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1337161382 an overview of the pharmaceutical sector in bangladesh (may 2012)
 

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    1337161382 an overview of the pharmaceutical sector in bangladesh (may 2012) 1337161382 an overview of the pharmaceutical sector in bangladesh (may 2012) Document Transcript

    • Analyst: Khandakar Safwan Saad safwan@bracepl.com (880) 173 035 7779 An Overview of the Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 Introduction The pharmaceutical market in Bangladesh is pretty small compared to the population size of the country, mainly because of the lack of spending power of the population. Pharmaceutical spending is also amongst the lowest in the world in per capita terms. Healthcare expenditures consist of only 3.35% of GDP. However, increased awareness of healthcare, increase in per capita income, emergence of private healthcare services and the government’s increased expenditure in this sector, together with other factors, have caused the demand to rise in recent years. The sector is also protected from external competition as imports are completely restricted for similar drugs that are manufactured locally. This sector reports provides an overview of the pharmaceutical sector in Bangladesh and highlights the top performers that are listed in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh There are about 250 licensed pharmaceutical companies in Bangladesh. The industry contributes 1% to the country's GDP and is the third largest industry in terms of contribution to government revenue Pharmaceutical sector is technologically the most developed manufacturing industries in Bangladesh and the third largest industry in terms of contribution to government’s revenue. The industry contributes about 1% of the total GDP. There are about 250 licensed pharmaceutical manufacturers in the country; however, currently a little over 100 companies are in operation. It is highly concentrated as top 20 companies produce 85% of the revenue. According to IMS, a US-based market research firm, the retail market size is estimated to be around BDT 84 billion as on 2011. The market is dominated by branded generics, accounting for 85% of the total sales in the country Bangladesh pharmaceutical companied focus primarily on branded generic final formulations, mostly using imported APIs (Active Pharmaceuticals Ingredient). Branded generics are a category of drugs, including prescription products, that are either novel dosage forms of off-patent products produced by a manufacturer that is not the originator of the molecule, or a molecule copy of an off-patent product with a trade name. About 85% of the drugs sold in Bangladesh are generics and 15% are patented drugs - the structure differs significantly from the international market. Branded generic drugs represent about 25% on average of worldwide pharmaceuticals sales’; however, given the popularity in emerging markets like China, India and Latin America, branded generic drugs may well dominate the total sales within a decade. The market is almost self-sufficient in meeting local demand as 97% of the drugs are manufactured locally Bangladesh manufactures about 450 generic drugs for 5,300 registered brands which have 8,300 different forms of dosages and strengths. These include a wide range of products from anti-ulcerants, flouroquinolones, antirheumatic non-steroid drugs, non-narcotic analgesics, antihistamines, and oral anti-diabetic drugs. Some larger firms have also started producing anticancer and anti-retroviral drugs. Domestic manufacturers account for 97% of the drug sales in the local market while the remaining 3% are imported. This is a complete turnaround over from two/three decades back when imports
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 used to dominate the market. The imported drugs include essential live saving drugs and other high quality drugs. The ratio will further increase in favor of the local production as some of the big players are poised to manufacture these high quality drugs in-house in the future. Market Size and Growth Retail market registered 21.4% CAGR over the last three years, 17.2% over the last five years and 13.1% over the last decade As stated earlier, the size of the retail market reached BDT 84.0 billion as on 2011 based on IMS report. The report further stated that, retail sales in the domestic market achieved 23.6% growth in 2011 following 23.8% and 16.8% growth