Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2013
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Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2013

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Our lastest report on the financial mood of the nation. We are seeing the highest level of optimism about the economy's prospects since we began tracking in April 2009. ...

Our lastest report on the financial mood of the nation. We are seeing the highest level of optimism about the economy's prospects since we began tracking in April 2009.

We also look at the willingness of banking, supermarket and electricity customers to spend - and the role of price in their purchases.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2013 Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2013 Presentation Transcript

  • Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October 2013 (including analysis by main bank; supermarket; electricity provider) © Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index 1
  • Green Leaves October was a turning point in the mood of the nation – our Economic Recovery Index rose to its highest level since we began tracking in April 2009. So ‘green shoots’ for the recovery at last? Not quite yet – it’s more a case of ‘green leaves’, i.e.: recovery appears to be happening ‘above’ in terms of the wider economy, but here ‘on the ground’ it’s less clear cut. Still, our survey took place in the weeks after Budget 2013, and there certainly appear to be no negative consequences for consumer optimism generally about the near term outlook for Ireland’s economy. That said, some of the negative emotions we have been tracking every month (e.g.: stress/worry) have been trending up, in turn affecting consumer behaviour. So this month’s report shows that consumers remain cautious – and price conscious – and marketers still have their work cut out turning macro-optimism into real spending growth at the micro-level. Economic Recovery Index 2
  • The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out four years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to October 2013. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 21st to 30th October 2013 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – if you want us to conduct additional analyses (by brands etc) then feel free to get in touch. Economic Recovery Index 3
  • The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index rose to 27.4 in October 2013, its highest level ever since we began tracking the mood of the nation in April 2009: 30 25 20 15 10 Oct Sept July Aug June Apr May Mar Feb Dec Jan'13 Oct Nov Sept July Aug June Apr May Mar Feb Dec Jan '12 Oct Nov Sept July Aug May June Apr Mar Feb Dec Jan'11 Oct Nov Aug Sept July June Apr May Mar Feb Dec Jan'10 Oct Nov Aug Sept Jun July 0 Apr '09 5 Source: Amárach Research, October 2013 Economic Recovery Index 4
  • A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The percentage thinking things are getting worse is back to the levels seen three years ago: Sept ’13: 0% Sept ’13: 4% Sept ’13: 35% Sept ’13: 30% Oct ’13: 32% Sept ’13: 31% Economic Recovery Index Oct ’13: 0% Oct ’13: 4% Oct ’13: 32% Oct ’13: 32% 5
  • ERI Summary Tables I Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Sep-13 Oct-13 The economic The economic The economic The economic The economic situation is situation is bad situation is Economic situation in situation is bad getting better but showing a good and Recovery Ireland is but has and showing few signs of almost fully Index getting worse stabilized clear signs of improvement recovered improvement 47 30 22 1 0 19.6 56 23 18 2 1 16.3 42 31 25 2 0 22.0 48 28 21 3 0 19.8 35 31 30 4 0 25.7 32 32 32 4 0 27.4 Economic Recovery Index 6
  • ERI Summary Tables II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Sep-13 Oct-13 Economic Recovery Index 48 26 26 26 28 30 I feel I am financially I am optimistic comfortable in spite of the enough to current make it economic through the situation recession 46 41 38 38 38 36 55 44 49 48 45 44 Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me 56 52 45 44 46 43 7
  • ERI Summary Tables III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Sep-13 Oct-13 I am more I am saving a My main I would be relaxed about lot more than financial priority happy to spending before is to pay off my borrow money money than I because of the debts as quickly from a bank if I was a few recession as possible need to months ago 16 32 61 33 15 25 59 27 14 22 54 23 16 25 56 25 19 26 57 25 18 24 57 24 Economic Recovery Index 8
  • Spendthrift I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” October 2013 Weighted Sample TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1002 495 507 169 223 187 157 265 279 478 524 Strongly Agree 4% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 3% 5% 3% Slightly Agree 15% 17% 13% 17% 19% 13% 13% 12% 17% 17% 13% Neither/Nor 17% 21% 14% 16% 21% 16% 14% 18% 21% 19% 16% Slightly Disagree 25% 22% 28% 26% 23% 26% 27% 24% 24% 26% 24% Strongly Disagree 38% 34% 42% 34% 33% 40% 43% 40% 35% 32% 43% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, October 2013 9
