
   respondents	
   rated	
  

both	
   lowest,	
   between	
   “somewhat	
   important”	
   and	
   “not	
   important”,	
   on	
   average.	
  

Furthermore,	
   average	
   responses	
   for	
   familiarity	
   were	
   positioned	
   just	
   above	
   “somewhat	
  

important”,	
   illustrating	
   users’	
   comfort	
   with	
   music	
   exploration.	
   Next,	
   lyrics	
   ranked	
   third	
  

with	
  an	
  average	
  response	
  just	
  above	
  “very	
  important”,	
  in	
  contrast	
  with	
  my	
  expectation	
  that	
  

some	
   respondents	
   preferring	
   instrumental	
   music	
   or	
   songs	
   by	
   Justin	
   Bieber	
   would	
   consider	
  

lyrics	
   of	
   minimal	
   importance.	
   Interestingly	
   enough,	
   importance	
   of	
   lyrics	
   was	
   negatively	
  

correlated	
  with	
  preferences	
  for	
  electronic	
  music	
  and	
  positively	
  correlated	
  with	
  R&B/Soul,	
  

both	
  of	
  which	
  make	
  sense.	
  Although	
  I	
  guessed	
  “fitting	
  the	
  mood”	
  and	
  “artistic	
  talent”	
  would	
  

rank	
   fairly	
   high,	
   I	
   didn’t	
   expect	
   them	
   to	
   rank	
   highest	
   overall	
   with	
   an	
   average	
   response	
  

between	
   “very	
   important”	
   and	
   “extremely	
   important.”	
   While	
   these	
   findings	
   don’t	
   prescribe	
  

an	
   ideal	
   way	
   to	
   incorporate	
   each	
   attribute	
   into	
   song	
   recommendations,	
   they	
   do	
   suggest	
  

that	
   the	
   traditional	
   mechanisms	
   of	
   music	
   discovery	
   are	
   far	
   less	
   effective	
   than	
   new	
  

recommendation	
  technologies	
  that	
  utilize	
  this	
  information.	
  




	
                                                                 	
                                                             18	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                                                                                                                                      Penrose	
  


                                                                                                                                                  Determining	
  Factors	
  of	
  Song	
  Preference	
  -­	
  Mean	
  Response	
  
                                                                                                                                          4	
  
       Not	
  Important	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Very	
  Important	
  


                                                                                                                                       3.5	
  

                                                                                                                                          3	
  

                                                                                                                                       2.5	
  

                                                                                                                                          2	
  

                                                                                                                                       1.5	
  

                                                                                                                                          1	
  

                                                                                                                                       0.5	
  

                                                                                                                                          0	
  
                                                                                                                                                  Familiarity	
   Popularity	
   Fits	
  Mood	
     Artistic	
         Lyrics	
       Friends'	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Talent	
                        Preferences	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         	
  
Figure	
  2	
  

	
                                                                                                                                     Admittedly	
  these	
  findings	
  are	
  self-­‐reported	
  and	
  it’s	
  entirely	
  possible	
  that	
  people	
  

simply	
  don’t	
  want	
  to	
  recognize	
  how	
  much	
  a	
  song’s	
  popularity	
  or	
  their	
  friends’	
  tastes	
  

influences	
  their	
  own	
  preference.	
  To	
  approach	
  the	
  question	
  of	
  how	
  popularity	
  impacts	
  song	
  

preference	
  from	
  a	
  different	
  angle,	
  I	
  examined	
  the	
  frequency	
  of	
  responses	
  for	
  question	
  15	
  

that	
  addressed	
  feelings	
  toward	
  top	
  40	
  music	
  (Figure	
  3).	
  	
  The	
  average	
  response	
  was	
  halfway	
  

between	
  “Some”	
  and	
  “About	
  Half”,	
  suggesting	
  that	
  the	
  previous	
  findings	
  were	
  correct.	
  

Furthermore,	
  a	
  significant	
  portion	
  of	
  respondents,	
  reaching	
  almost	
  20%	
  of	
  the	
  sample,	
  

state	
  that	
  they	
  either	
  don’t	
  pay	
  attention	
  to	
  top	
  40	
  charts	
  or	
  they	
  like	
  none	
  of	
  the	
  songs	
  on	
  

them.	
  This	
  implies	
  that	
  although	
  many	
  users’	
  music	
  tastes	
  are	
  still	
  influenced	
  by	
  top	
  40	
  

music	
  charts,	
  these	
  indicators	
  of	
  popularity	
  may	
  be	
  losing	
  the	
  power	
  they	
  once	
  held	
  over	
  

AM/FM	
  radio	
  audiences.	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                                                         	
                                                       19	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                                   Penrose	
  


                                                                   Preference	
  for	
  Top	
  40	
  Music	
  

                                  All	
  or	
  almost	
  all	
  

                                                      Most	
  

                                           About	
  half	
  

                                                    Some	
  

                                                     None	
  

         I	
  don't	
  pay	
  attention	
  to	
  top	
  40s	
  

                                                                   0	
       5	
            10	
     15	
     20	
     25	
     30	
         35	
        40	
  
                                                                                                                                                                  	
  
Figure	
  3	
  

	
  
Genre	
  Preference	
  


              The	
  survey’s	
  first	
  and	
  simplest	
  measure	
  of	
  respondents’	
  music	
  preferences	
  entailed	
  

rating	
   fourteen	
   distinct	
   music	
   genres.	
   The	
   rating	
   scale	
   included	
   “dislike”	
   =	
   -­‐1,	
   “neutral”	
   =	
   0,	
  

“like”	
   =	
   1,	
   and	
   “love”	
   =	
   2.	
   	
   Rock,	
   Alternative,	
   and	
   Hip	
   Hop/Rap	
   scored	
   the	
   highest	
   on	
  

average	
   among	
   the	
   125	
   respondents,	
   with	
   Latin	
   and	
   World	
   ranking	
   lowest	
   (Figure	
   4).	
  

Additionally,	
   the	
   ratings	
   for	
   Hip	
   Hop/Rap	
   and	
   Country	
   were	
   the	
   most	
   polarized,	
   yielding	
  

standard	
  deviations	
  over	
  1.	
  	
  




	
                                                                                   	
                                                         20	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                           Penrose	
  


                                               Genre	
  Preferences	
  -­	
  Mean	
  
          2	
  


       1.5	
  


          1	
  


       0.5	
  


          0	
  




                                                                                                                              	
  
Figure	
  4	
  

                  After	
  seeing	
  how	
  respondents	
  ranked	
  each	
  genre	
  independently,	
  I	
  wanted	
  to	
  know	
  

how	
   genres	
   clustered	
   together	
   based	
   on	
   these	
   ratings.	
   Using	
   multidimensional	
   scaling	
   in	
  

SPSS,	
  I	
  determined	
  the	
  coordinates	
  for	
  each	
  genre	
  to	
  create	
  a	
  Euclidean	
  distance	
  model	
  that	
  

provides	
   a	
   visualization	
   of	
   the	
   similarities	
   between	
   genres	
   based	
   on	
   the	
   respondents’	
  

rankings	
  (Figure	
  5).	
  Though	
  the	
  interpretation	
  of	
  the	
  axes	
  is	
  essentially	
  meaningless,	
  this	
  

graph	
   is	
   simply	
   a	
   way	
   to	
   visualize	
   perceived	
   similarities	
   between	
   genres	
   according	
   to	
  

respondents.	
   For	
   the	
   most	
   part,	
   these	
   groupings	
   of	
   genres	
   make	
   sense	
   when	
   considering	
  

musical	
  similarities,	
  probable	
  listening	
  environment,	
  and	
  several	
  other	
  characteristics.	
  




	
                                                               	
                                                      21	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                          Penrose	
  


                  Derived	
  Stimulus	
  ConSiguration	
  -­	
  Euclidean	
  Distance	
  Model	
  


                                                                                                             Rock	
  
                                                                                              Alternative	
  



                                                 Jazz	
  
                                 Classical	
  
                                                  Electronic	
  




                             Vocal	
                                                          R&B/Soul	
                Hip	
  Hop/Rap	
  
                                                            Reggae	
  
                     World	
                                                                       Pop	
  
                                                                                  Dance	
  

                         Latin	
  




                                                                                                                               Country	
  

                                                                                                                                               	
  
Figure	
  5	
  

Next,	
   respondents	
   indicated	
   their	
   favorite	
   genre,	
   choosing	
   from	
   these	
   fourteen	
   and	
   “Other”	
  

(Table	
  1).	
  Consistent	
  with	
  Christenson	
  and	
  Peterson’s	
  findings,	
  the	
  “Other”	
  category	
  ranked	
  

fourth	
   largest	
   with	
   14	
   respondents,	
   verifying	
   the	
   importance	
   of	
   accounting	
   for	
  

“metagenres”	
  and	
  subgenres	
  in	
  music	
  classification	
  and	
  recommendation.	
  However,	
  for	
  the	
  

purposes	
   of	
   this	
   analysis,	
   metagenres	
   and	
   subgenres	
   were	
   ignored	
   to	
   facilitate	
   quick	
   and	
  

accurate	
  responses.	
  	
  


       Favorite Genre                       Respondents                    Favorite Genre                                   Respondents
       Rock                                           29                   Pop                                                        6
       Hip Hop/Rap                                    18                   Reggae                                                     5
       Alternative                                    16                   Dance                                                      4
       Other                                          14                   Classical                                                  2
       Country                                        13                   Jazz                                                       2

	
                                                                  	
                                                                    22	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                   Penrose	
  


       R&B/Soul                                      7                    Vocal                                                2
       Electronic                                    6                    Latin                                                1
Table	
  1	
  

While	
   the	
   average	
   genre	
   ratings	
   and	
   favorite	
   genre	
   for	
   all	
   respondents	
   are	
   informative	
   and	
  

fairly	
  interesting,	
  these	
  metrics’	
  true	
  function	
  is	
  to	
  provide	
  a	
  basis	
  for	
  correlations	
  between	
  

subgroups	
  of	
  the	
  college	
  student	
  sample.	
  These	
  subgroups	
  are	
  drawn	
  from	
  four	
  categories	
  

of	
   variables:	
   music	
   preferences,	
   user	
   demographics,	
   musical	
   experience,	
   and	
   listening	
  

environment.	
  


