Real India conclave_Bihar

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Views shared by Dr Amit Kapoor at the Real India Conclave, organized by Dainik Jagran and exchange4media at Taj Mansingh, Delhi on June 29, 2012

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Real India conclave_Bihar

  1. 1. Bihar the Face of Emerging Markets in India Dr. Amit Kapoor
  2. 2. What is Competitiveness What is Competitiveness? • Competitiveness is the productivity with which a state utilizes its human, capital, and natural resources • Productivity determines wages and the standard of living – Productivity growth determines sustainable economic growth • Productivity depends on how a state competes, not what industries it competes in • Innovation in products and processes is necessary to drive productivity growth • Only productive businesses can create wealth and jobs States compete to offer the most productive environment for business • The public and private sectors play different but interrelated roles in creating a productive economy
  3. 3. Geographic Influences on Competitiveness • Influence and access federal Nation policies and programs • Integrate policies and Neighboring states infrastructure with neighbors States • Assist each metro area in Metropolitan Areas developing its own strategy • Connect rural regions with Rural Regions urban areas
  4. 4. Country Equivalents BAHA CUBA MAS Source: EIU 2011, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  5. 5. Stages of the Economy Factor-driven economies: Factor-driven economies focus on low-cost basic factor conditions, such as low-skilled labour, natural resources Stage 1 and geographic location. Factor-driven economies need to focus on input costs, macro, political and legal stability, efficient basic infrastructure and lowering the regulatory cost of doing business. Investment-driven economies: Investment-driven economies would have the ability to produce standard products and services of high quality using efficient methods but at lower wages than advanced Stage 2 economies. Investment-driven economies need to focus on building efficiencies, enhancing local competition, market openness, incentives and rules for encouraging productivity. Innovation-driven economies: Innovation driven economies would focus on innovative products and services at the global technology Stage 3 frontier. Innovation driven economies would need to focus on advanced skills, advanced infrastructure, incentives and rules encouraging innovation.
  6. 6. Quality of the Business Environment Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry • Local rules and incentives that encourage investment and productivity e.g. - salaries, Factor - incentives for capital investments, Demand Conditions - intellectual property protection Conditions • Vigorous local competition i.e., - Openness to foreign and local Access to high quality business competition; Sophisticated and demanding - Sophistication of company operations inputs i.e., - Natural endowments, local customers and needs e.g., - Human resources, - Strict quality, safety, and - Capital availability, environmental standards - Physical infrastructure, Related and – Consumer protection laws - Administrative infrastructure, Supporting – Government procurement of - Information infrastructure, Industries advanced technology - Scientific and technological – Early demand for products and Local availability of suppliers and supporting infrastructure Services. industries Presence of clusters instead of isolated firms • Many things matter for competitiveness • Successful economic development is a process of improving the business environment to enable increasingly sophisticated ways of competing
  7. 7. Hierarchy of Measurement of State Competitiveness Index 2012 4 Major Pillars 12 Sub Indices 350* Indicators
