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The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
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The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”

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A presentation about the Human Population Challenge developed for students in sustainability, including current data, basic demographic concepts, and a discussion of sustainability related issues. …

A presentation about the Human Population Challenge developed for students in sustainability, including current data, basic demographic concepts, and a discussion of sustainability related issues.
The presentation "Growth in a Finite World" is closely related and precedes this lecture. The presentation "Energy Sustainability" is also suitable as a follow-up lecture.

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  • 1. The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis”
  • 2. The Human Population Challenge: From “Population Bomb” to “Demographic Crisis” Lecture Series in Quantitative Sustainability by Toni Menninger MSc http://www.slideshare.net/amenning/ toni.menninger@gmail.com
  • 3. Sept 2011 Global and US population Population clock: http://www.census.gov/popclock/
  • 4. Sept 2012 Global and US population
  • 5. Jan 2014 Global and US population Population clock: http://www.census.gov/popclock/
  • 6. US Population • 315,218,420 January 29, 2013 • 317,444,010 January 29, 2014 • In one year 2,225,590 increase • 0.7% annual growth rate Decennial Census: http://2010.census.gov/
  • 7. The Human Population Challenge Global Population 2012: 7 billion Growth rate is currently 1.1% Doubling time = 70 / growth rate = 64 years Annual increase about 77 million per year • US Census International Programs • UN Population Division • National Geographic Magazine: The World at seven billion
  • 8. The Human Population Challenge Global population since AD 1000 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 0 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Exponential growth?
  • 9. Global population since AD 1000 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Global population percent growth rates, AD 1000 to present 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
  • 10. Global population percent growth rates, AD 1000 to present 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 • Population growth has been 0.1% or less for most of human history • Sharp increase after 1750 (Industrial Revolution) and especially after WWII (Green Revolution) • Growth rates of past century are historical anomaly
  • 11. Population growth rates worldwide China United Nations population growth rate estimates for the period 2005–2010 (wikipedia)
  • 12. World Population Cartogram World Population Atlas: Country areas scaled to population size
  • 13. The Human Population Challenge: Demographic terms and concepts China, India and USA are the world’s most populous countries. In 2010, they each completed a decennial population census. The table shows the census results since 1990, in million: Census year 1990 China India USA 1,134 847 249 2000 1,266 1,029 281 2010 1,340 1,210 309 Group work (2-3 students)
  • 14. The Human Population Challenge: Demographic terms and concepts China, India and USA are the world’s most populous countries. In 2010, they each completed a decennial population census. The table shows the census results since 1990, in million: Census year 1990 2000 2010 China 1,134 1,266 1,340 India 847 1,029 1,210 USA 249 281 309 World 5,263 6,070 6,972 China India USA Sum China India USA Complete the table: Population change 1990-2000 2000-2010 Fractional change in % 1990-2000 2000-2010 Approx. what percentage of global population do these 3 countries account for? Approx. what percentage of global population increase do they account for? What can you conclude about population growth in the 2000s compared to the 1990s: increased - stayed the same - decreased?
  • 15. Demographic terms and concepts China, India and USA are the world’s most populous countries. Last year, they each completed a decennial population census. The table shows the census results since 1990, in million: Census year 1990 2000 2010 Population change 1990-2000 2000-2010 Fractional change in % 1990-2000 2000-2010 China 1,134 1,266 1,340 India 847 1,029 1,210 USA 249 281 309 World 5,263 6,070 6,972 China 132 74 China 11.6 % 5.8 % India 182 181 India 21.5 % 17.6 % USA 32 28 USA 12.9 % 10.0 % Sum 346 283 Approx. what percentage of global population do these 3 countries account for? 41% Approx. what percentage of global population increase do they account for? 37% What can you conclude about population growth in the 2000s compared to the 1990s? Fractional growth rate declined in all countries Absolute rate of increase declined dramatically in China, less so in USA, and reached a plateau in India Note: growth rates in table are per decade. To annualize percent rates, use logarithmic formula. E. g. ln(1.215)/10=1.9% for India during 1990s.
