Cynefin

Situationeel veranderen Veranderproject.nl Module 2 Try-out, 19 december 2011 1

The Game2

The Game 1. Followers just follow moves of the leader • no free will • (almost) no external inﬂuences2

The Game 1. Followers just follow moves of the leader • no free will • (almost) no external inﬂuences 2. Followers just follow moves of the leader • no free will • inﬂuenced by other followers2

The Game 1. Followers just follow moves of the leader • no free will • (almost) no external inﬂuences 2. Followers just follow moves of the leader • no free will • inﬂuenced by other followers 3. System with Agents at same level • everybody reacts on 3 others, who react on 3 others, who ....2

Cyneﬁn Complex Un-order Hidden Order C&E coherent in retrospect C&E discoverable Complex Complicated Act Sense Sense Chaotic Categorise Chaotic Un-order Respond Simple Respond Visible Order No perceivable C&E C&E obvious3

Cyneﬁn Complex Un-order Hidden Order C&E coherent in retrospect C&E discoverable Complex Complicated Best practice Act Sense Sense Chaotic Categorise Chaotic Un-order Respond Simple Respond Visible Order No perceivable C&E C&E obvious3

Cyneﬁn Good practice Complex Un-order Hidden Order C&E coherent in retrospect C&E discoverable Complex Complicated Best practice Act Sense Sense Chaotic Categorise Chaotic Un-order Respond Simple Respond Visible Order No perceivable C&E C&E obvious3

Emergent practice Cyneﬁn Good practice Complex Un-order Hidden Order C&E coherent in retrospect C&E discoverable Complex Complicated Best practice Act Sense Sense Chaotic Categorise Chaotic Un-order Respond Simple Respond Visible Order No perceivable C&E C&E obvious3

Novel practice Emergent practice Cyneﬁn Good practice Complex Un-order Hidden Order C&E coherent in retrospect C&E discoverable Complex Complicated Best practice Act Sense Sense Chaotic Categorise Chaotic Un-order Respond Simple Respond Visible Order No perceivable C&E C&E obvious3

A Complex System Definition by professor George Rzevski : 1. INTERACTION – A complex system consists of a large number of diverse components (Agents) engaged in rich interaction 2. AUTONOMY – Agents are largely autonomous but subject to certain laws, rules or norms; there is no central control but agent behaviour is not random 3. EMERGENCE – Global behaviour of a complex system “emerges” from the interaction of agents and is therefore unpredictable 4. FAR FROM EQUILIBRIUM – Complex systems are “far from equilibrium” because frequent occurrences of disruptive events do not allow the system to return to the equilibrium 5. NONLINEARITY – Nonlinearity occasionally causes an insignificant input to be amplified into an extreme event (butterfly effect) 6. SELF-ORGANISATION – Complex systems are capable of self- organisation in response to disruptive events 7. CO-EVOLUTION – Complex systems irreversibly co-evolve with their environments4

Emergence • Fly to the centre • Match speed • Avoid collision • (But humans are more complex)5

Simple wisdom doesn’t apply6

Simple wisdom doesn’t apply • “The deﬁnition of insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting a different result”6

Simple wisdom doesn’t apply • “The deﬁnition of insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting a different result” • In a complex environment, doing the same thing twice will give a different result6

Simple wisdom doesn’t apply • “The deﬁnition of insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting a different result” • In a complex environment, doing the same thing twice will give a different result • “You cant manage what you cant measure”6

Simple wisdom doesn’t apply • “The deﬁnition of insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting a different result” • In a complex environment, doing the same thing twice will give a different result • “You cant manage what you cant measure” • You can intervene in a complex environment, even though you can’t measure it reliably6

Basic premise • Type of intervention depends on domain • what works well in Simple, will not work in other domains, etc.7

Agents in IT projects8

Management in the 4 domains9

Management in the 4 domains Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan Standard processes with review cycles and clear options9

Management in the 4 domains Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan Analytical techniques to determine facts and option- range Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan Standard processes with review cycles and clear options9

Management in the 4 domains Probe-Sense-Respond Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan sounds like: Analytical techniques to determine facts and option- range Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan Standard processes with review cycles and clear options9

Management in the 4 domains Probe-Sense-Respond Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan sounds like: Inspect and Adapt, Agile Analytical techniques to determine facts and option- range Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan Standard processes with review cycles and clear options9

Management in the 4 domains Probe-Sense-Respond Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan sounds like: Inspect and Adapt, Agile Analytical techniques to determine facts and option- Multiple small and diverse range interventions to create options Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan Standard processes with review cycles and clear options9

Management in the 4 domains Probe-Sense-Respond Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan sounds like: Inspect and Adapt, Agile Analytical techniques to determine facts and option- Multiple small and diverse range interventions to create options Plan ﬁrst - then act according to plan Act-Sense-Respond Standard processes with Single or multi-actions to review cycles and clear stabilise situations options9

Agile Manifesto We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value: Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more.10

