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Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014
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Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2014

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Our monthly look at what Irish consumers think, feel and intend in relation to spending, savings and the future.

Our monthly look at what Irish consumers think, feel and intend in relation to spending, savings and the future.

Published in: Economy & Finance
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  • 1. 1Economic Recovery Index Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing July 2014 © Amárach Research
  • 2. 2Economic Recovery Index Flying Ahead Despite aggressive seagulls, it appears Irish consumers have taken to the good July weather with gusto. This month’s edition of the Economic Recovery Index has returned to its historic peak reached in March earlier this year. Our index also reveals the lowest percentage of adults who think the economic situation in Ireland is getting worse – just 18% think this, down from a peak of 80% in October 2010. The recent momentum in consumer sentiment has certainly continued, boding well for recovery in the Autumn once everyone (and the seagulls) have had enough of ice cream…
  • 3. 3Economic Recovery Index The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out over five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to July 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 14th-20th July 2014 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – details at the end of this report.
  • 4. Economic Recovery Index
  • 5. 5Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index has remained fairly constant through May and July 2014: The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, July 2014 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Apr'09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July the ERI has returned to its previous peak in March 2014
  • 6. 6Economic Recovery Index A Matter of Measurement June ’14: 24% July ’14: 18% June ’14: 33% July ’14: 36% June ’14: 35% July ’14: 35% June ’14: 8% July ’14: 10% June ’14: 1% July ’14: 0% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is at its lowest level ever:
  • 7. 7Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Table Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0 Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0 Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3 Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5 Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3 Jun-14 24 33 35 8 1 32.5 Jul-14 18 36 35 10 0 34.7 the highest ever level for ‘getting worse’ was 80% in October 2010
  • 8. 8Economic Recovery Index Uneven Recovery Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? (by sex, age, class, Dublin) Source: Amárach Research, July 2014 July 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse 17% 18% 17% 13% 17% 21% 21% 16% 19% 14% 20% The economic situation is bad but has stabilized 35% 37% 34% 35% 40% 38% 30% 34% 36% 36% 35% The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement 34% 31% 36% 38% 27% 28% 37% 39% 31% 35% 33% The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement 10% 12% 9% 9% 11% 9% 11% 10% 9% 12% 8% The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession * 0 1% 1% 1% 0 0 0 1% * * ERI Score 34.7 34.7 34.8 36.2 33.9 31.6 35.1 36.6 33.2 36.9 32.8
  • 9. Consumer Impact
  • 10. 10Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me Jul-09 42 47 58 60 Jul-10 42 47 55 55 Jul-11 26 39 48 49 Jul-12 27 38 45 43 Jul-13 27 39 47 45 Jun-14 37 42 50 45 Jul-14 37 41 48 44 people are feeling a little more optimistic and comfortable – but only a little
  • 11. 11Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to Jul-09 14 Jul-10 20 27 62 27 Jul-11 17 26 59 26 Jul-12 18 25 56 25 Jul-13 19 25 56 23 Jun-14 25 26 54 26 Jul-14 23 24 54 23 just under one in four are more relaxed about spending
  • 12. 12Economic Recovery Index Feeling Insulated? % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than me” Source: Amárach Research, July 2014 July 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 18% 19% 16% 21% 17% 9% 18% 21% 15% 23% 13% Slightly Agree 26% 26% 26% 27% 22% 27% 25% 29% 29% 29% 24% Neither/Nor 19% 21% 17% 18% 24% 25% 13% 15% 20% 20% 19% Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 21% 18% 25% 18% 22% 17% 18% 17% 22% Strongly Disagree 15% 14% 17% 12% 11% 19% 19% 17% 17% 11% 20%
  • 13. 13Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I always buy the lowest price products or services I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services I always buy Irish when I can May-13 58 69 54 54 Jun-13 55 70 55 51 Jul-13 56 70 52 53 Aug-13 57 70 53 53 Sep-13 59 72 53 54 Oct-13 58 69 52 51 Nov-13 56 69 55 51 Dec-13 54 68 54 53 Jan-14 59 74 56 54 Feb-14 56 70 57 52 Mar-14 57 68 56 48 Apr-14 56 69 54 50 May-14 60 72 55 51 Jun-14 55 70 58 52 Jul-14 58 72 58 48
  • 14. 14Economic Recovery Index Still Sensitive % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I am always on the look out for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers” Source: Amárach Research, July 2014 July 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 38% 37% 38% 38% 31% 45% 45% 35% 39% 36% 40% Slightly Agree 34% 33% 35% 34% 38% 31% 31% 35% 34% 36% 32% Neither/Nor 16% 18% 14% 17% 18% 16% 15% 14% 16% 16% 16% Slightly Disagree 6% 6% 6% 3% 9% 3% 2% 8% 5% 6% 5% Strongly Disagree 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 3% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3%
  • 15. Mood of the Nation
  • 16. 16Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2014 Source: Amárach Research, July 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Apr'09 Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr June Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr June Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr June Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr June Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr June Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
  • 17. 17Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2014 Source: Amárach Research, July 2014 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
  • 18. 18Economic Recovery Index Changing Moods Source: Amárach Research, July 2014 July 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Enjoyment 54% 54% 53% 55% 47% 50% 57% 59% 52% 58% 49% Happiness 54% 54% 54% 59% 52% 56% 51% 52% 52% 59% 49% Stress 39% 37% 41% 47% 44% 44% 35% 29% 42% 38% 40% Worry 34% 31% 37% 34% 42% 35% 34% 26% 34% 32% 36% Boredom 29% 27% 32% 48% 32% 28% 21% 21% 27% 27% 31% Anxiety 26% 23% 28% 31% 33% 24% 20% 21% 29% 24% 27% Physical Pain 24% 24% 25% 20% 22% 22% 29% 28% 24% 23% 25% Sadness 20% 18% 23% 24% 25% 17% 20% 16% 21% 18% 23% Anger 15% 15% 15% 16% 18% 21% 11% 10% 17% 14% 16% Fear 10% 8% 12% 12% 13% 11% 7% 8% 11% 7% 12% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: July 2014
  • 19. Amárach Outlook
  • 20. 20Economic Recovery Index Dive In Gradually, gradually comes the recovery – but did we mention it would be gradual? Moods are catching, so if the current emotional and intentional momentum continues we can expect to see a gradual increase in the share of consumers more prepared to dive into the recovery as it becomes more manifest. We hope this edition of the Economic Recovery Index has given you some food for thought about the opportunities that lie ahead – we’d be happy to share other ideas with you on how to leverage the new momentum. For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
  • 21. we ask better questions so you get better answers Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/
  • 22. Trends Report e. info@amarach.com t. 01 410 5200 w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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