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    Mobile Factbook 2011 (Portio Research Ltd) Mobile Factbook 2011 (Portio Research Ltd) Document Transcript

    • Factbook_2011_Layout 1 16/02/2011 13:25 Page 1
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 1 Mobile Factbook – February 2011
    • 2 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Portio Research Limited. Published February 2011 by Portio Research Limited © Copyright 2011. www.portioresearch.com If you have any questions about the legal licence conditions under which this document has been distributed, please contact Portio Research on info@portioresearch.com Disclaimer and Legal Notices Disclaimer Every care has been taken in the preparation of this study to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, factual and correct to the best of our knowledge, at time of publishing. All opinions, suppositions, estimates and recommendations included in this document are solely the opinions of the authors unless otherwise stated. Portio Research Limited accepts no liability for any loss or damage or unforeseen consequential loss or damage arising from the use of the information contained within this document. The opinions, suppositions, estimates and recommendations within this document cannot be guaranteed, and readers use this information at their own risk. The information published in this document is subject to change without notice at any time, and Portio Research Limited accepts no liability or obligation to inform the reader of such changes. Portio Research Limited do not promote or endorse any specific companies or products, the views and opinions we express in this document are wholly our own assessments, and independent from any external interest or influence. Many terms and phrases and trade names used in this document are proprietary and Portio Research Limited recognises and acknowledges that all trademarks are copyright, belonging to their respective owners. Where possible, this document accords such terms and phrases and trade names to their respective owners. All Rights Reserved. No part of this document can be copied, shared, redistributed, transmitted, displayed in the public domain, stored or displayed on any internal or external company or private network or electronic retrieval system, nor reprinted, republished or reconstituted in any way without the express written permission of the publisher. Forwarding of this electronic document without the correct legal licence is theft. It’s unethical, immoral and against the law. info@portioresearch.com If you did not buy this document and a colleague or associate has sent it to you, do not assume you are legally entitled to read it, it is your responsibility to ensure you have the correct legal licence to read this document.
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 3 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Contents Worldwide Mobile Market........................................................................................................6 Subscriber Base................................................................................................................................... 6 Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution........................................................................... 7 Worldwide Mobile Revenue.....................................................................................................9 Worldwide Mobile Service Revenue .................................................................................................... 9 Revenue Comparison of Mobile and Other Major Industries ............................................................. 10 Mobile Data Services .............................................................................................................11 Overview............................................................................................................................................ 11 Mobile Data Use per Subscriber per Month....................................................................................... 11 Mobile Broadband User Base............................................................................................................ 11 Mobile Applications............................................................................................................................ 12 Emerging Mobile Applications............................................................................................................ 13 Mobile Augmented Reality .............................................................................................................. 13 Mobile Payments ............................................................................................................................... 14 Mobile Payment Users .................................................................................................................... 14 Market Size ..................................................................................................................................... 14 Network Deployments ...........................................................................................................16 Introduction to advanced Network Technologies – 3G, 3.5G, 4G...................................................... 16 3G and above Subscribers ................................................................................................................ 16 LTE Deployments and Trials.............................................................................................................. 18 Mobile Messaging Services ..................................................................................................20 Worldwide Messaging Revenue ........................................................................................................ 20 Annual Messaging ARPU .................................................................................................................. 20 Messaging Revenues by Region ....................................................................................................... 21 Worldwide SMS and MMS Traffic ...................................................................................................... 22 Mobile Handset Industry .......................................................................................................24 Worldwide Handset Shipments.......................................................................................................... 24 Worldwide Smartphone Shipments.................................................................................................... 25 Mobile Infrastructure Market.................................................................................................26 Overview............................................................................................................................................ 26 Market share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors.................................................................................. 27 Also available from Portio Research Limited ..................................................................................... 28
