Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
4G Business Case Model
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Introducing the official SlideShare app

Stunning, full-screen experience for iPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

4G Business Case Model

2,046
views

Published on

* Analysis of all critical aspects (market, technical, economic and financial) ensuring the best possible alignment between business and technology strategies …

* Analysis of all critical aspects (market, technical, economic and financial) ensuring the best possible alignment between business and technology strategies
* Integrated and iterative approach to carry out a sound and reliable business case
* Tailored for the specific needs of players in the 4G ecosystem (operators, vendors, analysts and consultants, investors, regulators)
* Compliant with WiMAX and LTE technical specifications

Published in: Technology, Business

0 Comments
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
2,046
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
149
Comments
0
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. TEAFamily of Business Case Analysis of Tools www.4gbusinesscase.com 1
  • 2. Contents Overview Market analysis Technical analysis Economic & financial analysis Sensitivity analysis Comprehensive report Default parameters 2
  • 3. Overview 3
  • 4. TEA|WiMAX and TEA|LTE  Empowering 4G players with an effective business case analysis tools to set a solid foundation for a successful initiative  Unique and integrated applications  Built over six years of extensive industry experience with strategic assignments and projects for major operators and equipment suppliers 4
  • 5. Key characteristics (1/2)  Analyzing the business case for a WiMAX and LTE initiative with a holistic approach, in an integrated and iterative way, taking into account all critical aspects  Supporting a fast and simplified configuration of more than 500 input parms with a number of them pre-set to typical/recommended values in the technical part  Enabling the user to view results instantly in an animated graphical format through a dashboard-styled and very easy-to-use GUI 5
  • 6. Key characteristics (2/2)  Compliant with: • IEEE 802.16e/d/m standards and the WiMAX Forum Fixed/Mobile Profiles (TEA|WiMAX) • The latest version (Release 10) of the LTE standard (TEA|LTE)  Allowing the definition of custom profiles and bands  Allowing the manual setting of the number of Users, BS/eNB, Logical Sectors, Radio Links, MME, S-GW, P-GW to take into account the outcome of external/additional calculations/dimensioning 6
  • 7. Four main integrated analyses  Market analysis • Estimating the potential market and revenues for 4G services  Technical analysis • Dimensioning the network infrastructure to derive the required bill of quantities  Economic and financial analysis • Calculating all key economic & financial projections and indicators  Scenario and sensitivity analysis • Analyzing the influence of parameter and boundary condition changes 7
  • 8. High-level work flow Market data Market analysis Market and revenues forecast Economic & financial data Economic and financial analysis Technical data Technical analysis Bill of quantities Economic & financial Scenario and projections and sensitivity analysis indicators Inputs Module Outputs 8
  • 9. Market analysis 9
  • 10. Introduction Estimating the potential market and revenues for 4G services:  Extension of the geographical areas (up to 5) to be served and their specific scenario distribution  Market segments (up to 6) to be addressed  Service profiles (up to 6) to be offered  Market segment penetration per year  Impact of churn 10
  • 11. Work flow Territory & demography Territorial analysis Penetration and churn rates Target percentages Market forecast Other revenues Service profiles characterization Market forecast Revenues Service profile Service profiles distribution Revenues forecast Inputs Module Outputs 11
  • 12. Territorial analysis  Each geographical area of interest is characterized considering key territorial parameters: • Total extension of each geographical area • Percentage of dense urban, urban, suburban and rural scenarios • Target percentage to be covered  As for main demographic data, they are: • Number of inhabitants, households and micro/small/medium/large located in each geographical area • Percentage of distribution of each market segment among the different scenarios • Target percentage to be served 12
