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Asymmetry abound the new rules of the app economy
                          Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
distilling market noise into market sense




    MobiCamp 2012                                                            Bern, November 2012


                       Asymmetry abound

                               Andreas Constantinou                                         Michael Vakulenko
                                 Managing Director                                           Strategy Director
                                       VisionMobile                                              VisionMobile




2                                                     Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
VisionMobile
Distilling market noise into market sense
 Developer Economics                               Telco Economics                                       Trends watch
 the de-facto research hub for the app             New economic thinking for managing                    Tracking app and developer trends
 economy                                           disruption and reinventing the Telco

                                                                          Mobile                                                  Market Sonar
                                                                          Innovation                                              a quarterly service
                         Developer                                        Economics                                               using big data to
                         research                                         workshop                                                predict app economy
                         reports:                                         how Internet                                            trends
                         measuring                                        business models
                         developer                                        are impacting
                         sentiment on                                     telecoms
                         platforms, regions,
                         revenues and
                         developer tools
                                                                          Mobile Insider                                           Mobile
                                                                          Mobile Insider is                                        Megatrends
                                                                          a monthly                                                workshop
     Developer                                                            publication that                                         Public workshops
     outreach &                                                           examines the                                             on the stage of the
     segmentation:                                                        most important                                           mobile ecosystem
     understand,                                                          trends in mobile
     segment and
     effectively reach
     developers                                                                                            Top-100 analyst blog
                                                                                                           4,000+ subscribers
                                                                                                           20,000+ monthly uniques

                         App
                         ecosystems:
                         Research and analysis
                         on the state of the app
                         economy




                                                                    Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Trusted by industry brands
    Clients




                  selected
       VisionMobile clients
               2009-2012

4                                Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Are you tweeting?

    @visionmobile




5                Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
asymmetry #1:
                         apps are the tip
                         of the iceberg




6   Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
What is the nature of disruption in mobile?
Is it just about apps and over-the-top players?



                 Apps                                          Over-the-top players




                                     Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
The industry structure in mobile changed
from integrated to modular value chain

                      2000’s                                                                    today

                         closed                                                                  open
 terminals


distribution             telcos                                                           ecosystems

 discovery             on deck                                                               app store
                     or bundled on device


 innovation                100s                                                                100,00s
     pool             of system integrators                                                      of developers



 value chain            integrated                                                              modular
                  services integrated with networks                                    services independent of networks



                                                      Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
The basis of competition in mobile changed
       and with it has brought asymmetric business models

                                          2000’s                                                            today


       user needs
          addressed                        4 apps                                                  650,000+ apps
                                 (voice, text, contacts, camera)                             (app store and web browser)


     telco services                   differentiated                                                    commodity
    (voice, text, access, VAS)     (compete on performance)                                         (compete on price)


        basis of
                                     reliability & scale                                       choice & flexibility
      competition

          business                        buy-sell                                                     asymmetric
                                                                                                        core vs complement
           models                   (standard merchand model)


9                                                     Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Asymmetry #2:
     Competition is not for profits



10                        Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Are these players competing?
                                                     B2B




                                                     sales model
                             productivity software                        on-line ads



          product               transaction model                                                 subscription




            on-line retail      devices




                OS               devices
                                                                         telecom services

                                                     B2C

11                                                    Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
They not competing in terms of profits
Players old and new are battling for control of end-to-end value chain


                 Apps
    Content
                 Services


                                                                  Ads                                          Ads
                 App Stores / Portals
  Distribution
                 Billing

                 Telephony
  Connectivity
                                         Access
                 Network access


                                                                                software
                 Software platform
                                                                                licensing
    Screen
                 Devices                              Devices


                                                                                             retailing
                 Discovery / retailing
      User
                 Customer insights
                                           denotes vendor s core business noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
                                              Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise
CC Attribution: Maschinenraum




     Asymmetry #3:
     Profit haves vs have nots

13                         Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Smartphones reached 40% sales share in Q2 2012
483M units shipped worldwide




Smartphone shipments as a % of total handset shipments   Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
An ecosystem-led phone industry




15                       Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Apple and Samsung grab profits and revenues
     in the smartphone business




16                                Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Depriving the handset industry of oxygen
and changing the rules of profitability

                  100%#                                                                                                                   Commodity
                                                                                                                                          modular
                   90%#
                                                                                                                                          market
                   80%#

 LG#               70%#
 Sony#Ericsson#
 RIM#
                   60%#
 Motorola#
                   50%#                                                                                                                   Integrated
 HTC#                                                                                                                                     from metal
 Nokia#            40%#                                                                                                                   to cloud
 Apple#
                   30%#
 Samsung#

