Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovina Brasileira CEPEA/ESALQ/USP - Brazil Prof. D...
CADEIA DE VALOR 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 INSUMOS PRODUÇÃO  AGRÍCOLA LAVOURAS AGROINDÚSTRIA EXPORTADOR ATACADO Equ...
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 GETÚLIO SE SUICIDA 3 PRESIDENTES E 2 ANOS JUSCELINO E A ESTABILIDADE ECONOMICA E POLÍTIC...
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 <ul><li>BRASIL </li></ul><ul><li>CEPEA/ESALQ/USP - CNA </li></ul>
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Mapeamento das fazendas típicas Fonte: CEPEA / CNA Alta Floresta Paragominas Santana do ...
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 O que é uma fazenda tipica? <ul><li>Uma fazenda que representa um sistema de produção de...
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA
Custos operacionais, depreciação e retorno Produção de Bezerro– média 2009  25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPE...
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA Custos operacionais, depreciação e retorno Produção de Boi Gordo – méd...
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Agribenchmark
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Cria
What we do ? <ul><li>Comparações internacionais entre a produção de bezerro e boi gordo; </li></ul><ul><li>Analise polític...
Sistemas de produção Source : Own illustration Pasture Silage Feedlot Cut & Carry Feed % in >30% >30%   >50% grains > 30% ...
Total cost by factor and non-factor costs Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg live weight
Mercado e retornos com pagamentos do governo Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg live weight
Total weight sold per cow and year Source : Own calculations kg live weight sold per cow and year
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Terminação
Total cost of beef finishing 2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Europe West EU East Asia Oc...
Total cost of beef finishing 2008 (by production system) Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Past...
Beef prices 2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold
Daily weight gain and net gain  by production system   (carcass weight divided by age at slaughter) Source : Own calculati...
Total cost vs. total returns Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold
Time series cost and prices beef finishing 2005-2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Costs Pr...
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Ciclo Completo
Total cost by factor and  non-factor costs 2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Integrated fa...
Medium-term profitability Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight Integrated farms Combined farms
Agri Benchmark June 2009 3.  BRAZILIAN POTENTIAL TO BEEF PRODUCTION <ul><ul><li>Focal Studies: Mato Grosso do Sul’s State ...
Drivers of production 1 Additional land ─ Idle land presently unused (set aside ...) ─ Additional land not in production (...
Land availability world-wide <ul><li>World inventory: 1.5 bn. ha arable land, 3 bn. ha grassland, 4 bn. ha woodland </li><...
Productivity increase in Brazil’s beef production Number of cattle  (million head) Beef production  (million tonnes) Kg ca...
Conclusions <ul><li>Production costs matter - in case of liberalisation and land is NOT scarce - in a particular economic ...
Agri Benchmark June 2009 SUSTAINABILITY IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION More Productive <ul><li>Pasture investment: </li></ul><ul>...
Intensive Production Agri Benchmark June 2009 <ul><li>Source: CEPEA </li></ul><ul><li>US$ 1 = R$ 1,95 </li></ul><ul><li>**...
How? <ul><li>Ivestiment  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>System Semi-Intensive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>US$ 610,05 per hectare...
Investiment Necessary (US$) Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA * US$ 1 = R$ 1,95 Degradation Pasture:  - Semi Intensiv...
Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: IBGE, MAPA, Conab e ABRAF. Distribuição Geográfica Brasileira Million of ha  % * 106 mill...
Emission Agri Benchmark June 2009 <ul><li>Reduction of the animal’s time in Pasture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>System Semi-Inte...
Exchange rates vs. US$ (Index 2000 = 100) Source : Own calculations
Income and happiness 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 100 Percen t of happy people Annual income per head
Income and beef consumption 2004 –   164 countries Source: FAO, Nancy Morgan (2004) Beef consumption per capita and year I...
25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 http://cepea.esalq.usp.br [email_address] 55 019 3429 8802
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Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovina Brasileira

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Palestra Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovina Brasileira, por Sergio de Zen, professor Esalq/USP, coordenador de pecuária do Cepea.

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  • 25/05/10
  • Welchen Stand hat dieses Jahr 2003 IFCN-Rindfleisch? Nun, wir haben Betriebe in den USA, Argentinien, Brasilien, Uruguay, Frankreich, Deutschland, Österreich, Tschechien, Polen und Ungarn, Spanien kommt demnächst dazu, Namibia, Pakistan und Australien. Erste Kontakte haben wir bereits auch in Mexiko, Italien, Irland und Malaysia. Bei der Auswahl der Länder setzen wir natürlich darauf, welche wichtig im Weltmarkt sind und welche nicht.
  • Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovina Brasileira

    1. 1. Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovina Brasileira CEPEA/ESALQ/USP - Brazil Prof. Dr. SERGIO DE ZEN Ms. Thiago Bernardino de Carvalho
    2. 2. CADEIA DE VALOR 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 INSUMOS PRODUÇÃO AGRÍCOLA LAVOURAS AGROINDÚSTRIA EXPORTADOR ATACADO Equipe de Painel / Custos de Produção Equipe de Levantamento de Preços/Mercado Estudo de caso VAREJO MERCADO EXTERNO EXTERNALIDADES: sócio-ambientais Emprego Energia Mercado limpo  i i=cadeias “ SUPERMERCADO” LABORATÓRIO DE INFORMAÇÃO PRODUTOS GESTÃO EMPRESARIAL
    3. 3. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 GETÚLIO SE SUICIDA 3 PRESIDENTES E 2 ANOS JUSCELINO E A ESTABILIDADE ECONOMICA E POLÍTICA Instabilidade política e Economica - JANIO e JANGO GOLPE E ESTABILIZAÇÀO MILAGRE CRISES DO PETRÓLEO 4 MOEDAS E 5 PLANOS ECONOMICAOS PLANO REAL
    4. 4. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 <ul><li>BRASIL </li></ul><ul><li>CEPEA/ESALQ/USP - CNA </li></ul>
    5. 5. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Mapeamento das fazendas típicas Fonte: CEPEA / CNA Alta Floresta Paragominas Santana do Araguaia Nova Crixás e Porangatú Alvorada e São Miguel Ceres Catalão Governador Valadares e Carlos Chagas Uberaba e Uberlândia Andradina e Tupã Bonito Assis e Candido Mota Santo Antonio da Platina Paranavaí Guarapuava Santa Maria Bagé Alegrete Camapuã e São Gabriel Amambaí, Dourados e Naviraí Brasilândia e Paranaíba Cárceres Pontes e Lacerda Ji-Paraná Barra do Garça Colinas do Tocantins Redenção Lavras do Sul Umuarama Araguaína Paraíso do Tocantins Montes Claros Angatuba Jataí e Rio Verde Niqueândia e Uruaçu Chapadão do Sul Miranda Ribas do Rio Pardo Nova Andradina Barreiras Feira de Santana Itapetinga Itamaraju Rio Branco e Xapuri Sena Madureira Feijó e Tarauacá Cruzeiro do Sul Brasiléia
    6. 6. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 O que é uma fazenda tipica? <ul><li>Uma fazenda que representa um sistema de produção de uma região; </li></ul><ul><li>Finalidade: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Indicar o sistema regional de produção; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Por que??? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Viabilidade técnica e econômica ; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A definição é dada por produtores da região. </li></ul>
    7. 7. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA
    8. 8. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA
    9. 9. Custos operacionais, depreciação e retorno Produção de Bezerro– média 2009 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA
    10. 10. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA/CNA Custos operacionais, depreciação e retorno Produção de Boi Gordo – média 2009
    11. 11. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Agribenchmark
    12. 12. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Cria
    13. 13. What we do ? <ul><li>Comparações internacionais entre a produção de bezerro e boi gordo; </li></ul><ul><li>Analise política </li></ul><ul><li>Analise das estratégias dentro das fazendas </li></ul><ul><li>Perfil e comercial </li></ul><ul><li>Emissão de gases do efeito estufa; </li></ul>Cow-calf enterprise Weaner calf Weaning Own finishing enterprise keep sell Other finisher buy
    14. 14. Sistemas de produção Source : Own illustration Pasture Silage Feedlot Cut & Carry Feed % in >30% >30% >50% grains > 30% dry matter pasture silage and and other freshly cut grass other forages energy feed & other veget . Management Outdoor Closed or semi Confined, large, mix of cut and System year round or open barns with open pens, grazing of paths part of the year slatted floors 1,000-50,000 head and paddies and/or straw one time capacity Extent of Low Medium High Low purchase feed
    15. 15. Total cost by factor and non-factor costs Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg live weight
    16. 16. Mercado e retornos com pagamentos do governo Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg live weight
    17. 17. Total weight sold per cow and year Source : Own calculations kg live weight sold per cow and year
    18. 18. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Terminação
    19. 19. Total cost of beef finishing 2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Europe West EU East Asia Oceania Americas Africa
    20. 20. Total cost of beef finishing 2008 (by production system) Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Pasture Feedlot Silage Cut & Carry
    21. 21. Beef prices 2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold
    22. 22. Daily weight gain and net gain by production system (carcass weight divided by age at slaughter) Source : Own calculations Pasture Feedlot Silage Cut & Carry g per day
    23. 23. Total cost vs. total returns Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold
    24. 24. Time series cost and prices beef finishing 2005-2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Costs Prices
    25. 25. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 Ciclo Completo
    26. 26. Total cost by factor and non-factor costs 2008 Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight sold Integrated farms Combined farms
    27. 27. Medium-term profitability Source : Own calculations US$ per 100 kg carcass weight Integrated farms Combined farms
    28. 28. Agri Benchmark June 2009 3. BRAZILIAN POTENTIAL TO BEEF PRODUCTION <ul><ul><li>Focal Studies: Mato Grosso do Sul’s State </li></ul></ul>
    29. 29. Drivers of production 1 Additional land ─ Idle land presently unused (set aside ...) ─ Additional land not in production (cerrado ...) ─ Climate change: land losses vs. land gains ─ Grassland or arable land? Emissions? 2 Productivity increases ─ Yields per hectare crops and forage – more feed ─ Calves per cow and year, daily weight gains, final weights more beef
    30. 30. Land availability world-wide <ul><li>World inventory: 1.5 bn. ha arable land, 3 bn. ha grassland, 4 bn. ha woodland </li></ul><ul><li>440 mio. ha. currently idle </li></ul><ul><li>80% of this land reserve in South America & Africa, 50% in 7 countries: Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Angola, Congo, Sudan </li></ul>Permafrost areas in Russia? Brazil: - 50, 100, 150 million ha? - Rainforest or cerrado?
