1. Are we reaching “peak facebook”?
Or how to apply the “peak oil” theory to social networks.
2. Peak Oil Theory
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells.
3. suicidal growth (grandmoms)
By late 2013 FB will begin to colapse.
unhealthy growth (moms)
healthy growth (sub 25)
The 5 Social NetworksComandments:
Thou shall not be in more than one major Social network at the same time (facebook and hi5 and keep both updated).
No matter how many feeds and automatisms, one will allways have a SN that is consired home.
Trend setters will allways define where people are - and trend setters are allways sub25 or circa that age.
At some point (after 4-5 years from starting sizeable growth) social networks stop being cool due to i) internal demographics, ii) cooler competition (facebook vs hi5).
Skype is different because it’s not a social network, and will continue to grow almost linearly due to pure network externalities but will never become a major service like phone.
4. Scenario #1 - death of facebook due to: “cooler competition”
Facebook is the first true SN with global reach – the only countries where it does not lead are China (QQ), Pakistan(...) and Brazil (Orkut).
Facebook proved that national flauvored SNs, even when bundled with a wealth of local content could not face better UX, and growth dynamics (e.g. Poland, Brazil, Portugal, only went “blue” in 2010).
The next FB must also have global reach... And will not develop on a national agenda (think of Vietnam).
5. Scenario #1 - death of facebook due to: “cooler competition” (Portuguese case)
facebook.com (3M) user base:
Older (and older)
Hi5.com (2M) user base:
6. Scenario #1 - death of facebook due to: “cooler competition” (Portuguese hi5.com case)
“chungas” from hi5.com will degrade facebook
At the end of 2008, hi5.com peaked with around 2M users from Portugal.
People started abondoning hi5 because of FB growth.
At the end of 2010, Facebook has around 3M users from Portugal.
By the end 2011, hi5.com should be defunct.
7. Scenario #1 - death of facebook due to: “cooler competition” (Portuguese hi5.com case)
2005-2006: early adopters - trend setters (20-25 year old range) responsible for hi5.com popularity
2006-2008: growth years – the demographics of the hi5.com went down to the 10-24 year old range.
2008-2010: declining years - hi5.com stopped being cool to the older demographics, and as they stopped using hi5.com, as FB came as substitute.
8. Facebook Mobile – Feature Set
Facebook will increasingly move into the realm of the communication tools (VoIP, Video, IM, SMS, etc);
The facebook is the computer paradigm will probably be more like “the facebook is the mobile”.
Growth dynamics of communication tools like Skype, or MSN Messenger are different from SNs;