Jammu and kashmir

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Jammu and kashmir

  1. 1. STATE PROFILES – JAMMU AND KASHMIR
  2. 2. ECONOMIC CHALLENGE FOR CHIEF MINISTERS IN 2012 Achieving Fiscal Stability Enhancing State Competitiveness • Competitiveness is the only way to achieve sustainable job growth, improving incomes and stable public finances • Creating a clear economic strategy for the state that engages all stakeholders is even more important in times of budget cutting and austerity
  3. 3. HIERARCHY OF MEASUREMENT OF STATE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX 4 Major Pillars 12 Sub Indices 350* Indicators* Approximate figure
  4. 4. STAGES OF THE ECONOMY Innovation Driven Economies (Per capita GDP 900 toCity States (Per capita GDP>1300 USD) 1300 USD) Transition Economies (Per capita GDP 800 to 900 USD) Investment Driven Economies (Per capita GDP 500 to 800 USD) Evolving / Changeover Economies (Per capita GDP 400 to 500 USD) Factor Driven Economies(Per capita GDP < 400 USD)
  5. 5. STATES ACCORDING TO CATEGORIZATION Microeconomic Competitiveness Categorization Ranks City States (Per capita Incomes >1300 USD) Delhi 1 Goa 2 Innovation Driven Economies (Per capita Incomes 900 to1300 USD) Haryana 1 Maharashtra 2 Gujarat 3 Kerala 4 Transition Economies (Per capita Incomes 800 to 900 USD) Punjab 1 Tamil Nadu 2 Himachal Pradesh 3 Investment Driven Economies (Per capita Incomes 500 to 800 USD) Andhra Pradesh 1 Karnataka 2 Uttarakhand 3 West Bengal 4 Chhattisgarh 5 Sikkim 6 Mizoram 7 Meghalaya 8 Arunachal Pradesh 9 Tripura 10 Evolving/ Changeover Economies (Per capita Incomes 400 to 500 USD) Rajasthan 1 Jharkhand 2 Orissa 3 Jammu and Kashmir 4 Factor Driven Economies(Per capita Incomes < 500 USD) Bihar 1 Madhya Pradesh 2 Assam 3 Uttar Pradesh 4 Manipur 5 Nagaland 6 Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  6. 6. NEAR TERM STATE PROSPERITY PERFORMANCE 9Gross Domestic Product per Capita real growth rate, 2008-2011 Haryana Low but rising versus India Chhattisgarh Highly Productive and Prosperity Bihar Rising versus India Maharashtra 8 Himachal Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Orissa 7 Karnataka Punjab Sikkim Uttarakhand Arunachal Pradesh Kerala Assam Gujarat Rajasthan Tripura 6 Tamil Nadu West Bengal Goa Delhi Points Index 57.28 Average All India Meghalaya All India GSDP Jharkhand /Capita rate Mizoram (CAGR) of 6.27 % 5 Manipur Madhya Jammu & Kashmir Pradesh All India Average 4 Nagaland of 47,998 Low and declining versus India Rupees/capita High but declining versus India 3 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 Gross Domestic Product per Capita, 2011
  7. 7. COMPETITIVENESS: UNDERLYING CONCEPTS • Competitiveness is the productivity with which a state utilizes its human, capital, and natural resources • Productivity determines wages and the standard of living – Productivity growth determines sustainable economic growth • Productivity depends on how a state competes, not what industries it competes in • Innovation in products and processes is necessary to drive productivity growth • Only productive businesses can create wealth and jobs. States compete to offer the most productive environment for business • The public and private sectors play different but interrelated roles in creating a productive economy
  8. 8. JAMMU AND KASHMIR PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT Position Trend Prosperity Productivity Labour Mobilization State of Clusters Type of Economy Transition Economy Top 33.33% of the states 33.33%-66.67% of Lighting and electric industries the states Leading Clusters Wood and forest products Agricultural Products 66.67% to 100% of Other service Industries the states
