Poultry Diseases Detection using               Dempster-Shafer Theory                              Andino Maseleno, Md. Ma...
subset generated by the frame of discernment.                                                    (3)For a hypothesis set, ...
Table 2. Combination of symptom 1 and symptom 2                      0.01  0.01                                          ...
Table 6. Final result of basic probability assignment                                     Fig 2. Poultry diseases in each ...
[2]. W.      H.    Assembly.      Strengthening                                                         pandemic-influenza...
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Poultry Diseases Detection using Dempster-Shafer Theory

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Based on Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza Reported to World Health Organization (WHO) in the 2011 from 15 countries, Indonesia has the largest number death because Avian Influenza which 146 deaths. In this research, we are using Dempster-Shafer Theory for detecting poultry diseases and displaying the result of detection process. In this paper we use five symptoms as major symptoms which include depression, combs, wattle, bluish face region, swollen face region, narrowness of eyes, and balance disorders. Dempster-Shafer theory to quantify the degree of belief, our approach uses Dempster-Shafer theory to combine beliefs under conditions of uncertainty and ignorance, and allows quantitative measurement of the belief and plausibility in our identification result. The result reveal that Dempster-Shafer theory has successfully identified the existence of poultry diseases.

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Poultry Diseases Detection using Dempster-Shafer Theory

  1. 1. Poultry Diseases Detection using Dempster-Shafer Theory Andino Maseleno, Md. Mahmud Hasan Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam Jalan Tungku Link, Gadong BE 1410, Negara Brunei Darussalam E-mail: andinomaseleno@yahoo.com, mahmud.hasan@ubd.edu.bn ABSTRACT Based on Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza Reported to World Health Organization (WHO) in the 2011 from 15 countries, Indonesia has the largest number death because Avian Influenza which 146 deaths. In this research, we are using Dempster-Shafer Theory for detecting poultry diseases and displaying the result of detection process. In this paper we use five symptoms as major symptoms which include depression, combs, wattle, bluish face region, swollen face region, narrowness of eyes, and balance disorders. Dempster-Shafer theory to quantify the degree of belief, our approach uses Dempster-Shafer theory to combine beliefs under conditions of uncertainty and ignorance, and allows quantitative measurement of the belief and plausibility in our identification result. The result reveal that Dempster-Shafer theory has successfully identified the existence of poultry diseases. Keywords: poultry diseases; detection; Dempster-Shafer theoryINTRODUCTION rate in developing countries compared with The demand for chicken meat has been more developed countries [3].increasing because it has become cheaper The remainder is organized as follows. Therelative to other meats The term poultry refers Dempster-Shafer theory is briefly reviewed into domesticated fowl raised for meat or eggs. Section 2. The experimental results areThe poultry industry is dominated by the presented in Section 3, and final remarks arechicken companies, development of poultry concluded in Section 4.population and poultry industry is very rapidlythreatened by the presence of poultry disease. DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORYDisease is defined as a departure from health, The Dempster-Shafer theory was firstand includes any condition that impairs normal introduced by Dempster [4] and then extendedbody functions. Disease results from a by shafer [5], but the kind of reasoning thecombination of indirect causes that reduce theory uses can be found as far back as theresistance or predispose an animal to catching seventeenth century. This theory is actually ana disease, as