Cascao London Cooperative Framework Agreeement Nile

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  • I downloaded the PPT of Ana and made use of it in a presentation under development about the Nile Waters post 2011 and South Sudan.
    I am still looking for the full text of the CFA to which anna alluded in refenece to arrticle 14
    Tag Elkhazin elkhazin@subsaharacentre.ca
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  • Cascao London Cooperative Framework Agreeement Nile

    1. 1. NEGOTIATIONS FOR A NEW NILE TREATY Rapport de Forces Presentation to HH4 Workshop May 2008 Ana Elisa Cascão King’s College of London
    2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>Hydro-Hegemonic configuration in the Nile Basin </li></ul><ul><li>Ongoing water negotiations </li></ul><ul><li>HH and CHH at the negotiation table </li></ul><ul><li>Bargaining powers </li></ul><ul><li>Use of constructed ambiguity </li></ul><ul><li>External pressure </li></ul>Fable of the water negotiations in the Nile River Basin If we are both masters, then who shall lead the mules? Arab Proverb Conclusion External Pressure Ambiguity Stakes in the negotiations “ Water Security” Negotiations, HH and CHH NBI & CFA Tmeline Introduction
    3. 3. Timeline Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) & Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) 1995 1997 1999 2001 2007 ? 10 YEARS OF NEGOTIATIONS 2003 Nile River Basin Action Plan Establishment of the D3 Project Beginning of negotiations (D3 Project) Establishment of The NBI and its structure Preparation of the NBI projects ICCON Donors Meeting Creation of the Nile Basin Trust Fund Expected end of negotiations of the Nile Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) Bargaining process End of negotiations Nile Basin Trust Fund Meeting Signature and Ratification of the CFA ? Nile Basin Commission ? Conclusion External Pressure Ambiguity Stakes in the negotiations “ Water Security” Negotiations, HH and CHH NBI & CFA Timeline Introduction
    4. 4. Negotiations, HH and CHH <ul><li>HEGEMONIC </li></ul><ul><li>DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS </li></ul><ul><li> New Agreement </li></ul><ul><li> Renegotiation of volumetric allocations </li></ul><ul><li> Prior use </li></ul><ul><li> Acquired rights </li></ul><ul><li> Prior Notification </li></ul><ul><li> “ New water” </li></ul><ul><li> No-harm Principle </li></ul><ul><li>River Basin Organisation </li></ul><ul><li> STATUS QUO </li></ul><ul><li>NON-HEGEMONIC UPSTREAM RIPARIANS </li></ul><ul><li> New Agreement </li></ul><ul><li> Renegotiation of volumetric allocations </li></ul><ul><li> New uses </li></ul><ul><li> Acquired rights </li></ul><ul><li> Prior Notification </li></ul><ul><li> Investment </li></ul><ul><li> Equitable and reasonable utilisation Principle </li></ul><ul><li> River Basin Organisation </li></ul><ul><li> STATUS QUO </li></ul>UN WB Rapport de Forces ? Conclusion External Pressure Ambiguity Stakes in the negotiations “ Water Security” Negotiations, HH and CHH NBI & CFA Timeline Introduction
    5. 5. “ Water Security”- the way out?  10 years of negotiations   Way out of the dillema?  “ Water Security” Bargaining Process + Ambiguity + External Pressure Conclusion External Pressure Ambiguity Stakes on the negotiations “ Water Security” Negotiations, HH and CHH NBI & CFA Timeline Introduction
    6. 6. “ Water Security”?!? NILE COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT [...] Article 14: “(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin State .&quot; Egypt/Sudan proposal: “ (...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to adversely affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State.” [...] 7 votes in favour 2 votes against No consensus End of technical/ ministerial talks High political level No signature/ No ratification No RBO? No funding? End of the NBI? Moral point of the story? Conclusion External Pressure Ambiguity Stakes in the negotiations “ Water Security” Negotiations, HH and CHH NBI & CFA Timeline Introduction
    7. 7. ≠ Stakes in the Negotiations HEGEMONIC DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS Play with time Delay the “cooperative” process Avoid the supersession of the 1959 Agreement Maintain sanctioned discourse on Prior Use  STATUS QUO NON-HEGEMONIC UPSTREAM RIPARIANS Improve bargaining power Isolate politically the downstream riparians Get access to international funding Guarantee the support of the World Bank  STATUS QUO Conclusion External Pressure Ambiguity Stakes in the negotiations “ Water Security” Negotiations, HH and CHH NBI & CFA Timeline Introduction
    8. 8. Use of Ambiguity <ul><li>CONSTRUCTIVE AMBIGUITY </li></ul><ul><li>Accomodate ≠ positions </li></ul><ul><li>Incorporate  principles </li></ul><ul><li>Defuse conflicts </li></ul><ul><li>De-block the stalemate in the enduring negotiations </li></ul><ul><li>“ A move forward” </li></ul><ul><li>DESTRUCTIVE AMBIGUITY </li></ul><ul><li>Illusionary consensus </li></ul><ul><li>Obstacles to implementation </li></ul><ul><li>Adjournment of resolution </li></ul><ul><li>Re-creation of conflicts </li></ul><ul><li>“ A move back” </li></ul>Conclusion External Pressure Ambiguity Stakes in the negotiations “ Water Security” Negotiations, HH and CHH NBI & CFA Timeline Introduction
    9. 9. External Pressure UN WB Bilateral Donors No Agreement No Cooperation No RBO No Funds     Conclusion External Pressure Ambiguity Stakes in the negotiations “ Water Security” Negotiations, HH and CHH NBI & CFA Timeline Introduction
    10. 10. Conclusion <ul><li>Thanks for your attention! </li></ul><ul><li>HH and CHH transferred to the negotiation table </li></ul><ul><li>Protracted conflictive positions </li></ul><ul><li>Ambiguity – solution or obstacle? </li></ul><ul><li>Role of external pressure </li></ul>Conclusion External Pressure Ambiguity Stakes in the negotiations “ Water Security” Negotiations, HH and CHH NBI & CFA Timeline Introduction

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