  • 13. Service profile  The portfolio of service profiles to be offered is defined considering: • Technical features  Internet access: PIR and CIR in down and up link  VoIP: number of VoIP lines per users, coding algorithm • Pricing policies  Monthly service fee, one-time activation fee, monthly lease fee • Distribution of services profiles per each market segment • Distribution of user equipments related to the selected service profile per each market segment 13
  • 14. Market forecast  The market size per each year, each area and each market segment is evaluated by taking into account: • Penetration rate • Churn rate 14
  • 15. Revenues  The revenues for the 4G services to be offered are estimated depending on: • Service profile characterization • Market forecast  In addition, it is possible to take into account other revenues, i.e. other possible total annual incomes related to the network operation such as: • Revenues due from for example sale of end user devices • Revenues due from end user accessories • Revenues due from other business units • Etc. 15
  • 16. Technical analysis 16
  • 17. Introduction Dimensioning the network infrastructure to derive the required bill of quantities:  Technology characterization  Type of BS/eNB (up to 3) and UT/UE (up to 6)  Path loss model for the link budget analysis  Down and up link capacity demand per year  Existing backbone infrastructures  Wireless backhaul technology distribution 17
  • 18. Work flow Service profile Market forecast characterization Frequency and distribution Target area Channel Cell overlapping Technology bandwidth factor Capacity demand MCS & SNIR EPC characterization Performance Network dimensioning Backhaul BTS/eNodeB characterization configuration EquipmentUser equipment Roll-out Roll-out function configuration Margins Path loss model Bill of quantities Inputs Module Outputs 18
  • 19. Technology  The 4G technology is characterized according to the standard certification profiles defined by either WiMAX Forum (WiMAX) or 3GPP (LTE). In detail the following parameters are specified: • Frequency • Channel bandwidth • Duplexing format • Modulation and coding scheme • SNIR  Custom profiles can be defined to completely customize the use of the 4G technology in terms of: • Frequency • Channel bandwidth • Duplexing format 19
  • 20. Equipment  In order to perform the link budget analysis, equipments (BTS/eNodeB and user equipments) are characterized in terms of : • Antenna gain • Cable losses • Feeder losses • Transmit power • Noise figure • LNA gain • Penetration loss • Body loss • Number of sectors • Number of antenna elements in transmission and reception 20
  • 21. Performance  The maximum path loss on the basis of a relevant number of parameters: • Equipment characterization (BTS/eNodeB and user equipment) • Margins  Cell edge coverage probability, lognormal shadowing standard deviation, fast fading margin, interference margin (in down and up link)  The coverage predictions of the median path loss related to each scenario are calculated on the basis of the selected path loss model (Cost-231, SUI, ECC-33, Log- normal with/without shadowing, Free Space)  The capacity provided by each BTS/eNodeB is evaluated on the basis of: • Supported MCS • Distribution of MCS • Number of carrier per sector • Number of sectors per BTS/eNodeB 21
  • 22. Capacity demand  To evaluate the feasibility of the services to be offered and to perform the dimensioning of the network infrastructure correctly, the capacity demand is estimated  The capacity demand denotes the capacity required in down and up link by the users located in each area to be served and it is estimated depending on relevant parameters: • Market forecast • Service profiles • Overbooking factor • Peak busy hour activity factor 22
  • 23. Network dimensioning  The network dimensioning aims at estimating: • Number of BTS/eNodeB on the basis of coverage and capacity requirements • Number of radio links per each technology (SDH, PDH, IP Ethernet, etc.) • Number of ASN-GW (WiMAX) or MME, S-GW, P-GW (LTE)  This network dimensioning is performed by taking into account: • Coverage requirements • Cell overlapping factor • Characterization of ASN-GW/EPC • Percentage of BTS/eNodeB with wireless backhaul and multihop factor • Distribution of radio links among the various technologies (SDH, PDH, IP Ethernet, etc.) • Legacy network (existing BTS/eNodeB and radio links) 23