                   20%#                                                                                                                  Integrated
                                                                                                                                         across
                   10%#                                                                                                                  handset
                                                                                                                                         BoM
                    0%#
                      2007#              2008#               2009#               2010#                  2011#                   2012#

                      Share of profits across top-8 handset vendors. Source: Asymco
                                                                     Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
#Asymmetry 4:
     PC disruption destroyed mobile



18                        Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
“What’s happened over the last five years shows not that Apple
     disrupted the phone handset industry, but rather that


     Apple destroyed the handset industry
     by disrupting the computer industry.”
                                                            John Gruber (@gruber)




19                                   Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Android cracked the old OEM structure
and offered a ticket to the smartphone market for agile and PC players


 Brought in new players                                             And challenged
 fast-moving challengers                                            the old guard OEMs
 Efficient cost structure plus ability to differentiate             Cost structure requiring high-margins.
 in software, hardware or both
                                                                    Commoditising effect of Android makes high-
                                                                    margins unattainable for OEM without own
                                                                    ecosystem or meaningful differentiation



 low cost assemblers
 Cost structure optimised for razor-thin margins
 Android is a long-term opportunity for global reach




                     No Name                                                                             source: VisionMobile

                                                          Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Only agile incumbents were able to compete
by investing in hardware integration and turning around feature to smartphone projects

                                                                                  Estimates




                                                                                                               2 players
                                                                                                               dominate
                                                                                                               smartphone
                                                                                                               shipments




                                                                                                             10 OEMs with
                                                                                                             more than 2%
                                                                                                             market share



                                                                                                        Source: Asymco
                                          Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
The redefined handset industry shape
     Polarisation of the have’s and have not’s. Consolidation at the top-end, fragmentation at the low-end




22                                                   Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Asymmetry #5:
     Core vs complement models



23                      Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
The economics of complements
     widely used by Internet players in competitive strategies


            Core product                                                 Complement




                                                                        A product consumed
                                                                        with the main product



                              Product demand increases
                            as complement prices decrease




24                                         Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
How Google uses economics of complements
     to drive its core business of online advertising


       Google Core Business                                          Google Complements




             On-line advertising                           mobile networks               handsets                browsers
              (95% of profits)



                               Commoditisation of mobile
                                   increases demand
                                  for Google products
                   Closed                                            net                  Android                 Chrome,
                 ad network                                       neutrality                                      WebKit

                  Closed                                                                   Open
25                                                   Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
OTT competition with telcos is asymmetric
     OTTs drive access revenues, but long term weaken telcos by taking over user ownership

               Core product                                                       Complement

                                              asymmetry


            A product where a business                                         A product consumed
                 generates profits                                             with the main product




              OTT products                                                          Complement
                                               asymmetry



              Consumer electronics,                                           high-speed mobile Internet
           on-line advertising, e-commerce…                                             access

                       mobile broadband is the fuel for the OTT businesses

26                                               Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Google’s three strategy directives

     Flatten
        Flatten everything that stands between eyeballs and Google’s
        ad inventory. Uses the economics of complements to increase the value of
        Google’s core product. Android and Chrome strategies are examples.


     Expand
        Expand the footprint of Google inventory (i.e. ads) across user journey by
        introducing new services like Gmail, Google Maps, YouTube, Google TV.


     Mine
        Mine the information available on every user of that inventory. Helps Google to
        better micro-target users directly increasing the value of its inventory. Mobile
        payments will provide even more customer intelligence.
27                                          Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Apple and Amazon: asymmetric biz models
Targeting different use cases and segments



                 core business!         complement!                            primary use case!

                                            retailing
     iPad!           device!                                                  digital lifestyle device!
                                            content!

                    retailing
  Kindle Fire!                               device!                          content consumption!
                    content!



                           Asymmetric
                         business models

                     Apple uses content to sell devices
                    Amazon uses devices to sell content


                                          Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Amazon expertise: Convert engagement into sales
 The retailing business depends on ‘foot traffic’ to Amazon properties


                                                              Recommendations




                              Traffic to Amazon




29                                           Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
For Amazon, Kindle is an alternative to Google
 ’foot traffic’ can be acquired by ads, affiliates, developing apps or subsidizing devices

                                                                 $$$ - Search ads

                      Online ads
                                                                Traffic to Amazon


                                                                 $$$ - Referrals

                     Affiliates
                                                                Traffic to Amazon


                                                              $$$ - Amazon apps

                     Smartphone apps
                                                                Traffic to Amazon


