Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2013

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Our latest survey of 1,000 Irish consumers about their views on the economy, on spending, savings and general emotional wellbeing.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2013

  1. 1. 1Economic Recovery Index Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing July 2013 (including analysis by main main supermarket; daily paper; TV service) © Amárach Research
  2. 2. 2Economic Recovery Index Buoyant Mood The good weather in July has meant that June’s bounce in our Economic Recovery Index has been sustained for a second month. The Index fell back only slightly, but still shows a marked improvement on late 2012/early 2013. Though we don’t have any indications from retail sales or other spending measures, it seems reasonable to assume that the positive mood is supporting a pick up in a number of consumer sectors. That said, consumers are in a ‘live for today’ mood (so no borrowing), but those products and services meeting needs for fun and for indulgence will do well while the sun shines…
  3. 3. 3Economic Recovery Index The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out four years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to July 2013. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 15th to 22nd July 2013 inclusive. We have now added historical tables to the report following requests from a number of readers.
  4. 4. 4Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our ERI index in July 2013 stood at 23.3 – continuing the positive trend since January: The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, July 2013 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Apr'09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July
  5. 5. 5Economic Recovery Index A Matter of Measurement June ’13: 37% July ’13: 41% June ’13: 32% July ’13: 30% June ’13: 27% July ’13: 25% June ’13: 4% July ’13: 4% June ’13: 0% July ’13: 0% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) There has been a slight fall back in the economic outlook in July relative to June:
  6. 6. 6Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Tables I Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0 Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0 Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3 Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5 Jun-13 37 32 27 4 0 24.5 Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3
  7. 7. 7Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Tables II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me Jul-09 42 47 58 60 Jul-10 42 47 55 55 Jul-11 26 39 48 49 Jul-12 27 38 45 43 Jun-13 33 40 48 46 Jul-13 27 39 47 45
  8. 8. 8Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Tables III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to Jul-09 14 Jul-10 20 27 62 27 Jul-11 17 26 59 26 Jul-12 18 25 56 25 Jun-13 21 28 54 23 Jul-13 19 25 56 23
  9. 9. 9Economic Recovery Index Survivors I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Source: Amárach Research, July 2013 July 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 10% 11% 10% 6% 9% 9% 6% 18% 10% 14% 7% Slightly Agree 28% 27% 29% 29% 31% 26% 26% 28% 28% 31% 26% Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 14% 17% 15% 14% 12% 15% 15% 14% Slightly Disagree 19% 17% 20% 29% 21% 17% 14% 14% 19% 18% 20% Strongly Disagree 25% 25% 26% 17% 20% 31% 36% 25% 25% 20% 30%
  10. 10. 10Economic Recovery Index Survivors II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main supermarket/paper/TV): “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Source: Amárach Research, July 2013 July 2013 TOTAL Tesco Dunne Stores Aldi Lidl Irish Times Irish Indo Irish Daily Mail Irish Exam iner Sky UPC Weighted Sample 1000 356 159 209 158 167 171 70 44 430 273 Strongly Agree 10% 10% 13% 6% 11% 21% 14% 6% 16% 12% 11% Slightly Agree 28% 27% 29% 29% 27% 28% 32% 26% 46% 26% 30% Neither/Nor 14% 13% 18% 14% 14% 14% 8% 7% 11% 16% 12% Slightly Disagree 19% 21% 21% 18% 17% 17% 22% 26% 9% 18% 21% Strongly Disagree 25% 26% 17% 30% 29% 20% 21% 30% 18% 26% 25%
  11. 11. 11Economic Recovery Index NEW: Price Sensitive I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I always buy the lowest price products or services” Source: Amárach Research, July 2013 July 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 28% 23% 32% 31% 32% 31% 26% 21% 30% 26% 30% Slightly Agree 28% 28% 28% 33% 29% 26% 27% 27% 27% 28% 28% Neither/Nor 18% 21% 15% 13% 20% 21% 15% 19% 18% 19% 16% Slightly Disagree 15% 17% 14% 9% 12% 15% 24% 18% 18% 17% 14% Strongly Disagree 7% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 13% 5% 7% 6%