  • 24. Roll-out  The network roll-out is evaluated on the basis of the roll-out function, that denotes the percentage of year-on-year deployed infrastructure.  The annual bill of quantities is estimated in terms of: • BTS/eNodeB • Logical sectors • Radio links • ASN-GW / MME, S-GW, P-GW 24
  • 25. Economic and financial analysis 25
  • 26. Introduction Calculating all key economic & financial projections and indicators to assess the feasibility of the initiative:  CAPEX & OPEX  Depreciations  Interest rate on borrowings, tax rate, discount rate  Financing  Equity  Perpetual growth 26
  • 27. Work flowBill of quantities Head count Salaries & benefits Market and revenues forecastMarket forecast Personnel SG&A items COS items SG&A COS TCOBill of quantities D&A Statements Revenues forecastMarket forecast CAPEX Economic & financial Years to depreciate projections and CAPEX items indicators Inputs Module Outputs 27
  • 28. Personnel  The personnel costs are analyzed considering all the typical roles in a telecommunication operator: • Executive staff • Technical ops • Sales • Other (marketing, general & administrative people)  and defining: • Their salary • Their benefits 28
  • 29. CAPEX To forecast capital expenditures, all main CAPEX figures for the 4G initiatives are defined and calculated, such as network and system equipments costs: • BTS/eNodeB • User equipment • Backhauling (wireless and wired) • Core network • Spectrum license • Other possible CAPEX 29
  • 30. D&A On the basis of CAPEX, the depreciation and amortization breakdown is evaluated In particular, for each CAPEX item years to depreciate and amortize are defined 30
  • 31. COS To forecast the cost of services, all main COS figures for the 4G initiatives are defined and calculated, such as: • BTS/eNodeB • User equipment • Backhauling (wireless and wired) • Core network • Spectrum license • VoIP • Technical staff • Other possible COS 31
  • 32. SG&A To forecast costs of SG&A, all main SG&A figures for the 4G initiatives are defined and calculated, such as: • General & Administrative • Marketing • Sales • Customer acquisition • Customer care • Billing • Bad debts and churn • Other possible SG&A 32
  • 33. Statements  To understand whether the 4G initiatives make or not a positive net income during the analysis period • The following statements are produced: Profit & Loss, Cash Flow, Balance Sheet • The following indicators are estimated: IRR, NPV, PBP, Enterprise value  The statements are carried out on the basis of: • Revenues • CAPEX & OPEX • Depreciations • Interest rate on borrowings, tax rate, discount rate • Financing & Equity • Perpetual growth 33
  • 34. Scenario and sensitivity analysis 34
  • 35. Introduction  Analyzing the influence of parameter and boundary condition changes, to identify the most critical factors for the success of the initiative  Allowing a fast and iterative fine-tuning of the business case, in real-time and total privacy  Presenting the results in an animated graphical format instantly from the different Market, Technical, Economic & Financial perspectives 35
  • 36. Critical factors  Market analysis • Users target percentage, pricing policies, distribution rates, penetration rates  Technical analysis • Frequency, channel bandwidth, duplexing, BTS/eNodeB choice, MIMO, cell overlapping percentage of BTS/eNodeB with wireless backhaul, roll-out rate  Economic and financial analysis • Site acquisition, logical sector cost, user equipment cost, wireless backhaul equipment cost, spectrum license • Site lease and utilities, wired backhaul, customer acquisition 36
  • 37. Comprehensive report 37
  • 38. Comprehensive report  Automatically compiled and published in editable and PDF formats  Containing a complete summary (with tables, diagrams and charts) of: • All inputs and assumptions • All results of the market analysis • All outcome of the technical modelling • All economic and financial statements for up to ten years 38
  • 39. Default parameters 39
  • 40. Default parameters  To help configuring the technical part, a number of relevant parameters are, by default, pre-set to typical/recommended values: • Technology characterization • BTS/eNodeB characterization • User equipment characterization • Multiple antenna system gain • Margins • EPC characterization  These values can be changed at any time during the analysis 40
  • 41. Thank you for your attention! WiTech Spa Via Giuntini 25 56023 CascinaFor more information, please visit our web site, call us Loc. Navacchio PISA - Italyor send us an e-mail. www.witech.it www.wropcloud.com www.4gbusinesscase.com Phone: +39 050 775 056 Fax: +39 050 75 47 22 E-mail: info@witech.it 41