An Amárach Research Presentation
October 2009
The New Normal
© Amárach Research1

1. Reality Check
how was it for you?
2. Psychological Recovery
hearts, heads, purses
3. The New Normal
no going back
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1. Reality Check
how was it for you?
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News from the Front
Online survey of SII Members
September 2009
Current experiences in Ireland
& future expectations
173 response –
all sizes and sectors
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Are We There Yet?
Current Perceptions of the Irish Market
52%
27%
19%
2%
Bad and getting Bad but stabilising Bad but showing Over the worst
worse signs of and improving
improvement strongly
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Feeling the Pain
Sales Outlook: 2009 and 2010
80%
44%
34%
22%
9% 11%
Higher than previous Same as previous year Lower than previous
year year
2009 Sales 2010 Sales
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Sales Drivers
What Sales Approach is Currently Successful?
30% 29%
20%
10%
8%
3%
Lower Better New Volume Advertising Other (e.g.:
Prices Value, Same Products Discounts & Promotion trade shows
Prices etc)
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Planning Hopefully
When Will The Worst Be Over In Irish Market?
34%
32%
7% 7%
3%
Already over By the end of By the middle By the end of Don't know
the worst this year of 2010 2010
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Recessions and Recoveries have one
thing in common: they are usually well
under way before they show up in the
official statistics ...
Recessions are macroeconomic
phenomena in the main ...
whereas Recoveries are
microeconomic phenomena.
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2. Psychological Recovery
hearts, heads, purses
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2. Reality Check:
hearts & wallets
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Confident Outlook
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The New Normal Source: CSO, ESRI, Amárach calculations 13

What Goes Around
We are ... ?
-
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The Economic Recovery Index
April 0% September 0%
April 1% September 1%
April 77% September 50%
50%
April 8% September 21%
21%
April 14%
14% September 28%
28%
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Marginal Propensities
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Debt and negative equity will curtail any
urge to splurge for many consumers for
the foreseeable future ...
... but as the fear of unemployment
abates, consumers will loosen their
purse strings, wallets and savings
accounts: beginning in H1 2010 and
becoming ‘official’ in H2 2010.
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3. The New Normal
no going back
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On the web nobody can hear you switch
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Everyone Has Their Price
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Customer Disloyalty
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Customer Disloyalty II
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Generational Shift
After: The Role of Demographics in Precipitating Crises in Financial Institutions, Diane Macunovich, September 2009
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The Boom of Youth
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The 2016 Generation
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70%
60%
50%
40%
Yesterday, did you experience?
30%
20%
Enjoyment
10%
Happiness
0%
April May June July August September
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2010 looks like being ‘less
worse’ than 2009 (and will
get and feel a lot better as
the year progresses).
Make Customer Loyalty your
number one priority to avoid
‘revenge switching’ when
confidence improves.
Watch out for demography:
we’re all getting older and so
are your customers.
Be Happy – it’s both popular
and contagious!
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Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
E: gerard.oneill@amarach.com
gerard.oneill@
The New Normal B: www.turbulenceahead.com
www.turbulenceahead.com 28

Appendix: About Amárach
We are Ireland’s largest independent market
research agency, in business since 1989.
We focus on delivering two key benefits to our 3rd March 2009
Welcome to the latest edition of consumerforesight from Amárach Research. We
clients: have set out to make consumerforesight a more interactive and informative
research and planning tool for subscribers. Feel free to invite others to register
for our free eLetter on our home page.
1. Consumer Foresight
– using market research to say ‘what next’. Two months gone, ten to go. Like Keith Richards, we’re all at the
stage of “it’s good to be here – it’s good to be anywhere”. But it
is tough out there. Against a background of industrial unrest
(even the Gardaí are protesting!), we shouldn’t be surprised if
2. Business Insight consumers are on something of a ‘go slow’ themselves.
– using research to make business decisions. But it won’t last. It’s too early for green shoots, but as time goes
by people will want to buy: especially those still in secure jobs
who are faced with extraordinary bargains in shops, hotels and
car showrooms. Irish consumers don’t really do hair shirts.
When we have money we can afford to spend then we’re usually
We provide the full array of market research inclined to spend it: assuming we’re getting good value and not
being ripped off.
services including: Don’t forget: for every person in Ireland with a mortgage,
loan or ‘maxed out’ credit card there is another person
without any debt (at all). W hat are you doing to tap the
‘worried well’ market?
- Quantitative: face-to-face, telephone, web
- Qualitative: focus groups, in-depths, ethnographic
- Field Only: for international & domestic agencies
Before you embark on a new brand or Business is about passion: so for that matter is
business just remember Seth Godin’s the economy – check out some wise words on the
three things you need read more role of passion in success read more
With the world all ‘a-twitter’ don’t forget How not to do food marketing: quite possibly the
the future is on the TV read more worst food in the world read more
Register for our free fortnightly eletter It’s all down to psychology – an Amárach
presentation on how Irish consumers will
lead us to recovery read more
Optimistic people are healthy and happy – even
when the economy is collapsing around them:
what are you doing for optimism? read more
consumerforesight at: www.amarach.com
Read our regular blog: Amárach Research will present a paper on ‘Life Online 2009’ at Comreg’s ICT Research conference on 12th
www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com
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Image Credit
http://www.breathecast.com/Christian.Music.Artist-Phil.Joel/AlbumView-870_2597.htm
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