    • 4 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 List of Figures Figure 1: Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) ........................................ 6 Figure 2: Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010) ............................ 7 Figure 3: Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2015F) .......................... 8 Figure 4: Mobile Service Revenue — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 – End 2015F) ............... 9 Figure 5: Revenues of Major Industries — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2008 & End 2009) ....... 10 Figure 6: Comparison of Mobile Services with Other Industries — Y-o-Y Growth in Revenue (2009) .......................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 7: Mobile Data Use per Subscriber per Month – Regional (In MB, 2009 – 2014F) ............... 11 Figure 8: Mobile Broadband User Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2014F) ............................. 12 Figure 9: Mobile Applications User Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F)............................ 12 Figure 10: Mobile Application Downloads – Worldwide (In Billion, 2009 – 2015F)............................. 13 Figure 11: Mobile Payment Users and Penetration – Worldwide (2009 – 2014F).............................. 14 Figure 12: Mobile Payment Volumes – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 – 2014F)............................ 15 Figure 13: Technology Forecast — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................... 17 Figure 14: Regional Break-out of LTE Deployments (In Percent, End 2015F) ................................... 18 Figure 15: Cumulative LTE Deployments – Worldwide (End 2010 – End 2015F) .............................. 19 Figure 16: Mobile Messaging Revenue – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F)........................ 20 Figure 17: Annual Messaging ARPU – Worldwide (In USD, 2008 – 2015F) ...................................... 21 Figure 18: Worldwide Mobile Messaging Revenue – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010)......... 21 Figure 19: SMS Traffic – Worldwide (In Billion, 2008 – 2015F).......................................................... 22 Figure 20: MMS Traffic – Worldwide (In Billion, 2008 – 2015F) ......................................................... 23 Figure 21: Mobile Handset Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F)................................. 24 Figure 22: Smartphone Shipments as a Percentage of Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) .................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 23: Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F)........................... 26 Figure 24: Market Share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors (Q2 2010)................................................ 27
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 5 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 List of Tables Table 1: Mobile Subscribers – Regional (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) .................................................. 7 Table 2: Mobile Subscribers for 3G and Above Networks – Regional (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) ... 17
    • 6 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Worldwide Mobile Market Subscriber Base Mobile communication has undoubtedly revolutionised the telecommunications industry. Year after year, the mobile market has reported significant growth worldwide. The exceptional growth in Western markets is mirrored by the upswing in the emerging markets of Asia Pacific, and it has now also smoothly transitioned in the Africa and Middle East region. Advanced networks, attractive tariff plans, affordable handsets and the availability of enhanced data services – such as mobile apps, mobile payments and high-speed mobile Internet – have fuelled this impressive growth. The number of mobile subscribers worldwide stood at nearly 5.3 billion at end-2010. The subscriber base is forecast to increase at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.9 percent between 2010 and 2015 to reach nearly 7.4 billion by end-2015. The figure below highlights the growth in worldwide mobile subscriber base during 2008- 2015. Figure 1: Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted The emerging markets of Asia Pacific and the Africa and Middle East (AME) region will lead the mobile subscriber base growth, while the advanced markets of North America and Western Europe will witness moderate growth. 4,655.8 5,254.6 5,787.1 6,262.5 6,675.1 7,037.9 7,351.5 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F MobileSubscriberBase (InMillion) Year
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 7 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Table 1: Mobile Subscribers – Regional (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) 1 Region Mobile Subscribers (In Million) CAGR (In Percent, 2009– 2015) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Western Europe 499.9 518.3 530.5 540.7 549.3 556.6 562.8 2.0 Eastern Europe 538.4 560.3 584.6 600.5 613.0 622.8 630.3 2.7 Asia Pacific 2,132.1 2,521.2 2,856.5 3,156.4 3,416.5 3,643.9 3,838.1 10.3 North America 313.5 334.6 352.1 368.0 382.2 395.0 406.3 4.4 Latin America 494.0 534.8 574.4 608.1 637.9 663.9 686.5 5.6 Africa and Middle East 677.9 785.4 889.0 988.8 1,076.1 1,155.7 1,227.5 10.4 Total 4,655.8 5,254.6 5,787.1 6,262.5 6,675.1 7,037.9 7,351.5 7.9 Source: Portio Research Ltd. Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution Asia Pacific’s subscribers constituted 48 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base in 2010, while the second largest contribution was Europe with 20.5 percent. The figure below depicts regional contribution to the worldwide mobile subscriber base in 2010. Between 2010-2015, the percentage contribution of the Asia Pacific and AME regions to the worldwide subscriber base is expected to increase at the expense of the remaining regions, which will see declines during the same period. Asia Pacific will continue to dominate the worldwide mobile market, and in 2015 over 52 percent of worldwide mobile subscribers will originate from this region. The percentage contribution of the AME region will rise from 14.9 1 Note: Sum of regional numbers may not equal total due to rounding off errors. Figure 2: Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010) Source: Portio Research Ltd. 20.5% 48.0% 6.4% 10.2% 14.9% Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East
