Beyond and Above Dr. Strangelove and Royal Dutch Shell: The Future of Omniscient Scenario-Planning Methodology, Today! By Mr. Andres Agostini at http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC
Beyond and Above Dr. Strangelove and Royal Dutch
Shell: The Future of Omniscient Scenario-Planning
Methodology, Today! By Mr. Andres Agostini at
This is a personal yet summarized and copyrighted P.O.V.
that is professional, thorough and complete. This
independent exploration is based on 30 years of practical
experience and pragmatic expertise.
When I was 25 I was fully introduced and indoctrinated
on worldwide Royal Dutch Shell's scenario-planning
methodology by Shell's nationalized company Maraven.
That introduction and indoctrination came through the
kind deeds and executive decision of and by Maraven
President, Dr. Carlos Castillo and the high-ranking
strategic planners under his command.
The view and application of scenario-planning
methodology by Maraven, as well as the inherent several-
weeks training to me and others, also included all
theoretical and practical quality-assurance and
continuous-improvement prescriptions as posited by: Dr.
W. Edwards Deming, Dr. Joseph Juran, Mr. Bill Conway,
U.S. Navy, Kaisen and Hitachi.
With serious quality assurance and continuous
improvement, one must exercise (like in scenario-
planning contexts) great foresight and learning in advance
in order to eliminate forthcoming "defects" or "flaws,"
leaving leeway to countermeasure unknonwables.
All of my Maraven training included all of the preceding.
Maraven was a created and an acculturated full-scope
petroleum company by Shell and then under the absolute
tutelage and management control of state-owned PDVSA
(Citgo's parent company).
Maraven was affluently thriving in worldwide markets
while applying scenario-planning methodology as it was
exactly conceived, designed and executed by Pierre Wack
(an unconventional French oil executive who was the first
to develop the use of scenario planning in the private
sector, at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the
Wack is the father of scenario planning in the private
sector. For more details on this noted Guru, go to the
Wack's public writings are meager and kept under the
intellectual ownership of Shell. Wack's methodological
heir was Honorable Mr. Peter Schwartz, a previous Shell
executive, the former Chairman of Global Business
Network (www.gbn.com) and author of the
groundbreaking book on scenario planning: "...The Art of
the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain
World..." (ISBN-13: 978-1863160995).
Wack and Schwartz are the greatest proponents of 3-
scenario analysis. In my case, I institute "...hazard
scenario planning..." and the number of plausible and
implausible outputted thought-through "outlooks"
(scenarios) are only limited by the designated budget by
I am going to explain what an "ouput" means in Systems
Engineering. You have the Systems Transformational
"Box," throughputting (marshaling) from "known inputs"
into "desirable outputs" (from sustainable successful
outcomes into fiscally sound and continuous growth).
BUT, FOR A LONG TIME UNTIL YEAR 1999, I HAD A
REVOLVING QUESTION: WHERE DOES THE EXACT AND
MOST UNDERLYING GENESIS OF SCENARIO PLANNING
REALLY COME FROM? EXACTLY, WHAT IS THE OUTRIGHT
ORIGIN? When I study contemporary authors I always
wonder if I can find the actual "root" philosopher,
scientist and thought leader that first and originally
brought about an idea, notion, maxim, theory, approach
For instance, former U.S. Secretary of State and
conspicuous American self-help author Napoleon Hill got
his first name and success tenets after and from
(respectively) Napoleon Bonaparte. I research the works
by the original ones first and then I might check out the
works by the contemporary versions afterward.
COMING BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT MATTER, I finally
founded out that scenario planning was developed by the
U.S. during the 1950's and while this nation was
encountering great existential challenges, threatening the
country's National Security doctrine as a direct result of
the Cold War (1947–1991).
