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The White Swan Book By Mr. Andres Agostini at www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini

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The White Swan's Beyond Eureka and Sputnik Moments: How To Fundamentally Cope With Corporate Litmus Tests and With The Impact of the Dramatic Highly Improbable And Succeed and Prevail Through …

The White Swan's Beyond Eureka and Sputnik Moments: How To Fundamentally Cope With Corporate Litmus Tests and With The Impact of the Dramatic Highly Improbable And Succeed and Prevail Through Transformative and Integrative Risk Management! [TREATISE EXCERPT]. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » — The Lifeboat Foundation Worldwide Ambassador —

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  • 1. 1 The White Swan's Beyond Eureka and Sputnik Moments: How To Fundamentally Cope With Corporate Litmus Tests and With The Impact of the Dramatic Highly Improbable And Succeed and Prevail Through Transformative and Integrative Risk Management! [TREATISE EXCERPT]. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » — The Worldwide Ambassador at the Lifeboat Foundation — (An Independent, Solemn, Most-Thorough and Copyrighted Answer. Independence, solemnity, thoroughness, detail, granularity of details, accuracy and rigor, hereunder, will be then redefined by several orders of nonlinear magnitude and without a fail). By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 2. 2 To Nora, my mother, who rendered me with the definitiveness to seek the forethoughts to outsmart any impending demand and other developments. To Francisco, my father: There is no one who has taught me better. There is no one I regard most highly. It is my greatest fortune to be his son. He endowed me with the Agostini family's charter, “…Study and, when grown up, you will neither be the tyrants' toy, nor the passions' servile slave…” I never enjoyed a “...Mom...”, but enjoyed a gargantuan Mother, Father, Grandparents and Forbears. WHAT IS A WHITE SWAN, COUNTERMEASSURING THE BLACK SWAN? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 3. 3 IN CORPORATE SETTINGS, IS THERE AN OUTRIGHT COUNTERMEASSURING WHITE SWAN TO THE BLACK SWAN? The White Swan Proven Idea (through omniscient-truthful evidences and real-world measurable and repeatable outcomes, acquired and audited by own corporations' applied managing scientists) — only concerning organizations of a rational-type structure such as corporations, start-ups by entrepreneurs, coalitions, consortia, joint ventures, governments, non-governmental organizations, international organizations, supranational organizations, armed forces, charities, not-for-profit corporations, partnerships, cooperatives, universities, various types of political organizations, semi- public-agencies, hybrid organizations (acting in public and private sectors), voluntary By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 4. 4 associations, unions, clubs and religious organizations — puts forward that, although and sometimes disproportionately high-profile, hard-to-predict, persistently threatening and disruptive, as well as rare events are mostly unpredictable, yet a visionary and savvy organization can, anyway, make unprecedented and auspicious early-on preparations to address huge potential disruptions and downside futures through (beforehand) « ...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management ...» interdisciplinary problem-solving and decision- making interdisciplinary methodology, also known as TAIRM. White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management interdisciplinary methodology is a fancy name for a manager's By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 5. 5 toolkit for continuously securing lucrative success. Back to the White Swan hardcore: By “...corporate ...” and “...corporations...” I mean to state immeasurable large global for- lucre corporations whose outputted services and products are mostly manufactured tangibles. A good brief example of what I do NOT mean by the aforementioned terms are, for instance, Investment Banks or Stock-Market Traders. I am only interested in Fortune-7 Corporations (sic). By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 6. 6 WHITE SWAN AND TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT ARE NEVER INTO: (I.-) Divination, (II.-) Soothsaying, (III.-) Foretelling, (IV.-) Predictioneering, (V.-) Futurism, (VI.-) Futurity, (VII.-) Futilitarianism, (VIII.-) Hunches-telling, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 7. 7 (IX.-) First-Guessing, (X.-) Second-Guessing, . (XI.-) Fortunetelling, and (XII.-) Prophesying. To this purpose and given to me by a Sephardi Hebrew, an Arab adage argues, “... that who foretells the future correctly lies even if he is telling the truth ...” WHITE SWAN AND TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT ARE ONLY INTO SCIENTIFIC FUTURING AND OTHER PROPRIETARY AMENITIES, BETTER EXPLAINED BELOW. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 8. 8 Back to the White Swan hardcore: White Swan and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management interdisciplinary methodology enthusiastically exploits every aspect, facet and phase of negative and positive risks and downside and upside futures, to further and continuously outright sequester continuous and sustainable lucre, including the following defined amenities. With the sponsorship of Ancient Greek and Modern Greek, each amenity will be thereby numbered and/or lettered: Alpha.- Serendipity (The faculty of making fortunate technological breakthroughs and scientific discoveries and innovation developments by accident, as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST- RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 9. 9 in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Beta.- Pseudo-Serendipity (The faculty of making fortunate technological breakthroughs and scientific discoveries and innovation development by quasi-accident, as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST- RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Gamma.- Randomness (Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events. Randomness suggests a non-order or non- coherence in a sequence of symbols or steps, such that there is no intelligible pattern or combination, as a result of corporate By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 10. 10 manager's perpetual MOST-RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Delta.- Pseudo-Randomness (Pseudo- Randomness means quasi-lacking of pattern or quasi-predictability in events. Pseudo- Randomness suggests a quasi-non-order or quasi-non-coherence in a sequence of symbols or steps, such that there is no intelligible pattern or combination, as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST- RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 11. 11 Epsilon.- Fuzzy Logic: (A form of algebra employing a range of values from "true" to "false" that is used in decision-making with imprecise data, as in artificial intelligence systems, as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST-RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Zeta.- Pseudo-Fuzzy Logic: (A form of algebra employing a range of values from quasi-"true" to quasi-"false" that is used in decision- making with quasi-imprecise data, as in artificial intelligence systems, as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST- RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 12. 12 ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Eta.- Fortuitousness (Unexpected and casually happening[s], as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST-RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Theta.- Pseudo-fortuitousness (quasi- unexpected and quasi-casually happening[s], as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST-RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 13. 13 Iota.- Recursiveness (pertaining to or using a rule or procedure that can be applied repeatedly, as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST-RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Kappa.- Pseudo-recusriveness (quasi- pertaining to or using a rule or procedure that can be applied repeatedly, as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST- RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Lambda.- Haphazardness (the quality of lacking any predictable order or plan, as a By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 14. 14 result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST-RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Mu.- Pseudo-Haphazardness (the quality of quasi-lacking any predictable order or plan, as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST-RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Nu.- Mishaps (an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another, as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST- By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 15. 15 RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Xi.- Pseudo-Mishaps (a quasi-unknown and quasi-unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another, as a result of corporate manager's perpetual MOST-RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and (c) recondite spheres and (d) hermetic theater of operations). Back to the White Swan hardcore: White Swan — Early Praise: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 16. 16 By The University of Texas at Austin's Most Honorable and Respected: (i) Alumnus and (ii) The University of Arkansas at Little Rock's Professor and (iii) The Author of “...The Human Race to the Future: What Could Happen — and What to Do ...” — By Daniel Berleant, PhD.: “... You may have heard of the '...black swan...' concept. Now there is the White Swan, a name for an '...interdisciplinary methodology...' of '...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...' This is offered by Mr. Andres Agostini and his work is a creative approach that can help organizations large and small prepare for the future. Of course the future has risks — and opportunities — because of it's intrinsic property of uncertainty and unpredictability. To best mitigate the downside risks and leverage By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 17. 17 the upside opportunities, flexible thinking is required. FOR EXAMPLE, IT IS USEFUL TO VIEW PROBLEMS FROM MULTIPLE DIFFERENT POINTS OF VIEW. THIS TASK IS BOTH IMPORTANT AND NONTRIVIAL. TO MAKE IT HAPPEN, AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH IS IMPORTANT. The hope is to manage the multiple uncertainties (risks and opportunities) by integrating an array of insights and resources. A successful result can indeed be transformative. Thank you Mr. Agostini for contributing this methodology with its pathway to! Ward solutions of originality and significance .... It is a pleasure to have the opportunity to work with Andres Agostini on a technology foresight related project. Mr. Agostini is a great source of stimulating and interesting ideas. His high energy level makes working with him an efficient way to leverage By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 18. 18 activities. Andres is invaluable in providing an international dimension to the project which would otherwise be unavailable. I absolutely recommend Andres Agostini as a colleague and project team partner! ...” By Washington D.C. Metro Area (Industry and Military)'s Deputy Director, National Maritime Intelligence-Integration Office (NMIO), Most Honorable Mr. Jose Nieves: “… Mr. Agostini has a broad intellectual background and technological understanding providing him the ability to see issues from a very different perspective than most people, thus allowing him to see alternate futures, confront challenges head on, and solve complex problems through methodical and sequential processes. Mr. Agostini’s White Swan Book addresses the very issue of By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 19. 19 alternatives to current interdisciplinary approach. The understanding of alternative futures is critical to the success of organizations. Further, Mr. Agostini’s deep understanding of alternative futures and technological progression is a most necessary skill in our nation’s military and intelligence community’s ability to predict and solve future threats and see future opportunities to exploit. Separately, Mr. Agostini’s focus on transformative and integrative risk management to prevent technological surprise was, is, and will remain relevant into the future ...” By Canadian Space Agency's Dr. Narasimha Bhashyam DSc. (Toronto, Ontario, Canada): “... Agostini's book White Swan presents a refreshingly a path-breaking novel approach in By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 20. 20 the highly complex area of risk management which often overwhelms senior management in policy and strategy formulations … the presentation is in well integrated problem- solving interdisciplinary approach makes it a manual for optimal risk management in very challenging operational environment … THE BOOK WILL BE VERY USEFUL AND HANDY SPECIALLY FOR THOSE HANDLING PROJECTS IN SPACE AND AERONAUTICS … I will very warmly recommend this book to all practicing managers and teachers in management may like to use this book for course in risk management ...” By USA's Austin, Texas Area's Mr. Steve Pearson (CEO of The Pearson Strategy Group): By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 21. 21 “ … The White Swan is very interesting, Andres! Thank you for putting so much thought into this subject for the benefit of all. Preparing for the future isn't just looking into a crystal ball, it involves using many existing and varying resources. This also includes the involvement of experienced and knowledgeable people looking for trends and comparisons that can be extrapolated and used to define future directions while minimizing risk. Organizations should quickly transform their processes to accommodate for this with the only variable being how heavily their resources are invested according to the amount of risk involved and resources available. In general, most organizations are likely underestimate their level of risk and it is highly recommended that they consult with Mr. Agostini, an expert in his field ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 22. 22 By USA's Greater Los Angeles Management and Corporate Strategy Consultant Mr. William Hultquist: “... Mr. Andres Agostini is one of the most honorable and fearless original thinkers I have ever had the pleasure to know. Through his thirty-three-plus years of commitment to the science of transformative and integrative risk management he has become one of the pioneers in this fledgling field of predictive science. Being a pioneer and thought leader requires enormous self confidence and dedication. Andres Agostini has prepared himself for his auspiciously spectacular career with diligent studies of the truth and meaning behind major shifts and technological changes in the world’s consciousness infrastructure …. The deeper one travels in understanding an issue or trend, the clearer the interpretive By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 23. 23 ability of the observer becomes, however, this is easier said than done. I believe Mr. Agostini is capable of delivering his interpretive predictions because of his unfailing commitment to his own brand of rugged personal individualism. In other words, he is relentless in his pursuit of the truth in all matters and does not allow others’ perceptions to sway his resolve. Therefore, his findings and conclusions have the potential to provide unique substantive impactful solutions and outcomes on the lives of individuals, organizations, communities and countries …. The White Swan project demonstrates that unpredictability occurs as a consequence of not having considered issues beyond what the superficial mind reports to us. Mr. Agostini through his years of relentless research and analysis at mind-boggling levels of detail in scientific, economic and societal By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 24. 24 involvement exercises profound wisdom in penetrating the causative issues behind events and thereby being able to extrapolate likely scenarios from the data …. Major corporations, organizations, governments and their leaders consult with Mr. Agostini because of his no nonsense view of trends. You can count on receiving his absolute uncompromising opinion on the issues you are concerned with and you can take them to the bank ...” By USA's Washington D.C. Mr. Glenn Alpert: “...'...The future belongs not to those who possess a crystal ball, but those willing to challenge the biases and prejudices of the ‘establishment ….' ….Not very many people want to challenge the establishment out of fear or ridicule. Unfortunately, new By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 25. 25 technologies and new philosophies are not created from older ways of thinking …. To speak about Mr. Agostini's concept of the White Swan Treatise — These methods allow for an organization to plan for optimal futures, rather than leave events to chance. Mr. Agostini is an expert in the domain of Scientific Futuring, and can provide thought leadership and solutions for real-world problems that organizations face in this area ...” By USA's Manhattan's Mr. Joel Elveson: “ … Mr. Andres Agostini's brilliance is well documented …. In the field of insurance, risk management, etc. Mr. Agostini combines critical thinking with multiple areas of experience using a variety of platforms. His ethics are beyond question. Mr. Agostini By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 26. 26 provides solutions to problems others would not even begin to tackle …. Andres Agostini is one of the brightest minds I have ever encountered. Mr. Agostini possesses a dearth of expertise and experience in numerous fields. There is no task or endeavor that Mr. Agostini cannot successfully undertake and complete with ease. I would highly recommend that in the numerous areas that Mr. Agostini has worked in that his expertise be fully utilized. His thought processes are far superior to anybody I have ever met or that you will ever meet. Thank you ...” By Montreal's Mr. Claude Emond, BEng, MEng, MBA, rmc, CD: “... Mr. Agostini makes very clearly his point about the need to have better alternatives to current «insurance-based risk management» By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 27. 27 approaches, these failing lamentably to provide organizations with proactive, agile plans to face current and future opportunities and threats to continue to thrive and achieve long term sustainability. He also offers, with his White Swan metaphor, the path to better forecasting and proactivity: his Transformative and Integrative Risk Management interdisciplinary methodology. This methodology being the fruit of real time applications and demonstrated successes on many very complex organizational environments, I am confident that it can help any organization face the current turbulent times and its future evolutions with more certainty and agility in the face of permanent change. I particularly liked his rendering and interpretation of the Deng Xiaoping’s quote: ' … It doesn’t matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice …', because By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 28. 28 in our particular turbulent times, the white cat (swan) will be the one that can catch the mice. Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a real interdisciplinary systems approach, ensuring a better, more complete (if not always completely omniscient) , look at all future possibilities and resulting in better organizational actions in the present, and superior agile plans for the future …. I am privileged to have had the chance to read this abstract of Mr. Agostini coming book and I am looking forward to the unabridged version. I am also confident that the organizations that will use his Transformative and Integrative Risk Management interdisciplinary methodology will continue to lead their fields of activities, remain sustainable and prosper for a long time to come. I am also sure that the organisations experimenting difficulties right now have a By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 29. 29 better chance to find the path to renewed organizational health and prosperity using the proactive approaches inherent to Transformative and Integrative Risk Management ...” By USA' California's Mrs. Peggy Leyva Conley: "...Andres, Is a World leader as an Analytical Manager and Consultant who has worked in various sectors consisting of applying his vast White Swan knowledge, and skills. This includes Fortune 500 Companies who have hired him as an Adviser, Planner and Futurist who can shed his foresight to help determine where a Company should be driven to become Successful in the marketplace. As a Professional he is highly valuable when researching and using strategic plans to By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 30. 30 Educate Corporations how to become prosperous..." By United Kingdom’s Dr. Ann Shaw, M.D.: "…I am in awe of Andy for many reasons. Not only am I impressed with his business and management practical approach, vast knowledge and professionalism in current high-tech and concerning future technologies, but as a unique and very valuable human being…With extensive work based on 30-plus years of corporate experience, Andy has completed his current treatise, 'White Swan'. He has managed to incorporate his wealth of knowledge and experience to address the threats and opportunities and benefits so that incumbents gain augmented insight about what greatly impacts the practices by change managers, leaders, educators, researchers, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 31. 31 scholars, entrepreneurs, advanced students and responsible citizens, aiming to make a difference for a better yet challenging world… With minuteness, he explores deep reflections, initiatives, notions and ideas that may have been long ignored, under-estimated and misunderstood. 'White Swan' is an interesting, deep and comprehensive exploration that allows the reader to freely come to his/her own conclusions. He has a dynamic and deep mind, and is gifted with a true art of expression for all he feels…” By USA's Miami's Dr. David Burkart, PhD. at "...I know Andres Agostini to be one of the most astute and informed advisers to government and private sector businesses and NGO's working today. He has a huge knowledge base and an impressive number of By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 32. 32 contacts and sources....His positive outlook, energetic enthusiasm and unfailing courtesy and respect for others is inspirational and motivational. His forecasting skills and advice are wisely sought by many in high places and appreciated by all those who benefit from his generosity....Andres is a rare example of a true polymath in this day of specialization. His incisive intellect is well balanced by his social skills and personal integrity. I can recommend him without reservation for any organization that is in need of expert counsel at the highest level..." By Italy's Dr. Claudio Mantovani M.D.: “... This book reflects Mr. Agostini definitely great preparation but especially the heart of Mr. Agostini. Heart that Mr. Agostini crosses By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 33. 33 every day and in every work both literary and technical ...” By São Paulo, Brazil's Ms. Giselle Cury: “... An exceptional source of deep insight into the contemporary intricacies of an organization, a delightful invitation to dip into the author’s multifaceted analysis of such wonderful, although complex entity. The absorption of Mr. Andres Agostini’s 'White Swan' concepts is not only highly recommended, but also a condition sine qua non for organizations around the world to be on top of their businesses. Simply fantastic! ...” By USA's Tampa's Mr. Dan Aduito: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 34. 34 “ … Andres Agostini is always willing to lend his wisdom and support to those of us who may not be scientists however I see Mr. Agostini as a bridge and interpreter of the sciences to the multitude of other specialists in business, commerce and industry …. A rare man with the capacity to draw all who come near, closer to the leading edges of scientific analysis and predictability based upon fact as opposed to conjecture and pontification …. I consider it an honor to call Mr. Agostini my friend and translator of cosmic relationships of all matter ...” By USA's Las Vegas' Mr. Bob Smith: “... I find the writings associated with White Swan to be delightfully thought-provoking and offer a clever and insightful juxtaposition to the Black Swan concept. It provides balance in By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 35. 35 the flow of the topic and brings a rich new set of useful distinction to consider …. I think this will offer elements to a full and complete range of thinking that holds two ends of the same line of thinking. The Swans become bookends to an elegant body of thinking and consideration on how to '...be ...' in the midst of the two influences …. I enjoy the additional thinking that Andres has brought forward and I appreciate the visit to the fundamentals of thinking in so many areas that affect the true productivity of business and the impact on people and results ...” By USA's Greater New York City Area's Ms. Tamara Beck: “...Andres, as always a very thorough and insightful view of things as they are and are going to be! ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 36. 36 By Manhattan's Mr. Edward Andron, ACom, ARM, RAM, CNE, NYU Fellow: "...I have known Andres for approximately two years and found him to be an outstanding intellectual .... He seeks answers to the most complex and confounding problems in many industries and always finds an answer .... Andres is engaging, insightful, and creative …. He is quite literally a walking encyclopedia and veritable cornucopia of wisdom on any subject or any industry .... I highly recommend him to White Swan, any think tank, corporation, or governmental agency looking for a sage whose prescient wisdom is both accurate and ahead of his time .... He is an incalculable asset, but more importantly, a great human being I am proud to call my friend! ..." By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 37. 37 By USA's Greater Los Angeles Area's Mr. Terry Tucker: “... Mr. Agostini provides a valuable look, and, provides valuable contributions to 'Red Teaming' and decision analysis planning. Modern Strategy and White Swans are also about the social dynamics, which many analysts neglect. Andres covers this nicely ...” By Greater Minneapolis-Saint Paul Area Business' Mr. John Lucic: “ … Mr. Agostini has proven to be one of the most qualified and ethics driven business consultants I have recommended to our clients. He truly cares for success of his clients and is an asset to any business that By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 38. 38 would choose to utilize his expertise. Good luck on your White Swan project ...” By USA's New York Area Ms. Sonny Cardinal: " ... White Swan's Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a tremendously comprehensive prospecting tool that I will be sure to reference in the future. Great work! …" By Berlin's Mr. Steffen D. Bieser “... There are too many superstitions in the world of trade, commerce and management. People embrace too many half truths. This is wrong and it does not help to understand a complicated world. The White Swan unmasks a large number of global lies. There was about time for its author to tell it better ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 39. 