    • 8 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 percent at end-2010 to 16.7 percent at end-2015. The percentage contributions of other regions are expected to decrease continuously over the same period. The increase in subscriber base share for the Asia Pacific and AME regions can be ascribed to the strong subscriber base growth in the emerging markets. The figure below depicts regional contribution to the worldwide mobile subscriber base in 2015. Further recommended reading: Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile Messaging Futures 2011-2015 2 Note: The percentages do not add up to 100 percent because of rounding off errors. Figure 3: Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2015F) 2 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 16.2% 52.2% 5.5% 9.3% 16.7% Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 9 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Worldwide Mobile Revenue Worldwide Mobile Service Revenue In 2009, mobile services generated over USD 1 trillion in revenue worldwide, recorded nearly USD 1.2 trillion in 2010, and are now expected to break USD 1.7 trillion by end-2015 – after growing at a CAGR of 8.7 percent between 2009 and 2015. Service revenue growth is expected to outpace mobile subscriber growth by end-2012; the launch of advanced network technologies – such as LTE and WiMAX – will significantly boost the uptake of data services and, in turn, higher data revenues in developed markets. Emerging markets are also witnessing an upward trend in the adoption of data services, offering impetus to service revenues. Figure 4: Mobile Service Revenue — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 – End 2015F) 3 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 3 Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in November 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. 1,053.0 1,174.9 1,292.5 1,416.2 1,531.4 1,639.2 1,737.8 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F MobileServiceRevenue (InUSDBillion) Year
    • 10 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Revenue Comparison of Mobile and Other Major Industries The mobile market, in terms of revenue generated in 2009, has outperformed the Software and Services, Pharmaceuticals, IT Hardware and Semiconductor markets. Of these five markets, mobile services exhibited the highest growth in 2008–2009, followed by Software and Services. The IT hardware industry was the worst affected by the recessionary period. Figure 5: Revenues of Major Industries — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2008 & End 2009) Source: Portio Research Ltd. Figure 6: Comparison of Mobile Services with Other Industries — Y-o-Y Growth in Revenue (2009) Source: Portio Research Ltd. Further recommended reading: Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 912.1 967.0 735.0 594.0 249.0 1,053.0 912.2 837.0 536.3 228.4 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Mobile Services Software and Services Pharmaceuticals IT Hardware Semiconductor Revenues (InUSDBillion) Industry 23.1% -5.7% 13.9% -9.7% -8.3% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Mobile Services Software and Services Pharmaceuticals IT Hardware Semiconductors Year
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 11 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Mobile Data Services Overview The worldwide mobile market has become very competitive and voice ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) is in decline in most markets worldwide. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) are adopting various strategies to increase revenue from sources other than voice. The focus has already shifted from voice to data services and MNOs are adopting advanced technologies such as Long Term Evolution (LTE) and Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) to build their data handling capacities. Mobile Data Use per Subscriber per Month As mobile technology has evolved, so have mobile subscribers. Mobile customers now record higher data usage levels – in some cases astronomically so – and have much higher expectation levels for mobile services. Massive growth in the use of data services on mobile handsets and laptops through 3G and 3.5G networks has been seen, and mobile applications – including social networking, video sharing and online gaming – are gaining increasing popularity. Figure 7: Mobile Data Use per Subscriber per Month – Regional (In MB, 2009 – 2014F) 4 5 Source: Cisco VNI Mobile Forecasts and Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Mobile Broadband User Base The mobile broadband market is gaining momentum worldwide. The evolution of mobile networks has enabled high-speed data transfer and has made mobile broadband more attractive to subscribers. The worldwide user base for mobile broadband stood at 371.7 million at end-2009. With MNOs making huge investments to improve the quality and utility of services, the mobile broadband user base is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36.4 percent between 2009 and 2014 to reach nearly 1.8 billion by end-2014. Worldwide, the percentage 4 Note: The forecasts for mobile data traffic per subscriber per month have been made based on the total mobile subscriber base forecasts in the mentioned regions. 5 Note: 2010 figures shown here were originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in August 2010, and have not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. 31 72 167 346 631 1,015 19 39 82 158 272 415 53 127 308 662 1,252 2,083 9 21 47 96 173 276 3 8 19 42 82 140 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F MobileDataTraffic(InMB) Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East
    • 12 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 of mobile subscribers using mobile broadband is expected to grow from 8.1 percent at end- 2009 to 27.8 percent by end-2014. The figure below depicts the mobile broadband user base from 2009 to 2014. Figure 8: Mobile Broadband User Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2014F) 6 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Mobile Applications Mobile applications are rapidly changing the nature of the mobile industry, supporting the ongoing transformation of handsets from simple communication devices into gadgets with powerful information, entertainment and productivity features, as well as boosting the use of mobile data services. The figure below depicts the mobile applications user base from 2009 to 2015. Figure 9: Mobile Applications User Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) 7 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 6 Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in June 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. This also applies to the accompanying service penetration text. 7 Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in October 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. 371.7 521.6 721.1 975.6 1,316.5 1,757.5 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F MobileBroadbandUserBase (InMillion) Year 38.7 69.1 100.4 136.3 174.9 213.9 255.9 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F MobileApplicationsUserBase (InMillion) Year
