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Amárach Economic Recovery Index May 2013
 

Amárach Economic Recovery Index May 2013

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Our monthly survey of 1,000 Irish adults about their views on the economy, spending and savings intentions, and wider influences on their shopping and saving behaviour. Featuring new statements on ...

Our monthly survey of 1,000 Irish adults about their views on the economy, spending and savings intentions, and wider influences on their shopping and saving behaviour. Featuring new statements on switching, price sensitivity and buying Irish.

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    Amárach Economic Recovery Index May 2013 Amárach Economic Recovery Index May 2013 Presentation Transcript

    • 1Economic Recovery IndexEconomic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research BriefingMay 2013(including analysis by main bank; main supermarket; daily newspaper)© Amárach Research
    • 2Economic Recovery IndexTaxing TimesThe property tax has come and gone – butwhat about the emotional legacy? Funny thing,there doesn’t appear to be any, at least fornow, according to our May ERI survey.After April’s lapse into gloomier sentiment therehas been a modest recovery, albeit by notenough to reverse the lapse.The key theme is one of ‘emotional fragility’:consumers are battered and anxious foranything to boost their mood, their financesand their prospects.This month we look at the role of householdincome and region on sentiment, as well asviews by main bank, supermarket and dailynewspaper.
    • 3Economic Recovery IndexThe Emotional RecoveryWe have been reporting our monthlyEconomic Recovery Index since April 2009.We set out four years ago to assess thepsychological impact of the recession and tochart our ‘emotional progress’ towardsrecovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.This report summarises our EconomicRecovery Index results from April 2009 toMay 2013.The most recent fieldwork was conductedduring 13th to 20th May 2013 inclusive.We have now added historical tables to thereport following requests from a number ofreaders.
    • 4Economic Recovery IndexA Matter of MeasurementApr’13: 46% May’13: 44%Apr’13: 29% May ’13: 29%Apr’13: 22% May ’13: 24%Apr’13: 3% May ’13: 2%Apr’13: 0% May ’13: 1%Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell uswhich one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)After April’s sharp reversal in our ERI measure, May saw a slight improvement:
    • 5Economic Recovery IndexUsing the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the EconomicRecovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).Our ERI index in May 2013 stood at 21.3 – still below the recent peak in March:The Economic Recovery IndexSource: Amárach Research, May 2013051015202530Apr09JunJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJan10FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJan11FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJan12FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJan13FebMarAprMay
    • 6Economic Recovery IndexERI Summary Tables IWhich one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?% choosing each statement:%The economicsituation inIreland isgetting worseThe economicsituation is badbut hasstabilizedThe economicsituation is badbut showing afew signs ofimprovementThe economicsituation isgetting betterand showingclear signs ofimprovementThe economicsituation isgood andalmost fullyrecoveredEconomicRecoveryIndexMay-09 57 24 18 1 0 16.0May-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.8May-11 40 33 24 2 1 22.1May-12 48 26 24 2 0 20.2Apr-13 46 29 22 3 0 20.3May-13 44 29 24 2 1 21.3
    • 7Economic Recovery IndexERI Summary Tables II% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:%Ireland will bethrough theworst of therecession in12 monthstimeI feel I amfinanciallycomfortableenough tomake itthrough therecessionI am optimisticin spite of thecurrenteconomicsituationRight now itseems like therecession isaffecting otherpeople morethan it isaffecting meMay-09 41 48 59 62May-10 40 44 53 51May-11 28 40 53 50May-12 25 38 47 45Apr-13 25 35 40 44May-13 25 39 45 46