39 By Mexico's Ms. Orenda Urbano Hernández: “... The sequence of your work in White Swan seems like the chronicle of the different layers of organizational systems. It express the natural course of events and generates the idea that by comprehending these processes human possess tools of assertiveness to generate intuitive approach to solve challenges or to manufacture an intelligent and generous reality ...” By Iran's Industrial Engineer Ms. Pegah Nikzat: “ … As a Futurist and Industrial Engineer I am greatly involved with many disciplines, techniques, research and reading. The White Swan treatise, by Mr. Andres Agostini, is By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 40. 40 correct and a technological breakthrough and scientific discovery in itself, coming forward in the most expected and needed moment. Mr. Agostini’s unprecedented abilities to coalesce Scientific Futuring with Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a methodological novelty hugely embraced by the international community of Industrial Engineers. As he states, White Swan is not only about holding and futilely entertaining abstracts notions that do not have an instrumental and decisive practical application is enhancing corporation’s astute choice- making process. From this point onward I will be requesting my clients and customers to seriously study the White Swan as I am definitively considering forthcoming mutually- beneficial teaming arrangement with Mr. Agostini toward joint professional consulting services ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 41. 41 By South Africa's Mr. Anton van den Berg: “... As always, Mr. Andres Agostini cuts to the heart of the matter. The abundance of experience and knowledge required to achieve a break-through thought like this is staggering. I am glad that my life allowed me to experience this brilliant minds and exceptional thoughts that it produced. I’m grateful that he is able to articulate his thoughts in a way that we can absorb it. Thank you Andres!!!! ...” By India's Civil Engineer Mr. GramaKeshava Ananthram: “...White Swan; yes White Swan !! In Sanskrit‚ we have an adage-HAMSA KSHEERA NYAYAM— meaning Swan and the Milk By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 42. 42 Example ! What does this mean? It is believed that Swan accepts milk portion only from out of the mixture of Milk and Water ! I am honoured to compare this Vedic Analogy with Andres Agostini's WHITE SWAN — I do not know whether Andres kept this Vedic term. While titling his Great foreseeing of the Future ! Needless to say that Andres is a foreseer; DRASHTARA ! He illumines the present science and technology and eighteens the future Metascale heights , yet he says that he does not know what could be in 2045 ! The universe is a legendary verse and I must admit with my limited knowledge of the past to future, the evolution is the greatest revolution in all aspects ; known becomes non existent and unknown becomes the most adored and preferred tool of the present tool for affluence in scientific and technological fast tracks ! I admire Andres at every By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 43. 43 meticulous step in his narration citing and acknowledging his indebtedness to his peers ! My knowledge of Science and technology is limited to appreciation of the facts of the future ! I am no match to Andres Agostini’s knowledge, but have the firm belief that Andres Agostini’s forethoughts of the future are the as true as Sun and Moon ! …. It is a prevailed I casually came across this page and must say I am a gainer in knowledge! …. There is ignorance in knowledge and so too knowledge in ignorance because the more one learns; much more he/she feels more he/she must learn !.... People like Andres Agostini are always sought after to educate the thirsty for knowledge of the futuristic developments ! ...” By USA, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Ms. Annie (xiao xuan) Liu: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 44. 44 "... In the U.S. and China there is a great fervor about Mr. Andres Agostini's White Swan. I love this amazing read and how Andres explains every difficult thing with nice definitions and real examples. I also love the unprecedented level of candor by the White Swan. I find interesting that this book is about telling the truth and not to sugar-coat difficult realities while giving easy ideas about how to fix challenges and complications. I am into teaching people how to be successful in their professional and personal lives. As a process of that I will have my folks consider the White Swan because it is a great tool to make Success happen ..." By Israel's Mr. Nachum Katz: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 45. 45 “ … I greatly enjoyed this read, and found it very helpful and eye opening …. Most of all I find the remarks about preparing to the future and making it happen based on changing ideas, thoughts, concepts, preparing a new vision that pushes us all forward, not based on the past ...” By USA's Tampa's Mrs. Maria Carolina Sisiruca: “... Mr. Agostini …. I can profess the book to be a great revelation on business concepts that reach beyond any conventional treatise. Just reading the reviews above from the highest academic members of the business world should be proof enough of the great business work that it is ...” Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 46. 46 A Quick Message from India: An Indian Civil Engineer and Mystic argues and as per own account, “... In Sanskrit the Vedantic Sages call Andres a «... DRASHTARA ...» and as such he is set out to re-channelize the R&D&I effort's direction and pathway by applied scientists in dire straits, thus re-illuminating them in the unaccounted-for dynamic driving forces in order for scientists to return to the right path ...” An Indian Yogi also called Andres, some years ago, “...Auspiciousness...” Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 47. 47 What is the White Swan Target? In a nutshell: (A.-) Most Advanced Management (chiefly by applied Scientific Method), and (B.-) Most Exponential Dynamic Driving Forces. And in achieving “A.-” and “B.-” above, again and again, thoroughness and completeness will be redefined by several nonlinear orders of geometrical magnitude. Back to the White Swan hardcore: Who is the White Swan Audience? 1.- Mr. David Shaw, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 48. 48 2.- Drew, 3.- Andy, 4.- Pervasive Technologists and Scientists, 5.- Extremely radiant Corporation's Officers, 6.- Forcefully irradiant Management Practitioners, Business Owners and Serious Entrepreneurs, 7.- People who love K.I.S.S., Keep It Scientific, Savant. And that impiously reject K.I.S.S.: Keep It Simple, Stupid, and 8.- Others. If you don't like strongest and most subtle thinking, the White Swan is never for you. Back to the White Swan hardcore: THE POWER OF GRANDIOSE IDEAS …. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 49. 49 Something that I relentlessly embrace at all times. “...Google's Chief Engineer Officer Dr. Raymond Kurzweil's, with 19 doctoral degrees, relatives escaped the Holocaust '... BECAUSE THEY USED THEIR MINDS. THAT'S ACTUALLY THE PHILOSOPHY OF MY FAMILY …. THE POWER OF HUMAN IDEAS. I remember my grandfather coming back from his first return visit to Europe. I was seven and he told me he'd been given the opportunity to handle — with his own hands — original documents by LEONARDO DA VINCI. HE TALKED ABOUT IT IN VERY REVERENTIAL TERMS, LIKE THESE WERE SACRED DOCUMENTS. But they weren't handed down to us by God. They were created by a guy, a person. A SINGLE HUMAN HAD BEEN VERY INFLUENTIAL By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 50. 50 AND HAD CHANGED THE WORLD. THE MESSAGE WAS THAT HUMAN IDEAS CHANGED THE WORLD. AND THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT COULD CHANGE THE WORLD ...” [231] Back to the White Swan hardcore: A NOTICE TO CORPORATIONS I OF IV: My White Swan Tranformative and Integrative Risk Management's Corporate Clients will NEVER get Sputnik Moments (sic.). A NOTICE TO CORPORATIONS II OF IV: My White Swan Tranformative and Integrative Risk Management's Corporate Clients will get a spelled-out of the totality of their upcoming: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 51. 51 (A.-) Positive Risks, (B.-) Negative Risks, (C.-) Upside Futures, (D.-) Downside Futures, (E.-) Positive and Upside Dynamic Driving Forces, (F.-) Negative and Downside Dynamic Driving Forces, (G.-) Positive and Upside Counter-Dynamic Driving Forces, and (H.-) Negative and Downside Counter- Dynamic Driving Forces. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 52. 52 Items A, B, C, D, E, F, G and H aforementioned will be infinitely up-exploited and outsmarted, in order to augment Corporation’s hyperbolic cash sequestration and its SUSTANIABILITY within SUCCESS and PREVAIL, regardless of the Uncharted Waters and Territories. My amazing mother used to say, “...Andres, that who seeks it is the one who finds it...” Incidentally: DARPA has a nice adage: “ ...If you are not failing frequently, you are not succeeding enough ...” And that can be further clarified and enhanced by: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 53. 53 “ ...If you are not failing frequently [trough pervasive and forceful, yet well-directed error- and-trial real-life experiments to avoid the emergence of Black Swans], you are not succeeding enough [and, therefore, you are not securing the White Swan that will ascertain that your corporation stays lucrative, grows fiscally sound and thrives though any rogue swirl of change]...” Brackets are of the author. Back to the White Swan hardcore: A NOTICE TO CORPORATIONS III OF IV: Corporate Chairpersons and CEOs MUST NEVER accept spoken interviews and presentations and other ORAL EXCHANGES, UNLESS and UNLESS alone, within the By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 54. 54 ensuing 24-hours, said Chairpersons and CEOs get a most solid, thorough, complete and well-written hard-copied material of the aforementioned: spoken interviews and presentations and other ORAL EXCHANGES. A NOTICE TO CORPORATIONS IV OF IV: Only my Corporate Clients and Customers will get, through White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management the following: (1.-) Extremely-detailed Predictions for the Short-, Mid- and Long-term. (2.-) Most Robust and Detailed Operationalized Plans to Lucre and Profit from (1.-) above. Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 55. 55 This is not done to capture the legally-binding “...trails...” of their verbal output, but to hold them extremely responsible in everything said by executives to Chairpersons and CEOs. This author is not going to elaborate in the sine qua non instrumentality of the bridged version. That would take other tome. Any serious Corporation is so when everything spoken, including “...hello...”, is extremely documented, both digitally and physically. I like talking but once the fundamentals HAVE BEEN FIRST dealt with in abundant writing. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 56. 56 I reject professionals, executives, Chairpersons and CEOs who are not into detailed writing. Back to the White Swan hardcore: Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a multifarious methodology. The reader has been warned. This is a “...brute force...” and “ ...subtle force...” problem-solving and decision-making interdisciplinary approach. Through thorough application of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmanagement), White Swan can be hereunder explained abundantly. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 57. 57 Let us briefly define Eureka Moment and Sputnik Moment now: “ … The Eureka Moment, also known as the '...Aha! Moment ...', refers to the common human experience of suddenly understanding a previously incomprehensible problem or concept. The Eureka effect is named after the myth that the Greek polymath Archimedes, having discovered how to measure the volume of an irregular object, leaped out of a public bath, and ran home naked shouting 'eureka' (I found it) ...” And: “ … The Sputnik Moment is point in time in which a country or a society, in particular the U.S., realizes that it needs to catch up with the apparent technological and scientific gap that By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 58. 58 exists between it and some other superpower, increasing its investment efforts into education and innovative R&D ...” And Litmus Test: “... a critical indication of future success or failure ...” Coming Back to the White Swan hardcore: The author (a manager, consultant, researcher and strategist into beyond- insurance risk management and scientific futuring) has a sufficient tangible number of unimpeachable actual corporate cases, attained through 33-year-plus of in-the-field professional experience, of outright success fundamentally coping with disproportionately high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 59. 59 Back to the White Swan hardcore: A thing or two about the word: “...Experience...” Experience (optimal and correct) Vs. “...Previous Experience...” (totally wrong). Check it out: If you Google Previous Experience, you will get about: 5,120,000 results. “...Previous Experience...” is outright flaw since Plain-Vanilla-Per-Se Experience is always ACHIEVED AND SEQUESTERED in the Past and not always exploited in the Present and Future. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 60. 60 Just, use “...Experience...” and never “...Previous Experience...” The White Swan hardcore now starts: THIS WORK ADDRESSES ORGANIZATIONAL SETTINGS (RATIONAL- TYPE ONES) ONLY, NEVER PROFESSIONAL OR PERSONAL ENVIRONMENTS AT ALL. On October 09, 2013 I was asked a simple yet intriguing question at the right time and place. Without any direct or indirect intent, such a simple query gave birth to the White Swan. And that query's momentum gained infinite more critical mass when San Diego University Mathematics Professor Vernor Vinge, PhD, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 61. 61 suggested and reminded, via a placid e-mail, of the reading of the Black Swan, which I did. ERGO: A management consultant in Peterborough, United Kingdom presented this query to me, the commencing co-author. His name is David Shaw. [228]. SYNTHESIS: Questions and matters to be randomly addressed here include: 1.- What is change? 2.- What is management? 3.- What is change management? 4.- Why present-day age is now different? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 62. 62 5.- What is the historic perspective applied to current management? 6.- What is it meant by Dynamic Driving Forces? 7.- What is a risk, both positive and negative? 8.- What are futures, both upside and downside? 9.- What is risk management? 10.- What is risk unmanagement? 11.- What is a White Swan? 12.- What is a Eureka Moment? 13.- What is a Sputnik Moment? 14.- What is a leader and a manager? 15.- How does one define technology? 16.- What is insurance? 17.- What is beyond-insurance risk management? 17.- What is Transformative and Integrative Risk Management? 18.- What is scientific futuring? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 63. 63 19.- What is scenario-planning methodology? 20.- How Quality Assurance and Continuous Improvement Don't Equate to Risk Management? 21.- Practically, How do managers and entrepreneurs achieve sustainable success? 22.- What is non-theological applied omniscience? 23.- What is Organizational Integral Protection? 24.- Common Sense Versus Scientific Knowledge? 25.- Out-Of-The-Box Thinking versus Disruptional Creative Thinking (Meaning: The Strong-Sense Critico-Creative One)? 26.- What is the current and rampant progression of science and technology? 27.- Solving persistently grave organizational problems through Rocket Science? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 64. 64 28.- What is retrospection and what is prospection? 29.- Quantitative Analyzes Versus Qualitative Analyzes? 30.- How far can we get with algorithm-based calculations of risks and futures? 31.- What is strategy and its limitations? 32.- What are new management skills to be developed in the as-of-now future? 33.- What are problem-solving approaches for? 34.- What are adversarial truths and technical truths? 35.- The Technological Singularity Versus the Disruptional Singularity? 36.- How NASA, DARPA and Royal Dutch Shell are redefining management? 37.- What is Space-Age Risk Management? 38.- What are the name of the reputable organizations instituting all of the above? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 65. 65 39.-In the twentieth-one century, How managers must be in order to succeed? 40.- What is Computronium? 41.- What is Multiverse? 42.- What is Omniverse? 43.- What is a Litmus Test? 44.- What and How to Study? 45.- Forthcoming as-per-now times will be? 46.- Plausabilities, as of today? 47.- The World's Most-Cherished and Most- Uncherished Black Swans that will never happen? 48.- White Swan Tranformative and Integrative Risk Management Problem- Solving Methodology Encompasses? 49.- A Quick Message from India. 50.- Oxford University's Faculty of Philosophy Professor Nick Bostrom on the Disruptional Singularity. 51.- What is the Chief Polymath Officer? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 66. 66 52.- Google, Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft and Oracle defined both by Wikipedia and the White Swan? 53.- What did CEOs from ExxonMobil, Conoco, Chevron, Phillips Petroleum, Statoil (Scandinavia), Italy's ENI and Wilpro Energy Services (U.S.) tell Andres? 54.- A Little Actual Fun Story with World's #2 Petroleum Corp Chairman and CEO? 55.- Andres goes to the Massachusetts Board Room with the 90-Million-Dollar Chairman and CEO? 56.- U.S. President George Herbert Walker Bush's (41st U.S. president) Ambassador and Andres Agostini? 57.- If you country is flooded with unemployment, poverty, public protests and a promissory future of outright failure? Why? 58.- IN WHAT ARE GOOGLE, FACEBOOK, IBM, APPLE AND MICROSOFT FOCUSING By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 67. 67 IN ORDER TO REVERSE-ENGINEER THE HUMAN BIOLOGICAL MIND? 59.- The most serious scientific and noted establishment of the U.S. uses this language priority ... 60 .- What is the White Swan Target? 61.- Who is the White Swan Audience? 62.- THE POWER OF GRANDIOSE IDEAS …. 63.- Experience (optimal and correct) Vs. “...Previous Experience...” (totally wrong)? 64.- To see what Germany and China are doing about manufacturing …. 65.- AS PER NOBEL PHYSICS PRIZE LAUREATE DR. STEPHEN HAWKING WARNS …. Back to the White Swan hardcore: David's question was then exactly, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 68. 68 "...Andres, from your work on the future which management skills need to be developed? Classically the management role is about planning, organizing, leading and controlling. With the changes coming in the future, what's your view on how this management mix needs to change and adapt? … " Probably, and thanks to the preceding question, the interview or exchange has hereby grown into a copyrighted treatise. A treatise, not a book, but a beta treatise, not an alpha treatise yet. A lady by the name of Lisa sent me an e-mail, indicating: “...You have given David a good academic lecture and scholarship …” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 69. 69 Now you have such a bridged volume. Bridged volume does never equate to the unabridged treatise (A systematic, usually extensive clear-eyed-ly written discourse on a multi-fold subject matter expertises.), illustrated version, containing additional: facts, stats, drawings, mind-mappings, pictorials, graphics, tables, PERTs (Program Evaluation and Review Techniques), CPMs (Critical Path Method Techniques), SWOTs (A SWOT analysis — alternatively SWOT matrix — is a structured planning method used to evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats involved in a project or in a business venture), sketches, cartoons, slides, pictures, photos, videos and other resources. The unabridged and illustrated tome is awaiting a publisher to come forward and do the proper deed. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 70. 70 NOTA BENE: If you are serious and you mean lucratively handsome business for you and me, THE ONE AND ONLY CV (Curriculum Vitae) that I am going to give you is the Present Treatise Excerpt. Alternative, you are extremely welcome to have access to my (i) Lifeboat Foundation Professional Profile and (ii) LinkedIn Professional Profile at: http://lifeboat.com/ex/bios.andres.agostini http://www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 71. 71 WHITE SAWN'S UNABRIDGED AND ILLUSTRATED TREATISE ABOUT EVERY MOST-CHERISHED AND MOST-UN- CHERISHED BLACK SWAN THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN IN THE WORLD. Back to the White Swan hardcore: If this were a course, it would indeed rather be a “... crash course ...” Some could correctly argue that this is an intense treatise given with kindness. It is both intense and lucid. Worry not, you are all set out to have lavish educational fun. Incidentally: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 72. 72 This proprietary treatise may be reproduced for noncommercial purposes if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice. Please recall that “...if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice....” This exploration (reconnaissance) is the most thorough, deep and independent one. Instantly, you have been warned. If a better one is available, don't dwell on Romanticism and go get it. To exercise greater emphasis on some parts, I will use partial capitalization of words often. In some U.S. audiences, capitalization is discouraged while in Canada, Germany, France, Switzerland and the entirety of the Western World is most encouraged. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 73. 73 Back to the White Swan hardcore: As David, a proto-Britton, formulated this interesting question to me and given that I want to claim my rights on the present comment and treatise, I will be using first- person language frequently. David, any time the author use the words “...reader(s)...” or “...you...”, there must be understood that the ensuing persons are conjointly included: a) The reader, and b) David Shaw. Accordingly, Jewish scholar and Rabbi Hillel concludes, “...If I am not for myself, then who will be for me? And if I am only for myself, than what am I? And if not now, when?...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 74. 74 Rabbis are wonderful intellectuals that deserve my greatest appreciation. In solving problems rabbis will use sacred scriptures, philosophy, history and hard science. I don't belong to their creed but I will greatly support them at any time, any where. Extensive quotations and citations will also be used. Massive insights by third parties and the author will be available. Semantics and linguistics will be provided by Thomas' Jeffersonian Lingua Franca, exclusively. Has anyone told you and taught you about the outright Germanization of English? Some neologisms in English here are through the sponsorship of the Germanization-process of English. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 75. 75 Both in German and English and through the Germanization-process from two (2) to three (3) Indo-European words are coalesced together. By the way: If you are on King's Road and the locals there start telling you, “...Sir, you are a smart cookie and in awe by what you know ...” It is better for you to depart from ignorant envy by suboptimals. Back to the White Swan hardcore: QUESTION: Who, by the way, owns English? QUICK REPLY: Esperanto! To second the motion, Baroness Thatcher argued, “ … you ain't seen nothing, yet ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 76. 76 Incidentally: It is acknowledged that an alleged King once said, “... The size of a person's vocabulary is directly commensurate with the scale of his or her Cosmos ...” And good works enlightens ideas and good ideas further enlightens good cohesive detailed plans and hence success. Back to the White Swan hardcore: Some shared wisdom pertaining to language enhancement came from Leonardo (greatly cherished by NASA and DARPA) and Napoleon (greatly cherished by gargantuan U.S. Forces and the Industrial-Military- Complex). The wisdom posits, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 77. 77 “...Ascertain, at all times, to always replace upgradable words and terms by ones than are even better ...” By the way: Napoleon's mother (first) language was not French but Italian. Most probably, his third language was English. He spoke French with a heavy accent and some difficulties, but his recondite letters to his generals are most lucid. What is DARPA? “... The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) was established in 1958 to prevent strategic surprise from negatively impacting U.S. national security and create strategic surprise for U.S. adversaries by By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 78. 78 maintaining the technological superiority of the U.S. military …. To fulfill its mission, the Agency relies on diverse performers to apply multidisciplinary approaches to both advance knowledge through basic research and create innovative technologies that address current practical problems through applied research. DARPA’s scientific investigations span the gamut from laboratory efforts to the creation of full-scale technology demonstrations in the fields of biology, medicine, computer science, chemistry, physics, engineering, mathematics, material sciences, social sciences, neurosciences and more. As the DoD’s primary innovation engine, DARPA undertakes projects that are finite in duration but that create lasting revolutionary change ...” http://www.darpa.mil/our_work/ Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 79. 79 Accordingly, the signatory might be, among other amenities (MEMES), Davincian and Bonapartian. The author is never opinionated but ideanated. Back to the White Swan hardcore: The author has done and always will be doing his “ … homework ...” In no way this work is NEVER a substitute for doing your own reasoning, studying and researching. Everyone should do his / her own homework by himself / herself. My alleged “ … homework ...” is primarily done through learning theoretical, practical, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 80. 80 empirical and factual lessons from direct practical and intimate execution of and involvement with management and also by massive, perpetual research engaged by my own self, for Life. Jiddu Krishnamurti observed on education and learning: “... There is no end to education. It is not that you read a book, pass an examination, and finish with education. The whole of life, FROM THE MOMENT YOU ARE BORN TO THE MOMENT YOU DIE, IS A PROCESS OF LEARNING ...” Back to the White Swan hardcore: I relish developing own ideas, their detailed plans, theories and proto-theories and By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 81. 81 marshaled them into in-the-field problem solving. I will share my insight and experience as an adviser, studier, learner, thinker, researcher, strategist, practitioner and seminal speaker of forward-looking management both in theoretical and practical contexts. Whatever I reflect here is a conscientious, empirical, factual, independent and solemn POV (Point of View). “ …Solemnity is characterized or marked by seriousness or sincerity …. or profound …. earnest ….” This POV addresses practical and structural solutions, not onerous quick fixes. Among By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 82. 82 other important themes, this POV also deals with process, content and context. Partial solutions are inconsequential while total solutions are indispensable and, hence, the optimal pathway is hereby suggested. THIS POV WILL BE COMMUNICATED UNAMBIGUOUSLY AND EMPHATICALLY. The author NEVER does dogmas. Everyone else has the greatest right to having his / her own opinion(s) as well. No problem with that! Conversely, if you want to access my intellectual manifesto, a summation is here: With the purpose to remain authentic and genuine with my intellectual manifesto, I AM AGAINST: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 83. 