Global Energy Picture Today - and key trends to 2050

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Short review of headline data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 + some key energy and environmental trends to 2050

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Global Energy Picture Today - and key trends to 2050

  1. 1. The Global Energy Picture Today – and key trends to 2050 Dr Andrew W. Cox Energy Intelligence & Marketing Research
  2. 2. Overview - Global Primary Fuel Sources Using data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 [www.bp.com] – published 16 June 14 Primary Energy – consumption by fuel sources (Mtoe) The statistics are for calendar years - and are shown in millions of tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) - and rounded to the nearest 0.1%. Global coal [and natural gas] consumption has shown strong growth post-2000 in China/non-OECD 1990 2000 2010 2013 2013 (%) Oil 3162.5 3583.7 4040.2 4185.1 32.9 Coal 2213.6 2342.9 3469.1 3826.7 30.1 Natural Gas 1769.5 2177.0 2868.2 3020.4 23.7 Hydro- Electric 489.8 602.4 783.9 855.8 6.7 Nuclear Energy 453.1 584.3 626.2 563.2 4.4 Renewables 28.6 51.8 168.0 279.3 2.2 TOTAL 8118.1 9342.1 11955.6 12730.4 100.0
  3. 3. Global Primary Energy – consumption by main fuel sources 1988-2013 (Calendar Years / mtoe) 1 toe (tonne of oil equivalent) equal “approximately”: 42 gigajoules; 40 million btu; 1.5 tonnes of hard coal; 3 tonnes of lignite Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, page 43
  4. 4. The BP data only comprises commercially traded fuels – and excludes many renewable energy sources. Global Fuelwood Consumption – Post-2000 estimates by UN FAO indicate that 1.5-2.0 billion cubic metres of fuelwood are consumed annually (mainly obtained from non-commercial, non- sustainable forests). Over 1 billion people rely to varying degrees on these sources of energy. Deforestation in Africa
  5. 5. Underlying issues from the [complex] 2014 BP Statistical Review: • Fossil fuels continue to dominate global energy supply [86.7% of traded primary energy sources in 2013] • Coal continues to increase its share of primary energy – as does natural gas. • Renewable energy and other low- carbon primary energy sources [except nuclear power] have continued to grow - but only make up 13.3% of traded global primary fuels. • Economic growth – particularly in Asia and developing countries – continues to drive further expansion in global energy production and consumption.
  6. 6. During the period to 2050 Demographic forecasts indicate that the global human population will increase to well over 9 billion. [Current population is over 7.2 billion]
  7. 7. The populations of global cities and urban areas will see further expansion during the period to 2050. By 2030 nearly 1 billion people could be living in China’s cities [approx. 1/8th of the world’s population] Many migrants to cities will use significantly more energy per capita than rural populations [due to changes in employment, lifestyles, etc.].
  8. 8. However, electrification programmes are continuing throughout the developing countries. Not all city dwellers will live in affluent conditions.
  9. 9. Increasing populations and economic development will mean more people will be able to achieve a more affluent lifestyle - purchasing consumer goods, cars and more energy-using appliances
  10. 10. Global energy consumption [as well as water, food and resource consumption] will increase significantly by 2050. If low-carbon energy sources don’t supply a far greater percentage of energy demand - and other key measures aren’t adopted – then atmospheric CO2 levels will rise sharply by 2050 accelerating global warming. Atmospheric CO2 levels reached 400ppm in 2013/14.

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