Conclusions: a 2050 world? Global issues can be depressing The good news: most signs point to a better world in the future. That does not mean that people will no longer be impoverished, malnourished, have HIV/AIDS or face gender inequality etc. Instead the percentage of people suffering from these issues will be lower
Big Issues of Today in the Future? Malaria and HIV/AIDS: If the last decade has any predictive power: Plan to see these two issues be of significantly less importance. Malaria will eventually be akin to Polio. HIV/AIDS will be treatable and knowledge will increase about its transmission; remember HIV/AIDS only started in the 1980’s. Poverty: More people will move out of poverty, but largely dependent upon population growth and resources. If India can imitate China and quell population growth, % living in poverty can drastically change
Gender Inequality & Violence Against Women As literacy rates and access to education improves for women, gender inequality will decrease Changing status of women in US since 1920 As Chinese women have become more educated and entered work force, they face less discrimination. One child policy and tradition still leaves families preferring male children As long as dowry continues, discrimination against women will continue I predict dowry will be socially inexcusable by 2050
A 2050 world? Don’t expect a unipolar world with US dominance A new cold war? Threat from global terrorism will decrease Most countries will be democracies The good news: democracies rarely fight one another. The bad news: Democracies often experience higher level of internal violence
A 2050 World Africa as the world’s food basket? Resource wars: wars of the future will be fought over water, land, and fuel Increased level of migration Universal Access to internet will further transform the world: create new security issues, create access to information, create greater demands from population English remain as the lingua franca? Should we learn Chinese?
What issues will dominate ? Environment: if same agricultural methods, resource use, and deforestation continue, the world will be significantly ‘less healthy’. Overpopulation: more people, living longer=need for more resource. Unless there is a drastic global decline in fertility rates…(not likely) Resources: As a result of environmental issues and overpopulation, resources will be less limited.
How can it change? CORRUPTION must end from the personal level to the highest ranks World Bank and IMF are detrimental as long as they require structural adjustment programs. MNC’s should not be tax exempt for locating abroad This is not penalizing capitalism, it is valuing human existence and rights. When I feed the poor, I’m called a saint. When I ask why the poor have no food, I’m called a communist-Dom HelderCamara
How can it change? MNC’s must be subject to global standards of accountability (minimum wage, benefits, working conditions) and their workers should be allowed to unionize. Who and how to enforce? Regional organizations, some actual power to the UN, penalties if not. Global dependence on oil must change, once it does the Middle East will be forced to democratize and we will not be dependent upon despotic regimes
Who can change it? Single most important factor is an educated population An educated population will not stand with a corrupt government and will demand accountability Nothing wrong with some global shaming Media needs to transform its role As long as US is superpower it must walk the walk and talk the talk Do not underestimate the power of committed individuals and groups to bring about change