The Sudans and the Niles

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  • The devil’s triangle
  • The Sudans and the Niles

    1. 1. The Sudans and the NilesThe Sudans and the NilesAna Elisa Cascao, SIWIAna Elisa Cascao, SIWIAddis Ababa, 11 June 2013Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013
    2. 2. Map: the Sudans and the NilesMap: the Sudans and the NilesNot upstream,not downstreambut midstream
    3. 3. The ‘hidden’ maps: the trianglesThe ‘hidden’ maps: the triangles
    4. 4. Sudans: key players in the Nile hydropoliticsSudans: key players in the Nile hydropoliticsNorth Sudan:North Sudan: the riparian state that can utilisemore Nile water resourcesSouth Sudan:South Sudan: the riparian state can (potentially)increase the Nile water resourcesKing-makersKing-makers in the complex hydropolitical Nilegame (multilateral, trilateral and bilateral)
    5. 5. North Sudan:North Sudan:the wild hydropolitical cardthe wild hydropolitical card• Current and future uses of the Nile waters• Water consumption:the nexus between irrigation, livestock & energy• Water diplomacy:looking down (dyad) & looking up (potential)
    6. 6. North Sudan: the irrigation potentialNorth Sudan: the irrigation potential
    7. 7. North Sudan:North Sudan:the irrigationthe irrigationpotentialpotential
    8. 8. North Sudan: the livestock potentialNorth Sudan: the livestock potential
    9. 9. North Sudan:North Sudan:the livestockthe livestockpotentialpotentialSource: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics (unpublished data); In PastoralismBriefing Papers, part of UNEP Sudan Integrated Environment Project
    10. 10. North Sudan: current and futureNorth Sudan: current and futurehydro-economic strategy?hydro-economic strategy?• Oil or agriculture/livestock• Back to the breadbasket idea?• Sugar/Ethanol ambitions• Is there water enough?
    11. 11. South Sudan: the new Nile riparianSouth Sudan: the new Nile riparian• 11th Nile riparian state• Part of the two Nile regions• Prospects for agriculture, livestock & hydropower• Current and future hydro-economic strategy?• Hydropolitical positionality?
    12. 12. South Sudan:South Sudan:Resource-basedResource-baseddevelopmentdevelopment• The rise and fall of an oil economy• Back to the basics…Agricultureand Livestock• Trade-offs and social conflicts• Increasing energy demands
    13. 13. South Sudan and the Nile in theSouth Sudan and the Nile in thepost-independence periodpost-independence periodAlignment:1959 Agreementor CFA?• Foreign Policy• Negotiations• Water Allocations• Jonglei Canal
    14. 14. Pre and Post-Referendum NegotiationsPre and Post-Referendum NegotiationsHydropoliticalimplications of SouthSudan’s secession?Nile discussions in 2 folders:• International Agreementsand• Natural Resources
    15. 15. Scenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the NileScenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the Nile
    16. 16. South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?• Political and econoniccalculations• Political and economicrelations with Egyptand Sudan• Political and economicrelations with Africanneighbours (Ethiopia,Uganda, Kenya, and otherEAC countries)
    17. 17. Jonglei Canal:Jonglei Canal:yes or not(or maybe)?
    18. 18. Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?Jonglei Canal: a symbol of colonialism and a symbol of warImpacts: hydrological, environmental, social, political, ...Technical engineering or social-political engineering??JongleiCanal
    19. 19. Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?AgricultureEnergyHydropolitics
    20. 20. New bookResource-based conflict andcooperation in South Sudanand Gambella (Ethiopia):When Water, Land and OilMix With Politics
    21. 21. Thanks for yourattention!ana.cascao@siwi.org

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