Factors	
  in	
  Music	
  Preference	
  


Correlations	
  Between	
  Genre	
  Preferences	
  


	
               By	
   having	
   almost	
   daily	
   conversations	
   about	
   music	
   preferences	
   with	
   friends	
   and	
  

strangers	
  for	
  at	
  least	
  ten	
  years,	
  I	
  developed	
  a	
  few	
  theories	
  regarding	
  relationships	
  between	
  

genres.	
  I	
  got	
  the	
  sense	
  that	
  people	
  who	
  listened	
  to	
  at	
  least	
  one	
  niche	
  genre	
  tended	
  to	
  like	
  

almost	
   all	
   others	
   as	
   well,	
   and	
   people	
   who	
   preferred	
   popular	
   music	
   had	
   much	
   narrower	
  

tastes	
   for	
   genres.	
   While	
   portions	
   of	
   the	
   Euclidean	
   distance	
   model	
   conveyed	
   similar	
  

information,	
   the	
   best	
   way	
   to	
   test	
   this	
   claim	
   was	
   through	
   bivariate	
   correlations.	
   Using	
   the	
  

spreadsheet	
   of	
   Spearman	
   correlations,	
   I	
   calculated	
   the	
   number	
   of	
   significant	
   correlations	
  

between	
  genres	
  and	
  found	
  two	
  groups	
  of	
  genres	
  separating	
  from	
  one	
  another.	
  I	
  created	
  one	
  

table	
   using	
   the	
   genres	
   with	
   many	
   positive,	
   significant	
   correlations	
   (Table	
   2)	
   and	
   another	
  

for	
   those	
   with	
   fewer	
   positive	
   correlations	
   and	
   more	
   negative	
   correlations	
   with	
   other	
  

genres	
  (Table	
  3).	
  


	
  


	
                                                                 	
                                                              23	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                              Penrose	
  

           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Table	
  2	
  

                                                                              Significant	
  Correlations	
  With	
  Other	
  Genres	
  
                                     Mostly	
  Niche	
  Genres	
  
                                                                                    Positive	
                     Negative	
  
                                                              Reggae	
                 7	
                              0	
  
                                                               Vocal	
                 7	
                              0	
  
                                                               Latin	
                 7	
                              0	
  
                                                               World	
                 7	
                              1	
  
                                                             Classical	
               7	
                              1	
  
                                                                Jazz	
                 7	
                              1	
  
                                                            Alternative	
              5	
                              0	
  
                                                            R&B/Soul	
                 5	
                              0	
  
	
  

           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Table	
  3	
  

                                                  Mostly	
  Popular	
         Significant	
  Correlations	
  With	
  Other	
  Genres	
  
                                                      Genres	
                      Positive	
                     Negative	
  
                                                   Hip	
  Hop/Rap	
                    6	
                              2	
  
                                                      Dance	
                          4	
                              1	
  
                                                    Electronic	
                       3	
                              0	
  
                                                          Pop	
                        3	
                              1	
  
                                                          Rock	
                       2	
                              1	
  
                                                     Country	
                         2	
                              1	
  
	
  


	
         These	
  tables	
  provide	
  strong	
  evidence	
  supporting	
  my	
  claim	
  that	
  users	
  who	
  like	
  one	
  

niche	
   genre	
   are	
   likely	
   to	
   enjoy	
   many	
   more.	
   Not	
   only	
   does	
   it	
   show	
   that	
   niche	
   genres	
   are	
  

positively	
   correlated	
   with	
   many	
   others	
   (Table	
   2),	
   the	
   more	
   popular	
   genres	
   have	
   twice	
   as	
  

many	
   negative	
   correlations	
   (Table	
   3).	
   	
   Hip	
   hop/rap	
   was	
   the	
   one	
   genre	
   positioned	
   in	
  

between	
  the	
  distinct	
  groups	
  but	
  was	
  included	
  in	
  the	
  second	
  table	
  because	
  it	
  had	
  the	
  most	
  

negative	
   correlations.	
   These	
   findings	
   seem	
   to	
   confirm	
   my	
   hypothesis	
   that	
   fans	
   of	
   niche	
  

genres	
  have	
  wider	
  preferences	
  and	
  fans	
  of	
  popular	
  genres	
  have	
  narrower	
  preferences.	
  	
  


Demographics	
  and	
  Genre	
  Preferences	
  


	
                                                                                   	
                                                    24	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                    Penrose	
  


	
         I	
   predicted	
   a	
   few	
   demographical	
   variables	
   from	
   the	
   first	
   page	
   of	
   the	
   survey	
   would	
  

correlate	
  with	
  genre	
  preferences	
  so	
  I	
  examined	
  their	
  Spearman	
  correlations.	
  	
  As	
  I	
  expected	
  

based	
   on	
   Christenson	
   and	
   Peterson’s	
   study	
   and	
   my	
   own	
   experience,	
   gender	
   was	
   negatively	
  

correlated	
   with	
   preferences	
   for	
   Dance,	
   Pop,	
   and	
   Country.	
   Since	
   I	
   assigned	
   the	
   values	
  

“Female”	
  =	
  1	
  and	
  “Male”	
  =	
  2,	
  this	
  means	
  that	
  females	
  are	
  more	
  likely	
  to	
  enjoy	
  these	
  three	
  

genres	
  and	
  males	
  are	
  less	
  likely.	
  While	
  this	
  isn’t	
  an	
  especially	
  groundbreaking	
  conclusion,	
  it	
  

both	
   makes	
   sense	
   and	
   matches	
   up	
   with	
   Christenson	
   and	
   Peterson’s	
   findings,	
   adding	
   a	
  

degree	
  of	
  confidence	
  to	
  other	
  correlations	
  with	
  genre	
  preferences.	
  	
  


           I	
   found	
   another	
   fairly	
   predictable	
   correlation	
   between	
   age	
   and	
   preference	
   for	
   jazz	
  

and	
   classical	
   music.	
   Since	
   the	
   correlations	
   were	
   both	
   significant	
   and	
   positive,	
   we	
   can	
  

conclude	
   these	
   two	
   genres	
   are	
   more	
   appealing	
   to	
   older	
   respondents.	
   While	
   this	
   isn’t	
  

incredibly	
   surprising,	
   it’s	
   interesting	
   to	
   consider	
   that	
   the	
   standard	
   deviation	
   of	
  

respondents’	
  age	
  was	
  only	
  4.1.	
  This	
  means	
  that	
  just	
  a	
  few	
  years	
  of	
  age	
  separates	
  the	
  fans	
  of	
  

classical	
  and	
  jazz	
  from	
  those	
  who	
  enjoy	
  these	
  genres	
  much	
  less.	
  It’s	
  difficult	
  to	
  determine	
  

whether	
   this	
   is	
   caused	
   by	
   a	
   generational	
   difference	
   or	
   perhaps	
   a	
   difference	
   in	
   maturity	
  

levels,	
   but	
   simply	
   knowing	
   the	
   correlation	
   could	
   improve	
   song	
   recommendations	
  

significantly.	
  


	
         On	
   the	
   other	
   hand,	
   I	
   found	
   an	
   unexpected	
   correlation	
   between	
   competence	
   using	
  

computers	
   and	
   preferences	
   for	
   electronic	
   music	
   at	
   the	
   .01	
   level.	
   Put	
   simply,	
   the	
   more	
  

experience	
   respondents	
   had	
   with	
   computers,	
   the	
   more	
   likely	
   they	
   were	
   to	
   like	
   electronic	
  

music.	
   	
   While	
   this	
   correlation	
   makes	
   sense	
   because	
   the	
   creation	
   of	
   electronic	
   music	
  

requires	
  digital	
  signal	
  processing,	
  I	
  was	
  surprised	
  that	
  electronic	
  music	
  was	
  both	
  the	
  only	
  


	
                                                                 	
                                                              25	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                        Penrose	
  


genre	
   correlated	
   with	
   computer	
   skills	
   and	
   it	
   was	
   significant	
   at	
   the	
   .01	
   level.	
   Again,	
   these	
  

correlations	
   at	
   the	
   .01	
   level	
   can’t	
   be	
   generalized	
   to	
   the	
   population,	
   but	
   instead	
   indicate	
  

particularly	
   strong	
   correlations	
   between	
   variables	
   for	
   the	
   college	
   students	
   in	
   the	
  

convenient	
  sample.	
  This	
  particular	
  correlation	
  between	
  a	
  genre	
  preference	
  and	
  computer	
  

skills,	
  a	
  characteristic	
  seemingly	
  unrelated	
  to	
  music,	
  begs	
  the	
  question	
  of	
  how	
  many	
  other	
  

personality-­‐based	
  characteristics	
  correlate	
  with	
  music	
  preference.	
  


           Although	
   I	
   was	
   expecting	
   a	
   greater	
   number	
   of	
   correlations	
   between	
   demographic	
  

information	
  and	
  genre	
  preferences,	
  those	
  that	
  I	
  found	
  present	
  convincing	
  evidence	
  for	
  the	
  

implementation	
   of	
   demographics	
   in	
   music	
   recommendation	
   technology.	
   iTunes,	
   Pandora	
  

and	
   YouTube	
   already	
   attain	
   demographic	
   information	
   and	
   incorporate	
   it	
   to	
   varying	
  

degrees	
   when	
   serving	
   up	
   recommendations.	
   But	
   the	
   more	
   personality-­‐based	
   information	
  

these	
  services	
  can	
  capture	
  without	
  annoying	
  users,	
  the	
  more	
  they	
  can	
  measure	
  correlations	
  

and	
   target	
   recommendations.	
   Whether	
   this	
   implementation	
   involves	
   data	
   mining	
   from	
  

public	
   social	
   media	
   profiles	
   or	
   building	
   extended	
   social	
   profiles	
   within	
   a	
   music	
   application,	
  

it	
   has	
   potential	
   to	
   dramatically	
   improve	
   music	
   recommendation.	
   The	
   key	
   is	
   to	
   convince	
  

users	
   they	
   are	
   benefitting	
   each	
   time	
   they	
   build	
   out	
   their	
   profile	
   and	
   use	
   A/B	
   testing	
   to	
  

ensure	
  that	
  recommendations	
  improve.	
  