    31. 31. Productivity increase in Brazil’s beef production Number of cattle (million head) Beef production (million tonnes) Kg carcass weight per cattle From 33 to 44 kg per head (+30 %)
    32. 32. Conclusions <ul><li>Production costs matter - in case of liberalisation and land is NOT scarce - in a particular economic region like the EU - to achieve higher proft margins - to avoid prohibitively high prices </li></ul><ul><li>Market shares matter - if the country/region is big enough to have an impact on the world price - if a low cost producer has a lot of land and productivity potential </li></ul><ul><li>Profitability matters - profit is everywhere the bottom line - specialty versus commodity – limited opportunities for beef? </li></ul>
    33. 33. Agri Benchmark June 2009 SUSTAINABILITY IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION More Productive <ul><li>Pasture investment: </li></ul><ul><li>Recover areas; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Use do fertilizer; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>crop + pasture (integrate); </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>new grass (variety) </li></ul></ul>Feed supplement (in the dray season) <ul><li>Mineral supplement – protein; </li></ul><ul><li>Feed </li></ul>Animal <ul><li>Genetic investment: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>European breeds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve the Indian Breeds </li></ul></ul>Land <ul><li>Results: </li></ul><ul><li>Less Land demand </li></ul><ul><li>Less gas emission </li></ul>
    34. 34. Intensive Production Agri Benchmark June 2009 <ul><li>Source: CEPEA </li></ul><ul><li>US$ 1 = R$ 1,95 </li></ul><ul><li>**UA Unit Animal = 450 kg </li></ul><ul><li>***Arroba = 30kg Live weight </li></ul>
    35. 35. How? <ul><li>Ivestiment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>System Semi-Intensive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>US$ 610,05 per hectare </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>System Intensive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>US$ 1.313,71 per hectare </li></ul></ul></ul>Agri Benchmark June 2009 <ul><li>Pasture in Brazil </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Land with Nature Pasture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>74 millions of hectares </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Land with degradation Pasture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>97 millions of hectares </li></ul></ul></ul>TOTAL OF LAND WITH PASTURE 169.992.589,08 HA
    36. 36. Investiment Necessary (US$) Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: CEPEA * US$ 1 = R$ 1,95 Degradation Pasture: - Semi Intensive: US$ 59 billions - Intensive: US$ 127 billions <ul><li>170 millions of ha = 821,6 millions of Cattle </li></ul><ul><li>USDA (june/09) = 979 millions of Cattle in World </li></ul>Brazilian potential: 84% of Cattle in the World
    37. 37. Agri Benchmark June 2009 Source: IBGE, MAPA, Conab e ABRAF. Distribuição Geográfica Brasileira Million of ha % * 106 million of ha to produce others things (ethanol, cash crops, etc), without beef production Pasture 170 20,2 Conservation’s Unity 176 20,7 Indians Lands 118 13,9 Social Lands (MST) 77 9,0 Cash Crop Lands 72 8,4 Cultivated Forests 5 0,6 Lands for another use 160 18,8 Unexplored Lands Available for Agriculture (not consider Amazonia Forest) 106 12,5 Total 851 100
    38. 38. Emission Agri Benchmark June 2009 <ul><li>Reduction of the animal’s time in Pasture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>System Semi-Intensive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1,3 months </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>System Intensive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>3,3 months </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Land Demand: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Today – 169 million of hectare; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Semi” intensive – 94,61 million of hectare; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>System Intensive – 42,47 million of hectare; </li></ul></ul>
    39. 39. Exchange rates vs. US$ (Index 2000 = 100) Source : Own calculations
    40. 40. Income and happiness 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 100 Percen t of happy people Annual income per head
    41. 41. Income and beef consumption 2004 – 164 countries Source: FAO, Nancy Morgan (2004) Beef consumption per capita and year Income per capita per year – logarithmic scale (US$)
    42. 42. 25/05/10 Agri Benchmark June 2009 http://cepea.esalq.usp.br [email_address] 55 019 3429 8802

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