  8. 8. Categorization of States Innovation Driven Economies (Per capita GDP 900 toCity States (Per capita GDP>1300 USD) 1300 USD) Transition Economies (Per capita GDP 800 to 900 USD) Investment Driven Economies (Per capita GDP 500 to 800 USD) Evolving / Changeover Economies (Per capita GDP 400 to 500 USD) Factor Driven Economies(Per capita GDP < 400 USD)
  9. 9. States in various Categories Microeconomic Competitiveness Categorization Ranks City States (Per capita Incomes >1300 USD) Delhi 1 Goa 2 Innovation Driven Economies (Per capita Incomes 900 to1300 USD) Haryana 1 Maharashtra 2 Gujarat 3 Kerala 4 Transition Economies (Per capita Incomes 800 to 900 USD) Punjab 1 Tamil Nadu 2 Himachal Pradesh 3 Investment Driven Economies (Per capita Incomes 500 to 800 USD) Andhra Pradesh 1 Karnataka 2 Uttarakhand 3 West Bengal 4 Chhattisgarh 5 Sikkim 6 Mizoram 7 Meghalaya 8 Arunachal Pradesh 9 Tripura 10 Transition Economies (Per capita Incomes 400 to 500 USD) Rajasthan 1 Jharkhand 2 Orissa 3 Jammu and Kashmir 4 Factor Driven Economies(Per capita Incomes < 500 USD) Bihar 1 Madhya Pradesh 2 Assam 3 Uttar Pradesh 4 Manipur 5 Nagaland 6 Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  10. 10. Near Term State Prosperity Performance 160000 Goa High but declining versus India Highly Productive and Prosperity 140000 Rising versus India Points Avera 57.28 All India GSDP /Capita Index India 120000 rate (CAGR) of 9.53 %Gross Domestic Product per Capita, 2011 All Delhi ge 100000 Haryana Maharashtra 80000 Gujarat Punjab All India Average Kerala Himachal Pradesh of 52,852 Tamil Nadu 60000 Karnataka Rupees/capita Sikkim Andhra Pradesh Uttarakhand Chhattisgarh West Bengal Meghalaya Arunachal Pradesh Mizoram Orissa Tripura Rajasthan 40000 Jammu & Kashmir Assam Jharkhand Madhya Pradesh Nagaland Manipur Uttar Pradesh Bihar 20000 Low and declining versus India Low but rising prosperity versus India 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Gross Domestic Product per Capita CAGR rate, 2009-2011
  11. 11. Prosperity and Competitiveness 90000 Goa Delhi 80000Per capita State Domestic product at constant price 2011 70000 60000 Haryana 50000 Kerala Maharashtra Gujarat Himachal Pradesh Tamil Nadu Punjab 40000 Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Sikkim Uttarakhand West Bengal Meghalaya 30000 Tripura Arunachal PradeshMizoram Chattisgarh Orissa Rajasthan Jammu and Kashmir Jharkhand Manipur Assam Madhya Pradesh 20000 Nagaland Uttar Pradesh Bihar 10000 0 45 50 55 60 65 70 Microeconomic Competitiveness Scores Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  12. 12. Composition of Bihar’s Economy Agriculture Forestry and Fishing 16% Industry Services 24% 60%
  13. 13. Composition of Bihar’s Economy in Greater Depth 7.00 Trade, hotel and restaurant Strong and Growing Position Railways Fishing 6.00 Forestry and logging Other servicesBihar /National GSDP share (Percent) ,2010 5.00 Agricuture Average of (Bihar/ Public sdministration and defence National sectoral )GSDP share is 2.97% 4.00 Construction 3.00 Real states, ownership of dwellings and business services Banking and insurance 2.00 Transport by other means Communication Electricity,Storage water supply gas and Manufacturing 1.00 Average of Change in contribution of Mining and quarrying (Bihar/National 0.00 sectoral), CAGR is 9.92% -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 -1.00
  14. 14. Manufacturing and Competitiveness 50000 Goa 45000 40000Manufacturing GSDP per capita in Rupees /Annum 35000 30000 25000 Gujarat 20000 Maharashtra Haryana 15000 Tamil Nadu Chattisgarh Karnataka Delhi 10000 Jharkhand Punjab Himachal Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Orissa Uttarakhand Kerala West Bengal Rajasthan 5000 Jammu and Kashmir Assam Uttar Pradesh Meghalaya Manipur Madhya Pradesh Nagaland Tripura Sikkim Bihar Arunachal Pradesh Mizoram 0 45 50 55 60 65 Microeconomic Competitiveness Score Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  15. 