  • Spendthrift II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/electricity): “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” October 2013 Bord Gais Airtricity 511 161 259 3% 4% 4% 2% 17% 16% 15% 15% 16% 21% 21% 12% 18% 18% 16% 28% 23% 22% 25% 26% 28% 23% 34% 38% 39% 42% 36% 35% 42% AIB BoI 1002 354 275 182 338 152 87 212 Strongly Agree 4% 3% 3% 6% 5% 3% 1% Slightly Agree 15% 15% 16% 11% 14% 14% Neither/Nor 17% 19% 17% 14% 17% Slightly Disagree 25% 29% 25% 22% Strongly Disagree 38% 33% 38% 45% Weighted Sample Economic Recovery Index PTSB Tesco Dunnes Super Electric Aldi Valu Ireland TOTAL Source: Amárach Research, October 2013 10
  • Price Wars I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I always buy the lowest price products or services” October 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 157 265 279 478 524 Strongly Agree 28% 26% 30% 33% 26% 33% 31% 22% 23% 25% 31% Slightly Agree 30% 30% 29% 31% 28% 30% 30% 29% 29% 30% 29% Neither/Nor 19% 21% 16% 16% 20% 18% 16% 20% 23% 20% 17% Slightly Disagree 15% 14% 16% 11% 14% 11% 15% 20% 17% 18% 12% Strongly Disagree 5% 5% 4% 1% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, October 2013 11
  • Price Wars II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/electricity): “I always buy the lowest price products or services” October 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Super Valu Aldi Electric Ireland Bord Airtricity Gais Weighted Sample 1002 354 275 182 338 152 87 212 511 161 259 Strongly Agree 28% 28% 25% 29% 27% 21% 16% 37% 28% 27% 28% Slightly Agree 30% 27% 30% 31% 29% 33% 30% 31% 29% 34% 28% Neither/Nor 19% 24% 16% 16% 18% 19% 27% 17% 20% 14% 18% Slightly Disagree 15% 14% 19% 14% 17% 15% 19% 7% 14% 17% 17% Strongly Disagree 5% 3% 6% 5% 5% 7% 8% 4% 4% 5% 5% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, October 2013 12
  • The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2013 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 0% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 10% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, October 2013 13
  • The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2013 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 0% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 5% Source: Amárach Research, October 2013 Economic Recovery Index 14
  • Emotions Summary Table Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: % Enjoyment Happiness Oct-09 61 54 41 34 24 17 19 13 Oct-10 51 49 49 42 32 18 23 19 Oct-11 51 50 46 39 32 20 23 15 Oct-12 53 51 40 40 28 19 20 13 Sep-13 56 51 44 40 35 20 23 16 Oct-13 54 50 47 43 32 23 26 16 Economic Recovery Index Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 15
  • Changing Moods I Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: October 2013 October 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 157 265 279 478 524 Enjoyment 54% 57% 52% 52% 47% 52% 57% 62% 55% 60% 49% Happiness 50% 48% 52% 57% 50% 49% 45% 49% 51% 53% 47% Stress 47% 45% 48% 57% 51% 53% 45% 34% 45% 48% 46% Worry 43% 40% 45% 45% 42% 47% 43% 38% 38% 41% 44% Anxiety 32% 29% 35% 36% 34% 32% 32% 28% 28% 33% 31% Boredom 28% 32% 25% 48% 39% 21% 22% 15% 26% 27% 30% Physical Pain 26% 21% 31% 25% 21% 21% 26% 34% 26% 23% 29% Sadness 23% 20% 26% 31% 26% 17% 22% 20% 22% 23% 23% Anger 16% 17% 16% 19% 21% 16% 18% 11% 18% 16% 17% Fear 12% 12% 12% 12% 15% 14% 9% 10% 10% 10% 14% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, October 2013 16
  • Changing Moods II Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: October 2013 (by main bank/supermarket/electricity provider) October 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Super Valu Aldi Electric Bord Airtricity Ireland Gais Weighted Sample 1002 354 275 182 338 152 87 212 511 161 259 Enjoyment 54% 53% 58% 58% 56% 56% 62% 50% 55% 57% 56% Happiness 50% 52% 52% 47% 50% 57% 47% 50% 52% 50% 50% Stress 47% 44% 49% 45% 45% 47% 50% 51% 49% 40% 45% Worry 43% 41% 40% 48% 43% 42% 31% 50% 44% 41% 41% Anxiety 32% 27% 34% 35% 33% 31% 34% 33% 33% 28% 31% Boredom 28% 29% 27% 25% 30% 26% 17% 33% 31% 20% 24% Physical Pain 26% 26% 24% 27% 22% 28% 31% 28% 23% 26% 29% Sadness 23% 21% 24% 23% 21% 22% 23% 26% 24% 17% 23% Anger 16% 13% 15% 20% 17% 13% 15% 19% 14% 19% 18% Fear 12% 10% 10% 18% 11% 11% 10% 12% 12% 8% 11% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, October 2013 17
  • Drivers & Drinking we discover the right answers to our clients’ important questions Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/
  • Drivers & Drinking About Amárach Amárach Research is an independent market research agency, providing a full range of research services to our Irish and international clients. Amárach specialises in turning information into insight; and insight into foresight. Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and executives manage online, face-to-face and cati surveys (through our call centre); as well as qualitative research including focus groups, indepths and ethnographic studies. We also delivers a world class field-only service to universities and international agencies. Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered innovative research techniques and reported on Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the 1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding current Irish consumer and business trends, and shares numerous, free reports and presentations via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our main website: www.amarach.com
  • Trends Report Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success and to explore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. info@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch