Transboundary Water Resources – Power, Conflict and Cooperation Ana Cascão King’s College of London WISC CONFERENCE 2008 Ljubljana, Slovenia

Transboundary Water Resources –

Power, Conflict and Cooperation

Ana Cascão

King’s College of London

WISC CONFERENCE 2008

Ljubljana, Slovenia

WATER – Complex Puzzle Agriculture Industry Hydropower Tourism Services Domestic Use Users Politicians Institutions Infra- structures Laws Markets Environment Religion INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY

WATER – Natural, Political and Transboundary Resource 69 59 57 40 38 263 Transboundary River Basins Source: TFDD Oregon State Univeristy, 2001

MIDLLE EAST – 3 HYDRO-HOTSPOTS Nile Jordan Tigris-Euphrates NILE BASIN 10 riparian states JORDAN BASIN 5 riparian states TIGRIS-EUPHRATES BASIN 3 riparian states

WATER WARS – Alarmism and Misconceptions ... SCARCITY, WATER WARS, ARMED CONFLICTS, NATIONAL SECURITY... ...WATER, THE OIL OF THE 21st CENTURY, THE BLUE GOLD...

WATER COOPERATION – Jargons and Business ... HYDRO-SOLIDARITY, WATER FOR PEACE, WATER CONFLICTS PREVENTION... ... WATER A A CATALYST FOR REGIONAL PEACE AND COPERATION... ... NEGOTIATIONS, AGREEMENTS, BASIN COMMISSIONS, INVESTMENT, INFRASTRUCTURES...

... Sharing water with the neighbours... Inequitable control , distribution and allocation of the water resources among riparians of the same River Basin Asymmetric Power WHY?

Inequitable control , distribution and allocation of the water resources among riparians of the same River Basin

Asymmetric Power

HYDRO-HEGEMONY – Dimensions of Power Geography Material power Bargaining power Ideational power 4 PILLARS OF POWER Zeitoun and Warner, 2006

UNRAVELLING POWER ASYMMETRIES EGYPT (HH) SUDAN ETHIOPIA Geography Geography Geography Material power Material power Material power Bargaining power Bargaining power Bargaining power Ideational power Ideational power Ideational power Adapted from Zeitoun and Warner, 2006 TURKEY (HH) Bargaining power Ideational power SYRIA Geography Material power Bargaining power Ideational power IRAQ Geography Material power Bargaining power Ideational power Nile Basin Tigris-Euphrates Basin Geography Material power

GEOGRAPHY - A Powerful Tool? Nile Jordan Tigris-Euphrates TIGRIS-EUPHRATES BASIN Hegemon: TURKEY Upstream riparian JORDAN BASIN Hegemon: ISRAEL Midstream riparian NILE BASIN Hegemon: EGYPT Downstream riparian Asymmetric Distribution and Utilisation of water resources ASYMMETRIC POWER RELATIONS HYDRO- HEGEMONY

MATERIAL POWER – Economic, Military and Technical “ Resource Capture” Strategy Aswan High Dam (Egypt) Southern Eastern Anatolia Project GAP (Turkey) National Water Carrier (Israel) Israel, Egypt and Turkey 3 major recipients of US economic and military aid 3 Industrialised economies 3 Regional military powers

BARGAINING POWER - Who controls the “rules of the game”, controls the water WHO CONTROLS THE NEGOTIATIONS? WHO CONTROLS THE AGREEMENTS? WHO CONTROLS THE NUMBERS? WHO CONTROLS THE AGENDA? WHO CONTROLS THE LEGITIMACY? WHO PLAYS BETTER WITH INTERNATIONAL LAW? WHO HAS ACCESS TO INVESTMENT?

IDEATIONAL POWER – Who controls the perceptions, controls the water Asymmetric Knowledge Sanctioned Discourse Incentives Playing with time Silent Co-option Ambiguity Diplomacy/ Cooperation

HYDRO-HEGEMONY CAN BE CHALLENGED!

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