    • 8Economic Recovery IndexERI Summary Tables III% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:%I am morerelaxed aboutspendingmoney than Iwas a fewmonths agoI am saving alot more thanbeforebecause of therecessionMy mainfinancialpriority is topay off mydebts asquickly aspossibleI would behappy toborrow moneyfrom a bank if Ineed toMay-09 15 n/a n/a n/aMay-10 19 26 61 28May-11 17 26 61 26May-12 18 27 56 27Apr-13 15 23 57 21May-13 18 24 56 24
    • 9Economic Recovery IndexNEW: Price Sensitive I% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, household income, region andsocial class): “I always buy the lowest price products or services”Source: Amárach Research, May 2013May 2013 TOTAL Male Female €30k<€30-60K€60-€90k>€90k Dublin MunsterABC1C2DEWeighted Sample 1000 494 506 357 319 115 42 279 277 477 523Strongly Agree 26% 25% 27% 35% 24% 17% 12% 25% 25% 23% 29%Slightly Agree 32% 29% 35% 31% 35% 30% 38% 28% 36% 32% 32%Neither/Nor 17% 20% 14% 13% 17% 19% 24% 22% 11% 18% 15%Slightly Disagree 14% 15% 13% 10% 15% 23% 14% 15% 17% 17% 12%Strongly Disagree 7% 8% 6% 6% 6% 9% 7% 7% 8% 8% 6%
    • 10Economic Recovery IndexNEW: Price Sensitive II% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank/supermarket/dailynewspaper): “I always buy the lowest price products or services”Source: Amárach Research, May 2013May 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Aldi LidlIrishTimesIrishIndoIrishDailyMailWeighted Sample 1000 349 293 129 331 165 209 136 185 206 78Strongly Agree 26% 27% 26% 26% 23% 28% 34% 32% 18% 25% 28%Slightly Agree 32% 32% 31% 32% 36% 29% 31% 32% 30% 35% 40%Neither/Nor 17% 15% 18% 21% 18% 17% 15% 12% 21% 15% 9%Slightly Disagree 14% 14% 14% 12% 13% 18% 10% 11% 19% 14% 9%Strongly Disagree 7% 6% 6% 8% 7% 4% 4% 8% 9% 8% 9%
    • 11Economic Recovery IndexNEW: Switchers I% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:“I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”Source: Amárach Research, May 2013May 2013 TOTAL Male Female €30k<€30-60K€60-€90k>€90k Dublin MunsterABC1C2DEWeighted Sample 1000 494 506 357 319 115 42 279 277 477 523Strongly Agree 37% 37% 38% 42% 38% 30% 33% 33% 36% 36% 38%Slightly Agree 32% 32% 32% 28% 34% 37% 38% 33% 35% 33% 31%Neither/Nor 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 13% 12% 16% 11% 14% 12%Slightly Disagree 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 14% 5% 9% 8% 7% 8%Strongly Disagree 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 7% 4% 5% 4% 4%
    • 12Economic Recovery IndexNEW: Switchers II% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank/supermarket/dailynewspaper): “I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”Source: Amárach Research, May 2013May 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Aldi LidlIrishTimesIrishIndoIrishDailyMailWeighted Sample 1000 349 293 129 331 165 209 136 185 206 78Strongly Agree 37% 38% 38% 38% 35% 36% 42% 45% 35% 38% 40%Slightly Agree 32% 32% 32% 32% 35% 28% 31% 26% 32% 35% 33%Neither/Nor 13% 11% 15% 13% 11% 18% 11% 9% 14% 10% 11%Slightly Disagree 8% 9% 6% 5% 8% 8% 6% 6% 8% 7% 8%Strongly Disagree 4% 3% 3% 6% 5% 3% 2% 8% 5% 3% 4%
    • 13Economic Recovery IndexNEW: Buy Irish I% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:“I always buy Irish when I can”Source: Amárach Research, May 2013May 2013 TOTAL Male Female €30k<€30-60K€60-€90k>€90k Dublin MunsterABC1C2DEWeighted Sample 1000 494 506 357 319 115 42 279 277 477 523Strongly Agree 24% 21% 28% 23% 29% 27% 12% 23% 22% 27% 22%Slightly Agree 29% 31% 28% 27% 31% 32% 36% 31% 31% 28% 31%Neither/Nor 22% 21% 23% 23% 18% 20% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22%Slightly Disagree 14% 15% 13% 14% 13% 16% 14% 15% 15% 13% 14%Strongly Disagree 7% 8% 6% 10% 6% 4% 10% 7% 7% 6% 8%
    • 14Economic Recovery IndexNEW: Buy Irish II% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank/supermarket/dailynewspaper): “I always buy Irish when I can”Source: Amárach Research, May 2013May 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Aldi LidlIrishTimesIrishIndoIrishDailyMailWeighted Sample 1000 349 293 129 331 165 209 136 185 206 78Strongly Agree 24% 25% 24% 23% 21% 30% 24% 22% 29% 26% 26%Slightly Agree 29% 29% 28% 33% 29% 31% 28% 24% 31% 35% 26%Neither/Nor 22% 22% 24% 23% 21% 25% 24% 20% 18% 18% 24%Slightly Disagree 14% 15% 15% 9% 17% 9% 12% 16% 13% 10% 14%Strongly Disagree 7% 7% 7% 5% 8% 2% 7% 14% 4% 6% 6%
    • 15Economic Recovery IndexThe Mood of the Nation 1Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2013Source: Amárach Research, May 20130%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Apr09JunAugOctDecFebApr10JuneAugOctDecFebApr11JuneAugOctDecFebApr12JuneAugOctDecFebAprEnjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