Musical	
  Experience	
  and	
  Genre	
  Preferences	
  


	
         I	
  expected	
  the	
  survey	
  questions	
  addressing	
  musical	
  experience	
  to	
  correlate	
  strongly	
  

with	
   genre	
   preferences.	
   I	
   based	
   this	
   hypothesis	
   on	
   two	
   observations	
   of	
   my	
   own	
   experience	
  

with	
  music.	
  First,	
  the	
  more	
  time	
  I	
  spent	
  listening	
  to	
  music,	
  the	
  more	
  I	
  got	
  bored	
  listening	
  to	
  

the	
   same	
   few	
   genres	
   and	
   tended	
   to	
   explore	
   unfamiliar	
   genres.	
   Second,	
   playing	
   guitar	
   has	
  

	
                                                                   	
                                                                26	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                      Penrose	
  


had	
  a	
  tremendous	
  impact	
  on	
  my	
  music	
  preferences	
  and	
  listening	
  habits,	
  and	
  I	
  expected	
  this	
  

trend	
  to	
  hold	
  true	
  for	
  other	
  people	
  regardless	
  which	
  instrument	
  they	
  play.	
  The	
  plethora	
  of	
  

studies	
   on	
   the	
   effect	
   of	
   music	
   education	
   on	
   preferences	
   also	
   motivated	
   me	
   to	
   include	
   these	
  

measures	
   in	
   the	
   study	
   (LeBlanc).	
   To	
   my	
   knowledge,	
   the	
   music	
   recommendation	
  

technologies	
   of	
   iTunes,	
   Pandora,	
   and	
   YouTube	
   don’t	
   take	
   users’	
   musical	
   experience	
   into	
  

account	
   and	
   I	
   felt	
   this	
   represented	
   an	
   opportunity	
   for	
   improvement.	
   Although	
   genres	
   were	
  

the	
  only	
  feasible	
  metric	
  of	
  music	
  preference	
  for	
  the	
  purposes	
  of	
  this	
  analysis,	
  future	
  studies	
  

may	
  address	
  correlations	
  between	
  musical	
  experience	
  and	
  song	
  preferences.	
  


	
         Upon	
  examining	
  the	
  spreadsheet	
  of	
  bivariate	
  correlations	
  generated	
  in	
  SPSS,	
  I	
  found	
  

four	
   variables	
   of	
   musical	
   experience	
   that	
   correlated	
   strongly	
   with	
   several	
   genre	
  

preferences.	
   First,	
   listening	
   hours	
   per	
   week	
   correlated	
   positively	
   with	
   electronic	
  and	
   jazz	
  

music	
   at	
   the	
   .05	
   and	
   .01	
   levels,	
   respectively.	
   Although	
   correlations	
   with	
   other	
   genres	
  

weren’t	
   statistically	
   significant,	
   all	
   were	
   positive	
   except	
   country	
   music.	
   This	
   proves	
   that	
  

listening	
   to	
   music	
   more	
   often	
   facilitates	
   a	
   wider	
   range	
   of	
   preferences	
   and	
   correlates	
  

strongest	
  with	
  electronic	
  and	
  jazz.	
  	
  


	
         Next,	
   I	
   examined	
   how	
   musical	
   education	
   in	
   both	
   schools	
   and	
   private	
   lessons	
  

correlated	
  with	
  genre	
  preferences.	
  I	
  expected	
  the	
  two	
  metrics	
  to	
  have	
  similar	
  correlations	
  

with	
   genre	
   preferences,	
   and	
   hypothesized	
   that	
   higher	
   levels	
   of	
   music	
   education	
   would	
  

correlate	
  positively	
  with	
  preferences	
  for	
  niche	
  genres.	
  As	
  it	
  turned	
  out,	
  “musical	
  education	
  

in	
  school”	
  correlated	
  positively	
  with	
  classical	
  at	
  the	
  .01	
  level	
  and	
  with	
  jazz	
  and	
  world	
  at	
  the	
  

.05	
   level.	
   On	
   the	
   other	
   hand,	
   “years	
   of	
   private	
   music	
   lessons”	
   correlated	
   positively	
   with	
  

preferences	
  for	
  classical,	
  world,	
  and	
  rock,	
  but	
  negatively	
  with	
  country.	
  	
  While	
  none	
  of	
  the	
  


	
                                                                  	
                                                               27	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                             Penrose	
  


other	
  genres	
  had	
  statistically	
  significant	
  correlations,	
  I	
  noticed	
  a	
  general	
  trend	
  of	
  negative	
  

correlations	
   between	
   musical	
   education	
   and	
   preferences	
   for	
   popular	
   genres	
   like	
   dance,	
  

pop,	
   hip	
   hop/rap,	
   and	
   country.	
   Additionally,	
   I	
   found	
   statistically	
   significant	
   positive	
  

correlations	
  between	
  years	
  of	
  experience	
  playing	
  an	
  instrument	
  and	
  preferences	
  for	
  rock	
  

and	
   classical,	
   with	
   six	
   more	
   genres	
   producing	
   positive	
   correlations	
   that	
   were	
   above	
   the	
   .05	
  

level.	
   These	
   findings	
   generally	
   confirmed	
   my	
   hypotheses	
   and	
   show	
   that	
   music	
  

recommendations	
   may	
   be	
   improved	
   by	
   accounting	
   for	
   users’	
   music	
   experience,	
   though	
   a	
  

more	
  thorough	
  study	
  using	
  song	
  preference	
  is	
  necessary	
  to	
  substantiate	
  these	
  conclusions.	
  


Listening	
  Environment	
  and	
  Genre	
  Preferences	
  


	
          The	
  final	
  category	
  of	
  variables	
  I	
  analyzed	
  in	
  conjunction	
  with	
  genre	
  preferences	
  was	
  

respondents’	
   listening	
   environment.	
   	
   I	
   examined	
   respondents’	
   views	
   across	
   eight	
   distinct	
  

listening	
   environments	
   according	
   to	
   the	
   following	
   coded	
   indicators	
   of	
   how	
   often	
   they	
  

listened	
   to	
   music	
   in	
   each:	
   “Never”	
   =	
   1,	
   “Rarely”	
   =	
   2,	
   “Sometimes”	
   =	
   3,	
   “Often”	
   =	
   4,	
   and	
  

“Always”	
   =5.	
   The	
   average	
   responses	
   and	
   their	
   standard	
   deviations	
   are	
   represented	
   in	
  

Figure	
  6.	
  




	
                                                                      	
                                                                   28	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                                                                                                          Penrose	
  



                                                                                               Frequency	
  of	
  Listening	
  in	
  Environments	
  and	
  Activities	
  
                                                                             6	
  
       Never	
  	
  Rarely	
  	
  Sometimes	
  	
  Often	
  	
  Always	
  




                                                                             5	
  
                                                                                                                   4.73	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                      4.36	
  
                                                                             4	
                                                                         4.07	
                                                                +1	
  σ	
  
                                                                                                 3.83	
  
                                                                                                                                                                       3.63	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                     3.27	
                    Mean	
  
                                                                             3	
                                                     3.07	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               -­‐1	
  σ	
  
                                                                             2	
                                                                                                                                    1.89	
  

                                                                             1	
  


                                                                             0	
  
                                                                                     At	
  Home	
   In	
  the	
  Car	
   At	
  Work	
       By	
               With	
   At	
  a	
  Party	
   Studying	
   Sleeping	
  
                                                                                                                                          Yourself	
          Friends	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               	
  
Figure	
  6	
  

	
                                                                             Again	
  I	
  explored	
  the	
  spreadsheet	
  from	
  SPSS	
  that	
  highlighted	
  significant	
  correlations	
  

between	
  these	
  eight	
  metrics	
  and	
  genre	
  preferences.	
  In	
  much	
  the	
  same	
  way	
  that	
  

correlations	
  between	
  genres	
  divided	
  the	
  genres	
  into	
  two	
  distinct	
  groups	
  (Tables	
  2	
  and	
  3),	
  

the	
  variables	
  for	
  listening	
  environment	
  separated	
  into	
  three	
  separate	
  groups	
  (Table	
  4).	
  The	
  

first	
  group	
  of	
  listening	
  environments	
  included	
  “In	
  the	
  Car”,	
  “Studying”,	
  and	
  “Sleeping”,	
  and	
  

more	
  frequent	
  listening	
  in	
  these	
  environments	
  was	
  correlated	
  with	
  higher	
  ratings	
  in	
  

several	
  genres,	
  with	
  no	
  negative	
  correlations.	
  The	
  next	
  group	
  consisted	
  of	
  “At	
  Home”,	
  “By	
  

Yourself”,	
  and	
  “At	
  Work”,	
  and	
  had	
  one	
  or	
  fewer	
  correlations	
  with	
  genre	
  preferences.	
  The	
  

final	
  group	
  of	
  environments	
  was	
  more	
  social	
  than	
  the	
  other	
  two,	
  and	
  had	
  an	
  equal	
  or	
  

greater	
  number	
  of	
  negative	
  correlations	
  than	
  positive	
  correlations.	
  


	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                	
                                                                     29	
  
The	
  Longer	
  Tails	
  of	
  iTunes,	
  Pandora	
  and	
  YouTube	
                                                                          Penrose	
  

Table	
  4	
  

                                                                             Significant	
  Correlations	
  With	
  Genres	
  
        Listening	
  Environment	
  
                                                                                 Positive	
                             Negative	
  
                              In	
  the	
  Car	
          Rock,	
  Hip	
  Hop/Rap,	
  R&B/Soul,	
  Country	
                   0	
  
            1	
                Studying	
                   Jazz,	
  Latin,	
  Classical,	
  Reggae,	
  Rock	
                 0	
  
                               Sleeping	
                           R&B/Soul,	
  Latin,	
  Classical	
  	
                     0	
  
                               At	
  Home	
                                 Hip	
  Hop/Rap	
                                   0	
  
            2	
              By	
  Yourself	
                                      Pop	
                                       0	
  
                               At	
  Work	
                                         0	
                                        0	
  
                             With	
  Friends	
                              Hip	
  Hop/Rap	
                         Classical,	
  World	
  
            3	
  
                              At	
  a	
  Party	
                   Dance,	
  Pop,	
  Hip	
  Hop/Rap	
            Classical,	
  World,	
  Vocal	
  
	
  
	
               At	
   first	
   glance,	
   the	
   first	
   and	
   third	
   groups	
   of	
   Table	
   4	
   might	
   appear	
   to	
   be	
   a	
   DJ	
   guide	
  

indicating	
   which	
   genres	
   should	
   and	
   shouldn’t	
   be	
   played	
   in	
   each	
   environment.	
   However,	
  

these	
   are	
   only	
   correlations	
   between	
   frequency	
   of	
   listening	
   in	
   eight	
   environments	
   and	
  

ratings	
   for	
   genres;	
   respondents	
   were	
   not	
   asked	
   directly	
   which	
   genres	
   they	
   listen	
   to	
   in	
   each	
  

environment.	
   But	
   since	
   they	
   follow	
   such	
   a	
   logical	
   pattern,	
   it’s	
   clear	
   that	
   listening	
  

environment	
  plays	
  a	
  pivotal	
  role	
  in	
  determining	
  which	
  genres	
  users	
  listen	
  to.	
  At	
  the	
  very	
  

least,	
   these	
   correlations	
   provide	
   evidence	
   that	
   music	
   services	
   using	
   recommendation	
  

technology	
   should	
   experiment	
   with	
   allowing	
   users	
   to	
   adjust	
   for	
   different	
   environments,	
  

especially	
  in	
  lean-­‐back	
  music	
  experiences	
  like	
  Pandora.	
  	