  • 16. Demographic terms and concepts The Demographic Transition What causes birth rates to fall?
  • 17. Demographic terms and concepts The Demographic Transition
  • 18. The Demographic Transition China Iceland Mexico USA Births per woman since 1960
  • 19. The Demographic Transition Total Fertility Rate (TFR): average number of children per woman Replacement-level fertility: an average fertility of slightly more than 2 children per woman
  • 20. Demographic terms and concepts Components of annual population change in the USA Growth rate = birth rate – death rate + net migration Natural increase = growth rate – death rate
  • 21. Demographic terms and concepts World population growth rate: • World Birth rate 2013: • World Death rate 2011: 18.9/1,000 per year 7.9/1,000 per year How to calculate growth rate?
  • 22. Demographic terms and concepts World population growth rate: • World Birth rate 2013: • World Death rate 2011: 18.9/1,000 per year 7.9/1,000 per year How to calculate growth rate? Birth rate – death rate = (18.9-7.9)/1000 = 11/1000 = 1.1% (per year)
  • 23. Demographic terms and concepts Why are death rates higher in developed countries?
  • 24. Demographic terms and concepts Why are death rates higher in developed countries? => Age structure
  • 25. Demographic terms and concepts Age structure histograms Expansive vs. constrictive age structure Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: the 2002 Revision (2003), found at http://www.flatrock.org.nz/topics/money_politics_law/boom_moves_along.htm
  • 26. Demographic terms and concepts Age structure histograms: expansive A rapidly growing population has a large proportion of prereproductive and reproductive individuals and relatively few older people. Example: West Africa Almost one third (1.8 billion) of the world’s population is under 15 years; in Africa, 42% are under 15 years.
  • 27. Age structure histograms Mexico Canada Sweden
  • 28. Demographic terms and concepts WWII Age structure histograms Mexico: highly expansive, rapidly growing US: somewhat expansive Germany: constrictive, starts shrinking
  • 29. Demographic terms and concepts Age structure histograms: expansive histogram 2009 World population 100 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 Fem ale Population 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 200000000 400000000 A rapidly growing population has a large proportion of pre-reproductive and reproductive individuals and relatively few older people. Almost one third (1.8 billion) of the world’s population is under 15 years; in Africa, 42% are under 15 years.
  • 30. Demographic terms and concepts Age structure histograms: constrictive A stationary or shrinking population has a small proportion of children and a relatively large proportion of older people.
  • 31. Age structure histograms: expansive to constrictive 84 million 128 million 97 million (projection) Japan's demographic transition http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c0117.htm#c02
  • 32. A global demographic transition? World population histogram 2009 100 95-99 Fem ale Population 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 100000000 200000000 300000000 400000000 World population histogram 2050 (projected) 100 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Fem ale Population 0 100000000 200000000 300000000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base (IDB) 400000000
  • 33. A global demographic transition? World population histogram 2009 100 Total Fertility Rate (TFR): average number of children per woman 95-99 Fem ale Population 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 Replacement-level fertility: an average fertility of slightly more than 2 children per woman 55-59 50-54 45-49 Population stabilization requires a reduction in TFR to 2.1. This will in the medium run eliminate population growth. 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 100000000 200000000 300000000 400000000 However, in the short term population will continue to grow because of population inertia (e. g. China). Many fertile females.
  • 34. Factors favoring population growth • Children are needed in agriculture • Children are needed to support ageing parents • Many children can be a symbol of high status • Demographic transition not yet completed in LDC → Sustainable economic development will, in the opinion of many experts, induce the completion of the demographic transition via social change and economic improvement
  • 35. Factors favoring population growth • Contraceptives not available/too expensive • Family planning not considered due to cultural/religious reasons • Unequal social and economic status of women • Education, employment opportunities for women lacking/denied • Lack of reproductive rights → Development experts, organizations and (some) governments promote the empowerment of women as a means to stabilize population   International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Cairo, 1994 Fourth World Conference on Women, Beijing 1995
  • 36. The Human Population Challenge – so what? • Sustainability requires stabilization of both population and (per capita) consumption • Zero population growth will eventually happen – hopefully by benign means rather than through disease, war and famine.