In consequence, I knew the exact and primordial, in-all-
truth root and understood that DoD (1789 - present),
DARPA (1958 - present), NASA (1958 - present) and
Military-Industrial Complex (1961 - present) and other
agencies and private contractors (including Skunkworks
ones) were the founding fathers of advanced scenario-
Many scientists and engineers worked extremely hard at
it, including NASA's Dr. Wernher von Braun
plethora of elitist scientists (chiefly into Applied Physicists
and Aerospace Engineers) collaborating with him. Elites
can sometimes serve the public interest at large
handsomely. But the gravest inflection point came by the
Sputnik Crisis (also known as the "Sputnik Moment," that
is: a large Geo-strategic surprise). Many companies go
under because of the strategic surprises inflicted by them
either by smarter competitors or novel technologies in
the hands of contrarian business enterprises.
From this point onward, one finds the salient research by
RAND Corporation's polymath futurist Herman Kahn
(February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983), also known as "...Dr.
Strangelove..." To give you an idea on Kahn's intellectual
mind-set style, please check these clear-eyed assertions
by him: “...I'm against ignorance... I am against the whole
cliché of the moment... I'm against fashionable thinking...
I'm against sloppy, emotional thinking...” 
Comparatively and interestingly enough, the United
States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld argued,
"...Reports that say that something hasn't happened are
always interesting to me, because as we know, there are
known knowns; there are things we know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are
things that we now know we don't know. But there are
also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not
know we don't know..."
But many years before the "... unknown unknowns..."
conjecture by Rumsfeld, Khan was the ultimate pioneer
in superseding "...the unthinkable..." This by Khan is one
of the pillars of Transformative and Integrative Risk
Management and The Future of Scientific Management,
He did offer a theoretical body and practical and
downright mode of approaching its theory. The most
important global institutions of the world, into profit or
not, are into rigorous "...the unthinkable..." discerning,
beginning with those of us into advanced beyond-
insurance risk management and strategy.
Let's explore Khan's background now. Wikipedia's citation
on "...the unthinkable..." polymath futurist is extremely
educational. An excerpt of this citation indicates:
"...Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was a
founder of the Hudson Institute and one of the
preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth
century. He originally come to prominence as a military
strategist and systems theorist while employed at the
RAND Corporation. He became known for analyzing the
likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending
ways to improve survivability, making him an inspiration
for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's classic black
comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove....Kahn's major
contributions were the several strategies he developed
during the Cold War to contemplate 'the unthinkable' –
namely, nuclear warfare – by using applications of game
theory. ...Most notably, KAHN IS OFTEN CITED AS THE
FATHER OF SCENARIO PLANNING..."
Given all of the prior, I understand and summon the
1.- Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or
scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that
some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans.
It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of
classic methods used by military intelligence, government
agencies and entities, NGOs, business enterprises and
supranationals. Nonetheless, scenario planning as per
Wack and Khan is breathtaking but in itself does not
suffice in contemporary times.
2.- Along with item “1.-” before, there is also the
concomitant application of 2.1.- Systems Theory, 2.2.-
Game Theory, 2.3.- Wargaming Theory and 2.4.- Many
other modes of practical strategic thinking and strategic
execution. By example, Game Theory and Wargaming
Theory ─ both under the Systems Thinking Approach ─
are extremely well addressed by Dr. Bruce Bueno de
You may wish to explored his book: “The Predictioneer's
Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and
Shape the Future” (ISBN-13: 978-0812979770).
To me Napoleon Bonaparte is the greatest Systems
Thinker ever beyond any epic military campaign. If you
are hesitant about it, please ask systems engineers,
physicists and other scholars and managers, as well as
prominent historians. 80% of the teachings by Bonaparte
are re-taught in all U.S. Military Academies. In my case
and as per my own experience, NASA-beloved Leonado
Da Vinci's publications can be an over-learning devices for
the radiant prepared-mind crafting lucid scenarios
3.- With “1.-” and “2.-” in place, there is also the
application of Compound Forecasting without the ruling
out of the vast computing calculation and transformation
from narrative data into numerical data.
