Amárach Economic Recovery Index March 2013

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The latest issue of our monthly report on the mood of Irish consumers; their spending and saving intentions; analysed by demographic group and main brand categories.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index March 2013

  1. 1. Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research BriefingMarch 2013(including analysis by main bank; supermarket; electricity provider) © Amárach ResearchEconomic Recovery Index 1
  2. 2. Trickle Down Optimism Call it the St Patrick’s Day lift (or something), but it looks like the mood was good (or at least better) in March. Maybe it’s a case of ‘trickle down emonomics’: the good news on the macro-front we talked about in February’s report may finally be having an impact on the micro-front. One of the big stories this month is the extent to which Dublin is pulling away from the rest of the country when it comes to economic sentiment and consumer spending intentions. The recovery is taking root in Dublin – expect the first green shoots to pop up in the capital some time before they are evident elsewhere in the country.Economic Recovery Index 2
  3. 3. The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out three years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to March 2013. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 11th to 18th March 2013 inclusive. We have now added historical tables to the report following requests from a number of readers.Economic Recovery Index 3
  4. 4. A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) Our ERI Index has improved steadily since the start of the year, with a declining minority feeling the economic situation in Ireland is getting worse: Feb’13: 0% Mar’13: 0% Feb’13: 4% Mar’13: 5% Feb’13: 42% Mar’13: 41% Feb’13: 22% Mar’13: 25% Feb’13: 32% Mar’13: 29%Economic Recovery Index 4
  5. 5. The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our ERI index in March 2013 stood at 24.0 – its highest since August 2010: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug Apr Aug July July July Jun Sept Jan10 Sept Jan11 Sept July Sept Jan13 Nov Mar Nov Mar Nov Jan 12 Mar Nov Mar Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr 09 Feb Feb Feb Feb May May May June June June Source: Amárach Research, March 2013Economic Recovery Index 5
  6. 6. ERI Summary Tables I Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? The economic The economic The economic The economic The economic situation is situation is bad situation is Economic situation in situation is bad getting better % but showing a good and Recovery Ireland is but has and showing few signs of almost fully Index getting worse stabilized clear signs of improvement recovered improvement Mar-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.5 Mar-11 48 30 20 2 0 19.2 Mar-12 43 29 24 4 0 22.3 Feb-13 42 32 22 4 0 21.8 Mar-13 41 29 25 5 0 24.0Economic Recovery Index 6
  7. 7. ERI Summary Tables II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: I feel I am Right now it Ireland will be The news from I am less financially I am optimistic seems like the through the other countries worried comfortable in spite of the recession is worst of the makes me about % enough to current affecting other recession in more confident losing my make it economic people more 12 months the recession job than I through the situation than it is time will end soon was before recession affecting me Mar-10 42 43 54 55 40 18 Mar-11 25 36 48 47 21 17 Mar-12 30 40 50 48 23 22 Feb-13 27 36 43 42 18 18 Mar-13 30 40 44 47 21 20Economic Recovery Index 7
  8. 8. ERI Summary Tables III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: My main I am more I think that I am saving a financial I would be relaxed about now is a good lot more than priority is to happy to spending time to buy a % before pay off my borrow money money than I house for because of the debts as from a bank if I was a few those who recession quickly as need to months ago want to possible Mar-10 18 25 61 30 64 Mar-11 13 23 58 23 61 Mar-12 18 29 55 24 62 Feb-13 16 26 54 24 58 Mar-13 19 27 53 25 62Economic Recovery Index 8
  9. 9. Staying Power I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Rest of Conn- Under Muns- AB March 2013 TOTAL 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin Lens- ter aught/ C1 ter UlsterWeighted Sample 1018 172 227 190 159 270 284 271 282 181 486Strongly Agree 10% 11% 11% 8% 6% 14% 13% 9% 9% 10% 11%Slightly Agree 29% 30% 28% 21% 29% 35% 30% 30% 30% 25% 34%Neither/Nor 11% 14% 10% 12% 9% 11% 12% 10% 13% 11% 12%Slightly Disagree 21% 23% 21% 24% 19% 18% 22% 21% 20% 20% 22%Strongly Disagree 26% 19% 26% 32% 36% 20% 20% 27% 26% 32% 18% Source: Amárach Research, March 2013Economic Recovery Index 9
  10. 10. Staying Power II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (x main bank/supermarket/electricity): “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Ulster Electric Bord March 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Bank Tesco Dunnes Aldi Ireland Gais AirtricityWeighted Sample 1018 353 279 149 143 363 152 171 512 205 279Strongly Agree 10% 11% 11% 7% 13% 9% 11% 6% 9% 14% 10%Slightly Agree 29% 34% 30% 27% 25% 29% 38% 24% 30% 31% 26%Neither/Nor 11% 12% 11% 11% 8% 11% 10% 10% 11% 14% 11%Slightly Disagree 21% 19% 17% 24% 25% 25% 10% 25% 21% 18% 22%Strongly Disagree 26% 22% 28% 29% 26% 24% 30% 32% 26% 21% 28% Source: Amárach Research, March 2013Economic Recovery Index 10