in 2010 and 2009 respectively. High growth in the last three years (78.8% cumulative and 21.4% CAGR) meant that the Bangladesh Pharmaceutical market doubled in just over four years. The retail market also crossed USD 1.0 billion in size in 2011. It is one of the fastest growing sectors in the country with an annual average growth rate of 17.2% over the last five years and 13.1% over the last decade. However, considering that IMS does not include rural market in their survey, the actual size of the market will vary slightly (5%-10%). It is estimated that the retail market represent 90% of the total market; in that respect the total market size (including the rural market) is expected to be over BDT 90.0 billion at present. Table 1: Retail Market Size & Growth Growth Table 2: Selected Health Indicators for Bangladesh Year Size (BDT b) Health Indicators 2009 2008 2005 2000 2011 2010 84.0 68.0 23.6% 23.8% Life Expectancy 68.3 68 66.9 64.7 Government % in total health exp. 31.7% 31.4% 34.9% 39.0% 2009 2008 54.9 47.0 16.8% 6.9% Health exp. as % of GDP 3.35% 3.32% 3.21% 2.82% 2007 44.0 15.8% Health exp. per capital (Current US$) 2006 2005 38.0 36.5 4.1% 17.5% Median Age (2011 estimate) Poverty Level 2004 2003 31.1 28.6 8.6% 5.9% 2002 2001 27.0 24.5 10.2% Source: Square Pharmaceuticals Annual Reports & IMS Report GDP per Capita (Current US$) 607.8 546.9 428.8 363.6 18.4 16.5 12.1 9.1 23.3 31.5% - NA 40.0% 48.9% Source: World Bank Drivers behind Market Growth The table above shows some selected health indicators for Bangladesh. Most of the indicators improved over the last decade which are among some of the factors that contributed to the growth of the sector.   Increased life expectancy, increased medical coverage of population, emergence of private healthcare services, growing income base of population and popularization of wellness drug are some of the factors contributing to high industry growth in recent times There has been a gradual demographic shift - life expectancy improved from 64.7 in 2000 to 68.3 in 2009 which highlights the increased health consciousness among the people. Also the income level of the population increased over the last decade which allowed them to spend more for healthcare. The base was also low as healthcare expenditure was less than 3% of GDP in 2000 with total pharmaceutical sector size of BDT 24.5 billion only in that year.  Increased medical coverage of population with new hospitals.  Emergence of private healthcare service - a number of top class hospitals started operating which includes Apollo Hospitals, Square Hospitals, United Hospitals and others. These hospitals became very 2
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 popular with the mass population due to their quality service; they have been a major factor contributing to increased healthcare expenditure.  Although government expenditure as a % of total healthcare expenditure did not improve in the last decade, there has been increased expenditure in in absolute terms. Growth in private expenditure was the primary reason behind fall in public % of expenditure.  Income base of the population has been growing over the last decade. Health expenditure per capita doubled in the last decade, indicating people’s willingness to spend more to remain healthy. Drivers for Future Growth Increase in government spending, increase in number of modern hospitals and increase in health consciousness of the people are some of the drivers for future growth Table 4 compares the indicators with other regions of the world and shows that Bangladesh is way behind other countries. Government spending proportion is much lower than that in other regions - it is one possible area where future growth may come from. Moreover, the total health expenditure to GDP ratio and health expenditure per capita of Bangladesh (both of which gradually increased from 2000) is very low in comparison to developed and developing countries. Since the base is still very low, we expect the recent growth in the local retail market to continue in the current decade. Some other factors that will also boost the industry growth includes:   2009 2005 2000 16.21% 14.72% 13.41% World 10.03% 9.73% 9.23% UK 9.34% 8.25% 7.04% Japan 8.35% 8.16% Afghanistan 7.36% 8.76% Export of pharmaceutical products Table 4: Comparison of health indicators (2009) with other regions South Bangladesh World Health Indicators Asia USA 69.4 65 79.4 78.1 Government % in total health exp. 31.7% 60.8% 32.9% 76.1% 48.6% 7.69% Health