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Nile_Climate_Variability_Food_Security_Cascao_Nile_Basin_Development_Forum_3 Nile_Climate_Variability_Food_Security_Cascao_Nile_Basin_Development_Forum_3 Presentation Transcript

  • Climate variability and food security in the Nile Basin region: challenges and opportunities 3rd Nile Basin Basin Development Forum (NBDF) Kigali – Rwanda 27 October 2011 Ana Elisa Cascão Stockholm International Water Institute Rwanda
  • Current agriculture-related challenges
    • Agriculture: backbone of Nile political economy
    • Agriculture: main source of livelihoods and employment (and often GDP)
    • Generalised food insecurity
    • Dependence on food aid/agriculture exports
    • Low level of inter-basin agricultural trade
    • National-based agricultural agendas
    • Agriculture at regional level: extremely politicised issue!
    Sudan
  • Current climate-related challenges
    • Existing
    • climate variability:
    • Uneven rainfall patterns
    • Drought-prone regions
    • Inefficient agriculture practices
    • Weak infrastructure (reservoirs, irrigation systems,...)
    • Blue water: enough for all?
    • Green water: great potential, but how to quantify and manage?
    Kenya View slide
  • [Future] climate change and its impacts on agriculture
    • More rainfall variability?/ Less water availability?  IMPACTS?
    • Rainfed agriculture and livestock – at risk!
    • Irrigated agriculture – underdeveloped potential
    • Solution: improved rainfed + supplementary irrigation + livestock management?
    • Solutions:
        • - produce less...
        • - produce differently...
        • - trade more...
          • Regional division of labour;?
          • Cash-crops for food-crops?
    Ethiopia View slide
  • Huge agricultural opportunities: production + trade
    • Regional/Global ‘breadbasket’ potential
    • Fertile land and water resources availability
    • Attractive for cash-crop investors
    • Increasing foreign land acquisitions (pros and cons)
    • Potential for regional agricultural market
    • Regional ‘virtual water’ market
    • Division of labour: where and when to produce and buy/sell?
    South Sudan
  • Regional cooperation on agriculture:what future?
    • Past: relevance of agriculture in the NBI agenda and projects on-the-ground (SAPs)?
    • Present: agriculture development is still a politically sensitive issue
    • Short-term future: what will be the agricultural functions of the future Nile Basin Commission?
    • Long-term future: how to incorporate growing climate variability in the Nile Basin region?
    Uganda
  • ‘ Institutionalising’ agriculture at the regional level
    • Role and functions of the future Nile Basin Commission?
    • (based on the CFA)
    • Role:
        • Providing guidelines?
        • Regulator? Watchdog?
        • Developmental?
    • Functions (what priority?):
        • Policy Formulation and Cooperation
        • Knowledge Management
        • Basin Planning
        • Market Development
    Egypt Should it be the NBC or a REC performing these functions?
  • Thanks for your attention! [email_address] Tanzania