  


	
  


Choice	
  of	
  Music	
  Technology	
  and	
  Determining	
  Factors	
  


                 Although	
   forcing	
   respondents	
   to	
   choose	
   one	
   favorite	
   service	
   may	
   have	
   made	
   for	
  

simpler	
  analysis,	
  I	
  assumed	
  most	
  people	
  use	
  more	
  than	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  three	
  music	
  services	
  in	
  

question.	
   So,	
   I	
   asked	
   respondents	
   to	
   rank	
   the	
   three	
   of	
   them	
   in	
   order	
   of	
   preference	
   and	
  


	
                                                                               	
                                                                       30	
  
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube
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The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube

  • 1.     The Longer Tails of iTunes, Pandora, and YouTube: New Technology Shaping Music Preference and Spending     Andrew  D.  Penrose   Program  in  Science,  Technology,  and  Society   Stanford  University         The  author  wishes  to  thank  his  advisors  Professor  Robert  McGinn  and  Professor  David   Voelker  at  Stanford  for  their  valued  feedback  and  guidance  on  this  project.  Additional   thanks  to  all  survey  respondents,  interview  volunteers,  Professor  Fred  Turner  for  the   lecture  that  inspired  this  study,  and  all  others  who  contributed  support.       Correspondence  concerning  this  paper  can  be  sent  to  Andrew  Penrose,  675  Lomita  Drive,   Stanford,  CA  94305.  Address  email  to  apenrose@stanford.edu.    
  • 2. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Abstract   While   the   limited   bandwidth   of   FM   radio   facilitated   widespread   adoption   of   mainstream   music   preferences   and   spending   habits,   new   digital   music   technologies   recommend   and   feature   music   based   on   personalized   user   profile   data.     Whether   this   includes   tracking   purchase   history,   song   “likes”,   users’   emotions,   or   otherwise,   the   shift   from   majority-­‐based   music   recommendation   to   individual-­‐based   is   a   recent   and   relatively   unexplored   development  in  the  music  industry.    The  purpose  of  this  study  is  two-­‐fold:  to  determine  the   most  influential  factors  shaping  users’  choice  of  music  technology,  and  the  extent  to  which   these   new   technologies   affect   music   preferences,   spending   and   engagement.   Focusing   on   iTunes,   Pandora,   and   YouTube,   purpose-­‐built   surveys   examine   the   reasons   users   choose   each   service   and   how   they   perceive   the   technologies   have   affected   their   music   consumption.   Additional   survey   questions   seek   patterns   and   correlations   between   demographics,   musical   experience,   music   preferences,   and   music   listening   environment.   125   college   students   voluntarily   completed   the   survey,   revealing   strong   correlations   between  variables  currently  ignored  by  music  recommendation  technology.  By  enhancing   our  understanding  of  how  new  music  technologies  impact  individual  users,  this  study  may   guide   how   music   applications   can   improve   user   profiling,   personalization,   and   the   user’s   music-­‐listening  experience  as  a  whole.     Keywords:  digital  music  technology,  the  Long  Tail,  music  preferences,  profiling,  multivariate   music  recommendation,  iTunes,  Pandora,  YouTube,  internet  radio           1  
  • 3. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Table  of  Contents   INTRODUCTION  (3-­4)   LITERATURE  REVIEW  (4-­10)   THE  LONG  TAIL:  NEW  TECHNOLOGY  REVEALING  NICHE  PREFERENCES   MUSIC  PREFERENCE  STUDIES   METHODS  (10-­16)   SAMPLING   CONCEPTS   Demographics   Musical  Experience   Music  Preferences   Listening  Environment   Music  Service  Features  and  Effects   CODING  AND  DATA  ANALYSIS   RESPONDENTS   RESULTS  (16-­60)   MUSIC  PREFERENCE  AND  DETERMINING  FACTORS   Song  Preference   Genre  Preference   Determining  Factors  in  Music  Preference   Correlations  Between  Genres   Demographics  and  Genre  Preferences   Musical  Experience  and  Genre  Preferences   Listening  Environment  and  Genre  Preferences     MUSIC  TECHNOLOGY  PREFERENCE  AND  DETERMINING  FACTORS   Factors  in  Music  Technology  Preference   Favorite  Feature   Demographics  and  Music  Technology  Preference   Musical  Experience  and  Music  Technology  Preference   Music  Preference  and  Music  Technology  Preference     MUSIC  TECHNOLOGY  INFLUENCING  PREFERENCE  AND  SPENDING   Effects  on  Music  Preference   Listen  More   Wider  Range  of  Genres   Deeper  Within  Familiar  Genres   More  Sharing  Music   Effects  on  Spending   More  Buying   Buying  Different  Music   Buying  Concert  Tickets   Music  is  Bigger   DISCUSSION  (61-­65)   REFERENCES  (66)   APPENDIX  (67-­75)           2  
  • 4. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose     Introduction     It’s   your   last   high   school   gym   class   before   moving   to   college.   You   return   to   your   locker   to   find   the   lock   broken   and   someone   has   stolen   your   iPod   and   entire   music   collection  out  of  your  backpack.  Fearing  you  may  turn  to  a  life  of  digital  piracy  and  cyber   crime,   your   parents   purchase   the   new   32GB   iPod   Touch   that   holds   7,000   songs   and   connects   to   the   Internet.   Having   lost   all   of   your   music,   you   research   some   popular   music   applications.  It’s  May  20,  2012  and  as  of   April  30th,  the  iTunes  store  offered  over  28  million   songs.  How  do  you  choose  which  0.025%  to  buy?  Do  you  instead  rely  on  the  endless  stream   of   YouTube   videos   your   friends   share   on   Facebook,   or   do   you   create   a   Pandora   station   like   the  150  million  other  Americans  that  enjoy  personalized  music  recommendations?   The  limited  bandwidth  of  AM/FM  radio  necessitated  a  popularity  contest  for  songs,   but   the   technical   constraints   of   terrestrial   radio   don’t   apply   to   digital   music.   The   combination   of   nearly   unlimited   music   choice   and   a   wide   variety   of   music   sites   make   modern   music   experiences   vastly   more   personal   than   terrestrial   radio.   The   proliferation   of   song  recommendations,  shared  playlists,  and  music  blogs  attest  to  the  power  of  the  digital   music  experience.   After  a  particularly  inspiring  lecture  on  digital  media  by  Professor  Fred  Turner  last   year,  I  designed  and  conducted  a  survey  on  Pandora  use  for  a  Communication  course  at   Stanford.  Asking  112  respondents  if  they  had  ever  bought  an  unfamiliar  song  after  hearing   it  only  once  on  Pandora,  59  students  equaling  53%  of  the  sample  indicated  that  they  had.   Even  more  surprising,  15  students  (13%)  indicated  they  had  bought  an  entire  album  after       3  
  • 5. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   hearing  a  song  from  it  for  the  first  time  on  Pandora.  Although  I  recognized  that  the  Stanford   students  that  made  up  the  survey  sample  were  not  representative  of  Pandora’s  entire  user   base,  it  seemed  likely  that  a  significant  percentage  of  Pandora’s  users  were  purchasing   unfamiliar  music  as  well.  I  wanted  to  know  how  these  new  transactions  would  affect  the   music  industry,  amidst  declining  sales  and  a  torrent  of  illegal  filesharing  applications.       Literature  Review   The  Long  Tail  of  Digital  Music:  New  Technology  Revealing  Niche  Preferences   After   Chris   Anderson   published   his   article   “The   Long   Tail”   in   Wired   magazine   in   October  of  2004,  it  quickly  became  the  most  cited  article  in  Wired’s  history,  and  his  book   became   one   of   the   most   influential   business   books   of   the   decade   (Anderson).   Using   e-­‐ commerce   data   that   had   been   historically   restricted   to   executives,   the   book   outlines   Anderson’s  theory  that  the  Internet  has  expanded  the  range  of  effective  inventory  from  a   limited   number   of   “hits”,   as   seen   on   WalMart   and   Blockbuster   shelves,   to   nearly   infinity.   Since   the   post-­‐WWII   era   of   TV   and   radio,   businesses   have   traditionally   capitalized   on   the   power   of   the   top   100   or   even   100,000   mainstream   products,   ignoring   all   the   books,   songs,   and   goods   that   didn’t   make   the   charts   (Figure   1).   But   as   both                        Figure  1       4  
  • 6. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Anderson   and   Lessig   point   out,   the   recent   success   stories   of   Amazon,   Netflix,   and   iTunes   prove   that   the   companies   providing   customers   with   the   most   choices   and   the   most   effective  ways  to  navigate  them  can  earn  as  much  as  40%  of  their  revenue  from  products   along  “the  long  tail.”   During   the   age   of   FM   radio   and   record   stores,   limited   inventory   and   constrained   choice   contributed   to   widespread   adoption   of   popularized   music   preferences.     Retailers   optimizing   limited   shelf   space   and   FM   radio   DJs   seeking   to   maximize   listenership   reinforced  a  culture-­‐wide  fascination  with  top  charts  and  superstars.    However,  as  digital   music   technologies   continue   to   proliferate,   the   seemingly   unlimited   number   of   musical   choices   and   their   innovative   recommendation   systems   are   shaping   listeners’   preferences   and  consumption  patterns  in  new  ways.    Although  the  possible  ramifications  of  unlimited   choice   and   user   profiling   are   numerous,   I   expect   these   technologies   to   both   widen   and   deepen   the   music   preferences   of   their   users.     In   other   words,   the   unique   features   of   new   music  services  will  not  only  enable  the  tracking  of  the  Long  Tail,  but  also  shift  demand  to   make  it  even  longer.    The  purpose  of  this  study  is  two-­‐fold:  to  determine  the  most  salient   factors   that   shape   listeners’   music   preferences   and   choice   of   music   service,   and   to   enhance   our  understanding  of  new  music  technologies’  impact  on  users.   Throughout   history,   from   Mary   Shelley’s   Frankenstein   to   George   Orwell’s   Nineteen   Eighty-­Four,  the  idea  of  technological  determinism  has  caused  society  to  irrationally  view   and   fear   technology   as   an   autonomous   juggernaut,   sometimes   causing   the   restriction   of   tools   that   extend   humanity’s   potential   (McGinn).     A   technological   determinist   might   use   phrases   like   identity   theft,   violation   of   privacy,   and   entertainment   piracy   to   describe   the       5  
