RESISTING HEGEMONY ON THE NILE III Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 12-13 May 2007 Ana Elisa Cascão King’s College of London
ABSTRACT MODEL OF HEGEMONY AND COUNTER-HEGEMONY
EGYPTIAN  STATUS QUO ? <ul><li>HISTORIC, ACQUIRED, AND ESTABLISHED RIGHTS </li></ul><ul><li>55.5 bcm </li></ul><ul><li>195...
MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM . . .  <ul><li>Consenting?  </li></ul><ul><li>or </li></ul><ul><li>Contesting? </li></ul>
SCARCITY OF POWER? <ul><li>Civil wars </li></ul><ul><li>Political instability </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of investment </li></...
SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistance <ul><li>PAST </li></ul><ul><li>Ally in the hegemonic game </li></ul><ul><li>PRESEN...
SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistance <ul><li>FUTURE </li></ul><ul><li>New oil-economy </li></ul><ul><li>New partners & ...
ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistance <ul><li>PAST </li></ul><ul><li>Nile as a mere diplomatic weapon </li></ul><ul...
ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistance <ul><li>FUTURE </li></ul><ul><li>Systematic use of the Nile waters? </li></ul...
MECHANISMS OF RESISTANCE <ul><li>1 – Violent  </li></ul><ul><li>2 – Functional </li></ul><ul><li>3 – Cooperative  </li></u...
NILE BASIN INITIATIVE? <ul><li>Cooperation as DOMINATION? </li></ul><ul><li>Agenda setting </li></ul><ul><li>Legal issues ...
CONCLUSION <ul><li>Some Resistance </li></ul><ul><li>No Counter-Hegemony </li></ul><ul><li>Riparians will not give up of n...
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Cascao London Resisting Hegemony Nile Basin

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Cascao London Resisting Hegemony Nile Basin

  1. 1. RESISTING HEGEMONY ON THE NILE III Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 12-13 May 2007 Ana Elisa Cascão King’s College of London
  2. 2. ABSTRACT MODEL OF HEGEMONY AND COUNTER-HEGEMONY
  3. 3. EGYPTIAN STATUS QUO ? <ul><li>HISTORIC, ACQUIRED, AND ESTABLISHED RIGHTS </li></ul><ul><li>55.5 bcm </li></ul><ul><li>1959 Agreement </li></ul><ul><li>No infrastructures upstream </li></ul><ul><li>Extreme Nile-dependence </li></ul><ul><li>Rule of Experts </li></ul><ul><li>BEYOND THE STATUS QUO </li></ul><ul><li>More water </li></ul><ul><li>More facts-on-the-ground </li></ul>
  4. 4. MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM . . . <ul><li>Consenting? </li></ul><ul><li>or </li></ul><ul><li>Contesting? </li></ul>
  5. 5. SCARCITY OF POWER? <ul><li>Civil wars </li></ul><ul><li>Political instability </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of investment </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of international backup </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge gap </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of expertise </li></ul><ul><li>Weak negotiation tools </li></ul><ul><li>+ </li></ul><ul><li>Different priorities </li></ul><ul><li>Dogmatic claims </li></ul>Veiled Consent! ?
  6. 6. SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistance <ul><li>PAST </li></ul><ul><li>Ally in the hegemonic game </li></ul><ul><li>PRESENT </li></ul><ul><li>Official consent, </li></ul><ul><li>unofficial contestation </li></ul>
  7. 7. SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistance <ul><li>FUTURE </li></ul><ul><li>New oil-economy </li></ul><ul><li>New partners & investors </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>New ambitions? </li></ul><ul><li>New hegemon? </li></ul>
  8. 8. ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistance <ul><li>PAST </li></ul><ul><li>Nile as a mere diplomatic weapon </li></ul><ul><li>PRESENT </li></ul><ul><li>Official discourse </li></ul><ul><li>Nile = Development </li></ul>
  9. 9. ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistance <ul><li>FUTURE </li></ul><ul><li>Systematic use of the Nile waters? </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>Irrigation? </li></ul><ul><li>Hydropower? </li></ul>
  10. 10. MECHANISMS OF RESISTANCE <ul><li>1 – Violent </li></ul><ul><li>2 – Functional </li></ul><ul><li>3 – Cooperative </li></ul><ul><li>4 – Liberating </li></ul><ul><li>Military acts </li></ul><ul><li>Support to opposition groups </li></ul><ul><li>Internal violence </li></ul><ul><li>Bellicose threats </li></ul><ul><li>Reactive Diplomacy </li></ul><ul><li>Pro-Active Diplomacy </li></ul><ul><li>Mobilise “alternative” funding </li></ul><ul><li>Unilateral infrastructures </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperation with “internal” parties ( excluding the hegemon) </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperation with “internal” parties ( including the hegemon) </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperation involving with “external” parties </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge/Expertise construction </li></ul><ul><li>Discourse Alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>Coalitions with Progressive Forces </li></ul>
  11. 11. NILE BASIN INITIATIVE? <ul><li>Cooperation as DOMINATION? </li></ul><ul><li>Agenda setting </li></ul><ul><li>Legal issues </li></ul><ul><li>Business-as-usual </li></ul><ul><li>State-nation based </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperation as BATTLEGROUND? </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of “new” knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce expertise gap </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunities for new investment/infrastructures </li></ul><ul><li>Potetial for Basin as the unity for action </li></ul>
  12. 12. CONCLUSION <ul><li>Some Resistance </li></ul><ul><li>No Counter-Hegemony </li></ul><ul><li>Riparians will not give up of national-based plans </li></ul><ul><li>Hegemony in the Basin directly related with Global and Regional Politics </li></ul>
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