exp. as % of GDP 3.35% 10.03% 8.29% Health exp. per capital (Current US$) 5.82% 6.60% 4.56% Nepal 5.81% 5.91% 5.06% Thailand 4.31% 3.55% 3.40% India 4.17% 4.03% 4.61% Sri Lanka 3.96% 4.04% 3.72% Bangladesh 3.35% 3.21% 2.82% Pakistan 2.62% 2.78% 3.02% Life Expectancy EU 68.3 Nigeria Source: World Bank Growing income level of the people  USA General people are getting more health conscious  Region Increase in level of service/treatment provided in the hospitals with improved/more modern diagnostic equipments  Table 3: Healthcare exp as % of GDP Increase in number of modern hospitals 18.4 863.6 3.99% 10.31% 16.21% 40.2 3,370.7 7,410.2 Source: World Bank Growth Projections Table 3 shows the healthcare expenditure as % of GDP for neighboring countries to Bangladesh as well as some other developed countries as well. Bangladesh is way below in the list of countries with only Pakistan below in terms of healthcare expenditure percentage. If we assume that Bangladesh is going to achieve 6.5% real GDP growth rate over the next five years and healthcare expenditure to reach 5% of GDP by that time, then healthcare expenditure in nominal value will grow at 15.4% annually over the next five years. 3
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 With 6.5% forecasted GDP growth in the next five years and healthcare expenditure estimated to reach 5% of GDP in that time, domestic market is poised to grow over 15% annually in the next five years Bangladesh has been achieving around 6% GDP growth rate over the last decade. The current government has set target to achieve even higher growth rate in this decade, with a vision to achieve double-digit growth within 2018. As such, it is likely that the actual growth in GDP in the next five years will be greater than the projected 6.5% - in that case the growth in healthcare expenditure is likely to be more than our simple estimated value of ~15%. At present, the retail pharmaceutical market size is about 1% of GDP and health expenditure is about 3.35% of GDP. Therefore, the pharmaceutical sector revenue accounts for ~30% of the healthcare expenditure. If we assume that the ratio will remain constant over the years, pharmaceutical revenue will also grow at par - at 15.4% annually over the next five years. Major Players Square Pharmaceuticals holds the top market share, followed by Incepta Pharmaceuticals and Beximco Pharmaceuticals Top 10 companies hold 67.7% market share while top 15 companies hold 77.7% market share Based on the IMS report for the fourth quarter 2011, Square Pharmaceuticals (DSE: SQURPHARMA) holds the top market share in the retail market 18.7%, followed by Incepta Pharmaceuticals (INCEPTA) - 9.3%, Beximco Pharmaceuticals (DSE: BXPHARMA) - 8.8%, Opsonin Pharma (OPSONIN) 5.1% and Renata (DSE: RENATA) - 4.9%. The top five companies held 46.8% market share in 2011, slightly more than their 46.2% market holding in 2010 - indicating cumulative revenue growth in excess of the sector growth. Among the top five, three are listed in DSE – Square, Beximco and Renata. Top 10 companies held 67.7% of the market in 2011 as shown in chart 1. Growth at par with the entire market meant that there cumulative holding did not change from 2010 level. However, the market share shifted among the top players. SQURPHARMA lost 0.5% market share in the last year (from 19.2% in 2010) while the next four companies gained 1.1% market share in the same period. Growth in local sales of these four companies – INCEPTA, BXPHARMA, OPSONIN and RENATA – was 28.5% in 2011, increasing their market share from 27.0% in 2010 to 28.1% in 2011. Chart 2 in the next page compares the growth rate for the top companies. Table 5: Major players in the retail market Chart 1: Market Share Company Market Size (BDT m) Growth in 2011 Market Share 2011 2010 Square Pharmaceuticals Source: IMS Report 19.2% 9.3% 9.0% 7,415.0 30.5% 8.8% 8.4% Opsonin Pharma 4,275.4 27.2% 5.1% 4.9% Renata 4,076.8 26.1% 4.9% 4.8% 3,980.3 18.9% 4.7% 4.9% ACI Others 18.7% 28.6% Eskayef Bangladesh Top 10 20.5% 7,851.5 Beximco Pharmaceuticals 67.7% 15,725.8 Incepta Pharmaceuticals 32.3% 3,578.2 24.9% 4.3% 4.2% Acme Pharmaceutical 3,500.7 13.7% 4.2% 4.5% Aristopharma 3,412.8 26.3% 4.1% 4.0% Drug International 3,070.2 18.9% 3.7% 3.8% Top 10 Companies 56,886.5 23.6% 67.7% 67.7% Top 20 Companies 71,382.5 24.1% 84.9% 84.6% Others Companies 12,661.6 20.7% 15.1% 15.4% Total Sector 84,044.1 23.6% Source: World Bank 4