  • 7. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Internet’s  relationship  with  its  users.  In  his  book  Remix,  Lessig  argues  that  the  digitization   of   culture   and   the   economy   is   a   positive   change   to   be   embraced   and   understood,   rather   than   restricted   and   criminalized.   He   protests   against   outdated   copyright   laws   now   criminalizing  creative  actions,  calling  for  copyright  law  reform  to  realize  the  full  potential   of   the   new   hybrid   of   commercial   and   sharing   economies.   After   detailing   both   economies   individually,  he  argues  that  the  Internet’s  new  hybrid  economy  is  a  fusion  of  both  voluntary   collaboration   and   traditional   commerce.     He   provides   several   examples   of   companies   —   including  Netflix,  Amazon,  Google,  YouTube,  and  Second  Life  —  and  mechanisms,  such  as   user   reviews   and   recommendations,   crowdsourcing,   and   Anderson’s   Long   Tail   principle,   that   support   his   argument   that   the   new   hybrid   economy   is   “a   model   of   success,   not   a   compromise   of   profit.”   McGinn   also   testifies   to   the   vital   importance   of   resisting   technological   determinism,   acknowledging   technology   and   society   as   interdependent   and   co-­‐evolutionary,   and   monitoring   the   unique   powers   associated   with   each.     These   ideas   guided   this   study   throughout   the   various   stages   of   literature   review,   data   collection,   and   analysis.   Contrary   to   technological   deterministic   perspectives,   more   and   more   IT-­‐based   media  channels  and  corporations  are  capitalizing  on  their  control  over  technology  to  shape   user   interactions   online.     Amazon’s   book   recommendation   feature   is   one   example   of   a   navigational   tool   intended   to   both   maximize   profit   and   cater   to   users’   preferences.     As   Anderson  points  out  in  the  first  chapter  of  The  Long  Tail,  Amazon’s  pairing  of  the  best  seller   Into   Thin   Air   with   the   lesser-­‐known   Touching   the   Void   via   its   recommendation   feature   created   a   powerful   positive   feedback   loop   of   both   interest   and   revenue.   By   categorizing   media   based   on   similarity,   rather   than   —   or   in   addition   to   —   listing   them   by   popularity,       6  
  • 8. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   these   institutions   and   corporations   better   serve   both   the   user   and   the   long   tail   of   the   market.   In   his   book   The   Wisdom   of   the   Crowds,   author   James   Surowiecki   explores   the   notion   that  a  large  group  of  people  is  more  innovative  and  better  at  problem  solving  than  a  small   elite   creative   team,   concluding   that   this   technique   of   “crowdsourcing”   has   enormous   potential   and   has   already   begun   to   shape   online   interaction   (Surowiecki).     Taking   Surowiecki’s   advice,   the   popular   online   DVD   rental   service   Netflix   conducted   a   nearly   three-­‐year-­‐long   public   competition   for   an   improved   Netflix   recommendation   algorithm,   making   Netflix   usage   data   freely   available   in   an   effort   “to   substantially   improve   the   accuracy   of   predictions   about   how   much   someone   is   going   to   enjoy   a   movie   based   on   their   movie   preferences”   (http://www.netflixprize.com).   The   winning   team’s   algorithm   is   yet   another   user-­‐centered   tool   used   to   connect   niche   market   products   and   media   to   their   customers,  directly  facilitating  the  expansion  of  the  long  tail.   Studying  Music  Preference     Many   researchers   have   conducted   studies   revealing   correlations   between   demographical   information,   such   as   age,   gender   and   education,   and   music   preferences.     LeBlanc   et   al.   created   an   overall   music   preference   index   to   measure   subjects’   total   preferences   across   genres   and   compared   responses   between   different   age   groups.     After   surveying   2,262   respondents,   the   researchers   found   that   the   music   preference   index   declined  in  elementary  students,  rose  from  high  school  to  college,  and  declined  after  college   (LeBlanc   et   al.,   1996).     While   these   findings   may   not   provide   a   means   to   improve   music   recommendation   algorithms,   statistically   significant   correlations   between   age   and       7  
  • 9. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   preferences   for   specific   songs,   artists,   and   genres   would   certainly   help   predict   listener   reactions.     Although   surveys   may   be   able   to   determine   linkages   between   age   and   genre   preferences   (as   this   study   will   show),   this   method   is   obviously   not   feasible   for   collecting   larger  data  sets  regarding  artist  or  song  preference.    However,  this  is  one  of  many  examples   of   how   digital   media’s   growing   trend   of   “thumb”   or   “like”   feedback   could   be   utilized   by   companies  like  iTunes,  Pandora,  and  YouTube.     While   most   music   recommendation   sites   focus   on   users’   preferences   and   musical   similarities   between   songs,   several   Taiwanese   researchers   (Suh-­‐Yin   Lee   et   al.,   2009)   investigated  the  use  of  emotion-­‐based  music  discovery  within  the  context  of  motion  picture   scores.     Constructing   an   original   algorithm   called   the   Music   Affinity   Graph-­‐Plus,   Suh-­‐Yin   Lee  et  al.  achieved  an  impressive  85%  accuracy  in  matching  queried  emotions  with  music   of  the  same  emotions.  While  these  results  and  the  growth  of  music  recommendation  sites   like  Stereomood  and  Music  for  Emotion  prove  the  potential  of  emotion-­‐based  song  sorting   and   recommendation,   such   an   approach   has   yet   to   draw   a   fraction   of   the   audience   of   iTunes,   Pandora   or   YouTube.     In   acknowledgement   of   its   potential,   this   study   will   also   survey  respondents  on  their  level  of  demand  for  emotion-­‐based  music  recommendation.   In  2009,  Gaffney  and  Rafferty  conducted  a  study  investigating  users’  knowledge  and   use  of  social  networking  sites  and  folksonomies  (user-­‐generated  taxonomies),  focusing  on   the   potential   of   social   tagging   to   aid   in   the   discovery   of   independent   music.     Examining   the   four   music   discovery   sites   MySpace,   Lastfm,   Pandora   and   Allmusic   through   user   surveys   and  interviews,  they  found  that  although  respondents  use  social  networking  sites  for  music   discovery,   they   are   generally   unaware   of   folksonomic   approaches   to   music   discovery.       8  
  • 10. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Furthermore,  those  who  do  use  and  contribute  to  folksonomies  are  mostly  self-­‐serving  in   their   motives   (Gaffney   and   Rafferty,   2009).     While   Gaffney   and   Rafferty   state   that   their   study  rests  upon  the  assumption  that  music  recommendation  and  social  networking  sites   push  users  and  revenue  toward  the  Long  Tail,  they  make  no  attempt  to  quantify  the  impact   of  any  particular  site  on  the  time  or  money  users  spend  on  Long  Tail  songs.    Additionally,   the  landscape  of  music  discovery  sites  has  changed  dramatically  since  they  conducted  the   study,  especially  in  the  case  of  Pandora’s  rapid  growth.   Unfortunately,   the   vast   majority   of   studies   involving   music   preferences   use   a   nomothetic  approach  to  choose  one  or  two  particular  factors  to  test,  whether  for  simplicity   or  convenience.    Christenson  and  Peterson  built  upon  earlier  studies  of  gender  and  music   genre   preferences   by   including   many   “metagenres”   previously   disregarded   by   social   scientists.     Consistent   with   similar   studies,   they   found   convincing   evidence   that   gender   predisposes   people   to   certain   music   preferences;   for   example,   that   females   gravitate   toward   popular   music   and   males   gravitate   away   from   it.     While   this   study   contributes   a   piece   of   the   music   preference-­‐mapping   puzzle,   Christenson   and   Peterson   admit,   “the   underlying   structure   of   music   preference   cannot   be   accounted   for   by   reference   to   two   or   three  factors,  but  is  multivariate”  (Christenson  et  al,  1988).    At  this  point,  the  need  for  an   idiographic  approach  to  music  preferences  is  clear.   This   study   is   partially   driven   by   the   lack   of   a   multivariate   or   idiographic   study   comparing   the   relative   impacts   of   age,   emotion,   social   network,   choice   of   digital   music   service,   and   more   factors,   on   music   preference.   iTunes,   Pandora   and   YouTube   certainly   have   a   wealth   of   data   on   their   services’   use   and   users,   but   data   points   like   relative       9  
  • 11. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   preference   between   services,   musical   education   and   experience   of   users,   and   listening   environment  are  often  ignored.  Not  only  do  I  find  this  information  intriguing,  I  suspect  it   could   prove   incredibly   relevant   to   both   music   marketing   strategies   and   music   recommendation   technology.   In   addition   to   enabling   the   examination   of   underlying   patterns   between   these   variables,   the   collected   surveys   provide   a   basis   for   predicting   economic   shifts   in   the   music   industry.     It   is   expected   that   by   aligning   recommendations   with   each   unique   users’   profile   rather   than   the   most   popular   songs,   new   music   technologies  like  iTunes,  Pandora,  and  YouTube  both  please  users  and  support  more  artists   further   down   the   Long   Tail.   Furthermore,   the   findings   presented   in   this   study   reveal   significant   relationships   between   variables   that   have   thus   far   been   excluded   from   music   recommendation  algorithms.     Methods   Sampling   Given  my  interest  in  the  college  student  demographic  and  my  immediate  network  of   friends   and   family,   I   focused   my   recruiting   efforts   on   three   different   colleges:   Stanford   University,   Glendale   Community   College   (GCC),   and   Arizona   State   University   (ASU).   Stanford  was  the  first  and  most  convenient  sampling  frame  for  me  as  a  Stanford  undergrad,   providing   38   respondents.   My   parents,   both   professors   at   Glendale   Community   College,   invited  their  students  to  take  the  survey  and  added  71  students  to  the  sample.    Last,  I  sent  a   brief   Facebook   message   to   recruit   ASU   students   from   my   high   school   network.   Response   and   completion   rates   were   lowest   at   ASU,   with   9   students   completing   the   survey.   The       10  