  • 37. The Human Population Challenge – so what? • There is no scientific agreement on what the limit of earth's carrying capacity might be – estimates range from 0.5 to 50 billion. • The closer we get to the limit, the more difficult it will be to achieve sustainability and decent living standards.
  • 38. The Human Population Challenge – social implications of rapid growth At the local and regional level, especially in poor countries, rapid population growth creates or exacerbates social, economic and environmental problems and destabilizes communities (e. g. Congo, Haiti, Pakistan). Social institutions and vital infrastructure such as school and health care systems are overwhelmed, jobs for young adults are lacking, adequate housing is lacking, natural resources are overexploited.
  • 39. Population growth highest in poor countries
  • 40. The Human Population Challenge – beware of oversimplification • It is simplistic to blame population growth as the root of global environmental problems, as some environmentalists have done (e. g. Paul Ehrlich, “The Population Bomb”, 1968). Example for Malthusianism • Equating hunger with overpopulation is also simplistic. Hunger is in most cases caused by poverty and economic inequality, not lack of food supply.
  • 41. The Human Population Challenge – a complex issue • Resource overuse, climate change and other global environmental crises are overwhelmingly caused by an affluent minority. There is extreme global inequality. • However, raising the living conditions of the world's poorest implies an increased environmental footprint for billions. The greater the numbers, the more difficult it will be to balance development and sustainability. • E. g. China: per capita CO2 emissions one fourth that of U.S., total emissions now equal to U.S.
  • 42. The Human Population Challenge – over-population or over-consumption? It is simplistic to blame population growth as the root of global environmental problems. Reading assignment George Monbiot 2009: "around one sixth of the world’s population is so poor that it produces no significant [greenhouse gas] emissions at all. This is also the group whose growth rate is likely to be highest.“ • I=PAT: Total environmental impact equals population times affluence times technology • I=CAT: Impact = consumers times affluence times technology
  • 43. The Human Population Challenge – a complex issue What is "overpopulation"? → Term is often used unscientifically. There are no generally accepted criteria. Population density • Many advanced countries (esp. Western Europe and Japan) have high population density. • Many poor countries have low population density, with notable exceptions (e. g. Bangladesh, Haiti). Again, high population density can exacerbate social and environmental problems in an underdeveloped, rapidly growing country - but it is rarely the direct cause of such problems (exception: small islands).
  • 44. The Human Population Challenge Japan over 1000 people per square km Population density (people per km²) by country, 2006 (wikipedia)
  • 45. The Human Population Challenge
  • 46. The Human Population Challenge – a demographic crisis? While some environmentalists warn of “overpopulation”, there is an opposite viewpoint – frequently present in the media - that European and Asian countries with low birthrates are facing a “demographic crunch”. These dire predictions usually refer to countries like Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea but there have even been warnings of a “looming demographic crisis” (Washington Post, February 28, 2010) or an “underpopulation crisis” (Slate, March 7, 2006) threatening China, the world's most populous nation.
  • 47. The Human Population Challenge – a demographic crisis? Japan > 1000 people per square km → Western Europe and East Asia are already densely populated. Demographic stabilization in these regions should be welcomed.
  • 48. The Human Population Challenge – a demographic crisis? A typical example of the “demographic crisis” argument: “The building blocks of Japan's future are collapsing, in the view of many economists. Japan has fewer children and more senior citizens as a percentage of its population than any country in recorded history, but the government does little to encourage childbirth or enable immigration.” Washington Post, February 3, 2010
  • 49. The Human Population Challenge – a demographic crisis? • Japan is the 10th most populous nation (127 million people). • It has a population density 10 times higher than the United States (873 per square mile). • Japan's workforce is highly educated and highly productive. • An increase in the share of senior citizens is an unavoidable consequence of the demographic transition (unless life expectancy declines). The alternative would be to continue growing indefinitely, which is impossible.