  9. 9. JAMMU AND KASHMIR COMPETITIVENESS – OVERALL PERFORMANCEINDICATORS Prosperity Clusters Gross State Domestic Product per Capita, 2011 Rank: 3 Total Number of People employed in all Factory sector Rank: 4 • In Jammu and Kashmir Rs. 32,532 • In Jammu and Kashmir 53,023 • In India Rs. 47,998 • In India 1,15,06,838 • State Difference to India -32.22%. • State Employment to total India Employment (factory sector) 0.46% Growth in Gross State Domestic Product per Capita, 2008-11 , (CAGR) Rank: 4 • In Jammu and Kashmir 4.62% • In India 6.28% Productivity Labour Mobilization Population, 2011 Rank: 4 Gross State Domestic Product per labour force participant, 2011 Rank: 3 • In Jammu and Kashmir 1,25,48,926 • In Jammu and Kashmir Rs 74,237 • % of India 1.03% • In India Rs 1,21,265 • State Difference to India -38.78% Population Growth, GAGR, 2001-2011 Rank: 1 • In Jammu and Kashmir 2.15% Growth in Gross State Domestic Product Rank: 4 • In India 1.61% per Labour force participant, 2001-11 • In Jammu and Kashmir 5.72% Employment, 2010 Rank: 4 • In India 8.44% • In Jammu and Kashmir 2516638 • % India 0.88% Average Private Wage in 2008-09, Rank:4 • In Jammu and Kashmir Rs 47,742 Employment growth, annual rate, 2000-2010 Rank: 1 • In India Rs 64,741 • In Jammu and Kashmir 2.70% • State Difference to India -26.25.% • In India 2.05% Private Wage Growth, CAGR, 2000-2009 Rank:4 Unemployment, 2010 (Per hundred People) Rank: 1 • In Jammu and Kashmir 2.57% • In Jammu and Kashmir 27.40 • In India 4.53% • In India 9.39 Change in Unemployment rate, 2000-2010 Rank: 1 • In Jammu and Kashmir 308.96% • In India 41.37
  10. 10. UNDERSTANDING STATE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE Jammu & Kashmir 40000 37014 35000GSDP at current price at factor cost in Rupees Crore 34973 32932 31793 30000 29030 26537 25000 24265 22194 20000 20326 18039 16700 15000 15660 10000 5000 0 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  11. 11. CONTRIBUTION OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR’S GSDP TO INDIAN GSDPGSDP at current price at factor cost in Rupees Crore 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Jammu & Kashmirs GDP Indian GDP Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Ratio of Jammu and Kashmirs GSDP to Indian 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.98 0.94 0.92 0.89 0.83 0.79 0.72 0.70 0.74 GDP in Percentage Terms Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  12. 12. WHAT DRIVES STATE PRODUCTIVITY 3. Proper Policy 1. Overall business 2. Stage of Economy enactment and strong climate conducive to (strong clusters) rule of law growth
  13. 13. MODEL USED FOR ANALYSIS Climate for Innovation based local rivalry • Local rules and incentives that encourage investment and productivity e.g. - salaries, Factor - incentives for capital investments, Demand Conditions - intellectual property protection Conditions • Vigorous local competition i.e., - Openness to foreign and local competition; - Sophistication of company operations Access to high quality business inputs i.e., Sophisticated and demanding local - Natural endowments, customers and needs e.g., - Human resources, - Strict quality, safety, and environmental - Capital availability, Clusters of Related standards - Physical infrastructure, and Supporting – Consumer protection laws - Administrative infrastructure, Industries – Government procurement of - Information infrastructure, advanced technology - Scientific and technological infrastructure – Early demand for products and Local availability of suppliers and supporting industries Services. Presence of clusters instead of isolated firmsSource: Michael E Porter
  14. 14. IMPROVING PRODUCTIVITY IN BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Key Issues for States • More power in terms of tax sharing with center • Reduce costs of doing business • Developing training programs which meet the specific needs of the state industrial clusters • Focus on infrastructure investments on the most leveraged areas for productivity and economic growth • Implementing policies to support small growth businesses • Enhancing the state’s skill development and training institutions for the same • Relentlessly improve of the public education system, the essential foundation
  15. 15. GEOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ON COMPETITIVENESS • Influence and access federal Nation policies and programs • Integrate policies and Neighboring states infrastructure with neighbors States • Assist each city area in City Regions developing its own strategy • Connect rural regions with Rural Regions urban areas
  16. 16. CONTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURE SECTOR TO GSDP 40000GSDP at current price at factor cost in Rupees Crore 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Ratio of AgriculturalGSDP in Jammuand Kashmir tothe total GSDP 31.31 30.40 30.33 31.00 31.79 30.26 29.13 27.88 26.65 27.71 27.47 27.25 in Jammu and Kashmir in Percentage terms Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  17. 17. CONTRIBUTION OF MANUFACTURING SECTOR TO GSDPGSDP at current price at factor cost in Rupees Crore 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Ratio of Manufacturi ng GSDP in Jammu and Kashmir to the total 4.71 4.38 4.12 3.98 4.15 5.64 5.74 6.25 6.56 6.34 6.49 6.61 GSDP in Jammu and Kashmir in Percentage terms Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  18. 18. CONTRIBUTION OF SERVICE SECTOR TO GSDPGSDP at current price at factor cost in Rupees Crore 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Ratio of Services GSDP in Jammu and Kashmir to the total 45.90 46.15 45.30 46.15 45.20 43.62 44.37 44.39 44.17 43.96 43.85 43.74 GSDP in Jammu and Kashmir in Percentage terms Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  19. 19. COMPOSITION OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR’S ECONOMY Agriculture, forestry and fishing Services 27% 44% Industry 29% Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  20. 20. COMPOSITION OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR’S ECONOMY 3000000 2549085 2500000GSDP in Rs. Crore 2000000 1492375 1500000 1000000 924340 500000 10087 10737 16190 0 Agriculture, forestry and fishing Industry Services Indian contribution Jammu and Kashmir’s contribution Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  21. 21. COMPOSITION OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR’S ECONOMY IN GREATER DEPTH 2.5 2Jammu and Kashmir/National GSDP share (Percent) ,2011 Public administration and defence Electricity, gas and water supply Forestry and logging 1.5 Construction 1 Agricuture Other services Fishing Communication 0.5 Banking and insurance Transport by other means Real states, ownership of dwellings and Trade, hotel and restaurant business services Manufacturing Storage Mining and quarrying Railways 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 -0.5 Change in contribution of GSDP of Jammu and Kashmir to total Indian GSDP, CAGR (2000-2011)
  22. 22. STATE PRIVATE WAGE PERFORMANCE 160000 140000 Jharkhand Wage Growth rate 4.53%Average Wages in Rupees ,2009 120000 Uttaranchal Orissa 100000 Maharashtra Goa Average Wage : Rupees 64,741 80000 Chhattisgarh West Bengal Madhya Pradesh Haryana Karnataka Gujarat Meghalaya Delhi Himachal Pradesh Uttar Pradesh 60000 Andhra Pradesh Punjub Tamil Nadu Kerala Rajasthan Jammu & Kashmir Bihar Assam 40000 Manipur Tripura Nagaland 20000 Low and declining versus India Low but rising versus India 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis Wage Growth (CAGR), 2001 to 2008
  23. 23. LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 400000GSDP at Current Prices per labour force participant, 2011 Goa 350000 High but declining versus India Highly productive and Productivity rising versus India 300000 Points Index 57.28 e Averag India All Delhi All India Average of 250000 8.44% Haryana 200000 All India Average of of Punjab Maharashtra Kerala Gujarat 1,21,265 Rupees/Labour Himachal Pradesh 150000 force participant Tamil Nadu Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Sikkim West Bengal Uttarakhand Chhattisgarh Mizoram Nagaland 100000 MeghalayaTripura Pradesh Arunachal Orissa Rajasthan Jammu & Kashmir Assam Jharkhand Manipur Madhya Pradesh Uttar Pradesh 50000 Bihar Low and declining versus India Low but rising versus India 0 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 GSDP /Labor force participant growth rate(CAGR) Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  24. 