  • 12. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   shortage   of   both   time   and   funded   incentives   ruled   out   a   random   sampling   of   college   students,   but   I   minimized   potential   biases   by   recruiting   from   several   different   schools.   While  a  realistic  distribution  between  schools  would  have  been  preferable,  the  number  of   college  students  who  volunteered  for  my  unpaid,  20-­‐minute  survey  was  significantly  higher   than  I  anticipated.     Concepts   The  first  page  of  the  survey  addressed  respondents’  demographics,  including  age,   gender,  hometown,  current  school,  and  competence  with  computers.    Free  response,  or   open-­‐ended,  answer  formats  will  be  used  for  age,  hometown,  and  current  school,  while   gender  and  computer  competence  will  use  closed-­‐ended  questions.    The  question  “Please   categorize  your  competence  using  computers”  will  include  the  options  “Advanced”,     “Average”,  “Basic”,  and  “NoneVery  Little.”  These  items  were  carefully  chosen  for  clarity   and  appropriateness,  to  ensure  optimal  accuracy.  The  demographic  variables  were  chosen   for  potential  to  influence  both  music  preference  and  music  technology  preference.     The  second  page  of  the  questionnaire  features  units  of  analysis  addressing   respondents’  musical  experience,  in  order  to  gauge  how  each  influences  music  preference.     Each  concept  will  contribute  to  an  index  summarizing  overall  musical  experience,  assigning   quantitative  values  to  qualitative  responses  where  appropriate.    First,  subjects  were  asked   the  open-­‐ended  question  “Approximately  how  many  hours  per  week  do  you  spend  listening   to  music?”  Next,  respondents  selected  the  option,  “Which  best  describes  the  frequency  of   your  online  music  listening?”  from  the  list:  “Rarely”,  “Sometimes”,  “Often”,  and  “All  the   Time.”  Then,  using  a  check-­‐all  question  format,  respondents  indicated  the  school  years       11  
  • 13. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   during  which  they  took  at  least  one  music  class,  with  the  options  “Elementary  (K-­‐8th)”,   “High  School”,  “College”,  and  “None”.    Next,  subjects  indicated  how  many  years  they  have   taken  musical  instrument  lessons  (outside  of  school)  with  free  response.    Finally,  the   closed-­‐ended  question  “Do  you  currently  play  an  instrument?”  was  followed  by  the   contingency  question  of  “How  many  years  have  you  played  an  instrument?”    In  order  to   maintain  both  accuracy  and  the  respondent’s  attention,  these  questions  and  question   formats  were  chosen  based  on  their  clarity,  relevance,  and  brevity  for  each  unit  of  analysis.     Both  the  index  and  individual  units  of  analysis  will  be  used  in  determining  the  most  salient   factors  in  music  preference.   The  next  page  of  the  survey  investigated  subjects’  music  preferences.    For  the   purposes  of  this  study,  music  preferences  were  defined  as  genres  that  an  individual  simply   enjoys  listening  to.    As  mentioned  earlier,  genres  are  the  most  feasible  unit  of  analysis  for   music  preferences  using  a  survey,  given  the  large  numbers  of  artists  and  songs  in  existence.     Using  a  matrix  question,  participants  were  asked,  “What  are  your  attitudes  toward  the   following  music  genres?”    In  addition  to  operationalizing  this  concept  with  multiple  levels   of  enjoyment  (dislike,  neutral,  like,  and  love),  the  list  of  genres  included  those  common   throughout  all  three  music  services  in  question  (see  Appendix  for  full  survey).    The  primary   issue  carefully  controlled  in  this  question  was  the  respondent’s  understanding  of  music   genres.    For  this  reason,  the  selected  genres  were  pragmatically  selected  for  distinctness   from  one  another.    While  this  potential  confound  has  been  minimized,  it  cannot  be  fully   eliminated  without  including  potentially  distracting  full  definitions  of  each  genre.       12  
  • 14. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Although  the  varying  levels  of  preference  within  genres,  or  the  “depth”  of  music   preference,  have  been  accounted  for  with  the  four  options  listed  on  this  genre,  the   following  questions  utilized  a  different  approach  to  measure  the  same  concept.    After   subjects  indicated  their  favorite  genre  from  the  same  list,  they  were  asked,  “Within  your   favorite  musical  genre,  approximately  what  percentage  of  artists  and  songs  that  you  know   do  you  like?”  with  the  options  “0-­‐20%”,  “21-­‐40%”,  “41-­‐60%”,  “61-­‐80%”,  and  “81-­‐100%”.     Next,  the  questionnaire  asked  the  closed-­‐ended  question,  “Of  all  the  “top  40”  popular  music   you’ve  heard,  you  like:”  where  subjects  chose  between  “All  or  almost  all”,  “Most”,  “About   half”,  “Some”,  “None”,  and  “I  don’t  pay  attention  to  top  40  charts”.    Finally,  the  matrix   question  format  asked  respondents  about  the  importance  of  the  following  attributes  in   determining  whether  or  not  they  like  a  song.    These  attributes  included  “familiarity”,   “popularity”,  “fits  my  mood”,  “artistic  talent”,  “lyrics”,  and  “friends’  preferences”,  and  were   classified  as  either  “Not  important”,  “Somewhat  important”,  “Very  important”,  and   “Extremely  important”.    Again,  these  closed-­‐ended  questions  ensured  that  respondents   measure  their  perspectives  by  the  same  standards,  which  was  one  of  the  primary  reasons   for  using  the  online  survey  approach.   The  next  page  of  the  survey  examined  the  respondent’s  music  listening   environment.    Using  the  matrix  question  format,  the  respondents  indicated  how  often  they   listen  to  music  in  each  of  the  following  environments  and  activities,  including  “At  home”,   “In  the  car”,  “At  work”,  “By  yourself”,  “With  a  few  friends”,  “At  a  party”,  “While  studying”,   and  “While  sleeping”.    Potential  responses  utilized  the  Thurstone  scale,  and  included   “Never”,  “Rarely”,  “Sometimes”,  “Often”,  and  “Always”.    While  these  activities  and  locations   may  have  overlapped  somewhat,  each  item  was  chosen  for  relevance  and  potential  to       13  
  • 15. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   influence  music  preferences.    Perhaps  the  most  pivotal  of  the  entire  survey,  the  next  matrix   question  asked  respondents  to  rank  their  “Favorite”,  “2nd  Favorite”,  and  “3rd  Favorite”   music  services  between  iTunes,  Pandora,  and  YouTube;  respondents  could  also  select  a   fourth  option,  “Never  use  it”.    These  music  services  were  selected  because  they  are  widely   used,  legal  alternatives  to  music  piracy  and  because  I  wanted  to  understand  how  they  are   reshaping  the  music  industry  from  individual  users’  perspectives.     The  following  three  pages  contained  contingency  questions  depending  on  whether   respondents  use  the  services  iTunes,  Pandora,  and  YouTube.    Using  similarly  structured   matrix  questions,  these  pages  sought  to  ascertain  the  perceived  impact  of  each  service  on   users’  music  preferences  and  spending  habits  based  on  the  Likert  scale.    For  example,   respondents  were  asked  to  indicate  various  levels  of  agreement/disagreement  with  the   statements  “As  a  result  of  using  Pandora,”    “I  listen  to  music  more  often”,  “I  listen  to  a  wider   range  of  genres”,  “I  listen  to  more  music  within  the  genres  I  like”,  “I  share  music  with  my   friends  more”,  “I  buy  more  music”,  “I  buy  different  music  than  I  would  have  otherwise”,  “I   have  bought  concert  tickets  that  I  wouldn’t  have  otherwise”,  and  finally  “music  plays  a   bigger  role  in  my  life.”    Because  these  questions  directly  apply  to  the  hypothesis  of  this   study,  they  did  not  contain  negative  answers  or  answers  that  might  bias  results,  and  there   were  several  different  units  or  elements  intending  to  measure  the  same  concept.    The  final   question  on  each  page  asked  respondents  to  choose  their  favorite  feature  of  each  service,   choosing  between  “customizability/personalization”,  “its  interface”,  “its  wide  selection  of   music”,  “playlisting  and  song  recommendation”,  and  “Other:  Please  Specify”.    The  Likert   scale  was  chosen  both  for  its  speed  and  appropriateness  in  this  case,  and  the  use  of  similar       14  
  • 16. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   questions  on  the  pages  for  all  three  music  technologies  will  ensure  a  common  standard  of   measurement  and  enable  a  closer  comparison  of  their  relative  impacts  on  users.     Additional   measures   taken   to   ensure   accuracy   of   questionnaire   responses   include   carefully   ordering   the   questions   in   ascending   order   of   difficulty,   eliminating   double-­‐ barreled  questions,  providing  questionnaire  instructions,  and  pretesting  the  questionnaire   on   a   number   of   classmates.     Wherever   possible,   questions   with   similar   potential   responses   were   grouped   as   matrix   questions   to   quicken   response   times   and   maintain   a   higher   response  rate.    Furthermore,  to  improve  the  relevance  of  the  questionnaire,  the  questions   that  may  not  apply  to  all  respondents  have  been  formatted  as  contingency  questions.   Coding  and  Data  Analysis   In  order  to  analyze  the  results  of  the  online  questionnaire,  I  downloaded  the  CSV  file   of  raw  data  for  138  respondents  from  www.rationalsurvey.com  and  imported  it  into  SPSS   Statistics,   which   I   purchased   through   Stanford   Software   Licensing.   Preparing   the   survey   data  for  analysis  involved  several  steps,  the  first  of  which  was  removing  the  incomplete  and   age-­‐inappropriate  cases.  After  deleting  the  few  cases  of  respondents  who  were  no  longer  in   college   or   hadn’t   completed   the   survey,   I   ended   up   with   125   total   respondents.   Next,   I   defined   each   of   the   variable   properties   by   classifying   them   as   either   ordinal,   nominal,   or   scale.    I  then  used  a  number  of  coding  techniques  to  enable  tests  of  correlation,  assigning   numeric   values   to   all   textual   responses.   For   example,   “Never”   =   1,   “Rarely”   =   2,   “Sometimes”  =  3,  and  so  on.  Next,  I  assigned   corresponding   labels   to   the   numeric   values   to   facilitate  my  interpretation  of  statistical  procedures.  Due  to  the  relatively  large  number  of       15  
  • 17. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   questions,  73  in  total,  the  various  strategies  used  to  assign  numeric  values  will  be  discussed   in  tandem  with  the  results  and  analysis  of  each  variable.   Respondents     Due   to   the   financial   and   temporal   constraints   of   this   study,   the   online   survey   was   distributed   to   a   convenient   sample.   Of   the   125   college   students   who   completed   the   survey,   66   (53%)   were   male   and   59   were   female.   Since   I   was   targeting   the   college   student   demographic,   respondents   had   an   average   age   of   21.43   with   a   standard   deviation   of   4.1.   In   response   to   the   third   question   of   hometown,   63   respondents   (50%)   indicated   they   were   from   Arizona,   40   of   which   were   from   Phoenix.   Another   26   respondents   (21%)   hail   from   various  cities  in  California,  and  the  remaining  subjects’  hometowns  included  18  states  and   4   locations   outside   the   United   States.   Although   the   survey’s   findings   may   have   a   slightly   southwest/west   coast   bias,   I   found   this   geographical   spread   acceptable   given   the   study’s   constraints.       Results     While  the  online  questionnaire  consisted  of  five  sections,  analysis  of  results  was   divided  into  three  sections:  music  preference  and  contributing  factors,  choice  of  music   technology  and  contributing  factors,  and  impacts  of  each  music  technology  on  preference   and  spending.  Each  of  the  three  sections  contains  several  different  variables  that  measure   similar  ideas  to  reinforce  findings.  Since  nearly  all  variables  were  coded  into  numeric   values  and  most  of  these  were  ordinal,  a  simple  function  in  SPSS  created  a  spreadsheet  of   all  correlations  between  variables  and  designated  those  of  significance  at  the  .05  and  the       16  