  • 50. A demographic crisis due to aging population? • More retirees need to be supported through the intergenerational contract. • Fewer children → in general more resources are available for each child • The working age share of Japan's population is now greater than it was 60 years ago, despite aging. • In 40 years, one economically active person might have to support one additional person on average (current ratio 2:1). Increased productivity, full employment and possibly a higher retirement age will likely compensate for the increased burden. • The main challenge is arguably on the level of social values rather than material resources.
  • 51. “Demographic crisis”: is Japan facing a labor shortage? The economic problem of every society is to provide (i. e. produce and distribute) the goods and services required by that society. In every society, there are members that are economically productive and those that are not (because they are too young, too old, sick, unemployed, etc.) The term Demographic crisis expresses concern that ageing populations with low birthrates see their share of retirees increase and the share of economically productive members decline. So the burden of providing for society's economic needs placed on the economically active population becomes heavier and heavier. Is the demographic crisis concern valid? The potential economic product of a society roughly speaking depends on three factors: age structure, labor force participation rate, and labor productivity. The cohorts between the ages of 15 and 65 are generally considered the economically active population from which the work force is recruited. The work force (labor force) participation rate is the percentage of the economically active population that is actually engaged in economic activity (by some definition). Labor productivity is the average economic product per worker ("worker" here includes anybody engaging in productive economic activity). In the example of Japan, the economically active population share has actually increased between 1950 and present despite ageing. Labor force participation rate has generally increased since WWII in industrial societies due to increased participation of women. Labor productivity has increased exponentially since WWII. It is projected that Japan's economically active population share will somewhat decrease over the next decades. It doesn't follow that there will be a labor shortage. Increased productivity and/or an increase in the labor force participation rate can easily compensate for the demographic change. Increasing demand for labor will lead to increased wages which will lure people into the workforce who might otherwise choose not to work. Some workers will choose to retire later if they feel well compensated and well respected. Most societies today are suffering from high unemployment and a surplus of labor. There is no evidence that Japan or any other country is facing a looming labor shortage.
  • 52. The Human Population Challenge – a demographic crisis? "For three years running, South Korea has had the world's lowest birthrate... The nohusband, no-baby trend has become a demographic epidemic in East Asia... Collapsing birthrates are alarming East Asian governments, which in coming years will face a demographic crunch as the proportion of pensioners rises and the number of workingage adults declines." Washington Post, March 1, 2010
  • 53. The Human Population Challenge – popular demographic misconceptions “Demographic crunch” in South Korea? → South Korea – population 48 million - has 15 times the population density of the USA. Economist Dean Baker (CEPR) comments: “In standard economic theory, a smaller labor force will lead to a higher capital to labor ratio, which will increase productivity. If productivity is higher, workers can both enjoy higher living standards and be able to support a larger population of retirees.”
  • 54. The Human Population Challenge – popular demographic misconceptions "Germany also faces a demographic challenge, managing a population that is not only graying but shrinking. Last month the government announced that the population dropped below 82 million for the first time since 1995. That means fewer people trying to pay off a growing national debt, with a projected budget deficit of $118 billion this year." New York Times, February 11, 2010 → Statement is a non sequitur: the capacity to pay back the national debt has nothing to do with population growth, unless the economy is understood as sort of a “Ponzi scheme”.
  • 55. The Human Population Challenge – popular demographic misconceptions "We are living in an age of reversegenerativity. Far from serving the young, the old are now taking from them. First, they are taking money. ... the federal government now spends $7 on the elderly for each $1 it spends on children." David Brooks: The Geezers’ Crusade, New York Times, February 1, 2010 Class discussion
  • 56. Generational contract or Generational warfare? http://reason.com/archives/2012/07/23/generational-warfare
  • 57. The Human Population Challenge – popular demographic misconceptions "the federal government now spends $7 on the elderly for each $1 it spends on children." David Brooks, NYT → The federal government doesn't fund schools. Most public spending targeted at children is at the state and local level. → Social Security is funded by a dedicated payroll tax. Retirees have contributed to the fund throughout their working lives. It is inaccurate to imply that this money is somehow taken away from children. → Old age provision systems such as Social Security are based on the inter-generational contract. Modern society arguably cannot function without, or retirees would have to rely on family support (which would favor large families).