15. Services and Competitiveness 90000 Delhi 80000Services GSDP per capita in Rupees /Annum 70000 60000 Goa 50000 Maharashtra Haryana 40000 Kerala Punjab Tamil Nadu 30000 Karnataka Mizoram Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Sikkim West Bengal Himachal Pradesh Nagaland Uttarakhand Tripura 20000 Arunachal Pradesh Meghalaya Orissa Assam Jammu and Kashmir Chattisgarh Rajasthan Manipur Uttar PradeshMadhya Pradesh 10000 Jharkhand Bihar 0 45 50 55 60 65 70 Microeconomic Competitiveness Score Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  16. 16. Healthcare 9Percentage of Total government Expenditure on Medical, Health 8 Delhi 7 Mizoram 6 All India Average Goa 3.95% and Sanitation 5 Jammu & Kashmir Meghalaya Jharkhand Uttar Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Kerala Arunachal Pradesh Assam Tamil Nadu 4 Tripura Rajasthan Chhattisgarh West Bengal Uttarakhand Orissa Manipur Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Punjab Bihar Maharashtra 3 Nagaland Haryana Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Sikkim India All All India Average 2 1407.59 Crores 1 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Total Government Expenditure on Medical, Health and Sanitation in Crores
  17. 17. Government Hospitals versus Competitiveness 1800 Orissa Bihar 1600 1400Number of government Hoispitals 1200 1000 Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Maharashtra 800 Uttarakhand Tamil Nadu 600 Jharkhand Rajasthan Kerala Madhya Pradesh Gujarat Andhra Pradesh 400 West Bengal Punjab Chattisgarh Arunachal Pradesh Haryana 200 Assam Himachal Pradesh Delhi Jammu and Kashmir Nagaland Meghalaya Manipur Tripura Sikkim Goa Mizoram 0 45 50 55 60 65 Microeconomic Competitiveness Score Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  18. 18. 83.78 % All India Percentage of Villages electrified Average of 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0Jammu & KashmirHimachal Pradesh 98.24 98.14 Punjab Haryana 100 100 Uttar Pradesh 85.31 Rajasthan 67.1 Delhi 100 Uttarakhand 95.52 Bihar 52.85 Orissa 55.83 West Bengal 91.07 Assam 78.57 Meghalaya 59.29 Tripura 57.23 Percentage of Villages Electrified Mizoram 80.62 Manipur 83.89 Nagaland 64.4Arunachal Pradesh 56.82 Sikkim 94.44 Jharkhand 31.07 Gujarat 99.56 Maharashtra 87.69 Goa 100 Madhya Pradesh 96.35 Chhattisgarh 95.37 Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Kerala Tamil Nadu 100 98.7 100 100
  19. 19. Teledensity Teledensity vs GSDP per Capita 250 DelhiTeledensity ( No of connections Per 100 People) 200 s Point Index 57.28 ge Avera India All All India Average of 52852 Rs/ Capita 150 Himachal Pradesh Punjab 100 All India Average of Gujarat Haryana 66.17 % Andhra Pradesh Rajasthan Maharashtra Madhya Pradesh Bihar Uttar Pradesh Goa Mizoram 50 Nagaland Tripura Meghalaya Manipur Arunachal Pradesh Kerala Assam Karnataka Orissa West Bengal Sikkim Uttarakhand Tamil Nadu Jharkhand& Kashmir Chhattisgarh Jammu 0 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 Per Capita GDP at current prices 2011
  20. 20. Debt to GDP ratio Debt to GDP Ratio of States West Bengal 42.8 Uttaranchal 41.1 Uttar Pradesh 43.5 Tripura 42.2 Tamil Nadu 25.5 Prescribed limit according to the Sikkim growth and stability Pact of EU 80.6 Rajasthan 41.1 Punjab 35.2 Orissa 30.6 Nagaland 59.4 Mizoram 109.1 Meghalya 37.3 Manipur 77.4 Maharashtra 25.1 Madhya Pradesh 34.4 Kerala 34.3 Karnataka 24.3 Jharkhand 33.6Jammu & Kashmir 70.1 Himachal 55.7 Haryana 19 Gujarat 32.1 Goa 35.5 Delhi 13.8 Prescribed limit according Chattisgarh 15.2 to WTO for developing Bihar 39.7 economies Assam 28 Arunachal 115.9 Andhra 30.1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
  21. 21. Demographic Profile of Bihar 12 MillionsPopulation in Numbers as per Expert group on Population, 2011 10 8 6 4 2 0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ years years years years years years years years years years years year years years years years years