I have many professional reasons to state that I use 70%
of Qualitative Analytics and 30% of Quantitative
Analytics. Algorithms don't outsmart the biological brain
yet. By year 2000, before the Dawn of Strong Big Data,
the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
CEO, Mr. Roger Brown and me were experimenting with
seizing an optimal computerized reading pertaining to the
“...success-likelihood ratio...” of a major business initiative
to be jointly launched by our respective interests. This
was another way of “futuring” that resulted exceedingly
interesting and educational back then.
4.- In addition to all posited in “1.-”, “2.-” and “3.-” above,
it is, too, highly advisable the concurrent implementation
of other practical methodologies of and by 4.1.- Futures
Studies and 4.2.- Foresight Research. There are several
proprietary approaches that cannot be disclosed here.
5.- All numbered items above and in a rogue yet subtle
search and recursive exploration of the totality of the
whole (by holistic means), everything there must be
seamlessly coalesced, integrated and instituted in
accordance with Systems Thinking with the Systemic and
Systematic Applied Omniscience Perspective as it is
understood both by Applied Engineers and Physicists.
Said “Omniscience” as it is chiefly understood by “Exact
All stakeholders always institute all the approaches
hereby in order to avoid disruption potentials and to
bring problems under optimal control. One of the world's
best and more authoritative examples is NASA and
everything by it. For decades, NASA has been developing
beyond-insurance risk management technologies and
services for its own initiatives, projects and missions, as
well as for august global corporations.
In the Summer of 2013, an American group of oil-and-gas
corporations that operate globally asked NASA for a
“...Space-Age Risk Management...” service to them as it
was made official in a NASA own Press Release at
Kindly please remember that Risk Management is neither
taking calculated risks in Wall Street's (or any stock
market), nor managing “challenges” by insurance and
reinsurance companies only. Beyond-Insurance Risk
Management is, in all actuality, OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT
PER SE to greatly exploit upsides and downsides before
they happen in a sustained mode.
Ergo, Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is
a proprietary methodology to practically solved
complicated and complex problems by the targeted
organization. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management or
“...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” (
http://lnkd.in/xuFEUz ) is, by far and by way of
example, much more than Beyond-"...Sarbanes–Oxley
Act..." Risk Management.
You see, “...reinsurance...” is a fancy term that equates to
amount of sums of “...insurance purchased by and for
insurance companies...” If a tiny or gargantuan
insurance company instituted Transformative and
Integrative Risk Management, said insurance company
would not need at all to buy any reinsurance “protection”
or so-called “cover.”
6.- There are many leading government agencies and
entities, NGOs, global corporations and supranationals
that, since many years now, apply everything above in
parallel (simultaneously, cohesively and congruently).
This is, for instance, under universal application by
agencies and business enterprises into Aerospace and
Institutions ─ that I have worked with that make forceful
efforts towards avant-garde “scenario planning” and
Transformative and Integrative Risk Management ─
encompass: Toyota, Mitsubishi, World Bank, Shell,
Statoil, Total, Exxon, Mobil, PDVSA/Citgo, GE, GMAC, TNT
Express, AT&T, GTE, Amoco, BP, Abbot Laboratories, World
Health Organization, Ernst Young Consulting, SAIC
(Science Applications International Corporation), Pak
Mail, Wilpro Energy Services, Phillips Petroleum Company,
Dupont, Conoco, ENI (Italy’s petroleum state-owned firm),
Chevron, and LDG Management (HCC Benefits).
7.- MANY PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS AND OTHER
SCIENTISTS AND ENTREPRENEURS HAVE FORMIDABLE
NOTIONS AND FORESIGHTED IDEAS BUT GRAVELY LACK
THE DIRECT EXPERIENCE AND EMPIRIC YET PROVEN
WOMB-TO-TOMB METHODS IN PRAGMATICALLY
MANAGING A DANGEROUS CORPORATE THEATER OF
To find out more about relentless Scenario-Planning
Methodology and Transformative and Integrative Risk
Management, you are most welcome to consider the
(republished by the Lifeboat Foundation and Forward
Metrics) interview at http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC .
Mr. Andres Agostini
Risk-Management Professional Futurist and
Entrepreneurial Success Consultant