Amárach Economic Recovery Index May 2014

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Our monthly look at Irish consumer spending, savings and borrowing intentions and attitudes.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index May 2014

  1. 1. 1Economic Recovery Index Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing May 2014 © Amárach Research
  2. 2. 2Economic Recovery Index Sell in May Despite all the political noise in the background, the Irish consumer has remained quite stable in his and her outlook in our May survey. We have retained some of the features from last month’s special anniversary issue due to reader feedback – feel free to make any other suggestions for improvement and expansion of the Economic Recovery Index. The old investment adage is that you should ‘sell in May and go away’ – but we would suggest a different adage for sales and marketing folk: ‘the mood in May is here to stay’.
  3. 3. 3Economic Recovery Index The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to May 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 18th-24th May 2014 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – details at the end of this report.
  4. 4. Economic Recovery Index
  5. 5. 5Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index continued to ease back in May 2014, to start of the year levels: The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, May 2014 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Apr'09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May the ERI remains well above historic average levels as we approach mid-2014
  6. 6. 6Economic Recovery Index A Matter of Measurement Apr ’14: 23% May ’14: 24% Apr ’14: 32% May ’14: 32% Apr ’14: 35% May ’14: 36% Apr ’14: 9% May ’14: 8% Apr ’14: 1% May ’14: 0% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is the lowest since we began:
  7. 7. 7Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Table Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index May-09 57 24 18 1 0 16.0 May-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.8 May-11 40 33 24 2 1 22.1 May-12 48 26 24 2 0 20.2 May-13 44 29 24 2 1 21.3 Apr-14 23 32 35 9 1 33.2 May-14 24 32 36 8 0 32.4 the positive outlook evident from late 2013 has continued into 2014 without abating
  8. 8. 8Economic Recovery Index Uneven Recovery Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? (by sex, age, class, Dublin) Source: Amárach Research, May 2014 May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512 The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse 24% 20% 26% 17% 18% 26% 27% 25% 22% 18% 27% The economic situation is bad but has stabilized 32% 33% 29% 33% 39% 32% 28% 24% 28% 34% 28% The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement 36% 34% 35% 32% 31% 33% 36% 39% 36% 35% 34% The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement 8% 11% 4% 8% 8% 6% 6% 10% 10% 10% 6% The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession 0% * 1% 1% 1% * 0 0 * * * ERI Score 32.4 35.0 29.8 32.4 33.4 30.8 30.2 34.4 34.4 35.0 29.9
  9. 9. Consumer Impact
  10. 10. 10Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me May-09 41 48 59 62 May-10 40 44 53 51 May-11 28 40 53 50 May-12 25 38 47 45 May-13 25 39 45 46 Apr-14 35 40 49 43 May-14 38 39 49 45 very gradually, we can see a more positive, though cautious outlook returning
  11. 11. 11Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to May-09 15 May-10 19 26 61 28 May-11 17 26 61 26 May-12 18 27 56 27 May-13 18 24 56 24 Apr-14 24 24 56 26 May-14 23 23 59 25 if anything, consumers are using the low interest rate environment to pay off more debts
  12. 12. 12Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I always buy the lowest price products or services I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services I always buy Irish when I can Apr-13 57 71 52 52 May-13 58 69 54 54 Jun-13 55 70 55 51 Jul-13 56 70 52 53 Aug-13 57 70 53 53 Sep-13 59 72 53 54 Oct-13 58 69 52 51 Nov-13 56 69 55 51 Dec-13 54 68 54 53 Jan-14 59 74 56 54 Feb-14 56 70 57 52 Mar-14 57 68 56 48 Apr-14 56 69 54 50 May-14 60 72 55 51
  13. 13. 13Economic Recovery Index Financially Resilient % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Source: Amárach Research, May 2014 May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512 Strongly Agree 10% 12% 7% 7% 12% 11% 5% 12% 13% 15% 5% Slightly Agree 29% 32% 27% 35% 33% 22% 23% 32% 32% 32% 26% Neither/Nor 13% 16% 10% 17% 12% 14% 11% 14% 14% 14% 13% Slightly Disagree 22% 19% 24% 21% 22% 23% 26% 17% 17% 21% 22% Strongly Disagree 23% 18% 28% 15% 19% 27% 32% 21% 22% 16% 29%
  14. 14. 14Economic Recovery Index Habitual Savers % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I am saving a lot more because of the recession” Source: Amárach Research, May 2014 May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512 Strongly Agree 10% 11% 9% 20% 14% 8% 7% 5% 13% 13% 7% Slightly Agree 13% 14% 13% 20% 15% 14% 11% 9% 16% 14% 13% Neither/Nor 19% 21% 17% 27% 18% 17% 12% 22% 24% 20% 18% Slightly Disagree 21% 21% 21% 16% 24% 21% 23% 20% 20% 22% 21% Strongly Disagree 35% 31% 39% 13% 27% 38% 47% 43% 25% 30% 39%
  15. 15. 15Economic Recovery Index Faulting Debt % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “My main financial priority is to pay of my debts as soon as possible” Source: Amárach Research, May 2014 May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512 Strongly Agree 34% 31% 37% 24% 26% 39% 38% 40% 31% 35% 33% Slightly Agree 25% 26% 24% 22% 30% 25% 27% 21% 26% 26% 24% Neither/Nor 17% 19% 14% 26% 15% 16% 13% 17% 20% 16% 17% Slightly Disagree 7% 8% 6% 4% 10% 9% 6% 5% 7% 7% 7% Strongly Disagree 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 6% 7% 5% 5% 7%
  16. 16. Mood of the Nation
  17. 17. 17Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2014 Source: Amárach Research, May 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
  18. 18. 18Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2014 Source: Amárach Research, May 2014 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
  19. 19. 19Economic Recovery Index Changing Moods Source: Amárach Research, May 2014 May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512 Enjoyment 54% 54% 53% 55% 49% 52% 51% 60% 58% 61% 46% Happiness 52% 51% 54% 59% 53% 53% 47% 51% 56% 58% 47% Stress 44% 42% 45% 43% 51% 53% 46% 27% 44% 42% 46% Worry 39% 36% 43% 39% 42% 47% 39% 31% 40% 35% 43% Anxiety 31% 29% 32% 35% 38% 36% 26% 19% 33% 30% 31% Boredom 27% 28% 26% 46% 33% 22% 26% 14% 30% 27% 27% Physical Pain 26% 25% 28% 24% 21% 24% 26% 34% 26% 20% 32% Sadness 19% 16% 22% 19% 24% 20% 16% 16% 19% 17% 21% Anger 18% 19% 18% 22% 24% 21% 17% 10% 20% 16% 21% Fear 11% 11% 11% 14% 14% 13% 9% 5% 13% 8% 13% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: May 2014
  20. 20. Amárach Outlook
  21. 21. 21Economic Recovery Index Leveraging Recovery There is clear evidence from our ERI survey that consumer resilience is evolving into a more positive outlook. This means that the rest of the year should see clearer evidence of a willingness for consumers to open their purses & wallets to spend – even as they save & pay off debts. We hope this edition of the Economic Recovery Index has given you some food for thought about the opportunities that lie ahead over the remainder of 2014. For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
  22. 22. we ask better questions so you get better answers Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/
  23. 23. Trends Report e. info@amarach.com t. 01 410 5200 w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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