83 1.- Ignorance. 2.- Sloppy, emotional thinking. 3.- Fashionable thinking. 4.- Within-style thinking. 5.- Ideal-based rational. 6.- Instant-gratification thought process. 7.- Non-Gestalt Thinking. 8.- Non-lumpen Thinking. (Lumpen is a nice word, extremely manipulated by Commies. Ergo, anything stemming from Commies I reject). By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 84. 84 9.- Non-Crowd-Wisdom Thinking. (No one played Albert's violin and theories, nor Amadeus' piano, nor Howard's gigantic wooden aqua-airplane or communication's satellites, nor Newton's unpublished prophecies, but them, and them alone, in in- companionship-ed solitude). 10.- Clustered Thinking. 11.- Silo Thinking. 12.- Charter Thinking. 13.- Standard Thinking. 14.- Informal Thinking. 15.- Undocumented Thinking. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 85. 85 16.- Laggards' Thinking. 17.- Bohemian Thinking. 18.- Hippie Thinking. 19.- “...Keep It Simple, Stupid...” (K.I.S.S.) Thinking. 20.- Short-term Thinking. 21.- Linear Thinking. 22.- Extra-Mile Thinking (We need several Extra-Leagues Thinking. A league is 3 miles or 4.8 kilometers). 23.- Single-mindedness Thinking (Against in- series thinking). By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 86. 86 24.- Un-Orchestrated Thinking. To further underpin the intellectual manifesto of the author, let us understand this clearly: “...My manner of thinking, so you say, cannot be approved. Do you suppose I care? A poor fool indeed is he who adopts a manner of thinking for others! ...” Jointly by the Marquis de Sade and the Author. Back to the White Swan hardcore: You must, the soonest, interrelate or correlate and connect the dots of every aspect that is included in this independent POV, on the doubles. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 87. 87 Everything here, the totality of all, is unfailingly interrelated with everything else. Back to the White Swan hardcore: Everything that the author will share applies for large and small for-profit and nonprofit organizations (including start-ups), both in the U.S. and around the world. By the way, it is really valued that in dealing with the practice of management you, David, haven't divorce said practice from its leadership component. BY KEEPING “ … MANAGEMENT ...” AND “ … LEADERSHIP … ” INDIVISIBLY INTEGRATED, YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY JUDICIOUS. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 88. 88 Leadership without management is like a Mirage without a runway. There are many authors placing a huge divide between leadership and management when you cannot apply your leadership outside of a management context. They are gravely mistaken. Management and leadership cannot be separated and they must always be exercised in a monolithic unison. I will give you, as well, some primary view on the historic perspective I have found regarding current-day future-driven management, now. I really believe that the historic perspective is a sine qua non. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 89. 89 Notwithstanding, the past and the present are never a script for the future. In Spanish there are two interesting words: (i) “ ...futurible ...” (from Latin futuribĭlis) and (ii) “...futurable...” As a result: “... Futurible ...” entails a conditioned future [scenario], that is not to happen with certainty, but that it will take place if a determined condition were firstly in place. Brackets are of the author. And it is also observed: Through other means, futurology is a discipline and a set of methodologies oriented to the prevision of the future. Basically, it By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 90. 90 deals with imagining future plausible scenarios, known as “...futuribles ...”, and in occasions in order to determine their likelihoods, with the express purpose of planning the necessary actions to avoid or accelerate their occurrence. And also: " … Futurable ..." consists of a desired future [scenario]. Brackets are of the author. The White Swan hardcore continues: And, for instance, Stuart A. Copans asserted, “...Study the past if you would divine the future...” And Edmund Burke pointed out, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 91. 91 “...You can never plan [retrospectively, that is a posteriori] the future by the past...” Brackets are of the author. To set the stage properly, I will start with an enlightening quote by Albert Einstein. “...The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created then...” Or, it could be better noted: “...The significant problems we face [today] cannot be solved [in the future] at the same level of [démodé] thinking we were at when we created then [in the fossilized past]...” Brackets are of the author. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 92. 92 Conversely: What are the frequent problems and challenges (including: humanly-induced existential ones) that we frequently encounter in managing risks optimally? For example and briefly: 1.- Corruption and Malfeasance. 2.- Radical ignorance. 3.- Learned ignorance. 4.- Dysfunctional knowledge. 5.- Unknowldege. 6.- Overspecialization and superspecialization. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 93. 93 7.- Usage of embedded-in-the-past notions and assumptions (obsoledge). Obsoledge equates to obsolete knowledge as this term was coined by Alvin Toffler. 8.- Not thinking in series (not simultaneously). 9.- Dismissal of thinking of the entire Whole. 10.- Inability to learn to unlearn. 11.- Gray areas and biases. 12.- Lack of thorough and lucid practical definition and demarcation of the system to be addressed and its boundaries. 13.- Incomplete reasoning and thinking. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 94. 94 14.- Holding and incorporation of “ … cherished beliefs ...” 15.- Absence of open-mindedness. 16.- Excess of narrowmindedness. 17.- Excess of un-reconnoiterable cues. Overspecialization and superspecialization beget incomplete knowledge and flawed execution. And hence they create many blind spots that beget folly black swans. Because through overspecialization and superspecialization, you are only dealing with Knowledge Depth, but also outright ruling out and precluding advanced Knowledge Width. Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 95. 95 One other aspect that must now be considered is a primordial axiom that is instrumental and widely considered here. That is, “...everything is somewhat related to everything else ...” Any management endeavor must consider this maxim seriously at all times. Please allow me some leeway to give some historic professional antecedents that will greatly prove useful in dealing with this work. Ensuing. Before being interested in applied scientific futuring and beyond-insurance risk management, I was college doubled trained in and majored in "...General Insurance By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 96. 96 Management..." and “...Insurance Careers ...” (U.S.). The Beatles' song lyrics indicate, “... take a sad song and make it better...” It can be better written by saying: “... Take a sad song [Black Swan and its unmanaged perils] and make it better [into a White Swan, while lucratively exploiting its brought-under-control: (a) Negative Risks, (b) Positive Risks, (c) Upside Futures and (d) Downside Futures]...” A prominent U.S. president seconded the motion by the Beatles: Amazing JFK has a wondrous quotation, “... My fellow Americans, ask not what your By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 97. 97 country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country ...” And the White Swan of it argues: “... My fellow Americans [and incumbent Corporate Chairpersons and CEOs, as well as serious Managers, in general], ask not what your country [and management systems] can do for you [, in order to advert black swans], ask [yes] what you [and your managerial: Scientific Futuring and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management] can do [with the ultimate end to make black swan cahsabale upon and with the ulterior purpose to seize grandest lucrative success and fiscally-sound, sustainable earnings] for your country [and corporation in urgent need for a White Swan practical perspective] ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 98. 98 And he also stated: His Most Excellency and Honorable President John F. Kennedy’s speech on September 12, 1962 at Race University: “...If this capsule history [, given to us by Gaia and, hence, Earth] of our progress [and scientific accomplishments toward leveraging our corporate pursuits towards more lucrative legally-incorporated entities] teaches us anything [before the gloomy and spookier black swan outlook], it is that man [and the manager in her and him], in his quest [practical study and corporate training] for knowledge and progress, is determined and cannot be deterred [, despite the most outlandish black swans]. The exploration of space [anyone pursuit by Fortune-7 Global Corporations into outright lucre] will go ahead, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 99. 99 whether we join in it or not [ whether we like it not, by instituting White Swans], and it is one of the great adventures [and transformation of known inputs into desired outputs] of all time [that is, quarter by quarter, early on, beforehand], and no nation [and Prominent Global Corporation] which expects to be the leader and [executing manager] of other nations [and competing corporations] can expect to stay behind [mired by unmanaged black swans] in the [contentious] race for space [and the down-to-earth Corporation's lucrative targets, objectives and goals] .... Well, space [and globalized marketplace mired by unpronounceable NEGATIVE RISKS AND DOWNSIDE FUTURES] is [and better said, are] there, and we're going [, and as per a corporate mandate to leverage the monolithic unison of all members in our TEAM and CREW into outright White Swans] to By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 100. 100 climb it [, conquer and prevail, as we ascertain that our White-Swan-ned Corporation is Global Player Number One, for Life!] …” [80] Brackets are of author. Back to the White Swan hardcore: I also took serious university classes on engineering and mechanical-engineering technology and electronic-engineering technology (Canada, Venezuela). In my evening and dawn daydreams I seem to be a lucky alumnus of Georg-August- Universität Göttingen and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 101. 101 Technology is also, at many times, synonymous with the term “ ...task …,” as it is argued by a Stanford University Professor. This author's definition of Technology is: “... Technology is instituted in order to solve practical problems (both mild and complex ones, whether randomized, pseudo- randomized or not ) ─ especially in industry, commerce, economy, science, technology, society, and politics (including geopolitics) ─, the methodical practical application of the scientific method, mathematical principles, practical sciences and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective and beyond, as well as to achieve practical ends such as the design, manufacture, and operation of efficient and economical structures, machines, processes, and systems By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 102. 102 …. The profession of and or the work performed by any engineer ...” To this purpose and furthering the present work: “...From Nostradamus to Alvin Toffler, individuals and organizations have long been obsessed with trying to see the future. The goal is to somehow get advanced warning of ‘ ...what will be ...’...” [64] In order to do the prior, it is important to institute advanced scenario planning. Through it, the reader will get White Swans only. By Scenario Planning I mean a Methodology that is beyond that of Dr. Strangeloves (RAND Corporation' and Hudson Institute's Herman By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 103. 103 Khan) and Royal Dutch Shell's Pierre Wack and Peter Schwartz. The actual practical effectiveness of scientifically-driven scenario planning can be considerably improved yet, as it done in Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmanagement). Furthermore: Objectives expressed in specific numbers (numerical data), to be accomplished through a detailed plan, can be called goals. And goals expressed in unambiguous narrative (narrative data), to be accomplished through a detailed plan, can be called By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 104. 104 objectives. Global corporations use both, integrally. Hence: Working with the second largest oil group in the world (Citgo's PDVSA, with 54,000 active employees and 210,000 eligible dependents. PDVSA is Citgo's parent company), that group wanted me to only institute beyond-insurance risk management as it is posited here. What later became Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (TAIRM). Question: Who was Risk Management's Practitioner #1? Once someone told me a spoken and loose account about the item above. Using my own By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 105. 105 words, I attempted to reconstruct the story here: “...Moses allegedly wrote some 3,500 years ago a seemingly parable as per an unknown source, [that] ‘ … Every new house must have a guard rail around the edge of the flat rooftop in order to prevent anyone from falling off and precluding inhabitants from bringing guilt and liability to both the householders and neighbors...'....” [226]. Brackets are of the author. Back to the White Swan hardcore: You see, when these organizational executives (from PDVSA, Citgo, other worldwide petroleum corporations, Toyota, Mitsubishi Motors, TNT Delivery Express and other global corporations) were to incur in a By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 106. 106 loss (potential disruption), it did not suffice to them to have the indemnity payment from the insurance and reinsurance pool. On February 01 1984 I officially started serious thinking about long-studied "...beyond- insurance risk management..." And since then all the way throughout this date. Conversely, insurance-based risk management is the old guard while beyond- insurance risk management is the vanguard. Some reasons for that will be offered here. For illustration purposes and just using one narrow self-explanatory instance, please check out how insurance and reinsurance habitually opine and operate, say, the following: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 107. 107 “... [Insurance underwriters have the] '...preference for insuring against probable small losses...' — at the expense of the less probable but larger impact ones ...” [227]. Brackets are of the author. The entire account of the paragraph above is next: “...However, [Dr. Paul] Slovic [, PhD. at http://bit.ly/1l697f0] and his colleagues found [at the University of the president of Decision Research], in insurance patterns, neglect of these highly improbable events in people's insurance purchases. The call is the '...preference for insuring against probable small losses...' — at the expense of the less probable but larger impact ones ...” Brackets are of the author. [227]. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 108. 108 For illustrative purposes: Let me start by telling the reader that Optimal Risk Management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmanagement), at all times, equates to Optimal Per-Se Management. Ergo and at the outset, allow me to offer a definition of Risk. “... Risk is the quantitative or qualitative expression of possible loss that considers both the probability that an event will occur and the consequences of that event … and/or the likeliness of injury, harm, damage, disruption or loss multiplied by its potential magnitude ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 109. 109 A brief sample of what Risk entails it is now offered: 1.- Academicians' and Scholars' Trickery 2.- Bankruptcy 3.- Competition 4.- Currency Collapse 5.- Disease 6.- Earthquake 7.- Energy Shortage 8.- Existential Risks (and/or beyond Global Catastrophic Risks) 9.- Espionage (Industrial, Political and Geopolitical), including: cyberspionage. 10.- Explosion 11.- Fire 12.- Flood 13.- Fraud 14.- Geopolitical Conflict 15.- Hurricane By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 110. 110 16.- Illegal Immigration 17.- Incompetence 18.- Malign mind-set(s) 19.- Managerial Malfeasance 20.- Mediocrity 21.- Nuclear War 22.- Oil-Drilling Spill 23.- Political Chicanery 24.- Political Reversal 25.- Robbery 26.- Scientific and Pseudo-Scientific Sophistry 27.- Severe Weather 28.- Terrorism (homegrown and foreign) 29.- Volcano and Super-volcano Eruption 30.- Leaders' and Managers' and Scientists' lack of candor 31.- Others. The brain is the biological hardware. The mind is the rotational and translational software. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 111. 111 RISKS ARE ALSO: (A.-) Unnecessary yet onerous problems, and B.-) Sudden Disruptive Expensive Expenses. Back to the White Swan hardcore: Accordingly, I will give you, likewise, a definition of Risk Management. “...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (TAIRM) comprises of all activities and initiatives required to seize the optimum degree of risk elimination, mitigation, modulation or control within the constraints of operational effectiveness, time, and cost, attained through the specific, systemic and systematic application of management, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 112. 112 scientific, engineering and applied mathematical principles throughout all phases and facets of system operation ...” Let us address the word “ … system ...” (the entirety of the Whole). Whether the boundaries of a designated system (ample conception) are porous or not, blurred or not, defined or not, fluid or not, the beyond-insurance risk manager must radically, structurally and continuously tackle said system optimally. TAIRM exhaustively copes, early on (beforehand), with intended and unintended consequences within and beyond determinism and indeterminacy. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 113. 113 By “ … early on ...” it is meant: “ … Before the beginning of a course of events, chiefly those events least expected ...” TAIRM is only instituted with the express purpose of solving complex problems in all practicality. Complication and complexity are never synonymous! Here is why: “ … Complication is a confused or intricate relationship of elements, parts and/or subsystems …. A condition, event, etc, that is confused …. A problem arising as a consequence of another problem …. Something that introduces, usually unexpectedly, a difficulty, problem, change, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 114. 114 etc. …. A concurrent problem that aggravates the original problem …. It is a difficulty or confusion stemming from the concurrence and happening of diverse things ...” And then: “ … Complexity is the state or quality of being intricate …. Consists of interconnected or interwoven parts; composite …. Composed of two or more units …. Involved or intricate, as in structure …. A whole composed of interconnected or interwoven or interrelated parts …. It entails diverse elements ...” This is significant: Interrelationships and linkages that are both subtle and discrete and those that are soft By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 115. 115 (mild) and dramatic (wild). All of the preceding can, too, be both covert, overt and/or ignored. And now: For illustrative purposes, the Characteristics of the Systems Approach by Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmanagement) include: 1) Methodical, 2) Objective, 3) Quantitative or Measurable, 4) Analytical, 5) Subsystem Interdependence, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 116. 116 6) Parallel Analysis of Elements (Orchestrated Analysis of Elements), 7) Inputs and Outputs in Clear Language and 8) Self-Containment / Closed Loop. Ergo, Important to note: Many experts and even scientists, scholars and futurologists speak about empirical, factual management with the sole perspective of unimplemented theoretical notions (that is: with too many unanswered questions and unlearned lessons never realized, seized, defined or explained by their own selves). Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 117. 117 When dealing with an ample-conception of “...System...”, if you find there simplicity, it is because your thought process is flawed and incomplete. And, for instance: Complication and complexity are nonlinear blessings when you have endowed your mind with preparedness in order to deal with and through them. Back to the White Swan hardcore: BUT THE MATTER IS, HAVE THEY REALLY EXERCISED THE ACTUAL RESPONSIBILITY OF DIRECTLY MANAGING A LARGE, GLOBAL By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 118. 118 ENTERPRISE (ORGANIZATION) SUCCESSFULLY? WHAT EXACTLY IS THE APPLIED EXPERIENCE IN THE FIELD THAT THEY POSSES? QUESTION: What PRECISELY have said scientists, scholars and futurologists directly manage in the practical theater of operations? Allegedly: “... Theater of Operation is hereby included to mean the four-dimensional coordinate system and beyond it, in which organization's physical (tangible) and non-physical (intangible) events are located ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 119. 119 How, in the World or the Omniverse (The totality of Alternate universes), can they speak with veritable fundamentals about practical management solutions? The Omniverse's braingrandchild is Computronium (Computronium is a material hypothesized by Norman Margolus and Tommaso Toffoli of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to be used as "programmable matter," a substrate for computer modeling of virtually any real object. ). And the The Omniverse's brainchild is the Multiverse (The multiverse (or meta-universe) is the hypothetical set of infinite or finite possible universes (including the historical universe we consistently experience) that together comprise everything that exists and can exist: the entirety of space, time, matter, and energy as well as the physical laws and By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 120. 120 constants that describe them. The various universes within the multiverse are sometimes called parallel universes.). Back to the White Swan hardcore: What are the accurate unfalsifiable particulars of their proven-track record audited by prominent external and independent non- theoretical scientific incumbents? Really? QUESTION: In all truth, What are, point- blankly, their actual applied methodologies and their scientifically-audited paradigms? Let's see an example of a large misconception. A West-Coast “...Global Futurist ...” (so called) states that organizations and people must By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 121. 121 have "...the capacity to adapt and learn now how to prepare for risks..." According to him, How exactly does one institute his futuristic "...risk management..."? Then, he suggests that by a) Risk Monitoring, b) Risk Analysis, c) Risk Sensing and d) Risk Management as they are a function of Strategic Risk Forecasting. Indeed! What is the alleged walk-through to this futurist's flawed opinion? This flawed “ … Mexican enchilada ...” by the above West- Coast Futurist is not a methodology and doesn't even embody a form of primitive risk management at all. Why it is a messy enchilada? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 122. 122 As he frequently mentions and randomly and loosely elaborates pertaining to the terms “...risk...” and “ ...risk management ...” in overly-abundant ways, he outright fails to clearly define the following: a) Risk Monitoring, b) Risk Analysis, c) Risk Sensing, and d) Risk Management. His presentation is available at http://lnkd.in/bV_Rp4s There are many futurists (rather, futurologists) and other scientists addressing the “...risk management...” unrealized talk without having a direct, practical experience in administering risks through beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 123. 123 What precisely is the most accurate proven track record they posses? People like him are called, by Sir Martin Rees PhD., “ ... techno-forecasters ...” and he argues verbatim: “ ...Techno-forecasters, their attitudes molded by the social and political environment of the West Coast of the United States, where so many such people are congregated, tend to envisage that changes proceed untrammeled, in a social system supportive of innovations and that consumerist motivations dominate other ideologies. These presumptions may be as unwarranted as it would have been to downplay the role of religion in international affairs, or to predict that sub-Saharan Africa would have advanced steadily since the By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 124. 124 1970s rather than regressing further into destitution. Unpredictable social and political developments add extra dimensions of uncertainty. Indeed, a main theme of this book is that technical advances will in themselves render society more vulnerable to disruption. But even if disruption were no worse than it is today, these forecasts do little more than set the 'envelope' of what might be possible: the gap between what is technically possible and what will actually happen is going to widen. Some innovations just don't attract enough economic or social demand ...” Back to the White Swan hardcore: In my professional case, it is in place the management of the 75% of the risks by the assets and employees (and the eligible dependents of said employees) of huge By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 125. 125 industrial groups such as PDVSA (Citgo's parent corporation), Toyota, Mitsubishi Motors and many other global institutions discussed thereafter. A little fun yet actual story: Andres goes to the Massachusetts Board Room with the 90-Million-Dollar Chairman and CEO, a delightful actual story (1996). Andres' executive presentation was destined to Mr. Stephen Lockwood, Founder, Chairman and CEO of LDG Management, later acquired by HCC Benefits at http://www.hcc.com/ Andres came in as the CEO and Chairman of CORS. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 126. 126 The meeting was scheduled thanks to the assistance and attendance of Mr. Christopher Robinson (A Lloyd's of London Insurance Broker) and Mr. Manuel Samaniego (An Independent Reinsurance Broker). I had the executive presentation well prepared and backed up in several formats. One day before boarding my plane to meeting Steve, my two PCs began giving me a hard time. Therefore, I bought the first new PC I could find with an unknown brand name. I transferred the executive presentation to the new PC and was very worried as I want it to further streamline some slides and make those more appealing and factual. The night before I had a nice little dinner with Chris and Manolo. We had Massachusetts By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 127. 127 clam soups. Both of them asked me if I was ready. I told them about my computer glitch and said that I need the whole night and dawn to get those slides ready to go for the board- room meeting. They were a tiny bit concerned but after my reassurance, they were at ease. Next morning, the three of us had a nice breakfast and they could not believe that everything was ready to go. We left the hotel and headed for the head office of the company. We noticed a beautiful building of bluish crystals all over. As I coincidence, I noticed that in front of HCC Benefits' LDG Management there was the office of Liberty Mutual headquarter office. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 128. 