  • 58. The Human Population Challenge – popular demographic misconceptions "400 Million People Can’t Be Wrong" With a fertility rate 50 percent higher than Russia, Germany, or Japan, and well above that of China, Italy, Singapore, South Korea, and virtually all of Eastern Europe, the United States has become an outlier among its traditional competitors, all of whose populations are stagnant and seem destined to eventually decline. With the mobilization of our entrepreneurs and supportive government policies, the United States should be able to exploit its vibrant demography to assure its preeminence over the next four decades. Joel Kotkin, Newsweek, April 16, 2010
  • 59. “The United States has become an outlier among its traditional competitors”
  • 60. The Human Population Challenge – popular demographic misconceptions "400 Million People Can’t Be Wrong“? “Mercantilists [the school of thought that dominated Europe from the 16th through the 18th century] and the absolute rulers who dominated many states of Europe saw each nation’s population as a form of national wealth: the larger the population, the richer the nation. Large populations provided a larger labor supply, larger markets, and larger (and hence more powerful) armies for defense and for foreign expansion. Moreover, since growth in the number of wage earners tended to depress wages, the wealth of the monarch could be increased by capturing this surplus. In the words of Frederick II the Great of Prussia, “the number of the people makes the wealth of states.” Similar views were held by mercantilists in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. For the mercantilists, accelerating the growth of the population by encouraging fertility and discouraging emigration was consistent with increasing the power of the nation or the king. Most mercantilists, confident that any number of people would be able to produce their own subsistence, had no worries about harmful effects of population growth. (To this day similar optimism continues to be expressed by diverse schools of thought, from traditional Marxists on the left to “cornucopians” on the right.)” Encyclopedia Britannica
  • 61. Cornucopianism versus Malthusianism A cornucopian is a futurist who believes that continued progress and provision of material items for mankind can be met by similarly continued advances in technology. Fundamentally they believe that there is enough matter and energy on the Earth to provide for the ever-rising population of the world. Looking further into the future they posit that the abundance of matter and energy in space would appear to give humanity almost unlimited room for growth. The term comes from the cornucopia, the "horn of plenty" of Greek mythology, which magically supplied its owners with endless food and drink. The cornucopians are sometimes known as "Boomsters", and their philosophic opponents—Malthus and his school—are called "Doomsters" or "Doomers."
  • 62. The Human Population Challenge – popular demographic misconceptions "400 Million People Can’t Be Wrong“? • The idea of strength through numbers, and of a “war of the cradles” between competing nations, was popular among 18th century mercantilists. • Is such a view still appropriate in the 21st century? • Is there really a connection between birth rates and the competitiveness of a modern industrial society in a globalized economy?
  • 63. Summary: The Human Population Challenge: Demographic terms and concepts • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • World population as of 2013: 7.1 billion Birth rate, death rate (mortality), natural change, net migration, growth rate Population Growth rate = Birth rate - death rate + net migration World Birth rate 2013: 18.9/1,000 per year World Death rate 2011: 7.9/1,000 per year World population growth rate: (18.9-7.9)/1000 = 1.1% per year Age structure diagram (“population pyramid”) Cohorts Expanding (expansive) – stationary – contracting (constrictive) Total Fertility, Replacement Fertility Maternal age, birth spacing Population Inertia Life expectancy, infant mortality, child mortality Demographic transition Economically active population, labor force, labor force participation rate Generational contract, Social security Carrying capacity Malthusianism, Cornucopianism Zero Population Growth I=PAT, I=CAT

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