    • 16Economic Recovery IndexThe Mood of the Nation 2Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2013Source: Amárach Research, May 20130%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Apr09MayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDecJan10FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJan11FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJan12FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJan13FebMarAprMayAnxiety Sadness Pain Anger
    • 17Economic Recovery IndexEmotions Summary Table% EnjoymentHapp-inessStress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain AngerMay-09 60 54 44 35 28 17 18 15May-10 55 50 45 41 31 20 24 16May-11 52 53 43 38 29 16 20 13May-12 56 53 45 38 30 19 21 17Apr-13 52 49 47 45 30 19 25 18May-13 52 52 44 41 34 22 25 18Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes:
    • 18Economic Recovery IndexChanging Moods ISource: Amárach Research, May 2013May 2013 TOTAL Male Female €30k<€30-60K€60-€90k>€90k Dublin MunsterABC1C2DEWeighted Sample 1000 494 506 357 319 115 42 279 277 477 523Enjoyment 52% 55% 50% 48% 57% 50% 64% 58% 54% 55% 50%Happiness 52% 50% 54% 46% 57% 50% 57% 56% 52% 54% 50%Stress 44% 44% 45% 48% 44% 45% 40% 42% 48% 47% 42%Worry 41% 39% 44% 44% 43% 43% 33% 41% 42% 42% 41%Anxiety 34% 31% 36% 35% 34% 40% 28% 31% 32% 37% 31%Boredom 29% 29% 28% 32% 32% 18% 19% 28% 28% 27% 30%Physical Pain 25% 22% 28% 31% 23% 25% 21% 21% 24% 22% 28%Sadness 22% 18% 25% 23% 23% 18% 19% 21% 24% 23% 20%Anger 18% 20% 16% 20% 19% 11% 26% 18% 21% 17% 19%Fear 13% 14% 12% 14% 12% 13% 14% 13% 14% 13% 12%Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: May 2013
    • 19Economic Recovery IndexChanging Moods IISource: Amárach Research, May 2013May 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Tesco Dunnes Aldi LidlIrishTimesIrishIndoIrishDailyMailWeighted Sample 1000 349 293 129 331 165 209 136 185 206 78Enjoyment 52% 54% 53% 51% 57% 50% 48% 46% 63% 55% 53%Happiness 52% 50% 54% 58% 52% 55% 51% 48% 56% 53% 51%Stress 44% 46% 41% 46% 48% 38% 44% 47% 48% 43% 40%Worry 41% 39% 40% 40% 40% 38% 44% 47% 43% 39% 49%Anxiety 34% 30% 34% 36% 32% 33% 37% 40% 35% 31% 36%Boredom 29% 28% 27% 26% 29% 30% 30% 30% 23% 22% 32%Physical Pain 25% 25% 26% 21% 27% 21% 26% 29% 31% 21% 23%Sadness 22% 23% 20% 21% 20% 22% 23% 22% 24% 22% 22%Anger 18% 18% 18% 20% 18% 16% 18% 22% 19% 18% 24%Fear 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 8% 15% 16% 13% 14% 13%Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: May 2013 (by main bank/supermarket/daily newspaper)
    • 20Economic Recovery IndexERI ResourcesWe have created a dedicated resourceon the Amárach website for thoseinterested in exploring our EconomicRecovery Index further.It includes links to previous issues aswell as to a spreadsheet containingmonthly values for all the componentparts of the ERI – and more besides –going right back to April 2009.There is also a link to a special datavisualisation facility we have created inpartnership with Delphi Analytics.
    • Drivers & DrinkingAbout AmárachAmárach Research is an independent marketresearch agency, providing a full range ofresearch services to our Irish and internationalclients. Amárach specialises in turninginformation into insight; and insight into foresight.Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face and catisurveys (through our call centre); as well asqualitative research including focus groups, in-depths and ethnographic studies. We alsodelivers a world class field-only service touniversities and international agencies.Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneeredinnovative research techniques and reported onIrish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understandingcurrent Irish consumer and business trends, andshares numerous, free reports and presentationsvia our blog and slideshare sites, linked via ourmain website: www.amarach.com
    • Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business tobounce forward to success:Mark Nolan Managing Directoror Michael McLoughlin Chief Executiveor Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through worldclass market research.e. gerard.oneill@amarach.comw. www.amarach.comb. www.amarach.com/blogt. twitter.com/AmarachResearch