128 So we went straight to Steve's magnificent office suite. He had several outstanding diplomas behind his nice desktop. Then he took us directly to the Conference Room. As Steve was seated to the forefront to my right, Chris was at the far-out seating to my right and at the mid “far-out” was Manolo seating to my left. I was standing and ready to make the presentation. I started my presentation to Steve. Several years before, I have studied standards, metrics and approaches used by Health-care TPAs (Third-Party Administration), HMO (Health-Maintenance Organization), PPOs (Professional-Provider Organizations by clinics and hospitals) and a great variety of By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 129. 129 other U.S. standard acronyms that were frequent parlance for Steve and Andres. So, I began making the presentation to Steve, and hence Steve and I hit it off. Steve became so enthusiastic that he did not wait for the Q&A session and started to offer inputs frequently. So the presentation became a relentless conversation. All of the sudden, I heard a voice. Manolo: “...Oh, I don't know why I am here for … I don't think you guys need me here at all ...” Then, Steve and I continued with our great dialogue as we were having fun. Then, again, I heard a voice. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 130. 130 Chris: “... Oh, Andres, I don't understand what you are saying … It does not make any sense to me ...” Steve: “...I know exactly what he is talking about and cannot believe how well he understands our business...” The dialogue continued for a long time until Steve invited us to a super nice business luncheon with his top executives. His right hand was a most-gorgeous female executive. At luncheon, we had a little exchange: Steve: “...Andres, what do you need us for? ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 131. 131 Andres: “...Given the scale of what I am entertaining with major global players, I need additional institutional backing...” Steve: “...Okay, I will go with some of my executives to meet you and some of your clients...” By the end of the luncheon, Manolo and Chris said goodbye to Steve and me. AND: Andres: “...Steve, I am not going anywhere as I took a long flight here. I am planning to spend a week with you in order to better solve your queries before you go and meet my clients ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 132. 132 Steve: “...Andres, you are most welcome but I won't be available to you at all times … I will tell Nancy (his secretary) to setup a conference room with a secretary and phone lines for you ...” Andres: “...Perfect....I need to send you some additional printed slides for your additional consideration through Nancy and we can regroup whenever it is possible ...” Fast-forwarding the events, it came the last day, a Friday, and we had a very nice meeting. Steve told me that the limo was ready to take me to the airport. He told me also that he found the additional slides interesting and gave me some formats for me to fill out at a later day. He said that he will go and meet me with four (4) of his executives to talk to my clients. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 133. 133 To make a long story brief, Steve requested me, with great emphasis, that he wanted to meet with my three largest corporate clients only. I said yes. Three huge clients was a meager number for me so I exposed him to sixteen (16) corporate clients and he was extremely happy and impressed. Some months after his company was bought out and he got a cash check for US$ 90 million and retired, as we are, to this date, good friends. Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 134. 134 How can one gauge the indefinite limits of such global petroleum, automotive and logistics corporations? By a brief example: These global corporations have their own private universities and R&D&I labs and other facilities. A fantastic example of R&D&I labs are comprised by Xerox PARC. According to Wikipedia, “ … Xerox PARC, is a research and development company in Palo Alto, California .... Founded in 1970 as a division of Xerox Corporation .... Xerox formed Palo Alto Research Center Incorporated as a wholly owned subsidiary in 2002 ...” Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 135. 135 The preceding lab have wondrous in-all- practicality frame of references in which to enforce uncanny operation-reality-checked challenges, problems, developments, standards, techniques, technical breakthroughs, scientific discoveries, novel innovation developments, benefits, opportunities, efficiencies and progress. By way of example and as many others, GE has its own famous Crotonville corporate educational facility, buoyantly mentioned by Jack Welch and Jeffrey Immelt. Crotonville's Provost is the CEO of this fully-integrated subsidiary company to GE. Speaking of education: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 136. 136 The second-best teachers and professors are the strict and disciplinarian ones. The best teachers and professors are the ones that frustrate your learning process, by default asking you to grasp your own perpetual education for Life. Jim Rhon observed that if you get a college degree you can make a decent living, but if you can be a rigorous autodidact (into self theoretical and practical learning), you can get wealthy. If you want to get amazingly enlightened on education by the American Father of Outer- Space Conquest and Europe's Ultimate Emperor, please go to http://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan- edu By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 137. 137 Back to the White Swan hardcore: Citgo's PDVSA, believe or it not, had a living miniaturized microcosmic Earth, as of July of 1996. I had the official visit of some leading U.S. executives considering entering a joint venture with my company (CORS) regarding this petroleum group when we got the invitation to see this tiny planet, used by PDVSA to measure actual ecological impacts by fossil- driven energy consumption. These privately-held labs and educational organizations compete and sometime supersedes those amazing institutions by the prestigious Ivy-League universities. Coming back to the main point: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 138. 138 This long professional and practical experience extends in the fields of turnkey applied: Management, corporate planning and risk management consultation, strategy and associated services with major organizations and corporations extends to more than thirty years. I have instituted all-encompassing beyond- insurance risk management (TAIRM) to more than a dozen of global institutions of unparallelled world-class reputation, hereunder. Many of these institutions, including the World Bank, have issued letters of reference and tetimonial of the services provided. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 139. 139 Whenever I speak hereby about how I practice “...risk management...”, I will only be referring to scientifically-driven beyond- insurance risk management and never ever be referring to financially-driven risk management. In all and all, insurance is an expensive quick fix while Transformative and Integrative Risk Management and beyond-insurance risk management, in general, are a cost-effective cardinal solution. TAIRM implements turnkey, essential beyond- insurance risk management solutions. The word “...system...” is here used in its ample meaning and does not hereby refer to computer systems. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 140. 140 The definition of system — that I have researched, meditated and pondered about — is this: “...System comprises the whole compounded of several parts, members elements, components and subsystems, a group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent elements forming a complex whole, an organized set of interrelated ideas or principles, a naturally occurring group of objects or phenomena, a condition of harmonious and orderly interaction, and an organized and coordinated method; a procedure. System is a set of interacting or interdependent components forming an integrated whole or a set of elements (often called 'components') and dynamic relationships which are different from By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 141. 141 relationships of the set or its elements to other elements or sets. Systems unite and put together elements, components and subsystems toward the entire whole..." And: The definition of omniscience that I have researched, meditated and pondered about is this: “... Applied non-theological omniscience consists of having total knowledge; knowing everything, having infinite knowledge, the current state of knowledge, the ability to know anything that one chooses to know and can be known and actually knowing everything that can be known. Synonyms to omniscience include panshopy, polyhistory and all- knowingness ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 142. 142 THE PRECEDING ENTAILS THE OMNISCIENTIZATION OF EVERYTHING, TANGIBLE AND INTANGIBLE, IN ORDER TO LUCRATIVELY EXPLOIT EVERY DOWNSIDE RISK, DOWNSIDE FUTURE, UPSIDE RISK AND UPSIDE FUTURE. Arbitrary demarcations of knowledge by scientists and pseudoscientists are a DIRECT function of overspecialization and superspecialization. Subsequently, overspecialization and superspecialization by scientists and pseudoscientists ARE NEVER a function of applied non-theological omniscience application. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 143. 143 Mind-Mapping (ISBN-13: 978-0452273221) British Author, Mr. Tony Buzan, who has extensively worked with corporations such as prominent Boeing, argues that knowledge is more like a Broth or Soup, WITHOUT the application of artificially-arbitrary constraints and boundaries by folly faulty hominids. In said Broth or Soup, there are not artificially- imposed limits, say, between Math and History, between Geography and Biology, between Hard Science and Soft Science, between Hard Tech and Low Tech, between Exactness-Driven Sciences and Social Sciences, between Theological Studies, as well as Hermeneutics, and Applied Quantum Mechanics, between Recondite and Hermetic yet Secretive Learning and Learning Acquired by Trial and Error...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 144. 144 Using a differentiated language but focusing on the same connotation as the signatory below, Buzan strongly asserts that the usage of the greatest extent possible of available or even unavailable knowledge to solve problems and to make choices is most necessary and desirable, regardless of their tiny minuteness or the gargantuan cosmological scale. TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE POINT BY BUZAN AND THE AUTHOR, LET US CREATE A DIALOGUE SIMULACRUM BY BART SIMPSON AND HOMER SIMPSON. Bart: Dad, why do you say that knowledge is a soup? Homer: Son, because since time immemorial and before the advent of the Industrial By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 145. 145 Revolution, every type of knowledge was somewhat related to the other type. Tony does some nice chatting about it. Bart: Dad, what is the Industrial Revolution? But in the process, don't dictate me an academic lecture and scholarship, please! Homer: Son, the Industrial Revolution is Day #1 when humans decided to throw in the towel and to make inanimate apparatus to rule the entire human race, thus ruling out hominids. Bart: Is that Day #1 for Home Personal Computers making? Homer: For PC making and the ensuing bots! Bart: What do you mean by bots? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 146. 146 Homer: Those anthropomorphic and non- anthropomorphic apparatus that stem from Swiss-clockwork manufacturing and some other naughty gadgets by Leo. Bart: What do you mean by naughty gadgets by Leonardo? Is that the same Leo of the Priory of Sion? Homer: Yes. Leo's automaton one, that, I guess, some architect or technologist have resembled and proved utility in that and so the tic-tact-toe thing went into inexhaustible infinity until its own destruction by tear and wear. Bart: And what is the problem with building a tic-tact-toe thing, rumbling around? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 147. 147 Homer: My son, you are so naive. There is no problem with the tic-tact-toe thing rumbling around. The problem is that Siren Servers are planning to bestow such rumbling-around tic- tact-toe things with beyond-human-thinking capabilities. In the process, some rara avis and pigeons might become endangered species. Bart: Dad, you must be jockeying! Are you, Dad, suggesting that real-world and present- day humans are entertaining the idea of enabling the worst nightmares predicted by Proto-Luddites? Homer: Well, Bart, the problem with you is that you haven't read the Singularity is Near. There is no problem because in that book it is cherished that by a bird's and a bee's type of transubstantiation thing humans and By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 148. 148 apparatus will become one single entity. And thus mortality will become an unfashionable thing of the past. Bart: Dad, but some spooky reasons beyond my understanding Jaron says, like Gerald Celente, that we need to become Siren- Servers advert and be careful that home PCs don't stand-up and start flying and self- replicating and giving birth to upgraded tic-tac- toe devices. Homer: Jaron, who? Bart: That is: Jaron Lanier. He dearly harbors the serious notion of the Siren Servers (ISBN- 13: 978-1451654974). By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 149. 149 Homer: Bart, I don't know that gentleman? What is that silly subtle point you are trying to make with me? To the point, please! Bart: The problem is that Jaron argues that the man with the outlandish public laughter, a bit out of public proportion and without grace and appalling gusto, is set out, through his Siren Servers' web-based store, to use rumbling-around tic-tact-toe and beyond- human-thinking capabilities things to do acrobatic-midair hovering, superseding watermelon-sized hovercrafts. Homer: Son, if that is so anguishly true, I must declare you a shrewd, mordant brainchild. Why Caustic Monsieur Highest- Volume Laughter (ASIN: B007GPYLH0) would want those insane entities to do midair hovering? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 150. 150 Bart: Daddy, so that he can get his non- clouded-based products and cash-capturing to arrive on the customer's hands, delivering quamtumly-encrypted materials, without the snailed-paced best offices of and by FEDEX or UPS. Homer: But Bart, when the gentleman in question met with Charlie, did he hint something about you in-point stuff? Bart: Charlie, Charlie who? Homer: Charlie Rose, the Bloomberg TV's journalist and nighttime interviewer, remember? Bart: Yes, I do. But the Lanier guy says that the tic-tact-toe thing, beyond being smarter By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 151. 151 than a human device and hovering in the midair spatial plane, it is also going to be wirelessly connected in the temporal locus with the World-Wide Web and it is also going to be able to sequester wireless electricity, too. Homer: Oh my God, son! Are you sure that you are NOT into the Scottish Rite? Bart: Are you hinting me to be associated with the foundational architects of Washington D.C.? Homer: Bart, are you suggesting that Mr. Laughter might as well be using Recondite and Hermetic Knowledge to make the tic-tac- toe a superrich-fortune-generating after-tax wealth, to out-compete Gates III and Buffett I? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 152. 152 Bart: You are close, Dad, but not close enough! Sure thing, Mr. Laughter will secure Recondite and Hermetic Knowledge. But in order to be even more technical and prepared, he is additionally going to use Andy's practical idea on non-theological applied omniscience. Got it? He will, then, get his White Swan as his Swiss and Jersey Bankers will confirm his in-pocketed CASH. Thence, he will rule many Siren Servers! Homer: What is the White Swan's non- theological applied omniscience? Bart: An invention by DARPA and NASA, greatly propelled by Dr. Robert Hutchings Goddard and Dr. Wernher von Braun. And before you ask, NASA is a spinoff by DARPA and DoD. And DARPA is where America's By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 153. 153 most sophisticated ground-breaking hotbed- ed scientists reside, research and provide. Homer: What is a White Swan? Bart: The beforehand destruction of corporation's MOST exponential risks and downside futures, transformed into insane richness and gold. Homer: Do you think that these watermelon- sized wireless ubiquitous hovercrafts (quadracopters) will get into reproducing their non-biological specie? Bart: Well, Joel and Orson argue that they will make self-replicating and self-upgrading watermelon-sized wireless hovercrafts. They say that the air traffic will be so jammed by the un-biological thinking and mating By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 154. 154 (reproducing) creatures that jet number 1 won't be able to take off. Homer: What Joel and Orson are those? Bart: The one of the Radical Evolution. Dad, where do you think these trends will take us to? Orson is a hell-of-American intellectual and movie director and maker that shocked TV viewers with the invasion of and by alien intelligences from the Omniverse's Recondite and Hermetic: Dark Energy and Dark Matter. To this end, Olson explains his case below. Homer: I first must correct you. I agree with Andy. He does not like the oversimplified “trend” and “countertrend” words. He says that trend is like a head-shot of a frozen dynamic projected trajectory, only bestowed by the Dynamic Driving Forces. If the Disruptional By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 155. 155 Singularity warrants it only, the Dynamic Driving Forces will, then, take us into Ray's Technological Singularity. Bart: I am confused! What are those singularities about? Homer: The techie one is about birthing non- biological and transbiological humans that supersede the computational reckoning by today's human brain. And making natural expiration an outright thing of the past. The Disruptional one is about human error, terror and flawness making waves in civilian and military spheres, including the imposition of the Cold War II by the express impious deeds of the Euro-Asian superpower as per the invite, not of the U.S., of the naive E.U. so- called “leaders.” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 156. 156 Bart: Can the self-replicating and self- upgrading watermelon-sized wireless hovercrafts carry improvised “x” devices? Homer: I doubt it, Mr. Laughter has every White Swan detailed-ly calculated. And White Swans hates every form of disruptions and are rara avis that destroy threats and risks. Bart: What can a White Swan do for the most prominent Seattle inhabitant? Homer: Make his core-business EVEN infinitely richer while securing a better laughter outpouring to the East Coast of the Atlantic. Bart: Dad, how can get on the boat on making wealth like him? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 157. 157 Homer: Through two quick ways. First, by doing smart entrepreneuring. Second, by doing the “...First...” through the White Swan. Bart: Why is it necessary the White Swan? Homer: First, in order not to get silly black swans. Second, in order to make your coped- with black swans into beautiful and lucrative White Swans through Transformative and Integrative Risk Management interdisciplinary problem-solving methodology. Bart: And What is Transformative and Integrative Risk Management interdisciplinary problem-solving methodology? Homer: Andy's interdisciplinary approach to Seize Success, Preclude the Disruptional By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 158. 158 Singularity and enable Ray's Technological Singularity. Bart: How do you define success? Homer: To this end, Andy says that Success is achieved in two simultaneous ways. FIRST, By securing all of your designated objectives and goals, despite competitors and governments. SECOND, By securing that, as you over-accomplish your designated objectives and goals, you give your competitors tons of Sputnik Moments. Bart: Oh, I see. Buy what is that Rusky notion that I don't get? Homer: Sputnik moments are when you are superseded by your competitors as they throw at you technological innovations to disrupt By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 159. 159 your business from competing. And if you are getting Sputnik moments is because you are doing, without consciousness, black swans only and are not responsive to the White Swan idea. Bart: Dad, that sounds a bit complicated. Homer: Bart, for some things you are smart. And for others you are a fool. Competition between business enterprises are harsh actions by Frederick The Great and Emperor Napoleon I. Bart: Dad, why are you teaching me history? I hate that knowledge field. Homer: Bart, if you don't learn history, you are set out to fail at entrepreneuring! You can have all the high tech you want but if you don't By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 160. 160 know how to do your strategy right and do right with your risks and futures, you are destined to be bankrupted. Bart: Dad, are all entrepreneurs and corporation CEOs and chairpersons so anti- shrewd? Homer: 97% of them are! Those guys and gals think that by having tons of servers and web-based mobile applications they will outsmart the competition and governments. Hence, they are immeasurably wrong! Bart: Dad, so one needs to go further than having laptops, servers, kindles, e-readers, i- pads, i-phones and so forth? Are those the employment of what Andy and other call tangibles. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 161. 161 Homer: Yes, son. You gotta do your intangibles. Even tangibles are made up of intangibles. The world is ruled by intangibles. Stated simply, intangibles are Intellectual Capital. You see, not only corporations have Intellectual Capital but also sole proprietors as Andy and Ray. White Swan and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management are Intellectual Capitals, solely owned by Andy. Bart: Is software contemplated within your Intellectual Capital definition? Homer: Yes, software is an intangible and an Intellectual Capital. And, for the sake of clarity, you can even have a systematized interdisciplinary methodology in place that does not need computerization or web-basing. You see, Bart, everything under By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 162. 162 Computronium's Sun is always, whether we know it or not, reckoning zillion calculations. Bart: Is the biological mind a good example of a systematized hardware whose locus does not belong to W3? Homer: Yes, it is. And you can also add that the bio-PC is systematic and yet, in many cases, not systemic. Bart: And beyond patents and other copyrighted materials, What else is Intellectual Capital? Homer: Two-fold question. FIRST, there is the knowledge base of the Corporation. SECOND, there is the knowledge base of each Corporation employee beyond any property and/or effort by said Corporation. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 163. 163 Bart: Who owns Tony Buzan's Broth and Soup? Homer: Well, Tony's soup has a primordial genesis in people and civilizations from: Classic Ancient Greeks, Classic Ancient Romans and Latins, Classic Ancient Aryans and Germanics, Classic Ancient Scandinavians and, for instance, Classic Ancient Egyptians and Classic Ancient Phoenicians. And the idea by all of them is that the totality of knowledge does not have clearly-human-made knowledge (system) demarcations (boundaries). And superspecialization and overspecialization are NEVER recommended by these Classic Ancient civilizations. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 164. 164 Bart: And because of that by you is that Andy suggests to swiftly and thoroughly embrace the non-theological omniscience notion, just as DARPA, NASA and Shell do since the early 1950s. Homer: Bart, you are becoming most mordant and probably into the Illuminatis? Are you? Back to the White Swan hardcore: Speaking of applied omniscience and by way of example: Deng Xiaoping's quote: “ … It doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice ...” Paraphrasing the thought above, the reader gets: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 165. 165 “ … It doesn't matter whether the cat [problem-solving methodology] is black [insurance-based risk management] or white [beyond-insurance risk management], as long as it catches [terminates or, at least, optimally modulates] mice [hazards and any operational downside futures]...” Brackets are of the author. Let us consider: «Universal Knowledge» vis-à- vis Omniscience: “... In support of the liberal notion that the knowledges that constitute the university have no ‘use’ fail to ask what [John Henry] Newman mean by ‘universal knowledge.’ By ‘universal’ Newman did not mean that the knowledges that constitute liberal learning cannot be justified by their utility, but rather that all By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 166. 166 knowledge was interconnected because the ‘universe in its length and breadth is so intimately knit together.’ To be educated is not to be well read or to know a great deal about this or that subject. Rather, it is the only true enlargement of mind which is the power of viewing many things at once as one whole, of referring them severally to their true place in the universal system, or understanding their respective values, and determining their mutual dependence...” [95] Brackets are of the author. And the preceding paragraph continues: “... Thus is that form of Universal Knowledges sets up in the individual intellect, and constitutes its perfection. Possessed of this real illumination, the mind never views any part of the extended subject-matter of By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 167. 167 Knowledge without recollecting that it is but a part, or without the associations which spring from this recollection. It makes everything in some sort lead to everything else; it would communicate the image of the whole to every separate portion, till that whole becomes in imagination like a spirit, everywhere pervading and penetrating its component parts, and giving them one definite meaning .... Philosophy, not theology, Newman believes to be the discipline that is distinct from all the sciences, that is, ‘in some sense’ philosophy is ‘ … a science of sciences … ’ ...” [95]. In this context, the term “...knowledge...” includes: 1.- Unknowldege. 2.- Non-unknowldege knowledge. 3.- Foreknowledge. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 168. 168 4.- Prescience. 5.- Omniscience. What can applied knowledge do for efficiency, progress and modernity? Speaking of non-theological omniscience, Edward Teller argues, “...The science of today is the technology of tomorrow ...” [83] Applied non-theological omniscience is lavishly applied by DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and a myriad of world-class private contractors by both of these agencies, among many other institutions. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 169. 169 Applied non-theological omniscience has been under application in many industries since the early 1950s. To illustrate the focus of the latter-day work, “...Management of Risk and Insurance...” does not ever equate to beyond-insurance risk management (the exact opposite of insurance-based risk unmanagement). It is now important to assert that “...COSO Risk Management...” and “...Enterprise Risk Management...” are never beyond-insurance risk management. “...Management of Captive Insurance Companies...” does not ever equate to beyond-insurance risk management. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 170. 170 “...' … Risk Management ...' (so-called) by Insurance and Reinsurance Brokers...” does not ever equate to beyond-insurance risk management. Under the snail-paced of financial focus, institutional and corporate firms "...transfer risks..." (so called) to insurance and reinsurance companies (suboptimal or ineffectual choice). Under the TAIRM focus, institutional and corporate firms manage risks optimally through the systems interdisciplinary approach with the applied omniscience perspective (optimal decision). Coming to the core of the subject matter, thus receiving indemnity payments was observed By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 171. 