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 13 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 The increasing number of mobile application downloads reflects the growing uptake of mobile application services. The number of downloads is expected to increase at a CAGR of 53.2 percent in the period between 2009 and 2015, and this is depicted in the figure below. Figure 10: Mobile Application Downloads – Worldwide (In Billion, 2009 – 2015F) 8 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Emerging Mobile Applications Mobile Augmented Reality At present, the market for Mobile Augmented Reality (MAR) applications is relatively small due to the limited number of devices supporting the technology. MAR can contribute to enhancements and innovations in many mobile application categories, such as gaming, entertainment, location-based searches, education, social networking, retail, travel and tourism – with mobile gaming and location-based search apps being the key categories. Currently, the market is dominated by small start-ups with developer teams who are driving innovation. In future, established players such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, RIM and (at publication) Nokia, who also have their own OS platforms and developer tools, will be strongly placed to dominate this space. Moreover, developments in areas such as real-time face recognition and visual searches are expected to make MAR even more attractive and useful to users. Owing to the large amount of utility that is expected to be derived from MAR, this technology is expected to spread across all industries. 8 Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in October 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. 2.9 6.7 11.1 16.3 22.6 29.6 37.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F MobileApplicationDownloads (InBillion) Year
    • 14 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Mobile Payments In light of falling voice ARPU, mobile operators around the world are focusing their efforts on stabilising ARPU by promoting mobile data services. Mobile payment services are also a part of MNOs’ promotional campaigns, and operators – either on their own or in partnership with banks and mobile payment service providers – are developing platforms and applications to offer mobile payment services. With such initiatives in place, the mobile payments segment has established itself in several advanced mobile markets worldwide and is now expanding its reach in emerging markets as well. Mobile Payment Users In 2010, there were 116 million mobile payment users worldwide; this number is forecast to reach nearly 490 million by the end of 2014. The figure below highlights the number of mobile payment users worldwide and their penetration within the worldwide mobile subscriber base between 2009 and 2014. Market Size Mobile payment volumes were USD 108.3 billion in 2010 and are forecast to reach USD 633.4 billon by end-2014. The next figure depicts the growth of mobile payment volumes between 2009 and 2014. 9 Note: 2010 figures shown here were originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in March 2010, and have not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. Please also note that Portio’s worldwide mobile subscriber forecasts have since been recast, which may have some bearing on the forecasted service penetration levels. Figure 11: Mobile Payment Users and Penetration – Worldwide (2009 – 2014F) 9 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 81.3 116.0 165.5 237.3 340.6 489.5 1.8 2.3 3.0 4.1 5.6 7.8 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F MobilePaymentPenetration (InPercent) Users(InMillion) Year Users (In Million) Mobile Payment Penetration (In Percent)
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 15 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Figure 12: Mobile Payment Volumes – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 – 2014F) 10 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Further recommended reading: Mobile Applications Futures 2010-2015 LTE and the Road to 4G 2010-2015 Mobile Payments 2010-2014 Strategies for Driving Mobile Data and Broadband Adoption Mobile Augmented Reality 10 Note: The 2010 figure shown here was also originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in March 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. 68.7 108.3 171.0 270.0 415.5 633.4 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F MobilePaymentVolumes (InUSDBillion) Year
    • 16 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Network Deployments Introduction to advanced Network Technologies – 3G, 3.5G, 4G 3G • 3G is an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) specification for the third generation of mobile communication technology. • 3G technologies are typically packet-switched and use Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology to communicate. Examples of 3G include 1xRTT, HDR and W- CDMA. 3.5G • 3.5G technologies are the evolution of 3G technologies to enable broadband speeds in mobile networks • There are several protocols in the High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA) family, also coined 3.5G or 3G+, which allow networks based on Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) to have higher data transfer speeds and capacity • HSPA refers to a family of broadband technologies – HSDPA and HSUPA 4G • 4G or fourth generation WWAN (Wireless Wide Area Network) communication systems are characterised by high-speed data rates at 20+ Mbps, suitable for high- resolution movies and television • Some competing technology standards for 4G technologies are mobile WiMAX, the GSM standard’s UMTS Long Term Evolution (LTE), and CDMA EV-DO Rev. C (also known as Ultra-Mobile Broadband or UMB) WiMAX • Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) refers to the 802.16e technologies which have evolved through several enhancements of the 802.11 technologies (used for providing Wi-Fi services) • WiMAX enables high-order modulation, efficient coding, adaptive modulation and coding as well as Hybrid Automatic Repeat Request (HARQ), which is similar to the GSM technology HSPA (High-Speed Packet Access) Long-Term Evolution (LTE) • LTE is the standard being developed by 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project) to achieve download rates of 100 Mbps, and upload rates of 50 Mbps for every 20MHz of spectrum and is termed as a 4G standard • LTE will have support for bandwidths ranging from 1.25MHz to 20MHz 3G and above Subscribers MNOs are moving towards 3G and above networks to improve spectral efficiency and to provide better quality of service (QoS), especially for data services. 2009 saw wide-scale adoption of 3G and 3.5G networks, even in emerging markets, and developed markets are now keen to move to 4G networks to accommodate burgeoning data traffic. By end-2010, nearly 22.5 percent of the total subscriber base worldwide used services based on 3G and above networks.
