Double-faced Hydropolitical Cooperation in the Nile Basin Dr. Declan Conway, UEA and Ana Elisa Cascão, KCL World Water Week 2009

Hydropolitics in the Nile Basin FEATURES Complex hydrology Strong power asymmetries Absence of basin-wide management Conflict over water allocation Weak levels of regional integration 1980s-1990s “ Emblematic events” Drivers for collaboration/cooperation Multilateral processes initiated

FEATURES

Complex hydrology

Strong power asymmetries

Absence of basin-wide management

Conflict over water allocation

Weak levels of regional integration

1980s-1990s

“ Emblematic events”

Drivers for collaboration/cooperation

Multilateral processes initiated

Nile Cooperation: 2 tracks 1997: COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEEMENT 1999: NILE BASIN INITIATIVE Cooperation in time of “abundance”

Double-faced Cooperation EFFECTIVE NBI: strong team of technical experts (capacity-building) Broader sense of cooperation (BS+WS) Addressing legal issues More balanced up-downstream barganing power Identification of investment projects (SAPs) Recognition of multiple benefits COUNTER-EFFECTIVE Weak influence technocrats  politicians Deadlocked legal framework No strong basin institution Still politicised/securitised Lack of political commitment Few cooperative facts-on-the-ground Increasing risk of unilateralism

EFFECTIVE

NBI: strong team of technical experts (capacity-building)

Broader sense of cooperation (BS+WS)

Addressing legal issues

More balanced up-downstream barganing power

Identification of investment projects (SAPs)

Recognition of multiple benefits

COUNTER-EFFECTIVE

Weak influence technocrats  politicians

Deadlocked legal framework

No strong basin institution

Still politicised/securitised

Lack of political commitment

Few cooperative facts-on-the-ground

Increasing risk of unilateralism

Flashback and Flashforward Future Past

Learning from the past: case studies of climate events in the Nile basin What were the responses to these events and what was the role of Nile Basin institutions in these responses? Do extreme climate events lead to conflict or cooperation? How does cooperation/conflict influence adaptation? Events Droughts in Ethiopia, low Blue Nile flows and low level of Lake Nasser (Egypt/Sudan) in mid 1980s. Flooding and blockage on Nile in Uganda, 1998-2000 Low levels of Lake Victoria, 2005-2007

What were the responses to these events and what was the role of Nile Basin institutions in these responses?

Do extreme climate events lead to conflict or cooperation?

How does cooperation/conflict influence adaptation?

Impacts on power supply, urban water supply, transport, fish landing sites, fears for health of ecosystem Tensions between Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya Role of regional institutions: cooperative interactions instigated through East African Community, study of water balance and proposed revision to water release policy Tensions not yet resolved Lake Victoria – drop in level

Impacts on power supply, urban water supply, transport, fish landing sites, fears for health of ecosystem

Tensions between Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya

Role of regional institutions: cooperative interactions instigated through East African Community, study of water balance and proposed revision to water release policy

Tensions not yet resolved

Scenarios of climate and water use for discussion Future Climate Change impact on water Hydro-political situation Decrease in Nile flows Increase in Nile flows Maintenance of status-quo Adaptation necessary throughout basin, reduced options for adaptation for upper basin riparians Positive adaptation possible for Egypt and Sudan (need for upper basin to adapt to flood risk) Increasing use of water by upstream countries Adaptation options of upper basin countries may disadvantage adaptation of downstream countries Adaptation options available to all riparians?

Cooperation in time of “abundance” is likely to be more effective than in time of “stress” 10 years on: Momentum for reflexive cooperation 2009: Political “emblematic events” in the Nile Basin Towards more effective cooperation: Reduced power asymmetries Ownership of the process Ratification of the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) Linkage between CFA and “Benefits-Creation” Seizing the momentum!

Cooperation in time of “abundance” is likely to be more effective than in time of “stress”

10 years on: Momentum for reflexive cooperation

2009: Political “emblematic events” in the Nile Basin

Towards more effective cooperation:

Reduced power asymmetries

Ownership of the process

Ratification of the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)

Linkage between CFA and “Benefits-Creation”

Thanks for your attention!

Thanks for your attention!