171 as insidious mediocrity by this petroleum group above. Let us not complicate things that are already complicated. The people who lie the most, are not psychopaths, but folks into outright and comfortable mediocrity (there are some with tertiary and tetratary completed education). The preceding have envisaged, as per the narrowed and convenient under-minds, a Cosmosvision in which no one should do the extra-mile effort. And when someone else, willing to go for the extra-league effort, they argue, “... pal, sure thing, you are a smart cookie that does NOT warrant my relieving sleep as I am in awe and bewilderment by your mouth and keyboard … By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 172. 172 I hugely hate you because you have proven my Belief System wrong ...” Back to the White Swan hardcore: These global corporations, for illustration purposes and when applying advanced scenario-planning methodology, don't only contemplate — say — the tree-scenario output but the totality of meaningful scenarios that can disrupt their operations gravely or grow their success significantly. Sometimes they are, as well, called “...hazard scenarios ...” Even mild discrete deviations or not are thoroughly studied in granularity of detail too, documented and continuously considered. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 173. 173 To the greatest degree possible by the respective prepared minds, they leave — within their materiel possibilities — little spatial and temporal dimensions for fortuitousness and randomness and pseudoramdoness. After all, one must realize that they are not a primarily financial system “player,” but an institutional incumbent mostly exercising organic ownership and profit of fixed and liquid assets. Profit and lucre (monetary reward or gain; money.) are beyond indispensable. Without lucre, NGOs will never be able to make charitable donations, governments would not be able to pay for unemployment insurance benefits. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 174. 174 Within my professional experience, I have found that lucre-centric billionaires have a huge humanitarian heart, enabling possibilities for the socially excluded (disfranchised ones), not within the realm of duty of them, but within the realm of duty of government incumbents. Back to the White Swan hardcore: Clearly, the financial aspects and those of their liquid assets were also important to them. The high-raking executives and applied scientists of most of these global institutions know that insurance and reinsurance companies have rampant speculative financial practices and ambitions as if they were investment banks, just to cite one example. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 175. 175 And, as a consequence, many of them displace (divert) the legally-stipulated “...premium reserves...” (financial provisions originally established to indemnify the covered losses to insureds and reinsureds) and in order to seize additional and unlawful gains out of said reserves. All of the preceding without these parties actually getting in proactive and agile engagement of countermeasuring threats (including intractable threats). These insurance and reinsurance companies do the prior by financially re-engineering the allocated portions of the premiums designated to pay for covered losses. As many (not all) insurance and reinsurance companies doctor and manipulate the sacred By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 176. 176 premium reserves, they make extraordinary and illegitimate earnings while losing great solvency and their ultimate ability to indemnify duly covered losses. Most insurance and reinsurance companies view themselves as enjoying first-order blood- related “...family relationships...” with banks, stock market firms and many other private “ … players ...” within the ever-speculative financial system. And when the global economy and financial system are even further brought down, What and where are the indemnity payments that the insured parties are going to come from the insurers? Most probably in some fact pockets hidden in relished fiscal paradises. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 177. 177 For serious industrial corporations, mired by intensive intellectual and fixed asset capitals, such global malfeasance aforementioned is a like an abject financial-engineering “...glitch ...”. Global corporations do not desire their corporate insurance policies to be subjected to outright wrongdoing and other ups and downs (whether systemic or not) by any "...agent..." (gambler) of the financial system, chiefly the insurance and reinsurance companies. Financial systems become a so-called “ … systemic risk ...” by the expressed doctoring and gambling deeds of and by the primordial incumbents in such financial systems. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 178. 178 Consequently, management by insurance and reinsurance companies is NEVER beyond- insurance risk management. Thus, it was insidious mediocrity because this petroleum group's executives strongly believed that these risks can be stopped before morphing into disruption potentials if a previous, early-on (beforehand) appropriate work was previously designed and in place. The frequently cited White Swans are exploited by Royal Dutch Shell to facilitate one example quickly. Like many governmental agencies and other prominent global corporations, Citgo's PDVSA did not tolerate a “...financial system...”-driven risk management option. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 179. 179 All of these institutions wanted a central and on-site (in-company) solution through systems interdisciplinary approach with the applied omniscience perspective, enabled by a reliable external turnkey consultant and strategist. The applied omniscience notion is vastly and continuously used by agencies and corporations in the Military-Industrial Complex. Yes, by law and in general, you still need “worker's compensation,” “directors and officers,” “kidnap and ransom,” “legal expenses,” “product liability” and “life insurance.” BUT NOT IN PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND ONLY IN ORGANIZATIONAL AND BUSINESS SETTINGS, “...Transformative By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 180. 180 and Integrative Risk Management...” (explained hereby) lucratively turns corporate and institutional insurance irrelevant and worthless. The sensible majority of corporate and institutional risks — through TAIRM — can be optimally managed without insurance and reinsurance. In the process, you are additionally making a huge saving by not paying exaggerated unearned and undeserved commissions and bonuses to insurance and reinsurance brokers. “...Brokers...” (“...sales reps...”) of what? Indeed! Insurance or Insurance-Based Risk Unmanagement is the old guard while By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 181. 181 Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is the vanguard, today! We are all professionally and managerially concerned about legalistic and litigious: regulations, frameworks, zeitgeists and Weltanschauungs. But these are not the only perils requiring holistic countermeassuring in an all-out wars “...waged...” within the theaters of operations (including intractable threats). If a corporation believes that Cyber or Cybersecurity Insurance will suffice, then one will know that the CEO is dysfunctional. And Corporate or Personal Catastrophic Insurance is raising the ante in a bad gamble. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 182. 182 Conversely, Xerox' V.P., Mr. Brooks greatly articulates the point by stating: “ … In 2013, more than 740 million private records were exposed, making it the worst year in terms of data breaches recorded. This year may be even worse. Two of the most visible data breaches were from retail operators Target and Neiman Marcus. The forensic case studies on these incidents are still being examined. In data breaches, there is no one size fits all solution for addressing causation and future mitigation. Data breaches come from insider threats, negligence in following security protocols, or, most often the case, from outside attacks. Each industry is also unique. A case in point is the energy industry. Of particular concern is that three-quarters of energy companies and utilities have experienced at least one data By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 183. 183 breach in the past 12 months according to a Ponemon Report. According to that same report, 'a mere 21% of global energy and utilities organizations feel that their existing controls are able to protect against exploits and attacks through smart grid and smart meter-connected systems.' The danger of cyber-attacks on the energy grid and transportation sectors requires more situational awareness and enactment of lessons learned. The implications of failure can be more damaging and potentially catastrophic compared to retail data breaches...” Back to the White Swan hardcore: And issues bestowed by violation of Governance, Compliance and Controls also required a much more holistic By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 184. 184 countermeassuring (including intractable threats). By way of illustration, only managing issues concerning the abidance of: Sarbanes— Oxley Act, Patriot Act, Governance, Compliance, Controls and Intellectual Property is never ever “...beyond-insurance risk management...” Nearly all lawyers and economists see "...risk management and insurance..." as a financial and legal approach. My late father, my existing brother, sister and other close family members are litigation Jurisprudentiae Doctor. Consequently, through inner-most family reasons, I hold barristers very highly. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 185. 185 Back to the White Swan hardcore: Just about all accountants see "...risk management and insurance..." as a comptroller's methodology. The majority of actuaries and statisticians see "...risk management and insurance..." as a statistical methodology. Both of them declared to be engaged with Stochastic Modeling, also known as the Monte Carlo method, to tinker parlance into sophisticated past-lathered “...historical records...” with the anumerical a posteriori perspective. Most auditors see "...risk management and insurance..." as a governance and compliance and intellectual property methodology. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 186. 186 To the highest degree possible, economists and financiers see "...risk management and insurance..." as a speculative and highly doctorable financial transaction. Any financially-driven-service at all is always extremely doctorable and immensely manipulable. Back to the White Swan hardcore: The great majority of corporate planners see "...risk management and insurance..." as a strategy and planning approach. Nearly all human resources managers see "...risk management and insurance..." as a psychological approach. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 187. 187 CIOs, CISOs and CTOs, I.T. managers and I.T. risk managers see "...risk management and insurance..." as a computational methodology. Almost all lawyers, economists, financiers, accountants, business administrators, auditors, corporate planners, actuaries, human resources managers, CIOs, CISOs, CTOs, I.T. managers and I.T. risk managers are not sufficiently right because their focus and pursuit fail to consider the applied physicist' and engineer's all-rounded criteria. The engineering-oriented mentality is best in any field of Hard Science and Soft Science, Low Tech and Hi Tech, including Social Sciences and History. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 188. 188 Beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM comprehensively consider lawfulness (including intellectual properties), Sarbanes— Oxley Act, Patriot Act, governance, compliance, controls, business administration, accounting, auditing, statistics, actuarial sciences, corporate planning, human resources, economics and finance, I.T. and technology, as well. As a by-product, TAIRM takes into serious consideration everything related to the efficiency, progress, growth and seamless sustainability of the institutional clients. Beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM contemplate many, many other proprietary aspects not discussed here. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 189. 189 Virtually all lawyers, economists, financiers, business administrators, accountants, auditors, corporate planners, actuaries, human resources managers, CIOs, CISOs, CTOs, I.T. managers and I.T. risk managers are NEVER into beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM. Beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM are ultimately truth-seeking interdisciplinary methodologies through the systems interdisciplinary approach and with the applied omniscience perspective. Many (not all): prominent scientists, academicians, scholars, linguists, polyglots, researchers, engineers, thought leaders, historians, philosophers, authors, CEOs, inventors, states-people, lawyers, economists, financiers, business administrators, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 190. 190 accountants, auditors, corporate planners, actuaries, human resources managers, CIOs, CISOs, CTOs, I.T. managers and I.T. risk managers seek accuracy — either directly or indirectly — in adversarial modes by going to court and “...resolving...” the loss (disruption potential) in over-legalistic and over-litigious “...boxing rings...” (that is, seeking contentious adversarial truths). Law and complexity: “...The law is recognizing the trend toward complexity of life and the inability of the average person to recognize and overcome risks associated with it … Whereas our forefathers could knowingly inspect the horseshoes a blacksmith nailed on their horses’ hoofs, the average person today cannot knowledgeably inspect a microwave By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 191. 191 oven or a car’s automatic transmission....” [226] SUBSEQUENTLY, WHILE ADVERSARIAL TRUTH IS SUBOPTIMAL OR INEFFECTUAL AND EVEN LUDICROUS, TECHNICAL TRUTH IS OPTIMAL. Casually, business administrators (managers) and many investors “...relish...” outsourcing and off-shoring. But neither outsourcing nor off-shoring is beyond-insurance risk management. Equally, neither process re-engineering, nor cost-cutting, nor continuous improvement is beyond-insurance risk management. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 192. 192 In addition, some major national economies are being currently ruined by previous massive outsourcing and off-shoring engagements. Ruins have also been inflicted by un-walked talks about public education reform for the past forty years, chiefly in the pontificated yet dysfunctional West. Furthermore, TAIRM deeply examines the enterprise’s core business. However, all honorable professionals hereby mentioned are clever and have outstanding contributions to make in society. Not separately but jointly they have a partial role to play in beyond-insurance risk management. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 193. 193 And actual and advanced "...beyond- insurance risk management..." is just OPTIMAL PER SE MANAGEMENT. The aforementioned oil group wanted to preemptively countermeasure every hazard and risk optimally (early on, that is: beforehand). Subsequently, I expanded, revised, upgraded and enhanced greatly this practice and interdisciplinary approach, after twenty-one years of applied experience, and carefully designed, developed and created my proprietary methodology and professional, trade secret, "...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management..." (TAIRM) back in 2005 (continually updated and upgraded to date). By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 194. 194 Simply stated, it is secret because it is proprietary. This own interdisciplinary approach I seamlessly coalesce with the scientific futuring perspective (skill, expertise). My researched Scientific Futuring definition is this: “...Scientific Futuring is in place to develop a scientific method for studying the future. Scientific Futuring comprises: 1) an inductive process consisting of a number of accurate observations which have been consolidated, or generalized, into empirical laws or statements of underlying relationships between key variables and 2) A deductive, intuitive process by which the scientific “investigator” places his observations into a By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 195. 195 larger system of thought, or theory based on fundamental axioms. Scientific Futuring is instituted with the purpose of seizing knowledge of effects through causes. This method of Scientific Futuring, made up of a process employing the classical scientific steps of induction and deduction, and reinforced by additional steps of contextualization and evolutionization, is a battle-plan for study of tomorrow’s evolving world...” Hidden and ignored risks most authors fail to elaborate on: There is a great risk for all sorts of business enterprises. Unfortunately, most practitioners of Risk Unmanagement (insurance and insurance-based risk management) and Risk Management (beyond-insurance risk By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 196. 196 management) — along with folks into planning and implementing Strategy — , fail to consider gravely and prevalently. Those risks stem from the war-waging campaign presented and put forward by industry's and other industry's competitors. As with any other risks, these hazards the manager most foresee, prepare for and get ready to exploit, transforming downsides into substantial upsides. Extremely important subsequent addendum: “...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (TAIRM) is also implemented in order to prevent technological and other surprises to the savvy organization seeking this advice and service by TAIRM, but also to By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 197. 197 create disruptively technological surprises (managerial '...Sputnik Moments...') for the enterprise’s competitors...” Under TAIRM '...Sputnik Moments...' and '...Eureka Moments …' are coalesced and hugely exploited for the sake of the core business' sustainable lucre. In related manner: This notion is better understood when the axiom: “... strategy is a function of a grander beyond-insurance risk management program and not the other way around...” is fully accepted and practiced. In one line, Transformative and Integrative Risk Management (TAIRM) is absolutely and recursively into: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 198. 198 (a) “ … Skunkworks … ,” (b) “ … Space- Age, ...” (c) “ … Wargaming … ”, (d) into- Perfectibility Technocratic, Plutocratic, Stratocratic, Meritocratic, Non-theocratic and (e) Omnimode, Methodological, Sequential and Dense Full-Orbited Management Blitzkrieging Problem-Solving Methodology that Transforms Black Swans (sub-optimal unmanagement) into Outright White Swans (optimal management). A little definition: “ ... Blitzkrieg is, a German MEME, war- waging White Swan Corporate Strategy conducted with great speed and force; specifically: a violent techno-surprise offensive by massed brick-and-mortar forces and through digitized ground and World-Wide Web By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 199. 199 forces in close beyond-perfection coordination ...” Why do? “ ...Full-Orbited Management Blitzkrieging Problem-Solving Methodology that Transforms Black Swans (sub-optimal unmanagement) into Outright White Swans (optimal management)...” Because: “...They [, strong Fortune-7 Corporate CEOs, ] don’t have too many options other than to upgrade [their minds, methods, risk management, strategies, innovation, technologies and core businesses] to make sure they are efficient enough to compete. It is a game of survival [done with legitimacy, constructiveness, kindness and grace]...” Brackets are of the author. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 200. 200 Back to the White Swan hardcore: Transformative and Integrative Risk Management interdisciplinary interdisciplinary problem-solving methodology greatly turbo- charges: over-achieving thinkers and over- arching managers. Ergo, as there are huge existential disruptions everywhere, nonlinearly increasingly so, and as it is observed by the Disruptional Singularity, there is no time for entertained discourses against the problem-solving auspiciousness by people with this wondrous cosmological personal traits of and/or concerning: a) Functionalized Autism and Asperger's syndrome, b) Huge Ego, and c) Gargantuan Self-Esteem. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 201. 201 Oxford University's Faculty of Philosophy Professor Nick Bostrom on the Disruptional Singularity: “... Because of accelerating technological progress [, given the great advancement of hard sciences of exactness,], humankind may be rapidly [or better yet: with absolute guarantee] approaching a critical phase in its career. In addition to well-known [humanly induced] threats [, a multitude of black swans unmanaged,] such as nuclear holocaust, the prospects of radically transforming [and exponential] technologies like nanotech systems and machine intelligence present us with unprecedented opportunities [positive dangers and upside futures] and risks [negative dangers and downside futures]. Our future [right now, and the future of our children and grandchildren], and whether we will have By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 202. 202 a future at all [that is to mean: if we humans preemptively destroy black swans to preclude the Disruptional Singularity that precludes the Technological Singularity], may well be determined by how we deal [as we are 95% engaged in worshiping black swans] with these challenges [that have a huge outright potential for White Swan only if we get our acts together, beforehand]. In the case of radically transforming technologies, a better understanding of the transition dynamics from a human to a '...posthuman ...' [understating that posthuman is an euphemisms to (a) Transbiologicals and (b) Trans-exobiologicals] society is needed. Of particular [sine qua non] importance is to know [and execute] where the pitfalls [mostly: black swans permitted] are: the ways in which things [absence of will and intelligence to secure White Swans] could go terminally wrong [and, hence, bestowing By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 203. 203 Apocalypse]. While we have had long exposure to various personal, local, and endurable global hazards [given our lack of will to manage what we readily know], this paper analyzes a recently emerging category: that of existential risks [better embodied by the Disruptional Singularity]. These are threats [better known as black swans] that could cause our extinction or destroy the potential of Earth-originating intelligent life. Some of these threats are relatively well known while others, including some of the gravest, have gone almost unrecognized [the almost unrecognized are so only the philosophers, not true rocket scientists]. Existential risks have a cluster of features that make ordinary risk management ineffective. A final section of this paper discusses several ethical and policy implications. A clearer understanding [and, especially, management] of the threat [black By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 204. 204 swan] picture will enable us to formulate better [White Swan] strategies ...” Brackets are of the author. Back to the White Swan hardcore: That discourse can be entertained at a forthcoming Renaissance, not now. Going against this idea will be outrageously counterproductive to ascertain the non- annihilation of Earth's locals. People who destroy, eternally beforehand, outrageous Black Swans, engaging into super-natural and preter-natural preparations for known and unknown Outliers, thus observing — in all practicality — the successful and prevailing White Swan and Transformative and Integrative Risk By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 205. 205 Management interdisciplinary problem-solving methodology, include: (1.-) FEMA (U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency), (2.-) "… British Doomsday Preppers … ", (3.-) "… Canadian Doomsday Preppers …", (4.-) "… Australian Doomsday Preppers …", and (5.-) "… American Doomsday Preppers … ". Ignoramus of supine ignorance outrageously satirized, satanized, vilified, and bastardized the above: (1.-), (2.-), (3.-) and (4.-). These are right on the lucrative money. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 206. 206 White Swans are always getting prepared for Unknown and Known Outliers, and MOST FLUIDLY changing the theater of operation by permanently updating and upgrading said preparations. In doing far-fetched yet verifiable by applied omniscience, say, most rigorous Emergency Preparedness, White Swan creatively and kindly, beforehand, leaves without any effect non-White Swan's anti-Christ preparations, characterized by so-called Stasis and Homeostasis. White Swan's Emergency Preparedness is into INSANELY FLUID impermanent preparations and overhauling and re-engineering of said preparations. My “...far-fetched ...” definition: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 207. 207 “ … Far-fetched is improbable in nature; unlikely. But given the emergent as-of-now nature of the Omniverse, far-fetched is omniverseral nature's most probable and so probable to tectonically reform our cosmovisions, in front and beyond our smartest observations, and other constellations believed indisputable by our folly human assumptions ...” An example of a Far-fetched Theater of Operations ensues: Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus' sentence, “...Si vis pacem, para bellum ...” has a non- Wikipedia interpretive translation: “… If you want peace, make outlandish and far-fetched preparations to wage war ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 208. 208 Better stated yet: “… If you want peace [and outright peaceful and constructive White Swans], make outlandish [and beforehand and unprecedented-ly so] and far-fetched [omniscient] preparations to wage [and scientifically outsmart] war [, in order to preemptively land tons of continuous and sustained corporate sequestration of cash, thus rendering every type of black swan lucrative] ...” Brackets are of the author. Back to the White Swan hardcore: As per the Royal Academy of the Spanish Language Dictionary, by omnimode is to say, “ … that embraces and consists of everything ...” [223] By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 209. 209 Hence, this is non-“...status quo...” management. I greatly enjoy Oscar Wilde's The Picture of Dorian Gray. Every time I watch this movie and others, I make relentless notes. Paraphrasing the smart script, I will assert, “... Do not scientifically audit the outputted intelligence of my concepts and outcomes, but the density of my reasoning and pragmatic dynamics in execution ...” LDG Management's CEO, Mr. Walter (Nardi) Suydam has a great understating of this important term. Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 210. 210 Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is into outright perfectionism, macro-management and micro-management. When dealing with exponential unthinkable and thinkable threats posed to Corporation, the minutia-related detail can be a large devastating aftermath, expressed in loss of: human lives and other corporate assets. For example, the tini-wini adversarial Cambrian discussion against “...micro- management...”, under outright Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is radically banned. It is infinitely more lucrative the futile deliberations about the genders-identification possessed by Angels and Archangels. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 211. 