  11. 11. Small Spenders I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” Rest of Conn- Under Muns- AB March 2013 TOTAL 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin Lens- ter aught/ C1 ter UlsterWeighted Sample 1018 172 227 190 159 270 284 271 282 181 486Strongly Agree 5% 5% 8% 1% 4% 5% 6% 6% 3% 3% 5%Slightly Agree 15% 17% 17% 17% 9% 13% 16% 15% 14% 15% 15%Neither/Nor 14% 19% 15% 11% 6% 16% 14% 14% 15% 13% 17%Slightly Disagree 27% 26% 27% 27% 26% 29% 26% 29% 30% 23% 30%Strongly Disagree 39% 30% 32% 44% 55% 37% 37% 36% 38% 47% 32% Source: Amárach Research, March 2013Economic Recovery Index 11
  12. 12. Small Spenders II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (x main bank/supermarket/electricity): “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” Ulster Electric Bord March 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Bank Tesco Dunnes Aldi Ireland Gais AirtricityWeighted Sample 1018 353 279 149 143 363 152 171 512 205 279Strongly Agree 5% 5% 3% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 4% 4% 5%Slightly Agree 17% 13% 11% 16% 14% 16% 13% 11% 23% 16% 17%Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 14% 15% 13% 11% 15% 13% 13% 14%Slightly Disagree 28% 29% 30% 23% 30% 27% 21% 28% 27% 26% 28%Strongly Disagree 35% 37% 43% 41% 35% 38% 49% 39% 32% 42% 35% Source: Amárach Research, March 2013Economic Recovery Index 12
  13. 13. The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2013 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 10% 0% Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 July July Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Apr12 July Nov Dec Oct Oct Oct Oct Jun Sept Jan Sept Jan Sept Jan Sept Jul Jan-13 May June June Feb Mar Feb May June Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar Aug Aug Aug Aug May May Source: Amárach Research, March 2013Economic Recovery Index 13
  14. 14. The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to March 201340%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Apr Apr Apr Aug June Aug June Aug Jun Jul Aug Nov Dec July Nov Dec Apr 09 Feb July Nov Dec July Nov Dec Oct Oct Oct Oct May Feb May May Feb May Sept Mar Sept Mar Sept Mar Sept Jan13 Feb Mar Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 June Source: Amárach Research, March 2013Economic Recovery Index 14
  15. 15. ERI Summary Tables IV Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: Enjoy Happ- % Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger -ment iness Mar-10 56 55 48 40 32 18 24 17 Mar-11 53 50 43 39 29 16 20 16 Mar-12 57 55 41 34 28 19 21 16 Feb-13 54 51 46 39 29 21 25 14 Mar-13 54 52 45 41 31 22 24 20Economic Recovery Index 15
  16. 16. Changing Moods I Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: March 2013 Rest of Conn- Under Muns- AB March 2013 TOTAL 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin Lens- ter aught/ C1 ter UlsterWeighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 623Enjoyment 54% 60% 50% 51% 52% 58% 58% 54% 50% 55% 59%Happiness 52% 61% 52% 57% 43% 51% 55% 52% 51% 51% 57%Stress 45% 56% 49% 56% 41% 28% 43% 46% 45% 47% 43%Worry 41% 45% 45% 53% 41% 26% 40% 48% 36% 39% 38%Anxiety 31% 36% 32% 37% 28% 23% 31% 31% 29% 32% 30%Boredom 29% 44% 35% 30% 26% 15% 26% 29% 31% 28% 26%Physical Pain 24% 21% 21% 27% 25% 27% 23% 24% 25% 27% 19%Sadness 22% 27% 27% 23% 21% 14% 23% 23% 18% 23% 18%Anger 20% 22% 25% 27% 18% 10% 20% 19% 18% 22% 16%Fear 12% 12% 15% 19% 10% 5% 11% 12% 12% 14% 8% Source: Amárach Research, March 2013Economic Recovery Index 16
  17. 17. Changing Moods II Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: March 2013 (x main bank/supermarket/electricity) Ulster Electric Bord March 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Bank Tesco Dunnes Aldi Ireland Gais AirtricityWeighted Sample 1008 353 279 149 143 363 152 171 512 205 279Enjoyment 54% 54% 56% 51% 57% 58% 53% 53% 53% 62% 53%Happiness 52% 55% 51% 48% 49% 55% 51% 49% 52% 53% 52%Stress 45% 44% 44% 41% 47% 45% 42% 54% 41% 47% 48%Worry 41% 38% 44% 40% 41% 45% 37% 51% 42% 41% 38%Anxiety 31% 30% 30% 33% 29% 30% 27% 41% 29% 35% 30%Boredom 29% 28% 31% 27% 32% 30% 27% 32% 30% 28% 25%Physical Pain 24% 21% 23% 25% 30% 24% 23% 23% 23% 28% 25%Sadness 22% 20% 24% 18% 21% 22% 20% 26% 21% 22% 21%Anger 20% 18% 21% 21% 20% 21% 18% 24% 19% 22% 20%Fear 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% 13% 11% 12% 10% 13% 13% Source: Amárach Research, March 2013Economic Recovery Index 17
  18. 18. ERI Resources We have created a dedicated resource on the Amárach website for those interested in exploring our Economic Recovery Index further. It includes links to previous issues as well as to a spreadsheet containing monthly values for all the component parts of the ERI – and more besides – going right back to April 2009. There is also a link to a special data visualisation facility we have created in partnership with Delphi Analytics.Economic Recovery Index 18
  19. 19. Drivers & DrinkingAbout AmárachAmárach Research is an independent marketresearch agency, providing a full range ofresearch services to our Irish and internationalclients. Amárach specialises in turninginformation into insight; and insight into foresight.Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face and catisurveys (through our call centre); as well asqualitative research including focus groups, in-depths and ethnographic studies. We alsodelivers a world class field-only service touniversities and international agencies.Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneeredinnovative research techniques and reported onIrish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understandingcurrent Irish consumer and business trends, andshares numerous, free reports and presentationsvia our blog and slideshare sites, linked via ourmain website: www.amarach.com
  20. 20. Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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