Unravelling current hydropolitical cooperation in the Nile Basin NATO/Arava Water Conference Ein Gedi, Israel November 19-21 2007 Ana Elisa Cascão KCL/LSE London Water Group Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction

NILE RIVER BASIN 10 Riparian States Egypt/Sudan : Main water users 1959 Agreement Upstream Riparians : Negligible water use No Allocations Inequitable Water Sharing: Nexus Power, Conflict & Cooperation Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction

10 Riparian States

Egypt/Sudan :

Main water users

1959 Agreement

Upstream Riparians :

Negligible water use

No Allocations

Inequitable Water Sharing:

Nexus Power, Conflict & Cooperation

ASSYMETRIC POWER Three-dimensional power (Lukes,1974; Zeitoun and Warner,2006) Coercive Power Bargaining Power Ideational Power Hydro-hegemony and Counter-hegemony co-exist (Cascão, 2006) Conflict and Cooperation co-exist (Mirumachi, 2007) WATER ALLOCATION AND DISTRIBUTION Assymetries Hegemony/Counter Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction

Three-dimensional power (Lukes,1974; Zeitoun and Warner,2006)

Coercive Power

Bargaining Power

Ideational Power

Hydro-hegemony and Counter-hegemony co-exist (Cascão, 2006)

Conflict and Cooperation co-exist (Mirumachi, 2007)

HYDRO-HEGEMONY & HYDRO-COUNTER-HEGEMONY  HEGEMONY Attainment, maintenance and consolidation of the status quo  COUNTER-HEGEMONY/ RESISTANCE Confrontation and/or opposition to existing status quo and its legitimacy Cascão, 2006 Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction

POWER AND COOPERATION Coercive Power Bargaining Power Ideational Power Assymetries Mirumachi, 2007 Hegemony/Counter Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction

Coercive Power

Bargaining Power

Ideational Power

Funding Technical Issues Resource Capture Legal Agreements CONFLICT AND COOPERATION ON THE NILE Cascão, 2004 What about Power Relations? Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction

NILE COOPERATION TIMELINE 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 1959 Agreement 1967 Hydromet 1983 Undugu 1992 TeccoNile 1999 NBI 2007 Cooperative Framework Agreement Bilateral Cooperation Multilateral cooperation Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction STATUS QUO... Risk-taking Cooperation? Ad-Hoc/Technical cooperation Risk-averting Cooperation Assymetric Power Relations Bargaining & Ideational Power Coercive & Bargaining Powers

NBI & Investment Source: GTZ, 2007 Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction

NBI – in search of a legal status Nile Basin Initiative Provisional cooperative arrangement Nile Basin Commission Permanent river basin organisation Cooperative Framework Agreement Assymetric Power Relations Bargaining & Ideational Power Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction

Cooperative Framework Agreement (June 2007) The first multilateral Nile Treaty? Ratification? Article 14: “(...) Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin State ." Egypt/Sudan: “(...) Not to adversely affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin States". Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction

The first multilateral Nile Treaty?

Ratification?

Article 14: “(...) Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin State ."

Egypt/Sudan: “(...) Not to adversely affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin States".

COOPERATION as... COUNTER-HEGEMONY? Bargaining power Creation of “new” knowledge Reduce expertise gap Opportunities for investment/ infrastructures Potential for Basin management or HEGEMONY? Agenda setting Time factors Legal issues Business-as-usual State-nation based Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction

COUNTER-HEGEMONY?

Bargaining power

Creation of “new” knowledge

Reduce expertise gap

Opportunities for investment/

infrastructures

Potential for Basin management

or HEGEMONY?

Agenda setting

Time factors

Legal issues

Business-as-usual

State-nation based

Thank you! [email_address] Cooperation and Hegemony NBI & Legal NBI & Investment Nile Cooperation Power & Cooperation Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony Power relations Introduction