                                                             $$$ - Device subsidies

                     Subsidized devices
                                                                Traffic to Amazon


                                                             $$$ - Revenue share

                     OEM as affiliates?                                                              Source: VisionMobile
                                                                Traffic to Amazon

30                                             Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
“Openness” is the façade of a complements strategy
     Platforms are closed around core business and open around complements




         core business       consumer
                                             on-line ads                  on-line ads                   e-commerce
                             electronics


                                            apps, telecom,
         complements       apps, telecom,                              apps, telecom,
                                               content,                                               apps, content,
                              content,                                   platforms,
                                              handsets,                                                  telecom
                             accessories                                  browsers
                                              browsers


                                                                           Facebook
           platform             iOS            Android
                                                                           Platform
                                                                                                             Kindle




31                                              Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Asymmetry #6:
     Platform vs products



32                          Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Apple is not in the business of apps
     derives most of the revenues from sales of iPhone, iPad and Mac




               Apple revenue by segment Q1 2012 ($ billions). Source – Company reports, RRW.

33                                                 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
The mechanics of Apple iOS ecosystem
ecosystem around iOS platform is designed to drive hardware sales

                                                                                                    developers
                                                                                                  sw publishers
                                                                                                 content retailers
                                                                                                 internet players
                                                                                                      brands
                                               $$$ and                applications
                                           user engagement            and services
                                                                                                     verticals
  telcos reduce friction
 for the iPhone business



                           users and data plans                                access to market


                               subsidies
                                                                          complements, revenue              accessory
                                                                                 share
                                                                                                          manufacturers
       operators                                    iOS platform

                                            premium                premium $$$
                                        product experience




                                                             Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Network effects drive external investment 2011 figures
The ecosystem expansion is financed by developers investing into the platform

                           developers
                            & brands          $8B
       brands              investment                                                            developers




                                iOS platform                                   $900M
   operators

                                                                                Apple
                                                                             app store cost




         $90B
    iOS device sales                    Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
The mechanics of Google Android ecosystem
drives commoditization of mobile

       industry                                           $$$                                                         app developers
       verticals                                                                                                     media publishers

                                             Ad network         monetisation
                                                                & user reach

  telcos reduce friction              $$$                                             applications
for Android distribution                                                              and services

                         users, data plans,
                                                                                  ticket to smartphone market
                     25% rev. share on app sales


                             subsidies                                                         devices

      operators                                    Android platform                                                   Handset OEMs

                                            End-to-end               Eyeballs
                                         Product Experience




                                                                Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Asymmetry #7:
     Winner takes all game


37                      Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Blue vs Red vs Black oceans
     Black oceans are markets where newcomers find it near-impossible to compete




              Blue ocean               Red ocean                              Black ocean
              no competition           fierce competition                     impossible competition




             e.g. Mobile Health   e.g. wireless connectivity                     e.g. app platforms




38                                              Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Exceptional competitive advantage due to network effect
drive exponential growth and lock-in of users and developers




         users are locked by habits
                                             iOS platform
                                                                                     Developers are locked
            represented by apps                                                     by skills and experience




                                      App Store locks developers to users




                                                      Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Networks effects stronger than economies of scale
       user value

                        Platform business
                             value grows
                        exponentially due to
                          increased number
                         of interconnections

                                                                  Conventional business
                                                                 value grows linearly due to
                                                               cost saving and decreasing price




                                                                                         scale

40                              Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Winner takes all game – devices and apps




41                          Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Winner takes all game – device profits




                       Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Winner takes all game – platform mindshare




43                          Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Winner takes all game – platform intentshare




44                          Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Winner takes all game – platform abandonment




45                         Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
want more?




    “Mobile Innovation Economics”
  strategy workshop on the clash of
telco and Internet business models
http://visionmobile.com/product/mobile-innovation-economics/
                                         Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
Thanks for listening
                                                                                               Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.




                   Questions / comments?

                   @andreascon
                   Want to have this presented in person?

                   andreas@visionmobile.com
                   Want to learn more about VisionMobile?

                   www.visionmobile.com
                                                                                     Updated: 12 November 2010




                                           Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
                                                                                             Copyright VisionMobile 2011

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Asymmetry abound: the new rules of the app economy