211 Back to the White Swan hardcore: While I mentioned the Royal Academy of the Spanish Language Dictionary, my two most pivotal dictionaries are: The American Heritage (by 200-plus Canadian and American PhDs.) and The Oxford Dictionary. In secondary and tertiary usage and within the Newtonian Lingua Franca, I also use 17 (seventeen) physical (brick-and-mortar) English dictionaries and many others that are in digital format. Additionally, major language dictionaries of the West, including Latin, German, French, Castilian, Spanish and Portuguese are also observed. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 212. 212 It should never be expected for the author to write like a Tudor Family's Patrician Patriarch. However, it should be expected for the author to get the message across without a fail. A little comment on Language Style and Grammar. With the sole exception of the auspicious Basque language (Basque people insists that they are the primordial inhabitants, heirs and owners of Atlantis), every Indo-European Language (including English, German, French, Italian, Castilian and Spanish) has a marked propensity to be written as proper Latin Language. As per most of them, they are the ONLY “...Chosen One(s) ...” People and Culture. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 213. 213 Basque language is better known (exactly) as “... Euskara ...” My Basque blood does NOT think, at all, that it is right to claim the Atlantis in any direct or indirect way. My family does not like myths unless they are in sacred scriptures and taken as such. Speaking of Basque, the author has foreparents from: Corsica, France, Italy, Basque Region, Murcia (Spain) and England. Oddly enough: The most serious scientific and noted establishment of the U.S. uses this language priority: FIRST LANGUAGE.— English. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 214. 214 SECOND LANGUAGE.— German. THIRD LANGUAGE.— Russian. FOURTH LANGUAGE.— French. Back to the White Swan hardcore: As well: As per the persistent request of some amazing contacts, including a great female executive CEO and her male medical doctors, I have taken numerous Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) personality tests. At the begging the results always came along indicating that I was a: INTJ (“...The Scientist” or … “...The Mastermind...”). Then, through most profound and thorough analyzes, the tests results were in a bit of bewilderment as they were showing a By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 215. 215 personality that is about: 50% INFJ (the highly-principled Protector and Counselor) and 50% INTJ (above). I take this as a fun story that makes a little bit of fun but I am most difficult to stereotype, box or label. And also on the Baconian Lingua Franca: Unlike the Castilian, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese, the English and German languages are EXTREMELY MNEMONICS. In such a way that when dealing with serious complications, complexities and uncertainties pertaining to hard science, hi tech and breakthrough techniques, the English and German languages are more than indispensable for these purposes. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 216. 216 Once you mastered the Latin Language and other Latin-based language(s) and when your primary concern is English, you will hit a limit. In order to disrupt that threshold imposed to the English language, you must master the German language to further underpin your own English language ability. When your primary language is German, then you must disrupt the literary embargo by outright embracing Jeffersonian English. Back to the White Swan hardcore: While others insist on timidly “...thinking outside the box...” (inconsequential), TAIRM focuses on strong-sense and critico-creative By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 217. 217 actionable womb-to-tomb epidemiological thinking and execution! Not thinking out of the box BUT womb-to-tomb and yet epidemiological reasoning in the theater of operations. “...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management..." (TAIRM) is a methodology conceived of, designed, created and instituted, at all times and by any measure, independently. To arrive to this point, massive intellectual and pecuniary own resources and efforts have ALREADY been invested. “...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” (TAIRM) thoroughly deals By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 218. 218 with content, process and context, among many other considerations. Also, some large enterprises as well as petroleum corporations (whose brand names are notoriously public) have a full-scope organization in place to deal with some hazards that are not too public in the every- day-person arena. By way of illustration, this organization is sometimes termed as "...Integral Protection..." (I.P.) For the sake of convenience, I will address “I.P.” meaning Integral Protection and not Intellectual Property. Others call it “... Corporate Integrity ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 219. 219 I.P. is primarily a preemptively preventative function and responsibility of corporate (private) law enforcement, civil defense and corporate first responders (including own policemen, intelligentsia, counter- intelligentsia, medics, civil defense stewards, firefighters and other first respondents). I.P. operates systemic and systematic countermeasuring of both external and internal threats (including intractable threats). To illustrate this function and responsibility better, I.P. takes care of the tangible and intangible integrity of the operating building(s) and corresponding premises and other assets, including the personnel and in-situ contractors and allies. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 220. 220 If one employee is selling trade secrets or consuming illegal substances, I.P. is watching and acting upon. I.P. does corporate intelligence, counterintelligence and operates on it. To the express end of enforced I.P., Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is into hot-pursuit of post-hiring (of Andres' professional and intellectual services) into (a) Probing, (b) Omnimode Auditing and (c) Due Diligence. As a result of that Andres found three most- senior-ed Executives taking huge bribes from European firms. One was a Chartered Vice President with the first-name initial “P.” And the two other ones were Chartered Directors with the first-name initial “A” and “U”. Andres By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 221. 221 spoke about it to the worldwide chairman and officially reported the grave irregularity to the worldwide Chartered Comptroller. Back to the White Swan hardcore: I.P. incumbents are, for example, also responsible for designing, developing and instituting corporate plans pertaining to emergency preparedness, emergency response, disaster recovery, business restoration (partial function), business continuity (partial function) and business sustainability (partial function) to give you a brief idea. I.P. also supervises and controls road and air ambulances and other medical and non- medical road and air-borne evacuation systems. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 222. 222 I.P. is also responsible for preventive exercises and drills for massive evacuations in case of earthquakes, floods, storms, tornadoes, fires and riots, hurricanes, wildfires, home fires, blackouts, biological threats, and terrorism attacks, among other perils. In dealing with Public-Sector I.P., Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a magnificent tool to institute and embolden rigorous “... Law and Order ...” When a worker gets gravely burned, he or she needs to be treated with extreme care, from the site of occurrence and evacuation through and to the most specialized medical center. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 223. 223 The standard evacuation vehicle is 95% of the cases is an expensive helicopter that is able to fly safely during nighttime, for example. Transformative and Integrative Risk Management fully contemplates, tackles, advises and operates on pivotal enhancement of the corporate provisions by Integral Protection organizations (sometimes called “ … departments … ” and others “ … divisions … ”). In such a fashion: However, in extremely huge Fortune-100 global corporations that I have as turnkey consulting clients, they do not use the term " ...department ...." By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 224. 224 For instance, in all practicality they speak about (brief list): 1.- The Finance Organization, 2.- The Integral Protection Organization (also known as “... Corporate Integrity ...”), 3.- The Human Resources Organization, 4.- The Corporate Planning Organization, 5.- The Marketing Organization, 6.- The IT Organization, 7.- The Public Affairs Organization (by far, beyond: Corporate Communications), 8.- Etc. And they prefer to use the term "affiliate companies" or "subsidiary companies" instead of "divisions". By way of example, they have: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 225. 225 A.- The R&D&I subsidiary company, B.- The telecommunication subsidiary companies (global oil companies have own telephony-beyond companies), C.- The Internationalization [for globalization purposes] subsidiary company, D.- The on-site corporate university subsidiary company (with its own private, savant Provost, Researchers, PhD-ed Professors. The Provost is, clearly, the subsidiary-company's CEO and Chairman), E.- The maritime subsidiary company, F.- The industrial-medicine subsidiary company (in one corporation, there were a headcount of 300-plus consulting and operating medics. The CEO and Chairman is a M.D.), G.- The "trader" subsidiary company, H.- Etc. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 226. 226 They even have, under the umbrella of the parent and holding company, subsidiary companies that can readily enter joint ventures, strategic alliances or coalitions or consortia with a multitude of competing or noncompeting corporations. Back to the White Swan hardcore: Have you ever seen an insurance or reinsurance company with these major risk- countermeasuring duties and services before an organizational client (including intractable threats)? And only and partly because of that, insurance and reinsurance companies are, by far, outside of the realm of beyond-insurance risk management and TAIRM. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 227. 227 In White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, there is a great of differentiated usage of Minimax. Let us define it: “... Minimax is a decision rule used in decision theory, game theory, statistics and philosophy for minimizing the possible loss for a worst case (maximum loss) scenario. Alternatively, it can be thought of as maximizing the minimum gain (maximin or MaxMin). Originally formulated for two-player zero-sum game theory, covering both the cases where players take alternate moves and those where they make simultaneous moves, it has also been extended to more complex games and to general decision making in the presence of uncertainty …. In the theory of simultaneous games, a minimax strategy is a mixed strategy By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 228. 228 which is part of the solution to a zero-sum game. In zero-sum games, the minimax solution is the same as the Nash equilibrium ...” Back to the White Swan hardcore: TAIRM, too, has vast managerial applications for law enforcement and counter-terrorism “ ...activities ...” However, the majority of incumbents of public office are in the backyard playing political “games” and don't possess neither a legitimate interest, nor an appropriate comprehension of techniques, technologies and methodologies, conducive to more stable “...national security...” doctrines and policies in actuality. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 229. 229 Contrariwise, some (not all) advanced exemplary democracies in the West, while arguing that they are protecting national security and their motherlands, are being turned into «de facto» Police States through many supercomputing hardware and software systems. Many incumbents of public office don't even have a designated budget to act upon. Additionally and by way of example, Asian presidents are techies and nerdies that fluidly communicate on Science, Technology, Engineering and Math issues (that is, STEM careers). The now-coined STEM theorem was a gargantuan recommendation frequently appearing in Napoleon Bonaparte's secretive letters. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 230. 230 In the mean time, the counterparts in the West are chiefly held hostage to law, sociology and economics, with an overwhelming powerless feeling in technologically advanced conversations, considerations and negotiations. All of this about the heads of state here have been publicly substantiated by Bill Gates. Let us get one word's clear-eyed concept: The cradle-to-the-grave definition of technology that I can offer is this: “... Technology is instituted in order to solve practical problems (both mild and complex ones, whether randomized, pseudo- randomized, serendipitous or pseudo- serendipitous or not) — especially in industry, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 231. 231 commerce, economy, science, technology, society, religion, and politics (including geopolitics) —, the methodical practical application of the scientific method, mathematical principles, practical sciences and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective and beyond, as well as to achieve practical ends such as the design, manufacture, and operation of efficient and economical structures, machines, processes, and systems …. The profession of and or the work performed by any engineer ...” If you want a briefer definition, please see this: " ... the methodical and systematic application of science in order to solve practical problems …" For example, Stanford University's own definition is: “...Technology is the means by By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 232. 232 which organizations accomplish work or render [known] inputs into [desirable] outputs …” Brackets are of the author. The protagonist in assuring that known inputs are transformed into desirable outputs is throughput. A little real-life account here: U.S. President George Herbert Walker Bush's (41st U.S. president) Ambassador and Andres Agostini? Given the utter recommendation of PDVSA, Venezuelan President Carlos Andres Perez (1989 – 1993) asked me to reform the management practices by every public hospital in Venezuela. President Perez believed that in order to change management By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 233. 233 practices for business-like ones, it was better someone that was not a medic but a manager and management consultant. To that end, he appointed me as: Presidential Blue Ribbon Committee Chairman. He ordered me to go and visit the Health Secretaries of the most important nations with a proven-track public system, including Canada and the United Kingdom. That also gave me strong leeway to give him inputs and candor about some matters that, as per my opinion, were going wrong with the beyond-insurance risk management of fixed assets of the State-Owned Global Petroleum Corporation PDVSA. I cannot disclose that but he thanked me and acted upon it fairly quickly. Somewhat we became friendly as I was not involved with politics but technical matters. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 234. 234 While holding one of our private meetings, his private secretary suddenly came in: President's Secretary: “...Mister President, the U.S. Ambassador is in the antechamber. And he says that he has an urgent message to give you ...” President Perez: “...Send him in right away ...” The U.S. Ambassador came in to the President's Official Office and: U.S. Ambassador: “...Mr. President, President Bush wants you to know that the U.S. will be delivering a military campaign in Iraq. And he wanted you, sir, to know so in advance ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 235. 235 President Perez: “...Thank you, Mr. Ambassador, I understand that and thank for telling me ...” Then President Perez and I spent some fifteen minutes thereafter as our meeting and life went on and back to normal. I could not believe that I was being a first-level eyewitness to some serious geopolitics. Back to the White Swan hardcore: The reader must remember that when dealing with known inputs and desired outputs, the targeted throughputs must also be addressed in detail and advance. Again, throughputs transform known inputs into desirable outputs. Besides: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 236. 236 As the past and the present are NEVER a script for the future, retrospective analyzes and historic data (a posteriori data provided by actuaries and statisticians) are always being disrupted by the final trends and outcomes. Why retrospective [a posteriori] analyzes don't work: “...After-the-fact [retrospective and hence a posteriori] no longer works .... Bring it back if you have any trouble with it, and I’ll fix it somehow,’ was the standard comment when you used to pick up a bicycle, automobile, food mixer, or lawn mower from the repair shop. And the repairman meant what he said. He was confident that if he had overlooked anything or made a mistake of any kind, he would get a second shot at fixing .... The By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 237. 237 ‘second shot’ is a luxury that no longer exists in many businesses. You get only one chance — after that, you’ll be talking only with attorneys, insurance agents, or bankers ...” And: “ … Life used to be simple. You knew your customers on a first-name basis. Your product or service was a relatively simple one — understood by both you and your customer. Your name and reputation were sufficient to cover any error or oversight .... But the world has become complex, too complex to allow such comfortable relationships. Consumer expectations are matching the complexities. Instantaneous news coverage of accidents and losses virtually precludes the private, out- of-sight settlement of risk effects that had By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 238. 238 previously allowed the after-the-fact resolution of risk to succeed ...” And: “ … The breadth in that old idea is rapidly being squeezed out — like the inevitable tightening of a boa constrictor around its victim .... The price for public exposure of loss is high. Managers have begun to realize that risk must be examined formally and resolved beforehand rather than being settled after-the- fact. And they learn from others. It was the 1982 sinking of the offshore drilling rig Ocean Ranger that spurred EXXON top management to order a systematic evaluation of their offshore drilling risks … Even though EXXON does not own such rigs, it recognized that even conducting operations aboard them created risks that demanded before-the-fact By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 239. 239 identification, evaluation, and control....” [226] Brackets are of the author. Hence: Please remember: “... THE FUTURE IS NOT AN ECHO OF THE PAST...” So, instead of retrospective data [a posteriori], it is much more important prospective data [a priori]. Although I consider both. It is also more important to me qualitative analyzes than quantitative ones. Prospection comprises the a priori of-all- functions exploration of future possibilities based on current evidence. (Translated by the author). [222] By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 240. 240 In all truth, when one is doing optimal translation, he or she is rather doing Optimal Interpretive Translation. And, by the same token, when one is doing Foreign-Language Interpretation, he or she is into Optimal Translated Interpretation. To this end: Coming back to the point and believe it or not, I have met several actuaries that fully agree with my position. They also insist that the retrospective analyzes [a posteriori] have been displaced by the prospective analyzes [a priori]. In today’s technologically-driven world, strategic trend evaluation cannot be done using only algorithms. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 241. 241 Xerox Vice President, Mr. Charles (Chuck) Brooks, has an invaluable point to make: “ … We live in world of algorithms. The recent retail cyber breach at Target demonstrated that as consumers we are becoming more and more dependent upon digital commerce. Our banking accounts, credit cards, and financial daily activities are interconnected. We are all increasingly vulnerable from hackers, phishers, and malware proliferating across all commercial verticals. Identity management, authentication, and resilience will certainly be key focus areas to protect individual consumers as we move closer to the encompassing connectivity of almost every device we use in ' ...The Internet of Things …' ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 242. 242 Back to the White Swan hardcore: Numerous nuances, gray-area meanings and fluxes must be fully considered via the biological mind, regardless. You can transfer many thought experiments to your computer and still, given the amazing level and number of nuances and subtleties and gray areas and patterns (awaiting recognition) — as well as the covert and overt relationships facilitated by the preceding — by present-day and real-world dynamic complexities, you won't get the right output yet. Arguably, at the hardcore of scientific futuring and transformative and integrative risk management, in place there is (1) A science, (2) An art, and (3) A practice. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 243. 243 Undoubtedly, once the human brain and body — including the human sensors — are inexhaustibly reverse-engineered and the new software templates are use in Strong Artificial Intelligence and Hard Quatum Supercomputing, the biological brain will then be superseded by several orders of magnitude. To this utter and current purpose, Albert Einstein observes, "...Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted, counts..." Without perpetual womb-to-tomb Analytics, Diagnostics and Prognosis, Organizational Decision Making will be flawed! By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 244. 244 I do take into account both. I also practice “... Analytics ...” and “...Diagnostics...” and have nascently become interested on what Cambridge University' and Royal Society's Sir Martin Rees, PhD. calls the “...Science of Complexity...” I have a compiled definition for it. “ … Complexity Science is the systematic study of the nature and behavior of the material and physical universe, based on observation, experiment, and measurement, and the formulation of laws to describe these facts in general terms with the utter purpose of instituting the perusal of the phenomena which emerge from a collection of interacting objects … Complexity expresses a condition of numerous elements in a system and numerous forms of relationships among the By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 245. 245 elements … The use of the term complex is often confused with the term complicated. In today's systems, this is the difference between myriad connecting 'stovepipes' and effective 'integrated' solutions. This means that complex is the opposite of independent, while complicated is the opposite of simple …. While this has led some fields to come up with specific definitions of complexity, there is a more recent movement to regroup observations from different fields to study complexity in itself, whether it appears in anthills, human brains, or stock markets. One such interdisciplinary group of fields is relational order theories ...” Once again, TAIRM is vastly more into qualitative analyzes than quantitative analyzes. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 246. 246 You see, every problem has an underlying mechanism. Once you deeply comprehend how it operates, you can influence (via throughput) on the final outcomes (from known inputs to desired outputs) to your continuous advantage. And every problem is a function of ignorance, sometimes a function of learned ignorance. It can be logically argued that the term “...throughput...” has a Latin language equivalent by the term modus operandi. Within my theater of operations and while focused at servicing corporate clients, I always do (i) analyzes and (ii) meta-analyzes. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 247. 247 THEREFORE: Everything in the corporate theater of operations has an unfailing clear explication and corresponding White Swan plan to exploit it. Back to the White Swan hardcore: To this end, GE's chairman and CEO Jack Welch PhD. also mentioned, “...To get to the guts of why things happen...” Advanced mathematical models are partly useful if the narrative and alphanumerical data has been correctly translated into numerical data. Pervasive Information and Computational Technology are crucial. Narrative data has an By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 248. 248 infinite graded plethora of nuances and angles. Likewise and getting back to the core of this work: I have done extensive and expensive research globally throughout many places, institutions and years, from the U.S. marketplace, Lloyd's of London, Swiss RE, Tokyo Marine Group, and way further beyond to make a lengthy story brief. Once I went to a millenarian bookstore in the city of most-enthusiastic London where I purchased a large number of specialized books (about 45 titles) regarding Insurance and Risk Management. Those titles, enablers of hidden and covert knowledge, were not foundable in North American bookstores. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 249. 249 When my Bostonian ally asked me what I was trying to do as he got informed on my breathtaking literary acquisition trough my Londoner colleague, he posited a tiny question: “...Andres, what are you trying to do …? The underlying background of the preceding episode came to me when my amazing father told me: “...Andres, whenever you find you cannot deal with a subject matter, do me a favor and buy and study an encyclopedia on it ...” I have and practice his suggestion abundantly, daily. Dr. Agostini was a Juris Doctor, and a (an): Americanologist, Britishlogist, and Sovietologist. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 250. 250 Back to the White Swan hardcore: I found that phoned question most silly. He became concerned as he thought I was going to terminate him in order to become focused on a different and more lucrative business enterprise, then ruling him out. My quick and accurate reply to him was: “ ...Coupe Cosmos ...” I got into that purchase in order to underpin our alliance not to dismiss it. The White Swan hardcore is returned: I have also become directly knowledgeable (not “ … bookish, ...” or encyclopedic only but also factual, practical, empirical, and as per the educated battlefield practicalities) of beyond-insurance risk management practices by many large, industrial enterprises and agencies such as NASA. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 251. 251 The NASA Projects: Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo and the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (Minuteman ICBM) initiative, comprehending that he or she or it cannot take those to the local insurance and reinsurance underwriter, yet these enterprises managerial initiatives have been successfully instituted. MANAGERS DON'T ONLY NEED TO STUDY THE IDEAS, PLANS AND METHODS THAT BEGET SUSTAINABLE SUCCESS, BUT ALSO THE IDEAS, PLANS AND METHODS THAT ASCERTAIN, AS WELL, PREVALENT AND TRANSIENT FAILURE. Without any possibility of wrongness, Transformative and Integrative Risk Management always considers and contemplates every form of: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 252. 252 (1.-) Prevalent and Transient Failure. (2.-) Prevalent and Transient Error. (3.-) Prevalent and Transient Flawness. (4.