24. LONG TERM JOB GROWTH 90000000 Uttar Pradesh 80000000 70000000 All India Average of 60000000 2.05%Number of Jobs, 2011 50000000 Maharashtra Bihar 40000000 West Bengal Andhra Pradesh All India average of Madhya Pradesh 30000000 1,62,99,464 Jobs Tamil Nadu Rajasthan /State Karnataka Gujarat 20000000 Orissa Jharkhand Kerala Assam Punjab Haryana Chhattisgarh 10000000 Delhi Uttarakhand Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Nagaland Goa Tripura Mizoram Manipur Arunachal Pradesh Meghalaya 0 Sikkim 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Losing Jobs Job growth rate CAGR, 2001-2010 Gaining Jobs Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  25. 25. LONG TERM UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 30 Goa jharkhand 25 s Point Index 57.28 ge Avera India All Below average Unemployment All India Average of - 20 2.12% RajasthanUnemployment rate 2010 Bihar Unemployment Rising 15 Unemployment rate All India Average of Meghalaya 9.39% West Bengal kerala Gujarat Punjab MizoramOrissa Uttar Pradesh 10 Haryana Nagaland Manipur Tripura Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Above Average Himachal Pradesh Assam Unemployment Sikkim Maharashtra Jammu and Kashmir Tamil Nadu 5 Uttarakhand Chhattisgarh Karnataka Delhi 0 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Change in Employment rate 1999-2010 Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  26. 26. NEAR TERM UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 30 Goa jharkhand Points Avera 57.28 Index All India Average of - India 25 6.55% All ge 20Unemployment rate 2010 Rajasthan Bihar 15 All India Average of Meghalaya West Bengal 9.39% Punjab Gujarat kerala Orissa Haryana 10 Uttar Pradesh Manipur Mizoram Nagaland Madhya Pradesh Tripura Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Sikkim Assam Himachal Pradesh Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Jammu and Kashmir Uttarakhand 5 Chhattisgarh Karnataka Delhi 0 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Change in Employment rate 2008 to 2010 Source : Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  27. 27. GROSS AREA SOWN VERSUS IRRIGATED AREA 100000 Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh 10000 Gujarat West Bengal Punjab Karnataka Chhattisgarh BiharOrissaHaryanaLog of area sown in ‘000 hectares Assam Kerala All India Average Jharkhand 67,41,000 Uttarakhand 1000 Himachal Pradesh & Kashmir Jammu hectares India All All India Average Meghalaya Nagaland Arunachal Pradesh Tripura 30,03,000 hectares Goa 100 Sikkim Mizoram Delhi 10 1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Log of Irrigated Area in ‘000 hectares Source: MOA, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis, Data as of 2010
  28. 28. HEALTHCAREPercentage of Total government Expenditure on Medical, Health 10 Delhi 9 8 7 and Sanitation 6 Goa Jammu & Kashmir Uttarakhand All India Average 5 Manipur Himachal Pradesh 4.02% AssamKerala Meghalaya West Bengal Tamil Nadu Tripura Nagaland Uttar Pradesh Mizoram Rajasthan 4 Gujarat Sikkim Chhattisgarh Karnataka Jharkhand Haryana Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Orissa Punjab Bihar 3 Arunachal Pradesh India All 2 All India Average 1633 Crores 1 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Total Government Expenditure on Medical, Health and Sanitation in Crores Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  29. 29. PERCENTAGE OF VILLAGES ELECTRIFIED 120 100 100.0 100.099.7100.098.2 98.2 99.9100.0 100.0 100.0All India 100 96.9 96.4 96.9 97.3 94.4Average of 88.3 85.8 88.384.96 % 80.8 80.6 80 69.2 64.4 62.6 61.3 59.3 60 56.8 57.2 40 31.1 20 0 Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  30. 30. TELEDENSITY 140000 Goa 120000 y = 429.3x + 12630 R² = 0.388 Delhi 100000 Haryana 80000GSDP per Capita Maharashtra Gujarat Punjab Kerala Himachal Pradesh 60000 Tamil Nadu Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Sikkim Arunachal Pradesh Bengal West MeghalayaChhattisgarh Mizoram Tripura Orissa Uttarakhand 40000 Jammu & Kashmir Rajasthan Nagaland Jharkhand Manipur Madhya Pradesh Uttar Pradesh 20000 0 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 Teledensity Source: Ministry of telecom, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  31. 