  • 1. Asymmetry abound the new rules of the app economy Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 2. distilling market noise into market sense MobiCamp 2012 Bern, November 2012 Asymmetry abound Andreas Constantinou Michael Vakulenko Managing Director Strategy Director VisionMobile VisionMobile 2 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 3. VisionMobile Distilling market noise into market sense Developer Economics Telco Economics Trends watch the de-facto research hub for the app New economic thinking for managing Tracking app and developer trends economy disruption and reinventing the Telco Mobile Market Sonar Innovation a quarterly service Developer Economics using big data to research workshop predict app economy reports: how Internet trends measuring business models developer are impacting sentiment on telecoms platforms, regions, revenues and developer tools Mobile Insider Mobile Mobile Insider is Megatrends a monthly workshop Developer publication that Public workshops outreach & examines the on the stage of the segmentation: most important mobile ecosystem understand, trends in mobile segment and effectively reach developers Top-100 analyst blog 4,000+ subscribers 20,000+ monthly uniques App ecosystems: Research and analysis on the state of the app economy Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 4. Trusted by industry brands Clients selected VisionMobile clients 2009-2012 4 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 5. Are you tweeting? @visionmobile 5 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 6. asymmetry #1: apps are the tip of the iceberg 6 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 7. What is the nature of disruption in mobile? Is it just about apps and over-the-top players? Apps Over-the-top players Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 8. The industry structure in mobile changed from integrated to modular value chain 2000’s today closed open terminals distribution telcos ecosystems discovery on deck app store or bundled on device innovation 100s 100,00s pool of system integrators of developers value chain integrated modular services integrated with networks services independent of networks Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 9. The basis of competition in mobile changed and with it has brought asymmetric business models 2000’s today user needs addressed 4 apps 650,000+ apps (voice, text, contacts, camera) (app store and web browser) telco services differentiated commodity (voice, text, access, VAS) (compete on performance) (compete on price) basis of reliability & scale choice & flexibility competition business buy-sell asymmetric core vs complement models (standard merchand model) 9 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 10. Asymmetry #2: Competition is not for profits 10 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 11. Are these players competing? B2B sales model productivity software on-line ads product transaction model subscription on-line retail devices OS devices telecom services B2C 11 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 12. They not competing in terms of profits Players old and new are battling for control of end-to-end value chain Apps Content Services Ads Ads App Stores / Portals Distribution Billing Telephony Connectivity Access Network access software Software platform licensing Screen Devices Devices retailing Discovery / retailing User Customer insights denotes vendor s core business noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise
  • 13. CC Attribution: Maschinenraum Asymmetry #3: Profit haves vs have nots 13 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 14. Smartphones reached 40% sales share in Q2 2012 483M units shipped worldwide Smartphone shipments as a % of total handset shipments Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 15. An ecosystem-led phone industry 15 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 16. Apple and Samsung grab profits and revenues in the smartphone business 16 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 17. Depriving the handset industry of oxygen and changing the rules of profitability 100%# Commodity modular 90%# market 80%# LG# 70%# Sony#Ericsson# RIM# 60%# Motorola# 50%# Integrated HTC# from metal Nokia# 40%# to cloud Apple# 30%# Samsung# 20%# Integrated across 10%# handset BoM 0%# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# Share of profits across top-8 handset vendors. Source: Asymco Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 18. #Asymmetry 4: PC disruption destroyed mobile 18 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 19. “What’s happened over the last five years shows not that Apple disrupted the phone handset industry, but rather that Apple destroyed the handset industry by disrupting the computer industry.” John Gruber (@gruber) 19 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 20. Android cracked the old OEM structure and offered a ticket to the smartphone market for agile and PC players Brought in new players And challenged fast-moving challengers the old guard OEMs Efficient cost structure plus ability to differentiate Cost structure requiring high-margins. in software, hardware or both Commoditising effect of Android makes high- margins unattainable for OEM without own ecosystem or meaningful differentiation low cost assemblers Cost structure optimised for razor-thin margins Android is a long-term opportunity for global reach No Name source: VisionMobile Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 21. Only agile incumbents were able to compete by investing in hardware integration and turning around feature to smartphone projects Estimates 2 players dominate smartphone shipments 10 OEMs with more than 2% market share Source: Asymco Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 22. The redefined handset industry shape Polarisation of the have’s and have not’s. Consolidation at the top-end, fragmentation at the low-end 22 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 23. Asymmetry #5: Core vs complement models 23 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 24. The economics of complements widely used by Internet players in competitive strategies Core product Complement A product consumed with the main product Product demand increases as complement prices decrease 24 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 25. How Google uses economics of complements to drive its core business of online advertising Google Core Business Google Complements On-line advertising mobile networks handsets browsers (95% of