-) Prevalent and Transient Mistakenness. Points (1.-), (2.-), (3.-) and (4.-) above are a most studied and researched science (The observation, identification, description, experimental investigation, and theoretical explanation of phenomena.) embedded into and for Transformative and Integrative Risk Management. By doing so, Unprecedented Corporate Success can be fruitfully sequestered and guaranteed. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 253. 253 It is beyond a sine qua non to conscientiously and proactively study all sorts and modes of failures, on the doubles. Every MANAGER must study theoretical, practical, empirical and factual failure, both his own and that of his competitors, within and beyond his industry. And every outcome of Failure or Success should be seriously gauged through measurement-readings by Qualitative all- encompassing Analytics and Quantitative all- encompassing Analytics. Embedded there is an over-learning and lucrative experience to capture. Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 254. 254 Along with the perpetual study and lucrative application of error and flawness, there must also be the perpetual study and lucrative application of Phenomenon and Phenomena. I will give you my definitions: “... Singular Phenomenon and Plural Phenomena is and/or are An occurrence, circumstance, or fact that is perceptible and imperceptible by the senses …. An unusual, significant, or unaccountable fact or occurrence …. Physics: An observable and an unobservable event, yet documentable and reconnoiterable …. All phenomena that are artificial and not artificial …. consequence, effect, result, upshot, outcome, event, issue - a phenomenon that follows and is caused by some previous phenomenon; ' … the magnetic effect was greater when the rod was By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 255. 255 lengthwise...'; '...his decision had depressing consequences for business...'; '...he acted very wise after the event...' …. fortune, hazard, luck, chance - an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another; '…. bad luck [unmanagement of change and opportunity ] caused his downfall ….'...an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that leads to a favorable [White Swan] outcome …. a remarkable development development - a recent event that has some relevance for the present situation ...” Brackets are of the author. Back to the White Swan hardcore: To further illustrate the above, the Military- Industrial Complex and companies such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, along with By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 256. 256 NASA — through their own methods — were pursuing their projects and programs without resorting to insurance and reinsurance companies at all. I became knowledgeable with an in-all-truth polymath and an outright "...Rocket Scientist,..." a physicist, a systems engineer and a doctor in science, who was directly responsible for the reliability concerning: the NASA Projects Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo. At NASA he was Dr. Wernher von Braun's right hand! I treasure all of his e-mails, letters, written testimonials, and other materials. To the utmost enhancement of my fortune and management of chances, I have, for many years now, worked with the most daring, capricious and enlightened “ … largest By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 257. 257 institutional ...” clients (minds) that one can imagine ever. They all were seeking managerial and industrial “...miracles...” only (sic). The most daring, capricious and enlightened minds, in addition to a large number of CEOs, Chairpersons, and high-ranking Executive Officers, include: A.- Magnates. B.- Mandataries. C.- Tycoons. D.- Majestics. E.- Statesmen. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 258. 258 F.- Moguls. G.- Rocket-Science Polymaths. H.- A United States Senator. I.- PhD-ed University Professor (U.S.). Speaking of tycoons, I had a business relationship with one that was most interested on my application of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, pertaining to Corporate-sponsored Perfective Medicine Services and Beyond-Insurance Health-Care Protection for Employees and Eligible Dependents. When the foremost incumbents of 10 Downing Street become really ill, they are sent to Mayo Clinic, including most By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 259. 259 honorable respected His Excellency Sir Anthony Eden. Perfective Medicine Services through Transformative and Integrative Risk Management including the medical treatment of beneficiaries via Mayo Clinic and The Johns Hopkins Hospital and Health System, citing two examples. Back to the White Swan hardcore: As I was and am the CEO and Chairman of CORS Risk Management Services, he, the tycoon above, was a Director of the Board. I cannot offer you his name but I will say that he formerly owned a national TV network, a huge flotilla of jet aircrafts and powered vessels and he is, also, a co-owner of Fort Lauderdale's Executive Airport (FXE). By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 260. 260 WHILE GIVING THEM THEIR OUTRIGHT MIRACLES, I HAVE EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC AUSPICIOUS OVER-LEARNING EXPERIENCES. I once met a Scots executive who told me that beyond-insurance risk management methodology by DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), NASA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Royal Dutch/Shell Group was “...esoteric...” I still treasure his aesthetic e-mail. This so-called “ … esoteric … ” beyond- insurance risk management approach by DARPA, NASA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Shell, Dr. Strangeloves (RAND Corporation's Herman Khan) and a multitude of global By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 261. 261 corporations has been first instituted in many industries since the beginning of the 1950s. It has been in increasing utilization and betterment for about fifty-four years to this date. What these institutions have successfully performed, transforming global civilizations and progress for Life, is un-apologetically and extremely uncomfortable for traditionalists whose ethos, cosmovisions and belief systems are fixed on the fossilized past and bonded to a myriad of obsolete assumptions, outdated notions and utter fallacies. Conversely: Given the present-day and real-world challenges embedded in the personal By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 262. 262 cosmologies of managers, scientists and futurologists, a new cosmosvision must be re- engineered and overhauled in order to replace it with an upgraded and updated version tackling the following: A.- Beliefs (system of,) B.- Ethos C.- Assumptions D.- Ideas E.- Conceptions F.- Concepts G.- Preconceptions By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 263. 263 H.- Understandings I.- Notions J.- Bias K.- Patterns of recurrence L.- Values M.- Practices N.- Subjectivity M.- Objectivity (thus, so called) O.- Customs P.- Views By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 264. 264 Q.- Knowledge R.- Wisdom S.- Logic T.- Prejudice and non-prejudice. U.- Unrecognizable Patterns. The number of ignoramuses of supine ignorance in actual existence is a breathtaking self-inflicted global human-made error(s) and risk(s) for humankind to deal with. Said ignoramuses are frozen in the past and Michael Cibenko deals with them, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 265. 265 “... One problem with gazing too frequently into the past is that we may turn around to find the future has run out on us ...” [96] Resistance to embracing new, yet proven knowledge is an absolute self-inflicted death sentence. By fortune, Dr. Malcolm Knowles PhD. addresses ignoramuses of supine ignorance (also known as simpletons and follies into outright fallacy): “...The greatest danger for the survival of the present civilization is neither atomic war, nor environmental pollution, nor the exploitation of natural resources, and nor present crises. The underlying cause to all of the above is the acceleration of man’s obsolescence … The only hope seems to be an electroshock By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 266. 266 program to re-instill to the present adults the competencies required to function adequately under a mode of perpetual change. This is a profound need — the immeasurable challenge — that is presented by the modern society to adult education....” [218] Napoleon never believed in the term “...luck...”, but incessantly and profoundly managing “...chance...”. The author agrees fully. Now, a question: Is there any other angle to take into account when coping with forthcoming downside risks and downside futures while yet exploiting upside risks and upside futures? By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 267. 267 The author hereby asserts that there are a multitude of fluid angles. I will try a question: What is an actual sample of dangerous and beneficial books and publications that some managers and risk managers are failing to consider when dealing with the rampant mutation and methamorphization of changed changes in contemporary organizational life today? Do some per-se managers and risk managers realize that coping with all risks and futures is not anything else but securing sustained success by (i) entrepreneurs, (ii) business owners, (iii) public-sector leaders, (iv) non- governmental-organization stewards and (v) supranational incumbents. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 268. 268 Verify this verbatim sample: 1.- Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics ( ISBN-13: 978- 0470089194 ) 2.- Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen ( ISBN-13: 978-0609809983 ) 3.- The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence ( ISBN-13: 978- 0465043576 ) 4.- Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder ( ISBN-13: 978-1400067824 ) 5.- The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't ( ISBN-13: 978-1594204111 ) By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 269. 269 6.- The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives ( ISBN-13: 978-0307275172 ) 7.- The Invisible Gorilla: How Our Intuitions Deceive Us ( ISBN-13: 978-0307459664 ) 8.- The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic ( ISBN- 13: 978-0061995040 ) 9.- Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy ( ISBN-13: 978- 0691152639 ) 10.- This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly ( ISBN-13: 978-0691152646 ) By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 270. 270 11.- The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 ( ISBN-13: 978-0393337808 ) 12.- First, Break All the Rules: What the World's Greatest Managers Do Differently ( ISBN-13: 978-0684852867 ) Returning to the White Swan hardcore: Conversely, a group of oil companies have requested from NASA's sustained advice on how to implement beyond-insurance risk management strategies and practices. The official NASA Press Release is cited here and also available at http://lnkd.in/dkKZ4EF EXACT QUOTATION BEGINS NOW: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 271. 271 “...NASA Johnson Space Center and Deloitte will enter into a strategic alliance offering advanced risk-management services to oil and gas companies. The Space Act Agreement commencement ceremony is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. Central, Thursday, June 27.... These capabilities include several operational risk-management approaches aimed at companies seeking to minimize the risk of catastrophic failures — the kinds of dramatic mishaps that, while highly unlikely, can occur in remote and harsh environments …. A core value of NASA is safety, which serves as a cornerstone of mission success. This collaboration will enforce NASA's constant attention to safety as a cornerstone upon which it operates as safely as possible ...” And hereby it is continued: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 272. 272 “...Through this collaboration, NASA will gain knowledge to help prepare for future missions and to enhance current safety and risk mitigation technologies to address the dynamic, harsh, and remote requirements of emergent programs …. As part of the alliance, NASA and Deloitte will jointly offer a range of capabilities in the quickly evolving risk- sciences arena, such as 'risk modeling and simulation,' to help oil and gas companies eliminate blind spots in their decision making …. Using sophisticated risk-modeling and simulation tools and techniques can reduce uncertainties in engineering and operations at oil and gas companies — in much the same way NASA has done in its human spaceflight programs …. Included in the signing of the agreement are Johnson Deputy Center Director Steve Altemus, who will join veteran By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 273. 273 NASA astronaut and director of JSC's Safety and Mission Assurance office William "Bill" McArthur, Jr., Deloitte principal David Traylor and John England, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, and leader of Deloitte's oil and gas practice …. Johnson Space Center is home to the International Space Station Program and the primary training facility for NASA's astronaut corps...” END OF QUOTATION. To further underpin the statements through this writing and countering dysfunctional illiteracy, I will share Peter Drucker's quote, “...The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 274. 274 And also that of Dr. Stephen Covey, “...Again, yesterday holds tomorrow hostage .... Memory is past. It is finite. Vision is future. It is infinite. Vision is greater than history...” And that of Sir Francis Bacon, “... He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils, for time is the greatest innovator ...” And that of London Business School Professor Gary Hamel, PhD., “...You cannot get to a new place with an old map...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 275. 275 And that of Alvin Toffler, “.....The future always comes too fast and in the wrong order...” By the way: The second-best teachers and professors are the strict, disciplinarian ones. The best teachers and professors are the one that frustrate your learning process, by default asking you to proactively grasp the command of your own perpetual education for Life. Jim Rhon observed that if you get a college degree you can make a decent living, but if you can be a rigorous autodidact (into self theoretical and practical learning), you can get wealthy. And that of Brad Leithauser, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 276. 276 “...It reminds us that, in our accelerating, headlong era, the future presses so close upon us that those who ignore it inhabit not the present but the past ...” And that of Robert Kennedy, “...The future is not a privilege but a perpetual conquest...” And that of Thomas Friedman, “...People are always [and wrongfully] assuming that everything that is going to be invented must have been invented already. But it hasn’t...” THIS QUOTATION IS HUGELY IGNORED. Brackets are of the author. Therefore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 277. 277 ON THE FINAL ANALYSIS, WE MUST READILY ACCEPT FORCEFUL NOVEL REALITIES INSTANTANEOUSLY. To the above end, Dee Hock, CEO Emeritus of Visa International, stated: “...The problem is never how to get new innovative thoughts into your mind, BUT HOW TO GET OLD ONES OUT ...” Reinforcing the preceding motions, Rosario M. Levins observes, “...Mythical thought is not pre-scientific; rather it anticipates the future state of being a science in that its past movement and its present direction are always in the same sense....” [219] By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 278. 278 Before continuing with this opinion, I like to share my favorite quote by DARPA, “...If you are not failing frequently, you are not succeeding enough...” DARPA is into outright “ … pushing of the envelope...” finding and acquiring discomfirming lucrative evidence about well- established Physics Laws. Besides several oil and other industrial corporations (such as Toyota, Mitsubishi Motors and TNT Express), I, too, have extensively performed full-scope risk management consulting services (“turnkey” solutions. I.e., primordial solutions and never quick fixes!) for organizations in industries such as automotive, industrial, health-care, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 279. 279 logistics, insurance, telecommunications, employee benefits, government, and consultancy, among others. Global organizations that utilize intensive tangible (fixed and liquid assets) and intangible (proprietary knowledge base, including trade secrets and copyrighted assets) capital usually operate preventive maintenance and corrective maintenance. These corporations don't speculate with their owned assets as they don't speculate with the assets of their clients and customers. Instead of speculating and doctoring their assets, these global corporations prefer to generate own technological breakthroughs and scientific discoveries and novel innovation By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 280. 280 developments and applied those to leverage their core business. Through TAIRM those organizations also institute frequent and preemptive perfective maintenance, as preventive and corrective maintenance are more frequently implemented while documenting thoroughly the detailed findings of said maintenances and upgrading the troubleshooting of issues stemming from said findings. Dealing with the heavy-duty industrial equipments found in car manufactures and full-scope petroleum corporations to cite two global examples, there is also a novel application of the “... perfective maintenance ...” concept. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 281. 281 Large organizations as those mentioned above have generally a large headcount. So they habitually have company-sponsored health-care benefit plans and systems. By way of illustration: (1.-) This signatory has taken proactive and instrumental part, for a number of years, in instituting the notion of “ … perfective medicine ...” through Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, as a direct way with the purpose of improving the health and well-being of eligible workers and the eligible dependents and also as a way to assure more overall cost-effectiveness and hence sustainability to this health-care plan and system. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 282. 282 (2.-) I also worked with the risks involved with large maritime fleets, chiefly those of petroleum tankers (fleets of marine vessels under the ownership and stewardship of petroleum groups). (3.-) I have also worked with the risks of and by corporate fleets of private (i) jet-propelled planes and (ii) automobiles. (4.-) I have also worked with the corporate risks of and by 1,200-plus gas stations. (7.-) At a given time, I was simultaneously managing the corporate risks of three (3) separately owned, gigantic data rooms. (8.-) At a given time, I was simultaneously managing the corporate risks of two (2) separately owned, gigantic petroleum refinery By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 283. 283 complex. Respectively, world's number 1 and number 3. (9.-) At a given time, I was simultaneously managing the corporate risks of about two (2) or three (3) separately owned, petroleum refineries. (10.-) At a given time, I was simultaneously managing the corporate fleet risks of about two (2) separately owned, petroleum and gas maritime tankers. (11.-) At a given time, I was simultaneously managing the corporate set risks of about two (2) separately owned, ground and off-shore petroleum wells. (12.-) Corporate fleets of vehicles and the collective vehicles of a corporation's By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 284. 284 employees can also be managed with beyond-insurance Transformative and Integrative Risk Management. Additionally, Back to the White Swan hardcore: As you know, Japanese corporations and institutions are into intensive Kaisen and Toyota Production System (TPS). Regarding advanced quality assurance and continuous improvement, these approaches have been demonstrated indispensable. However, Transformative and Integrative Risk Management fully entails, also, most- comprehensive Quality Assurance while Kaisen and TPS are being disproved as optimal methodologies with the 6-million car By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 285. 285 recall. In all and all, every Quality Assurance Deed (Action, Task) must necessary requires of Risk Management. And for some reason, Japanese executives and scientists have unprecedented aversion both to Calculated Risks and Classic Risk Management, except for the two health-care systems for Toyota and Mitsubishi Motors through Transformative and Integrative Risk Management. But their practitioners are always attempting to manage risks through said approaches without any success. TPS is also known as “...Thinking People System...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 286. 286 Toyota's CFO and the Production Director have their jaws dropped — while being observed by their own Chairman and CEO — when I carefully demonstrated to them the flaws of Kaisen and TPS in managing risks compared to the ample breadth and depth of scope and application by the “..Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” (TAIRM). Although they were in a major personal and technical bewilderment, they hired me (as Mitsubishi Motors did before) to institute the advanced risk management of a self-funded and self-administered health-care benefit program for some seven-hundred Toyota employees and their respective eligible dependents. Both cases were turnkey undertakings. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 287. 287 TNT Express' engagement was the implementation of advanced risk management of a self-funded and self-administered health- care benefit program for some five-hundred TNT Express employees and their respective eligible dependents. It was a turnkey undertaking. Regarding a nation's regional state, I implemented beyond-insurance risk management of a self-funded and self- administered and universal health-care benefit program for some 700,000 citizens (beneficiaries). That was instituted in Portuguesa State, Venezuela by the sponsorship of the regional government, employers' organization (business-owners non-profit organizations) and Britanica de Seguros (a national By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 288. 288 insurance company. Britanica there is written with a single “n”). Statistician Manuel SanMartin, Britanica de Seguros' CEO, told me, “...the problem with you is that you think too fast ...” To him, I commented, “...the second problem with you is that you are not jealous but envious and that you are not listening up to our Chairman and Founder, Dr. Giovanni Di Masse. Leonardo argues that “ ...joyless admiration equates to envy ...” Ask Gates III. Back to the White Swan hardcore: Then, I told Manuel: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 289. 289 “ … The first problem with you is that you haven't conceived and designed your own proprietary Intelligence Augmentation and Amplification (IAA) methodology as I did many years ago ...” Then I crowned my closing remark concisely by saying, “...I think extremely snailed-paced- ly, light-speed, through several: warped and wormed passages, temporal and atemporal dimensions, spatial and aspatial dimensions...” The signatory is, too, immeasurably into Intelligence Augmentation and Amplification (IAA) methodology. Back to the White Swan hardcore: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 290. 290 Venezuela's petroleum reserves are greater than the combined petroleum reserves of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Back to the White Swan hardcore: TAIRM has been extensively instituted — regarding numerous industrial and operational risks — in many petroleum joint ventures led by corporations such as Shell, Statoil, Exxon, Mobil, BP, Chevron, Texaco, Phillips Petroleum, Conoco, Italy's ENI and Wilpro Energy Services, among others. ENI is an Italian multinational oil and gas company headquartered in Rome. It has operations in 79 countries, and is currently Italy's largest industrial company with a market capitalization of 68 billion euros, as of August 14, 2013. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 291. 291 Back to the White Swan hardcore: What did CEOs from ExxonMobil, Conoco, Chevron, Phillips Petroleum, Statoil (Scandinavia), Italy's ENI and Wilpro Energy Services (U.S.) tell Andres? ExxonMobil (2001) I once gave an executive presentation to ExxonMobil's CEO and other Board members. My presentation was about Transformative and Integrative Risk Management's Health- care Beyond-Insurance Turnkey Solution. The CEO and other Board members were extremely accomplished executives and managers. Throughout the totality of the executive presentation, they never interrupted By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 292. 292 me by were nodding their heads meaning a positive acknowledgment. Then, we had a nice Questions-and-Answers session thorough which we had a fruitful exchange. By the end of the meeting, the CEO said: ExxonMobil's CEO: “...Mr. Agostini, Can I ask you a question?...” Andres: “...Yes, sir, any question at all...” ExxonMobil's CEO: “...Are you a physicist...” Andres: “...No, sir...” ExxonMobil's CEO: “...Are you an engineer...” Andres: “...No, sir...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 293. 293 ExxonMobil's CEO: “...Are you an computer programmer...” Andres: “...No, sir...” ExxonMobil's CEO: “...Are you a medical doctor ...” Andres: “...No, sir...” ExxonMobil's CEO: “...Are you an economist...” Andres: “...No, sir...” ExxonMobil's CEO: “..Are you a psychiatrist...” Andres: “...No, sir...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 294. 294 ExxonMobil's CEO: “... Are you a lawyer...” Andres: “...No, sir...” ExxonMobil's CEO: “... Are you an anthropologist?...” Andres: “...No, sir...” ExxonMobil's CEO: “... Are you a CPA?...” Andres: “...No, sir...” ExxonMobil's CEO: “...Then, What are you?...” Andres: “...The brief answer is: All of the above. The longer answer: I am only a person that is impossible to stereotype, label or box, into a tiny bit of practical thinking, pragmatic By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 295. 295 learning and corporate problem-solving ... and in great gratitude to accept your business, sir...” Conoco, Chevron, Phillips Petroleum, Statoil, Italy's ENI and other global petroleum corporations (2001). With their respective CEOs and Board Members, I had the exact executive presentation delivered to them. Toward the end of such business presentations, they asked me the exact question by the ExxonMobil's CEO. My replies to them was identical: “...Only a person that is impossible to stereotype, label or box, into a tiny bit of practical thinking and By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 296. 296 pragmatic learning..., in great gratitude to accept your business, sir...” Wilpro Energy Services (2001) I once gave an executive presentation to Wilpro Energy Services' CEO and other Board members. My presentation was about Transformative and Integrative Risk Management's Health-care Beyond-Insurance Turnkey Solution. They asked valuable questions and the exchange was very fluid and respectful. Then: Wilpro Energy Services' CEO stood up and came forward and shook my hand and said, “...Mr. Agostini, you are one of us ...” By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 297. 297 Wilpro Energy Services' CEO were a bit amazed as I took with me: (A.-) The hardware and software to render the services (real-life demo). (B.-) Graphics, charts and flow-grams to better underpin the executive presentation. (C.-) A real-life demo about how to medically evacuate people “...burned...” (D.-) Three air ambulances (helicopters) with embedded Intensive-Care Units. (E.