Mc afee econ data

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  • The above comment came across as far more accusatory than I intended it to. I meant the comment to be more of a 'here is an area that gave me pause', and it came out as a 'for shaaame'. My apologies, please take it in the spirit in which it was intended.
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  • Thanks for posting this Andrew, I'm looking forward to reading your book (just purchased it).

    I have problems with two of your slides... places where it feels like you've adjusted things to present a dramatic picture at the expense of an accurate picture:
    On both Slide 3 and Slide 6 you don't start the right hand scale at zero. This has the effect of making it look like the employment-Population Ratio has cratered (slide 3), and the Labor Share of GDP has taken a nose dive (slide 6).
    Looking at the Wikipedia page for 'Misleading Graph' (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misleading_graph#Truncated_graph ), the section titled 'Truncated Graph' illustrates how it can be quite misleading if you use a scale that does not start at zero...

    I'm sure you weren't intending to deceive, but it ends up feeling that way, and made me question the integrity of the other slides.

    With all that said, I'm still eager to read your book, and will be taking it with me on vacation next week.
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Mc afee econ data

  1. 1. A Bunch of Data about the US Economy and Workforce Andrew McAfee, MIT amcafee@mit.edu @amcafee 1
  2. 2. Trends Trends in US GDP, Profits, and Investment 1995-2013 Level of GDP, Profits, and Investment (Jan-95 = 100) 400 GDP Corporate Investment: Equipment and Software 350 All Profits After Tax 300 Non-Financial Profits After Tax 250 200 150 100 50 0 1995 1997 © Andrew McAfee, 2014 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: research.stlouisfed.org
  3. 3. Trends Trends in US GDP, Profits, Investment, and Employment, 1995-2013 GDP 78 Corporate Investment: Equipment and Software 350 All Profits After Tax 300 Non-Financial Profits After Tax 73 Employment to Population Ratio 250 200 68 150 100 63 Employment-Population Ratio Level of GDP, Profits, and Investment (Jan-95 = 100) 400 50 0 58 1995 1997 © Andrew McAfee, 2014 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: research.stlouisfed.org
  4. 4. Duration of Unemployment Median & Mean Duration of Unemployment, 1948-2013 45 40 Mean 35 # of Weeks 30 25 20 Median 15 10 5 0 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 © Andrew McAfee, 2014 Source: research.stlouisfed.org
  5. 5. Job Creation US Job Growth by Decade, 1940s-2000s Percentage Change in Non-Farm Payroll Employment 45% 40% 1940s, 37.7% 35% 1960s, 31.3% 30% 25% 1970s, 27.4% 1950s, 24.5% 20% 1980s, 20.2% 1990s, 19.8% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000s, -1.0% -5% 1 © Andrew McAfee, 2014 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year in Decade Source: research.stlouisfed.org
  6. 6. Profit vs Labor Corporate Profits After Tax as % of GDP & Non-Farm Labor Share, 1947-2013 120 Corporate Profit as % of GDP 117 114 8 111 6 108 105 4 Labor Share (2009 = 100) Corproate Profits as % of GDP 10 102 2 99 Labor Share of GDP 0 1947 © Andrew McAfee, 2014 96 1958 1969 1980 1991 2002 2013 Source: research.stlouisfed.org
  7. 7. Skill Disparities Changes in Wages for Full-Time, Full-Year Male U.S. Workers, 1963-2008 Graduate School Composition-Adjusted Real Log Weekly Wages 0.6 0.5 0.4 College Graduate 0.3 0.2 Some College 0.1 High School Graduate 0.0 -0.1 1963 1968 © Andrew McAfee, 2014 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 High School Dropout 2008 Source: Acemoglu and Autor, 2010 http://economics.mit.edu/files/7006
  8. 8. Superstar Earners U.S. Top 0.01% Income Share, 1913-2012 7.0% 6.0% Income Share 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1913 1922 © Andrew McAfee, 2014 1931 1940 1949 1958 1967 1976 1985 1994 2003 2012 Source: Saez, 2013: http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2012.pdf
  9. 9. The Great Decoupling US Productivity, Real GDP per capita, Employment and Income: 19472012 400 1947=100 300 200 Labor Productivity 100 Private Employment Median Family Income Real GDP per Capita US 0 1950 © Andrew McAfee, 2014 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 Source: research.stlouisfed.org

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