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 17 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 The following figure provides the worldwide subscriber forecast for 3G and above services. Figure 13: Technology Forecast — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) 11 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Table 2: Mobile Subscribers for 3G and Above Networks – Regional (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) 12 Region Mobile Subscribers for 3G and Above Networks (In Million) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Europe 333.7 468.5 640.8 796.1 920.7 1,036.1 1,085.6 Asia Pacific 288.3 411.0 720.7 1,109.0 1,556.9 2,019.2 2,388.6 North America 74.4 124.6 174.0 220.1 261.6 301.4 316.4 Latin America 22.3 58.3 103.4 158.2 219.3 280.6 302.2 Africa and Middle East 60.9 119.5 204.7 309.2 428.2 552.3 604.6 Total 779.5 1,181.9 1,843.5 2,592.6 3,386.8 4,189.6 4,697.4 Source: Portio Research Ltd. 11 Note: 2010 figures shown here were originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in November 2010, and have not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. This also applies to the accompanying Table 2. 12 Note: Sum of regional numbers may not equal total due to rounding off errors. 3,876.3 4,072.7 3,943.6 3,669.9 3,288.3 2,848.3 2,654.1 779.5 1,181.9 1,843.5 2,592.6 3,386.8 4,189.6 4,697.4 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F MobileSubscribers (InMillion) Year 3G and above 2G and others
    • 18 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 LTE Deployments and Trials Mobile markets worldwide have witnessed a surge in the number of MNOs committing to LTE network deployment as a path for moving towards 4G services. With MNOs putting their weight behind LTE proliferation, a diverse and competitive ecosystem of devices and infrastructure products is expected to emerge. This shift of manufacturing ecosystem towards LTE will help in bringing down the cost of devices and of network deployments. Therefore, as LTE deployments gain momentum, the incentive for other MNOs for following suit also increases. According to the announcements made to end-June 2010, 158 LTE deployments (including on-going network deployments, trials and commitments of which two were in-service) are scheduled before end-2015.13 The figure on the next page shows worldwide cumulative LTE deployments to 2015. The figure below forecasts a regional break-out of these 158 LTE deployments. 13 Source: http://www.3gamericas.org/documents/Global%20Status%20Update%20June%2014%202010.pdf 14 Note: As the accompanying text explains, “deployments” here refers to the number of LTE networks expected to be in service by end-2015— based on data as of June 2010. Figure 14: Regional Break-out of LTE Deployments (In Percent, End 2015F) 14 Source: Portio Research Ltd. 36.7% 26.6% 10.1% 17.1% 9.5% Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 19 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Figure 15: Cumulative LTE Deployments – Worldwide (End 2010 – End 2015F) 15 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Further recommended reading: LTE and the Road to 4G 2010-2015 15 Note: Cumulative LTE deployments refer to the number of LTE networks expected to be in service by the end of the years mentioned in this figure. Cumulative LTE deployment forecasts till 2015 include all the deployments taking place before 2015. Also, the 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in August 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook 29 56 79 106 131 158 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F LTEDeployments Year
    • 20 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Mobile Messaging Services Messaging services have shown promising growth in the past and are anticipated to grow in the future too. Intense competition, fierce price wars and commoditisation of voice in some markets has led to a decline in average revenue per user (ARPU). In order to recoup revenues lost to falling voice service charges, operators have shifted their focus to promote data services, with mobile messaging services being key among these. MNOs are making huge investments in high-speed networks, combined with offering discounted or unlimited plans, to push the uptake of messaging services among subscribers. Worldwide Messaging Revenue The worldwide mobile messaging market was worth USD 179.2 billion in 2010. This number is forecast to rise to USD 334.7 billion by end-2015, at a CAGR of 13.3 percent between 2010 and 2015. The figure below depicts worldwide mobile messaging revenue during 2008-2015. Figure 16:Mobile Messaging Revenue – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F) 16 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Annual Messaging ARPU In 2009, there was a drop in annual messaging ARPU. This was because of the worldwide economic downturn in which users had restricted their spending. However, the market recovered and annual messaging ARPU stood at USD 36.2 in 2010. This figure is expected to increase in the coming years and reach USD 46.5 by end-2015. 16 Note: This and other messaging data sets are taken from a report written in the fourth quarter of 2010. As such, quoted full year 2010 figures use data collected from the first three quarters of 2010 and estimations for the fourth then-unavailable quarter. 129.1 148.4 179.2 209.8 241.8 274.9 306.0 334.7 0 70 140 210 280 350 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F MobileMessagingRevenue (InUSDBillion) Year
