Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin
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Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

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  • Post-Mubarak Egypt has softer line on Nile: With the downfall of Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian leaders are showing more willingness to discuss sharing the waters of the Nile River with other African states.

Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin Presentation Transcript

  • Grand Millenium Dam in Ethiopia: moving from multilateralism towards unilateralism in the Nile Basin? Ana Elisa Cascão Transboundary Water Seminar Stockholm, 13 December 2011
  • The Nile Basin: between ideals and politics World Bank, 2000 Verhoeven, 2011
  • The Nile: a long history of skewed bilateralism
    • British colonial period
    • Anglo-Egyptian Condominium
    • 1929 Nile Waters Agreement
    • 1959 Agreement for the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters
    • Several Infrastructures (dams and irrigation schemes): Sennar (1925), Jebel Aulia (1937), Owen Falls (1954), Khashm El-Girba (1964), Aswan High Dam (1971), Roseires (1971), Jonglei Canal (1984...)
  • The Nile region: cocktail of water & politics
  • 1990s: the Nile gets multilateral
    • Multilateral dialogue among riparians (including legal negotiations
    • Strong technical commitment, but ‘soft’ political commitment
    • Financial and political support from external donors
    • Promotion of a ‘Shared Vision’ (SVP)
    • Identification and preparation of Investment Projects (SAPs)
    • Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies on joint projects
    • Launching of Cooperative Regional Assessement (CRAs)
    • Promotion One System Inventory (No-borders analysis)
  • Eastern Nile Basin: trilateral cooperation
    • Joint collaboration, identification and selection of projects/infrastructures
    • Joint Multipurpose Projects
    • Maximisation of regional benefits
    • Scoping Study
    • Scenarios
    • Benefit and Cost Sharing
    • Option Number 1: Blue Nile Cascade
    • Lack of institutional/legal ‘background’
    ‘ Opportunities for Cooperative Water Resources Development on the Eastern Nile: Risks and Rewards’ (ENTRO, 2008)
  • The cooperation cascade > > > >
  • Meanwhile... Unilateralism had been the fashion!
  • 2011: Tipping points in the Nile hydropolitics
  • Grand Renaissance Dam in the Blue Nile: an unilateral Ethiopian project?
  • Once upon a time... A bilateral project ‘sold’ as unilateral... An unilateral speech calling for multilateral cooperation... Trilateral cooperation starts in the Eastern Nile for the 1st time in history
  • Finally a riparians-driven cooperation?
    • ‘ We can make the issue of the Grand Renaissance Dam something useful.
    • This dam, in conjunction with the other dams, can be a path for development and construction between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt ’
    • (Egypt's caretaker Prime-Minister Essam Sharaf, November 2011)
  • Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’
  • Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’
  • Thanks for your attention! [email_address]