profits) Commoditisation of mobile increases demand for Google products Closed net Android Chrome, ad network neutrality WebKit Closed Open 25 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 26. OTT competition with telcos is asymmetric OTTs drive access revenues, but long term weaken telcos by taking over user ownership Core product Complement asymmetry A product where a business A product consumed generates profits with the main product OTT products Complement asymmetry Consumer electronics, high-speed mobile Internet on-line advertising, e-commerce… access mobile broadband is the fuel for the OTT businesses 26 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 27. Google’s three strategy directives Flatten Flatten everything that stands between eyeballs and Google’s ad inventory. Uses the economics of complements to increase the value of Google’s core product. Android and Chrome strategies are examples. Expand Expand the footprint of Google inventory (i.e. ads) across user journey by introducing new services like Gmail, Google Maps, YouTube, Google TV. Mine Mine the information available on every user of that inventory. Helps Google to better micro-target users directly increasing the value of its inventory. Mobile payments will provide even more customer intelligence. 27 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 28. Apple and Amazon: asymmetric biz models Targeting different use cases and segments core business! complement! primary use case! retailing iPad! device! digital lifestyle device! content! retailing Kindle Fire! device! content consumption! content! Asymmetric business models Apple uses content to sell devices Amazon uses devices to sell content Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 29. Amazon expertise: Convert engagement into sales The retailing business depends on ‘foot traffic’ to Amazon properties Recommendations Traffic to Amazon 29 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 30. For Amazon, Kindle is an alternative to Google ’foot traffic’ can be acquired by ads, affiliates, developing apps or subsidizing devices $$$ - Search ads Online ads Traffic to Amazon $$$ - Referrals Affiliates Traffic to Amazon $$$ - Amazon apps Smartphone apps Traffic to Amazon $$$ - Device subsidies Subsidized devices Traffic to Amazon $$$ - Revenue share OEM as affiliates? Source: VisionMobile Traffic to Amazon 30 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 31. “Openness” is the façade of a complements strategy Platforms are closed around core business and open around complements core business consumer on-line ads on-line ads e-commerce electronics apps, telecom, complements apps, telecom, apps, telecom, content, apps, content, content, platforms, handsets, telecom accessories browsers browsers Facebook platform iOS Android Platform Kindle 31 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 32. Asymmetry #6: Platform vs products 32 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 33. Apple is not in the business of apps derives most of the revenues from sales of iPhone, iPad and Mac Apple revenue by segment Q1 2012 ($ billions). Source – Company reports, RRW. 33 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 34. The mechanics of Apple iOS ecosystem ecosystem around iOS platform is designed to drive hardware sales developers sw publishers content retailers internet players brands $$$ and applications user engagement and services verticals telcos reduce friction for the iPhone business users and data plans access to market subsidies complements, revenue accessory share manufacturers operators iOS platform premium premium $$$ product experience Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 35. Network effects drive external investment 2011 figures The ecosystem expansion is financed by developers investing into the platform developers & brands $8B brands investment developers iOS platform $900M operators Apple app store cost $90B iOS device sales Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 36. The mechanics of Google Android ecosystem drives commoditization of mobile industry $$$ app developers verticals media publishers Ad network monetisation & user reach telcos reduce friction $$$ applications for Android distribution and services users, data plans, ticket to smartphone market 25% rev. share on app sales subsidies devices operators Android platform Handset OEMs End-to-end Eyeballs Product Experience Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 37. Asymmetry #7: Winner takes all game 37 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 38. Blue vs Red vs Black oceans Black oceans are markets where newcomers find it near-impossible to compete Blue ocean Red ocean Black ocean no competition fierce competition impossible competition e.g. Mobile Health e.g. wireless connectivity e.g. app platforms 38 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 39. Exceptional competitive advantage due to network effect drive exponential growth and lock-in of users and developers users are locked by habits iOS platform Developers are locked represented by apps by skills and experience App Store locks developers to users Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 40. Networks effects stronger than economies of scale user value Platform business value grows exponentially due to increased number of interconnections Conventional business value grows linearly due to cost saving and decreasing price scale 40 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 41. Winner takes all game – devices and apps 41 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 42. Winner takes all game – device profits Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 43. Winner takes all game – platform mindshare 43 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 44. Winner takes all game – platform intentshare 44 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 45. Winner takes all game – platform abandonment 45 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 46. want more? “Mobile Innovation Economics” strategy workshop on the clash of telco and Internet business models http://visionmobile.com/product/mobile-innovation-economics/ Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 47. Thanks for listening Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. Questions / comments? @andreascon Want to have this presented in person? andreas@visionmobile.com Want to learn more about VisionMobile? www.visionmobile.com Updated: 12 November 2010 Source: VisionMobile, unless otherwise noted. Copyright VisionMobile 2012 Copyright VisionMobile 2011