  • 18. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   .01  levels.  Because  the  survey  was  distributed  to  a  convenient  sample,  statistically   significant  correlations  cannot  be  generalized  to  larger  populations.  However,  these   findings  may  be  used  to  speculate  about  how  college  students  consume  music  online  and   how  technology  influences  their  preferences.  Due  to  the  length  and  comprehensiveness  of   the  survey,  the  three  results  sections  include  only  the  most  significant  and/or  surprising   results.       Music  Preference  and  Determining  Factors   Song  Preference     Perhaps  the  most  direct  question  addressing  the  factors  affecting  music  preference,   question  16  asked  respondents  to  indicate  the  importance  of  six  attributes  in  determining   whether   or   not   they   like   a   particular   song.   In   the   interest   of   saving   respondents’   time,   I   selected   attributes   that   were   highly   likely   candidates   of   influence.   Based   on   my   experience   with  music  and  friends’  preferences,  I  expected  popularity  and  friends’  preferences  to  rank   the  highest.  After  all,  it  seems  like  the  two  most  persuasive  reasons  to  check  out  a  new  song   are  that  friends  love  it  or  everybody  else  does.  I  also  speculated  that  lyrics  would  receive   polarized   ratings   of   importance,   and   that   “fitting   the   mood”   would   rank   as   more   important   than   most   of   the   other   attributes.   In   hindsight,   the   attribute   “artistic   talent”   should   have   either   been   reworded   as   “musicianship”   or   juxtaposed   with   “producer’s   talent”;   as   it   stands,  it  seems  hard  to  believe  many  respondents  would  indicate  that  they  don’t  care  if  the   artist  is  talented.       17  
  • 19. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose     The   results   for   these   six   attributes   were   fairly   surprising,   and   have   tremendous   implications   for   the   improvement   of   music   recommendation.   First,   my   predictions   about   popularity   and   friends’   preferences   were   almost   completely   wrong;   respondents   rated   both   lowest,   between   “somewhat   important”   and   “not   important”,   on   average.   Furthermore,   average   responses   for   familiarity   were   positioned   just   above   “somewhat   important”,   illustrating   users’   comfort   with   music   exploration.   Next,   lyrics   ranked   third   with  an  average  response  just  above  “very  important”,  in  contrast  with  my  expectation  that   some   respondents   preferring   instrumental   music   or   songs   by   Justin   Bieber   would   consider   lyrics   of   minimal   importance.   Interestingly   enough,   importance   of   lyrics   was   negatively   correlated  with  preferences  for  electronic  music  and  positively  correlated  with  R&B/Soul,   both  of  which  make  sense.  Although  I  guessed  “fitting  the  mood”  and  “artistic  talent”  would   rank   fairly   high,   I   didn’t   expect   them   to   rank   highest   overall   with   an   average   response   between   “very   important”   and   “extremely   important.”   While   these   findings   don’t   prescribe   an   ideal   way   to   incorporate   each   attribute   into   song   recommendations,   they   do   suggest   that   the   traditional   mechanisms   of   music   discovery   are   far   less   effective   than   new   recommendation  technologies  that  utilize  this  information.       18  
  • 20. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Determining  Factors  of  Song  Preference  -­  Mean  Response   4   Not  Important                                            Very  Important   3.5   3   2.5   2   1.5   1   0.5   0   Familiarity   Popularity   Fits  Mood   Artistic   Lyrics   Friends'   Talent   Preferences     Figure  2     Admittedly  these  findings  are  self-­‐reported  and  it’s  entirely  possible  that  people   simply  don’t  want  to  recognize  how  much  a  song’s  popularity  or  their  friends’  tastes   influences  their  own  preference.  To  approach  the  question  of  how  popularity  impacts  song   preference  from  a  different  angle,  I  examined  the  frequency  of  responses  for  question  15   that  addressed  feelings  toward  top  40  music  (Figure  3).    The  average  response  was  halfway   between  “Some”  and  “About  Half”,  suggesting  that  the  previous  findings  were  correct.   Furthermore,  a  significant  portion  of  respondents,  reaching  almost  20%  of  the  sample,   state  that  they  either  don’t  pay  attention  to  top  40  charts  or  they  like  none  of  the  songs  on   them.  This  implies  that  although  many  users’  music  tastes  are  still  influenced  by  top  40   music  charts,  these  indicators  of  popularity  may  be  losing  the  power  they  once  held  over   AM/FM  radio  audiences.       19  
  • 21. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Preference  for  Top  40  Music   All  or  almost  all   Most   About  half   Some   None   I  don't  pay  attention  to  top  40s   0   5   10   15   20   25   30   35   40     Figure  3     Genre  Preference   The  survey’s  first  and  simplest  measure  of  respondents’  music  preferences  entailed   rating   fourteen   distinct   music   genres.   The   rating   scale   included   “dislike”   =   -­‐1,   “neutral”   =   0,   “like”   =   1,   and   “love”   =   2.     Rock,   Alternative,   and   Hip   Hop/Rap   scored   the   highest   on   average   among   the   125   respondents,   with   Latin   and   World   ranking   lowest   (Figure   4).   Additionally,   the   ratings   for   Hip   Hop/Rap   and   Country   were   the   most   polarized,   yielding   standard  deviations  over  1.         20  
  • 22. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Genre  Preferences  -­  Mean   2   1.5   1   0.5   0     Figure  4   After  seeing  how  respondents  ranked  each  genre  independently,  I  wanted  to  know   how   genres   clustered   together   based   on   these   ratings.   Using   multidimensional   scaling   in   SPSS,  I  determined  the  coordinates  for  each  genre  to  create  a  Euclidean  distance  model  that   provides   a   visualization   of   the   similarities   between   genres   based   on   the   respondents’   rankings  (Figure  5).  Though  the  interpretation  of  the  axes  is  essentially  meaningless,  this   graph   is   simply   a   way   to   visualize   perceived   similarities   between   genres   according   to   respondents.   For   the   most   part,   these   groupings   of   genres   make   sense   when   considering   musical  similarities,  probable  listening  environment,  and  several  other  characteristics.       21  
  • 23. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Derived  Stimulus  ConSiguration  -­  Euclidean  Distance  Model   Rock   Alternative   Jazz   Classical   Electronic   Vocal   R&B/Soul   Hip  Hop/Rap   Reggae   World   Pop   Dance   Latin   Country     Figure  5   Next,   respondents   indicated   their   favorite   genre,   choosing   from   these   fourteen   and   “Other”   (Table  1).  Consistent  with  Christenson  and  Peterson’s  findings,  the  “Other”  category  ranked   fourth   largest   with   14   respondents,   verifying   the   importance   of   accounting   for   “metagenres”  and  subgenres  in  music  classification  and  recommendation.  However,  for  the   purposes   of   this   analysis,   metagenres   and   subgenres   were   ignored   to   facilitate   quick   and   accurate  responses.     Favorite Genre Respondents Favorite Genre Respondents Rock 29 Pop 6 Hip Hop/Rap 18 Reggae 5 Alternative 16 Dance 4 Other 14 Classical 2 Country 13 Jazz 2     22  
  • 24. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   R&B/Soul 7 Vocal 2 Electronic 6 Latin 1 Table  1   While   the   average   genre   ratings   and   favorite   genre   for   all   respondents   are   informative   and   fairly  interesting,  these  metrics’  true  function  is  to  provide  a  basis  for  correlations  between   subgroups  of  the  college  student  sample.  These  subgroups  are  drawn  from  four  categories   of   variables:   music   preferences,   user   demographics,   musical   experience,   and   listening   environment.   Factors  in  Music  Preference   Correlations  Between  Genre  Preferences     By   having   almost   daily   conversations   about   music   preferences   with   friends   and   strangers  for  at  least  ten  years,  I  developed  a  few  theories  regarding  relationships  between   genres.  I  got  the  sense  that  people  who  listened  to  at  least  one  niche  genre  tended  to  like   almost   all   others   as   well,   and   people   who   preferred   popular   music   had   much   narrower   tastes   for   genres.   While   portions   of   the   Euclidean   distance   model   conveyed   similar   information,   the   best   way   to   test   this   claim   was   through   bivariate   correlations.   Using   the   spreadsheet   of   Spearman   correlations,   I   calculated   the   number   of   significant   correlations   between  genres  and  found  two  groups  of  genres  separating  from  one  another.  I  created  one   table   using   the   genres   with   many   positive,   significant   correlations   (Table   2)   and   another   for   those   with   fewer   positive   correlations   and   more   negative   correlations   with   other   genres  (Table  3).         23  
  • 25. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose                    Table  2   Significant  Correlations  With  Other  Genres   Mostly  Niche  Genres   Positive   Negative   Reggae   7   0   Vocal   7   0   Latin   7   0   World   7   1   Classical   7   1   Jazz   7   1   Alternative   5   0   R&B/Soul   5   0                      Table  3   Mostly  Popular   Significant  Correlations  With  Other  Genres   Genres   Positive   Negative   Hip  Hop/Rap   6   2   Dance   4   1   Electronic   3   0   Pop   3   1   Rock   2   1   Country   2   1       These  tables  provide  strong  evidence  supporting  my  claim  that  users  who  like  one   niche   genre   are   likely   to   enjoy   many   more.   Not   only   does   it   show   that   niche   genres   are   positively   correlated   with   many   others   (Table   2),   the   more   popular   genres   have   twice   as   many   negative   correlations   (Table   3).     Hip   hop/rap   was   the   one   genre   positioned   in   between  the  distinct  groups  but  was  included  in  the  second  table  because  it  had  the  most   negative   correlations.   These   findings   seem   to   confirm   my   hypothesis   that   fans   of   niche   genres  have  wider  preferences  and  fans  of  popular  genres  have  narrower  preferences.     Demographics  and  Genre  Preferences       24  