31. DEBT TO GDP RATIO West Bengal 42.8 Prescribed limit according to the Uttaranchal 41.1 growth and stability Pact of EU Uttar Pradesh 43.5 Tripura 42.2 Tamil Nadu 25.5 Sikkim 80.6 Rajasthan 41.1 Punjab 35.2 Orissa 30.6 Nagaland 59.4 Mizoram 109.1 Meghalya 37.3 Manipur 77.4 Maharashtra 25.1 Madhya Pradesh 34.4 Kerala 34.3 Karnataka 24.3 Jharkhand 33.6 Jammu & Kashmir 70.1 Himachal 55.7 Haryana 19 Gujarat 32.1 Goa 35.5 Delhi 13.8 Prescribed limit according Chattisgarh 15.2 to WTO for developing Bihar 39.7 economies Assam 28 Arunachal 115.9 Andhra 30.1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  32. 32. RURAL POPULATION VERSUS RURAL POPULATION GROWTH RATES 4.000 Meghalaya Arunachal Pradesh Bihar Mizoram Manipur Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Rajasthan Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Uttar Pradesh 2.000 Assam Orissa Maharashtra Himachal Pradesh Haryana Gujarat Uttarakhand Punjab KarnatakaBengal West Tamil Nadu Tripura Andhra Pradesh 0.000 Sikkim 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000Growth rate (CAGR 2001-2011) Nagaland Goa Thousands -2.000 Kerala -4.000 -6.000 Delhi -8.000 -10.000 Population in Rural areas as per census (provisional Data) in Thousands Source: Census 2011, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  33. 33. URBAN POPULATION VERSUS URBAN POPULATION GROWTH RATES 12 Sikkim 10Growth rate (CAGR 2001-2011) 8 Kerala Tripura 6 Nagaland Haryana 4 Manipur Uttarakhand Chhattisgarh Arunachal Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Goa Bihar Gujarat Meghalaya Jharkhand Karnataka Assam Orissa Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Mizoram Delhi Madhya Pradesh Tamil Nadu Punjab West Bengal Maharashtra 2 Himachal Pradesh 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Thousands Population in Urban areas as per census (provisional Data) in Thousands Source: Census 2011, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  34. 34. 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 0 151,726 455,962 561,977 529037 313,446 1069165 906,309 551414 573,741 1406861 822,132 1899624 595,036 2368971 960,981 2,710,051 688,704 6167805 3,091,169 7,025,583 3,414,106Source: Census 2011, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis 9134820 16,333,916 419319 8,821,588 Urban Population in 2011 16531493 5,936,538 19603658 10,387,436 RURAL AND URBAN POPULATION IN INDIA 17,316,800 4,388,756 26780516 7,929,292 25,036,946 15,932,171 17455506 6,996,124 Rural Population in 2011 34,951,234 25,712,811 34670817 23,578,175 37552529 17,080,776 51,540,236 34,949,729 37,189,229 20,059,666 52537899 28,353,745 56311788 29,134,060 62,213,676 11,729,609 92075028 50,827,531 61545441 44,470,455 155,111,022
  35. 35. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR 1265000 1400000 1215000 1134000 1106000 1103000 1076000 1200000 903000 1000000 Population in Numbers 769000 693000 800000 625000 520000 600000 403000 302000 400000 228000 171000 113000 92000 200000 0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ years years years years years years years years years years years year years years years years years Source: Institute for Competitiveness Analysis
  36. 36. RURAL URBAN AND TOTAL POPULATION 120 DelhiUrban Population as a percentage of total Population 100 All India Average India 67.02% All 80 Goa Tamil Nadu Maharashtra 60 Kerala Mizoram Gujarat Karnataka All India Average Punjab Pradesh Andhra Bengal West Haryana 32.98% MadhyaUttar Pradesh Pradesh 40 Rajasthan Uttarakhand Manipur Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Nagaland Chhattisgarh Tripura Sikkim Orissa Arunachal Pradesh Bihar Meghalaya Assam 20 Himachal Pradesh 0 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 -20 Rural Population as a percentage of total Population Source: Census 2011, Institute for Competitiveness Analysis

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