  12. 12. 12Economic Recovery Index NEW: Price Sensitive II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main supermarket/paper/TV): “I always buy the lowest price products or services” Source: Amárach Research, July 2013 July 2013 TOTAL Tesco Dunne Stores Aldi Lidl Irish Times Irish Indo Irish Daily Mail Irish Exam iner Sky UPC Weighted Sample 1000 356 159 209 158 167 171 70 44 430 273 Strongly Agree 27% 27% 32% 29% 26% 27% 35% 28% 29% 28% 27% Slightly Agree 28% 28% 27% 34% 29% 30% 39% 28% 27% 28% 28% Neither/Nor 17% 19% 14% 23% 18% 16% 13% 6% 17% 18% 17% Slightly Disagree 18% 14% 17% 9% 15% 15% 5% 25% 14% 17% 18% Strongly Disagree 6% 7% 5% 3% 8% 8% 3% 11% 8% 6% 6%
  13. 13. 13Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2013 Source: Amárach Research, July 2013 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'12 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
  14. 14. 14Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2013 Source: Amárach Research, July 2013 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
  15. 15. 15Economic Recovery Index Emotions Summary Table % Enjoyment Happ- iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger Jul-09 58 56 46 41 32 22 19 19 Jul-10 58 54 45 40 32 20 19 18 Jul-11 57 54 43 34 25 16 23 15 Jul-12 58 52 39 35 27 19 22 15 Jun-13 60 55 39 37 30 19 28 17 Jul-13 58 56 42 34 31 18 25 16 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:
  16. 16. 16Economic Recovery Index Changing Moods I Source: Amárach Research, July 2013 July 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Enjoyment 58% 62% 54% 48% 49% 60% 65% 68% 57% 61% 55% Happiness 56% 58% 55% 62% 52% 58% 57% 55% 53% 57% 56% Stress 42% 37% 48% 50% 49% 52% 38% 28% 45% 41% 44% Worry 34% 30% 39% 36% 35% 45% 37% 23% 35% 34% 35% Anxiety 31% 28% 34% 35% 41% 32% 31% 21% 35% 33% 30% Boredom 28% 26% 30% 54% 35% 26% 16% 14% 29% 28% 28% Physical Pain 25% 24% 25% 26% 17% 24% 26% 29% 24% 22% 27% Sadness 18% 13% 23% 24% 19% 19% 18% 12% 19% 15% 20% Anger 16% 13% 19% 14% 20% 23% 13% 10% 17% 16% 16% Fear 9% 7% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 5% 11% 9% 10% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: July 2013
  17. 17. 17Economic Recovery Index Changing Moods II Source: Amárach Research, July 2013 July 2013 TOTAL Tesco Dunne Stores Aldi Lidl Irish Times Irish Indo Irish Daily Mail Irish Exam iner Sky UPC Weighted Sample 1000 356 159 209 158 167 171 70 44 430 273 Enjoyment 58% 57% 63% 60% 50% 62% 69% 55% 71% 61% 56% Happiness 56% 52% 67% 57% 51% 58% 57% 48% 62% 58% 53% Stress 42% 43% 43% 47% 39% 36% 39% 42% 46% 42% 46% Worry 34% 35% 28% 38% 38% 30% 37% 42% 36% 36% 36% Anxiety 31% 34% 29% 31% 28% 24% 30% 41% 24% 30% 36% Boredom 28% 33% 25% 27% 29% 20% 22% 28% 11% 28% 28% Physical Pain 25% 24% 28% 25% 20% 22% 26% 24% 35% 26% 23% Sadness 18% 20% 12% 18% 20% 18% 17% 20% 17% 16% 18% Anger 16% 15% 18% 15% 19% 13% 15% 16% 23% 16% 15% Fear 9% 12% 9% 9% 7% 9% 13% 15% 8% 8% 10% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: July 2013 (by main supermarket/newspaper/TV service)
  18. 18. 18Economic Recovery Index ERI Resources We have created a dedicated resource on the Amárach website for those interested in exploring our Economic Recovery Index further. It includes links to previous issues as well as to a spreadsheet containing monthly values for all the component parts of the ERI – and more besides – going right back to April 2009. There is also a link to a special data visualisation facility we have created in partnership with Delphi Analytics.
  19. 19. Drivers & Drinking About Amárach Amárach Research is an independent market research agency, providing a full range of research services to our Irish and international clients. Amárach specialises in turning information into insight; and insight into foresight. Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and executives manage online, face-to-face and cati surveys (through our call centre); as well as qualitative research including focus groups, in- depths and ethnographic studies. We also delivers a world class field-only service to universities and international agencies. Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered innovative research techniques and reported on Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the 1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding current Irish consumer and business trends, and shares numerous, free reports and presentations via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our main website: www.amarach.com
  20. 20. Trends Report Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairman for a confidential discussion about your needs and to explore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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