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 Chart 2: Growth of top ten companies in 2011 Acme Pharmaceutical 14% Eskayef Bangladesh 19% Drug International 19% Square Pharmaceuticals Sector ACI 21% 24% 25% Renata 26% Aristopharma 26% Opsonin Pharma Incepta Pharmaceuticals Beximco Pharmaceuticals 27% 29% 31% Source: IMS Report Square Pharma (1st), Beximco Pharma (3rd), Renata (5th), ACI (7th), GlaxoSmithKline (15th) and The IBN SINA (20th) are the top pharmaceutical companies that are listed in DSE If we go further down the list of top pharmaceutical companies, the top 15 companies held 77.7% market share in 2011 (which remained unchanged from 2010 level) and top 20 companies held 84.9% market share in 2011 (slightly higher than 84.6% in 2010). It can be easily seen from the numbers that the concentration of sales is centered among the top players, in particular, the local manufacturers. Local manufacturers dominate the industry, enjoying about 90% market share while multinationals hold little over 10% market share. Apart from SQURPHARMA, BXPHARMA and RENATA, three other companies among the top 20 companies are listed in the DSE - ACI (ranked 7th), GlaxoSmithKline Bangladesh (ranked 15th) and The IBN SINA (ranked 20th). API About 80% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are imported as there are only a few local companies (usually the leading ones) that are engaged in manufacturing APIs. However, the number is really small (below 50) compared to the total requirement. These local companies usually run the relatively easier final chemical synthesis stage with API intermediaries, instead of the complete chemical synthesis. 80% of the APIs are imported. Government has planned to build a API park to facilitate local production of the raw material which will lower the cost by ~20% Companies were able to contain raw material cost despite depreciating local currency as they have been importing more raw materials from India and China (low cost producers), shifting from Europe. For many APIs, the domestic market is too small to justify an API manufacturing plant - the initial investment and the production scale required are high. However, the government has planned to set up an API park to facilitate the production of several APIs for the local manufacturers. The value addition for the backward linkage will not be much as the country will again need to import the basic chemicals for manufacturing APIs. It is estimated that cost of APIs will decrease by about 20% if the API park is established. The government initially set a target to complete the project by 2012 but realistically, it is unlikely that the manufacturing park will be completed within the stipulated time. Since the APIs are imported, the companies are exposed to exchange rate risk. The local currency depreciated significantly against USD over the last decade as shown in chart 3 in next page. However, the local companies were able to contain the manufacturing cost by shifting the import source of APIs to low cost manufacturers. As per discussion with the management of Beximco 5
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 Chart 3: USD-BDT exchange rate from 2000 onwards: 90 80 70 60 50 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 40 Source: www.oanda.com Pharmaceuticals, China and India currently accounts for more than two-thirds of the imported raw materials while the remaining materials are imported from Europe; back in 2000, 80% of the APIs were imported from Europe. The decrease in API cost from changing the source off-set most of the adverse movement in the exchange rate. Pricing of Drug The Directorate of Drug Administration (DDA), the national drug regulatory authority, regulates drug manufacturing, import and quality control of drugs in Bangladesh as well as fixing the price. It belongs to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. DDA fixes the price of “essential drugs” with companies having no power in this regard. Companies do get to set the price of other drugs, however, DDA gives the final approval for raising price The DDA regulates the pricing of all the drugs in the country. In particular, the local companies have no say in setting the price for “essential drugs” (a list of lifesaving drugs decided by the government). Revision of price of these drugs takes place few and far between and as such the margin is usually lower for these drugs. Local manufactures usually do not focus much on these items for generating business growth. The companies do get to set the price of other drugs; however