Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2012

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Our monthly analysis of the mood of the Irish nation, their spending and savings habits, and their outlook on the future.

Broken out by customers of the top 3 banks, top 3 supermarkets, top 3 mobile networks and top 3 daily newspapers.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2012

  1. 1. Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research BriefingNovember 2012additional analysis by:main bank, supermarket, mobile network, daily newspaperEconomic Recovery Index © Amárach Research1
  2. 2. The Ides of November? What is it about November? We’ve been tracking the emotional wellbeing of the nation since April 2009, and every November we see the gap between positive and negative emotions closing (see slide 15). It may be the weather and the shorter days, but if you are in marketing then it does beg the question: will your brand communications cut through the seasonal gloom? We hope so – and we hope you find this month’s issue of our Economic Recovery Index helpful as you plan for 2013. We’ve even broken out the results by the customers of main banks, supermarkets, mobile networks and daily newspapers – which might help you plan your ‘emotional strategy’ in the months ahead.Economic Recovery Index 2
  3. 3. The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out three years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to November 2012. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 11th to 17th November 2012 inclusive.Economic Recovery Index 3
  4. 4. A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) Our ERI Index weakened slightly in November 2012 on the previous month: Oct’12: 0% Nov’12: 0% Oct’12: 3% Nov’12: 3% Oct’12: 48% Nov’12: 47% Oct’12: 21% Nov’12: 20% Oct’12: 28% Nov’12: 30%Economic Recovery Index 4
  5. 5. The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). The ERI has continued to weaken steadily since July – though November’s index is still up on November 2011: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 09 10 11 12 12 Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 5
  6. 6. Recovery Outlook 1 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41%43% 39% 48% 42% 46% 44% 43% 41% 42%43% 42% 41% 42% 30%31% 34% 31% 26% 25% 28% 26% 26% 23% 23% 24% 24% 23% 24% 26% 22% 26% 25% 27% 24%27% 25% 27% 26% 26%18% 21% Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Sept Apr12 Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb June July July July July Jan Jan Jan Mar Mar Mar May May May May I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 55% 65% 51%51% 50% 53% 51% 50% 47% 62% 48% 48% 48% 49% 48% 47% 47% 48% 57%59% 58% 60% 55% 56% 54% 54% 44% 47% 47% 45% 46%44% 52% 53% 46% 41% 42% 45% 39% 44% 43% 44% 33% Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Sept Apr12 Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb June July July July July Jan Jan Jan May May May May Mar Mar Mar Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 6
  7. 7. Recovery Outlook 2 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 50% 47% 46% 45%45% 39% 36% 40% 39% 38% 41% 42% 40% 38% 38% 51% 48%48% 47% 48% 48% 46% 47% 47% 45% 41% 37% 39% 34% 34% 38%34% 37% 36% 39% 38% 35%34% 43% 44% 41% 34% 32% 33% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Sept Apr12 Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb June July July July July Jan Jan Jan May May May May Mar Mar Mar Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 55% 56% 54% 52% 55% 59%62% 60% 60% 61% 61% 53% 49% 47% 50% 49% 49% 45% 45% 48% 44% 46% 45% 43% 49% 50% 45% 46% 48% 45% 43% 42%43% 45% 46% 44% 56% 53% 55%53% 50% 52%45% 51% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Sept Apr12 Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb June July July July July Jan Jan Jan May May May May Mar Mar Mar Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 7
  8. 8. Heads Down: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” ABC1 C2DE November 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525Strongly Agree 8% 9% 7% 13% 6% 4% 7% 10% 11% 6%Slightly Agree 26% 24% 28% 27% 23% 24% 26% 30% 30% 23%Neither/Nor 14% 14% 14% 15% 16% 12% 9% 16% 15% 13%Slightly Disagree 24% 27% 20% 21% 24% 24% 26% 23% 21% 26%Strongly Disagree 25% 23% 28% 21% 27% 31% 30% 20% 22% 28% Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 8
  9. 9. Heads Down: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement: “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Irish Dunne Voda Irish IrishNovember 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Stores Aldi O2 fone Meteor Times Indo Daily MailWeighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78Strongly Agree 8% 9% 8% 7% 10% 7% 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% 11% 6%Slightly Agree 26% 28% 25% 27% 27% 28% 25% 23% 25% 27% 37% 27% 31%Neither/Nor 14% 13% 15% 14% 16% 12% 11% 16% 14% 13% 12% 14% 13%Slightly Disagree 24% 22% 27% 24% 23% 26% 24% 27% 24% 24% 26% 25% 22%Strongly Disagree 25% 26% 22% 26% 22% 23% 32% 26% 26% 26% 14% 23% 26% Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 9
  10. 10. Financial Sentiment Indicators % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: November 2010, 2011, 2012 & October 2012 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more Impact on: spending money than I than before because of the •Spending was a few months ago recession •Saving •Debt 15% 16% 16% 24% 26% 25% 25% 11% •Borrowing Nov10 Nov11 Oct12 Nov12 Nov10 Nov11 Oct12 Nov12 Paying off debts is my I would be happy to Now is a good time to main financial priority borrow from a bank if I buy a house for those need to who want to 55% 56% 53% 50% 59% 62% 61% 53% 23% 25% 22% 20% Nov10 Nov11 Oct12 Nov12 Nov10 Nov11 Oct12 Nov12 Nov10 Nov11 Oct12 Nov12 Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 10