  22. 22. Demographics of India 2011 Age Pyramid for India in 2011 80+ 4469 5163 75-79 6075 7017 70-74 8910 10034 65-69 11991 12406 60-64 16693 15712 55-59 22391 20447 50-54 28157 26038 45-49 33218 31993 40-44 36773 36691 Males 35-39 40596 40164 Female 30-34 46050 42855 25-29 54078 47877 20-24 62281 55757 15-19 63479 58248 10-14 61318 57259 5-9 60092 53394 0-4 60746 5413380000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Population of males / females in Thousands in 2011 Source: Census of India, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  23. 23. Demographics of India 2026 Age Pyramid for India in 2026 80+ 8412 11465 75-79 9937 10644 70-74 15820 15819 65-69 22185 21982 60-64 28268 28651 55-59 32968 34124 50-54 37704 38267 45-49 43702 41361 40-44 51965 46466 Male 35-39 60313 54219 Female 30-34 61859 56739 25-29 60113 55998 20-24 59176 52410 15-19 59529 52739 10-14 59500 52734 5-9 58396 51790 0-4 55328 49256 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Projected Population of males / females in Thousands Source: Census of India, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  24. 24. Overall Dependence Ratio of States Dependence Ratios 2011 Dependence ratio 2026 West Bengal 44.58 42.35 Uttarakhand 56.39 47.88 Uttar Pradesh 66.11 55.02 Tamil Nadu 43.07 43.78 Rajasthan 60.51 46.67 Punjab 46.62 41.77 Orissa 48.47 43.43 NE States Excluding Assam 44.57 42.23 Maharashtra 48.85 42.72 Madhya Pradesh 60.18 48.37 Kerala 45.23 45.96 Karnataka 45.97 43.46 Jharkhand 55.35 47.13 Jammu & Kashmir 50.27 43.11 Himachal Pradesh 46.91 42.87 Haryana 51.12 41.24 Gujarat 48.40 43.16 Delhi 39.96 34.81 Chattisgarh 57.45 48.40 Bihar 49.71 47.67 Assam 51.97 45.14 Andhra Pradesh 45.05 42.4980.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 Dependence ratio 2011 Dependence ratio 2026 Source: Census of India, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  25. 25. Literacy Rates versus GDP 16 India All 14 Bihar All India Average 77.12% ChattisgarhGDP growth rate (CAGR 2006-2010) 12 Orissa Haryana 10 All India Average 7.14% Gujarat Delhi Andhra Pradesh Kerala Uttarakhand 8 Jharkhand Punjab Rajasthan Karnataka Arunachal Pradesh Sikkim Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Meghalaya West Bengal Goa Assam 6 Nagaland Himachal Pradesh Manipur Uttar Pradesh Tripura Mizoram Jammu & Kashmir Madhya Pradesh 4 2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Literacy rates in percentage terms
  26. 26. Literacy rates versus Competitiveness 100 95 Kerala Mizoram 90 Tripura Goa Delhi 85 Himachal Pradesh Sikkim MaharashtraLiteracy Rates Nagaland Manipur Tamil Nadu Uttarakhand 80 West Bengal Punjab Haryana Meghalaya Karnataka 75 Orissa Gujarat Assam Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Uttar Pradesh 70 Jammu and Kashmir Jharkhand Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Rajasthan 65 Bihar 60 45 50 55 60 65 Microeconomic Competitiveness Score Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  27. 27. Percentage of factories in operation versus total number of factories 16 Bihar Nagaland Tripura Jharkhand 14 Manipur India All All India Average ofPercentage of factories not in operation 6198 Factories/state 12 10 Kerala Andhra Pradesh 8 Orissa Delhi All India Average of Tamil Nadu Assam 4.1% factories not in Chhattisgarh 6 operation/state Karnataka average Himachal Pradesh Maharashtra Uttarakhand Uttar Pradesh 4 Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Jammu & Kashmir West Bengal Gujarat Punjab Haryana 2 Meghalaya Goa 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Total number of factories
  28. 28. Industries in Bihar Sugarcane Textiles/ Sericulture Agro based Industries Manufacturing Petrochemical Tourist center
  29. 29. Major Cities in Bihar
  30. 30. State of Cluster Development :Bihar by Total Number of Enterprises Agricultural Glass and Furniture related services industriesWood and Agricultural Domestic Forest Products and electric TelevisionProducts Industries and allied electronic Other industries Other Processed Service Lighting transportat food Industries Electric ion Publishing equipment and Printing Medical Machinery equipment and Equipment Automotiv e Pulp and Apparels Textiles Paper and related industries Chemicals Production Tobacco Minerals Footwear Rubber and Leather Oil and Gas Plastic Metals industries Industries Mining Top 7 types of Industries in Bihar 15-21 types of Industries in Bihar 7-14 types of Industries in Bihar 21-28 types of Industries in Bihar