the final price is approved by the DDA. The companies submit new price to the DDA based on (increased) cost of production which the regulatory body scrutinizes. They cannot set too high a price as the DDA takes into account the purchasing power of the population as well as the price proposed by other manufacturers (for the same generic of drug). Nevertheless the companies do make the bulk of the margin from these “non-essential drugs”. Recent Trend in Pricing Price of most of the drugs increased in recent times following steep depreciation of BDT again USD in 2011; it is likely that such increase in price will drive the growth of the industry (in nominal terms) The price of most of the drugs increased in recent times owing to higher manufacturing cost. Since the companies have already shifted the import source of the raw materials to low cost producers (China and India), further relocation is not feasible. As such, adverse movement in exchange rate is likely to increase the raw material cost for most of the manufacturers. Moreover, there has been multiple hikes in electricity and fuel prices in the last one year which has also pushed the cost of operating business in the country. As a result the price increased for most of the “non-essential” drugs in the last one/two quarters. It is likely that the price increase will impact the financial statements in this year and drive the growth of the industry (in nominal terms). 6
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 TRIPS Bangladesh is exempted till December 31, 2015 to implement patent protection for pharmaceuticals and other products The World Trade Organization's (WTO) Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement permits Bangladesh to reverse-engineer patented generic pharmaceutical products to sell locally and export to markets around the world. The 1994 WTO agreement TRIPS requires signatories to implement patent protection for almost all products, including pharmaceuticals. However, article 66 provides Least Developed Countries (LDCs) with a breathing space before introducing full product patent protection. Bangladesh is therefore exempt until 2016 from the requirement to observe patent protection on reverse-engineered generic products destined for the local market. Bangladesh imports approximately 80% of its APIs for domestic production, ~20% of which are patented. Bangladesh also enjoys some export advantages from TRIPS with regards to exporting pharmaceutical goods:  Bangladesh can export generic drugs to markets where the patent owner has not filed for protection. Most drugs on WHO’s Model List of Essential Drugs are not patented, as affordability is one of the criteria used in designating medicines as “essential.”  Bangladesh can export to other LDCs or non-WTO members which have not implemented product patent protection, for example Myanmar.  Bangladesh can also export to a country which has issued a compulsory drug license and awarded the production contract to Bangladesh. TRIPS grants governments the right to issue a compulsory license for public health purposes, which occurs when a government overrides a patent and grants another entity the right to produce the patented product. It may do all of this without paying royalties to the patent owner. The cost of importing APIs will most likely rise as TRIPS phases in. However, it is likely that WTO would extend the facility for another 10 years on ground of public health situation and technology transfer issue for producing patent drugs in the LDCs. WTO will review extension of TRIPS agreement waivers by the end of 2013. In case the TRIPS agreement is not extended beyond 2015, the local manufacturer will face a number of constraints including: In case the TRIPS agreement is not extended beyond 2015, Bangladeshi companies will face cost pressure in importing patented APIs and producing patent drugs. However, the impact may not be devastating as proportion of patent drugs is very small in our market  Import cost of patented APIs are likely to increase.  The cost of manufacturing patented drugs will also increase as the companies are likely to pay royalty to the original manufacturer.  Export of patented products will become costly. However, the cost pressure is likely to be associated with a lower proportion of drugs as less than 20% drugs are patented in the current market. Moreover, a number of blockbuster drugs have already lost patent or are about to lose patent in the international market within this year, including Plavix, Lipitor, Seroquel, Actos, Enbrel, Singulair, Levaquin, Zyprexa and Concerta. With passage of time, more drugs are set to lose patent rights, as such the post TRIPS era (if it happens in 2016), is not likely to have a devastating impact in the pharmaceutical market in Bangladesh. 7