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 21 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Figure 17:Annual Messaging ARPU – Worldwide (In USD, 2008 – 2015F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Messaging Revenues by Region Supported by the largest subscriber base, Asia Pacific is the leading market for mobile messaging, while Europe is the second biggest mobile messaging market worldwide in terms of 2010 revenue. North America placed third with a 23.4 percent share, AME was fourth, while Latin America made the least contribution to messaging revenue in 2010. The figure below highlights these regional contributions. The ranks of regions in 2015, in terms of contributions to worldwide mobile messaging revenue, are expected to be the same as in 2010. Asia Pacific will still be the biggest market and will be followed by Europe and North America. 17 Note: The percentages do not add up to 100 percent because of rounding off errors. 35.0 34.1 36.2 38.0 40.1 42.5 44.6 46.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F AnnualMessagingARPU (InUSD) Year Figure 18: Worldwide Mobile Messaging Revenue – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010) 17 Source: Portio Research Ltd. 30.7% 37.0% 23.4% 3.6%5.4% Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East
    • 22 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Worldwide SMS and MMS Traffic Short Messaging Service, simply known as SMS, has established itself as the simplest, easiest and most economical means of personalised one-to-one communication – with SMS volume growth statistics attesting to its popularity. With its widespread reach to virtually all mobile subscribers (John’s Phone users being one exception), SMS has long been the most popular messaging service and has helped MNOs significantly offset the effects of falling voice revenue. Over 6.9 trillion SMS were exchanged worldwide in 2010, and total SMS traffic is expected to reach more than 11.6 trillion by end-2015—a CAGR of nearly 11 percent. The following figure shows worldwide SMS traffic from 2008-2015. Figure 19: SMS Traffic – Worldwide (In Billion, 2008 – 2015F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted MMS, launched with the unrealistically high expectations that it would mirror the success of SMS and hampered by technical problems and over-pricing during its early years, has largely solved its teething issues and retains its status as the world’s second most popular messaging service. Around 249 billion MMS were generated in 2010, representing a y-o-y growth rate of more than 47 percent. This number is forecast to reach close to 592 billion by end-2015, after increasing at a CAGR of 18.9 percent during 2010-2015. The next figure shows worldwide MMS traffic during 2008-2015. 3,972.9 5,225.6 6,936.8 8,015.5 9,089.3 10,163.4 10,968.7 11,665.0 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F SMSTraffic (InBillion) Year
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 23 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Figure 20: MMS Traffic – Worldwide (In Billion, 2008 – 2015F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Further recommended reading: Mobile Messaging Futures 2011-2015 80.5 169.1 248.7 320.5 400.5 474.8 536.8 591.8 0 90 180 270 360 450 540 630 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F MMSTraffic (InBillion) Year
    • 24 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Mobile Handset Industry Worldwide Handset Shipments Handset shipments are influenced by different factors, such as mobile penetration in a given geography, subscriber additions in a given period, and handset replacement rates 18 • Implementation of new technologies (3G, 4G/LTE) in key geographies including North America, Europe and Asia Pacific . Rising mobile penetration increases the subscriber base, which fuels the demand for handsets; and higher penetration rates also impact replacement rates. During 2009-2010, total worldwide handset shipments recorded an impressive growth of 12.2 percent year-on-year. Customer spending on handsets is expected to increase in the coming years, primarily due to: • Availability of new devices with better features and designs. There have been numerous product launches in the last year from key vendors including Apple, RIM, Nokia, HTC, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and Motorola – at varying price points. • Availability of wide device portfolios across different markets, as vendors enter into region-wide partnerships with MNOs to launch their products across multiple geographies • With the increasing popularity of Android OS, there has been rising demand for Android-based handsets Figure 21: Mobile Handset Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F) 19 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 18 Replacement rates: This is the frequency at which mobile subscribers substitute their old handsets with new ones. Higher replacement rates result in growth in demand. An average replacement rate of 50 percent means average replacement time for handsets is 2 years. 19 Note: This and other handset/smartphone data sets are taken from a report written in the fourth quarter of 2010. As such, quoted full year 2010 figures use data collected from the first three quarters of 2010 and estimations for the fourth then-unavailable quarter. 1,165.6 1,307.9 1,375.4 1,481.7 1,600.3 1,687.5 1,752.4 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F MobileHandsetShipments (InMillion) Year