  • 26. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose     I   predicted   a   few   demographical   variables   from   the   first   page   of   the   survey   would   correlate  with  genre  preferences  so  I  examined  their  Spearman  correlations.    As  I  expected   based   on   Christenson   and   Peterson’s   study   and   my   own   experience,   gender   was   negatively   correlated   with   preferences   for   Dance,   Pop,   and   Country.   Since   I   assigned   the   values   “Female”  =  1  and  “Male”  =  2,  this  means  that  females  are  more  likely  to  enjoy  these  three   genres  and  males  are  less  likely.  While  this  isn’t  an  especially  groundbreaking  conclusion,  it   both   makes   sense   and   matches   up   with   Christenson   and   Peterson’s   findings,   adding   a   degree  of  confidence  to  other  correlations  with  genre  preferences.     I   found   another   fairly   predictable   correlation   between   age   and   preference   for   jazz   and   classical   music.   Since   the   correlations   were   both   significant   and   positive,   we   can   conclude   these   two   genres   are   more   appealing   to   older   respondents.   While   this   isn’t   incredibly   surprising,   it’s   interesting   to   consider   that   the   standard   deviation   of   respondents’  age  was  only  4.1.  This  means  that  just  a  few  years  of  age  separates  the  fans  of   classical  and  jazz  from  those  who  enjoy  these  genres  much  less.  It’s  difficult  to  determine   whether   this   is   caused   by   a   generational   difference   or   perhaps   a   difference   in   maturity   levels,   but   simply   knowing   the   correlation   could   improve   song   recommendations   significantly.     On   the   other   hand,   I   found   an   unexpected   correlation   between   competence   using   computers   and   preferences   for   electronic   music   at   the   .01   level.   Put   simply,   the   more   experience   respondents   had   with   computers,   the   more   likely   they   were   to   like   electronic   music.     While   this   correlation   makes   sense   because   the   creation   of   electronic   music   requires  digital  signal  processing,  I  was  surprised  that  electronic  music  was  both  the  only       25  
  • 27. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   genre   correlated   with   computer   skills   and   it   was   significant   at   the   .01   level.   Again,   these   correlations   at   the   .01   level   can’t   be   generalized   to   the   population,   but   instead   indicate   particularly   strong   correlations   between   variables   for   the   college   students   in   the   convenient  sample.  This  particular  correlation  between  a  genre  preference  and  computer   skills,  a  characteristic  seemingly  unrelated  to  music,  begs  the  question  of  how  many  other   personality-­‐based  characteristics  correlate  with  music  preference.   Although   I   was   expecting   a   greater   number   of   correlations   between   demographic   information  and  genre  preferences,  those  that  I  found  present  convincing  evidence  for  the   implementation   of   demographics   in   music   recommendation   technology.   iTunes,   Pandora   and   YouTube   already   attain   demographic   information   and   incorporate   it   to   varying   degrees   when   serving   up   recommendations.   But   the   more   personality-­‐based   information   these  services  can  capture  without  annoying  users,  the  more  they  can  measure  correlations   and   target   recommendations.   Whether   this   implementation   involves   data   mining   from   public   social   media   profiles   or   building   extended   social   profiles   within   a   music   application,   it   has   potential   to   dramatically   improve   music   recommendation.   The   key   is   to   convince   users   they   are   benefitting   each   time   they   build   out   their   profile   and   use   A/B   testing   to   ensure  that  recommendations  improve.   Musical  Experience  and  Genre  Preferences     I  expected  the  survey  questions  addressing  musical  experience  to  correlate  strongly   with   genre   preferences.   I   based   this   hypothesis   on   two   observations   of   my   own   experience   with  music.  First,  the  more  time  I  spent  listening  to  music,  the  more  I  got  bored  listening  to   the   same   few   genres   and   tended   to   explore   unfamiliar   genres.   Second,   playing   guitar   has       26  
  • 28. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   had  a  tremendous  impact  on  my  music  preferences  and  listening  habits,  and  I  expected  this   trend  to  hold  true  for  other  people  regardless  which  instrument  they  play.  The  plethora  of   studies   on   the   effect   of   music   education   on   preferences   also   motivated   me   to   include   these   measures   in   the   study   (LeBlanc).   To   my   knowledge,   the   music   recommendation   technologies   of   iTunes,   Pandora,   and   YouTube   don’t   take   users’   musical   experience   into   account   and   I   felt   this   represented   an   opportunity   for   improvement.   Although   genres   were   the  only  feasible  metric  of  music  preference  for  the  purposes  of  this  analysis,  future  studies   may  address  correlations  between  musical  experience  and  song  preferences.     Upon  examining  the  spreadsheet  of  bivariate  correlations  generated  in  SPSS,  I  found   four   variables   of   musical   experience   that   correlated   strongly   with   several   genre   preferences.   First,   listening   hours   per   week   correlated   positively   with   electronic  and   jazz   music   at   the   .05   and   .01   levels,   respectively.   Although   correlations   with   other   genres   weren’t   statistically   significant,   all   were   positive   except   country   music.   This   proves   that   listening   to   music   more   often   facilitates   a   wider   range   of   preferences   and   correlates   strongest  with  electronic  and  jazz.       Next,   I   examined   how   musical   education   in   both   schools   and   private   lessons   correlated  with  genre  preferences.  I  expected  the  two  metrics  to  have  similar  correlations   with   genre   preferences,   and   hypothesized   that   higher   levels   of   music   education   would   correlate  positively  with  preferences  for  niche  genres.  As  it  turned  out,  “musical  education   in  school”  correlated  positively  with  classical  at  the  .01  level  and  with  jazz  and  world  at  the   .05   level.   On   the   other   hand,   “years   of   private   music   lessons”   correlated   positively   with   preferences  for  classical,  world,  and  rock,  but  negatively  with  country.    While  none  of  the       27  
  • 29. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   other  genres  had  statistically  significant  correlations,  I  noticed  a  general  trend  of  negative   correlations   between   musical   education   and   preferences   for   popular   genres   like   dance,   pop,   hip   hop/rap,   and   country.   Additionally,   I   found   statistically   significant   positive   correlations  between  years  of  experience  playing  an  instrument  and  preferences  for  rock   and   classical,   with   six   more   genres   producing   positive   correlations   that   were   above   the   .05   level.   These   findings   generally   confirmed   my   hypotheses   and   show   that   music   recommendations   may   be   improved   by   accounting   for   users’   music   experience,   though   a   more  thorough  study  using  song  preference  is  necessary  to  substantiate  these  conclusions.   Listening  Environment  and  Genre  Preferences     The  final  category  of  variables  I  analyzed  in  conjunction  with  genre  preferences  was   respondents’   listening   environment.     I   examined   respondents’   views   across   eight   distinct   listening   environments   according   to   the   following   coded   indicators   of   how   often   they   listened   to   music   in   each:   “Never”   =   1,   “Rarely”   =   2,   “Sometimes”   =   3,   “Often”   =   4,   and   “Always”   =5.   The   average   responses   and   their   standard   deviations   are   represented   in   Figure  6.       28  
  • 30. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Frequency  of  Listening  in  Environments  and  Activities   6   Never    Rarely    Sometimes    Often    Always   5   4.73   4.36   4   4.07   +1  σ   3.83   3.63   3.27   Mean   3   3.07   -­‐1  σ   2   1.89   1   0   At  Home   In  the  Car   At  Work   By   With   At  a  Party   Studying   Sleeping   Yourself   Friends     Figure  6     Again  I  explored  the  spreadsheet  from  SPSS  that  highlighted  significant  correlations   between  these  eight  metrics  and  genre  preferences.  In  much  the  same  way  that   correlations  between  genres  divided  the  genres  into  two  distinct  groups  (Tables  2  and  3),   the  variables  for  listening  environment  separated  into  three  separate  groups  (Table  4).  The   first  group  of  listening  environments  included  “In  the  Car”,  “Studying”,  and  “Sleeping”,  and   more  frequent  listening  in  these  environments  was  correlated  with  higher  ratings  in   several  genres,  with  no  negative  correlations.  The  next  group  consisted  of  “At  Home”,  “By   Yourself”,  and  “At  Work”,  and  had  one  or  fewer  correlations  with  genre  preferences.  The   final  group  of  environments  was  more  social  than  the  other  two,  and  had  an  equal  or   greater  number  of  negative  correlations  than  positive  correlations.         29  
  • 31. The  Longer  Tails  of  iTunes,  Pandora  and  YouTube   Penrose   Table  4   Significant  Correlations  With  Genres   Listening  Environment   Positive   Negative   In  the  Car   Rock,  Hip  Hop/Rap,  R&B/Soul,  Country   0   1   Studying   Jazz,  Latin,  Classical,  Reggae,  Rock   0   Sleeping   R&B/Soul,  Latin,  Classical     0   At  Home   Hip  Hop/Rap   0   2   By  Yourself   Pop   0   At  Work   0   0   With  Friends   Hip  Hop/Rap   Classical,  World   3   At  a  Party   Dance,  Pop,  Hip  Hop/Rap   Classical,  World,  Vocal       At   first   glance,   the   first   and   third   groups   of   Table   4   might   appear   to   be   a   DJ   guide   indicating   which   genres   should   and   shouldn’t   be   played   in   each   environment.   However,   these   are   only   correlations   between   frequency   of   listening   in   eight   environments   and   ratings   for   genres;   respondents   were   not   asked   directly   which   genres   they   listen   to   in   each   environment.   But   since   they   follow   such   a   logical   pattern,   it’s   clear   that   listening   environment  plays  a  pivotal  role  in  determining  which  genres  users  listen  to.  At  the  very   least,   these   correlations   provide   evidence   that   music   services   using   recommendation   technology   should   experiment   with   allowing   users   to   adjust   for   different   environments,   especially  in  lean-­‐back  music  experiences  like  Pandora.       Choice  of  Music  Technology  and  Determining  Factors   Although   forcing   respondents   to   choose   one   favorite   service   may   have   made   for   simpler  analysis,  I  assumed  most  people  use  more  than  one  of  the  three  music  services  in   question.   So,   I   asked   respondents   to   rank   the   three   of   them   in   order   of   preference   and       30