The Politics of immigration Peter Kellner Chairman
Saliency in 2005 <ul><li>Which two or three issues matter most? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><ul><li>...
Saliency in 2005 <ul><li>Which two or three issues matter most? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><ul><li>...
Priorities for Gordon Brown <ul><li>What should be his top priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><...
Priorities for Gordon Brown <ul><li>What should be his top priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><...
Priorities for Gordon Brown <ul><li>What should be his top priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) Party </li>...
Attitudes towards immigration <ul><li>Positive statements     Agree   Disagree </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Man...
Attitudes towards immigration <ul><li>Positive statements     Agree   Disagree </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Man...
Attitudes towards immigration <ul><li>Negative statements     Agree   Disagree </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Bri...
Immigration statistics <ul><li>Government figures… </li></ul><ul><li>All </li></ul><ul><li>% </li></ul><ul><li>Are accurat...
Immigration statistics <ul><li>Government figures… </li></ul><ul><li>All Lab </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Are a...
What should the Tories do? <ul><li>Take a tougher stance on immigration? </li></ul><ul><li>All Con </li></ul><ul><li>% % <...
What should the Tories do? <ul><li>Take a tougher stance on immigration? </li></ul><ul><li>All Con </li></ul><ul><li>% % <...
What should the Tories do? <ul><li>Views of party members, Sept 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>‘ The new party leader should campa...
Len Pen’s record <ul><li>1974-81 Pres. FN Deputies </li></ul><ul><li>elections votes seats </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul...
Len Pen’s record <ul><li>The 1986 breakthrough Pres. FN Deputies </li></ul><ul><li>elections votes seats </li></ul><ul><li...
Len Pen’s record <ul><li>Since 1986 Pres.   </li></ul><ul><li>elections   </li></ul><ul><li>%   </li></ul><ul><li>  </li><...
Len Pen’s record <ul><li>Since 1986 Pres. FN Deputies </li></ul><ul><li>elections votes seats </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li><...
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The Politics of Immigration

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Peter Kellner's presentation at a policy network event, April 302007