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 Underlying Threat The advantages that TRIPS provide for Bangladesh are somewhat offset by the pace and competitiveness of the Indian and Chinese generic markets. In both the countries, companies can produce drugs at highly competitive pricing, even with higher costs associated with buying patented APIs or paying royalties. Bangladesh will have to rely on the standard business practices of producing the highest quality product at the lowest price to compete on the international market which may be difficult to achieve in the near term. The reliance on imported APIs remain as the major threat to the industry Bangladesh has a competitive disadvantage (when compared to India and China), since the local pharmaceutical industry is not backward-integrated. Most of the APIs have to be imported, and even if the APIs are manufactured in the country, the basic raw materials still have to be imported. As such construction of API Park is not likely to add too high a value in the pharmaceutical manufacturing value chain. This results into higher factor costs, especially in cases where the provider of the API is a competitor in selling the finished product. Building up backward-integration for all relevant APIs is also not a realistic option because of scale disadvantages and infrastructure constraints. The reliance on importing API remains to be the only significant threat for the pharmaceutical industry in Bangladesh. Cost structure and Margins for Pharma Industry Production cost is about 50%-55% for the pharmaceutical companies in Bangladesh, which results into 45%-50% gross margin for most of the companies. Raw materials, including API, excipients, packaging materials and others, account for 75% of the production cost while the remaining 25% is the conversion cost. Operating cost is about 25% of sales for an average pharmaceutical company, most of which is dominated by selling and marketing expenses (more than three-fourth of the operating cost). Operating margin is about 20%-25% and net profit margin (NPM) varies around 15% for the industry. The NPM is usually better for the listed companies as they enjoy significant tax rebate for listing. 37.5% corporate tax is applicable for non-listed companies in Bangladesh while it goes down to 27.5% for listing in the stock exchange. Listed companies further enjoy 10% rebate for paying out more than 20% of paid-up capital as cash dividend corporate tax rate is only 24.75% for them. Table 6 shows the cost structure & margin for the top three listed companies (pharmaceutical business only). Chart 4: Tax Rates for Companies 37.50% Table 6: Cost Structure of Top 3 listed companies Square Beximco Renata Gross Margin Listed Source: BRAC EPL Research Listed with 20% cash dividend 48.9% 52.7% 20.4% 23.7% 27.1% 15.7% 20.1% NA 22.4% 25.2% 25.7% PBT Margin Non-Listed 42.8% Operatinf Margin 24.75% Operating Exp to sales Marketing Exp to sales 27.50% 25.3% 21.0% 22.2% 6.5% 4.8% 5.5% Net Margin 18.8% 16.2% 16.7% Effective tax rate 25.8% 22.8% 24.6% Tax expense to sales Source: BRAC EPL Research 8
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 Chart 5: Pharmaceutical Export and Growth (BDT m) Chart 6: Pharmaceutical and Organic Chemical Import (USD m) 2,800.0 120% 600.0 2,400.0 100% 500.0 2,000.0 80% 1,600.0 60% 1,200.0 40% 800.0 20% 400.0 0% 400.0 300.0 0.0 -20% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Pharmaceuticals (LHS) 2009 2010 2011 200.0 100.0 0.0 2003 2004 2006 Pharmaceuticals Growth (RHS) Source: Bangladesh Bank and Export Promotion Bureau 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Organic Chemical Source: Bangladesh Bank Export and Import Table 7: Pharma Export (USD m) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total 2011 10.4 12.4 12.3 10.9 46.0 2010 9.4 8.7 10.1 11.4 39.6 2009 8.8 8.5 10.2 12.7 40.1 Source: Export Promotion Bureau Some of the top companies already received the UK-MHRA Certificate while the US FDA approval is waiting in the pipeline for many companies Export Sales is likely to drive companies„ revenue once domestic market reaches steady growth Bangladesh’s overall export earnings from pharmaceuticals reached USD 