  31. 31. State of Cluster Development :Bihar by Total Number of People Employed Agricultural Glass and Furniture related services industriesWood and Agricultural Domestic Forest Products and electric TelevisionProducts Industries and allied electronic Other industries Other Processed Service Lighting transportat food Industries Electric ion Publishing equipment and Printing Medical Machinery equipment and Equipment Automotiv e Pulp and Apparels Textiles Paper and related industries Chemicals Production Tobacco Minerals Footwear Rubber and Leather Oil and Gas Plastic Metals industries Industries Mining Top 7 ranked types of Industries in Bihar 15-21 ranked types of Industries in Bihar 7-14 ranked types of Industries in Bihar 21-28 ranked types of Industries in Bihar
  32. 32. Energy Usage Statistics 1800 Goa 1600 1400Per Capita Energy Usage ( Units) Punjab 1200 Gujarat Delhi 1000 Tamil Nadu Average Energy Average Per capita Haryana Himachal Deficit is 9.8% energy usage is 564 800 Karnataka Maharashtra units. Andhra Chattisgarh 600 Orissa Uttaranchal Jharkhand Rajasthan Sikkim Meghalya Madhya Pradesh Kerala 400 West Bengal Jammu & Kashmir Uttar Pradesh Mizoram 200 Assam Tripura Arunachal Nagaland Manipur Bihar 0 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% Energy Deficit
  33. 33. Poverty and Rural Development 1400.00 Goa MizoramPer Capita Revenue Expenditute on Rural Arunachal 1200.00 India’s poverty Meghalya Sikkim ratio rural is 28.3% 1000.00 Average per Development capita rural 800.00 expenditure is Uttaranchal Rs 564 Haryana Chattisgarh Rajasthan Nagaland Madhya Pradesh 600.00 Himachal Maharashtra Gujarat Orissa Manipur Jharkhand West Bengal Tripura Assam Andhra 400.00 Bihar Karnataka Jammu & Kashmir Uttar Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala 200.00 Delhi Punjab 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Poverty Ratio - Rural
  34. 34. National Highway Infrastructure versus Competitiveness 7000 Uttar Pradesh 6000 Rajasthan Andhra PradeshLength of Total National Highways, In Km 5000 Madhya Pradesh Tamil Nadu Karnataka Maharashtra 4000 Orissa Bihar Gujarat Assam 3000 West Bengal Chattisgarh Uttarakhand Jharkhand 2000 Punjab Kerala Haryana Jammu and Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Manipur Mizoram Meghalaya 1000 Nagaland Arunachal Pradesh Tripura Goa Delhi Sikkim 0 45 50 55 60 65 70 Microeconomic Competitiveness Score Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  35. 35. Airport Infrastructure versus Competitiveness 9 West Bengal 8 Gujarat 7 6Numbers of Domestic Airports 5 Karnataka Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh 4 Assam Kerala Himachal Pradesh Nadu Tamil Punjab 3 Uttar Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir Mizoram Rajasthan Uttarakhand 2 Meghalaya Nagaland Tripura Orissa Chattisgarh Bihar Goa Haryana Delhi Manipur Jharkhand 1 Arunachal Pradesh Sikkim 0 45 50 55 60 65 Microeconomic Competitiveness Scores Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  36. 36. Teledensity versus Competitiveness Delhi 200Teledensity , Phones per 100 people in the population 150 Himachal Pradesh 100 Punjab Haryana Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Rajasthan Maharashtra Madhya Pradesh Goa Nagaland Uttar Pradesh Bihar 50 Manipur Tripura Arunachal Pradesh Mizoram Meghalaya Assam Kerala Orissa Karnataka West Bengal Sikkim Tamil Nadu Uttarakhand Jammu and Kashmir Jharkhand Chattisgarh 0 45 50 55 60 65 70 Microeconomic Competitiveness Scores Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis

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