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The Politics of Immigration

  1. 1. The Politics of immigration Peter Kellner Chairman
  2. 2. Saliency in 2005 <ul><li>Which two or three issues matter most? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><ul><li> April 5 </li></ul><ul><li>% </li></ul><ul><li>Health 41 </li></ul><ul><li>Immigration 40 </li></ul><ul><li>Crime 36 </li></ul><ul><li>Tax 30 </li></ul><ul><li>The economy 27 </li></ul><ul><li>Education 20 </li></ul>
  3. 3. Saliency in 2005 <ul><li>Which two or three issues matter most? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><ul><li> April 5 May 5 </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Health 41 44 </li></ul><ul><li>Immigration 40 37 </li></ul><ul><li>Crime 36 30 </li></ul><ul><li>Tax 30 26 </li></ul><ul><li>The economy 27 32 </li></ul><ul><li>Education 20 28 </li></ul>
  4. 4. Priorities for Gordon Brown <ul><li>What should be his top priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><ul><li>All </li></ul><ul><li>% </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce immigration 65 </li></ul><ul><li>Bring home troops from Iraq 53 </li></ul><ul><li>Act on climate change 38 </li></ul><ul><li>Build more prisons 35 </li></ul><ul><li>Higher taxes on £100k+ 34 </li></ul><ul><li>More parent, patient choice 32 </li></ul><ul><li>Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 </li></ul>
  5. 5. Priorities for Gordon Brown <ul><li>What should be his top priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><ul><li>All Lab </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce immigration 65 53 </li></ul><ul><li>Bring home troops from Iraq 53 43 </li></ul><ul><li>Act on climate change 38 45 </li></ul><ul><li>Build more prisons 35 31 </li></ul><ul><li>Higher taxes on £100k+ 34 44 </li></ul><ul><li>More parent, patient choice 32 31 </li></ul><ul><li>Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 18 </li></ul>
  6. 6. Priorities for Gordon Brown <ul><li>What should be his top priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) Party </li></ul><ul><li>All Lab members </li></ul><ul><li>% % % </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce immigration 65 53 20 </li></ul><ul><li>Bring home troops from Iraq 53 43 25 </li></ul><ul><li>Act on climate change 38 45 56 </li></ul><ul><li>Build more prisons 35 31 16 </li></ul><ul><li>Higher taxes on £100k+ 34 44 51 </li></ul><ul><li>More parent, patient choice 32 31 23 </li></ul><ul><li>Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 18 39 </li></ul>
  7. 7. Attitudes towards immigration <ul><li>Positive statements Agree Disagree </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Many immigrants have contributed positively </li></ul><ul><li>to Britain’s quality of life 58 27 </li></ul><ul><li>Eastern Europeans working here are </li></ul><ul><li>hard-working, competent, reliable 38 23 </li></ul>
  8. 8. Attitudes towards immigration <ul><li>Positive statements Agree Disagree </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Many immigrants have contributed positively </li></ul><ul><li>to Britain’s quality of life 58 27 </li></ul><ul><li>Eastern Europeans working here are </li></ul><ul><li>hard-working, competent, reliable 38 23 </li></ul><ul><li>Immigration from Eastern Europe has helped </li></ul><ul><li>Britain’s economy to grow 24 48 </li></ul><ul><li>NHS would collapse without steady supply </li></ul><ul><li>of new immigrants 20 57 </li></ul>
  9. 9. Attitudes towards immigration <ul><li>Negative statements Agree Disagree </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Britain is overcrowded 75 15 </li></ul><ul><li>Current immigration levels make community </li></ul><ul><li>relations more difficult 74 13 </li></ul><ul><li>Britain is losing its identity / culture 72 21 </li></ul><ul><li>Because of low immigrant pay, it’s harder for </li></ul><ul><li>our unemployed & low-skilled to find work 57 28 </li></ul>
  10. 10. Immigration statistics <ul><li>Government figures… </li></ul><ul><li>All </li></ul><ul><li>% </li></ul><ul><li>Are accurate and tell the full story 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Are accurate as far as they go, but </li></ul><ul><li>don’t tell the full story 29 </li></ul><ul><li>Are inaccurate 56 </li></ul>
  11. 11. Immigration statistics <ul><li>Government figures… </li></ul><ul><li>All Lab </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Are accurate and tell the full story 1 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Are accurate as far as they go, but </li></ul><ul><li>don’t tell the full story 29 49 </li></ul><ul><li>Are inaccurate 56 32 </li></ul>
  12. 12. What should the Tories do? <ul><li>Take a tougher stance on immigration? </li></ul><ul><li>All Con </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Agree 62 85 </li></ul><ul><li>Disagree 15 9 </li></ul>
  13. 13. What should the Tories do? <ul><li>Take a tougher stance on immigration? </li></ul><ul><li>All Con </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Agree 62 85 </li></ul><ul><li>Disagree 15 9 </li></ul><ul><li>But remember Romsey by-election </li></ul>
  14. 14. What should the Tories do? <ul><li>Views of party members, Sept 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>‘ The new party leader should campaign more on the economy and the public services, and less on immigration, than in this year’s general election campaign’ </li></ul><ul><li>Support 74% </li></ul><ul><li>Oppose 17% </li></ul>
  15. 15. Len Pen’s record <ul><li>1974-81 Pres. FN Deputies </li></ul><ul><li>elections votes seats </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>1974 0.4 </li></ul><ul><li>0.3 0 </li></ul><ul><li>1981 - 0.2 0 </li></ul>
  16. 16. Len Pen’s record <ul><li>The 1986 breakthrough Pres. FN Deputies </li></ul><ul><li>elections votes seats </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>1974 0.4 </li></ul><ul><li>0.3 0 </li></ul><ul><li>1981 - 0.2 0 </li></ul><ul><li>1986 9.7 35 </li></ul>
  17. 17. Len Pen’s record <ul><li>Since 1986 Pres. </li></ul><ul><li>elections </li></ul><ul><li>% </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>1988 14.5 </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>1995 15.0 </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>2002 16.9 </li></ul><ul><li>2007 10.4 </li></ul>
  18. 18. Len Pen’s record <ul><li>Since 1986 Pres. FN Deputies </li></ul><ul><li>elections votes seats </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>1986 9.7 35 </li></ul><ul><li>1988 14.5 9.7 1 </li></ul><ul><li>1993 13.8 0 </li></ul><ul><li>1995 15.0 </li></ul><ul><li>1997 15.0 1 </li></ul><ul><li>2002 16.9 11.3 0 </li></ul><ul><li>2007 10.4 </li></ul>
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