46.0 billion for the calendar year 2011, recording a growth of 16.1% over USD 39.6 billion in calendar year 2010. Exports earnings in Q1’2012 was USD 10.9 billion, 5.7% up from the same period previous year. Table 6 shows the quarter wise export earnings for the last three years while Chart 5 shows the total export over the last eight fiscal years*. Pharmaceutical export from Bangladesh recorded 25.5% growth annually over the last seven years. However, the growth was not steady across all the years - in fact in FY2009 pharmaceutical export dropped 1.8% following the global financial crisis. In FY2011 also, the growth was only 1.0% because of sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Apart from these two years where trade slowed down significantly worldwide, pharmaceutical export was robust in all other years. We expect the export growth to pick up from 2012 onwards given that the world trade is likely to recover from the sovereign debt crisis. However, the growth rate is likely to peak four/five years from now. Most of the top pharmaceutical companies are gearing up for the export market as most of them have been establishing GMP (Good Manufacturing Practice) compliance plants. Some of the top companies have already received UKMHRA Certificate (Square Pharmaceuticals being the first company to do so in 2007) while most of them are awaiting for US FDA approval. Apart from these two major GMP certificate, most of the top companies have already received GMP clearance from a number of countries, including Turkey, Yemen, Kenya, Congo, Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, etc. Once the growth in the domestic market becomes steady, companies are likely to focus heavily in the export market. Earlier, we forecasted domestic market to grow at around 15% annually over the next five years. Top companies can easily achieve more than 15% growth by attaining higher export sales. Going beyond 2016, export is likely to be the major driver behind company’s top line growth. * Fiscal Year (FY) is from July to June; FY 2012 means July 2011 to June 2012 9
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 Chart 6 in the previous page shows the import data for pharmaceutical products and organic chemicals. Over the last eight years, import of pharmaceutical products grew at 12.9% annually while organic chemical grew at 15.8%. Unlike export data, pharmaceutical and chemical imports have been steady over the last four years as the domestic market has been bullish is the same period. Budget Directives for FY2012 The government lowered import duties for the FY2012 to provide support to the pharmaceutical companies. They proposed the following changes to promote further growth of the sector:   Table 8: Tax Holiday Structure Year Rebate Year 1 100% Year 3 50% 25%  Withdrawal of existing 5% import duty and 15% VAT on leucocytes filter used in purification of blood of thalasamia patients  Withdrawal of 20% supplementary duty and reduction of import duty from 25% to 12% on cartridge/membrane filter used for pharmaceuticals industry.  Extended eligibility for tax holiday for both pharmaceutical and API firms. 50% Year 4 Year 5 Lower duty for importing certain capital machineries used in the pharmaceutical industry - for instance a sandwich panel that had a duty of 12% applied on it would now have a 3% duty. 100% Year 2 Lower import duty for certain raw materials, from 12% to 5%. Source: Budget Speech for FY12 Regulatory Assistance The government has given support to the manufacturing industry for decades. It adopted The Drug Act 1940 in 1974, originally adopted by the Indian government in 1940, and later by the Pakistani Government in 1957. The Drug Act gave protection to the local manufacturers by restricting import of pharmaceutical products that are manufactured in the country. It successfully prevented the Indian manufacturers, who could serve the market at competitive price, from entering the country. Going forward there is no regulatory risk that import restriction will be removed and local companies are likely to continue on dominating the pharmaceutical market. The government has planned to set up the API park by 2012 to facilitate API production and lower reliance on API import. In the last budget also, government provided various incentives to lower the import cost of the pharmaceutical manufacturers. In this coming budget for FY 2013, it is expected that the government is going to provide incentive to export - in particular easing up the documentation procedures and removing bottleneck for exporting goods. Performance of Listed Companies Of the six listed companies, only BXPHARMA and IBNSINA reports standalone statements while the other four reports consolidated numbers. For SQURPHARMA and RENATA, the pharmaceutical business generates bulk of the consolidated revenue (80% and 94% respectively for the two companies) while for ACI and GLAXOSMITH the proportion is much lower 10