-) My Ops Medic and three Paramedics and Four Rescuing Personnel. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 298. 298 (F.-) Three (3) helicopter pilots and one (1) helicopter copilot. To offer more reality, we flew there by choppers. Those choppers were provided by my strategic ally, consisting of two large Bell Ranger Helicopters and one super amazing double-turbine and four-rotators wings, manufactured by M.V. Augusta. The latter, a perfect one for SAFE medical evacuations during nighttime and to far-away landing destinations. Back to the White Swan hardcore: Global corporations are greatly into beyond- insurance risk management. Other organizations that institute beyond- insurance methodologies include: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 299. 299 OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration), FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), IBM and Manitoba Government Air Services. TAIRM seriously considers and utilizes, among many other systems, every Western and Eastern quality assurance methodologies (both from civilian and military spheres). Nearly all of said systems that TAIRM uses are available at http://tiny.cc/u14k5w or www.tairm-q.blogspot.com/ NEITHER KAISEN, NOR TPS, AND NOR ANY OTHER QUALITY ASSURANCE AND CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT SYSTEMS IN THE WORLD ARE A BEYOND- INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 300. 300 METHODOLOGY IN THE TRADITION OF TAIRM. In related manner, the U.S. Navy and the Los Alamos National Laboratory have extraordinary quality assurance methodologies. I have applied beyond-insurance risk management for supranationals (for instance, the World Bank and World Health Organization), NGOs and national governments. THEREFORE, I AM AND WILL ALSO BE A BEYOND-INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT AND RESEARCHER AND STRATEGIST AND PRACTITIONER WITH AN EMPHATIC SCIENTIFIC-FUTURING PERSPECTIVE. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 301. 301 Accordingly: New applied knowledge, new science and new technologies are going to change (“...creatively disrupt...”) it all (along with omnipresent trade and automation) right now, including every industry in the marketplace. And subsequently, every industry's manager and hence management beginning time immemorial. To give the reader a meaningful view on the proceeding, Stanford University, by way of example, observes, "...The ubiquity and variability of organizations means there is ample room for complexity and By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 302. 302 confusion in the organizational challenges we regularly face ..." AS WE ALL DISTINGUISH THAT NOVEL KNOWLEDGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY AND DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE MANAGEMENT PROFESSION, PLEASE SEE THEN HEREBY WHAT IS EXACTLY HAPPENING TO SCIENTIFIC PROGRESSION AND TECHNOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE TODAY: (My White Swan POV will resume thereafter). BEGINNING OF THE CITATION: A) "...HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]..." [226] By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 303. 303 B) “...COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS..." [226] C) “...BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD'S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013...” [226] By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 304. 304 D) “...KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS...” [226] E) “...MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR...” [226] F) “...The flattening of the world is going to be hugely disruptive to both traditional and developed societies. The weak will fall further behind faster. The traditional will feel the force of modernization much more profoundly. The new will get turned into old quicker. The developed will be challenged by the underdeveloped much more profoundly. I worry, because so much political stability is built on economic stability, and economic stability is not going to be a feature of the flat world. Add it all up and you can see that the disruptions and going to come faster and By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 305. 305 harder. No one is immune — not me, not you, not Microsoft. WE ARE ENTERING AN ERA OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION ON STEROIDS. Dealing with flatism is going to be a challenge of a whole new dimension even if your country has a strategy. But if you don’t have a strategy at all, well, again, you’ve warned...” [226] G) “...By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved .... That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 306. 306 ending and another is only beginning .... The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last .... Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS ...” Brackets are of the author. And G) above continues here: “... Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 307. 307 biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era .... FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 308. 308 SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE ....” And G) above continues here: “... BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE...” [226] By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 309. 309 H) “...The knowledge revolution is taking place in small, sharply defined areas. One company generates more U.S. patents than 139 countries do together … This [revolution] generates new EMPIRES and new ghettos .... It slams into existing systems and destroys them while creating new systems. Countries and individuals can either surf new and powerful waves of change — or try to stop them and get crushed...” [226] I) “...Nanotechnologies are broad concept, it’s simply refers to technology where the key features in measuring the small number of nanometers. A NANOMETER IS THE DIAMETER OF FIVE CARBON ATOMS SO IT’S VERY CLOSE TO THE MOLECULAR LEVEL AND WE ALREADY HAVE NEW MATERIALS AND DEVICES THAT HAD BEEN MANUFACTURED AT THE By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 310. 310 NANOSCALE. IN FACT, CHIPS TODAY, THE KEY FEATURES ARE 50 OR 60 NANOMETERS SO THAT IS ALREADY NANOTECHNOLOGY. The true promise of nanotechnology is that ultimately we’ll be able to create devices that are manufactured at the molecular level by putting together, molecular fragments in new combinations so, I can send you an information file and a desktop nanofactory will assemble molecules according to the definition in the file and create a physical objects so I can e-mail you a pair of trousers or a module to build housing or a solar panel and WE’LL BE ABLE TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANYTHING WE NEED IN THE PHYSICAL WORLD FROM INFORMATION FILES WITH VERY INEXPENSIVE INPUT MATERIALS. You can… I mean, just a few years ago if I wanted to send you a movie or a book or a recorded By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 311. 311 album, I would send you a FedEx package, now I can e-mail you an attachment and you can create a movie or a book from that ...” And I) above continues here: “ … On the future, I’ll be able to e-mail you a blouse or a meal. So, that’s the promise of nanotechnology. Another promise is to be able to create devices that are size of blood cells and by the way biology is an example of nanotechnology, the key features of biology are at the molecular level. SO, THAT’S ACTUALLY THE EXISTENCE PROOF THAT NANOTECHNOLOGY IS FEASIBLE BUT BIOLOGY IS BASED ON LIMITED SIDE OF MATERIALS. EVERYTHING IS BUILT OUT OF PROTEINS AND THAT’S A LIMITED CLASS OF SUBSTANCES. WITH NANOTECHNOLOGY WE CAN CREATE By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 312. 312 THINGS THAT ARE FAR MORE DURABLE AND FAR MORE POWERFUL. One scientist designed a robotic red blood cell it’s a thousand times more powerful than the biological version so, if you were to replace a portion of your biological red blood cells with this respirocytes the robotic versions. You could do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath or sit at the bottom of your pool for 4 hours ...” And I) above continues here: “ … If I were to say someday you’ll have millions or even billions of these nanobots, nano-robots, blood cell size devices going through your body and keeping you healthy from inside, I might think well, that sounds awfully futuristic. I’d point out this already in 50 experiments in animals of doing exactly By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 313. 313 that with the first generation of nano engineered blood cell size devices. One scientist cured type-1 diabetes in rats with the blood cell size device. Seven nanometer pores let’s insulin out in the controlled fashion. At MIT, there’s a blood cell size device that can detect and destroy cancer cells in the bloodstream. These are early experiments but KEEP IN MIND THAT BECAUSE OF THE EXPONENTIAL PROGRESSION OF THIS TECHNOLOGY, THESE TECHNOLOGIES WILL BE A BILLION TIMES MORE POWERFUL IN 25 YEARS AND YOU GET SOME IDEA WHAT WILL BE FEASIBLE ...” [226] J) “...The world has profoundly changed … The challenges and complexity we face in our personal lives and relationships, in our families, in our professional lives, and in our By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 314. 314 organizations are of a different order of magnitude. In fact, many mark 1989 — the year we witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall — as the beginning of the Information Age, the birth of a new reality, a sea change of incredible significance — truly a new era — Being effective as individuals and organizations is no longer merely an option — survival in today’s world requires it. But in order to thrive, innovate, excel, and lead in what Covey calls the new Knowledge Worker Age, we must build on and move beyond effectiveness [long-held assumptions, fallacies and flawed beliefs and faulty conventions]… Accessing the higher levels of human genius and motivation in today’s new reality REQUIRES A SEA CHANGE IN THINKING: a new mind-sets, a new skill-set, a new tool-set — in short, a whole new habit...” [226] Brackets are of the author. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 315. 315 K) “...All the notions we thought solid, all the values of civilized life, all that made for stability in international relations, all that made for regularity in the economy … in a word, all that tended happily to limit the uncertainty of the morrow, all that gave nations and individuals some confidence in the morrow … all this seems badly compromised. I have consulted all augurs I could find, of every species, and I have heard only vague words, contradictory prophecies, curiously feeble assurances. Never has humanity combined so much power with so much disorder, so much anxiety with so many playthings, so much knowledge with so much uncertainty...” [226] L) “...It’s not the case that there are only a fixed number of positions, and if old people don’t die off, there’s no room for young people By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 316. 316 to come up with new ideas, because we’re constantly expanding knowledge …. Knowledge is growing exponentially. It’s doubling approximately every year ….The problem is I can’t get on the phone with you in the future and say, “Well, I’ve done it, I have lived forever ….This idea of creating a whole virtual body with nanobots, that’s more like a 2050 scenario. But by the 2030s we’ll be putting millions of nanobots inside our bodies to augment our immune system, to basically wipe out disease. One scientist cured Type I diabetes in rats with a blood-cell-size device already ….” [226] L) here continues: “... By 2029, computers will have emotional intelligence and be convincing as people. This implies that these are people with volition just By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 317. 317 like you and I, not just games that you turn on or off. Is it my father? You could argue that it’s a simulation. But it’s not something you can play with. You don’t want to bring someone back who might be very depressed because the world is very different than they expect and the people they know aren’t around …. It’s not us versus them. We’ve created these tools to overcome our limitations, and we’ve integrated with them already. A.I. today is not in three or four dark federal intelligence agencies; it’s in billions of mobile devices around the world.... Early in this decade [2020s], humanity will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence within a $1000 personal computer, followed shortly by effective software models of human intelligence toward the middle of the decade: this will be enabled through the continuing exponential growth of brain-scanning By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 318. 318 technology, which is doubling in bandwidth, temporal and spatial resolution every year, and will be greatly amplified with nanotechnology, allowing us to have a detailed understanding of all the regions of the human brain and to aid in developing human- level machine intelligence by the end of this decade …. Computers less than 100 m in size will be possible ...” Brackets are of the author. [226] M) “...The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden, its wildness lies in wait....” [220] [226] By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 319. 319 N) “...We believe that the goal is not to predict the future, but to imagine a future made possible by changes in technology, life style, work style, regulation, global geopolitics, and the like. And there are as many viable futures as there as imaginative firms that can understand deeply the dynamics at work right now which hold opportunities to become the author of the new. FOR THE FUTURE IS NOT WHAT WILL HAPPEN; THE FUTURE IS WHAT IS HAPPENING. The present and the future don’t about each other, neatly divided between the five-year plan and the great unknown beyond. Rather they are intertwined. Every company is in the process of becoming — of becoming an anachronism irrelevant to the future, or of becoming the harbinger of the future ...” [226] By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 320. 320 Let us define Dynamics now: “...Dynamics is a branch of mechanics that deals with forces and their relation primarily to the motion but sometimes also to the equilibrium of bodies …. an underlying cause of change or growth …. a pattern or process of change, growth, or activity *population dynamics* ...” Back to the White Swan hardcore: N) continues: “...The long-term is not something that happens someday; it is what every company is building or forfeiting .... Only those who can imagine and preemptively create the future will be around to enjoy it … Creating a compelling view of tomorrow’s opportunities By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 321. 321 and moving preemptively to secure the future are tasks for neither dilettantes nor the merely intellectual curious … Other companies, the laggards, were more interested in protecting the past than in creating the future … We believe, and will argue strongly, that a company must not only get to the future first, it must get there for less .... And re-engineering charge is simply the penalty that a company must pay for not having anticipated the future .... If senior executives don’t have reasonably detailed answers to the ‘future’ set of questions, and if the answers they do have are not substantially different from the ‘today’ answers, there is little chance their companies will remain market leaders .... For much of the 1980s, IBM had been driving toward the future while looking out the rear-view mirror .... Too often, profound thinking about the future and how to shape it occurs only when present By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 322. 322 success has been substantially eroded .... Creating the future is more challenging than playing catch up, in that you have to create your own road map .... The goal is not simply to benchmark a competitor’s products and processes and imitate its methods, but to develop an independent point of view about tomorrow’s opportunities and how to exploit them ...” [226] N) continues: “ … Path-breaking is a lot more rewarding than benchmarking. One doesn’t get to the future first by letting someone else blaze the trail .... Passengers will get to the future, but their fate will not be in their own hands. Theirs profits from the future will be modest at best. Those who drive industry revolution — companies that have a clear, permeated view By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 323. 323 of where they want tom take their industry and are capable of orchestrating resources inside and outside the company to get there first — will be handsomely rewarded… The future is not an extrapolation of the past. New industrial structures will supersede old industrial structures .... Opportunities that at first blush seem evolutionary will prove to be revolutionary .... A commitment substantial enough to beget the perseverance required to create the future must be based on something more than a hunch .... But to create the future, a company must first be able to forget some of its past … ‘The future was predictable, but hardly anyone predicted it’ ...” [87]. [226] O) “...The future belongs not to those who possess a crystal ball, but those willing to challenge the biases and prejudices of the ‘establishment.’ The future belongs more to By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 324. 324 the unorthodox than it does to the prognosticators […and/or predictioneers...], more to the movement than to the starry-eyed …. The problem with the future is that is different …. If you are unable to think differently, the Future will always arrive as a [strategic or geostrategic Sputnik Moment] surprise ...” O) continues: “ … Each revolution in art was based on a re- conception of reality. It wasn’t the canvas, the pigments, or the brushes that changed, but how the artist perceived the world. In the same sense, it’s not the tools that distinguish industry revolutionaries from hummed, not the information technology they harness, not the process they use, not their facilities. Instead, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 325. 325 is their ability to escape the stranglehold of the familiar...” [28]. Brackets are of the author. P) “...A primary theme in Alvin Toffler’s best selling book Future Shock is that society’s rate of change is increasing. Everything around us — including ourselves — is rapidly changing. Nothing is stable, permanent, constant, or fixed. Neither is risk. It is an indigenous element in the volatility of life. If anything, risk expands at a greater rate than the societal rate of change — due to its roots in uncertainty and ignorance of consequences, which multiply during mercurial instability....” [226] ON DOUBLINGS BY HARD SCIENCE, HI- TECH AND EFFICIENCY: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 326. 326 Incidentally, every Scientific and Technological Progression available that is into a '' ...doubling ...” order of magnitude is synthesized here: Doubling A: (# 1 of 10) “... HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history ...” (http://bit.ly/1nOc5Xm ). Brackets are of the author. [226] Doubling B: (# 2 of 10) “... COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 327. 327 THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS ...” (http://bit.ly/1gn4CdX ) [226] Doubling C: (# 3 of 10) “ ...IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE .... BY 2020 ...” (http://bit.ly/1lZQ1Vc) [226] Doubling D: (# 4 of 10) “...SCIENTIFIC MANPOWER IS DOUBLING EVERY 12 YEARS IN A RATE OF GROWTH MORE THAN THREE TIMES THAT OF OUR POPULATION AS A WHOLE, DESPITE By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 328. 328 THAT, THE VAST STRETCHES OF THE UNKNOWN AND THE UNANSWERED AND THE UNFINISHED STILL FAR OUTSTRIP OUR COLLECTIVE COMPREHENSION...” [80] (http://1.usa.gov/1eyRLTK). [226] Doubling E: (# 5 of 10) “ ...THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD'S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013...” [37] (http://bit.ly/1iptmkn). [226] Doubling F: (# 6 of 10) By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 329. 329 “...[THERE IS A] DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS [REGARDING THE TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT OF] SOLAR ENERGY BY APPLYING NANOTECHNOLOGY TO SOLAR PANELS...” [177] (http://bit.ly/1jgckIJ). Brackets are of the author. [226] Doubling G: (# 7 of 10) “...NANO-GENETIC SEQUENCING DATA … IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR...” [177] (http://slidesha.re/1f3MUH2). [226] Doubling I: (# 8 of 10) “...KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS...” [177] (http://bit.ly/1dc8Zb4). [226] By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 330. 330 Doubling J: (# 9 of 10) “...MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR...” [177] (http://bit.ly/1mn8Btl). Brackets are of the author. [226] Doubling K: (# 10 of 10) “...Like Moore’s Law for silicon electronics, which says that computers are growing exponentially smaller and more powerful every year, molecular systems developed with DNA nanotechnology have been doubling in size roughly every three years,...” says Professor Erik Winfree at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). [197] (http://bit.ly/1f3NEMq). [217] [226] By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 331. 331 END OF CITATIONS. N.B.: In no way am I suggesting to be amused by these forceful technological innovations and changed changes above. These are only forces, beyond the material control of any single human, that are seriously observed and considered by me. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE HUMAN RACE MUST DECIDE WHICH DETERMINATION TO MAKE ABOUT SAID FORCES QUICKLY. To the end above, Prof. Gary Hamel, Ph.D. argued, “...Denial is tragic. Delay is deadly ...” And Albert Einstein determined, “...It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity … We By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 332. 332 shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive....” And Dr. Aubrey de Grey PhD. establishes, “...To solve a very complicated problem, you generally need a fairly complicated [and complex] solution [in advance]..." Brackets are of the author. Having said that: The near and far-out futures will be based on the knowledge, science and technologies that exist today. Back to the White Swan hardcore: If we are to succeed in the contemporary and forthcoming times, we MUST radically break with the past. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 333. 333 By what we just have seen above, all these dramatic changes and emerging forces bestow unprecedented, persistent and frontier-breaking new risks, challenges, problems, developments, efficiencies, opportunities, benefits and progress. To seize and exploit the upsides and to cope with the downsides optimally, there needs to be, as it has never been before in recorded manipulated history, a collective group of prepared-minded managers in place. All these scientific and technological doubling of technical breakthroughs and scientific discoveries and novel innovation developments entail, as the casual observer is not paying detailed attention, that in the preceding process current knowledge and By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 334. 334 wisdom are becoming obsolete by the nanosecond, giving birth to new notions. For instance, with the initial advent of NASA, it is argued that in its beginnings the agency added 10,000 new words to the hugely- cherished English language. In a similar fashion, it is reasoned that Shakespeare, as well, added about 10,000 new words to our relished Anglicized Thomas Jefferson Lingua Franca. As well: The reader is welcome to a new “...normal...” and a new “...abnormal....” In all verisimilitude, there are many new “...normals...” and “...abnormals...” (both within By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 335. 335 scientific normality) for EVERY MANAGER to fundamentally cope with, being the latter, incidentally, marshaled as well within (a) normality, (b) normalcy and (c) normalness. THE WHITE SWAN HARDCORE POV HEREBY RESUMES NOW. Churchill observed that we must get prepared when we cannot predict. Hence, we need to discern the dynamic driving forces (not so- called “...trends...”) reshaping the present and future and their impacts on our institutions, industries, organizations and professions TODAY. Speaking now of dynamic driving forces, let us peruse this definition: By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 336. 336 "...Dynamic Driving Forces are forces outside the firm (external factors) that trigger the change of strategy in an organization. Industry conditions change because important forces (the most dominant ones that have the biggest influence on what kinds of changes will take place in the industry’s structure and competitive environment) are driving industry participants (competitors, customers, or suppliers) to alter their actions, and thus the driving forces in an industry are the major underlying causes of changing industry and competitive conditions. Driving forces analysis has two steps: identifying what the driving forces are and assessing the impact they will have on the industry .... The Most Common Dynamic Driving Forces include: 1. The Internet and new e-commerce opportunities and threats it breeds in the industry; 2. Increasing globalization of the industry; 3. By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 337. 337 Changes in the long-run industry growth rate; 4. Changes in who buys the products and how they use it. 5. Product innovation; 6. Technological change; 7. Market innovation; 8. Entry or exit of major firms; 9. Diffusion of technical know-how across more companies and more countries; 10. Changes in cost and efficiency. 11. Growing buyer for preferences for differentiated products instead of a commodity product (or for a more standardized product instead of strongly differentiated products); 12. Regulatory influences and government policy changes; 13. Changing societal concerns, attitudes, and lifestyles; 14. Reductions in uncertainty and business risk ... Other dynamic driving forces include geologic (geodesic), climatological, political, geopolitical, demographic, social, ethical, economic, technological, financial, By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 338. 338 legal and environmental forces, among others …" Besides: Every time we deal we dynamic driving forces, we should, by the way, contemplate the business-like notion of point of inflection. Ergo, I will offer this definition: BEGINNING: “...Inflection point is a moment of dramatic change, especially in the development of a company, industry, or market ... And/or a time of significant change in a situation; a turning point … A moment of dramatic change, especially in the development of a company, industry, or market … A point on a chart that By © Copyright 2013, 2014 Mr. Andres Agostini — All Rights Reserved Worldwide — « www.linkedin.com/in/andresagostini » T h e W h ite S w a n 's B e y o n d E u r e k a a n d S p u t n ik M o m e n ts
  • 339. 339 marks the beginning of a significant move, either up or down … An event that results in a significant change in the progress of a company, industry, sector, economy or geopolitical situation. An inflection point can be considered a turning point after which a dramatic change, with either positive or negative results, is expected to result. Companies, industries, sectors and economies are dynamic and constantly evolving. Inflection points are more significant than the small day-to-day progress that is made and the effects of the change are often well-known and widespread … Andy Grove, Intel's co-founder, described a strategic inflection point as '...an event that changes the way we think and act …' … What Intel's Grove calls '...strategic inflection point …, AA terms « ... Sputnik Moment inflection point …