12 principles Our highest priority is to satisfy the customer Working software is the primary 1 measure of progress. 7 through early and continuous delivery of valuable software. Agile processes promote sustainable Welcome changing requirements, even late in development. The sponsors, developers, 2 and users should be able to maintain a 8 development. Agile processes harness change for the customers competitive advantage. constant pace indefinitely. Continuous attention to technical Deliver working software frequently, from a 3 excellence and good design enhances 9 couple of weeks to a couple of months, with a agility. preference to the shorter timescale. Simplicity--the art of maximizing the Business people and developers must work 4 amount of work not done--is essential. 10 together daily throughout the project. The best architectures, requirements, Build projects around motivated individuals. 5 and designs emerge from self-organizing teams. 11 Give them the environment and support they need, and trust them to get the job done. At regular intervals, the team reflects The most efficient and effective method of on how to become more effective, then 6 tunes and adjusts its behavior 12 conveying information to and within a development team is face-to-face conversation. accordingly.11

Two types of process control • deﬁned • empirical [Schwaber2001]12

Coding history with Cyneﬁn in g d co t ti he p ag S [Hasan2009]13

Coding history with Cyneﬁn in g d co t ti he p ag hackers S individual experts assembly languages [Hasan2009]13

Coding history with Cyneﬁn open source OO agile programming various 3GLs emerge g visual programming din co ti et agh hackers Sp individual experts assembly languages [Hasan2009]13

Coding history with Cyneﬁn open source OO 3GLs standardised agile programming software engineering various 3GLs emerge g structured visual programming din programming co ti et agh hackers Sp individual experts assembly languages [Hasan2009]13

Coding history with Cyneﬁn open source OO 3GLs standardised agile programming software engineering various 3GLs emerge g structured visual programming din programming co ti et agh hackers S p 4GLs individual experts code generators assembly languages wizards [Hasan2009]13

IS project history with Cyneﬁn s lu re f ai je ct p ro IS [Hasan2009]14

IS project history with Cyneﬁn s lu re f ai je ctthe productivity p ro IS paradox legacy systems local inhouse solutions [Hasan2009]14

IS project history with Cyneﬁn SSM outsourcing emergent SAD s methodologies lu re f ai je ctthe productivity p ro IS paradox legacy systems local inhouse solutions [Hasan2009]14

IS project history with Cyneﬁn SAD/SDLC research SSM outsourcing standardisation of approaches emergent SAD SAD methods s methodologies re UML failu t j ecthe productivity p ro IS paradox legacy systems local inhouse solutions [Hasan2009]14

IS project history with Cyneﬁn SAD/SDLC research SSM outsourcing standardisation of approaches emergent SAD SAD methods s methodologies re UML failu t j ecthe productivity p ro IS Formal methods paradox ERPs legacy systems CASE tools local inhouse solutions [Hasan2009]14

Change in the 4 domains Probe-Sense-Respond Pla co n rdi ac ﬁr ng st -t p he lan to n ac Act-Sense-Respond t15

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank A develop & introduce new processes per department16

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank A overall roll-out plan develop & introduce • ~18 months per dept new processes per • overlapping after 3rd department dept16

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank A develop & introduce overall roll-out plan new processes per department • ~18 months per dept • overlapping after 3rd dept16

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank A develop & introduce overall roll-out plan process development new processes per department with local staff in • ~18 months per dept brainstorm sessions • overlapping after 3rd dept16

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank A develop & introduce overall roll-out plan process development new processes per department with local staff in • ~18 months per dept brainstorm sessions • overlapping after 3rd dept bounded areas of disagreement on approach, tools, etc.16

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank A develop & introduce overall roll-out plan process development new processes per department with local staff in • ~18 months per dept brainstorm sessions • overlapping after 3rd dept ... re-using already developed processes bounded areas of disagreement on approach, tools, etc.16

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank B big design up-front deploy as big bang17

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank B big design up-front deploy as big bang misﬁt in many areas, resistance17

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank B big design up-front deploy as big bang directive misﬁt in many approaches to areas, resistance achieve uniformity (KPI, Bonus)17

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank B big design up-front deploy as big bang directive misﬁt in many approaches to subservient areas, resistance achieve uniformity behaviour, going (KPI, Bonus) underground17

Case Two major CMM/CMMI programmes at two big banks Bank B big design up-front deploy as big bang subservient behaviour, going underground directive misﬁt in many approaches to areas, resistance achieve uniformity (KPI, Bonus)17

Acting the Framework • If the situation is complicated then you should deﬁne the endpoint you want to achieve and engineer a solution or series of solutions which will achieve that end point. This can be linear and mechanistic (nothing wrong with that in the right context) • If the situation is complex then there are multiple possible alternative options and while you might be able to set a direction, you dont know any of the details and you should remain open to swapping the destination as things evolve/emerge. [Snowden2012]18

References • [Hasan2009] Helen Hasan, Alanah Kazlauskas, Making Sense of IS with the Cyneﬁn Framework, PACIS2009 proceedings • [Snowden2012] Dave Snowden, Rose tinting, http://www.cognitive-edge.com/blogs/ dave/2012/01/rose_tinting.php • [Schwaber2001] Ken Schwaber and Mike Beedle, Agile Software Development with Scrum19

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