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 Table 9: Comparison of listed pharmaceuticals companies Market Price Market Cap Profit in 2011 DSE Ticker (BDT) (BDT m) (BDT m) SQURPHARMA BXPHARMA RENATA ACI GLAXOSMITH IBNSINA 268.7 93.9 981.2 247.8 605.2 135.5 71,161.1 3,565.4 23,641.0 1,198.4 27,710.9 1,066.7 4,885.3 238.1 7,290.5 282.1 1,756.1 70.8 MCAP Weighted P/E P/E 20.0x 19.7x 26.0x 20.5x 25.8x 24.8x 21.2x * Market price and market capitalization given as on May 10, 2012 Source: DSE Website and BRAC EPL Research (about 50%). Among the six companies, SQURPHARMA, BXPHARMA and RENATA present investors with prospective investment opportunities. For IBNSINA the market capitalization is very small for investment. The sector P/E ratio (comprising of these six companies only) stands at 21.2x. Because of the market weight of the top two, the P/E ratio is heavily tilted towards Square Pharmaceuticals (20.0x) and Beximco Pharmaceuticals (19.7x). Renata has the highest P/E ratio of 26.0x. 11
    • Pharmaceutical Sector in Bangladesh May 2012 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analyst Certification: Each research analyst and research associate who authored this document and whose name appears herein certifies that the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed therein that are within the coverage universe. Disclaimer: Estimates and projections herein are our own and are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable. Information presented herein, while obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, is not guaranteed either as to accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any security. As it acts for public companies from time to time, BRAC-EPL may have a relationship with the above mentioned company(s). This report is intended for distribution in only those jurisdictions in which BRAC-EPL is registered and any distribution outside those jurisdictions is strictly prohibited. Compensation of Analysts: The compensation of research analysts is intended to reflect the value of the services they provide to the clients of BRAC-EPL. As with most other employees, the compensation of research analysts is impacted by the overall profitability of the firm, which may include revenues from corporate finance activities of the firm's Corporate Finance department. However, Research analysts' compensation is not directly related to specific corporate finance transaction. General Risk Factors: BRAC-EPL will conduct a comprehensive risk assessment for each company under coverage at the time of initiating research coverage and also revisit this assessment when subsequent update reports are published or material company events occur. Following are some general risks that can impact future operational and financial performance: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing could change expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares or new product expectations could change investor attitudes; (3) Unforeseen developments with respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies alter the prospective valuation; or (4) Interest rates, currency or major segments of the economy could alter investor confidence and investment prospects. BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage Capital Markets Group Ali Imam Head of Research imam@bracepl.com 01730 357 153 Khandakar Safwan Saad Research Associate safwan@bracepl.com 01730 357 779 Farjad Siddiqui Research Associate farjad.siddiqui@bracepl.com 01730 727 924 Kallol Biswas Research Associate kallol.biswas@bracepl.com 01730 727 930 Nafees Mohammed Badruddin Research Associate nafees.badruddin@bracepl.com 01730 727 931 Head of Strategic Sales sajid.huq@bracepl.com Strategic Sales Sajid Huq Amit 01755 541 254 Institutional Sales and Trading Delwar Hussain (Del) Head of International Trade del.hussain@bracepl.com & Sales 01755 541 252 BRAC EPL Research www.bracepl.com 121/B Gulshan Avenue Gulshan-2, Dhaka Phone: +880 2 881 9421-5 Fax: +880 2 881 9426 E-Mail: research@bracepl.com 12