Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin
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Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin

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Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin Presentation Transcript

  • Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin EPD Seminars King’s College London 1st November 2011 Ana Elisa Cascão Stockholm International Water Institute
  • The Nile River Basin THE REGION 10+1 riparian states 160 million inhabitants Underdeveloped (but growing) economies Conflict-stricken region Low levels of regional integration Complex hydropolitics
  • abc of Nile Basin Hydropolitics SECURITISATION HYDRO-SOVEREIGNTY COOPERATION
      • Uneven distribution
      • Inequitable utilisation
      • Water = Politics
      • Water = National Security
      • Water = Sovereignty
      • Power asymmetries
      • Hydro-Hegemony
      • Problematic water agreements
      • Past: conflicts
      • Water-Sharing: political priority
  • Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011
    • Egypt:
    • ‘ Hydraulic state’ still expanding
    • Monopoly of the Nile waters
    • Stronger and more diversified economy
    • Monolithic and stable political system
    • Support of international community
    • Upstream:
    • Agriculture-based economies (rainfed)
    • Weaker but growing economies
    • Shadow of conflicts still present
    • Changing geopolitics
  • Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011 Changing realpolitik : new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ... ‘ Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources Regional integration: Towards economic multilaterism Unilateralism: Unilateral hydraulic development
  • The Hydropolitical chessboard pre-2011 Official ‘ dyad’ UpstreamBloc
  • 2011: Tipping point(s) in the hydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basin
  • Implications of the several ‘events’?
  • Republic South Sudan: Referendum and independence
  • Egypt: Revolution and Fall of Mubarak
  • Burundi signs the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)
  • Ethiopia: Grand Renaissance Dam and Tripartite Committee
    • Nile Basin:
    • The future is not what it used to be!
    Thanks for your attention [email_address]