well as the direct causes that extension to classic probabilistic uncertaintyproduce the disease. modeling. Whereas the Bayesian theory Avian influenza virus, which has been requires probabilities for each question oflimited to poultry, now has spread to migrating interest, belief functions allow us to basebirds and has emerged in mammals and degrees of belief for on question onamong the human population. It presents a probabilities for a related question.distinct threat of a pandemic for which the The consultation process begins withWorld Health Organization and other selecting symptoms. If there are symptomsorganizations are making preparations [1]. In then will calculate, The Dempster-Shafer2005, the World Health Assembly urged its theory provides a rule to combine evidencesMember States to develop national from independent observers and into a singlepreparedness plans for pandemic influenza [2]. and more informative hint. Evidence theory isDeveloping countries face particular planning based on belief function and plausibleand other challenges with pandemic reasoning. First of all, we must define a framepreparedness as there may be a higher death of discernment, indicated by the sign Θ . The Θ sign 2 indicates the set composed of all the
  2. 2. subset generated by the frame of discernment. (3)For a hypothesis set, denoted by A,m(A)→[0,1]. Wherem( )=0 (4) (1)∅ is the sign of an empty set. The function m isthe basic probability assignment. Dempsters Flowchart of poultry diseases detection shownrule of combination combines two independent in Figure 1. Table 1 shown basic probabilitysets of mass assignments. assignment of symptom from each condition. (∅) = 0 (2)Table 1. Basic probability assignment of symptom A. Symptom 1 Start Depression is a symptom of Avian Influenza (AI), Newcastle Disease (ND), Fowl Cholera (FC), Infectious Bronchitis respiratory Yes form (IBRespi), Infectious Bronchitis Input Symptoms m1 (B) m2 (C) reproduction form (IBRepro), and Swollen Head Syndrome (SHS). The measures of uncertainty, taken collectively are known in No Dempster Shafer Theory terminology as a ``basic probability assignment (bpa). Hence m (A) = 1 we have a bpa, say m 1 of 0.7 given to the focal element {AI, ND, FC, IBRespi, IBRepro, SHS} in example, m1({AI, ND, FC, IBRespi, IBRepro, SHS}) = 0.7, since we know nothing about the End remaining probability it is allocated to the whole of the frame of the discernment in Fig 1. Flowchart of Poultry Diseases Detection example, m1({AI, ND, FC, IBRespi, IBRepro, SHS}) = 0.3, so: The following will be shown implementation m1{AI, ND, FC, IBRespi, IBRepro, SHS} = 0.7of the Dempster-Shafer theory to diagnose m1{Θ} = 1 - 0.7 = 0.3poultry diseases.Symptoms: B. Symptom 21. Depression Combs, wattle, bluish face region are2. Combs, wattle, bluish face region symptoms of Avian Influenza with a bpa of 0.9,3. Swollen face region so that:4. Narrowness of eyes m2{AI} = 0.95. Balance disorders m2 {Θ} = 1 – 0.9 = 0.1 We combining symptom 1, and symptom 2 as seen in the table 2.
  3. 3. Table 2. Combination of symptom 1 and symptom 2 0.01  0.01 m7 (SHS) =  0.17 1  (0.81  0.07) 0.09 m7 (AI) =  0.75 1  (0.81  0.07) 0.63  0.27 0.01m3 (AI) =  0.9 m7 (AI, ND, FC) =  0.08 1 0 1  (0.81  0.07)m3 (AI, ND, FC, IBRespi, IBRepro, SHS) = m7 (AI, ND, FC, IBRespi, IBRepro, SHS) =0.07  0.07 0.0011 0  0.01 1  (0.81  0.07) 0.03m3 (Θ) =  0.03 0.001 1 0 m7 (Θ) =  0.01 1  (0.81  0.07)C. Symptom 3 Swollen face region is a symptom of Avian E. Symptom 5Influenza, Newcastle Disease, Fowl Cholera Balance disorders is a symptom ofwith a bpa of 0.8, so that Newcastle Diseases and Swollen Headm4 {AI, ND, FC} = 0.8 Syndrome with a bpa of 0.6, so that:m4 (Θ) = 1 – 0.8= 0.2 m8 {ND,SHS} = 0.6 We combining symptom 1, symptom 2, and m8 {Θ} = 1 - 0.6 = 0.4symptom 3 as seen in the table 3. We combining symptom 1, symptom 2, symptom 3, symptom 4 and symptom 5 asTable 3. Combination of symptom 1, symptom 2, seen in the table 5.and symptom 3 Table 5. Combination of Symptom 1, Symptom 2, Symptom 3, Symptom 4 and Symptom 5 0.72  0.18m5 (AI) =  0.9 1 0 0.06  0.02m5 (AI, ND, FC) =  0.08 m9 (SHS) =0.1  0.07  0.31 1 0 1  0.45m5 (AI, ND, FC, IBRespi, IBRepro, SHS) = 0.3 m9 (AI) =  0.550.01 1  0.45  0.011 0 m9 (ND) = 0.05  0.1 0.01 1  0.45m5 (Ө) =  0.01 m9 (ND, SHS) =0.01  0.01  0.04 1 0 1  0.45 m9 (AI, ND, FC) = 0.03  0.05D. Symptom 4 1  0.45 0.004 Narrowness of eyes is a symptom of m9 (AI, ND, FC, IBRespi, IBRepro, SHS) =  0.01 1  0.45Swollen Head Syndrome with a bpa of 0.9, sothat: m9 (Θ) = 0.004  0.01 1  0.45m6 (SHS) = 0.9m6 (Θ) = 1 – 0.9 = 0.1 We combining symptom 1, symptom 2,symptom 3, and symptom 4 as seen in the The most highly bpa value is the m9 (AI)table 4. that is equal to 0.555 which means the possibility of a temporary diseases withTable 4. Combination of symptom 1, symptom 2, symptoms of depression, comb, wattle, bluishsymptom 3 and symptom 4 face region, swollen region face, narrowness of eyes, and balance disorders is the Avian influenza. Table 6 and figure 2 are shown final result of the basic probability assignment and graphic of identification from each condition.
  4. 4. Table 6. Final result of basic probability assignment Fig 2. Poultry diseases in each condition Figure 2 shows the highest basic consultation result can be seen in figure 3probability assignment and the possibility of a and figure 4.temporary diseases for each condition. Thehighest bpa value for condition 1 and condition2 are Avian Influenza diseases, condition 3and condition 4 are Swollen Head Syndromediseases, condition 1 is Avian Influenza,Newcastle Disease, Fowl Cholera, InfectiousBronchitis respiratory form, InfectiousBronchitis reproduction form, and SwollenHead Syndrome. Condition 1, condition 2,condition 4, and condition 5 need serioustreatment because has basic probabilityassignment more than 0.5.IMPLEMENTATION The following will be shown theworking process of system in diagnosing acase. The consultation process begins with Fig 3. Symptoms Selectionselecting the location and symptoms foundon the list of symptoms. In the cases tested,a known symptom is depression, combs,wattle, bluish face region, swollen faceregion, narrowness of eyes, balancedisorders. The consultation process and
  5. 5. [2]. W. H. Assembly. Strengthening pandemic-influenza preparedness and response. Resolution WHA58.5, 2005. [3]. E. Azziz-Baumgartner, N. Smith, R. González-Alvarez, National pandemic influenza preparedness planning. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses (2009) 189 – 196 [4]. A. P. Dempster, A Generalization of Bayesian inference, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1968) 205 – 247 [5]. G. Shafer, A Mathematical Theory of Evidence (Princeton University Press, New Jersey, 1976) Fig 9. Consultation ResultCONCLUSION Detection of poultry diseases can beperformed using Dempster-Shafer Theory. Inthis paper we use five symptoms as majorsymptoms which include depression, combs,wattle, bluish face region, swollen face region,narrowness of eyes, and balance disorders.The simplest possible method for usingprobabilities to quantify the uncertainty in adatabase is that of attaching a probability toevery member of a relation, and to use thesevalues to provide the probability that aparticular value is the correct answer to aparticular query. An expert in providingknowledge is uncertain in the form of rules withthe possibility, the rules are probability value.The knowledge is uncertain in the collection ofbasic events can be directly used to drawconclusions in simple cases, however, in manycases the various events associated with eachother. Reasoning under uncertainty that usedsome of mathematical expressions, gave thema different interpretation: each piece ofevidence (finding) may support a subsetcontaining several hypotheses. This is ageneralization of the pure probabilisticframework in which every finding correspondsto a value of a variable (a single hypothesis).The result reveal that Dempster-Shafer theoryhas successfully identified the existence ofpoultry diseases.REFERENCES[1]. L. D Sims, J. Domenech, C. Benigno, S. Kahn, A. Kamata, J. Lubrouth, V. Martin, and P. Roeder, Origin and evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Asia. The Veterinary Record (2005) 159 – 164.

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