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Cascao London Resisting Hegemony Nile Basin

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  • 1. RESISTING HEGEMONY ON THE NILE III Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 12-13 May 2007 Ana Elisa Cascão King’s College of London
  • 2. ABSTRACT MODEL OF HEGEMONY AND COUNTER-HEGEMONY
  • 3. EGYPTIAN STATUS QUO ?
    • HISTORIC, ACQUIRED, AND ESTABLISHED RIGHTS
    • 55.5 bcm
    • 1959 Agreement
    • No infrastructures upstream
    • Extreme Nile-dependence
    • Rule of Experts
    • BEYOND THE STATUS QUO
    • More water
    • More facts-on-the-ground
  • 4. MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM . . .
    • Consenting?
    • or
    • Contesting?
  • 5. SCARCITY OF POWER?
    • Civil wars
    • Political instability
    • Lack of investment
    • Lack of international backup
    • Knowledge gap
    • Lack of expertise
    • Weak negotiation tools
    • +
    • Different priorities
    • Dogmatic claims
    Veiled Consent! ?
  • 6. SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistance
    • PAST
    • Ally in the hegemonic game
    • PRESENT
    • Official consent,
    • unofficial contestation
  • 7. SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistance
    • FUTURE
    • New oil-economy
    • New partners & investors
    • New ambitions?
    • New hegemon?
  • 8. ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistance
    • PAST
    • Nile as a mere diplomatic weapon
    • PRESENT
    • Official discourse
    • Nile = Development
  • 9. ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistance
    • FUTURE
    • Systematic use of the Nile waters?
    • Irrigation?
    • Hydropower?
  • 10. MECHANISMS OF RESISTANCE
    • 1 – Violent
    • 2 – Functional
    • 3 – Cooperative
    • 4 – Liberating
    • Military acts
    • Support to opposition groups
    • Internal violence
    • Bellicose threats
    • Reactive Diplomacy
    • Pro-Active Diplomacy
    • Mobilise “alternative” funding
    • Unilateral infrastructures
    • Cooperation with “internal” parties ( excluding the hegemon)
    • Cooperation with “internal” parties ( including the hegemon)
    • Cooperation involving with “external” parties
    • Knowledge/Expertise construction
    • Discourse Alternatives
    • Coalitions with Progressive Forces
  • 11. NILE BASIN INITIATIVE?
    • Cooperation as DOMINATION?
    • Agenda setting
    • Legal issues
    • Business-as-usual
    • State-nation based
    • Cooperation as BATTLEGROUND?
    • Creation of “new” knowledge
    • Reduce expertise gap
    • Opportunities for new investment/infrastructures
    • Potetial for Basin as the unity for action
  • 12. CONCLUSION
    • Some Resistance
    • No Counter-Hegemony
    • Riparians will not give up of national-based plans
    • Hegemony in the Basin directly related with Global and Regional Politics

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