  11. 11. Spendthrift: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago” ABC1 C2DE November 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525Strongly Agree 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 1%Slightly Agree 13% 13% 13% 20% 13% 11% 11% 11% 11% 14%Neither/Nor 17% 19% 15% 20% 15% 15% 15% 19% 18% 17%Slightly Disagree 26% 26% 25% 20% 26% 27% 24% 29% 27% 24%Strongly Disagree 40% 36% 43% 34% 41% 44% 46% 36% 37% 43% Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 11
  12. 12. Spendthrift: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago” Irish Irish Dunne Voda IrishNovember 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Stores Aldi O2 fone Meteor Time Indo Daily s MailWeighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78Strongly Agree 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4%Slightly Agree 13% 13% 11% 11% 16% 11% 9% 13% 11% 12% 13% 13% 18%Neither/Nor 17% 16% 18% 17% 18% 16% 16% 15% 15% 19% 24% 15% 12%Slightly Disagree 26% 27% 22% 30% 25% 25% 27% 28% 26% 26% 26% 27% 23%Strongly Disagree 40% 39% 44% 39% 36% 42% 45% 42% 43% 39% 30% 40% 39% Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 12
  13. 13. Rainy Day: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession” ABC1 C2DE November 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525Strongly Agree 9% 8% 9% 19% 8% 7% 7% 5% 10% 7%Slightly Agree 16% 16% 16% 21% 22% 15% 10% 13% 18% 14%Neither/Nor 19% 19% 19% 20% 16% 18% 17% 23% 21% 18%Slightly Disagree 22% 21% 23% 20% 23% 21% 19% 25% 22% 22%Strongly Disagree 32% 33% 31% 15% 28% 39% 46% 32% 26% 37% Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 13
  14. 14. Rainy Day: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession” Irish Irish Dunne Voda IrishNovember 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Stores Aldi O2 fone Meteor Time Indo Daily s MailWeighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78Strongly Agree 9% 9% 9% 8% 10% 8% 7% 8% 7% 10% 11% 11% 8%Slightly Agree 16% 17% 15% 18% 16% 17% 13% 14% 15% 17% 21% 19% 17%Neither/Nor 19% 19% 19% 17% 20% 20% 19% 24% 17% 21% 23% 20% 16%Slightly Disagree 22% 22% 23% 24% 22% 18% 23% 18% 24% 22% 23% 21% 21%Strongly Disagree 32% 31% 31% 32% 30% 33% 37% 33% 34% 27% 21% 25% 35% Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 14
  15. 15. The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2012 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 10% 0% Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 July July Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Apr12 July Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct Jun Sept Jan Sept Jan Sept Jan Sept Jul May June June Feb Mar Feb May June Mar Mar Aug Aug Aug Feb Aug May May Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 15
  16. 16. The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2012 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% July July July Aug Aug June Aug June Aug Jun Jul Nov Dec Jan Nov Dec Jan Nov Dec Jan Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr12 Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct May Feb May Feb May Feb May Sept Mar Sept Sept Mar Sept Mar June Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 16
  17. 17. Changing Moods: 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: November 2012 ABC1 C2DE November 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525Enjoyment 53% 52% 53% 52% 45% 46% 52% 64% 57% 49%Happiness 49% 44% 54% 59% 44% 42% 42% 56% 52% 47%Stress 46% 42% 50% 62% 56% 49% 44% 26% 47% 45%Worry 43% 41% 45% 47% 54% 36% 48% 32% 44% 41%Anxiety 31% 29% 33% 38% 32% 30% 36% 24% 34% 29%Boredom 26% 28% 25% 47% 27% 24% 25% 15% 23% 29%Physical Pain 25% 27% 24% 27% 24% 20% 26% 29% 24% 27%Sadness 21% 20% 22% 28% 21% 12% 20% 23% 21% 21%Anger 18% 19% 17% 21% 22% 18% 17% 13% 19% 17%Fear 12% 11% 13% 14% 16% 11% 14% 7% 13% 12% Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 17
  18. 18. Changing Moods: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper: did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: November 2012 Irish November Dunne Voda Irish Irish Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Aldi O2 Meteor Daily 2012 Stores fone Times Indo MailWeighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78Enjoyment 49% 50% 62% 49% 53% 54% 51% 56% 50% 56% 54% 59% 49%Happiness 48% 49% 48% 47% 54% 53% 49% 49% 53% 52% 51% 42% 48%Stress 45% 49% 44% 44% 47% 50% 42% 44% 54% 37% 45% 43% 45%Worry 41% 44% 43% 44% 40% 45% 39% 43% 47% 41% 43% 43% 41%Anxiety 33% 29% 28% 33% 35% 29% 28% 32% 35% 32% 32% 30% 33%Boredom 28% 24% 23% 28% 25% 26% 25% 24% 29% 19% 21% 31% 28%Physical Pain 24% 24% 24% 25% 16% 29% 24% 24% 25% 23% 24% 33% 24%Sadness 22% 25% 14% 23% 20% 22% 22% 20% 22% 20% 20% 22% 22%Anger 20% 19% 13% 18% 12% 18% 16% 17% 19% 18% 16% 15% 20%Fear 14% 11% 10% 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 13% 12% 12% 14% 14% Source: Amárach Research, November 2012Economic Recovery Index 18
  19. 19. Drivers & DrinkingAbout AmárachAmárach Research is an independent marketresearch agency, providing a full range ofresearch services to our Irish and internationalclients. Amárach specialises in turninginformation into insight; and insight into foresight.Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face and catisurveys (through our call centre); as well asqualitative research including focus groups, in-depths and ethnographic studies. We alsodelivers a world class field-only service touniversities and international agencies.Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneeredinnovative research techniques and reported onIrish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understandingcurrent Irish consumer and business trends, andshares numerous, free reports and presentationsvia our blog and slideshare sites, linked via ourmain website: www.amarach.com
  20. 20. Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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