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 25 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Despite the worldwide economic slowdown, the smartphone market registered a modest growth rate of 16.4 percent during 2008-2009. In 2010, smartphone shipments grew at a very impressive rate (76.5 percent y-o-y) and were the growth driver for the rebound in 2010’s total handset shipments. This massive growth in smartphone shipments is a result of increasing demand for smartphones in the western markets of North America and Europe. Also, the emerging markets of Asia Pacific and Latin America are seeing rising smartphone demand, due to the wide availability of affordable smartphone devices and supported applications. The share of smartphones as a percentage of total worldwide handset shipments is showing an upward trend, as depicted in the next figure. Figure 22: Smartphone Shipments as a Percentage of Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Further recommended reading: Smartphone Futures 2011-2015 14.7% 23.1% 26.3% 29.5% 32.8% 36.1% 39.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F ShareofSmartphoneShipments (InPercent) Year
    • 26 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Mobile Infrastructure Market Overview After a tough 2009, the wireless infrastructure market rebounded in 2010. Total spend on mobile infrastructure equipment reached USD 54 billion in 2010. With both developed and developing economies moving towards advanced networks—3.5G and 4G including LTE and WiMAX deployments—the equipment spend is expected to increase over the coming few years. However, since the deployment cycle for 2G is approaching maturity, particularly in developed markets, equipment spend on 2G and 3G networks will start declining. Thus, in 2015, we anticipate a drop in total equipment spend as the equipment spend on 2G will primarily include network maintenance and upgrades only. Figure 23: Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F) 20 Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted The mobile market is transitioning from 2G to 3G and above technologies, impacting the overall infrastructure spend on GSM and CDMA networks. Impending LTE launches over the next few years will also drive the infrastructure market, particularly in the developed markets of Europe and North America. 20 Note: Mobile equipment spend does not include services and solutions expenditure. According to Portio estimates, mobile equipment spend currently forms nearly two-thirds of the total mobile infrastructure spend. Please also note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in November 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. 52.0 54.0 57.3 62.2 63.3 64.5 50.3 20 40 60 80 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F MobileEquipmentSpend (InUSDBillion) Year
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 27 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Market share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors The figure below highlights the market share of mobile infrastructure vendors at end-June 2010. Further recommended reading: Figure 24: Market Share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors (Q2 2010) Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Source: Portio Research Ltd. 33.0% 20.8% 10.4% 7.5% 3.2% 20.6% 4.5% Ericsson Nokia Siemens Alcatel-Lucent ZTE Motorola Huawei Others
    • 28 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Also available from Portio Research Limited Portio Research Ltd is a UK-based research company focussing on the mobile space, providing reports, handbooks, directories and database products. New and Best Selling Reports include: Smartphone Futures 2011-2015 Significant developments in the worldwide handset market over the past few years have radically altered the shape and future course of this industry. This essential new report examines the changing scenario of the mobile handset industry and the exciting emergence of the Smartphone segment, including the evolution of the mobile handset industry and its changing dynamics induced by the growth of smartphone sales. We also look at the value chain related to products and services pertaining to the smartphone market, and study key developments in the smartphone market, highlighting the repositioning of smartphone vendors with the market entry of challengers for Nokia and RIM, including Apple, HTC, and other vendors offering increasingly-popular Android-based devices. The report includes an overview of the major smartphone operating systems (OS) and the applications market, looking at App Stores and other factors affecting the overall development of the growing high-end handset market. Please click here for more details. Mobile Augmented Reality In the mobile applications market, augmented reality is emerging as a potential game- changer. Mobile AR can contribute to enhancements and innovations in many mobile application categories, and – in combination with powerful smartphones – will change how people interact with their surrounding environment. With interest in this exciting space intensifying, this concise new market brief provides an invaluable and timely introduction to a very promising emerging technology. Please click here for more details. Mobile Messaging Futures 2011-2015 The highly anticipated fifth edition of our best selling messaging report is now available to order. This new edition is packed with detailed market analysis, traffic and revenue forecasts and a brand new vendor survey. This massive 398-page market study gives you all the data you need for SMS, MMS, mobile e-mail and mobile IM markets worldwide, and includes a BONUS 26-slide Executive Summary presentation. With essential insight into a market that is forecast to be worth USD 335 billion by end-2015, this is one of the most detailed and popular reports ever written on the worldwide mobile messaging market. Please click here for more details.
    • © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 29 Mobile Factbook – February 2011 Mobile Applications Futures 2010-2015: Without doubt one of the hottest topics within the mobile space, the exciting worldwide mobile applications market is comprehensively assessed in this new market study. With detailed analysis and growth forecasts for mobile application users, downloads and revenues, this 121-page report examines the evolution, current state and future potential of mobile applications, and much more. This research also includes: key strategies adopted by app stores and associated business models to monetise the apps market; drivers and inhibitors in the uptake of mobile apps; supporting case studies and profiles of successful mobile apps and application stores; embedded adverts, in-app payments, the various types of mobile apps and their popularity, the value chain of mobile apps, and the important role of smartphones in the uptake of mobile apps. Looking beyond the hype surrounding mobile apps, this report reveals a worldwide market with legitimately huge potential for its various stakeholders to exploit, and which will generate revenues in excess of USD 23 billion by end-2015. Please click here for more details. LTE and the Road to 4G 2010-2015: With analysis and growth forecasts, this essential new 82-page study covers the current state of Long Term Evolution (LTE) at worldwide and regional levels, discusses the drivers and inhibitors for LTE growth, reviews the LTE network infrastructure vendor landscape, and examines the future outlook for this highly-promising 4G enabling technology. The report also includes analysis of the expected trends in technology adoption, the planned trials and deployments by MNOs worldwide, draws comparisons between LTE and WiMAX on several fronts, and much more. Please click here for more details. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Serving as an invaluable guide for those in and outside the mobile space to enable better understanding of the worldwide mobile market, this detailed and comprehensively updated new handbook offers you all the essential market data required for business strategy and planning purposes, including: in-depth subscriber growth forecasts for leading countries, subscriber figures for key network operators across all major geographies, market share data, quarterly handset shipment figures, handset and infrastructure vendor profiles, analysis of popular handsets/smartphones, ARPU data, churn figures and so much more. Other report features include an introduction with performance comparisons of mobile vs. other media and major industries, to demonstrate how massive mobile truly is, and briefings on the four major aspects of the mobile industry: subscribers, revenues, handsets and infrastructure. This essential 187-page market report will act as a touchstone to refer back to again and again for meetings, presentations and business plans. Please click here for more details.
    • 30 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Mobile Factbook – February 2011 If you have any questions or if we can be of any assistance to you, please contact us by e- mail: info@portioresearch.com Copyright 2011. Portio Research Limited 2011 www.portioresearch.com Africa and Middle East Mobile Opportunities 2010-2014: Packed-full of invaluable data, market sizing and growth forecasts, this must-have new study delivers vital insight into the exciting mobile markets of the AME region. With essential regional, country and operator-level analysis of this growing mobile space, the detailed report includes mobile subscriber, penetration, technology and messaging forecasts; as well as subscriber numbers, service revenues, market share and ARPU data, and strategies and developments of key mobile operators – plus so much more. With the AME mobile market now the subject of intense interest, this essential 96-page market report provides an understanding of the size, scope and major players of this changing mobile market. Please click here for more details. Mobile Payments 2010-2014: Examining the exciting worldwide mobile payments market, this essential new report delivers analysis of mobile payment services including in-app payments, mobile ticketing and mobile coupons, and identifies the opportunities in the mobile payments space. This invaluable research provides growth forecasts and market sizing; details the various types of mobile payments and different platforms they use; reveals the drivers and challenges affecting mobile payment development; appraises mobile payment business models and compares value chains; and offers supporting case studies and profiles of major markets, key players and successful mobile payment services. Please click here for more details. Strategies for Driving Mobile Data and Broadband Adoption: The latest report in our highly popular series analysing best practice go-to-market strategies for non-voice mobile services is now available to order. Loaded with valuable information that will help you understand how to develop class-leading mobile data services, this essential study examines mobile messaging, mobile broadband and mobile applications, and offers ‘best of breed’ case studies with clear and comprehensive summaries of the strategies used to effectively deliver those services to mobile consumers. This new study also features: revenue, user and technology forecasts; market sizing; key growth drivers; devices, smartphones, handsets and hardware; high speed network technologies and infrastructure deployments; worldwide, regional and company-level analysis; data plans and pricing, value chain analysis and business models; App stores and more. PLUS, buy this new report and you can also receive the previous report in this strategy series as a bonus, for FREE. Please click here for more details.